-Jim Root
Few things in hoops fandom are more satisfying than identifying an under-the-radar breakout candidate and watching that player blossom into a featured contributor. It takes a blend of talent and newfound opportunity, and the absence of either one can suppress even the most glaring of potential emergences.
I felt like joining the breakout hunt, so I set a completely arbitrary cutoff of “averaged less than 5.0 points per game” and tried to identify guys who could jump into double-figures in 2020-21. Obviously, points per game is an aggressively imperfect measurement of a player’s value, but for simplicity, that’s what we’re using here. I’m also limiting this just to “Power 6” conferences, because I would have been sucked into my excel sheet like the Jumanji kids if I tried to parse through every player that averaged less than 5ppg in all 32 conferences. Aside: I think I’d be part of the 0.1% of people who would watch that movie.
Last year saw 16 players fit that criteria; here they are with their minutes and usage numbers from both seasons, for context:
A couple caveats: Charlie Moore transferred from Kansas to DePaul, so he doesn’t really count. It’s hard to include Kobe King, either, considering he abandoned ship in Madison right before the Badgers became a Big Red Machine. The other 14 guys, though, are exactly what we’re looking for: major conference players who saw a rise in both minutes and opportunity, resulting in a major leap in production from year-to-year.
A total of 211 non-seniors averaged less than 5.0ppg in the Power 6 leagues last year; not all of them are eligible (a lot of transfers, plus Khalil Whitney). Regardless, I went through and picked out the 15 I deemed most likely to repeat the feat in 2021, forcing myself to pick a few rising juniors and a rising senior; sophomore breakouts are more obvious, but as you can see in the 2019-20 data, plenty of juniors and seniors took major jumps themselves. In the graphic below, I put them roughly in order of my confidence they hit that threshold.
Final note: there’s an Honorable Mention at the very bottom of the article, so kindly check that before you skewer me for excluding your guy (but if he’s not there either, skewer away).
Let’s start at the top:
1. Samuell Williamson, Sophomore, Louisville
Williamson is the perfect blend of pedigree and opportunity, making him the obvious choice as the flag-bearer for this group. He flashed plenty of potential last year playing behind the departed group of Jordan Nwora, Dwayne Sutton, Ryan McMahon, and Darius Perry, scoring in a multitude of ways in limited minutes. He clearly deferred often to the team’s more veteran options in his first campaign.
Carlik Jones and David Johnson are both capable table-setters in the backcourt (and deadly bucket-getters in their own right), but Williamson should be the go-to scorer on the wing. The surprise addition of San Francisco grad transfer Charles Minlend is a slight threat to his opportunity, but Williamson oozes talent and should blast off from the freshman-to-sophomore launch pad.
2. RaeQuan Battle, Sophomore, Washington
Battle’s low production in 2019-20 was largely a result of circumstance; the Huskies actually planned to redshirt the consensus top-100 recruit, only letting him see minimal court time through the season’s first two months (three games, 13 total minutes). Unfortunately, Quade Green fell through the academic moon door, and his ineligibility opened up a ton of minutes in Mike Hopkins’ backcourt, resulting in Battle’s redshirt being pulled (as well as that of fellow freshman Marcus Tsohonis).
Battle was up and down during Pac-12 play, peaking with a six-game stretch in the back half of January that saw him average exactly 10.0ppg. However, that coincided with the entire Washington team completely forgetting how to win a basketball game, and in the season’s final four contests, he tallied just 13 minutes, including a DNP-CD in the Huskies’ win at NCAA Tournament-bound Arizona State.
He should enter 2020-21 with a much clearer role in the backcourt, although a possible waiver for Wichita State transfer Erik Stevenson could complicate things somewhat. Green should be back in the lineup to set the table, and the professional departures of Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels opens up a wealth of offensive opportunity to the rest of the Husky roster.
3. Devan Cambridge, Sophomore, Auburn
4. Jamal Johnson, Junior, Auburn
Two players on the same team making this kind of leap feels bold, but hey – Tennessee had it happen last season! The Tigers lose their top six scorers off last year’s roster, opening the gates of opportunity wide. Point guard Sharife Cooper, the jewel of the freshman class, is a sure bet to be the maestro of the revamped attack, but question marks abound beyond that.
Johnson is the steadier of the two here, a perimeter sniper who only needs more opportunities to step into a Bryce Brown Lite role. Cambridge, meanwhile, was a streaky offensive threat whose output should become more consistent in a more secure role this season. His Jekyll-and-Hyde nature was exemplified by a seven-game stretch during SEC play in which he produced the following scoring totals, in order: 26, 0, 0, 0, 0, 21, 10. Put another way: Cambridge made 27 threes all season; 13 of them were in those two 20+ point games. Still, his size and athleticism fit the Bruce Pearl quite well:
Fellow rising sophomore Allen Flanigan is a third clear-cut candidate to meet these criteria; I doubt all three players hit the 10ppg mark, but with Auburn’s tempo, it’s not a ridiculous proposal.
5. Keion Brooks, Sophomore, Kentucky
A quick look at Brooks entering the Kentucky locker room for offseason workouts with his teammates:
Brooks is the only returning Wildcat who played a meaningful minute last year, and though John Calipari brings in a decorated recruiting class, per usual, the “old hand” should see his role grow quite a bit on a team of relative rugrats. Brooks showed flashes down the stretch, particularly in the regular season finale at Florida in which he started, logged 27 minutes, and made key plays down the stretch of a tight win:
The pedigree is definitely there, and the opportunity, well…the door could not possibly be more wide open.
6. RayQuan Evans, Senior, Florida State
Good luck finding another list about any topic at all that features both a RaeQuan and a RayQuan - only at three-man-weave.com!
I challenged myself to find at least one rising senior to make this leap, and Evans was really my only viable candidate. Runners-up were Baylor’s Tristan Clark, an obvious choice except that his legs may not work anymore, and Penn State’s Jamari Wheeler, who treats the basket like your mother tells you to treat the sun: do NOT look straight at it.
That left Evans, FSU’s likely starter at point guard after Detective Bunny Colvin surprisingly did not sniff one out on the grad transfer market. This will likely have to happen via sheer minutes volume, as Evans does not have a score-first (or second or third) mentality, but he’s a typically-big FSU guard who can hit an open shot and use his physicality to get to the rim (and the free throw line). That gives him a fairly decent shot at more than tripling his scoring output if given 27ish minutes per outing.
7. Aaron Wheeler, Redshirt Junior, Purdue
I’m garbage at fantasy football, but I go through the motions every year as a way to stay in touch with friends and give me something to focus on as I sink into my couch on fall Sundays. For this section, I’m going to borrow a fantasy term: the “post-hype sleeper,” meant to apply to someone who underperformed expectations to break out in a season, leaving him undervalued the following year.
That’s Wheeler, who had sky-high expectations entering last season after a tremendous 2018-19 campaign in a limited role. He continued to make plays with his athleticism, but his offensive game collapsed into the void, going from shooting 44.4% from the field and 36.5% from deep as a redshirt freshman to 34.0% and 21.6%, respectively. With receding hairline hero Evan Boudreaux off to the stock trading floor (I assume), Wheeler’s path to big minutes is much clearer, and if he re-discovers his shooting stroke (hey, he was 85% at the free throw line last year!), he can deliver on his considerable physical tools a year later than expected.
8. Christian Koloko, Sophomore, Arizona
The forgotten fourth member of Arizona’s 2019 recruiting class, Koloko is now the only one remaining in Tucson after Zeke Nnaji improbably emerged into the Wildcats’ best player, ahead of the more-heralded Josh Green and Nico Mannion. Koloko took a while to develop, not really emerging as a real piece for the Wildcats until the season’s final eight games. His enormous potential on the glass and as a rim protector crystalized in those games, possibly signifying a major leap with a full offseason under his belt. Unfortunately, he never even hit 10 points in a single contest, but his length and bounce make him an opportunistic offensive rebounder and deadly target in the dunker spot. And if he consistently adds this to his arsenal, look out:
The other risk here is playing time and opportunity: Nevada transfer Jordan Brown has significantly higher pedigree, and although Sean Miller’s abject hatred of floor spacing could lead to Brown and Koloko sharing the court for extended stretches, it could also mean a timeshare at center while senior Ira Lee (another possibility for this category) seizes the power forward spot.
9. Marcus Bingham, Junior, Michigan State
Let’s start here: if Xavier Tillman returns to school, Michigan State’s stable of big men immediately becomes (mostly) irrelevant, save for logging minutes as five-foul props behind him and Joey Hauser. My hunch is that Tillman heads to the professional ranks, though, leaving a vacant paint in East Lansing.
The most likely result is a committee of Bingham, Thomas Kithier, and freshman Mady Sissoko filling the center minutes (with a sprinkle of Malik Hall in smallball looks), with none of them earning a large enough share of the rotation to crack 10 points per game. I’ll bet on Bingham, though, as the former top-70 recruit has now had two years to put on weight and sort out his bricky jumper. His rebounding and shot-blocking prowess along with his experience in Izzo’s system make him unique in that group, giving him the best shot to seize control of the time share, but he’ll need to progress offensively to become an actual weapon on that end.
Bingham has the mobility to excel in Izzo’s system that emphasizes rim-running out of its bigs, and the Spartans (unsuccessfully) tried to stretch his range out beyond the arc last year – that perimeter shot will have to connect at a higher rate than the 17.9% of last season. Of course, he got completely buried to end the 2020 season, so he could just play 15 minutes per game and this will all look idiotic.
10. Tye Fagan, Junior, Georgia
Like Auburn above, the Dawgs need scoring desperately with Anthony Edwards cashing professional checks. Scooping Justin Kier off the grad transfer market was a solid step in the right direction, but internal improvement offers the highest-ceiling outcome for Tom Crean’s squad.
Like the Michigan State situation, I may be choosing poorly here. Former top-70 recruit Christian Brown has significantly better pedigree, and his size + shooting combination is a more appealing package of tools. But Fagan was far more effective last season, and without Tyree Crump, Jordan Harris, and Donnell Gresham, the Bulldogs will need some veteran leadership in the backcourt. Fagan is a smart cutter off the ball and has solid chemistry with PG Sahvir Wheeler:
Plus, he’s a solid weapon getting to the rim in transition, and the Dawgs play with the tempo necessary to (hopefully) push his stats into double figures.
11. Casey Morsell, Sophomore, Virginia
I’m mostly afraid of the UVA fans who would assault my fragile feelings with vicious insults if I excluded Mr. Morsell, so here you go – please be nice!
Really though, Morsell simply cannot continue to shoot like he’s playing blindfolded (17.6% from deep? What the hell is that?). Plus, he’ll be much more comfortable in the system while having more offensive threats surrounding him to open up the floor. Sure, he’ll be fighting for shots with newcomers Sam Hauser and Jabri Abdur-Rahim, and Virginia will likely continue to be the country’s caboose in terms of tempo, but some extra playing time and an elevation to average efficiency should be enough to clear my arbitrary threshold.
12. Antonio Gordon, Sophomore, Kansas State
Following Cartier Diarra’s decision to grad transfer to Virginia Tech, the Wildcats’ top three scorers are gone from an already-disappointing squad, opening a chasm of opportunity for Gordon – and teammates like DaJuan Gordon (6.3ppg), Montavious Murphy (5.2ppg), and Mike McGuirl (6.9ppg). Gordon looked good early in the season, starting seven games in November and December, but his role tailed off following a couple minor injuries early in conference play.
I’d bet on McGuirl and [DaJuan] Gordon to be the Wildcats’ go-to guys, but [Antonio] Gordon has the opportunity to emerge as Bruce Weber’s best frontcourt player.
13. Jarod Lucas, Sophomore, Oregon State
That’s right, Oregon State is still a team that plays in the Pac-12! Crazy, right?
Tres Tinkle (finally) graduating creates a huge scoring void for the Beavers, and Papa Tinkle has precious few options to turn to without his do-it-all son. Ethan Thompson is still around to be the clear alpha, but question marks abound beyond him. Lucas was largely a standstill shooter as a freshman (he had 28 rebounds in the entire season), but he also showed a sneaky knack for getting to the free throw line in such a limited role. He has a quick release, hitting some enormous shots for the Beavers in the Pac-12 Tournament win over Utah:
He’ll need to build on performances like that and a 21-point outburst against an elite Stanford defense, and he’ll receive stiff competition for minutes from highly-ranked JUCO transfer Tariq Silver, but Lucas offers more upside if he can continue to expand his game.
14. Greg Gantt, Sophomore. Providence
Ideally, Gantt slides into the Alpha Diallo role as the skilled combo forward in the Friars’ starting lineup. A former top-70 recruit, Gantt has all kinds of physical ability, but he was mostly buried behind Diallo and Emmitt Holt in his first collegiate season, especially down the stretch as Providence became a supernova fireball, going from NIT bubble to NCAA lock in just over a month.
The primary competition here is North Florida transfer Noah Horchler, who nearly averaged a double-double (16.0ppg, 9.3rpg) for the Ospreys in 2018-19. Horchler also has some nice bounce, and I’m banking on Gantt and Horchler being able to play together for stretches in a more dynamic, mobile frontcourt when Nate Watson hits the bench.
15. Jalyn McCreary, Sophomore, South Carolina
Outside of the now-departed Maik Kotsar, the Gamecock frontcourt was a non-entity on the offensive end, and although the potent backcourt remains, McCreary has a chance to emerge as the Energizer bunny finisher in the frontcourt, a la young Chris Silva (FWIW, Silva went from 5.4ppg as a freshman to 10.2ppg as a sophomore).
McCreary is not Silva, to be clear, but Alanzo Frink found his way into Frank Martin’s doghouse at times (please, please let me never find my way in there), and McCreary flashed enough activity on the offensive glass and finishing ability to stir up optimism for ’20-21. Of course, almost 25% of his offense came via put backs last year, so he’ll need to find other scoring opportunities to complete this leap.
Honorable Mention (not cited above):
Jack Nunge, Iowa (a near-lock if Garza leaves, also an injury asterisk)
Markese Jacobs, DePaul (someone besides Moore has to score – though this is moot if McCauley and/or Freeman-Liberty get waivers)
Taeshon Cherry, Arizona State (great pedigree and could get more minutes with White gone, but ASU’s guards are going to shoot a LOT)
Francisco Farabello, TCU (shots to go around with Bane gone, more experience in American game should help)
Isaiah Ihnen, Minnesota (will he get enough chances? I love his talent)
Kalib Boone, Oklahoma State (how many catch-and-dunks will he and Anei get from Cunningham/Likekele? A lot, I say)
Armaan Franklin, Indiana (I like him a lot, but not sure the shots/minutes are there yet)
Aljaz Kunc, Washington State (Looked good early last year, tailed off severely in Pac-12 play)