-Jim Root
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Javonte Perkins, R Sr., Saint Louis
Coach of the Year: Mark Schmidt, St. Bonaventure
Newcomer of the Year: Toumani Camara, Jr., Dayton
Freshman of the Year: DaRon Holmes, Dayton
Tier 2
2. Richmond
Key Returners: Jacob Gilyard, Grant Golden, Nathan Cayo, Nick Sherod (injury), Tyler Burton, Connor Crabtree, Andre Gustavson
Key Losses: Blake Francis
Key Newcomers: Jason Nelson, Marcus Randolph, Malcolm Dread, Aidan Noyes
Lineup:
Outlook: A week into the 2020-21 season, the Itsy-Bitsy Spiders looked like a national darling. They had beaten Kentucky by 12 in Lexington, backing up the considerable preseason hype that surrounded a team loaded with experience. Despite Nick Sherod’s preseason ACL tear, Richmond looked like a Top 25 outfit, one destined to make a push for an at-large bid out of an improved Atlantic 10.
Unfortunately, COVID and the injury gods had other ideas.
The Spiders faced three separate in-season COVID pauses – December 1st, January 12th, and January 31st – ultimately losing almost five combined weeks of their season. Some of the Spiders’ more baffling performances can likely be attributed to the start-and-stop nature of their calendar, most notably a home loss to La Salle following COVID pause #2. And when the A-10 Tournament finally rolled around, giving Richmond a chance to salvage what had become a disappointing campaign by securing the league’s auto-bid, both Blake Francis and Grant Golden were forced to the sideline with injuries, and the Spiders meekly bowed out to Duquesne before even making the quarterfinals.
COVID taketh away, but in a basketball sense, COVID also giveth: thanks to the NCAA’s pandemic-driven extra year, the Spiders will have a chance to run it back this year, albeit without Francis, the one senior who chose to move on. In fact, it’s quite tempting to just refer you to last year’s preview considering the roster and scheme continuity that should exist here, but we don’t cut corners at Three Man Weave (at least, that’s what we tell ourselves).
Francis’ absence robs the Spiders of an electric scorer, one who clearly boosted the team’s performance on the offensive end:
Obviously, the defense actually excelled without him, and we’ll get to that. Offensively, though, the Spiders will have a slightly different look without two jet-quick guards flanking Golden:
This five-out alignment is a staple of Chris Mooney’s Princeton offense. Golden has the freedom to dribble at either side for a handoff, and when both of those guys are lethal shooters and drivers, it puts immense pressure on the defense. Instead, that spot will now be filled primarily by Tyler Burton. Unlike Francis, Burton uses the screens exclusively as a way to pop behind the three-point line and get off a clean look:
Burton is a terrific shooter, so that’s a perfectly acceptable possession, but without the extra gear to explode to the rim, defenses will learn how to overplay that action. He has the athletic pop to add more to his game, and he did show well as a slasher in other contexts (namely, attacking closeouts).
Fortunately, Jacob Gilyard is back with his bag of tricks at point guard, and the 5’9 lightning bolt will continue to cause headaches thanks to his combination of speed and shooting. Gilyard excels at getting into gaps in the defense and forcing rotations, allowing the spread attack to score off kick-outs and ball movement. Sherod’s return from injury adds another prolific shooter (he hit 44% of his threes in 2019-20 on high volume), as will a fully healthy year for Connor Crabtree, a Tulane transfer who had started to emerge into a legit rotation piece last year before fracturing his foot.
Ultimately, though, the offense will be most dependent on Golden and his protégé Matt Grace. Whether it be at the top of the key in Richmond’s five-out alignment or when the Spiders play through him on the block, Golden’s incisive passing opens up the floor for everyone else. This was especially true for his frontcourt partner Nathan Cayo, who constantly found openings via cuts and duck-ins, knowing Golden (or Gilyard) would get him the ball:
Grace showed well in his two starts to end the year (12.0 PPG, zero turnovers in 49 minutes), but he’s not the same caliber of passer as Golden yet, so getting the veteran back for a super senior season is a massive boost to the attack.
As promised, we must discuss the Spiders’ defense as well, and it’s a complex discussion. On one hand, Richmond’s change to exclusively man-to-man in 2019 has clearly boosted the unit as a whole, helping to give Mooney his first top 100 defenses since 2015 (per KenPom’s AdjDE). Golden and Burton are a tremendous rebounding duo – Burton ranked 66th nationally in defensive rebound rate – and Gilyard is one of the peskiest defenders in the entire sport. He has ranked in the top 10 nationally in steal rate for four straight years, and he should shatter the NCAA career record with this extra season. As it stands, he’s 5th since 1985, trailing #1 John Linehan by 27.
On the other hand, though, the soft underbelly of the Spiders’ defense is a huge flaw. Per Hoop-Math, opponents shot 67.5% at the rim, which slots in at 336th in the country. Only ten teams gave up a higher conversion rate last year, and those teams combined to 54-159 overall (33-108 in conference play), with nary a member of that group finishing with a winning record. For all of Golden’s wizardry on offense, he is not a rim protector whatsoever defensively, so the pressure will be on the Spiders’ perimeter players to not get beat off the dribble. The returns of Sherod and Crabtree add more size to that group, so it’s not an impossible ask, but that Achilles heel at the rim will always loom against more athletic foes.
Bottom Line: After a long season of facing numerous struggles outside of their control, these Spiders look well-positioned to be a “post-hype sleeper” this year (meaning: breaking out the year after everyone was on the bandwagon), even without Francis. The defense should improve with Sherod and Crabtree back, and the offense will not fall far with Golden and Gilyard still in key facilitating and scoring roles. Burton has plenty of upside, as well, giving Richmond a potential NBA prospect, and returning 86.1% of minutes (per Bart Torvik) is perfect for Mooney’s system, which thrives on familiarity and instinctive reads. Mooney also got some very solid non-conference games on the schedule, so a push for an at-large bid is an entirely reasonable expectation this year if the roster’s health holds up.
3. Saint Louis
Key Returners: Javonte Perkins***, Gibson Jimerson, Yuri Collins, Terrence Hargrove, Fred Thatch, Martin Linssen
Key Losses: Jordan Goodwin, Hasahn French
Key Newcomers: Francis Okoro (Oregon), Rashad Williams (Oakland), Jordan Nesbitt (Memphis), DeAndre Jones (Central Arkansas)
Lineup:
*** - It was announced on 10/27 that Javonte Perkins tore an ACL and will miss the entire year. That’s obviously a devastating blow to the Billikens, meaning Nesbitt needs to be the real deal immediately. It also like drops the Bills to the bottom of Tier 2 or even into Tier 3.
Outlook: COVID was no friend of teams in the A-10. Some, like UMass, simply could not string together enough games to find any sense of rhythm. Others, like St. Bonaventure, got a late start and barely had a non-conference portion of the season. No team had a worse outcome than VCU straight up having to forfeit an NCAA Tournament game, but Saint Louis has a valid complaint as the runners up in the “most deflating season derailment.”
The Billikens started 7-1 with wins over LSU and NC State, looking eminently capable of seizing an at-large bid thanks to a rejuvenated offense to pair with the typically stingy defense. But then COVID took a crowbar to the Bills’ kneecaps, swiping more than a month away to start A-10 play while also (allegedly) ravaging most of the roster with symptomatic infections. The aftereffects were evident in the two games subsequent to the pause, losing to Dayton at home and then at La Salle to pour cold water on Billiken fans’ fervor.
So ends the “French and Goodwin” era in St. Louis, as the two program pillars opted not to use their extra years. Together, they take with them storied careers that included starting 229 of 231 combined games while engineering a much-needed resurgence for a Bills program that hit rock bottom from 2015-17. They helped cultivate a physical, defensive identity and dominated the glass on both ends of the court, and Coach Travis Ford will need to find a way to replicate (or at least approximate) the incredible all-around contributions that both players consistently made.
Fortunately, the Bills’ third star – wing scorer Javonte Perkins – did opt to use his additional season of eligibility, and he’ll be the cornerstone of this edition of SLU hoops. He infuses an element of three-level efficiency that the offense sorely lacked prior to his arrival, and his size (6’6, 210) combined with high skill level make him a matchup nightmare. He hit almost 38% of his triples last year on high volume, and he was just as potent at destroying poor closeouts, allowing him to rank in the 93rd percentile on “Spot Up” possessions, per Synergy:
Per Hoop-Explorer’s adjusted on/off numbers, the Bills scored 116.5 points per 100 possessions with Perkins; without him, that plummeted to 97.2. If SLU stays near the top of the A-10 standings, Perkins will be in the thick of the Player of the Year race.
As good as Perkins is, he is not fully in the “bring him to a street fight” mold that French and Goodwin were. If Ford wants to carry over that identity, especially on defense, he’ll need a few other pieces to step into larger roles. Perhaps the most important of those is Oregon transfer Francis Okoro, a shot-blocking menace who is coming back close to home after venturing to the Pacific Northwest for two years. The Nigerian native has outstanding upside as a finisher and paint enforcer, but he lost minutes as a sophomore at Oregon and should benefit from the change of scenery. Martin Linssen is a solid rotational piece as an effective interior scorer and terrific offensive rebounder (a SLU staple), but he lacks the upside that Okoro offers.
A few veterans fully capable of maintaining the French/Goodwin style should also ascend into bigger roles: wing Fred Thatch and ‘tweener forward Terrence Hargrove. Both local recruits (okay, Thatch is “regional”), they are stout physical presences who can guard several positions thanks to their strength and nasty streaks. Thatch is more of a downhill driver on offense, and his elite offensive rebounding from the wing should reasonably replace Goodwin’s contributions from that spot, while Hargrove actually flashed a silky jumper (42.4% on 33 attempts). Both will need to become more expansive offensive threats as they play more minutes to avoid too large a burden falling on Perkins.
Speaking of which: point guard Yuri Collins may be the fulcrum on which the SLU season hinges. He’s become an elite distributor and is a pesky on-ball defender at the point of attack, and he plays his tail off on both ends. However, his lack of shooting and penchant for committing turnovers has frequently undermined the SLU attack, particularly against shrewd game-planners. His splits as a pick-and-roll operator are severe: when he finished the possession (shot or turnover), SLU scored 0.553 points per possession (19th percentile), but when he found a passing option, that leapt to 1.111 PPP (78th percentile). Smart teams make him a scorer, and he must improve there.
As a potential alternative with more scoring juice, Ford scooped up DeAndre Jones, an impact creator from Central Arkansas with a smooth outside stroke, but Jones has struggled badly against high-level athleticism and has been turnover-prone himself. He’s also coming off a torn ACL, so his health is not guaranteed. Thus, Collins needs to blossom for the Bills to hit their ceiling.
If SLU needs offensive pop, it will look to wing shooters Gibson Jimerson and Rashad Williams, both of whom have the microwave ability to bury three 3s in 90 seconds. Jimerson is particularly lethal thanks to a lightning quick release and positional size at 6’5, but he often found himself benched for defensive miscues. Williams is an interesting fit: he lives to launch, having taken 12+ triples on 11 different occasions last year, but he’s small and might be even more of a defensive liability than Jimerson. Williams will likely be used as a specialist at this level, brought in when the Bills are in droughts offensively.
The ultimate X-factor on both ends of the floor is Memphis transfer Jordan Nesbitt, who, like Okoro, is returning closer to home after a frustrating start to his college career. In fact, he basically did not see the floor for the Tigers despite being a former top 100 recruit, and that total lack of usage could indicate that he is not quite ready for the college game. Still, he adds another piece like Thatch and Hargrove that has size and can be a versatile defensive piece, and he has real offensive upside too – if only Ford can unlock it. Fellow 2020 recruit Markhi Strickland will also be in the mix for wing minutes after seeing limited opportunities as a freshman.
Bottom Line: SLU has plenty of intriguing pieces, both in terms of young players maturing into larger roles and with added pieces via the transfer portal. As it stands, most of those players are far better on one end of the floor or the other, so Ford will need several of them to expand their games if he hopes to have effective two-way lineups on the court. Discovering a new identity without the physicality of French and Goodwin is at the top of the to-do list, but at the very least, the Bills have a veteran backcourt with a star scorer who can draw defensive attention and make his teammates better. The floor is probably lower with this version than in years past, but the upside is certainly there as well if enough factors break right.
4. Dayton
Key Returners: Mustapha Amzil, Zimi Nwokeji, Elijah Weaver, RJ Blakney
Key Losses: Jalen Crutcher, Ibi Watson, Jordy Tshimanga, Rodney Chatman (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Toumani Camara (Georgia), DaRon Holmes, Kobe Elvis (DePaul), Kaleb Washington, Malachi Smith, Lynn Greer III, Richard Amaefule (ETSU)
Lineup:
Outlook: Oh, to go back to the glory days of the 2019-20 season. The sequel to that dream campaign was far more Caddyshack II than The Empire Strikes Back, as the Flyers never found any consistency and meekly exited in the first round of the NIT. Jalen Crutcher was brilliant, and Ibi Watson became a worthy Robin to his Batman, but outside of a late enrollee adding some scoring pop (more on him shortly), the rest of the roster just did not provide enough production on either end of the floor to vault Dayton back into the NCAA Tournament picture.
Injuries certainly played a part in draining the roster of potency, but even with the banged-up roster Dayton had should not have started conference play with losses to La Salle at home and @ Fordham in the first three contests. The Flyers would complete the “unholy trinity” of embarrassing defeats by dropping one at Saint Joe’s in late February, and though Dayton fans will miss the backcourt trio of Crutcher, Watson, and Rodney Chatman, turning the page to a new year felt necessary.
Without those three talented guards, this Flyer squad should be built around the talented frontcourt, which features a multitude of weapons that can hopefully unlock the spacing that made the ’19-20 Flyers so difficult to guard. Chief among these weapons is Mustapha Amzil, the aforementioned late enrollee who gave the Flyers a shot of much-needed adrenaline as the calendar turned to 2021. The uber-skilled Finnish forward has an inside-out game that makes him extremely difficult to defend at 6’10, particularly as a pick-and-pop threat:
Per Synergy, he ranked in the 95th percentile nationally in PnP actions, and with those skills, he racked up 22 points in his debut en route to tallying double-digits in his first six college games. He seemed to hit a wall late in the season, but with an actual offseason in the program, he looks poised to make a sizable leap (possibly one of the all-conference variety) in year two.
Amzil’s perimeter acumen should perfectly complement Georgia transfer Toumani Camara, a big-bodied slasher who excels at getting downhill against smaller or slower opponents. With Amzil pulling centers away from the rim (thus allowing Anthony Grant to run a ton of five-out looks, as he did in 2019-20), Camara should find plenty of lanes to attack, and the Belgian southpaw is also a tremendous transition finisher.
He has that in common with prized recruit DaRon Holmes, a top 50 prospect with mouthwatering potential. For now, Holmes – the highest-ranked recruit to ever commit to the school – is mostly an outstanding athlete who plays hard and finishes with authority, but he has shown enough of a burgeoning skill set to have Flyer fans ready to see just how high his ceiling is. Having multiple options in the paint is a huge relief for a team that was ridiculously limited there last year, and perhaps nothing demonstrates that more than the on/off splits for Jordy Tshimanga - a solid but unspectacular player:
The Flyers collapsed without him, and the newfound depth will be a boon to Grant’s system.
That group likely relegates Zimi Nwokeji to a reserve role, though there’s a chance Grant experiments with jumbo lineups that feature Nwokeji on the wing. He’s still somewhat raw, but like Holmes, he has outstanding potential, as evidenced by his (somewhat random) 29-point explosion against Rhode Island in mid-February. RJ Blakney and incoming freshman Kaleb Washington are more conventional options on the wing, and Blakney actually showed quite well as a freshman whenever he was healthy enough to get on the floor. Koby Brea also came on strong late after missing most of the preseason, and he’ll likely battle Washington for reserve minutes.
With Crutcher around as a multi-talented star at point guard, Grant’s offense went heavy on pick-and-rolls, but that could shift somewhat now that the Flyers have some legitimate interior threats. Without Obi Toppin and Josh Cunningham, the Flyers stopped getting quality looks inside almost instantly:
Holmes and Camara will do wonders for those numbers, but the Flyer guards need to avoid falling off a cliff in how they set up their frontcourt counterparts, as well. That’s where the rotation gets somewhat dicey, as former USC transfer Elijah Weaver has been anything but a model of efficiency during his college career. Beyond that, the options are somewhat limited: Kobe Elvis is probably better as an off-ball scoring threat after being a turnover factory as a freshman at DePaul, and two 3-star rookies – Malachi Smith and Lynn Greer III – will likely have some unevenness to their games, despite tantalizing upside. Both freshmen are hardnosed gamers likely to become four-year Flyer stalwarts (obligatory mention that Smith is from the Bronx and Greer III played in the storied Philly Catholic League), but asking freshmen to run the offense is rarely a route to efficiency as a team.
Dayton’s backcourt question marks embody one of the team’s key flaws last year: consistently losing the turnover battle. The Flyers had 61 more turnovers than their opponents, and that disparity gets significantly more gruesome if you remove Crutcher (114 assists, 71 turnovers). Taking care of the ball will be paramount with most of the team’s best offensive weapons residing at the forward spots: Weaver & Co. have to find a way to consistently feed them the ball in advantageous spots.
That’s a two-way problem, of course. Dayton ranked 13th in the A-10 in defensive turnover rate last year, and the Flyers’ inability to finish possessions either via steal or defensive rebound allowed opponents to rack up almost 200 more field goal attempts than the Flyers themselves (that’s a lot!). Grant’s man-to-man system is not designed to be particularly aggressive, so the steal numbers may stay low, but Holmes, Camara, and even Moulaye Sissoko (a bit player last season) will be counted on to reinforce the Flyers on the glass.
Bottom Line: Losing a program pillar like Crutcher is unquestionably a blow, but the Flyers should improve dramatically in a lot of the areas where they struggled last year, most notably in the paint on both ends. Holmes has already drawn Toppin comparisons, and though that’s obviously somewhat outrageous (Toppin was the NPOY in 2020!), he does have a similar game, and Camara should be a tremendous addition in the A-10. Concerns linger with Weaver, Elvis, and the rest of the backcourt, but perhaps Smith can make the impact that fans are hoping to see from him. With the talent up front, that group really only needs to be game managers and knock down a few shots. This should be a better Dayton team than last year, but the Flyers still look to be a hair below the top three in the conference.
5. VCU
Key Returners: Ace Baldwin***, Vince Williams, Hason Ward, Jamir Watkins, KeShawn Curry
Key Losses: Bones Hyland (pro), Levi Stockard, Corey Douglas
Key Newcomers: Marcus Tsohonis (Washington), Jimmy Nichols (Providence), Nick Kern, Jalen Deloach, Jayden Nunn
*** - Baldwin suffered a ruptured Achilles in June will miss a significant portion of the season
Lineup:
Outlook: As the “Indianapolis bubble” NCAA Tournament approached, questions lingered about what would happen if a team in the field got hit with COVID. The hope was that these concerns would remain merely hypothetical, but unfortunately for everyone around the VCU program, the Rams had to face that reality. Multiple positive tests led to a no-contest result, forcing the Rams home without ever getting a chance to play in the event to which they had earned an invite.
It was a crushing blow after such a trying season of relative isolation and extensive testing/distancing protocols, but it should not diminish the impressive accomplishments of a young team incorporating many new pieces into the lineup – one that finished 2nd in the Atlantic 10 after getting picked 9th in the preseason poll.
As if Coach Mike Rhoades did not have enough adversity to overcome with his team as a result of that no-contest, the Rams’ backcourt was gutted this offseason. Star guard Bones Hyland capitalizing on his mega-breakout campaign via a first round selection in the NBA Draft, and rising sophomore Ace Baldwin – who started every game of his freshman campaign and ranked 2nd in the league in steals – suffered a torn Achilles while playing in a pickup game.
The absence of both players creates a massive void in the Rams’ backcourt. Hyland was a fireball offensively, leading the conference in scoring thanks in large part to his lethal pull-up shooting, and he quietly finished top 5 in the A-10 in steals, as well. Baldwin’s perimeter stroke left something to be desired, but he was a pit bull on both ends, embodying the VCU style via his downhill driving and terrifying on-ball defense. He hopes to return by January, but given the nature of the injury, it’s tough to expect him to be his old self right away.
With Baldwin out for a while and possibly limited after that, the addition of Marcus Tsohonis becomes critical. The Washington transfer has played both on and off the ball through his first two college campaigns, and his sky-high usage and spurts of brilliance as a bucket-getter will be crucial in replacing Bones’ prolific production:
He’s nowhere near the defender Baldwin (or even Hyland) was, but he’ll be playing in a more aggressive scheme now, so perhaps he can turn up the intensity on that end. If Tsohonis ends up more “scorer” than “distributor,” then freshman Jayden Nunn will see big minutes immediately. He has the quickness and anticipation needed to slot into VCU’s scheme right away, and Rhoades expects to throw him in the fire given his progress this offseason.
There may not be a “true” point guard on this roster until Baldwin is back, but the cup runneth over with versatile wings and forwards that can enact Rhoades’ aggressive, switching man-to-man defense. Vince Williams and Jamir Watkins got the most run last year, and Williams is another candidate to take on a significantly larger offensive role thanks to his smart ball movement and deadly outside shooting. Watkins oozes potential on the wing after tallying double-digits in four of the Rams’ final seven games, and if his jump shot gains consistency, he’ll be pivotal in replacing Hyland’s scoring.
KeShawn Curry took a step back last year while battling injuries, but he provides veteran depth, and Josh Banks got his feet wet as well. Rhoades also gets Jarren McAllister back after he missed 2020-21 with a torn ACL, and freshman Nick Kern could force his way onto the court as a lanky two-way option. Regardless of who plays, the entire backcourt will look to push in transition and get to the rim in the half court, as is the VCU identity. VCU took 46.4% of its shots at the rim last year, 14th-most in the entire country, an ever-increasing trend under Rhoades:
Considering how little the offense relies on post ups and offensive rebounding, those rim attempts are largely via drives, and that drop in FG% supports that notion. Still – any possession that ends in a 58% chance at two points is hugely successful. The reliance on drives further emphasizes how important it is to find adequate replacements for Baldwin and Hyland.
Up front, Levi Stockard III is back after starting every game last season, but his role could continue to diminish with the addition of Providence transfer Jimmy Nichols and the possible emergences of sophomore Mikeal Brown-Jones and freshman Jalen DeLoach. Nichols needed a change of scenery after a challenging career with the Friars, but his physical tools should make him an ideal fit in VCU’s up-tempo attack.
With so many options up and down the roster, it’s rare to find a player fully locked into big minutes, but Hason Ward is unique in his elite shot-blocking and rebounding abilities. He broke into the starting lineup at the end of January, and his bouncy finishing and rim protection added a useful vertical element. His 11.8% block rate in league play led the entire Atlantic 10, and VCU allowed 0.84 points per possession when he played, compared to 0.92 PPP when he sat (Hoop Lens).
Ward is pivotal in the essential tenet of VCU’s defense: “make ‘em uncomfortable.” (Note – my words, not anyone from VCU’s). The full court pressure takes its toll over the course of a game, helping the Rams to rank 9th in the entire country in turnover rate, and having so much length and athleticism allows Rhoades to keep the press on constantly. Even the disciplined opponents who get past that pressure are met with all kinds of length inside the arc – particularly Ward at the bucket, and his presence also disrupts opponents’ half court actions, as well.
Bottom Line: As he enters his 5th year at VCU, Rhoades has already had to deal with quite a lot: this is the 2nd time his starting point guard has torn an Achilles during the offseason (Marcus Evans partially tore his during the 2018 offseason – hey, he returned and played fairly well that year!), and of course, the COVID withdrawal from the 2021 NCAA Tournament was unprecedented. He’s recruited the same way his teams play, though – relentlessly – and that’s given him a roster capable of maintaining the upper-level A-10 finishes that VCU fans have grown accustomed to with him at the helm. If Baldwin can somehow return close to full strength, that raises VCU’s ceiling in league play and the postseason, but even without him, the deep and athletic Rams will be a pain to play against, and things could get extremely interesting if Tsohonis, Watkins, and Williams all make strides offensively.
Tier 3
6. Davidson
Key Returners: Hyunjung Lee, Luka Brajkovic, Sam Mennenga, Michael Jones
Key Losses: Kellan Grady (grad transfer), Carter Collins (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Foster Loyer (Michigan St.), Styrmir Thrastarson, Chris Ford, Desmond Watson
Lineup:
Outlook: Like too many other teams, last year’s Davidson squad lost nearly a month of the season, playing zero Division I games between January 24th and February 21st. The scheduling gods were none too kind following that break, handing the Wildcats a Sunday/Wednesday home-and-home with conference champion St. Bonaventure, a rude awakening for a team sorely lacking on-court reps. Had the Wildcats scraped out a victory in either game, they may have ended up in the at-large picture thanks to a mega-consistent season (ignore the Charlotte loss…), but instead they landed comfortably into an NIT bid.
Without the dynamic starting backcourt of Kellan Grady and Carter Collins, Bob McKillop may have a hard time recreating last year’s success, but his Wildcats have become such a metronome of consistency over the past decade that it would be downright silly to count them out. McKillop’s precision motion offense mitigates the need for elite creators, and though the guards look shaky at this point, Davidson can rest easy knowing it has two stars through whom it can play.
In an offense heavily based on off-ball screening and cutting, there may be no better player to have than Hyunjung Lee, a deadeye sniper capable of shooting on the move or attacking around a curl. Lee was one of the most efficient players in the entire country as a sophomore, tallying splits of 50.8%/44.2%/90.0% – that’s right, the mythical 50/40/90 season! His size and release point makes it extremely difficult to bother his attempts:
He will see more defensive attention this year without Grady around, but that kind of tough shot-making means he’ll remain a devastating offensive weapon. That is buoyed by his expansion of his off-the-bounce game, and his increasingly clever usage of McKillop’s intricate web of screens makes him even more deadly. Against an elite defensive team, Lee goes back door rather than coming off the stagger screen, the Bonnies are not prepared for it:
By its nature, the motion offense requires some balance to its output, and Lee will need help from veteran Michael Jones and freshmen Des Watson and Styrmir Thrastarson. Jones is a savvy cutter who is a far better perimeter shooter than he showed last season, and his experience in the offense will be vital. The two youngsters have a ton of upside, and McKillop has struck gold with an Icelandic recruit before (Jon Axel Gudmundsson), but they may take time to get comfortable in such a read-and-react-based scheme.
If Lee ends up as the offense’s “Option 1A,” then center Luka Brajkovic will be 1B. The big Austrian has improved every year, and given his combination of deft footwork in the post, physical offensive rebounding, and burgeoning perimeter shooting stroke, he’s in line for a monster senior season. McKillop is smart about the way he sets up Brajkovic’s post touches, using other false motion to keep defenses on their heels, and the result was a dominant 1v1 performer on the block.
Brajkovic will also continue to groom Australian Sam Mennenga, a promising lefty big who struggled to find consistency during his rookie campaign. Still, this is a guy who racked up 17 points against Texas’ gigantic frontcourt in his second college game; the upside is clearly there if he gets more comfortable. Nelson Boachie-Yiadom is the perfect third big man, a defender and finisher who knows his role; David Kristensen should soak up any minutes that those three leave on the table. Froshy Chris Ford was a monster on the block in high school, but he’s undersized, so it’s unclear if he’ll see minutes right away.
That brings us to the point guard spot, where Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer and rising sophomore Grant Huffman will battle for minutes. Loyer was never able to fully settle into a role in the Big Ten, but his shooting and smart ball movement seem like perfect fits for McKillop’s offense. Huffman is a similar player, but Loyer’s wealth of high-level experience probably gives him the edge to start. In an offense more reliant on the point guard to create, this spot might be a weakness, but the motion principles themselves are the ones responsible for generating shots, allowing Loyer and Huffman to be “game manager” types. If McKillop wants a more athletic option, he can go with Emory Lanier, though the sophomore barely saw the court in 2020-21.
For years, the Davidson offense has been the headliner, while the Wildcats’ work on the other end has been, shall we say, less newsworthy. McKillop recruits skill over physical tools, and the lack of athleticism consistently shows up on the defensive end:
Davidson tries to compensate for this dearth of high-level athletes by playing a conservative, packed-in scheme, dominating the glass and forcing foes to miss shots, but it’s little more than a stop-gap against better offensive teams. McKillop has had success in recent years mixing in zone looks; at the very least, it keeps opponents on their toes.
The final question with this year’s Davidson team is one of tempo. For a large portion of his tenure, McKillop played “medium to fast,” sometimes ranking in the top 70-80ish in tempo (and climbing as high as 14th back in 2007). He slammed the breaks over the past four seasons, finishing with tempo rankings of 332, 319, 330, and 353 last year. With Grady gone, he could conceivably speed things up a little more, but considering the half court threats this offense has, expect him to maintain that crawling pace.
Bottom Line: Even without Collins and Grady, this Davidson team looks like more of the same: deadly offense thanks to terrific shooting and dazzling execution, dragged down somewhat by a defense that does not force any turnovers or put much stress on opponents. With Lee and Brajkovic around to lead the way and McKillop roaming the sideline, that’s enough to steal some huge wins, but it will likely prove to be too difficult to elevate all the way into at-large contention.
7. George Mason
Key Returners: Josh Oduro, Xavier Johnson, Jamal Hartwell
Key Losses: Tyler Kolek (transfer), Jordan Miller (transfer), AJ Wilson (transfer), Javon Greene (transfer)
Key Newcomers: D’Shawn Schwartz (Colorado), DeVon Cooper (Morehead St.), Davonte Gaines (Tennessee), Michael Gray, T.J. Gadsden, Blake Jones
Lineup:
Outlook: A heartfelt “au revoir” to Dave Paulsen, who generously took the time to join the Weave on our podcast last offseason. Perhaps expected for many George Mason fans, it was nevertheless bittersweet to see him let go this offseason, though we do understand that he was not quite able to replicate the run of success he had at Bucknell (and yes, injuries contributed to that). That paved the way for a new era in Fairfax, and the administration has handed the reins to Kim English, a Tennessee assistant long touted as the next big thing in the coaching world.
Time will tell if he’s as good as advertised, but to this point, English has certainly said the right things. He repeatedly cites the need for high levels of toughness and hard work, insistent that will be the bedrock of the new George Mason era. Of course, that is far from unique for new coaching hires, but English augmented those claims by adding several talented transfers, bringing in the talent necessary to elevate the program – if they all buy into his principles.
Beyond being highly competitive, it’s tough to get a direct read on the exact style Coach English will play. He has all kinds of stylistic influences in his background: played in one of the best four-out offenses ever at Missouri, a pick-and-roll heavy scheme under Frank Haith at Tulsa, an inside-out attack under Tad Boyle at Colorado, and a high-level motion system under Rick Barnes at Tennessee, pro-style offenses while playing in the NBA.
On the Solving Basketball podcast, English discussed a “hybrid” approach: modern spacing reflective of his Mizzou days, brute force interior play that harkens back to Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield in Knoxville. Considering the wing talent this roster has, along with one true post man, that makes a lot of sense. He also emphasized playing with (intelligent) pace, especially via prudent shot selection. It will be more of a “read and react” system, which can take time for the players to get comfortable, but it’s a style with a high ceiling because it’s harder to prepare for.
The wing is where the strength of these Patriots should lie, as English brought two power conference players with him from previous stops as an assistant: D’Shawn Schwartz from Colorado and Davonte Gaines from Tennessee. Schwartz was a top three player on a KenPom top 10 team, and the big lefty wing will be a nightmare matchup for A-10 opponents. He has mostly excelled as a catch-and-shoot player to this point, but his off-the-bounce game is growing:
With the change in scenery, Schwartz will aim to add more creation to his game this year, both for himself and others. Gaines, meanwhile, was buried on a talented Volunteer squad, but he’s an excellent athlete who should find success as a slasher and shutdown defender for GMU.
English also secured a commitment from DeVon Cooper, a key piece on Morehead State’s NCAA Tournament team last year. Like Schwartz, he has not been a primary option, but he’s a terrific secondary creator and potent shooter. One of the few key returners, Jamal Hartwell, is undersized as an off-ball scorer, but he’s a lethal spot up shooter capable of further spreading the court for the more ball-dominant threats.
Who those threats will be is one of English’s key concerns. The returning point guard duo of Xavier Johnson and Ronald Polite left a lot to be desired from an efficiency standpoint (combined 8-for-50 from 3P range, only a 1.3 assist-to-turnover ratio), so one or both will need to take a sizable step forward as the quarterback of the offense. If not, freshman Mike Gray could be pressed into a meaningful role right away, and while he has the traits English is looking for – toughness, leadership – rookie point guards almost always struggle at this level.
The choices are even more limited in the paint, where veteran Josh Oduro stands as the only proven option. He’s a terrific rebounder, particularly on the offensive end, and he has flashed the ability to be an impact rim protector, as well. He’ll need to avoid foul trouble, as the alternatives are either highly unproven (Stetson transfer Joel Kabimba, sophomore Malik Henry), rail thin (Australian freshman Blake Jones), or not really even bigs (Otis Frazier, TJ Gadsden). It would not be surprising to see this year’s Patriots see similar on/off splits for Oduro:
Without him, GMU will be highly vulnerable on the glass and at the rim, and they’ll struggle mightily to generate easy buckets, even if the guards make incisive drives. Kabimba was a touted recruit at Stetson before having a lost year last season as he eventually opted out due to COVID concerns, so perhaps he can deliver on his potential in a new setting. Henry also showed some potential in (very) limited minutes last year, but Jones is more of a shooting threat/developmental stretch 4 and could get bullied inside.
Frazier and Gadsden likely end up in the wing rotation with Schwartz and Gaines, and their versatility further adds to English’s ability to play four-out alignments around Oduro. Frazier really came on late in the season, especially shining in an OT win at VCU in which he played 30 minutes and racked up 10 points and six rebounds.
Bottom Line: The nature of this entire team is such that a wide range of outcomes are in play. English being a first-year head coach is a huge part of that, as is the unproven nature of many pieces on the roster (Gaines, the point guards, the freshmen, etc.). That makes an accurate GMU prediction hard to nail down, but with Schwartz likely being a star in the A-10 and Oduro around to solidify the paint, middle of the pack feels right. If English is the real deal and the players buy in immediately, there’s certainly upside for more.
8. Duquesne
Key Returners: Tyson Acuff, Toby Okani
Key Losses: Michael Weathers (transfer), Michael Hughes, Tavian Dunn-Martin (transfer), Sincere Carry (transfer), Chad Baker (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Leon Ayers (Mercer), Tre Williams (Indiana St.), Kevin Easley (TCU), Jackie Johnson III, R.J. Gunn (Division II), Amir Spears, Andy Barba
Lineup:
Outlook: It was a three-horse race in the A-10 for “Program Most Thrashed by COVID” in 2020-21, with Duquesne in a battle with UMass and Fordham. I’d likely give the nod to UMass considering it had three separate stoppages and only played 15 games, but Duquesne was not far behind after playing just two games before January 2nd and dealing with another two-week pause in February. The Dukes scrapped to a .500 record, both overall and in conference, but a promising season was largely derailed by the pandemic – and stunning player attrition.
The Dukes were basically down to 1.5 guards at some points during A-10 play, with Sincere Carry and Lamar Norman entering the transfer portal and Maceo Austin stepping away from the team for personal reasons. Carry in particular was a crippling blow as the primary ball-handler and creator, forcing Tavian Dunn-Martin into a point guard role despite being far more comfortable as an off-ball sniper. As a result, Coach Keith Dambrot leaned all the way into an identity of “size and physicality,” rolling out jumbo lineups with two 6’7 wings and playing through the brawling duo of Marcus Weathers and Michael Hughes inside.
While not as extreme, this year’s roster faces similar questions in the backcourt, meaning the paint-centric identity should continue, especially given Dambrot’s stylistic flexibility. Three 6’7 transfers will form the brunt of the attack, with Indiana State import Tre Williams and Division I journeyman Kevin Easley the most proven of the bunch. Williams is a wide-body interior presence who uses his strength carve out space in the lane, and given how Dambrot’s offenses feature post scorers, he will quickly become a focal point for the Dukes. Easley was relegated to a bench role for TCU, but he displayed tantalizing inside-out potential at Chattanooga as a freshman, and he should be an ideal fit for what Dambrot wants to do offensively as something of a “Weathers Lite.” He can go around or bully foes in semi-isolation plays like Weathers does here:
The third part of that group is Division II transfer Rodney Gunn, another well-built forward who played a vastly different role at Lenoir-Rhyne (who rarely used post ups). He is more of a “play in space” big, capable of knocking down jumpers or attacking with his strong left hand. His versatility seems to make him an ideal third big behind Williams and Easley, though the step up in competition is always a complicating factor. Dambrot also has two behemoths in Austin Rotroff and Mounir Hima, but both lack some skill and mobility that could hurt on the defensive end. Hima has plenty of long-term intrigue – athletic African big men with backgrounds playing soccer almost all do – but contributing this year would be a somewhat surprising development.
Sorting out who handles the ball and feeds that frontcourt is the more tenuous proposition. Dunn-Martin is using his extra year to hang on the beaches of Fort Myers at Florida Gulf Coast, leaving Tyson Acuff as the only returner with any extensive point guard experience. He came to Duquesne with some hype, but like many a freshman guard, he struggled in his first year. A full offseason should do him wonders.
Dambrot brought in two freshmen to contend for playing time at that spot, and both Amir “Primo” Sims (Mt. Zion Prep) and Jackie Johnson III (Hargrave Military) come from storied programs, which should hopefully help them acclimate quicker than most rookie lead guards. Johnson was hyper-productive for a 31-1 Hargrave squad last year, and he could end up swiping a starting spot before the year ends, as Dambrot wants to play multiple facilitating guards at the same time. Size is the main thing holding him back, but Dambrot will not have an issue with that – heck, Dunn-Martin was listed at 5’8.
As part of that “multiple creators” initiative, Dambrot will likely rely on Leon Ayers to get some ball-handling reps, and the Mercer transfer flashed intriguing potential in that regard in his first year out of junior college, despite some turnover concerns. He was streaky as a scorer, but he can get boiling lava hot from deep, and playing him alongside Toby Okani would give Dambrot a giant pair of wings. Okani was another youngster thrown into the fire last year (and it showed on offense), but his considerable length makes him a disruptive defender. Mike Bejelka and Andy Barba will battle for any leftover minutes, and Barba fits the Dambrot mold of “big wing that can shoot.”
Outside of Johnson, this roster has a bevy of interchangeable size, and Dambrot’s keen defensive mind should find a way to weaponize that. Having so many switchable options should allow Duquesne to continue being a stifling pick-and-roll defense: per Synergy, the Dukes were 8th nationally in defensive points per possession (PPP) when the opposition ran a pick-and-roll, up among such defensive luminaries as Memphis, Houston, and Alabama.
Of course, last year’s Dukes definitely benefited from cold opponent shooting (4th-lowest defensive 3P% in the country). While the length is a factor there, the regression monster still looms for Duquesne’s defense, and Williams is not quite the rim protector that Hughes was (though he is solid).
Bottom Line: The combination of COVID issues and a harrowingly thin backcourt depth chart made last season a test of wills for Duquesne. On the bright side, the Dukes finally got to play two true home games at the end of the year after spending most of the last two seasons at either PPG Paints Arena (home of the NHL Penguins) or at the campus arena of Division II LaRoche University. The Dukes should once again be painfully physical in the paint, and if the young backcourt can fill in the voids around that via ball control and shot-making, Duquesne will be an extremely tough out now that home games are back on campus. Although this team has to incorporate quite a few newcomers, Dambrot is one of the best coaches in the league, and he’s fully capable of constructing a feisty contender in Pittsburgh.
9. UMass
Key Returners: Noah Fernandes, Javohn Garcia, TJ Weeks, Cairo McCrory, Preston Santos (DNP in 20-21)
Key Losses: Tre Mitchell (transfer), Ronnie DeGray (transfer), Carl Pierre (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Rich Kelly (Boston College), Michael Steadman (Montana), CJ Kelly (Albany), Trent Buttrick (Penn St.), Greg Jones (D-II)
Lineup:
Outlook: I apologize in advance to UMass fans – I’m guessing that hearing any sort of recap of last season’s COVID debacle is triggering. Feel free to skip a paragraph if you are solely focused on turning the page to 2021-22.
Last year’s Minutemen entered the year with as much optimism as any in the past 7-8 years, buoyed by dark horse All-American candidate Tre Mitchell and a tantalizing young group of guards. Instead, COVID razed the program to the ground, forcing three separate stoppages throughout the year and limiting UMass to just 13 regular season games. The young, Woodstock Academy-heavy core barely had a chance to mesh on the court, and any conclusion – good or bad – on last year’s Minutemen is likely flawed via a lack of evidence.
As a new season approaches, the UMass outlook is more muddied. Mitchell transferred to Texas, leaving Matt McCall’s fifth team in Amherst heavily skewed towards the backcourt. Again, limited sample last year, but it’s nearly impossible to overstate Mitchell’s importance to any success the Minutemen had. He was the lone interior scorer on the roster, and his perimeter game evolved to the point of making him borderline impossible to guard. The on/off numbers paint a grotesque picture of collapse when he left the court:
Without Mitchell on the floor, the young guards buckled under the creation burden, turning the ball over at a “panic button” frequency. Hoop-Explorer.com shows the impact specific players had on others while on or off the floor, and Noah Fernandes and Javohn Garcia in particular will need to clean it up if UMass has any hope of scoring efficiently without Mitchell as a fulcrum:
Fortunately for McCall, both are a year older and now have a full offseason to learn his system, and old hand Rich Kelly has arrived from Boston College as further reinforcements. That trio forms an impressive ball-handling group flush with shooting, slashing, and distributing abilities, giving McCall a ton of freedom in how he deploys his lineups.
Fernandes is probably the best passer of the bunch, though he’ll miss the outstanding chemistry he had developed with Mitchell in the pick-and-roll. Kelly’s role at BC was mostly that of a shooter, but he was a full-time starter at point guard at Quinnipiac for three seasons, so he’s plenty capable of being “the man” for stretches.
The true upside, though, lies with Garcia, a dynamic athlete and driver who flashed a ton of potential in an up-and-down rookie season. He showed impressive patience as a PnR operator, waiting for creases to open as defenses scrambled to cover Mitchell, and he was an effective finisher at the rim when he got there:
He still needs to get his perimeter jumper sorted out and sharpen his decision-making, but he gave UMass fans enough to be salivating for his sophomore campaign. Like the rest of the roster, he’ll have to figure out how to evolve without Mitchell, though.
All three guards will contribute to a three-point happy offense, and wing gunner TJ Weeks fits that style to a T as well. The smooth lefty slumped from beyond the arc as a sophomore, but the form is too pretty for him to continue as a 30% 3P shooter, especially if the team’s point guard trio can get him open shots. Beyond Weeks, McCall has plenty of other lineup optionality with Albany transfer CJ Kelly, sophomores Dyondre Dominguez and Cairo McCrory (see his name in the graphic above), and senior Dibaji Walker, though it’s likely not all of them see heavy minutes.
That’s especially true with Preston Santos expected back from a year-long leave of absence. Santos was a quintessential 3-and-D wing as a freshman, excelling in both areas as a low-usage complement to the Minutemen’s more ball-dominant stars, and his return could be huge in making the puzzle pieces fit together snugly.
The problems with this roster lie in the paint, where UMass is likely going to struggle on both ends. Gone are the days of telling Mitchell to “go get us a bucket,” and his impact defensively should not go unnoticed, either. McCall loves to extend full court on that end, and with such a deep stable of guards and wings at his disposal, that’s a logical move (Garcia and Santos should blossom this year). Unfortunately, that style concedes a ton of easy drives to the rim when the pressure breaks down, and UMass does not have anyone capable of being an intimidating back stop. Mitchell did a solid job of challenging shots as the UMass defense devolved into a layup line, but the likely center rotation – Montana transfer Michael Steadman, Penn St. transfer Trent Buttrick, and D-II transfer Greg Jones – will not strike fear into opponents’ hearts.
It was not just a transition issue, though, as McCall’s emphasis on running foes off the 3P line led to a massive share of shots surrendered at the rim. Per Hoop-Math, opponents took 47.0% of their shots at the rim, ranking UMass 345th nationally at preventing such attempts. Without a rim protector, that could be disastrous.
Bottom Line: With last year mostly being a lost season in Amherst, 2021-22 serves as something of a restart for the Matt McCall era. Conducting such a restart without Tre Mitchell around makes it incredibly challenging, but the Minutemen have a deep and talented backcourt capable of generating points for themselves and others, and the rest of the roster looks well-suited to play McCall’s frenetic style. The issues in the paint loom large, though, despite McCall’s attempts to patch over that problem in the transfer portal, and UMass’ ultimate fate will be decided by how much it can compensate for those limitations inside.
I will say this, UMass fans – at the very least, you should be able to play a full dang schedule. *knocks furiously on wood*
10. Rhode Island
Key Returners: Jeremy Sheppard, Antwan Walker, Makhel Mitchell, Ishmael Leggett, Malik Martin, Makhi Mitchell (injury), Jalen Carey
Key Losses: Fatts Russell (transfer), Jermaine Harris (transfer), DJ Johnson (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Ishmael El-Amin (Ball St.), Abdou Samb
Lineup:
*** - Betrand will likely miss the season with a knee injury.
Outlook: Ladies and gentlemen, let me present to you: an Atlantic 10 team that did not have a COVID pause last year! It feels crazy to say that, and I think only La Salle can echo that sentiment in this league. The Rams did miss some games due to opponents’ COVID issues, but considering they never had to pause themselves, that still feels like a resounding success.
The on-court product was less of a triumph, though, as the Rams stumbled to their worst record since 2013. The offense deserves most of the blame after ranking 11th in the A-10 during league play, with turnovers and frigid shooting undermining a promising downhill mindset. Coach David Cox assembled a roster full of intriguing athletes, but the pendulum swung too far in that direction – the Rams were clearly starved for more skill.
Teams often take on the identity of their stars, and Fatts Russell was the embodiment of Rhode Island’s shaky offensive identity. His perimeter jump shot cratered to 23.5%, and he shot an abysmal 33.7% from the field overall. Fatts’ bricky jumper underscores a years-long problem for the Rams, as Cox (and Danny Hurley before him) either refuses to recruit quality shooters or fails to imbue the confidence they need to make shots:
To further emphasize this point, Rhode Island scored 0.793 points per possession on “spot up” opportunities, which ranked in the 6th percentile nationally, per Synergy. That’s gross! The inability to hit shots (and aversion to shooting them altogether) has made the penetration-based URI attack somewhat predictable.
However, Fatts’ quickness and competitive edge helped him get to the free throw line a whopping seven times per game, and his 80% success rate their buoyed his efficiency to a (barely) acceptable level. With the help of the Mitchell twins, Makhel Mitchell and Makhi Mitchell (who got hurt early in the season), and intriguing sophomore Ishmael Leggett, Fatts and the Rams ranked 20th in the country in free throw rate. But losing Fatts is not the crippling blow it may seem – without him on the court last year, Rhode Island did not see a huge drop-off:
The Rams nearly beat VCU without him, and that performance is the first place to start when digging for optimism for this year’s squad. Jeremy Sheppard ably stepped into the point guard role, racking up six assists to just one turnover against one of the best pressure defenses in the country, and his return allows for a smooth transition of the offense sans Fatts. In fact, the on-off numbers paint a much starker picture about his importance, perhaps because he was the only competent volume perimeter shooter on the team:
For his part, Leggett shot 42.1% from deep, though it was on a low volume. He could take a huge leap this season, as his combination of smooth shooting and physical driving should give opposing guards nightmares. Cox was also be hoping for a boost from Allen Betrand, the Towson transfer who did not look comfortable after gaining eligibility in mid-December, but he will miss the season after tearing ligaments in his knee.
Fortunately, the Rams picked up a boost from Ball State transfer Ishmael El-Amin, giving their backcourt the most Ishmaels per capita in the country and adding another capable ball-handler and shooter to the mix. El-Amin’s production and efficiency surged once Ball State’s point guard, Jarron Coleman, returned from injury, and he should thrive playing a complementary role around Sheppard and Leggett. It’s probably time to give up on the Jalen Carey experience, but I guess the former top 100 recruit at Syracuse does have pedigree? Getting anything from him would be a bonus.
The offense was also reliant on offensive rebounding to score, and the tag team of Makhel Mitchell and Antwan Walker was extremely active on the glass. Walker is a bouncy athlete, and he was dominant on the offensive glass and in transition. The Rams rarely played through the roll man on offense out of pick-and-rolls, but Walker was devastating in such settings, racking up 1.4 PPP (93rd percentile nationally).
Walker is also a stout defender, and coupled with the Mitchells, he gives Cox an interior foundation around which he can build the Rams’ defense. Malik Martin is quiet on the offensive end, but he’s an outstanding individual defender, and if Cox rolls out lineups with a Martin-Walker-Mitchell (either one) frontcourt, scoring against this team will be a chore. That does sacrifice offense, though, and Cox has seemingly preferred three-guard lineups in the past, so we may not see that trio together frequently.
The surprising part of last year’s defense was its inability to force turnovers outside of Fatts steals (URI ranked 255th in defensive turnover rate). Considering the length and quickness on the roster, seeing such a drop-off from 2019 (73rd) and 2020 (58th) was a troubling backslide for something that had been a strength in the past. If the Rams can rediscover their disruptive ways, that would add to their potency on D, although doing so without pesky Fatts harassing ball-handlers and jumping passing lanes will be a major challenge.
Bottom Line: This is mostly a “run it back” kind of season for Rhode Island, and we’ll see if the Fatts-for-El-Amin trade is addition by subtraction or an alarming drop-off. Cox has plenty of athletes to work with, and having Makhi Mitchell healthy all season would be a significant boost to the already strong interior defense, but the lack of outside shooting (and the spacing that results) could once again be the Achilles heel for a rim-centric system. A middle of the pack A-10 finish feels most likely.
Tier 4
11. George Washington
Key Returners: James Bishop, Ricky Lindo, Amir Harris (DNP in 20-21)
Key Losses: Matthew Moyer, Jamison Battle (transfer), Chase Paar (transfer), Jameer Nelson (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Brendan Adams (UConn), Joe Bamisile (Virginia Tech), Brayon Freeman, Daniel Nixon, Qwanzi Samuels (FGCU), Ira Lee (Arizona)***
*** - Thanks to Kevin Sweeney, who pointed out that Ira Lee suffered a ruptured patella tendon and will amost certainly miss the entire season. That could be enough to knock GW down to 13th.
Lineup:
Outlook: Very few teams caused the Weave more consternation early in 2020-21 than George Washington (looking at you, Oakland). We watched helplessly as Jamion Christian rolled out one of the worst zone defenses the sport of basketball has ever seen for the first four games of the year, culminating in an appalling performance at UMBC in which the Colonials surrendered 1.23 PPP to the host Retrievers despite forcing 20 turnovers. The nonexistent defense (and some late game foibles – more on that later) quickly undid a promising roster, and we were quickly forced to re-evaluate our relatively rosy outlook on the GW season.
Of course, a month-long COVID pause and injuries to key players like Matthew Moyer and Jamison Battle did the Colonials no favors, either. Rotations were all over the place, and with GW only playing five games total after January 17th (plus limited practice time due to COVID), the Colonials basically had no chance to improve as the season went into the stretch run. That was particularly harmful to a young team incorporating several new pieces into the primary rotation.
COVID aside, Christian smartly abandoned the aforementioned zone, going almost exclusively man-to-man for the rest of the year after the UMBC debacle. Unfortunately, it did not matter much, as the Colonials still finished dead last in the A-10 in AdjDE (12th in conference play) thanks to a lack of athleticism and quality depth beyond a decent starting group. Christian has tried everything on the defensive end over the last five years, from “Mount Mayhem” pressure to primarily half court man-to-man and everything in between:
There’s something to be said for being flexible and tweaking your strategy to match your team’s strengths, but look at that far right column of AdjDE rankings – defense has not been a strength for Christian’s teams in years.
Last year was no different, with opponents constantly feasting at the rim, taking nearly half of their shots there (45.3% to be exact, according to Hoop-Math – 343rd nationally), as slow-footed perimeter players like Sloan Seymour were repeatedly char-broiled by anyone and everyone via straight line drives. And there’s nowhere near enough shot-blocking on this squad to make all of those rim attempts difficult.
At the very least, the Colonials should improve on the defensive glass, where a frontcourt combination of Ricky Lindo and Ira Lee should gobble up boards like Hungry, Hungry Hippos. Both are stoutly built forwards with a nose for the ball, and while Lee’s presence may prevent Lindo from averaging a double-double again, those two combining for 17-18 rebounds per game would not be a shocker. Depth is more of a question mark, with Hunter Dean and Noel Brown battling for center minutes – Dean is rangier, while Brown has more long-term upside.
Note: Lee is likely out for the season. Christan may have to go small as a result, because the Colonials really lack options alongside Lindo.
Speaking of rangy, this year’s Colonials gets an infusion of wing talent capable of impacting the game on both ends. Christian was active in the transfer portal, nabbing two power conference transfers in Brendan Adams and former top 100 recruit Joe Bamisile. Both got buried behind veteran rotations – Bamisile was in an especially tough spot learning an intricate offensive system at Virginia Tech without much of an offseason – but both should be key contributors in Washington, D.C. GW also gets Amir Harris back after he sat out all of last season, and the versatile former Nebraska transfer can be a devastating defender if he is actually able to stay on the court – far from a certainty to this point in his career.
The Colonials’ offensive attack was led by James Bishop, who had one of the largest burdens in the country in Christian’s pick-and-roll offense. The electric lefty can take over games at times with his driving and passing, though smart opponents turned him into one or the other. His shot selection and decision-making can be erratic at times, but with more (healthy) offensive weaponry around him, perhaps he can clean that up.
Bishop should also benefit from the arrival of highly touted recruit Brayon Freeman, who some want to see take over the offense immediately and move Bishop off the ball. That seems like too seismic a shift from last year’s approach, but if Freeman can give Christian a viable secondary creator who can occasionally allow Bishop to be an off-ball scorer, that would alleviate some of the stark concerns from last season.
Lee and Lindo should prove to be capable PnR partners: both can finish around the rim, though adapting to doing so after catching on the move may take Lee some time. Spacing around that action will be a concern, as neither big offers stretch capabilities, and Adams/Bamisile/Harris range from “unproven” to “outright bad” from beyond the arc. Cornell transfer and sniper Bryan Knapp will help in whatever minutes he earns.
Also worth noting: GW had major issues with late game execution, famously putting up these two final possessions in back-to-back games while trailing by a point:
Added maturity and more options on offense can help solve those issues, with Bishop’s derailing of the play in the first instance particularly stark – but also fixable.
Bottom Line: This roster clearly has talent, as it could have a top six of all power conference transfers (plus a dynamic freshman guard). Winning the offseason talent acquisition battle and winning games are two different conversations entirely, though, and GW struggled mightily with decently impressive pedigree last year, too. Christian needs to find a way to plug some of the holes in the leaky defense while also empowering the incoming transfers to play with confidence on the offensive end in a more balanced attack. Much like Duquesne, UMass, and La Salle, there’s intrigue here, but what that ultimately amounts to remains a mystery.
12. La Salle
Key Returners: Jhamir Brickus, Jack Clark, Sherif Kenney, Christian Ray, Clifton Moore, Anwar Gill
Key Losses: David Beatty (transfer), Jared Kimbrough (transfer), Scott Spencer (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Josh Nickelberry (Louisville), Mamadou Doucoure (Rutgers), Andres Marrero, Daeshon Shepherd
Lineup:
Outlook: If you have any way of figuring out which version of La Salle is going to show up on a given night, you 1) are likely already a millionaire and 2) have a call from Ashley Howard on line one. His Explorers were all over the place last year, posting some mega-impressive wins (at Dayton, at Richmond, Saint Louis) while also registering a few baffling losses (at Fordham, at Saint Joe’s, Saint Peter’s). That massive range of outcomes made La Salle one of the most head-scratching teams in the country, ranking 323rd in Haslametrics’ consistency rankings, and with many key faces back from that squad, that up-and-down nature may continue.
To be fair to Howard & Co., playing a freshman point guard often leads to erratic performances. Jhamir Brickus was excellent at times as a two-way floor general as an A-10 rookie, but he’ll need to develop more consistency as he enters his sophomore campaign. He lives up to his last name – he’s built like a brick house – and that strength makes him a dynamite driver and on-ball defender. His hometown (Coatesville) is home to the National Iron & Steel Heritage Museum, and Brickus embodies that toughness, always playing with a hard edge.
Brickus could only do so much to help out an abysmal defense, though, with La Salle finishing dead last in defensive efficiency in A-10 play. Opponents absolutely destroyed the Explorers at the rim in every way imaginable, especially via drives right by perimeter players and on post ups. Per Synergy, no team in the country surrendered more efficient post possessions, with foes racking up an unconscionable 1.192 PPP on such plays, as La Salle simply lacked the size to consistently defend inside. The Explorers also struggle mightily in rotation, consistently failing to make the effort necessary to recover once a breakdown occurs.
One way the defense could improve is via more minutes for Clifton Moore, the mammoth Indiana transfer who actually provided some shot-blocking and defensive rebounding when on the floor. He was basically in a platoon with Jared Kimbrough due to both players’ propensity to foul, but there’s no question about who gave La Salle a better chance to win:
Kimbrough transferred to Hartford during the offseason, opening up more minutes for Moore – provided he can stay on the floor. Rutgers transfer Mamadou Doucoure adds more Big Ten bulk to the center rotation, and Tegra Izay saw limited minutes in his debut season, but Howard will mostly be counting on Moore to take a major step this year in a larger role.
Kimbough was not the only outgoing transfer this offseason, though, as shooter Scott Spencer and scoring guard David Beatty both hit the exits as well, creating another offensive conundrum. Those two were (by far) the team’s best shooters last year, with Brickus, Sherif Kenney, Christian Ray, and Jack Clark not quite earning the respect of defenses. That’s a problem considering the style Howard wants to play: a Jay Wright disciple, Howard craves the kind of spacing that Villanova has so thoroughly weaponized in recent years.
Collective improvement from the veterans is the most important ingredient to achieving that goal, but Howard also hopes he uncovered a gem in Josh Nickelberry. The Louisville transfer never established a role with the Cardinals in large part due to injuries, but he has a ton of talent and could be an answer on the perimeter if he gets his body right. He is not gun-shy – he took 32 triples to four twos while shooting just 21.9% last year – but that kind of confidence can be a deadly asset if the shots start falling in a new environment.
Kenney and Ray are better suited to be slashers, while Clark’s production and efficiency has fallen short of his physical gifts to this point in his career. Anwar Gill exhibited Nickelberry’s shameless swagger last year, but the results were borderline disastrous: 38.6% from the field, more turnovers than assists. Yet another stoutly-built guard, he can use his frame to get to the rim, but his finishing once there left a lot to be desired.
Freshman wings Andres Marrero and Daeshon Shepherd add to the impressive perimeter depth (Marrero can make shots!), and that roster makeup sets up well for Howard to continue pressing on defense. He likes to mix in some run-and-jump looks, putting pressure on opposing guards to make the right read or risk derailing the offense early in the shot clock (this is perfect execution by George Mason):
Forcing turnovers was often La Salle’s best option for getting stops, and having Brickus (38th nationally in steal rate) hawking opposing ball-handlers all over the court is a perfect tone-setter for that strategy.
Bottom Line: The offense last year took an extremely democratic approach, with no one averaging double figures for the season. Brickus should hit that mark this year, and if Clark can knock down more shots, the versatile forward might do it as well. Balance and depth will continue to be the name of the game, though, and if La Salle can build on the “better when Moore plays” tendency from last season, a small climb up the standings is well within reach. The defense needs serious work, though, and it will likely be the Explorers’ undoing once again.
13. Saint Joseph’s
Key Returners: Jordan Hall, Taylor Funk, Dahmir Bishop, Cameron Brown, Jack Forrest, Jadrian Tracey
Key Losses: Ryan Daly
Key Newcomers: Ejike Obinna (Vanderbilt), Charles Coleman (East Carolina), Erik Reynolds, Kacper Klaczek
Lineup:
Outlook: Coaching changes are often necessary and even advantageous for both parties involved. The coach needs a change of scenery, the school needs to go in a different direction, everyone wins in the long run. But sometimes, a new coach is prime “be careful what you wish for” territory, and for St. Joe’s and Billy Lange – who is now 2-for-2 in having worse seasons than Phil Martelli’s worst years – that appears to be the case.
Granted, injuries, youth, and a 2021 COVID pause have worked against Lange, but the Hawks have now looked utterly lost for two straight years. Of course, Martelli’s final two squads were also derailed by injuries, but the administration seemed uninterested in such excuses then, so it’s hard to hand Lange and his 11-41 (5-25) record the benefit of the doubt. It’s now a crucial year three where his young team is not quite as young anymore, and Lange needs to show tangible signs of progress to avoid sitting on a scalding chair come March 2022.
If you’re hunting for seeds of optimism, then the return of Jordan Hall after he tested the NBA Draft waters and committed to Texas A&M as a transfer has to be the first place you start. Hall was immediately one of the best passers in the country, eventually taking over the alpha ball-handling role by the time the calendar flipped to 2021. He ranked 24th nationally in assist rate (led the A-10), and he was one of only four players standing 6’7 or taller in KenPom’s top 50 (along with Winthrop’s Chandler Vaudrin, Lafayette’s Neal Quinn, Florida State’s Scottie Barnes). Plays like this exemplify why the NBA has interest in such a skilled playmaker at his size:
Unsurprisingly, Hall had turnover issues at times and has to add more intermediate scoring to his game, but he should be better in year two.
Hall also had the issue of playing in an offense based entirely around shooting/spacing that could not actually make shots. In our preview of St. Joe’s a year ago, Matthew Cox invented a “long ball letdown” (LBL) stat that simply looked at teams that took a ton of threes but made an awful percentage. It’s not a list you want to be on in consecutive seasons (hi, Coppin State):
2019-20:
2020-21:
Lange’s offense generates quality shots – the Hawks took almost nothing in the mid-range – but their shooters have not been good enough to take advantage. Taylor Funk is the one exception, a 6’8 floor spacer that commands respect from defenses, but guys like Jack Forrest, Cameron Brown, Dahmir Bishop, and Rahmir Moore need to expand their games to prevent the Hawks from appearing on a third straight LBL leaderboard.
Having a secondary playmaker to take the pressure of Hall would also be huge; the Hawks were far more formidable when Ryan Daly was on the floor last season as a scorer and creator. Moore was probably the closest thing to that, but a leap from Jadrian Tracey or quick contributions from freshman Eric Reynolds would be a major boost. Tracey flashed enough potential to be intriguing, though he was essentially buried once Daly returned (and he is not much of a passer). Forrest had several big games before going down with a concussion in late January, too, so his progression is worth monitoring.
The larger issue for Lange’s SJU teams has been the defense, particularly in the paint. Playing Funk at center has its advantages on the offensive end, but that leaves the Hawks incredibly exposed at the rim, so it’s no wonder that they finished 341st in block rate and 307th in 2P% defense last year. Lange picked up a couple of discount Band-aids in an attempt to patch over that problem, but Ejike Obinna and Charles Coleman did not see the floor at their previous stops for a reason. Obinna is an especially baffling player, a 6’10 big man who did not block a single shot in 152 minutes last season and only accumulated nine over 952 career minutes at Vanderbilt. That’s a staggering number, like fishing with dynamite for a week and only reeling in a couple minnows.
Those two also will not help the Hawks’ nonexistent transition defense, an area that likely directly results from missing so many threes (and thus creating a million long rebounds). Per Hoop-Math, 28.1% of all of opponents’ shot attempts came in transition, the 10th-highest percentage in the country; considering how high-value those possessions are compared to the half court, that already makes it difficult to build a competent defense, before even getting to the Hawks’ athletic limitations.
Once in the half court, SJU struggled mightily against pick-and-rolls, often forcing Lange to switch over to zone (which, in theory, also keeps opponents away from the rim). Foes took advantage on the offensive glass and patiently worked for quality shots, tallying 1.00 PPP when SJU played zone, and with so many similar pieces back from last year, Lange has an incredibly challenging task ahead to enact real improvement.
Bottom Line: A healthier season up and down the roster would be a welcome development on Hawk Hill, as multiple seasons in a row have been gutted by the injury bug. Bringing back Hall after he seemed all the way out the door is a coup, and St. Joe’s optimists can certainly envision a five-out offense that thrives via Hall’s creation and exceptional vision. Picturing a competent defense is significantly more difficult, even with the added size in the paint, and that will ultimately be what drags the Hawks down towards the bottom of a talented Atlantic 10.
Tier 4
14. Fordham
Key Returners: Josh Navarro (extra year), Chuba Ohams, Kyle Rose, Jalen Cobb**
Key Losses: Joel Soriano (transfer), Chris Austin (transfer), Ty Perry (transfer), Onyi Eyisi (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Darius Quisenberry (Youngstown St.), Antonio Daye (FIU), Kam’Ron Cunningha (Mississippi Valley St.), Abdou Tsimbila (Penn St.), Patrick Kelly (Penn St.), DJ Gordon (Penn St.), Antrell Charlton (JUCO), Rostyslav Novitskyi (JUCO), Ahmad Harrison, Nate Tshimanga, Zach Riley***
** - Jalen Cobb will miss the season with a knee injury, per Blue Ribbon.
*** - Zach Riley will join the team from New Zealand mid-season.
Lineup:
Outlook: It’s a new era in New York City! The Fordham faithful (or what still exists of them) are hopeful for an improvement on the Jeff Neubauer regime…and the Tom Pecora regime…and the Jared Grasso interim regime…and the Dereck Whittenburg regime…and the Bob Hill regime…etc. You get it! Time and history insist that winning at Fordham with even a remote hint of consistency is an impossibility, but don’t tell that to Kyle Neptune, who upon being hired had all of the optimism of someone who has yet to coach at Fordham:
“We want to play fast and exciting style, but also we want to be tough,” Neptune said. “We want to be a team that teams come in here and do not want to play against.”
Under Neubauer, Fordham was neither fast, nor exciting, nor scary to play against, though you could make a fair argument that the Rams were at least tough. The defense was stout, the pace was slow, the offense was petrifyingly bad, and Fordham was an under machine as a result:
Watching Fordham was torture akin to paint drying, but we will miss auto-betting unders on Neubauer’s boys.
Neptune’s initial indications are that he will make a reasonable attempt to imitate Villanova basketball, making him the third former Jay Wright assistant to recently enter the A-10 with such a goal (Billy Lange at St. Joe’s, Ashley Howard at La Salle). The problem with trying to overwhelm opponents with skill and spacing is that it requires an abundance of skilled players, something that has been in short supply at the Rose Hill Gym for decades.
Four rotation pieces return from last season’s debacle, and the three perimeter starters – Josh Navarro, Jalen Cobb, and Kyle Rose – sported offensive ratings so low that even Chicago State is a little disgusted. A system change should be a welcome shot in the arm, as Neubauer’s crawling tempo left a team with zero half court creation stuck playing only half court possessions. It cannot possibly be any worse than these numbers:
It’s a group that does not make any shots and never gets to the free throw line, and the mildly effective passing from Navarro and Cobb was simply not enough to offset the other foibles. Cobb will miss the season with a knee injury, and the other two may find themselves on the bench thanks to Neptune’s active offseason work.
The new coach was decisive in his efforts to add more guard talent, fully aware that his Rams needed a jolt. Darius Quisenberry is the best of the newcomer bunch, a Horizon Player of the Year-caliber lead guard when healthy who is capable of both scoring and setting up his teammates. He struggled with injuries all of last season, but he should be a difference-maker given the way he draws contact and gets buckets in multiple ways. Antonio Daye will join him as another primary creator; the FIU transfer has efficiency issues of his own, but he’s a confident dude who should welcome the spread principles Neptune will bring. Freshman Ahmad Harrison will have every opportunity to play right away, with Neptune hoping his first guard recruit can be a building block for his tenure, and JUCO stat sheet stuffer Antrell Charlton adds even more competition for the incumbents to battle against.
On the wing, Penn State transfers DJ Gordon and Patrick Kelly could start immediately despite being merely passive participants in State College, with Gordon’s size and athleticism making him particularly intriguing as a long-term project. Mississippi Valley State import Kam’Ron Cunningham grabbed the eyes of the nation (ok, just me) when he poured in 34 points in the Delta Devils’ first win of the season on February 8th, but it’s nearly impossible to envision him as an A-10 difference-maker, even when squinting really, really hard. New Zealand native Zach Riley should provide a mid-December boost when he joins the roster; he’s a lethal perimeter shooter with burgeoning off-the-bounce game that captured the NBL’s Young Player of the Year award in 2020-21.
That makes up the “four out” portion of Neptune’s offense, with veteran Chuba Ohams slotting in as the “one in” in the paint. His offensive game is not going to make him a magnet for defensive attention, and he has struggled with injuries, but he has proven to be a monster two-way rebounder when on the court. JUCO transfer Rostyslav Novitskyi and a third Penn State import, Abdou Tsimbila, add depth, and Tsimbila’s pedigree at least offers some intrigue.
Defensively, the pieces are here for a competent unit – last year’s team actually finished 119th in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive efficiency, and the 2020 squad ranked 64th – but those teams had the benefit of playing at a snail’s pace and rarely had to defend in transition. At SJU and La Salle, respectively, Lange and Howard have both struggled to build competent A-10 defenses, and even with sound man-to-man principles and an infusion of athletes, Fordham likely lags behind its conference cohorts in the same way.
One area of note: Quisenberry and Daye can both get after the ball, both while hawking ball-handlers and lurking in passing lanes, so playing those two together could at least make opposing guards uncomfortable. Racking up steals and providing the offense with some easy scoring opportunities certainly would not hurt, either.
Bottom Line: Out with (most of) the old, in with the new! Whether that’s an improvement remains to seen, but at least there’s potentially some life in this group offensively. Quisenberry and Daye will be given massive offensive burdens, but with few complementary pieces and little value in the experienced returners, the upside on that end of the court is likely capped. It’s certainly possible for Neptune to succeed where his fellow former Nova assistants have failed, but it does not seem likely right away, and the three of them could wind up in a tussle at the bottom of the league standings (slight apologies to La Salle for including them there).