-Jim Root
(1) Gonzaga v. (11) UCLA
Initial Thoughts: Ok, so we have 50% what we definitely thought would happen, and 50% a completely stunning outcome. Sure, I suppose that’s fun – except that a 14-point spread in the Final Four does not portend a great game coming (famous last words).
Gonzaga has been Thanos all year, hammering opponents with the kind of ruthless inevitability that would make the purple titan proud. You know all the surface facts: undefeated, won every game by double-digits except one, best Adjusted Efficiency Margin in the history of KenPom.com. So the question is: can UCLA be Tony Stark?!
In all of our pre-tournament discussions, I was fairly insistent that the East would be a mess (a “chaos region,” if you will), and that would be the quadrant where a surprising Final Four team emerged. I did not, however, have any inkling that it would be UCLA, rather than LSU or BYU or UConn or Saint Bonaventure, etc.
The Bruins scraped by Michigan State in the First Four, destroyed BYU and Abilene Christian, and then escaped against the region’s top two seeds, Alabama and Michigan, with some help from horrendous shooting by their opponents (more on that later).
Gonzaga on Offense: Good! Really, really, really good! The Zags are the best offense in the country, and it’s not particularly close. They’re a devastating flurry of cutting and precise passing, often with five players capable of making plays with and without the ball. Jalen Suggs, Andrew Nembhard, and Joel Ayayi are all terrific creators, and the attention that Corey Kispert’s deadeye shooting demands allows everyone else to play four-on-four. Even with such elite pieces, though, the offense is still somehow greater than the sum of its parts thanks to the joy each player finds in making the right cut, the right screen, the right pass, etc.
The mega-talented stable of guards orbits around Drew Timme, the swaggerific big man with a ‘stache who has taken the tournament by storm with his fancy-but-fundamental footwork, silky touch inside, and pre-planned celebrations to go with each of his wide array of moves.
That last part is the key here: UCLA’s Cody Riley and Kenneth Nwuba just stonewalled Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson in the post in the Elite Eight, but Dickinson’s post game lacks variety. Timme, on the other hand, will put you in the blender (and tell you about it after with a spin of his finger):
He doesn’t score there, but that only accentuates another key element of his game: his passing. He loves to hit cutters when the defense gets caught looking at him, and the rest of the Gonzaga roster is more than happy to oblige:
Mick Cronin will certainly hope that Riley and Nwuba can hold up in one-on-one coverage again, but considering that Timme routinely took top-3 NBA Draft pick and human pogo stick Evan Mobley to school, that strategy has its own scary components.
UCLA’s defense has carried it to this point, though as mentioned, it has benefited from outstanding shooting luck over its past two contests, with Alabama and Michigan shooting a combined 10-for-39 (25.6%) from beyond the arc. Some of that 3P shooting defense can be attributed to UCLA’s length and intensity on defense, but that does not explain the abysmal free throw display from both the Tide and the Wolverines, who combined to go 17-for-36 (47.2%) from the stripe – often with strong shooters just melting down in key spots. UCLA will need every bit of that good fortune and more to hang with the Zags’ offensive juggernaut.
UCLA on Offense: The Bruins have had some major droughts offensively this tournament, but they always seem to make up for it with one or two torrid stretches of shot-making. I joked about it on Twitter last night, but these numbers are actually more comical when you look at them closely:
At the 9:30 mark in the first half against Michigan, UCLA had just four points. Over the next 14 possessions, UCLA ripped off 23 points, an impressive 1.64 points per possession tally.
It was even more absurd against Alabama, though. With 11:50 left in the half, the Bruins had only seven points, but for the rest of the half (18 possessions), UCLA absolutely torched the Tide for 33 points as Jules Bernard morphed into Te Ka (that’s the lava monster from Moana – sorry, I just watched it recently). For those waiting for me to do the math, that’s an absolutely ridiculous 1.83 PPP over an extended stretch.
It’s also worth noting that UCLA put up 12 points on its first six possessions in overtime against Alabama (2.00 PPP), burying the Tide before final minute and rendering final minute theatrics irrelevant.
Against Michigan, the star was Johnny Juzang, as he hit tough shot after tough shot to stake the Bruins to a narrow halftime lead:
Michigan threw multiple defenders at him, but it just did not matter. Gonzaga will likely rotate different guys on him as well: Kispert has the strength to push him around, Ayayi and Nembhard have the length to challenge all of his shots, and Suggs is the Bulldogs’ quickest defender and can be torturous to dribble against:
Suggs may have to lock up Tyger Campbell, though. Campbell is the Bruins’ floor general, a shifty and heady lead guard who has amassed 20 assists to just six turnovers over 155 minutes in the Bruins’ five-game NCAA run. The Bruins feed of his steadiness, often allowing him to attack out of ball screens or isolation to force defenses to rotate and open up everyone else.
Riley has also been a weapon on the block, using his own patience and strength to carve out space to score:
The block battle between him and Timme will be a delight.
Key Factor(s): Tempo, tempo, tempo. UCLA will do everything it can to force this one into the half court, and Campbell’s intelligence and ball security will be crucial to that. Gonzaga thrived early against USC via steals and the resulting transition opportunities, and Campbell will have a huge responsibility to avoid similar mishaps – easier said than done when hounded by Suggs.
Additionally, the UCLA shot selection will be critical. The Bruins have hit some really tough shots (particularly long twos) in the past couple of rounds, but misses and long rebounds are fuel to the Gonzaga fast break fire. If the Bulldogs are able to play in the open court, they become even more devastating, so UCLA needs to slam the brakes at every opportunity and take its chances in a half court slug fest, very similar to what it did against Michigan on Tuesday.
Final Prediction: As impressive as UCLA’s run has been, I think it runs into the proverbial wall against Gonzaga’s unavoidable might. Gonzaga’s offense has too many weapons and ball-handlers for UCLA to slow down, and the Zags have shown the ability to force anyone and everyone to run at least somewhat: even Virginia and Saint Mary’s (2x), who would love the game to be 60 or fewer possessions against a team like Gonzaga, were forced to play games of 69, 67, and 71 possessions this year.
Plus, the unsung hero that is Gonzaga’s defense should play a pivotal role. Quietly, Creighton (0.89) and USC (0.92) scored under 1.0 PPP against this defense, and both of those teams had terrific offenses all season long.
I don’t have much of a sense on the total, but I do think Gonzaga wins by 17+ in this one. The similarities to 2018 Villanova are plenty, and my sense of “don’t get cute and bet against this machine” is in that category. The Zags are simply too good on both ends.