- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Devan Cambridge, Allen Flanigan, Jamal Johnson
Key Losses: Isaac Okoro, Samir Doughty, Austin Wiley, J’Von McCormick, Anfernee McLemore, Danjel Purifoy
Key Newcomers: Sharife Cooper, JT Thor, Chris Moore, Justin Powell, Dylan Cardwell
Lineup:
Outlook:
The Tigers have a lot of shoes to fill from their senior-laden 2019-20 squad. In addition to the departure of freshman phenom Isaac Okoro, Auburn loses five players to graduation, four of whom were regular starters. That exodus sets the Tigers up to be one of the youngest teams in college basketball this season.
Most will look at Auburn’s shiny 25-6 mark from last year and assume it was a smashing success, but from an analytical perspective, Bruce Pearl’s team had its fair share of flaws. The Tigers’ offense ranked outside the KenPom top 30 and its defense ranked outside the top 50. To boot, Auburn was 5-0 in overtime contests, driving its position as the 7th luckiest team in college basketball, per KenPom. So why should we expect a team that loses six key players and that, from an analytical standpoint, was a shade inside the top 35 to perform at around the same level? For one, Bruce Pearl has earned a “program bump” of sorts with his ability to consistently win no matter the roster turnover. And secondly, the Tigers have a bevy of young talent highlighted by a top ten recruiting class.
The crown jewel of this year’s recruiting class is 5-star PG and McDonald’s All-American Sharife Cooper. With J’Von McCormick and Samir Doughty exiting, Cooper fills an enormous need at the most important position in basketball. Much like how McCormick and Doughty replaced Jared Harper and Bryce Brown, so too will Cooper be looked upon to run the offense and create plays for his teammates. The best way to describe Cooper is “baller” – he’s quick and savvy with the ball and just has that swag needed to succeed at the highest level.
Cooper’s handle and passing ability will allow him to create opportunities on offense, and his 30-point scoring average in high school proves he can put the ball in the basket as well. It’s a lot to ask of a freshman to come in and be the team’s best player, but Cooper has the makings to do just that. Sophomore guard Tyrell Jones will likely be Cooper’s main backup, and Pearl has his usual set of wings all capable of chipping into the ball-handling effort.
Pearl’s other big get on the recruiting trail is top-50 prospect JT Thor, a 6’9” lefty forward capable of playing out on the wing or on the block. Thor’s super-long arms and mobility should allow him to be an excellent defender out of the gates, and his ability to play sort of a point-forward role will help open up Auburn’s offensive attack. Strength is Thor’s most obvious weakness currently, but he has plenty of talent to make an immediate impact in the SEC.
Offensively, look for the Tigers to once again focus on pushing the pace in transition, particularly off the defensive glass. Pearl’s squads prioritize scoring off the primary break before settling into halfcourt offense. Auburn’s league leading DR% last year helped it find ample opportunities on the break to spark what sometimes was an iso-centric halfcourt attack.
Watch Cambridge at the top of the screen sprint on the rebound…
Cambridge executing the break to perfection, finishing his sprint to the ball-side corner.
The past two years, we’ve seen Auburn heavily reliant on talented ball dominant guards to create their own offense, something that this current roster is somewhat lacking, unless Cooper is a star from day one.
Shooting is the main area where the Tigers must improve in 2020-21; Auburn was 3rd in the SEC in 3PA rate but dead last in 3P%, not a winning combination. Pearl not having as many mouths to feed this year could actually help Auburn’s efficiency – where last year he had Austin Wiley, a bevy of guards, and Okoro needing the ball in their hands, this year’s squad should have a clearer pecking order offensively.
Of the returners, Devan Cambridge has the most potential to break out and assume a key role. Cambridge had two scoring explosions last season, going for 26 against South Carolina and 21 against LSU, thanks to his ability to get white hot from deep. The rising sophomore shot 37% from beyond the arc in SEC, but this year he’ll be asked to do more than just shoot. Good size and solid athleticism should allow Cambridge to take the next step.
Fellow sophomore Allen Flanigan could also carve out a key role in year two; he’s a strong lefty who is good off the bounce attacking the hoop. Flanigan’s greatest asset lies in his defensive versatility (able to guard three positions on the perimeter), but he’ll be looked upon to score off dribble drives in the Auburn offense. Jamal Johnson and freshman Justin Powell will assume the primary “spot-up shooter” roles, most likely off the pine. Powell in particular could see plenty of run with his smooth stroke.
Sophomore Jaylin Williams will compete for the starting 4 spot in a suddenly thin Auburn frontcourt. He’s yet another athlete at Pearl’s disposal and can play either the 3 or 4 on both ends. Freshman Chris Moore, a top-150 recruit, should see immediate playing time with his strength and athleticism. Unlike most freshmen, Moore has a college-ready body capable of banging with more experienced SEC bodies. Two big men, sophomore Babatunde Akingbola and freshman Dylan Cardwell, round out Auburn’s frontcourt rotation. Cardwell can run the floor and will add shot blocking and rebounding. Akingbola played mostly garbage time his freshman year, but with an open frontcourt, he could see some minutes with his face-up ability.
With an unproven roster, Auburn may need to rely on its defense to help win ball games. The Tigers press more than any other team in the SEC and look to force turnovers with their immense perimeter size, speed, and athleticism. The defensive versatility on this roster will be its true strength, with almost every player capable of defending multiple positions effectively.
Bottom Line: Auburn almost certainly takes a step back this season with so many players leaving from last year’s squad. However, the Tigers will still be an SEC contender with their elite talent and athleticism. If Cooper and Thor live up to their respective hype and Cambridge evolves into a reliable go-to option offensively, Pearl should have his squad once again fighting for a top-7 seed come March. This squad likely faces some ups and downs in the early going, but look for Pearl to right the ship heading into and throughout SEC play.