-Jim Root
For the second consecutive year, 3MW was in the house at the CBS Sports Classic (thank you to KK and the entire KemperLesnik team), getting an in-person read on UCLA, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Ohio State. It certainly helps that the event followed me from Chicago to Las Vegas this year, and at this point, I’m pretty hooked on this becoming an annual tradition – although next year’s location remains a mystery…
The UNC/UCLA undercard lost some luster when Cole Anthony got hurt just a week before the event (and when the UCLA coaching search resulted in hiring the administration’s 37th choice this offseason), but it still delivered some relevant insight into both teams. And the title fight between Kentucky and Ohio State lived up to its billing, with a major “punch / counter-punch” rhythm to it throughout the second half. Let’s go with some quick takeaways for each team:
UCLA
The Good: This won’t be a long section! The main guy who stands out when watching the Burins play is 6’6 freshman Jaime Jacquez, a California native who makes things happen on both ends with his effort and willingness to give up his body. Jaquez is a smart ball-mover on offense (though his shooting has been spotty), and he ranks 85th in the entire country in steal rate on the defensive end. He looks like a building block for the future, at the very least.
Other than Jaquez, the Bruins do also battle inside, having outrebounded UNC and its Armando Bacot/Garrison Brooks frontcourt 42-37. UCLA ranks 16th and 20th nationally in offensive and defensive rebounding rates, respectively, and the frontcourt duo of Cody Riley and Jalen Hill is physical and high-octane. It’s clear that Cronin’s influence has had a beneficial impact here.
The Bad: Really, the Bruins have become a Mick Cronin team overnight. They’re dominant on the offensive glass, the half-court offense is choppy and overly reliant on getting to the free throw line, and the team can’t shoot – largely because Cronin has mysteriously buried the team’s best shooter (David Singleton). Sound familiar?
Perhaps the reason for Singleton’s spotty playing time is “defense,” but the guys he’s running out there aren’t exactly suffocating opponents: UCLA ranks 161st in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, the worst ranking for a Cronin team since 2005 Murray State.
Where They’re Going: The bottom half of the Pac 12 standings. The Bruins are just 7-5 in the non-conference, their best win is at home against either UC Santa Barbara or Southern Utah, and unfortunately, the Pac 12 is pretty good this year.
North Carolina
The Good: The Tar Heels’ star freshman guard may be on the shelf, but it was still the rookie backcourt that gave real reason for optimism this year. Anthony Harris only saw three minutes of action in the first half, but Coach Roy Williams couldn’t keep him off the floor in the second half, getting to the basket and knocking down several shots. Williams was effusive in his praise after the game:
“I told the guys all season long, if you want to play more, play better. If you want to play more, be tougher. And I think Anthony gave us some of that toughness… And I'm not saying he's a great shooter, but he willed a couple of those shots in today. He got a couple of steals and goes down and makes some baskets, so I think he was probably the biggest story in the game for us.”
I would have to agree with Mr. Williams, as Harris and fellow froshy Jeremiah Francis lit a fire under the Heels in the second half. Both guards have a far more “downhill” nature to their games than Andrew Platek or the high-major version of Christian Keeling, and their exuberance was crucial in extending the lead through the second stanza.
Of course, such a youthful backcourt comes with its fair share of head-scratchers – Francis had four turnovers, and Coach Williams joked about one of his erratic shots (“I can't even describe what the crap he tried to do with that shot”), but the good far outweighed the bad on this day.
Francis is an incredible story. Per UNC’s game notes, when Francis debuted against Virginia on 12/8, it had been 1,000 days since he had played an organized game due to multiple serious injuries. One thousand days! He’s only been practicing full court for two weeks now, and he already looks like a major piece for the Tar Heels, who snapped a string of four consecutive losses.
The Bad: There is a serious dearth of shot-making on this team, and even if Francis and Harris continue to emerge as legitimate scoring threats, good teams will do what Virginia did and put Brooks and Bacot in a vice inside. Plus, the youth will likely lead to a couple more head-scratching performances (like the Wofford loss).
Where They’re Going: Back to the NCAA Tournament and a middle-high finish in the ACC. Look, the Tar Heels aren’t great (they certainly are not the national champion I embarrassingly predicted them to be), but even in the doomsday scenario where Cole Anthony does not return, the frontcourt and the freshman guards make them better than half the ACC (for sure: BC, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Pitt, Syracuse, and likely Notre Dame, Miami (FL), and Virginia Tech, as well).
Kentucky
The Good: The Wildcats got a huge performance from Nate Sestina, as the former Bucknell big man shined as a pick-and-pop weapon, burying five triples before Ohio State started switching everything. John Calipari described Sestina’s new role as Derek Willis-esque, and the Wildcats are going to need every bit of the floor spacing he provides. The Buckeye switches eventually shut this down as an option (he didn’t score in the final 14 minutes), but given that’s a recently added wrinkle, Kentucky will eventually learn to punish those switches by attacking the resulting mismatches.
The other clear bright spot was Ashton Hagans as the Wildcats’ clear floor leader. He racked up nine assists in this one, and he made some gigantic plays on both ends of the court, including a couple of “pick-sixes” for easy buckets against Ohio State’s normally sure-handed guards:
He was an emotional firebrand, as well, firing up the crowd and his teammates with his constant energy. It’s the second straight year he’s been phenomenal at this event (he had eight steals against UNC in Chicago last season), but if I could offer him one suggestion, it would be to never take this shot again:
The Bad: This two-game stretch in Las Vegas proved just how vital Sestina is and will be for the Wildcats, and so his continued good health is absolutely paramount to Kentucky playing its best basketball come March.
Part of why Sestina is so important is the utter lack of production from Kentucky’s 5-star forwards. John Calipari whiffed on adding a true big man in this class, but it seemed like some smaller, faster lineups would be an option with the addition of Keion Brooks and Kahlil Whitney:
A couple of five-star SFs for Coach Cal to play with? Sounds dangerous!
Unfortunately, those two have been ghosts, and that was particularly true against Ohio State. They combined to play 19 minutes, tallying two points on 1/6 shooting with two rebounds and two turnovers, and the Wildcats really only have four players I trust in a big game right now: Hagans, Sestina, Tyrese Maxey, and Immanuel Quickley. Even that’s being generous, considering Maxey and Quickley went a combined 2/11 from deep in this one, many of which were open looks.
Where They’re Going: The NCAA Tournament with a high seed…the questions are how high the seed will be (the resume is rather barren as it currently stands) and whether the Wildcats can actually do anything with it. I have a hard time believing Whitney, Brooks, and E.J. Montgomery will continue to be passive bystanders on the court, but unless the Wildcats’ shooting takes a major upturn and/or those three start providing some actual production, the offense won’t be good enough to win several big games against quality opponents.
Ohio State
The Good: I started to feel like my brain was broken during this game, because the margin never changed from some variant of “Ohio State by 1” or “Ohio State by 4.” Indeed, the Buckeyes never surrendered the lead in the final 28 minutes of the game, despite Kentucky pulling within one no less than 500 times (all numbers approximate).That kind of resilience against a team like Kentucky is incredibly impressive, and it reveals a lot about the Buckeyes’ potential to make a deep run in a tournament setting.
As great as Kaleb Wesson is — he is definitely the best college player currently on the Buckeyes’ roster and a clear All-American choice right now — I think the skeleton key necessary to unlock Ohio State’s ultimate upside is D.J. Carton. The freshman point guard was somehow only a 4-star recruit (how?!), but he oozes talent and makes plenty of “wow” plays:
Unfortunately, he’s still in “deferral mode” too often, and while I don’t mean that he needs to go and average 15 points per game (he had 15 in this one), I would slowly like to see him ascend into the team’s clear primary perimeter creator every time he’s on the court. It makes sense right now: he’s young, and C.J. Walker has a lot more experience, but Carton’s relentlessness, superb athleticism, and top-shelf basketball IQ can open doors that Walker simply cannot.
The Bad: The flaw that jumped out in this one was the potential for teams to attack Kaleb Wesson with physicality and get him into foul trouble. Wesson is the team’s only real interior scorer: Kyle Young is outstanding in his role, and E.J. Liddell certainly has potential, but neither guy is commanding a crucial spot in opponents’ game plans the way Wesson does. The only Buckeye with a negative plus-minus in this game was Liddell (-3 in 17 minutes), and Hoop Lens numbers for the full season underscore how Wesson elevates the team from “really, really good” to “national title contender elite” when on the floor:
The Buckeyes face a significant test in this regard against West Virginia on Saturday in Cleveland. Bob Huggins has two bigs in Derek Culver and Oscar Tshiebwe who will wreak havoc in the paint. The two combine to draw 13.5 fouls per 40 minutes, so Wesson will need to defend intelligently to remain on the court.
Where They’re Going: At this point, my best guess is the Final Four. Ky was bold enough to predict that this offseason (I stopped myself at Elite Eight, regrettably), but the Buckeyes have all of the ingredients (tremendous coaching, an elite defense, multiple play-makers and shooters) necessary to make a real run come March.