-Matt Cox
Key Returners: Everyone
Key Losses: None (apologies PJ Byrd)
Key Newcomers: Chandler Jacobs
Lineup:
Outlook: Niko Medved remembers the ‘aha’ moment vividly. It struck during the fetal stages of his coaching career, during his first stint as a D-I assistant at Furman (1999-2006). The Paladins weren’t the mid-major mini wagon they are today - Medved himself would lead that transformation nearly a decade later – when they squared off against Kyle Korver and the prolific Creighton Blue Jays in a forgettable early November non-conference tourney tilt, circa 2002.
Predictably, the Jays ran circles around Furman that day. The poor Paladins were left licking their wounds in the aftermath of a 82-57 beatdown, but, for Medved, that was the inception of everything. As told on the Mind of Miles podcast at Field of 68, Medved remembers being awestruck by the offense Dana Altman was pioneering at the time:
“I watched them play and was just immediately fascinated. I’m like, I love the way these guys play and what Dana was doing at that time. I had that vision. I thought, I could see this. I thought it was so difficult to guard, I thought it was unique, and I thought there was a way you could recruit to that.”
It was that epiphany that charted Medved’s course from pupil to boss. Medved became obsessed with mastering the interworkings of Altman’s spread style offense, even consulting the all-knowing John Beilein to refine his own offensive model.
By the time Medved boomeranged back to Furman for the big boss job, his offensive playbook was fine tuned. Though his spread offense remains under continuous evolution – today, he uses a 2-guard front with a myriad of Princeton style cutting sequences – winning has remained a constant. Buoyed by a decorated lineup of Hall of Fame coaches, the standard for success in Fort Collins is lofty.
Stew Morrill. Ritchie McKay. Larry Eustachy. Tim Miles. Niko Medved?
Medved’s inclusion in that list is far from preposterous. If this torrid rate of winning and rapid improvement continues, he’ll soon have his face cemented on the Colorado State basketball Mount Rushmore. And as the recipient of not one but two contract extensions over the last twelve months, Medved’s got plenty of runway to get there…
But now’s no time to exhale. The Rams have a chance to strike while the iron is hot, armed with a copy/paste roster from last year, tailor-made for Medved’s system. It’s not an intimidating roster by any stretch, though. The Rams ranked 317th in KenPom’s ‘average height’ metric a year ago, limited by two mini-maestros in the backcourt (Isaiah Stevens and Kendle Moore) and a 6’5 swiss army knife as the frontcourt anchor (David Roddy).
Speed, shooting and smarts offset this lack of size on the offensive end. Roddy is a unicorn in this regard. Think ‘Draymond Green lite.’ The 6’5 forward doubles as a lead initiator, capable of leading the fast break as a one-man band off a rebound or serving as a deadly trigger man in the half-court. Roddy’s rise to stardom was born in last year’s improbable comeback win over San Diego State on January 2nd, when his diverse offensive repertoire confounded one of the best 25 defenses in America. His wide frame and elongated reach allow him to score over longer defenders, coupled with his mastery of angles and footwork.
Above all, Roddy’s a pristine passer and lethal ignition switch for the Rams’ highly efficient transition attack:
Stevens and Moore set the tone on the perimeter, a pair of shot makers and shot creators rolled in to one dynamic duo. Stevens’ sophomore leap was inevitable last season while Moore retained his steady floor play as the quasi off-guard. Adam Thistlewood is the glue, a prototypical 3-and-D wing and perennial fan favorite. His versatility is rivaled only by fellow swingman, John Tonje, the Rams’ energy dynamite stick off the bench.
Joining those usual cast of characters this year is D-II All-American Chandler Jacobs. The Texas head coaching musical chairs opened the door for Medved and his staff to pounce on the D-II standout, who initially committed to Texas Tech earlier this spring. The 6’3 Jacobs will inject a third playmaker on the perimeter and his plus positional size is a bonus for a relatively small backcourt. If not for Moore, Stevens and Thistlewood’s established track records, Jacobs would be a shoo-in starter.
With such a stout perimeter corps intact, plus Roddy, there’s little doubt as to whether or not the Rams will score efficiently. Hopes of the coveted at-large tourney bid hinges on the defensive side of the ball, where the Rams made significant strides last season – at least, on paper…
Two years removed from a horrid defensive effort in Medved’s initial season, the Rams checked in with a fringe top-75 defense last season. This jump was largely expected, though, since categorical improvements on defense typically come as a collective unit. It takes time to embed key principles and proper positioning into a young team but that process is always hampered by significant roster turnover – such was not the case last year.
While that program continuity fueled positive momentum, it’s necessary to point out the lurking infection last season: luck. The Rams were one of the biggest beneficiaries of opponent shooting luck (or as I call it, the variance monster). Opponents converted a dismal 64% from the charity stripe against the Rams and couldn’t buy an open three if their life depended upon it (31% for the year). Those opponent FG% splits ranked 3rd and 37th, respectively, on the national scale. While the Rams are an outstanding free throw shooting team, it’s unlikely they shoot 16% better from the charity stripe than their opposition for an entire season again.
Yet even in the face of adverse regression, the Rams’ two primary paint patrollers are still scratching the surface of their potential. Rising sophomore James Moors was extremely effective in his rookie season, while Dischon Thomas emerged as an integral cog in the Rams’ NIT run.
Still, it’s Roddy who makes all the difference.
Proof of Roddy’s defensive wizardry is exemplified in Medved’s super small lineups, which slots the 6’5 Roddy at the 5 without either Thomas or Moors on the floor. The advanced on / off splits below is not intended to shine a damning light on Moors or Thomas, both of whom are bound for big leaps in 2022 – rather, it’s an ode to Roddy’s amazing ability to be the spine of the Rams’ defense without any supporting size next to him:
Here’s Roddy at his best, anchoring the Rams’ defense off an in-bounds play. Undeterred by the near steal off his own initial deflection, Roddy remarkably recovers for the swat at the last second:
Despite limited opportunities to strut his stuff in primetime (such is life in the Mountain West), Roddy has invaded the short list of 2022 All-American candidates. There’s not a player in America like him, and few teams boast a guy who dictates more than Roddy does on both sides of the ball.
Bottom Line: I mean, what's not to love here. Sure, the Rams are a little undersized. And yes, that opponent shooting regression momentum is ominous. But, in the grand scheme, those are only minor blips on the Rams’ radar. The boy wonder Medved now ushers in a seasoned nucleus ready for revenge in the wake of last year’s gut-wrenching exclusion from the big dance.