- Ky McKeon
EDITOR’S NOTE: One day after this preview released it was announced Eastern Washington’s Kim Aiken would be transferring to Arizona. Aiken had previously committed to the Wildcats before opting to switch his commitment to Washington State. Unfortunately for Aiken and the Cougars, Wazzu did not allow Aiken into the graduate program he applied for (despite a 3.48 GPA). Aiken’s presence bolsters Arizona’s depth in a big way. He won the Big Sky’s DPOY award last year, can play multiple positions, and can score on the offensive end.
Key Returners: Azuolas Tubelis, Bennedict Mathurin, Dalen Terry, Christian Koloko, Kerr Kriisa
Key Losses: James Akinjo, Terrell Brown, Jordan Brown, Jemarl Baker, Ira Lee
Key Newcomers: Oumar Ballo (Gonzaga), Justin Kier (Georgia), Pelle Larsson (Utah), Shane Nowell, Adama Bal
Lineup:
Outlook: The shadow of the FBI investigations into Sean Miller and the Arizona basketball program finally grew to be too dark for the powers that be in Tucson. Miller was shown the door following a recent postseason ban, 12 seasons at the helm of the program and seven NCAA Tourney appearances. Most of Miller’s success came in the mid-2010s, and since then Zona basketball has felt hollow. With COVID canceling the 2020 NCAA Tournament, the Cats haven’t sniffed a Field of 68 since 2018. For a storied program, a change was clearly needed.
In steps Tommy Lloyd, a first-time head coach who has spent the past 20(!) years alongside Mark Few at Gonzaga. There’s very few (ha) coaches in the country better to learn from than Few, who has created a national juggernaut up in Spokane. Lloyd comes in with a sterling reputation as a recruiter and player developer. His specialty at Gonzaga was roping in international recruits, bringing the likes of Ronny Turiaf, JP Batista, Robert Sacre, Kelly Olynyk, Kevin Pangos, Przemek Karnowski, Domantas Sabonis, Rui Hachimura, Killian Tillie, Filip Petrusev, and Joel Ayayi to eastern Washington (yes that is a ridiculous list of talent). Arizona’s roster this season includes eight international players; only three scholarship players hail from the US.
With a new coach comes a new style, and while we’re not positive what we’ll see from Lloyd, yet, it seems likely he’ll bring with him a style heavily influenced by Mark Few. This means we should expect Arizona to be an uptempo squad, more so than in the past under Miller. The Cats will likely take advantage of their superior length and athleticism and emphasize getting out in transition. Zona will also feature one of the better frontcourts in the country next season, meaning post play will be at the forefront of every game plan. The biggest question mark will be at the point guard position, and Lloyd will need to figure out how to replace James Akinjo, a dynamic scorer and creator that the 2021-22 roster doesn’t possess.
Offensive efficiency could very well fall off from the Cats’ 15th-ranked mark last season, but the defense promises to fare much better. Lloyd’s Gonzaga squads always forced opponents to beat them off the bounce and forced shooters off the 3-point line. Zona has length for days on the perimeter to do just that, and the size in the frontcourt will take care of ball penetration; it will be incredibly difficult finding room to breathe in the halfcourt.
What makes this Arizona team so intriguing next season is its young talent. The sophomore class is chock full of breakout candidates capable of lifting the Cats to the top of the Pac 12 in 2021-22. In the frontcourt, Azuolas Tubelis returns off a season in which he was named to the Pac 12 All-Freshman and Honorable Mention All-Conference squads. Tubelis is a high-usage player who the Cats can run offense through next year. Primarily a stretch-4, Tubelis does most of his damage off pick-n-pops and cuts through the middle of the arc. He moves well for a 6’11” guy and makes up for his credit card vertical and lack of strength with good positioning and length.
Joining Tubelis to form one of the most intimidating front lines in the country is 7-foot junior Christian Koloko and 7-foot Gonzaga transfer Oumar Ballo. Like Tubelis, Koloko is a skinny forward who likes to float more than post, but he offers a wealth of rebounding and shot-blocking thanks to his length. Last year Koloko led the Pac 12 in OR% (18th nationally) and ranked 2nd in the league in block rate. He shut down post-ups last season, making opponents shoot over his skyscraper-sized arms:
Ballo is a former 4-star recruit from Mali, an absolute behemoth of a man looking to earn significant minutes after mostly sitting on the bench behind the Zag frontline last season. Ballo offers a nice brawny change of pace from the skinny Tubelis / Koloko combo and should be a force on the glass and immovable object in the paint. Just look how he manhandled this poor Portland Pilot last season:
With Ballo, Tubelis, and Koloko, Lloyd has the ability to create unique combinations that gives him shooting, size, shot-blocking, rebounding, and mobility all at the same time.
Arizona’s wing corps is as deep as my love for Jeni’s ice cream – and that’s deep. Sophomores Bennedict Mathurin and Dalen Terry lead a promising group featuring endless — you guessed it — length! Mathurin joined Tubelis on the Pac 12’s All-Freshman team last season and proved to be one of the nation’s best spot-up shooters on a PPP basis. As shown with a 31-point outburst against Oregon State in last year, Mathurin has the ability to go supernova on any given night, and I believe he will explode this season.
Terry was a starter the first half of the 2020-21 campaign but struggled with consistency; he had multiple games with 120+ o-ratings and just as many with sub-50 o-ratings. Terry doesn’t have great shooting form, but he’s clearly talented and should develop in year 2 as he gets more comfortable on the floor. His 7-foot wingspan should help wreak havoc on the perimeter defensively and contribute to what should be an excellent Zona defense.
Two transfers will help bolster the wing duo of Terry and Mathurin. Pelle Larsson comes to Tucson by way of Utah and Justin Kier arrives from Georgia. Larsson is a money shooter, knocking down 46.3% of his overall 3PA last year and 50% of his 3PA in Pac 12 play. He can handle the rock and play point for the Cats, create his own shot off the bounce, and get to the foul line at a high rate. Turnovers plagued Larsson last season as a freshman, so those will need to be buttoned down in 2021-22 if he’s to provide significant minutes on the ball. Kier is a massive addition simply due to his age. On a roster made up almost entirely of underclassmen Kier is a 6th-year senior whose played at two different programs in George Mason and UGA. He started every game for the Bulldogs last season and brings with him to Tucson shooting, steady ball handling, and defense (4th in the SEC in steals last season). The pair of transfers will compete with Terry for starting 2-guard honors.
Point guard is the weakest area on the Arizona roster, but there’s still talent here with Kerr Kriisa entering his sophomore season. Kriisa was limited to eight games last year and never really asserted himself to his full extent. This year Kriisa will be handed the keys to the Zona offense. Given his shooting splits last year of 0/4 from 2, 2/2 from FT, and 14/38 from 3, we should expect him to be primarily a table setter and spot-up threat, which frankly works perfectly given the talent at the other positions. If Kriisa fails to develop in a meaningful way, Zona will be forced to handle PG by committee, a combination that likely includes Larsson, Terry, and Kier.
From the high school ranks comes 4-star top 100 prospect Shane Nowell (Jaylen Nowell’s brother) and one of the top European prospects, Adama Bal. Nowell decided to keep his commitment to Arizona following the Miller firing, another nod to Lloyd as the right man for the job. The 6’5” sharpshooter is a smooth athlete who likely plays a limited role this season before breaking out next year. Bal is only 17 years old and appears to be a classic Lloyd international recruit, meaning we should expect him to barely play this year before soaring in year two or three. Like everyone else on the Zona roster, Bal is incredibly long, featuring a 6’11” wingspan on his 6’6” frame.
Bottom Line: Arizona might be getting overlooked on the national scale heading into this season. Despite the coaching change, the Cats have the ability to outperform last year’s squad, compete for a Pac 12 title, and crash the top 25. Tommy Lloyd should be a long-term solution at a program accustomed to success.