- Ky McKeon

Merrimack took the nation by storm this past season, notching a 20-11 overall record and NEC regular season title in just its first year in Division I. This success sparked my interest in how past newbies to the DI ranks have fared in recent history. Can Dixie State, Tarleton State, UC San Diego, and Bellarmine repeat the Warriors’ brilliance in 2020-21?

Overall

Since 2005, 30 teams have made the leap from Division II to Division I. Some of these teams were DI returners, like 1958 DI National Runner-Up Seattle, and some were brand spankin’ new to the whole shebang. Of these 30 teams, only 10 have punched a bid to an NCAA Tournament; however, Merrimack, Cal Baptist, and North Alabama are not yet eligible to do so.

Unsurprisingly, the transition to the big leagues for these teams overall has been a bumpy one, as it can take years for programs to shed their DII reputation and fully integrate into the higher-level competition. Combined, these 30 teams are just 4394-5782 (43.2%) overall and 2058-2497 (45.2%) in conference play. Of course, that hasn’t stopped Vegas from lining these teams perfectly over the past 16 seasons, as their ATS record is a steady 1977-1953-66 (50.3%).

Also unsurprisingly, the overall record of these 30 teams over 16 seasons is better than their collective Year 1 records. In “Year 1”, the “First Year 30” are just 334-557 (37.5%) overall and 118-152 (43.7%) in conference play. The best Year 1 season from a record perspective was not Merrimack, but rather Incarnate Word, who amassed a 21-6 (77.8%) record in 2014 before crumbling into shambles the past six years. South Dakota’s 2010 22-10 (68.8%) mark ranks second. Longwood’s 2005 season in which it went just 1-30 (3.2%) overall, claims the honor of worst first season since 2005.

Against the Spread

Against the spread, Cal Baptist has led the charge over its first two seasons in DI, racking up a 31-20-1 record (60.8%), narrowly edging Merrimack’s 18-12 (60%) mark. The best single season by a First Year 30 squad since 2005 was achieved by Northern Kentucky in 2018 when the Norse went 21-9-1 (70%) ATS, though John Brannen’s squad had already been in DI for a few years. Kennesaw State has been the worst ATS squad, going 37-56 (39.8%) since 2006.

It’s worth noting that many of these new teams joined conferences that did not have regularly lined games until very recently, so data is limited in those particular cases.

Analytical Performance

Overall record isn’t the best way to judge how good a team is in a given year, hence why we at the Weave love analytical sites such as KenPom. Since 2005, the best First Year 30 program has been North Dakota State, who has averaged an adjusted efficiency margin (Adj. EM) of 2.86 (ranks around 140 in a given year, give or take). No other program has an average Adj. EM over zero. Merrimack improved its preseason KenPom rank in 2020 by 5.29 points on the 2020 Adj. EM scale, which is the third highest improvement since 2012 (when KenPom started tracking preseason ranks) behind 2016 UT Rio Grande Valley (6.98 improvement) and 2012 Omaha (8.96 improvement).

From a single-season perspective, 2014 North Dakota State has the best KenPom finish at an Adj. EM of 12.58 (61st overall), while somehow this year’s Kennesaw State squad wasn’t the worst of the First Year 30 squads since 2005 – that honor lies with 2009 NJIT who notched an Adj. EM of -35.2 (344th overall – dead last in the country).

Postseason Achievement

As I mentioned above, only ten teams have made the NCAA Tournament of this group of 30 since 2005. NC Central and North Dakota State have each been there four times, Florida Gulf Coast has been there thrice, and Northern Kentucky has reached the Dance twice. FGCU is the only squad who has made it past the first weekend, earning a Sweet Sixteen berth in 2013 as a 15-seed.

12 squads have won their conference’s regular season championship, Merrimack (2020) and South Dakota (2010 GWC, 2017 Summit) have yet to see the Promised Land.  

Sortable Data

Notes:

The following teams started playing conference games after their first season in Division I: Longwood, NC Central, Houston Baptist, Presbyterian, Northern Colorado, UC Davis, Cal State Bakersfield, Seattle, North Dakota State, Utah Valley

The following teams were formerly in Division I prior to 2005. Their records have been excluded from the below: NC Central, Houston Baptist, North Dakota, Northern Colorado, UMass Lowell, Seattle, North Dakota State