- Ky McKeon
Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Marcus Zegarowski, Jr., Creighton
Coach of the Year: Jay Wright, Villanova
Newcomer of the Year: DJ Carton, So., Marquette***
Freshman of the Year: Dawson Garcia, Fr., Marquette
*** No, not all UConn players are technically newcomers - don’t be a smartass
Tier 3
3. Providence
Key Returners: David Duke, Nate Watson, AJ Reeves, Greg Gantt
Key Losses: Alpha Diallo, Luwane Pipkins, Maliek White, Kalif Young, Emmitt Holt
Key Newcomers: Noah Horchler (North Florida), Jared Bynum (Saint Joseph’s), Alyn Breed, Jyare Davis, Brycen Goodine (Syracuse)***
*** Goodine is currently awaiting a waiver to become immediately eligible. La Salle transfer Ed Croswell plans on sitting out.
Lineup:
Outlook: It was the best of times; it was the worst of times… a tale of two seasons. Providence came into the 2019-20 season expecting to compete for the Big East conference crown. That projection quickly sank like a lead balloon after the Friars stumbled through non-conference play to a 7-6 record with losses at Northwestern, Penn at the Dunk, and Long Beach State and Charleston at neutral sites. After starting the year in KenPom ranked 30th, the Friars peaked at 88th in the Minister of Analytics’ rankings, far on the outside looking in at a potential Tourney bid. Even on February 12th when the Friars sat 13-12 (6-6), an at-large bid to the (later cancelled) Dance seemed well out of reach. Then something clicked. Providence won its last six games of Big East play, finishing 12-6 (good for 4th in the league) and well within bracketologists’ Field of 68 projections. Last year’s squad ended up being Ed Cooley’s best team since 2015 and a Tourney berth would have been Providence’s sixth in seven seasons. Despite a bevy of talent walking out the door, Cooley looks to have yet another at-large contender on his hands, led by a junior guard ready for stardom.
I’d be remiss if I did not mention that Ed Cooley ranks #1 in Big East play-by-play man John Fanta’s power rankings of best Big East coaches to hang out with, as revealed this past May during our 24-hour Rewatch for Relief. Cooley has revitalized and rebuilt a program that struggled for many years, and while he’s yet to reach the Sweet Sixteen, he certainly deserves to be acknowledged as one of the best coaches in the country.
Offense has been an issue for Providence as of late, failing to finish within the top 75 of KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency rankings in each of the past five years. The Friars have relied upon their scrappy and physical play to score buckets and have won games on the defensive end. Last season, Providence led the Big East in offensive rebounding rate and primarily scored via a healthy diet of trips to the foul line, post-ups, and slashes to the basket. Despite the difficulty scoring, however, Providence consistently ranks among the nation’s best in assist rate, usually a sign of good ball movement and an unselfish style of play. Cooley prefers his teams to work off catch-and-shoot, hand-off, and post-up situations instead of isolation.
The idea of losing Alpha Diallo, last year’s leading scorer, may seem damning to the naked eye, but Providence was actually better from a PPP perspective when Diallo was off the floor in 2019-20. Plus, junior guard David Duke looks poised to assume Alpha’s alpha role. Duke took his game to another level last season after capturing a share of the Big East’s Freshman of the Year award in 2018-19. He developed into a better three-point shooter, taking a pedestrian freshman mark of 29.7% from downtown to a muscular 42% last season. Duke’s size makes him a real asset on the perimeter, and his ability to handle the ball or play the 2 gives Cooley a dual-PG look on the floor at all times. Elite teams need a guy who can create something out of nothing late in the clock, and Duke appears to be the man for the job heading into 2020-21:
His improved outside shot should lead to more driving opportunities where Duke can use his superior strength to finish amongst the trees:
Duke can handle the rock and run an offense, but he is better off the ball in most cases, which is why Saint Joe’s transfer Jared Bynum figures to make an enormous impact. Bynum comes in to spell Luwane Pipkins, who took over PG duties after transferring in from UMass. The 5’10” dynamo started all 33 games for the Hawks as a freshman and ranked 25th in the country in minutes played. His shooting ability and poise with the basketball will make him an offensive weapon and one of the top newcomers to watch in the league.
With Syracuse transfer Brycen Goodine likely sitting, guard play is thin outside of Duke and Bynum, but that’s kind of been Cooley’s M.O. the past few seasons. He likes to bring in big combo wings and dominate the floor with size across the perimeter. AJ Reeves secured a starting spot during Providence’s late season run, and though inconsistent, is another guy who can score the ball when needed. Reeves shot very well from the outside in conference play and his 6’6” frame at the 3 will give the Friars elite size and switchability on the defensive end. Freshmen Alyn Breed and Jyare Davis both figure to assume an immediate rotation spot in their inaugural seasons. Breed hails from IMG Academy and carries the reputation as a defensive combo guard with a good frame capable of putting on muscle in college. He’s not crazy athletic, but college coaches everywhere should like the way he plays off two feet, a rarity in today’s game. Davis developed early in high school and has been on college radars for quite some time. He’s a strong wing who can play the 3 or 4 and brings slashing ability, athleticism and strength to the fold.
The interior will be manned by Nate Watson, a 6’10” senior who ranked second on the squad in usage a year ago. Providence can run its offense through Watson, who possesses deft footwork and the strength to get consistent deep position in the post.
Watson led the Big East in OR% and ranked 15th nationally, earning countless extra possessions for Ed Cooley’s squad. Foul trouble has been an issue for Watson in the past, but when on the floor he’s one of the better bigs in the conference.
North Florida transfer Noah Horchler will likely start at the 4 alongside Watson, giving Providence somewhat of a novel presence at that position. Horchler can stretch the floor, rebound, and even block shots on the defensive end – his talents should pair nicely with Watson’s. Also, keep an eye on sophomore Greg Gantt in the frontcourt; he has breakout written all over him. Gantt came out of high school a top 75 recruit and has the versatility to play the 3 or 4. Jimmy Nichols will also be a welcome returner after missing 25 games due to injury last season – he’s yet another combo forward at Cooley’s disposal. 6’8” junior Kris Monroe will continue to provide depth up front. With so many bodies in the frontcourt, it’s probably a blessing that La Salle transfer Ed Croswell has to ride the pine this season.
As briefly mentioned earlier, Providence won games last year primarily thanks to its defense, a unit that ranked #1 in the Big East per KenPom and 27th overall. The Friars’ perimeter length allows them to pressure unsuspecting backcourts, which leads to turnovers and a minimal amount of 3PFGA. Rim protection may continue to be an issue, but the length on the arc oftentimes makes up for the relatively soft middle. While Cooley plays mostly man, his squad did play the most zone in the Big East last season (20% of possessions) and he’ll mix in token and trapping fullcourt pressure to keep his opponents on their heels.
Bottom Line: I’m buying into this Providence team. They have a shot to be better offensively than last season with the addition of Bynum and Horchler and the maturation of Duke and Watson. Defensively, the Friars will continue to play hard-nosed Ed Cooley basketball, using their length to its full advantage. Backcourt depth could become an issue later in the year, but Duke and Bynum have no issue playing in the high 30s every night.
4. Seton Hall
Key Returners: Sandro Mamukelashvili, Jared Rhoden, Myles Cale, Ike Obiagu, Shavar Reynolds, Tyrese Samuel
Key Losses: Myles Powell, Quincy McKnight, Romaro Gill, Anthony Nelson
Key Newcomers: Bryce Aiken (Harvard), Takal Molson (Canisius), Dimingus Stevens, Jahari Long, Jeff Ngandu
Lineup:
Outlook: COVID-19 prematurely ended what was the Seton Hall basketball program’s best season since the early 90s. The Pirates, led by All-American Myles Powell, split the Big East title (though they got swept by Creighton) and were in line for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Tourney bid would have been coach Kevin Willard’s fifth straight, which would have broken the school record set by PJ Carlesimo from 1991 – 1994. Now Hall finds itself in an interesting position – it loses Powell to graduation along with surprise impact player Quincy McKnight and shot swatter Romaro Gill, but returns a solid core highlighted by 6’11” forward Sandro Mamukelashvili and adds two dynamic transfers to the backcourt.
Unsurprisingly, Powell’s impact offensively last season was profound, but the Pirates actually fared better defensively when the stud guard was off the floor:
Info per Hoop Lens
McKnight was a very good defender and versatile wings Myles Cale and Jared Rhoden covered multiple spots. Willard usually has tough defenses – his M.O. is physicality and toughness – but he’s only had two top 70 offenses at Seton Hall in ten seasons. To make up for Powell’s departure, Willard brings in one of the most coveted grad transfers on the market in Harvard’s Bryce Aiken, a former top 100 recruit. Like Powell, Aiken can take over games with his scoring ability – he’s liable to pull up from anywhere on the floor and can beat his man off the bounce more often than not. In 63 career collegiate games, Aiken has scored over 30 points seven times and his career high is a whopping 44. Hall ran a ton of pick-n-roll last year for McKnight and Powell, and Aiken excelled in that play type in 2018-19 when he ranked in the 93rd percentile nationally in PPP off ball screens.
The issue for Aiken has always been his health – he hasn’t played a full season since his freshman year and managed just seven games in 2019-20. For Hall to repeat its 3rd best Big East offense from a year ago, Aiken needs to stay healthy, ascend to his alpha-status potential and put gobs of points on the board.
With Aiken comes Takal Molson, a Canisius transfer who spent last season on the pine due to transfer rules. Molson was a 1st Team All-MAAC selection as a sophomore and was one of the most prolific scorers in the mid-major realm in 2018-19. Molson’s downside is his efficiency – he’s been very much a volume scorer during his short career, canning just 30.6% of his 327 three-point attempts in two seasons. At Seton Hall, Molson won’t be forced to be the #1 option, so his efficiency should improve; he could be a dangerous complementary piece to Aiken on the wing with his strength and ability to score from all three levels.
Molson’s primary starting competition in the backcourt will come from seniors Myles Cale and Shavar Reynolds and junior Jared Rhoden. Reynolds is the only true shooting guard of the bunch, as Cale and Rhoden (and even Molson to some extent) are more prototypical wings who can get away playing the 4. Both Rhoden and Cale are good defenders and can score off the drive. Rhoden is the better shooter, but Cale has shown he can knock down shots in the past. Willard has a lot of lineup options he can play with given Rhoden’s rebounding ability. Reynolds is mostly a spot-up shooter, but he’ll get run based on the dearth of true guards on the roster.
Two 3-star freshmen, Jahari Long and Dimingus Stevens could also crack the backcourt rotation at some point this year. Long appears to be the point guard of the future – he fits the “true” point guard mold, a pass-first table setter with above average quickness. Stevens is a knockdown outside shooter who Willard hopes can have a defensive impact as well with his length on the wing.
Seton Hall’s star this season will be senior Mamukelashvili, who I will from this moment on refer to only as “Mamu”. Mamu missed ten games last season due to injury (11 if you count his brief Iowa State appearance in which he went down five minutes into the game), during which time the Pirates went an impressive 9-1 (9-2). That’s not to say Mamu was not valuable, it more so highlights just how special Powell was. This season, Hall cannot afford to lose Mamu for the same amount of time. In 2019-20, Mamu led the Big East in O-rating, shooting a blistering 43.3% from three and 62.9% inside the arc.
In addition to being a smooth, strong lefty on offense, Mamu is a solid rebounder and a decent-enough frontcourt defender. If he can play at an All-Conference level this season, which many think he should, Hall will be right in the mix for 2nd place behind runaway favorite Villanova.
Romaro Gill’s absence hurts a lot, but luckily Willard has another 7’2” monster to plug into his place. Former Florida State transfer Ike Obiagu was Gill’s backup last season, playing limited minutes due to his propensity to foul and Gill’s overall excellence. Obiagu is a shot-blocking nightmare in the paint, so Hall shouldn’t have an issue repeating its top ten national block rate from a year ago. Off the bench, look for 6’10” sophomore Tyrese Samuel to see a larger role in the frontcourt with his floor stretching potential, as well as freshman Jeff Ngandu, a Congolese big man who promises to be yet another productive Seton Hall shot blocker.
As mentioned, Seton Hall is usually known for its defense and toughness under Willard. The Pirates ranked 9th last season in Dribble Handoff’s shot quality metric, meaning they forced teams to shoot low-percentage shots (i.e. denied threes and the rim). Defending guards funneled ball handlers into the outstretched arms of Gill and Obiagu to great success – the Pirates ranked 3rd in the Big East in defense and 25th nationally per KenPom. Hall’s D likely tails off a tad, but it should still stay within the national top 40. Obiagu is not quite as reliable as Gill and there’s no replacement for McKnight, but Rhoden and Cale are still around, and Aiken is essentially a wash with Powell.
Bottom Line: Seton Hall has a wide array of possible finishes this season, like several other Big East teams. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Pirates finish as high as 2nd in the league or as low as 7th. I’ll trust Willard to keep the consistency going and take his program to a (what should be) 6th straight Dance.
5. Marquette
Key Returners: Koby McEwen, Jamal Cain, Theo John, Greg Elliott, Symir Torrence
Key Losses: Markus Howard, Sacar Anim, Brendan Bailey, Ed Morrow, Jayce Johnson
Key Newcomers: DJ Carton (Ohio State), Dawson Garcia, Justin Lewis, Osasere Ighodaro, Dexter Akanno (Redshirt)
*** Jose Perez (Gardner Webb) will likely not receive a waiver for this upcoming season to be immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: The growing unrest of Marquette Golden Eagle fans can be heard from miles away. Sure, Wojo was on track to make his third NCAA Tournament in six seasons, but his accomplishments thus far have fallen light years shy of his predecessors Buzz Williams and Tom Crean. KenPom supports the narrative that Wojo has failed to live up to expectations – in five out of six seasons, Marquette has ended the year ranked lower than it did in the preseason under the 43-year old Coach K prodigy. 2019-20 ended on a sour note as well, as the Eagles lost six of their final seven contests after sitting pretty on February 9th at 17-6 (7-4). This will be an interesting year for both Wojo and the Eagles. They lose all-time college basketball great Markus Howard but bring in a top-20 recruiting class and one of the most sought-after transfers on the market. Marquette should be in the fight for another at-large bid to the Big Dance, but it’s anything but a certainty.
Offense in Milwaukee has been booming the past four seasons with Howard running the show. Per KenPom, the Eagles have finished with a top 15 national offense three of the past four years and ranked 2nd in the Big East in 2019-20. Marquette’s attack could look extremely different without Howard – for instance, the Eagles didn’t shoot many threes before the stud guard came to school but were consistently among the nation’s highest 3PA rate squads the last four seasons. Wojo’s pace may also get dialed back a notch or two without a guy who can shoot it from anywhere in the gym with high success. Howard was the highest used player in the country last season, so Marquette’s transition from a Markus-dominant attack to a more team-based approach will be the biggest thing to watch in 2020-21.
On the flip side, Howard’s departure could be a godsend to the defensive end of the floor. While not an awful defender, Howard was more a liability than he was an asset, and the Eagles fared better defensively when he sat on the bench. Defense has never been Wojo’s strong suit, but he should have arguably his longest and most athletic team to date this season, even without Sacar Anim. Expect the Eagles to once again be solid on the defensive glass, take away three-point attempts for the most part, and improve upon the nation’s 345th ranked TO rate.
The news of Ohio State transfer DJ Carton receiving a waiver to play immediately in 2020-21 raised Marquette’s ceiling significantly. Carton is flat out awesome, as his brief time in Columbus showed. Below are on/off numbers during the games in which Carton played – the splits on both ends of the floor are ridiculous:
Info per Hoop Lens
In his 20 games as a Buckeye, Carton shot 40% from deep and set the table well despite a few issues with turnovers. He’s a freak athlete and every bit deserving of his 5-star accolades coming out of high school in 2019. At Marquette, Carton will immediately assume starting PG duties and should be one of the Eagles’ leading scorers. It would not shock me to see Carton earn a spot on the Big East’s 1st Team All-Conference squad in 2020-21 – he is simply that talented.
6’4” senior Koby McEwen returns to reprise his off-ball role in the backcourt. McEwen carried a lot of hype coming to Marquette as a transfer from Utah State after ranking 2nd in the MWC in usage as a sophomore in 2017-18. While clearly talented, McEwen just hasn’t been efficient the past two years, even in a reduced usage role at Marquette last season. In 2019-20, McEwen shot just 29.2% from deep and had an eFG% of 41.2% (that’s really bad); he also struggled with turnovers in a secondary ball handler role. Nobody on the Marquette roster outside of Carton can score the way McEwen can, the problem is the Eagles will have to deal with his volume gunning. Hoop Lens underscored the efficiency issues last year, as Marquette scored a blazing 1.10 PPP when McEwen sat versus just 0.98 PPP when he was on the floor.
Pushing McEwen for playing time will be junior Greg Elliott, sophomore Symir Torrence, and redshirt freshman Dexter Akanno. Elliott has missed significant time due to injury throughout his career but has proven to be a reliable outside shooter when he’s on the court. Torrence saw limited time as a freshman but comes with a top 75 recruiting pedigree and also proved his shooting worth last season. Without Howard in the backcourt and minutes more or less up in the air, expect Torrence to see a much-increased role in 2020-21. If not, perhaps 20-year old RS FR Akanno can fill the 2-guard void off the pine. Akanno is super athletic and physically gifted, a slasher on offense and potential problem for opponents defensively.
Marquette has some depth in the frontcourt where two returners, Jamal Cain and Theo John, will team with 4-star freshmen Dawson Garcia, Justin Lewis, and Osa Ighodaro. Cain will see plenty of run at both the 3 and 4 – he’s a good rebounder for his position, solid defender, and capable shooter. Cain’s versatility and athleticism makes him one of the more invaluable players on the Marquette roster. John is a big, tough forward who seems like he’s heading into is 10th season of eligibility.
The past two seasons, John has asserted himself as one of the nation’s best shot blockers and one of the Big East’s best rebounders. To boot, John has really improved his hideous foul rate from his first two collegiate years, reducing his FC/40 to just 5.1 from 7.4 and 8.5 as a sophomore and freshman, respectively.
Garcia is the main freshman to watch, a top 35 prospect who can play out on the perimeter at 6’11”. Garcia has impressive ball skills for his size and can run the floor as well as any big man in the 2020 class. Strength will be his immediate improvement point, but there’s no reason he can’t assume a starting role and contribute right away. Lewis is a strong athlete also capable of chipping in immediately in his rookie season. Like Cain, Lewis can play the 3 or 4 and contribute in multiple facets of the game. Ighodaro is more of a project than the other two freshmen, but he has potential to develop into a good power 6 player down the road.
Bottom Line: Marquette takes a step back in 2020-21, but I don’t think it’s as large as many would think given the loss of Markus Howard. Wojo still has plenty of talent to have a top 50 national offense, and his team’s defense could be the best its been during his head coaching career. The Golden Eagles appear to be firmly in the middle of the Big East pecking order to start the season and have a wide range of possible finishes. If Marquette falls too far from a .500 conference record, that growing fan unrest could pass its tipping point.
6. Connecticut
Key Returners: James Bouknight, Tyler Polley, Josh Carlton, Brendan Adams, Jalen Gaffney, Akok Akok***, Isaiah Whaley
Key Losses: Christian Vital, Alterique Gilbert, Sidney Wilson
Key Newcomers: RJ Cole (Howard), Andre Jackson, Adama Sanogo, Javonte Brown-Ferguson, Richie Springs (Redshirt), Tyrese Martin (Rhode Island)**
** Martin is currently awaiting a waiver to become immediately eligible - Updated 9/16 - Martin has received his waiver and will be immediately eligible. Big news for the Huskies who get another perimeter weapon in their already-full cupboard of perimeter weapons.
***Akok may miss season due to Achilles tear
Lineup:
Outlook: Welcome back to the Big East, UConn, you were sorely missed. Basketball fans everywhere lamented when the super-conference broke up following the 2013 season, but none so much as UConn fans, who likely felt slighted at joining the AAC when other former colleagues headed for the ACC or stayed in the new version of the Big East. The Huskies are a storied program who belong in this conference, and I for one am glad to see them return.
Life wasn’t all bad for UConn in the AAC, at least at first. Kevin Ollie led the Huskies to a National Championship in 2014 but then the program started to fade. UConn hasn’t been to the Big Dance since 2016, which seems almost unfathomable when considering its history. Dan Hurley enters his third year at the helm after enjoying a much-improved second season compared to his first. UConn closed out 2019-20 on an 8-2 run and won its last five contests in AAC play. The Huskies were ravaged by injuries last year, a couple of which may bleed into 2020-21, but they were also very young. A more mature version of last year’s squad with budding superstar James Bouknight leading the way has many thinking UConn will finally break its Tourney drought.
I’m in the camp that believes the departure of Alterique Gilbert is a blessing in disguise – while clearly a talented player, Gilbert was inefficient and had the tendency to shoot his team out of ball games. Christian Vital’s loss is much more meaningful, but Bouknight appears more than capable of making up for the lost production, and fellow sophomore guard Jalen Gaffney could also be due for a breakout.
Starting with Bouknight, it’s hard to emphasize just how high we the Weave are on him as a collective. The 6’4” sophomore was a 3rd Team All-AAC and All-Freshman member last season and will be on the shortlist for Big East Player of the Year in 2020-21. Bouknight can handle the ball and score from anywhere – he’s a skinny athlete who just oozes potential. The entire country should know his name by the end of the season, especially now that the Huskies are back in a Power 6 conference.
Gaffney likely takes over the lion’s share of point guard duties, but Hurley will run plenty of dual-PG looks and there are multiple guys on the roster who can initiate the offense. Like many freshmen, Gaffney had his fair share of turnover issues, but he proved to be a crafty defender and showed flashes of his burgeoning offensive game, particularly off the bounce.
Howard transfer RJ Cole, the MEAC Player of the Year in 2019 and two-time MEAC scoring champ, will be an x-factor this season. He could start alongside Bouknight and Gaffney in the backcourt, giving Hurley a small but offensively potent lineup, start over Gaffney at point, or come off the bench and provide instant offense.
Cole is an absolute money shooter, he takes care of the ball, and has proven to be one of the better scorers in the country. The only caveat is that his historical play against top tier competition leaves something to be desired. Granted, that could also be a result of needing to do everything for a sub-par Howard squad. I think he shines in a more supportive role at UConn.
Junior Brendan Adams and top 50 4-star recruit Andre Jackson will fight for minutes on the wing, as well as starting time. Adams is great defender per Synergy and functions mostly as a spot-up threat offensively, though he’s yet to shoot well during a season in college. Jackson can literally fly – very few players in the country can dunk like him; he has overwhelming athleticism that should immediately translate at some level. Redshirt freshman Richie Springs may see fringe minutes on the wing, but his size will also throw him in the mix for frontcourt run.
UConn is deep in the backcourt and arguably deeper in the frontcourt – that is if Tyler Polley and Akok Akok can play at some point. Polley tore his ACL in January and Akok tore his Achilles in February; both likely miss at least some time but could be major difference makers in the latter half of the year. Polley is extremely long and has a ton of potential as a potent stretch 4. Akok is a fantastic shot blocker who can step outside the arc and finish on the block. Both players are potential game changers once healthy.
Josh Carlton will man center duties after leading the AAC in OR% as a junior. Like Akok, Carlton is a good shot blocker, and he can take up space in the paint. Isaiah Whaley will see starts at the 4 if Polley isn’t ready to go to begin the season. Whaley stepped up after Akok’s injury and was a nightly double-double threat. Continuing with the shot blocking theme on this roster, Whaley ranked second in the AAC in block rate and was a bona fide glass cleaner when on the floor. From the freshman ranks, look for the 6’9” 250 lb. Adama Sanogo to carve out a role inside – he’s a top 100 4-star who reclassed from 2021, though you’d never guess he’s on the younger side. Sanogo is a monster in the paint and has pretty good footwork for his size – he should be yet another rim protector / rebounder for the Huskies. Javonte Brown-Ferguson, another 2021 reclass, is an impossibly long, skinny 6’11” center with shot blocking potential. He could see time if Polley and/or Akok are out for an extended period.
UConn’s roster fits really well with what Hurley wants to do on defense. His goal is to run shooters off the three-point line and funnel ball handlers into the waiting arms of his army of shot blockers. The Huskies also press a fair amount (about 13% of the time in 2019-20) and look to speed up their opponent and force turnovers. Gilbert, for all his offensive flaws, was an excellent defender, but UConn has enough rim protection to at least be solid on this end of the floor once again.
Offensively, the Huskies get a lot of points via the offensive glass, which makes since given their immense size up front. Not a very prolific outside shooting team, UConn looks to attack the basket off the dribble and earn trips to the foul line – usually in 4-out sets. Cole will be UConn’s best outside shooter; Bouknight, Adams, and Gaffney will need to improve if the Huskies are to be taken as serious long-ball threats.
Bottom Line: Before previewing UConn, I was resistant to the early hype the Huskies were receiving. Having now dug into this roster, I can see the potential. Like Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette, Xavier, and Butler, the Huskies will be right in the mix for an at-large bid and a 3rd place finish in the Big East.
7. Xavier
Key Returners: Paul Scruggs, KyKy Tandy, Jason Carter, Zach Freemantle
Key Losses: Naji Marshall, Tyrique Jones, Quentin Goodin, Bryce Moore
Key Newcomers: Nate Johnson (Gardner Webb), Dwon Odom, CJ Wilcher, Colby Jones, Bryan Griffin (DII), Dieonte Miles (Redshirt), Adam Kunkel (Belmont)***, Ben Stanley (Hampton)***
*** Kunkel and Stanley are awaiting waivers to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: Travis Steele fared better in his second season at the helm of the Musketeers but still failed to live up to preseason expectations. After being picked 3rd in the Big East preseason poll and 17th overall by KenPom, Xavier stumbled to an 8-10 conference record, finishing T-6th in the Big East and 45th in KenPom. Despite a good start to the year, there was no guarantee Xavier would even make the NCAA Tournament after losing three straight to end the season including an opening round conference tourney defeat to DePaul. With two subpar seasons under his belt, the pressure is on for Steele to start producing – Xavier fans are accustomed to seeing quality basketball.
Xavier loses two key pieces from last year’s squad in Naji Marshall, who opted to turn pro after his junior season, and Tyrique Jones, a human wrecking ball inside. The Quentin Goodin loss would have seemed significant prior to the start of last season, but the athletic point guard just never lived up to his potential. To replace the departed, Steele brings in a top 25 freshman recruiting class and adds two talented collegiate transfers (four if waivers fall their way). This year’s focus should be improving upon the school’s worst offense in the KenPom era (dating back to 1997), an offense that was forced to play through the paint due to a severe lack of shooting on the roster. Jones’s dominance on the block and on the glass wasn’t enough to make up for Xavier being one of the worst spot-up shooting teams in the country and two of its most prolific three-point shooters knocking down 28% of their combined 250 3PA.
Shooting help will be found by way of Gardner Webb transfer Nate Johnson and 4-star freshman CJ Wilcher, two wings who come in with reputations for setting nets ablaze. Johnson, a 2nd Team All-Big South member last year, knocked down 41.2% of his three-pointers last season on a high volume and expanded his game to be a more dynamic offensive player. Wilcher is a big SG at 6’6” who can play multiple spots and hit shots from anywhere beyond the arc. Both players will fight for starts in what should be a talented Xavier backcourt. Belmont transfer Adam Kunkel, who hails from the Cincy area, would also be a large boost to the Muskies’ shooting effort if he’s granted a waiver. Kunkel knocked down 38.3% of his 206 3PA last season and should also compete for starting minutes if eligible.
Paul Scruggs and KyKy Tandy are set to be the stars of Steele’s backcourt, each poised to assume a bigger role in 2020-21 with the departures of Goodin and Marshall. Scruggs is a strong combo guard who can handle point duties and bully smaller opponents. He’s struggled with turnovers in each of his three years at Xavier but has shot over 37% from downtown the past two seasons. Scruggs was invaluable to the Musketeers last year on both ends of the floor, as shown by the squad dropping its three final contests while he was out with injury. As a senior, Scruggs should be the undisputed leader of the team and pace the Musketeers in scoring.
Tandy, a Big East All-Freshman Team selection in 2019-20, is due for an explosion in his second year. He shot well from deep as a rookie but forced the issue too much off the bounce. Tandy should have one of the two starting guard spots locked down when the season starts – like Scruggs, he’s a strong guard who plays in control and uses his muscle to make things happen.
If either Scruggs or Tandy should struggle, look for 4-star point guard Dwon Odom to see minutes in his first season in Cincy. Odom is set to be the point guard of the future with his next-level athleticism and college-ready frame, and he should be able to contribute immediately with his dynamism and quickness off the dribble. 3-star wing Colby Jones, brother of Arkansas guard CJ Jones, could also crack the rotation in his rookie season. Jones does a bit of everything on the floor and projects as a solid two-way player for the Muskies.
Jones’s graduation leaves the frontcourt in the hands of Jason Carter and Zach Freemantle, two big men who are best described as “finesse” over “power”. Carter was sufficient in his first season coming over from Ohio, he’s a stretch forward who can play some wing and contribute on the glass. Freemantle, another Big East All-Freshman honoree, started Xavier’s final 14 games last season and now looks to take that FR to SO leap alongside Tandy.
Freemantle isn’t the rebounder Jones was, but he can hold his own on the glass and is decent protecting the rim. Pairing Carter and Freemantle in the same lineup will lead to a much different looking Xavier attack – one that spaces the floor and could potentially play through 5-out looks.
DII transfer Bryan Griffin will look to replace some of the brawn left behind by Jones. Griffin led Division II in rebounding last year, pulling down 14.5rpg to go along with a healthy 19.6ppg scoring average. Zach Hankins paved the way for “DII to Xavier” success and all signs point to Griffin being able to meaningfully contribute. Despite his massive frame, Griffin is deceptively quick and can play out on the perimeter where he possesses a surprisingly deadly pull-up jumper. Additionally, Griffin should provide more resistance on the block and near the rim than Freemantle. 6’11” redshirt freshman Dieonte Miles might see some run after taking off a year to develop. Miles was raw coming out of high school and super skinny – it will be interesting to see how much he’s improved with a year of college practice under his belt; his length can be a serious asset.
Hampton transfer Ben Stanley would likely displace Carter in the starting five if granted a waiver. Stanley ranked 9th in the country in scoring last season, ranked 6th in the Big South in block rate, and ripped down boards at a high rate. His splits against top tier competition weren’t great, but he’ll have a much more capable supporting cast at Xavier than he did at Hampton.
Xavier’s strength last season was its defense, the best iteration by the program since 2009 per KenPom. The Muskies kept opposing teams off the glass, contested shots at the rim and from distance effectively, and shut down transition. Jones was an excellent defender and Marshall’s versatility was unique at the college level – with those two gone, it’s hard to see the Muskies recreating the same success on this end. However, there’s enough athleticism in the backcourt to at least be “pretty good” on the perimeter and the addition of Griffin could keep the rim protection afloat.
Bottom Line: Xavier should still be a competitive squad in 2020-21 despite its significant losses. If Scruggs can successfully ascend into a leadership role and Tandy and Freemantle take expected jumps in their second years, the Musketeers will be in position to punch an at-large bid to the Big Dance. There’s still a low floor here, however, and Steele has yet to prove he can lead a team that’s greater than the sum of its individual parts.
8. Butler
Key Returners: Bryce Nze, Aaron Thompson, Bryce Golden
Key Losses: Kamar Baldwin, Sean McDermott, Jordan Tucker, Henry Baddley, Derrik Smits. Khalif Battle
Key Newcomers: Jair Bolden (South Carolina), Scooby Johnson**, JaKobe Coles, Chuck Harris, Myles Tate, Myles Wilmoth, Bo Hodges (East Tennessee State)***
** Scooby Johnson tore his ACL this offseason and will miss the 2020-21 campaign
*** Bo Hodges is awaiting to receive a waiver to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook:
LaVall Jordan looked his critics in the eye and gave them a big ole middle finger. Following a disappointing 2018-19 season, Jordan blew away expectations last year, leading his Bulldogs to a 22-9 (10-8) record and prime position for a high seed in March Madness. Butler was picked 8th in the Big East preseason poll but on January 10th sat in the top five in the country with a sterling 15-1 (3-0) mark. Though the Dogs cooled off some during the meat of conference play, they scrapped and fought every single game and proved they could hang with the other top teams in the league. This season promises to be a challenging one for Jordan with the loss of Kamar Baldwin and several other key pieces. He’ll have a couple upperclassmen but for the most part will be relying on a bunch of young guys to compete for another NCAA Tournament appearance.
The glaring weakness of this year’s Butler team is its lack of star power – there is no “go-to” player on the squad, a role Baldwin played for four years and one Jordan Tucker was expected to somewhat assume. Because of this, Butler will really have to lean in to its “scrappy” reputation it earned last season – hustle plays win ball games and the Dogs hustled their asses off in 2019-20.
Bryce Nze and Bryce Golden arrived on campus at the same time two years ago and presumably started their conversation with a hearty “Bryce to meet you”. The two Bryces had to wait until last season to see meaningful minutes and, boy, did they deliver. If you look up “hustle play” and/or “junkyard dog” in the dictionary, you’ll find a picture of “Bryce^2”. Nze is the guy everyone wants on their team – he only takes good shots, he rebounds on both ends of the floor, he defends, and he hustles his ass off. Every time I watched a Butler game last year, I came away with the same thought: Bryce Nze was the unsung hero of that team.
Similarly, Golden creates plenty of extra possessions for the Dogs and stepped up in a big way as a sophomore, starting every single game. Golden ranked 6th in the Big East in OR% and, like his brother Grant at Richmond, is a skilled passer from the post and top of the key. Neither Bryce will be a “go-to” scorer offensively, but the pair can and will win Butler some games this year.
Butler’s offense ranked top 25 nationally last season, the second time its ranked as high in Jordan’s three-year tenure. Jordan took the pace to a screeching halt, ranking in the bottom 15th nationally in tempo and dead last in the conference. His team ran a ton of pick-n-roll (11th most in the country), mostly for Baldwin, took care of the ball, and scored in a balanced manner in the halfcourt. Baldwin was the 3rd highest used player in the Big East last season, so points will likely be harder to come by in 2020-21. The Bulldogs will need to channel their inner fundamentals and play the epitome of team basketball.
Point guard Aaron Thompson returns to run the offense; he’s a steady table setter who does not shoot from the perimeter (only 13 3PA last season). Thompson’s greatest value is his lockdown defense; he’ll guard the opponent’s best offensive backcourt player on a nightly basis. South Carolina transfer Jair Bolden should pair nicely with Thompson with his ability to light it up from deep. Bolden, who comically wears #52, started 15 games for the Cocks last season and shot over 41% from long distance. With his ability to pull from just about anywhere, Bolden will shoulder a large chunk of the scoring load in his final collegiate season.
East Tennessee State transfer Bo Hodges has a legitimate case for a waiver given Steve Forbes’s departure to Wake Forest, but we’d be fools to trust the NCAA will do the right thing. It seems the COVID environment has made the transfer process more lenient, so hopefully Hodges is able to suit up for the Dogs this season. If he’s good to go, Hodges would likely start and add a heavy dose of scoring and defense to the rotation.
Three returners, Christian David, Markeese Hastings, and John-Michael Mulloy, will all be in the mix for playing time off the bench, but there’s plenty of competition in the incoming freshman class. David could earn a few starts once he’s fully recovered from an ACL tear suffered in January, while Hastings should remain in a reserve role on the wing and Mulloy in a reserve role in the post.
Jordan didn’t play a large rotation in 2019-20 and likely won’t this season either with a significant chunk of his roster made up of freshmen. Five newbies arrive in Indianapolis this season, all of whom are consensus 3-stars per 247Sports. 6’6” wing Carlos “Scooby” Johnson would have carved out a spot in the rotation in his first year, but an ACL tear this summer will force him to reshirt. Fellow freshmen JaKobe Coles and Myles Wilmoth are natural 4s, but either can get away playing some 5 in place of Golden/Nze. Coles is a hefty frontcourt presence who possesses deft touch from the outside – conditioning will be his #1 improvement point heading into the season. Wilmoth, the #1 recruit out of New York, is a long forward with shot-blocking potential. He has some ways to go offensively, but he isn’t totally devoid of skill.
Freshman point guards Chuck Harris and Myles Tate are two players to keep an eye on both this year and beyond. Harris is listed as a 4-star by some publications; he’s a quick, strong lead guard who can stop on a dime and shoot a bit from the outside. Tate has a mean crossover and nice looking set-shot; he and Harris can both be worthy Thompson backups and play off the ball as well.
Butler’s defense last season was the school’s best since 2015 and ranked #1 in the country in FG% allowed on 2P jumpers. Nze and Golden were great at defending the rim (with positioning, not so much with shot blocking) and Thompson and co. manned the three-point arc admirably. With the two Bryces and Thompson back in the mix, Butler’s defense should continue to be a strength – and Jordan will need it to be on par or better than last year with a presumed drop in offensive efficiency.
Bottom Line: The Big East is a giant muddled mess once you get past Villanova and Creighton. Jordan has proven he can exceed expectations in the past, but this year he’ll have to do it with a significantly younger roster and without a true #1 scoring option. Butler should remain competitive in the middle of the Big East and fight for an at-large bid, but it’ll be an uphill battle.
9. St. John’s
Key Returners: Rasheem Dunn, Marcellus Earlington, Julian Champagnie, Greg Williams Jr., Josh Roberts, David Caraher
Key Losses: LJ Figueroa, Mustapha Heron, Nick Rutherford
Key Newcomers: Arnaldo Toro (George Washington), Vince Cole (JUCO), Isaih Moore (JUCO), Posh Alexander, Dylan Wusu, John McGriff (Redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it one million times: I do not understand why Mike Anderson was fired at Arkansas. Anderson has succeeded at every school he’s led, dating back to UAB in the early 2000s and Missouri prior to taking over in Fayetteville. 2019 was a difficult season for the Razorbacks – they lost nearly everyone from a tournament squad the year prior, but Anderson still exceeded preseason expectations despite falling short of the Big Dance. No matter – one team’s trash is another team’s treasure, and the Johnnies upgraded big time when they fired Chris Mullin and hired Mike Anderson.
St. John’s was impressive in the non-conference portion of its schedule in 2019-20, finishing 11-2 with wins over Arizona and West Virginia. Like their conference colleague DePaul, however, the Johnnies crashed in Big East play, floundering to a 5-13 record T-8th place finish. The Red Storm were awful in true road games last season, winning just once on another team’s floor (DePaul), but they had some real punch at home as shown by a 20-point blowout over Creighton on March 1st. Early this offseason, St. John’s looked to be a real contender for an at-large bid, but the loss of LJ Figueroa to the transfer market is a crushing blow.
The Big East is wide open this season apart from the top two spots, so with a coach like Anderson and a wealth of young talent, St. John’s hopes to return to the Big Dance are still very much alive. Anderson’s style is a well-known commodity at this point, his teams look to score in transition on offense (16th fastest pace in the country last year) and attack the rim. The Johnnies were limited by their awful shooting last year which was multiplied by ranking in the bottom 50 nationally in shot selection, per Dribble Handoff. Anderson runs a spread attack in the halfcourt, so having at least one or two shooters on the floor is a necessity, otherwise opposing teams can zone or pack it in against the Red Storm without too much worry.
Defensively, Anderson runs his version of his mentor Nolan Richardson’s 40 Minutes of Hell, a high-pressure system in which the Johnnies look to speed up the opposing team, force turnovers, and make ball handlers uncomfortable. St. John’s pressed at the 15th highest rate in the country last season and ranked 2nd in steal rate. In the halfcourt, St. John’s takes away paint looks and throws in 2-3 matchup zone looks as a change of pace. Anderson’s roster this season is fit to run his preferred pressure style of play – his wings and backcourt are long and adept at swiping the opposing dribbler’s rock.
Offense will dictate how successful the Johnnies can be this season. Step one for being a good offensive squad this year is to find shooting – St. John’s was just 32.1% as a team from three last season and its two best shooters, Figueroa and Mustapha Heron are now gone. JUCO transfer Vince Cole could be the antidote to St. John’s three-point illness. Cole was a 1st Team NJCAA All-American last year and is ranked as the #6 JUCO prospect in the country per jucorecruiting.com. Last year, Cole shot nearly 45% from three-point land, over 90% from the FT line, and poured in 21.4ppg. At 6’6”, Cole gives the Johnnies significant length in the backcourt at the 2-guard position and a deadly spot-up weapon they did not have this past season.
Junior guard Greg Williams will also be one of the Johnnies’ key shooters, likely splitting time as a starter as he did in 2019-20. Defensively, Williams was one of the best on-ball perimeter defenders on the roster last year. Former Houston Baptist wing and Southland Freshman of the Year David Caraher will look to rediscover his stroke after shooting just 25% from long distance following a rookie year in which he converted 37.4% from three-point land. Caraher is a terrific scorer, though he struggled against top tier competition. A year of Big East play under his belt should help his game tremendously.
Returning point guard Rasheem Dunn, formerly of St. Francis NY, is just a career 25% three-point shooter but proved to be invaluable after coming over from the NEC. Dunn makes up for his shooting woes by not turning the ball over, scoring off the bounce (particularly out of the pick-n-roll), and playing solid on-ball defense. While he should be the starting PG this season, freshman Posh Alexander is the point guard of the future. Alexander, a 5’11” lead guard out of the Bronx, fell in recruiting rankings due to injury during his senior year of high school. Because of this, Alexander is flying under the radar as a potential impact Big East addition. He’s super quick, extremely bouncy, tough, physical, and strong – I cannot see him not succeeding in college; he has that “it” factor, a certain swagger that a successful college guard needs. His high school teammate, Dylan Wusu, likely won’t play too much in a crowded St. John’s backcourt, but former 3-star RS FR John McGriff will compete for minutes.
Sophomore wing Julian Champagnie is the player to watch on St. John’s this season. A Big East All-Freshman team member last year, Champagnie does everything on the court from rebounding to scoring to blocking shots and plays multiple positions. Champagnie’s size makes him nearly impossible to guard on the perimeter, and he’s strong enough to bang in the post and guard Big East forwards.
With Figueroa gone, Champagnie’s scoring load will need to increase and he’ll be counted on to step into more of an alpha role.
Look for Champagnie to compete for a spot on the All-Conference First Team in 2020-21 and lead the Johnnies in multiple statistical categories.
Anderson has significant depth in the frontcourt this season which should allow Champagnie to play more out on the perimeter. Juniors Marcellus Earlington and Josh Roberts both have starting experience and a penchant for dominating the glass. Earlington is an undersized 4-man who took a major leap his sophomore season after barely seeing the floor as a freshman. He ranked in the top ten in the Big East in OR% and is a burly defensive asset. Roberts, a long 6’9” forward, is a beast on the boards and ranked 33rd in the country in block rate last year.
Two transfers, Arnaldo Toro (George Washington) and Isaih Moore (JUCO) will push Earlington and Roberts for playing time. Toro has been injury prone that last few years but when healthy he’s one of the country’s top rebounders and a solid rotational big. Moore was a 3rd Team NJCAA All-American last year and the 14th ranked JUCO prospect in the class of 2020. He’s began his career at Charleston where he received seldom minutes and then became a double-double machine for one of the best JUCO teams in the nation just a year later. Moore’s ability to run the floor in transition makes him a perfect fit for the Johnnies’ offense.
Bottom Line: If St. John’s still had LJ Figueroa, we’d be talking about a borderline top 40 team who could realistically expect to finish in the top half of the Big East. Figueroa’s absence makes St. John’s outlook much less certain and significantly lowers its floor. Mike Anderson will have this team competing on a nightly basis, but the Johnnies will need to shoot well in order to make a serious run at the NCAA Tournament.
Tier 4
10. Georgetown
Key Returners: Jahvon Blair, JaMorko Pickett, Qudus Wahab
Key Losses: Mac McClung, Omer Yurtseven, Terrell Allen, Jagan Mosely
Key Newcomers: Donald Carey (Siena), Jalen Harris (Arkansas), Chudier Bile (Northwestern State), Jamari Sibley, Kobe Clark
*** Editor’s note: Tyler Beard is taking a prep year and will not be on the roster this season. The preview has been edited accordingly. Shout out to @BasketballOP for the heads up.
Lineup:
Outlook: 2019-20 was a strange season for the Georgetown Hoyas, a team that was overrated to the nth degree by nearly every national publication and casual fan in the country. We were bashed for not including the Hoyas in our preseason top 40 last year, refusing to believe a giant leap could actually come to fruition. While we ended up being correct in our initial assessment, Georgetown had flashes of brilliance last season and certainly exceeded our expectations on more than one occasion. The weirdest part of last year’s campaign was Georgetown’s demonstrable improvement after James Akinjo and Josh LeBlanc left the team, an exodus that by all common sense should have crippled it completely. Jim Boeheim quipped he knew the Hoyas would be better without Akinjo following a loss at Capital One Arena, a statement that ended up being prophetic. Georgetown was a wrecking ball ATS in December and had enough Q1 wins by mid-February to be seriously considered for an at-large bid to the Dance. Ultimately, injuries and a lack of depth caught up with the Hoyas and they dropped their final six Big East games to finish 5-13.
Patrick Ewing now enters his 4th season as head coach of G’Town - though he’s a legend at the school, one has to think his job isn’t 100% safe. Ewing has brought in big name recruits but has failed to bring the program back to the NCAA Tournament, an event it has missed out on every year since 2015. With Mac McClung’s transfer to Texas Tech this offseason and Omer Yurtseven’s graduation, it’s hard to believe the Hoyas can end that Tourney drought in 2020-21.
Who scored for this team? That’s a question in need of an answer if Georgetown is to shock the world and make a push in the Big East. McClung and Yurtseven were by far the highest used players on last season’s roster and James Akinjo was a ball dominant PG during his year and a half tenure. When Yurtseven and/or McClung sat last year, Georgetown scored a measly 0.96 PPP, per Hoop Lens.
The two highest-used returning players are Jahvon Blair and JaMorko Pickett, two seniors who have been career role players thus far. Blair came into his own late in the year and played 40 minutes in seven of the Hoyas’ final 11 games. He can shoot, handle the rock, and create his offense to a certain extent. Blair isn’t capable of being a high-usage #1 option on a tourney team, but he’s a vital piece to Georgetown’s postseason hopes. Pickett is the most versatile player on the squad, a 6’8” wing who can play the 3 or 4. He knocked down 37.6% of his 3PA last season and is a proven solid defender, able to block shoots and rack up steals with his length. Ewing’s offenses have consistently ranked among the nation’s best in assist rate, so “team basketball” isn’t a foreign concept, it’s just hard to win consistently in college basketball without a go-to option.
Point guard duties will lie in the capable hands of Jalen Harris, an Arkansas transfer who comes to DC after seeing his role dwindle under the tutelage of Eric Musselman. Harris is a poor shooter, but he can set the table for his teammates and is a solid Power 6 lead guard. Georgetown will rely on Harris to create offense via penetration and out of the pick-n-roll. Freshman PG Tyler Beard, a 3-star prospect out of Whitney Young, will be taking a prep year this season before arriving at Georgetown in 2021-22. Beard is a hard-nosed attacker and high-level athlete. 3-star PG Dante Harris will push for ball handling minutes; he’s super quick and can function as a “true” pass-first point guard.
Freshmen wings Kobe Clark (3-star from Vashon) and Jamari Sibley (4-star from Oak Hill) could both develop into serviceable college players in the next couple years, but neither is a good enough scorer yet to take over an offense. Sibley is the more polished of the pair, an athletic, skinny forward who projects as a slasher / paint scorer and dangerous transition threat. Defensively, expect Sibley to be a real factor with his length, and if his developing jump shot gets more consistent, he could be one of the Hoyas’ better players in a year or two. Clark is long as well and offers more in the shooting department, though he isn’t a finished product. Siena grad transfer Donald Carey, now on his third DI school after spending time at Mount Saint Mary’s coming out of high school, will provide scoring and shooting on the wing. His addition is large for a team looking for a player who can do what he does best.
Unranked freshmen TJ Berger, a former Penn commit, and Collin Holloway, a versatile wing, likely ride the pine in their inaugural seasons, but playing time is very much up for grabs with so many new faces on the roster.
Inside, Ewing appears to have a legit anchor in 6’10” sophomore Qudus Wahab. Wahab stepped up late in the year and ranked in the top five in the Big East in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. Defensively, he’s one of the fiercest shot blockers in the conference, and though he offers little more than catch-and-dunk on offense, he’ll create plenty of second chance opportunities on the glass.
Northwestern State transfer Chudier Bile will be an interesting addition to the squad; he was a 2nd Team All-SLC selection last season and led the conference in usage. Bile originally committed to Bradley but never played for the Braves before spending two years at the JUCO level. He clearly has talent - including the ability to hit outside shots from the 4 spot:
But, I am extremely skeptical he has the impact that some might expect. The Big East seems like a stretch for Bile to be anything more than a role player off the bench, which is supported by his splits against top tier competition.
Elsewhere in the frontcourt, Ewing naturally has two more 6’11” options to throw into the game in SO Timothy Ighoefe and RS FR Malcolm Wilson. Ighoefe, a big man from Nigeria, posted insane rebound rates when he saw the court last season and could actually develop into a nice backup for Wahab in 2020-21. Wilson is a very long, very skinny shot blocker who might still be too raw to count on for minutes.
Bottom Line: Georgetown seems destined to finish near the bottom of the Big East once again this season. McClung’s transfer was the death knell for a team that severely lacks scoring. On the other end of the floor, the Hoyas were the conference’s worst defensive team last season, giving up far too many open looks from the outside. While defense should be the calling card of the 2020-21 squad, it’s hard to see them improving so significantly over last year to warrant consideration for being ranked any higher than 10th heading into this season.
11. DePaul
Key Returners: Charlie Moore, Romeo Weems, Jaylen Butz, Darious Hall, Markese Jacobs, Nick Ongenda, Oscar Lopez
Key Losses: Paul Reed, Jalen Coleman-Lands
Key Newcomers: Javon Freeman-Liberty (Valparaiso), Ray Salnave (Monmouth), Brian Patrick (Purdue Fort Wayne), Paul Paulicap (Manhattan), Kobe Elvis
Lineup:
Outlook: DePaul teased the hearts of its Chicago faithful early last season, bursting out of the gates in a blaze of glory to a 12-1 non-conference record with wins at Iowa, at Minnesota, and against Texas Tech. I attended the Texas Tech game and could feel the energy in the arena from the jaded Demon fans who haven’t had something to cheer for in well over a decade. Of course, DePaul quickly came crashing back down to Earth in Big East play, assuming its rightful place in the cellar once again. Since 2009, the Blue Demons have finished dead last in the Big East TEN TIMES – though last year’s team was Dave Leitao’s best of his second stint at the school, DePaul still couldn’t manage to dig its way to the middle of the conference pack. Leitao now enters his 6th season of his second stint at DePaul and 9th overall, but with the recent retirement of AD Jean Lenti Ponsetto, a villain amongst DePaul sports fans, Leitao’s time at the helm may be running out. Unless of course he can somehow get his Demons out of the Big East basement in 2020-21.
Paul Reed’s decision to turn pro is a crushing but not unexpected blow to DePaul’s hopes for competitiveness. Reed was a 2nd Team All-Big East selection last year, averaged a double-double, and impacted the game on both ends of the floor. Without Reed on the court last season, DePaul was arguably one of the worst teams in the country:
Info per Hoop Lens
His absence will especially be felt on the defensive end where he was a shot-blocking terror in the paint and enforcer on the glass. On the other end, DePaul was one of the worst shooting teams in the country last year, but Reed helped make up for that with his tenaciousness on the offensive boards. In addition to Reed, Jalen Coleman-Lands also departs, another player who really helped spark the Demon offense despite his overall inefficiency. JCL was one of the few Demons capable of shooting from the outside and was liable to shoot himself into a hot streak every now and then.
Coleman-Lands’s departure in particular makes it paramount that Javon Freeman-Liberty receives a waiver to play right away. JFL, a Valpo transfer, is a high-scoring guard who can come in and lead DePaul in scoring while also providing lockdown perimeter defense. Last season, JFL earned a spot on the Missouri Valley’s All-Conference 1st Team and he’s a 2x MVC All-Defensive Team member as well. Though he was inefficient against “top tier” competition, he still lit up the scoreboard, dropping 32 points on Cincinnati and 21 on Arkansas last year. Unfortunately for DePaul, JFL won’t help improve upon a terrible team 3P%, but he can score in many other ways on the court, particularly off the dribble.
Charlie Moore will line up alongside JFL in the backcourt, resuming his role as point guard and team leader. Moore paces an offense that played at the 15th fastest tempo in the country last season – the Demons look to score in transition and attack the rim; as a team, they don’t look to shoot many threes. Moore took control of the squad last year after coming over from Kansas where he didn’t see much run following a good freshman year at Cal. He ranked 4th in the Big East in minutes in 2020-21, 5th in usage, and 2nd in assist rate, proving to be one of the better point guards in the league. Moore’s 80% FT clip suggests he CAN shoot, but career averages of 39.8% from 2P range and 32.1% from 3P range tell a different tale. Moore’s main issue has been shot selection, something that likely continues to be a problem considering his expected scoring load.
Two more transfers, Ray Salnave of Monmouth and Brian Patrick of Purdue Fort Wayne, will assume large roles in the backcourt this season and bring much needed shooting to the roster. Salnave was a 2nd Team All-MAAC selection last year and is a rather unique player in that his KenPom suggested position is “PF-PG”. His strength allows Salnave to rebound and score inside like a forward, but his ball skills, size, and shooting ability allows him to thrive on the perimeter. He could serve as a jack-of-all-trades player for the Demons, filling in whichever position on the floor is needed. Patrick, a former K State Wildcat, will add three-point shooting off the bench, something DePaul did not have in its backcourt rotation in 2019-20.
The key to DePaul’s success this season rests in the hands of sophomore Romeo Weems, a former top 75 recruit and a member of last year’s Big East All-Freshman squad. Weems was a low-usage player on offense last year but provided a steady diet of outside shooting and scoring off the bounce. With Reed gone, Weems cannot be low usage in 2020-21; he will be tasked with helping make up for Reed’s lost production and likely see more minutes at the 4-spot than in his FR season. Defensively, Weems is a versatile stopper who racks up steals and blocks while guarding multiple positions.
Pairing with Weems in the frontcourt will be Jaylen Butz, a solid though undersized 5-man who makes up for his height with his impressive athleticism. Butz ranked 2nd in the Big East in FT rate last season, grabbed a plethora of offensive boards, and scored effectively on the block.. Manhattan transfer Pauly Paulicap’s decision to join the Blue Demons this summer is an EXTREMELY huge boost to an undermanned frontcourt. Last season, Paulicap led the MAAC in usage and ranked in the top three in OR%, DR%, and block rate. His presence will help make up for Reed’s lost defensive and rebounding production.
Former Arkansas transfer Darious Hall will continue his role as 3/4 tweener off the pine. Hall was objectively terrible offensively last season, posting an 81.2 o-rating, a high turnover rate, and 37.9% eFG%. He’ll need to rediscover his freshman stroke for DePaul’s offense to reach its “above average” goal.
Leitao’s remaining minutes will be split between sophomores Markese Jacobs and Oscar Lopez and freshman Kobe Elvis in the backcourt, and sophomore Nick Ongenda up front. Jacobs, a Chicago native, was an ESPN top 100 recruit in the class of 2019 after averaging over 30 PPG in high school – injuries slowed him down last season, but he could be a factor at either guard spot once fully healthy. Elvis comes by way of Canada – he’s a crafty, skinny lead guard who can knife through the lane for layups or kickouts. I don’t see him playing much this season, but he could develop into a key contributor down the road. Ongenda’s playing time likely sees an uptick this season after he saw the floor more in the latter half of last year. Originally in the class of 2020, Ongenda reclassed to come to college early. His recruiting pedigree suggests he can could blossom into a serviceable frontcourt contributor – at the very least he’ll provide rebounding and shot blocking.
Bottom Line: Like last season, DePaul will not be an awful basketball team. However, it’s hard to see the Demons finishing higher than 10th in the Big East – the program just hasn’t done anything in the past umpteen years to prove otherwise. Defense will have to be the calling card for the Demons because scoring will likely still be a struggle, even with the addition of Javon Freeman-Liberty. The Demons should be a fierce perimeter defensive squad and rack up turnovers, and there’s reason to believe Paulicap can keep the interior defense afloat. I’m rooting for DePaul’s success, but I’m not holding my breath.