- Ky McKeon
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Grant Riller, R Sr., Charleston
Coach of the Year: Earl Grant, Charleston
Newcomer of the Year: Marcus Sheffield, R Sr., Elon
Freshman of the Year: Tyson Walker, Fr., Northeastern
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. Charleston
Key Returners: Grant Riller, Brevin Galloway, Jaylen McManus, Zep Jasper, Jaylen Richard, Sam Miller
Key Losses: Jarrell Brantley, Nick Harris, Marquise Pointer
Key Newcomers: Brenden Tucker, Trevon Reddish, DeAngelo Epps, Dontavious King
Lineup:
Outlook: Earl Grant continued his impressive run at Charleston last season, finishing in the CAA top three for the third straight year. Grant’s squad scored some major victories in the non-conference slate, including over Memphis on a neutral and at VCU, but suffered a couple head-scratching Colonial losses. The Cougars have gone 75-24 (40-14) over the past three seasons, improving offensively in each year while maintaining a stout defense on the other end. In 2019-20, Charleston figures to be the heavy favorite in a relatively down conference.
It’s easy to be good offensively when you have a player like Grant Riller running your offense.
The 6’3” senior is an absolute scoring machine and one of only two members of the 2018-19 All-CAA First Team returning this season. The Cougars’ offense is a methodical, halfcourt attack that often results in late clock shots from their stud PG. Riller likes to work out of isolation or off ball screens to put up buckets from outside the arc, near the rim, and everywhere in between. Perhaps the most insane individual statistic of last season was Riller’s efficiency off the pick-n-roll. Among all players with over four possessions per game used in the pick-n-roll, Riller ranked #1 (by a decent margin) in points per possession:
Expect Riller to once again have one of the highest usage rates in the country; with Jarell Brantley gone, he could easily average 25 PPG.
The scoring part is obvious, but an underrated impact Riller has on the floor is his ability to protect the rock. He turned in an extremely low turnover rate last season for his usage, pacing the Cougars’ 19th best TO rate in the country. Riller will do most of the ball handling, but his two returning partners in crime, Brevin Galloway and Zep Jasper, are also sure-handed with the basketball. Galloway is just 6’2”, but he’ll likely see the lion’s share of the minutes at the 3-spot with his ability to guard bigger wings. He’s mostly a shooter on offense, benefiting from spot-up opportunities created by Riller’s penetration. Similarly, Jasper functions perfectly on the wing on offense, knocking down 38.8% of his 85 threes last season, of which 94.4% were assisted. Both Galloway and Jasper know their roles on offense alongside a ball dominant scorer on the floor in Riller.
Grant likely won’t take Riller off the floor much in 2019-20, but he’ll have some firepower off the bench to spell Galloway and Jasper. 6’4” wing Jaylen Richard can contribute on both ends of the floor and freshmen Brenden Tucker and Trevon Reddish will look to carve out some playing time in their first seasons on campus. Tucker is the newcomer to watch here; he’s a borderline 4-star recruit who passed on offers from Power 6 schools to play for Earl Grant. His scoring ability, unbelievable quickness, and explosiveness suggests he might be the next great Cougar guard, picking up the mantle passed down by Joe Chealey and, next season, Grant Riller. Reddish will be especially disruptive on the defensive end where his length gives him the ability to guard multiple perimeter spots.
Charleston’s defense was the 3rd best in the CAA last season per KenPom but it was the 2nd worst in Grant’s head coaching career. The Cougars play a high-pressure, physical brand of defense, which makes playing on the perimeter and finding open three-point looks a living nightmare. Additionally, Grant squads are always elite at stopping transition opportunities. However, Charleston has been very weak defending the rim the past couple years, ranking dead last in the CAA in 2P% defense and 295th in the country in FG% near the rim in 2018-19. Brantley and Nick Harris’s graduation this offseason could make the interior defense situation even more dire, as returners Sam Miller and Jaylen McManus aren’t exactly stout rim defenders.
Both McManus and Miller like to stretch the floor on offense and both are relatively decent at cleaning the glass. However, questions lie in their ability to protect the rim or stop frontcourts in the post – when this team plays against William & Mary’s Nathan Knight, look out. Grant will need to turn to seldom-used Osinachi Smart and freshmen DeAngelo Epps and Dontavious King to help bolster his frontline. Epps is undersized to play the 4, but his athleticism could make up for his lack of height. King could see major minutes in his freshman season with his physicality, defensive versatility, and ability to shoot on the offensive end.
Bottom Line: Nearly every CAA squad loses their best player (or two) from a season ago, but the Cougars should be in good shape riding their star point guard, Grant Riller. Charleston is a lock to finish in the top three of the conference standings and the early favorite to represent the Colonial in the Big Dance. If Grant can sure up his interior defense, the Cougars could win a game in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1997.
2. Northeastern
Key Returners: Jordan Roland, Tomas Murphy, Bolden Brace, Jason Strong, Myles Franklin, Maxime Boursiquot
Key Losses: Vasa Pusica, Shawn Occeus, Donnell Gresham, Anthony Green, Jeremy Miller
Key Newcomers: Greg Eboigbodin (Illinois), Guilien Smith (Dartmouth), Connor Braun, Vito Cubrilo, Tyson Walker, Quirin Emanga
Lineup:
Outlook: Northeastern battled through a variety of injuries last season and rode a 15-2 run down the stretch to capture the CAA auto-bid and the school’s second NCAA Tournament appearance in five years. Legendary head coach Bill Coen once again proved he is one of the elite mid-major coaches in the country, keeping the Huskies atop the league standings despite the health issues. Coen is known for adapting his style to his personnel, shifting the makeup of his lineups and goals offensively to fit his talent. In 2015, the Huskies ran offense through big man Scott Eatherton, more or less ignoring the three-ball. The past four seasons, Northeastern has employed a 4-out, gunning halfcourt attack, one that should continue in 2019-20.
Bill Coen’s motion offense is one of the purest spectacles in college basketball. Every player on the floor is in constant motion: passing, screening, and cutting in an effort to free-up an open look (often from the perimeter).
While the ball screen is set, the baseline guard clears, allowing space for the roll. Tomas Murphy (33) meanwhile flairs to the wing to freeze his defender at the elbow.
Bolden Brace (20) sets a ball screen and then catches off the pop while the weak-side guard sets a backscreen for Jordan Roland (12), occupying the defense. A ball fake and patience by Brace leads to an open layup on the block.
This year’s Huskies are a guard-heavy team with multiple forwards who can stretch the floor, so the three-point shot will once again be the central focus of the offense. The past four years, Northeastern has ranked within the top 30 nationally in 3PA rate and Coen’s squads are often within the top 50 nationally in assist rate. To boot, this team doesn’t just shoot threes – it makes them. Last year, the Huskies ranked 18th in 3P%, which fueled their 5th ranked eFG%. With three guys returning who shot over 40% from deep in 2018-19, Northeastern should be just as deadly from deep this season.
Defensively, Northeastern’s goal also revolves around the three-point line. The Huskies are consistently one of the best teams in the nation at disallowing three-point attempts, a good strategy in a conference that tends to take a lot of threes. This focus on the perimeter combined with Northeastern’s lack of size last year resulted in the Huskies’ giving up easy looks in the paint. Still, Coen’s emphasis on stopping “3” instead of “2” contributed to Northeastern’s #1 conference defensive rank, and (as always) his team was extremely good on the defensive glass (yet another sign of superior coaching). Despite the loss of Shawn Occeus, among other perimeter stoppers, Northeastern’s defense should remain stout in 2019-20, especially in the CAA world.
One of the main reasons Northeastern has seemed to fly under the radar the past few years is its non-reliance on “star power”. Vasa Pusica was clearly the Huskies’ best player in 2018-19, but he was by no means a dominant scorer and received plenty of help from his supporting cast on a nightly basis. Coen’s style is very much “team over individual”, which can lead to many underrating just how good this squad is capable of being. Jordan Roland will be the “alpha” this season, the lone returning All-Conference performer and returning leading scorer. Roland exceled in his first season after coming over from George Washington, taking on a starting role and providing three-point shooting on the wing. The 6’1” senior is one of the best shooters in the country, hitting 40.2% of his 246 three-point attempts and shooting 54.8% from 2 and 90% from the foul line in 2018-19. He’ll pitch in with the ball handling effort this season, but will mostly function as a spot-up shooting threat.
Roland, like Pusica last year, will have plenty of help in the backcourt this season. Wings Bolden Brace and Maxime Boursiquot return to add more shooting, while Dartmouth transfer Guilien Smith and freshmen Vito Cubrilo and Tyson Walker aim to support ball handling duties. Returners Myles Franklin and Shaquille Waters likely resume wing reserve roles off the bench. Brace knocked down 41.3% of his three-point attempts last year, ranked 3rd on the team in assists, and 1st in rebounds. He’ll be one of Coen’s most important players in 2019-20 as he enters his final collegiate season. Boursiquot returns after missing 2018-19 with a hip injury. He started 31 games as a sophomore and adds versatility on both ends of the floor. If Coen feels his frontcourt isn’t up to the task, Brace and/or Boursiquot could see minutes at the “4” in Northeastern’s spread attack.
If Roland doesn’t assume ball-handling duties, Smith likely earns some starts at the point. The Dartmouth transfer has been marred by injuries the past two seasons, but he started every game for the Big Green as a sophomore in 2016-17, averaging 12.0 PPG / 3.5 RPG / 1.8 APG. Cubrilo or Walker could also earn big-time minutes in the backcourt in their first years in Boston. Cubrilo is a big point guard out of Croatia reminiscent of Pusica; he’s highly skilled and has already proven the ability to run an offense. Walker, a 3-star recruit in some places, has a ridiculous handle and quick hands on defense. His combination speed and shooting will work well in the confines of Coen’s offense and word is he’s being tabbed to be the early season starter at the point position.
Coen adds some beef up front this season with Illinois transfer Greg Egboidbodin. He’s really the only frontcourt player on the roster who qualifies as a pure paint-bound big man, which will add nice contrast to a roster of mostly perimeter players. Defensively, Egboidbodin will help sure-up the rim protection, an area of weakness for the Huskies the past several years. Junior forward Tomas Murphy will start at either the 4 or 5 in what will hopefully finally be his breakout season. Murphy was a highly regarded recruit coming to Northeastern a few seasons ago but has yet to realize his full potential, some of which is due to nagging injury trouble. Murphy is a skilled forward who can score in the post or from outside the arc; his usage should increase this season as he assumes a larger offensive role.
Redshirt sophomore Jason Strong and freshman Connor Braun round out the official frontcourt rotation, but freshman Quirin Emanga has the size to earn minutes at the 4 as well. Strong is mostly a spot-up, stretch 4 type of forward offensively, offering little in the rebounding and post defense departments in his limited action. Braun could contribute immediately with his ability to put the ball on the floor and score on the block. From a size perspective alone, we should expect to see Braun in at least a rotational role off the pine. Emanga can play the 2, 3, or 4 with his 7-foot wingspan and projects as a defensive nightmare for opposing ball handlers. His offense is still developing, but he should be able to make a key impact on defense on day one.
Bottom Line: Charleston might be the favorite in the CAA this season, but it would be foolish to write-off Coen’s ability to coach the Huskies to another Colonial championship and NCAA Tourney auto-bid. Northeastern will once again be one of the better mid-majors in the country, a well-disciplined, well-coached team capable of taking down Power 6 opponents in the non-conference slate and postseason play.
Tier 2
3. Hofstra
Key Returners: Eli Pemberton, Desure Buie, Tareq Coburn, Jalen Ray, Stafford Trueheart
Key Losses: Justin Wright-Foreman, Jacquil Taylor, Dan Dwyer
Key Newcomers: Omar Silverio (Rhode Island), Isaac Kante (Georgia), Hal Hughes (Redshirt), Caleb Burgess, K’Vonn Cramer, Jermaine Miranda, Carl Gibson Jr.
Lineup:
Outlook: Hofstra enjoyed its best season in the Joe Mihalich era last year, winning the CAA outright and tallying an impressive 27-8 overall record. Unfortunately, the Pride couldn’t punch a ticket to the Big Dance despite having the 17th best offense in the country (per KenPom) and one of the best players ever to put on a uniform in the Colonial. Now, Justin Wright-Foreman, the two-time CAA Player of the Year, is gone, taking with him the lion’s share of Hofstra’s offensive production and playmaking. Mihalich will need to adjust to life without a near-guaranteed bucket in his backcourt; a slew of talented returners will help ease the transition.
The Pride scored a ridiculous 1.21 PPP when Wright-Foreman was on the floor, a number essentially unmatched across the country. Without the stud guard, Hofstra’s efficiency fell to a good-not-great 1.07 PPP. Milhalich built his offense off JWF’s playmaking, sending him off ball screens and allowing him to work off the bounce and hit open shooters. With a gaggle of sharpshooters surrounding a transcendent playmaker, the Pride were nearly unstoppable on the offensive end. This season, Mihalich will turn to Eli Pemberton and Desure Buie to shoulder the offensive load. “Pemba,” a 2nd Team All-CAA member last season, has been one of the most efficient players in the league the past three seasons, but how much of that was due to JWF? He will need to prove he can thrive as the number one option; his versatility and ability to score from everywhere on the floor should allow him to do so. Buie runs point for the Pride and ranked 4th in the CAA last season in assist rate while maintaining a miniscule turnover rate. He’s best known for his defensive abilities, earning the CAA DPOY award and leading the league in steals, but Buie is a capable offensive player who likes to attack the basket and get to the FT line where he converts around 90% of his tries.
Flanking Buie and Pemberton will be guards Tareq Coburn and Jalen Ray. Both players shot 40%+ from deep last year, providing the perfect spot-up options to support Buie and Pemba’s shot creation. Coburn plays the de facto 4-man role in Mihalich’s 4-out offense while Ray, a lanky junior, will look to step into the open 2-guard starting spot. Mihalich consistently keeps one of the shorter benches in the nation but Rhode Island transfer Omar Silverio and freshmen Caleb Burgess, Jermaine Miranda, and Carl Gibson Jr. could play important roles off the pine. Silverio has good size on the wing, can handle the ball, and shoot from the outside. Burgess is a pass-first lead guard while Miranda is a combo guard capable of creating his own shot. Gibson is a high-scoring comb guard who can fill minutes at the point behind Buie.
Hofstra generally ignored the post on offense last season, a trend that likely continues this season. Stafford Trueheart will start at the 5, providing shot blocking on the defensive end and spacing on the offensive. He’s yet to prove to be an effective rebounder, a microcosm of something that could plague the Pride all season. Georgia transfer Isaac Kante may be able to provide more rebounding after not seeing much opportunity in Athens. Australian redshirt freshman Hal Hughes will be a minor rotational piece, while K’Vonn Cramer will look to bounce back from an ACL injury that cost him his final two high school seasons. 6’9” redshirt sophomore Kevin Schutte may also be forced into some run in 2019-20. Overall, this Hofstra frontcourt is weak – the Pride won’t get much help offensively from its forwards, nor will it see an improvement on the interior defensively.
Hofstra’s lack of size last season was one of the main factors in Mihalich’s decision to ramp up the zone play. The Pride ranked 6th in the country in percentage of possessions played in zone, checking in at 84%. Buie harassed defenders on the perimeter and Mihalich occasionally extended pressure past half-court, ultimately settling in a 2-3 look. Defensive rebounding will likely be a weakness of the Pride this season, but they should have enough size and quickness on the perimeter to stay competitive on this end of the floor.
Bottom Line: Look for Hofstra to once again be one of the best offenses in the CAA this season, but the Pride won’t touch their 17th-best offense mark of 2018-19. Wright-Foreman was a once-in-a-decade type of player, one who won’t be easily replaced. Pemberton and Buie will both compete for First Team All-CAA spots, but it’s tough to see the Pride being able to overcome the likes of Northeastern and Charleston to punch the school’s first bid to the NCAA Tournament since 2001.
4. Towson
Key Returners: Brian Fobbs, Tobias Howard, Nayke Sanders, Nick Timberlake, Allen Betrand, Jakigh Dottin, Solomon Uyaelunmo, Dennis Tunstall
Key Losses: Jordan McNeil, Alex Thomas
Key Newcomers: Juwan Gray (San Diego), Jason Gibson, Charles Thompson
Lineup:
Outlook: 2018-19 was a season to forget in Towson, MD. The Tigers suffered through their worst year in the Pat Skerry era since the head coach took over the program in 2011-12, limping to a 10-22 (6-12) record. Towson faced extreme turnover from 2017-18, losing four key seniors to graduation and two underclassmen to transfer, one of which was leading scorer and burgeoning star Zane Martin. Skerry was forced to rely on a brand-new group made up mostly of transfers and freshmen, which resulted in a losing season. Now the script is flipped – Towson returns 82.2% of its minutes from last year (29th nationally) and looks to be in prime position to compete near the top of a depleted conference.
For those not familiar with “Pat Skerry ball”, I’ll give a quick summary: 1) Get the ball to the basket; 2) Attack the glass with a fervor; 3) Play extremely physical basketball. The Tigers executed some of Skerry’s famous style of play last season, ranking 17th in the country in OR%, but exhibited poor shot selection (i.e. attempting more 2P jumpers vs. shots near the rim) and a lack of normally jacked-up physicality. Last year, Towson ranked 299th in the country in FT rate, a staggeringly low rank for a Skerry squad – past squads have ranked 112th, 4th, 11th, 3rd, 5th, 64th, and 60th. Brian Fobbs and Tobias Howard were the only reliable outside shooters on the roster last season, and Skerry ran them off ball screens just about every possession down the floor. That basic offensive game plan – screen for Fobbs / Howard and crash the glass – should be in place once again this season.
Fobbs ranked 5th in the CAA in scoring last year, earning him a spot on the league’s All-Conference 2nd Team. Towson ranked dead last in the league in 2P% and 3P%, but Fobbs was the exception to the rule, pouring in 50.4% of his twos and 36.8% of his threes. Opposing squads had fits stopping the lefty’s quick pull-up off ball screens, and Fobbs was also one of the best rebounding guards in the CAA. This season expect Fobbs to rank in the conference top five in usage and flirt with 20 PPG.
Fobbs will occupy either the 2 or 3-spot in Skerry’s starting five. Point guard duties will be handed to either Tobias Howard or Jakigh Dottin. Howard, a former WKU and JUCO player, shot the ball well from deep but struggled finding efficient looks inside the arc. He was moved to the bench down the stretch in favor of Dottin, who handled the ball better than Howard but offered nothing in the realm of outside shooting. I’d expect to see Skerry start with Howard at the beginning of the season from a sheer point-scoring standpoint, but either PG can work out of the PnR and both will see plenty of playing time in 2019-20.
Skerry’s backcourt depth is quite thin, but Fobbs will rarely leave the floor. One of either San Diego transfer Juwan Gray, or sophomores Allen Betrand or Nick Timberlake will occupy the third perimeter starting spot alongside Fobbs and Howard. Gray can play either the 3 or 4 and can space the floor offensively while providing solid defense on the other end of the floor. Skerry rarely has a player like Gray, a long, athletic wing who can guard multiple positions and play inside or out on the offensive end. Betrand didn’t make much of an impact his freshman season but certainly improved late in the year. With a limited backcourt rotation, he’ll carve out a role. Timberlake played just eight games last season due to injury but started the first four of 2018-19. He’ll add more shooting to a squad in dire need. Freshman PG Jason Gibson may also see a few courtesy minutes despite not having the ideal size of a DI guard. He’s a lights-out shooter and skilled passer who brings something new to Towson’s table.
As is the normal tradition at Towson, the Tigers are deep in the frontcourt where Skerry has several physical bodies he can throw at the glass and defend the paint. CAA All-Defense team member Dennis Tunstall will likely start at the 5 after turning in one of the best O-ratings in the conference last season. Tunstall is an ultimate “know-your-role” guy, a big man who cleans the glass, blocks shots, and scores inside when called upon. Nayke Sanders, the likely starting 4-man, continued his collegiate dominance on the glass in his first season since coming over from Duquesne. He posted the 4th best block rate in the CAA last year and boosted his FT% from 45.5% in 2017-18 to 69.7% last season. Solomon Uyaelunmo, whose brother, Victor, just joined the team this offseason from USC, is another big body who loves eating glass. He’ll be a staple in Skerry’s frontcourt rotation. Freshman Charles Thompson will add more depth to the physical forward corps.
Last year’s squad was Skerry’s worst ever from a defensive standpoint. The Tigers weren’t nearly as physical – especially on the perimeter – and allowed far to many easy looks from outside the arc (that’s not good in the CAA). Generally, Skerry looks to bully teams on this end and pack the paint with rim protectors so as not to allow easy rim looks or second chance opportunities. Perhaps with an uptick in experience, Towson’s defense will improve in 2019-20.
Bottom Line: Towson likely rises up the CAA ranks this season due to the relative decline of the teams around them, but by no means do I expect the Tigers to compete with Northeastern and Charleston for a league title. This squad could finish as high as 3rd in the league, but it would shock me to see them come within three games of the aforementioned favorites.
5. Delaware
Key Returners: Kevin Anderson, Ryan Allen, Collin Goss, Jacob Cushing
Key Losses: Eric Carter, Ithiel Horton, Darian Bryant, Matt Veretto, Ryan Johnson
Key Newcomers: Nate Darling (UAB), Justyn Mutts (High Point), Dylan Painter (Villanova), Ebby Asamoah, Aleks Novakovich (Redshirt), Johnny McCoy
Lineup:
Outlook: To borrow from a hackneyed old saying, “Delaware can’t have nice things.” That’s what I think of every time I hear the Hens have lost yet another burgeoning star to the transfer market. Since Martin Ingelsby took over the program in 2016-17, he’s lost Kory Holden (technically happened right before he got there, but still counting it), Ryan Daly, and now Ithiel Horton – all CAA rookie studs – to Power 6 schools. The constant revolving door of elite talent has made it difficult for Ingelsby to find a foothold in the Colonial, where his Hens have finished 9th, 8th, and 5th during his three-year tenure. Last season started off promising, as Delaware unexpectedly took down a good chunk of its non-conference opponents, bolting out to an 8-3 record despite not having Ryan Allen in the lineup. After an 8-6 start to CAA play, an injury to Kevin Anderson factored into the Hens losing four straight and ending the year with yet another losing conference record. Ingelsby has done well building the program despite the roster turnover – his squads have improved in the CAA each year and Delaware achieved its first overall winning season last year since 2013-14. With a strong crop of transfers coming to Newark this season, the Hens may finally crack the conference’s top four.
Ithiel Horton’s transfer to Pitt is a tough loss from an offensive standpoint. The Hens played a lot through Eric Carter on the block last season, but Horton was key in creating offense and bailing the team out of late shot clock situations. His on/off numbers offensively are staggering, but perhaps Hens fans can take some solace in the fact Delaware was light years better defensively when the freshman guard sat on the pine:
Info per Hoop Lens
Without Horton and Carter, offensive production will fall squarely on the shoulders of Ingelsby’s guard triumvirate of Ryan Allen, Kevin Anderson, and UAB transfer Nate Darling. Ingelsby, a Mike Brey disciple, runs a very patient offense. Delaware ranked 346th in the country in average offensive possession length last year, preferring to play in the halfcourt and use a barrage of screens and cuts to find the perfect open look. This style worked well when everyone was healthy, as the Hens relied primarily on outside shooting and ranked 30th in the country in 3P%.
Allen, the former CAA Rookie of the Year, should lead the team in scoring this year and play over 80% of his squad’s available minutes. He’s a career 38.3% three-point shooter and can create off the dribble in isolation sets, off screens, or out of the pick-n-roll. Allen had foot surgery this offseason, but all signs point to him being ready to go in November; his play will be crucial to Delaware’s success. Anderson handles point guard duties for the Hens, which gives the team a nice size advantage on the perimeter. His shooting could use improvement, but Anderson’s facilitation and creation on offense combined with his versatility defensively was key for the Hens last season. Delaware went just 1-3 in the four games Anderson missed last year. Darling’s arrival on campus is fortuitous after the Horton departure. At UAB, Darling led the CUSA in eFG% his sophomore year, and he’s a career 42% three-point shooter to boot. If international offseason competition is any indication, Darling will likely be one of the Hens’ leading scorers this season and see plenty of minutes in Ingelsby’s backcourt.
Shifting to the frontcourt, the three main players to note here are senior Collin Goss, High Point transfer Justyn Mutts, and Villanova transfer Dylan Painter. Goss started five games last season after coming over from George Washington. He can stretch the floor from the 5-spot, providing a perfect screening partner in pick-n-pop situations, and does well protecting the rim on defense. Mutts is a mostly paint-bound forward who rebounds, blocks shots, and forces turnovers with his athleticism and high energy. He should be a staple in the starting five all season. Painter will be eligible to play after the fall semester. Though he didn’t see much floor time at Nova, Painter is a solid big man who should have no trouble making an impact in the Colonial. In the Bahamas this offseason, Painter put up 26 PTS and 9 REB in Delaware’s final international contest.
Ingelsby tends to keep a short bench, so those aforementioned players will see the lion’s share of the minutes this season. Senior forward Jacob Cushing will see some run on the wing with his shooting ability and experience, but he’s yet to have a fully healthy collegiate season. Redshirt freshman Aleks Novakovich may see some early time while Painter sits on the pine, but once the Nova transfer is eligible, his role will be reduced. Freshmen guards Ebby Asamoah and Johnny McCoy will earn spot minutes given the fact they’re the only reserve guards on the roster. Asamoah, an athletic guard with a decent jumper, is the one to watch here, but McCoy fits Ingelsby’s system well with his ability to read defenses and make the right pass or cut.
With a relatively short bench, Ingelsby will likely continue to play about a third of his defensive possessions in zone (normally a 2-3 variety). Delaware was an overall terrible defensive team last season, but it did do much better when playing zone versus man. The Hens’ general goal is to keep opponents away from the rim, but unfortunately that can often result in easy looks from the perimeter in a conference where every team employs three or four flamethrowers.
Bottom Line: Delaware has the guard talent to score on anyone in the CAA this year, unfortunately the Hens may still be weak defensively. Ingelsby appears to be a good coach and comes from a successful coaching tree, so perhaps this is the year his squad puts it all together and the Hens compete in the top-half of the league. No matter what transpires, here’s hoping another player doesn’t decide to take his talents elsewhere next offseason.
6. James Madison
Key Returners: Matt Lewis, Darius Banks, Dwight Wilson, Deshon Parker, Zach Jacobs
Key Losses: Stuckey Mosley, Develle Phillips, Greg Jones
Key Newcomers: Devon Flowers (Redshirt), Jayvis Harvey, Quinn Richey, Michael Christmas, Zyon Dobbs, Julien Wooden, Dalton Jefferson
Lineup:
Outlook: Louis Rowe’s seat in Harrisonburg, VA is getting mighty hot. In three seasons at the helm, Rowe has failed to finish above the bottom three in the CAA despite having the requisite talent to do so. Rowe may get the benefit of the doubt being a former Dukes player and assistant coach, but at some point JMU fans will be shouting for a change. Matt Brady, Rowe’s predecessor, was shown the door despite winning 19+ games five times in eight seasons and earning a trip to the NCAA Tournament in 2013. The Dukes have a talented starting five this season, which should be enough to finish in the thick of things in a relatively down CAA, but Rowe has yet to prove he’s able to lead a winning team.
JMU’s style the past few seasons has been to slow it down offensively and run offense through their playmaking guards via ball screens. A common gripe among the JMU fanbase has been Rowe’s inability to teach the X’s and O’s. The Dukes survived last year offensively on the backs of Stuckey Mosley and Matt Lewis, good outside shooting, and the offensive glass – but other than that, the offense tended to stagnate as the Dukes brought many possessions late into the shot clock. This style is a bit juxtaposed to the level of athletes JMU has at its disposal as well as Rowe’s preference to apply pressure defensively, but given Rowe keeps a very short bench, it may be more due to stamina than anything else.
Defensively, Rowe mixes in some zone looks and generally tries to take away the three-ball, but the Dukes did nothing well on that end last season. In Rowe’s first two years as head coach, JMU was one of the best defensive squads in the conference and has the requisite athletes to be good again defensively in 2019-20.
Everything will run through Matt Lewis this year, a 3rd Team All-CAA member in 2018-19, conference leader in minutes played, and the Dukes’ leading scorer. Without Mosley in the fold, Lewis figures to be one of the highest used players in the CAA this year; he can score from everywhere on the floor, shoot from the outside, and create out of the pick-n-roll. Lewis will also chip in with ball handling duties alongside point guard Deshon Parker. Parker notched a spot on the Colonial’s All-Rookie team last season and shot a scorching 40.7% from downtown. He’ll see major minutes in year two.
6’5” wing Darius Banks and 6’8” forward Dwight Wilson are JMU’s two other significant returning pieces. Banks is a ferocious and versatile defender, able to guard multiple positions. Offensively, he connected on 50% of his trey balls and earned trips to the foul line at a high rate. Wilson was the driving force behind the Dukes’ offensive rebounding success, ranking in the top 40 nationally in OR%. He’s an effective scorer inside, converting 71.1% of his chances near the rim, and will be counted on to step up on both ends of the floor in his junior season.
As mentioned above, Rowe likes to keep a short bench, a trend that promises to continue in 2019-20. Zach Jacobs likely starts at the 4 alongside Wilson, able to step out beyond the three-point arc on offense and provide shot-blocking on the other end. Devon Flowers, a redshirt freshman, should challenge Jacobs for a starting gig; he’s an athletic forward full of potential. Michael Christmas, a 3-star wing, is Rowe’s biggest recruit in the class of 2019, continuing his tradition of strong recruiting. Christmas can score from all three levels and play above the rim; if Rowe wants to go small, one of Christmas or Banks could occupy the 4-spot.
It’s hard to say how much of an opportunity the remaining members of Rowe’s 2019 class will get this season. Jayvis Harvey, Zyon Dobbs, Quinn Richey, and Julien Wooden all have talent to carve out a spot in the rotation if Rowe plays more than 6 or 7 guys. Harvey is a playmaking guard who can shoot and beat his man off the bounce; Dobbs is a high-energy combo guard; Richey is a MONEY shooter from deep; and Wooden is an athletic wing. Late signee Dalton Jefferson, a skinny stretch big, likely won’t see much time in 2019-20; senior guard Antanee Pinkard likely resumes a deep bench role.
Bottom Line: During my initial skim of the Colonial, I pegged the Dukes to finish right around 3rd or 4th. The unfortunate truth, though, is Rowe has not proven to be capable of finishing that high in conference play. His 2016-17 squad was 4th in the nation in experience but finished 7-11 in the CAA. Likewise, last year’s team was picked to finish 6th in the preseason and featured one of the best backcourts in the conference. JMU has the talent to beat just about anyone in the league, but it remains to be seen if they actually will.
7. Drexel
Key Returners: Camren Wynter, Zach Walton, James Butler, Kurk Lee, Jarvis Doles
Key Losses: Troy Harper, Alihan Demir, Trevor John
Key Newcomers: Mate Okros, TJ Bickerstaff
Lineup:
Outlook: 2019-20 will mark the fourth season of the Zach Spiker era in Philadelphia. The former Army coach has improved Drexel’s conference record in each of his three years at the helm but has stayed remarkably consistent in KenPom’s national ranks (250, 251, 251). Injuries to two starters held back a team ripe with potential in 2018-19; despite losing two all-conference players to graduation, Spiker appears to have enough talent to compete for a top five Colonial finish this year.
Spiker’s uptempo, transition-focused style requires good guard play, of which the Dragons have plenty. Cam Wynter, the reigning CAA Rookie of the Year stepped in for the injured Kurk Lee last season and quickly took control of the team. Wynter ranked 2nd in the CAA in assist rate, proving to be an excellent facilitator and playmaker while keeping his turnover rate microscopically low. Lee’s return will give Spiker a dual point guard look in the backcourt, meaning we should expect to see the Dragons’ pace ramp back up this season after a slower 2018-19. Lee played just six games last year due to a shoulder injury but should be fully healthy in 2019-20. Playing more off the ball this season will hopefully do wonders for Lee’s efficiency, as he’ll be able to focus on shooting and scoring, leaving the ball handling and table setting duties to Wynter.
Zach Walton, a promising JUCO transfer last season, was off to a great start to his DI career before injury struck. Walton was limited to just seven games, forcing Spiker to shorten his bench, slow his play, and give minutes to unprepared freshmen. Like Lee, Walton should be fully healthy in 2019-20; he adds versatility on the wing, able to rebound, score, and defend at a high level. Backing up Wynter, Lee, and Walton will be sophomores Matey Juric and Coletrane Washington (the alluded to “unprepared freshmen”) and newcomer Mate Okros. Juric is a defensive stopper who played major minutes in Drexel’s last five contests; his crazy high turnover rate (40.9% in CAA play) was indicative of his inexperience and unreadiness. Washington has potential as a potent outside shooting threat. Okros, a British import, is a big and talented wing with a gross-looking shot that goes in often.
Inside, Drexel will turn to James Butler to provide a steady paint presence. Butler was perhaps the most surprising player in the conference last season, averaging nearly a double-double and starting every game after playing just four games for Navy in 2016-17. The 6’8” junior ranked in the top five of the CAA in rebounding rate on both ends of the floor and top 90 nationally; his ability to draw fouls and finish from the charity stripe paced a 4th-best conference offensive rating.
Butler will be flanked in the frontcourt by Jarvis Doles, Tim Perry Jr., and TJ Bickerstaff. Doles is a stretch forward who shot 42.3% from downtown last season. Perry is a paint-bound presence who turned in a high rebounding rate ala Butler. Bickerstaff (Bernie’s grandson) is a 6’9” athletic freshman wing who can play the 3 or 4; out of the three, Bickerstaff has the most potential to breakout into a potent contributor.
Like most every other team in the CAA last season, the Dragons were terrible defensively. Spiker did a good job limiting three-point attempts – thanks in part to his 1-3-1 zone – but Drexel was consistently crushed inside and rarely turned opposing teams over. With Lee and Walton healthy, Drexel’s defense should be mildly improved in 2019-20.
Bottom Line: Drexel has one of the best backcourts in the Colonial with Wynter and Lee, two players who can score in bunches and run an offense. Spiker will look to push the tempo hard this year and allow his talented guards to run roughshod on the competition. As in years past, look for the Dragons to get the ball out of the net quickly and try to beat the opposing team down the floor off scores; hopefully a healthier squad leads to a lower frequency of having to pull the ball out of the bottom of the net in the first place. If Drexel’s guards can avoid settling for inefficient two-point jumpers and its bigs provide some sort of resistance defensively, there’s no reason the Dragons can’t finish with a winning record in conference play for the first time since 2012.
Tier 3
8. William & Mary
Key Returners: Nathan Knight, Luke Loewe, Thornton Scott, Jihar Williams, Quinn Blair
Key Losses: Justin Pierce, Chase Audige, Matt Milon, Paul Rowley, LJ Owens
Key Newcomers: Bryce Barnes (Milwaukee), Andy Van Vliet (Wisconsin), Tyler Hamilton (Penn), Rainers Hermanovskis, Miguel Ayesa, Ben Wright, Thatcher Stone
Lineup:
Outlook: Farewell to Tony Shaver, head coach of the William & Mary Tribe since 2003-04 and offensive mastermind. The long-time coach was shown the door despite building the Tribe into a perennial CAA contender and appearing to be on the cusp of reaching the program’s first NCAA Tournament. William & Mary was set to return nearly everyone from a 10-8 CAA squad, likely being tabbed the favorites to take home the conference title this season. But, with the firing of Shaver came the transfers, as five key players opted to take their talents elsewhere, leaving new head coach Dane Fischer heavily reliant on the superlative Nathan Knight (who miraculously didn’t transfer) and a handful of newcomers.
Fischer comes to William & Mary by way of George Mason where he served under Dave Paulsen. Previously, Fischer was also with Paulsen at Bucknell and DIII Williams College. If we assume Fischer stays true to Paulsen’s style, we should expect to see a spread-out, half-court focused offensive attack that relies on multiple ball handlers, ball screens, and dribble handoffs to score points. Of course, it doesn’t really matter what style of play Fischer prefers, because nearly everything on offense will be going through Nathan Knight’s hands this season.
Knight has no equal in the Colonial and is a shoo-in for another spot on the conference’s 1st Team. Offensively, Knight can beat his man down on the block (scored 1.089 PPP in post-ups, 93rd percentile nationally)…
…or off the drive (1.034 PPP in isolation; 86th percentile):
The 6’10” senior was the highest used player in the CAA last season, something he will almost certainly repeat in 2019-20 with a Tribe squad looking to rebuild. But Knight isn’t a one-trick pony – he literally affects that game in every facet while on the floor. He led the conference in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, ranked 3rd in assist rate, and 1st in block rate on the other end (All-Defense Team member). Knight was perhaps the best all-around player in the CAA last season and will be again this year. Unfortunately for him, his teammates may not have enough oomph to take William & Mary to the top of the league standings. Expect opposing defenses to hone in on stopping Knight on a nightly basis, a task much easier said than done.
Because the attention Knight is sure to garner this season, Bill & Mary’s role players will need to be ready to take advantage of open opportunities, particularly from outside the arc. Thornton Scott, Luke Loewe, and Bryce Barnes will likely form the starting backcourt for Fischer, each bringing something of importance to the table. Scott brings shooting and will get much more opportunities this season to prove his worth with majority of last year’s talented guards transferring. Loewe started every game last season and handed the lion’s share of the PG duties. Barnes, a Milwaukee grad transfer, has been a consistent starter at the point during his college career. He’s less of a shooting threat than Scott, but more of a table setter and penetrator. Defensively, Barnes will likely be an upgrade on the perimeter.
A combination of Tyler Hamilton, Jihar Williams, Rainers Hermanovskis, Miguel Ayesa, and Thatcher Stone will fill in for Barnes, Loewe, and Scott off the bench and/or start alongside them at the 2/3. Hamilton, a Penn grad transfer, has missed significant time the past two seasons with injury; he brings value from a defensive perspective. Williams has yet to play much in college but has potential as a two-way player. Hermanovskis, a talented combo guard, was a member of Latvia’s U20 National Team. He’s a good passer and shooter who can also score off the bounce. Ayesa is arguably the best shooter on the roster. Stone is a skilled wing who can shoot the three or pull-up off the bounce.
Lining up next to Knight up front will likely be Andy Van Vliet, a Wisconsin transfer who started a few games for the Badgers during his short time in Madison. He’s a career 15/31 from downtown and gives Fischer an opportunity to play a giant frontcourt with his ability to space the floor. Sophomores Quinn Blair and Mehkel Harvey and freshman Ben Wright will round out the frontcourt rotation. Blair is a stretch 4 who can rebound, Harvey is more of a paint presence who can block shots, and Wright adds athleticism to the front line.
Shaver’s squads were never known for their defense, but last year’s W&M squad ranked 2nd in the CAA in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Knight is a lockdown paint protector and Fischer appears to have plenty of length and athleticism to put around the big man in the middle. This squad will likely have a keen focus on stopping transition chances, a Dave Paulsen specialty, and could be one of the stronger defensive teams in the league once again.
Bottom Line: Knight will have to go Super Saiyan for the Tribe to finish in the top half of the CAA this season. Fischer might prove to be a good hire, but his current roster severely lacks experience and talent (on paper) outside of Knight. It’s a shame Tony Shaver couldn’t quite get the Tribe to the NCAA Tournament; perhaps Fischer will some day down the road.
9. UNC Wilmington
Key Returners: Kai Toews, Ty Gadsen, Jay Estime’, Jaylen Sims
Key Losses: Devontae Cacok, Jeantal Cylla, Jaylen Fornes, Ty Taylor, Shawn O’Connell
Key Newcomers: Carter Skaggs (Washington State), Marten Linssen (Valparaiso), Brian Tolefree (JUCO), Mike Okauru (Florida), Imajae Dodd, Jake Boggs, Shykeim Phillips
Lineup:
Outlook: CB McGrath had the unenviable task of replacing the great Kevin Keatts, the current NC State head honcho who led UNCW to two straight NCAA Tournaments before rising up the national coaching ranks. McGrath kept the Seahawks in the thick of things in 2017-18 but bottomed out into last place in the CAA last season, finishing just 5-13 in conference play. UNCW now loses Devontae Cacok, one of the best rebounders in college basketball history, severely hampering McGrath’s preferred style of play. Like his mentor Roy Williams, McGrath looks to push the tempo offensively and crash the glass. With Cacok’s graduation, UNCW is left with a diminutive roster that lacks size and rebounding. The Seahawks appear destined to spend another season in the Colonial cellar.
UNCW was the second fastest team in the CAA last season, a style trait that should continue in 2019-20 with the roster being filled mostly with guards. McGrath will look to run in transition and bomb away from deep, using his myriad of three-point specialists to compensate for a lack of interior size. It’s hard to see UNCW’s rebounding being even close to the level of the past few years, which means McGrath may need to adjust his all-out glass crash philosophy in favor of a more conservative approach. Cacok’s departure is also key from a half-court offense standpoint, as the big man was a focal point of the Seahawks’ attack on the block. With Cacok in the lineup, UNCW put up a respectable 1.09 PPP, but that number crashed to just 0.97 PPP when Cacok sat.
Defense promises to be a huge issue once again this year. UNCW was the worst defensive team in the CAA in 2018-19 and one of the bottom-15 defensive squads in the entire country. Defensive rebounding was about the only thing the Seahawks did well, as teams destroyed UNCW inside and took advantage of a plethora of open outside looks. Even when McGrath ramped up the full-court pressure, the Seahawks couldn’t stop opposing offenses, and they turned teams over at the 4th lowest rate in the country. Cacok was a perennial CAA All-Defense member – his absence on this end looms just as large as on the other side of the floor.
UNCW will go as its guards go this season. Sophomore Kai Toews appears poised to take on the all-important leadership mantle after earning a spot on the conference’s All-Rookie squad last season. Toews posted the second highest assist rate in the country last season (just behind Ja Morant) and will now look to reduce turnover issues that occasionally plagued his otherwise stellar facilitation. The 6’2” point guard could also use an improvement in his outside shooting, a facet of his game that will need to blossom if UNCW is going to come anywhere near competing in the CAA.
Ty Gadsen and Jay Estime’ will serve as Toews’ sharpshooting partners on the wings. Gadsen is UNCW’s returning leading scorer and was the 3rd most efficient player in the CAA last season. The 6’1” lefty guard converted 45.7% of his three-point tries in 2018-19 (particularly feasting in transition) and also helped Toews with ball handling duties. Offseason hip and hernia surgery will keep Gadsen out until late November to early December, but he’ll be a key factor when he returns. Estime’ doesn’t look to create his own shot, but serves as a solid spot-up option in an offense that will shoot a ton of threes. Florida transfer Mike Okauru received a waiver in September to be immediately eligible. Look for him to add shooting and share in ball handling duties.
Gadsen and Estime’ started a majority of the games last year, but newcomers Carter Skaggs and Brian Tolefree will each look to supplant the incumbents in the starting lineup. Skaggs comes to UNCW by way of Washington State, where he was a sporadic starter. In two seasons, Skaggs has attempted 280 three-pointers (hitting 38.6% of them) to just 42 two-pointers. Tolefree is a JUCO import who played well in the team’s two games in Italy this offseason. Like nearly every other guard on this roster, Tolefree is a deadeye shooter from deep. Freshman point guard Shykeim Phillips likely won’t crack the rotation in his first season in Wilmington, but his preference to push the pace in transition will serve him well in McGrath’s system down the road.
McGrath will almost certainly run lineups with four guards on the floor at all times. Valpo transfer Marten Linssen and freshman Imajae Dodd are the only true bigs on this roster. Linssen probably sees the lion’s share of starts at the 5 despite having a so-so showing in limited minutes at Valpo as a freshman in 2017-18. He can provide some semblance of rim protection on defense and posted good rebounding rates when he did see the floor. Dodd is an undersized-but-athletic forward reminiscent of Cacok. He’s a potential asset on the glass and as a rim protector inside. Sophomore guard Jaylen Sims will likely see plenty of run at the “4-spot” after turning in a very solid freshman season. He’s a capable outside shooter who came on strong at the end of last year. Freshman Jake Boggs could also see minutes at the 4 with his combination of size and ability to stretch the floor.
Bottom Line: UNCW will probably finish in the 7-10 range of the CAA this season. McGrath will need to adjust to life without Cacok, perhaps even modifying his preferred style of play. The Seahawks could steal a few games this year with their ability to shoot from deep, but they’ll still likely be nightmarishly poor defensively and not nearly as potent on the glass as in years past.
10. Elon
Key Returners: Nathan Priddy***, Kris Wooten, Chuck Hannah, Federico Poser, Andy Pack, Simon Wright, Seth Fuller
Key Losses: Steven Santa Ana, Sheldon Eberhardt, Tyler Seibring, Karolis Kundrotas, Dainan Swoope
Key Newcomers: Marcus Sheffield (Stanford), Hunter McIntosh, Zac Ervin, Hunter Woods
Lineup:
*** Nathan Priddy is not on the official team roster as of the date of this preview ***
Outlook: Elon finally waved goodbye this offseason to 10-year head coach Matt Matheny after limping to the school’s worst KenPom performance since 2001. Matheny looked to have turned the corner in 2016-17, tying for 4th in the CAA and returning a roster chock full of talent in 2017-18. Despite ranking 3rd in returning minutes that season, the Phoenix flamed out in glorious fashion, finishing 14-18 overall and 6-12 in Colonial play. Expectations aren’t much at a school that has failed to make an NCAA Tournament in any of its 20 Division 1 seasons, but Matheny’s past two squads have severely underachieved, signaling a need for change in leadership.
Mike Schrage will take charge of the Phoenix this season after serving as a Director of Basketball Operations for Ole Miss and Duke and serving as an assistant to Johnny Dawkins at Stanford and Chris Holtmann at Butler and Ohio State. Schrage’s early strength appears to be on the recruiting path, as he was able to hang onto a couple potential transfers after the coaching change and bring in a solid four-man class. With Elon losing its three best players including 2nd Team All-CAA member Tyler Seibring, expectations are low in Schrage’s first year at the helm.
Schrage’s offensive system is an unknown at this point, but the current roster makeup suggests we should continue to see a team heavily reliant on the three-ball. Elon ranked 7th in the country in 3PA rate last season and took the 3rd lowest percentage of shots near the rim; the Phoenix will consistently have four guys (sometimes five) on the floor who can all shoot from distance. They had this same type of lineup last year as well but were so overly reliant on jump shots it killed their overall offensive efficiency, leading to them finishing dead last in offense in the CAA (per KenPom).
Returning guards Nathan Priddy and Kris Wooten will likely resume their starting roles in the backcourt. Priddy will run point and provide solid defense, while Wooten will lend reliable shooting to the wing. Neither guard is a big-time scorer, but both had their moments in 2018-19. Stanford transfer Marcus Sheffield will take on the lion’s share of the scoring load. Schrage recruited Sheffield to Stanford when he was an assistant there, and now brings him to Elon where he should be a lock to etch his name on the conference’s All-Newcomer Team. Sheffield was tagged annually as a breakout candidate in the Pac-12, particularly after his 35-point outburst against Arizona State back in 2016, but he never materialized into anything more than a solid role player. At Elon, Sheffield should be the center of attention with his ability to shoot, drive, and defend.
Minutes in Schrage’s rotation this season are very much up-for-grabs, with only Sheffield seemingly having a stranglehold on major playing time. Andy Pack, Seth Fuller, Zac Ervin, Hunter McIntosh, and Hunter Woods could all carve out roles this season either in the starting five or off the bench. Ervin and Woods, both incoming freshmen, are probably the two to watch in this group. Ervin finished his HS career as a top ten scorer in the state of Virginia, able to shoot it from anywhere on the floor with high accuracy. Woods is a three-star recruit out of California who brings athleticism, quickness, and length to a roster short on all three.
One of Elon’s (possibly many) weaknesses this season will be its frontcourt. Only Federico Poser is a “true” post player who can offer some semblance of shot blocking. Simon Wright and Chuck Hannah are both stretch 4s; Hannah is good at finding shots inside the paint, particularly off cuts, while Wright might be the best overall rebounder on the team. It’s hard to imagine Elon being able to get consistent stops on the interior or keeping bigger bodies off the glass.
Bottom Line: Mike Schrage appears to be a good hire for the future of this program with his ability to bring in talent. Year one will be a little rough, particularly with the departure of Seibring without whom the Phoenix scored just 0.83 PPP last season. Look for Sheffield to challenge for an All-Conference spot this year, but expect Elon to finish somewhere in the CAA cellar.