- Ky McKeon
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Jayden Gardner, Jr., East Carolina
Coach of the Year: Kelvin Sampson, Houston
Newcomer of the Year: Moussa Cisse, Fr., Memphis
Freshman of the Year: Moussa Cisse, Fr., Memphis
Tier 1
1. Houston
See full preview here: #11 in our Top 40 countdown
2. Memphis
See full preview here: #31 in our Top 40 countdown
Tier 2
3. SMU
See full preview here: #38 in our Top 40 countdown
4. Wichita State
Key Returners: Tyson Etienne, Trey Wade, Dexter Dennis, Morris Udeze, Isaiah Poor Bear-Chandler
Key Losses: Erik Stevenson, Jamarius Burton, Grant Sherfield, Jaime Echenique, Noah Fernandes, Asbjorn Midtgaard
Key Newcomers: Alterique Gilbert (UConn), Craig Porter (JUCO), Trevin Wade (JUCO), Clarence Jackson (JUCO), Ricky Council IV, Jaden Seymour, Chaunce Jenkins, Josaphat Bilau (Redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: The Shockers looked to be back to their winning ways early last year following a season in which they missed the NCAA Tournament and “only” went 22-15 (10-8). WSU burst out of the gates to a 15-1 (3-0) record, notching wins at Oklahoma State and UConn, versus Oklahoma and Memphis, and over South Carolina on a neutral floor. Then one of the youngest teams in the country started to act like it, stumbling to an 8-7 finish in AAC play and ending on a precarious perch on the Big Dance bubble. After last season ended abruptly, way-too-early outlooks had Wichita well within the national top 25 to start 2020-21, but then the mass transfer exodus occurred. Three starting underclassmen, Erik Stevenson, Jamarius Burton, and Grant Sherfield opted to take their talents elsewhere leaving many questioning why. Our best guess is Marshall simply promised too many players too much playing time – WSU ranked 26th in the nation in bench minutes and Marshall played a large rotation with no player seeing more than 27 minutes per game. The 13-year Wichita head coach was able to compensate somewhat for his lost production through the DI and JUCO transfer wire, and he should have his Shockers near the top of the AAC once again this season.
By far Marshall’s biggest get on the transfer market this offseason was UConn guard Alterique Gilbert, a grad transfer who put up 14 PTS / 6 REB / 3 AST / 2 BLK / 1 STL on the Shockers last season.
Gilbert fills a massive hole at the point guard spot; he’s a talented player who can create his own shot and set the table for his teammates. He’s dealt with numerous injuries during his career but played a full season in 2019-20, where he turned in a year consistent with an “inefficient gunner”. Marshall is one of the most “no nonsense” coaches in the country, so it will be interesting to see how he handles a player like Gilbert who can sometimes try to do too much on the floor to the detriment of his team. Whatever Gilbert’s ultimate offensive impact may be, he should at the very least contribute as a hard-nosed, pesky on-ball defender, in line with Wichita’s physical, defense-first style of play.
Defense has been Marshall’s calling card throughout his coaching career at Wichita. The Shockers ranked 8th nationally in KenPom’s defensive rankings last year and have almost always been near the top under Marshall. Last season his squad decimated pick-n-rolls and forced teams to beat them off the bounce and take tough two-point jumpers – near-rim and three-point chances were hard to come by. The Shock ranked 3rd in the AAC in defensive 3PA rate and 1st in DR%, a testament to their team-focused, fundamental block-out philosophy.
Returning guard Dexter Dennis was one of the best perimeter defenders in the conference last season, aided by his strength and athleticism. Dennis took a leave of absence from the team last December but returned earlier than expected and provided the Shock with valuable minutes on both ends of the floor. Offensively, Dennis is one of the most prolific three-point shooters on the roster, making 36.6% of his nearly 300 career attempts. He’ll be Sharpied into a starting spot on the wing in his junior year.
Sophomore guard Tyson Etienne also proved to be a great defender in his first season in gold and black. The 6’1” off-guard racked up steals defensively and led the team in 3P shooting on the other end with a 38.8% clip.
Etienne’s steadiness with the ball (2nd lowest TO rate in the AAC) and ability to attack the basket in addition to shooting the three makes him one of the more dynamic offensive weapons in Marshall’s arsenal. Like Dennis, Etienne should be a year-long starter in the WSU backcourt this season.
To bolster his backcourt, Marshall brought in two top 100 JUCO guards this offseason in Craig Porter (#15) and Trevin Wade (#83), as well as 3-star freshman Ricky Council IV. Porter is a smooth combo guard who can really defend – at 6’1” he led his junior college (nationally ranked Vincennes) in steals and blocks in addition to leading them in assists and ranking second in scoring and rebounding. Porter does everything on the floor and should fit the Wichita system perfectly. Wade, a 2nd Team NJCAA All-American, is the little brother of forward Trey Wade, though he stands 7 inches shorter. He’s a bouncy lefty with good handles who can shoot at a high level. Council IV is an athletic, dynamic dunker who actively seeks prey to be yammed upon. His fun fact is that he has two brothers named Ricky Council II (played for UMBC) and Ricky Council III – you can’t make that shit up. While his shot needs some work, Council IV could see the floor based on his athleticism alone.
Up front look for the aforementioned Trey Wade, a former UTEP Miner, and burly 6’8” forward Morris Udeze to man the starting spots. Wade was a staple in last year’s starting five, a solid 4-man with good inside shooting numbers and a high OR%. Wade’s strength, toughness, and ability to step outside the three-point line make him a valuable piece in Marshall’s system. Udeze is a wide, back-to-the-basket big man who eats glass and scores in the post.
While Wade and Udeze have the inside track to starting gigs, look out for redshirt freshman Josaphat Bilau to make a name for himself this year. The 6’10” big took a redshirt last year due to injuries, but he will absolutely be a factor this season with his strength and 7’3” wingspan. Unlike most 6’10” freshman college bigs, Bilau is anything but raw and has the ball skills closer to that of a guard than a forward. Junior Isaiah Poor Bear-Chandler (arguably the best name in college basketball), JUCO transfer Clarence Jackson, and freshmen Jaden Seymour and Chaunce Jenkins will round out the frontcourt / wing rotation. Jackson is the #23 JUCO prospect in the land, a versatile wing with plenty of range. Seymour and Jenkins are both athletic wings with defensive potential. Poor Bear-Chandler is a solid big who sets screens, rebounds, and blocks the occasional shot.
So we’ve established that Marshall should once again have a fierce defense in Wichita, and that his team has plenty of talent to make a run at another NCAA Tournament. However, the offensive end could hold the Shockers back from realizing their postseason goals. 2019-20 was the second straight season in which WSU ranked outside the KenPom top 115 in offense; the Shock shot just 45.8% inside the arc, took poor quality shots, and hardly got anything near the rim. While Wichita did handle the ball and rebound well, the lack of shooting and finishing ability was too much to overcome. Gilbert can be inefficient, but at least he can function as a guy you tell to get you a bucket late in the shot clock or with the game on the line. Etienne and Dennis both have potential to be better offensive players this year as well. The lack of post scoring will likely continue to be a weakness, though Bilau’s potential is off the charts.
Bottom Line: Gregg Marshall’s coaching ability and track record puts a firm floor on how far the Shockers can drop in the AAC standings – it would be a “shocking” development to see them finish outside the top five. I like the young talent Marshall has and the upperclassmen talent he brought in from the transfer wire. Even if the Roundhouse isn’t as rocking as it usually is with COVID-19, WSU should contend for another at-large bid and an AAC championship.
5. Cincinnati
Key Returners: Keith Williams, Chris Vogt, Mika Adams-Woods, Mamadou Diarra, Zach Harvey
Key Losses: Jarron Cumberland, Jaevin Cumberland, Tre Scott, Chris McNeal, Jaume Sorolla
Key Newcomers: Rapolas Ivanauskas (Colgate), David DeJulius (Michigan), Tari Eason, Gabe Madsen, Mike Saunders, Mason Madsen, Viktor Lakhin
Lineup:
Outlook: When I think “Hollywood”, I think “Mick Cronin”. That’s why it came as no surprise when the 13-year Cincy coach packed his bags and headed off to UCLA, answering the call after the Bruins struck out on roughly 100 other offers (numbers approximate). Taking Mick’s spot on the bench in Bearcat country was John Brannen, a coach who enjoyed success at the top of the Horizon with the Northern Kentucky Norse. Brannen’s first season in the American may technically be classified as a slight disappointment, as the Bearcats were likely on the outside looking in for an at-large bid in March. Cincy dropped games to Bowling Green and Colgate in non-conference play and Tulane and UCF in AAC play, all of which could be classified as “bad” or “very bad” losses. However, Brannen’s squad scrapped and clawed its way to a three-way tie for 1st place in the league when all was said and done, and it even earned the #1 seed in the never-to-be-played 2020 AAC tournament. Brannen is a coach we hold in high regard at the Weave; he should be able to maintain the Cincinnati basketball program’s storied success.
Last year’s Bearcat squad was the worst per KenPom since 2010 (Cronin really built this program to an elite level). Considering that fact and the losses of Jarron Cumberland (one of the best players in the country last year), Tre Scott (the 2020 AAC DPOY), and Jaevin Cumberland (best outside shooter on the team), Cincy’s outlook for 2020-21 is somewhat murky. Plenty of talent remains on the Bearcat roster, and Brannen did well on the recruiting path, but questions related to this team’s offensive ability in particular loom large.
Brannen ramped up the tempo from Cronin’s historically tortoise-paced squads, though Cincy was mostly a halfcourt team offensively. The Bearcats ranked 3rd in the AAC in offense (per KenPom) due to their relentless crashing of the glass and attacking of the rim, which often resulted in trips to the foul line. For all of Jarron Cumberland’s inefficiencies last season, he was without a doubt a special offensive talent, able to single-handedly win a game for his team or get a clutch bucket with the game on the line. This year’s roster doesn’t have a Jarron Cumberland, but it does have the pieces to be just as fierce and scrappy on the boards, and it has plenty of speed with which to attack in transition.
Senior guard Keith Williams will be the team’s undisputed floor leader in 2020-21. Williams is perhaps one of the most underrated players in the country with his ability to impact the game immensely on both sides of the court. Very few guys, especially at the guard position, contribute in the shot-blocking, stealing, scoring, and shooting efforts like Williams can – he’s a menace in transition and a nightmare to face as a ballhandler on the perimeter.
The backcourt certainties stop at Williams, but Michigan transfer David DeJulius’s approved eligibility waiver helps that uncertainty tremendously. DeJulius improves Cincy’s ceiling a great deal; he came on nicely last year for the Wolverines and started to scratch the surface of his substantial potential. He adds shooting to a roster in dire need following the departures of the Cumberland bros.
In addition to DeJulius, Brannen will likely also turn to sophomore Mika Adams-Woods, a 19-game starter last season, to run the point. Adams-Woods is a skinny, skilled lefty who shot decently last year but struggled with turnovers. He’ll shoulder much more responsibility this year with Cincy’s thin ball-handling depth chart. Freshman point guard Mike Saunders, a 3-star recruit out of Indy, could also see some run. Brannen calls Saunders one of the fastest point guards in the country and film confirms that assertion – he is BLAZING fast.
On the wing, look for sophomores Zach Harvey and Jeremiah Davenport to compete for starting duties, with Harvey having the inside edge. Harvey was a top 50 recruit in the 2020 class before reclassifying to 2019; he saw limited action as a freshman and turned in mediocre results. With greater PT and a year under his belt, expect Harvey to start to develop his significant potential. Davenport is a big guard at 6’7”; like Harvey he wasn’t used much in 2019-20 but has intriguing untapped potential as a shooter on the wing. Twin freshmen, Gabe and Mason Madsen, will add depth to the backcourt rotation; both brothers averaged roughly 23 PPG in HS and both have pure, gorgeous shooting strokes. Gabe is the bigger of the pair, more of a wing in nature, while Mason is a tough combo guard who can handle the ball.
Like most recent Cincy squads, the Bearcats have size and depth for days in the frontcourt. Former NKU transfer Chris Vogt will reprise his starting center role after turning in a shockingly awesome junior season. Vogt came off the bench for the Norse and was just “OK” in nearly every aspect in 2018-19. Then, he somehow becomes an AAC starter, improves his efficiency across the board, and ranks 2nd in the AAC in FG%, 6th in OR%, and 8th in block rate. Nobody saw that type of leap coming from Vogt, but Bearcat fans are happy it did – with him back in the fold, Cincy has its anchor in the post to continue its tradition of being impossible to score against at the rim.
Competing for the starting 4-spot next to Vogt will be 6’9” junior Mamadou Diarra and Colgate grad transfer Rapolas Ivanauskas. Diarra will see an uptick in PT following Scott’s departure; he adds value as a rebounder and shot blocker and even experimented with his three-point shot last year (5 makes on 7 tries). Cincy’s offense was actually quite good when Diarra shared the floor with Vogt (though it was a rare occurrence), but the Bearcats’ defense suffered. Ivanauskas will be a very different type of Cincy big man, one who is more finesse in nature than physical. The 6’10” senior was a 4-star recruit coming to Northwestern in 2017, but after seeing essentially no floor time, Ivanauskas took his talents to Colgate where he earned Patriot League POY in 2019 and 2nd Team All-Conference in 2020. Ivanauskas can play either the 4 or 5 and can stretch the floor on offense. Hopefully for the Bearcats, Ivanauskas shoots closer to his 43.3% sophomore level than his 26.5% junior mark.
Rounding out the frontcourt rotation will be freshmen Tari Eason and Viktor Lakhin. Eason is a 4-star top 130 recruit out of Seattle. He’s a prototypical Cincy big: super long, athletic, and can block shots. Lakhin is a Russian import who can stretch the floor or play inside; he’s a skilled big with pretty good athleticism.
Even thought the Cats had the AAC DPOY, they weren’t as ferocious a unit as we’re used to seeing out of Cincinnati squads of the past. From 2011 to 2019, Cincy never finished outside the top 28 in defense, per KenPom, and finished in the top 15 five times over that span. Brannen’s squad ranked 51st nationally in KenPom’s rankings and just 5th in the AAC. The Cats took away the three-ball from opponents and funneled ball handlers into the middle where Vogt and Scott lied in wait to swat shots. No team allowed a lower 2PFG% than the Cats in conference play and they shut down rim opportunities like hot girls shut me down in high school. Brannen pressed at the 31st highest rate in the country last year and allowed the 14th lowest PPP in those instances, per Synergy. Scott’s departure hurts Cincy’s defensive outlook this season, but Diarra is a pretty good replacement and Williams will still be one of the best perimeter stoppers in the league. This won’t be a top 15 defense in 2020-21, but I don’t see it falling out of the top 60ish either.
Bottom Line: Cincy’s floor is high this season, but its ceiling is pretty limited. The Cats will likely finish in the top five of the AAC for the umpteenth year, but they’ll be hard-pressed to finish ahead of Houston or even the likes of SMU, Wichita State, and Memphis. Brannen’s track record speaks for itself, so we should expect to see a solid basketball team with the outside potential to punch an at-large bid to the Dance.
Tier 3
6. Tulsa
Key Returners: Brandon Rachal, Darien Jackson, Elijah Joiner, Emmanuel Ugboh
Key Losses: Martins Igbanu, Jeriah Horne, Lawson Korita, Isaiah Hill, Reggie Jones
Key Newcomers: Rey Idowu (Illinois State), Curtis Haywood II (Georgia Tech), Keyshawn Embery-Simpson (Arkansas), Austin Richie (JUCO), Keshawn Williams, Peyton Urbancic, Christian Shumate, Bradley Alcime
Lineup:
Outlook: Before jumping into this preview, it should be known that as a Mizzou alum I am not the biggest fan of Frank Haith due to him being partially responsible for ushering in the Kim Anderson era. His track record of leaving his previous schools (Miami and Missouri) in disarray speaks for itself, so much so that our own Jim Root wrote this piece a few years back.
Now, that doesn’t mean I can’t be an unbiased “journalist” here and give credit where credit is due. Tulsa outperformed everyone’s expectations last season by capturing a share of the AAC title after being picked 10th in the preseason. The Golden Hurricane’s 13-5 league mark resulted in Haith being named coach of the year, a deserved award when measuring against expectations. But, there’s a lot to unpack from Tulsa’s 2020-21 season. Despite sharing the AAC title, Tulsa ranked just 6th in KenPom’s AAC rankings thanks in part to non-conference losses at UT Arlington and at home against Arkansas State. TU wasn’t even in consideration for an at-large bid despite its gaudy record, so I guess you could say the Hurricane were the “South Carolina” of the SEC (good in conference, so-so overall).
Haith has a strong senior trio returning this year in Brandon Rachal, Darien Jackson, and Elijah Joiner, but he loses 1st Team All-AAC forward Martins Igbanu, senior Lawson Korita, and three underclassmen to transfer. To replace the lost production, Haith brought in two DI transfers and a promising JUCO recruit along with a decent freshman class. Like most seasons under Haith, Tulsa will likely be picked to finish in the middle of the conference and have the all-too-familiar underdog label slapped across their backs.
The Hurricane won games on the defensive end last season; they ranked 34th nationally in defense per KenPom (2nd in the AAC) and were Haith’s best defensive squad of his 16-year coaching career. Haith ran a funky matchup 2-3 zone that confused opponents and took away everything in the paint and at the rim. Opposing teams shot a ton of threes against the Hurricane but made just 29.9% of them (part of this was due to the fact the AAC was the third worst shooting conference in college basketball). In addition to his zone, Haith’s man-to-man defense was one of the best in the country – Tulsa allowed the 4th fewest PPP when in man, a result of athletic, versatile, and switchable lineups. Jeriah Horne and Igbanu were two of Tulsa’s better defenders in the frontcourt, so their departures may hurt the Hurricane on this end, but Haith should still have a stout defense with his stable of athletes and upperclassmen leadership.
Offense was a struggle for TU last year and has been under Haith for his six-year stretch at the school. Only once have the Hurricane finished in the national top 100 in offensive efficiency and last year TU finished a woeful 168th. Turnovers, lack of rebounding, and poor shooting was Tulsa’s demise in 2019-20, the Hurricane relied heavily on free throws (30th nationally in FT rate) to score points and often played through Igbanu in the post. Last season was Haith’s slowest squad since his Miami days, perhaps without a go-to paint presence like Igbanu TU will open up the offense a bit more and play closer to its 2018-19 tempo.
Brandon Rachal is the returner to watch for the Hurricane this year, a former LSU Tiger and 3rd Team All-AAC selection in 2019-20. Rachal impacts the game in a major way on both ends of the floor with his rebounding, scoring ability, and defensive prowess. While not a good outside shooter, Rachal finds other ways to score be it via dribble penetration, post-ups, or pull-ups in the middle of the floor. With a general lack of proven frontcourt bodies on this year’s roster, Rachal may see significant time at the “4-spot” in Tulsa’s attack.
Two of Tulsa’s other three returning seniors will man spots in the starting backcourt. Elijah Joiner will assume most of TU’s point guard duties; he’s more of a driver than a shooter but did rank second on the team with a 34.4% clip in 2019-20. Joiner has good size for a PG and uses it to his advantage when driving the lane or bellying up to opponents on the perimeter. Darien Jackson likely starts at the 2 where he acts as a secondary ball handler and yet another dribble-drive threat. Jackson is most valuable for his defense, ranking 7th in the AAC in steal rate last season.
Competing for minutes on the wing will be Georgia Tech transfer Curtis Haywood II, Arkansas transfer Keyshawn Embery-Simpson, and JUCO transfer Austin Richie. Haywood started 19 games for a bad GT squad back in 2018-19; he brings ball handling and shooting to the fold, though he knocked down only 27.6% of his 3P attempts as a sophomore. In true Tulsa guard fashion, Haywood can be a menace on the defensive end and ranked 5th in the ACC in steal rate two seasons ago. Embery-Simpson, a combo guard who came out of HS in 2018 as a top 140 recruit, bolted from Fayetteville following the firing of Mike Anderson. Like Haywood, Embery-Simpson has the ability to shoot but has yet to prove it at the collegiate level. Richie might be the most impactful of the three transfers; he earned a spot on the 3rd Team NJCAA All-American squad last year and comes to Tulsa as the 65th ranked JUCO recruit in the class of 2020. Richie averaged 16.4 PPG last year, made the 2nd most three-pointers at the JUCO level in the country, and shot 44.9% from downtown. He started his career in disappointing fashion at Northern Illinois but has since matured and improved upon his game.
Two freshmen, Keshawn Williams and Peyton Urbancic will fight for any playing time they can get in their first season in Tulsa. Williams is a 3-star PG out of Chicago with the quickness and athleticism to play right away. Urbancic is an unheralded recruit who brings shooting to the fold.
Frontcourt production could be a real issue for the Hurricane this season. Starting center option Emmanuel Ugboh was used sparingly last year despite starting 15 games; he’s a zero on offense but does bring rebounding and immense size to the lineup. Illinois State transfer Rey Idowu could have the inside lane towards starting after posting 14 starts for the Redbirds last season. His lack of shot-blocking and mild rebounding splits don’t inspire a lot of confidence though. 6’7” sophomore Josh Earley likely sees a significant spike in his playing time; he posted sky high rebounding rates in limited minutes as a freshman. Two newcomers, Bradley Alcime and Christian Shumate will also compete for frontcourt minutes. Alcime is a versatile forward who can stretch the floor from the 4-spot, while Shumate, a HS teammate of Keshawn Williams, is a very athletic, long combo forward who blocked 7 shots per game his senior year in high school.
Bottom Line: Tulsa is just good enough to be ranked ahead of the (mostly) below average bottom half of the AAC but there’s very little reason to think the Hurricane can repeat their surprise 2019-20 performance and crack the conference top four. Rachal is an All-Conference player but the rest of the roster is chock full of question marks.
7. Central Florida
Key Returners: Collin Smith, Darin Green Jr., Brandon Mahan, Tony Johnson Jr., Dre Fuller Jr., Avery Diggs, Ibrahim Famouke Doumbia
Key Losses: Caesar DeJesus, Dazon Ingram, Matt Milon, Frank Bertz
Key Newcomers: CJ Walker (Oregon)***, Darius Perry (Louisville), Sean Mobley (VCU), Jamille Reynolds, Isaiah Adams, Moses Bol (JUCO)
*** As of this preview date Walker has not yet received a waiver to play immediately. We assume he will ultimately get one.
Lineup:
Outlook: It turns out when you lose four starters from an NCAA Tournament team and your school name isn’t in the “Blue Blood” conversation, the season can be quite challenging. Johnny Dawkins learned about that last year when the majority of his minutes walked out the door. One of those departures was 10-foot skyscraper Tacko Fall, a must-see basketball giant who was worth the price of admission. Fall’s departure had catastrophic consequences on UCF’s defense – per KenPom, the Knights went from 33rd nationally in defense to 98th and from 34th in block rate to 207th. Likewise, BJ Taylor’s graduation, Aubrey Dawkins’s decision to turn pro, and Terrell Allen’s choice to transfer, gutted an offense that ranked among the top 50 nationally and 4th in the AAC. With that amount of talent walking out the door, it’s no surprise the Knights turned in their worst season in four years under Dawkins.
2020-21 should be a bounce back of sorts for UCF. The Knights lose three key backcourt pieces in Caesar DeJesus, Dazon Ingram, and Matt Milon but all three are replaceable – UCF returns four other backcourt role players eager to earn more PT and welcomes Louisville transfer Darius Perry to the fold. Up front, UCF will have one of the deepest forward corps in the AAC, highlighted by the return of potential All-Conference senior Collin Smith and Oregon transfer CJ Walker.
UCF played offense last season through Smith who ranked 2nd in the conference in usage. Possessions often involved a plethora of off-ball screens and movement before ultimately getting the ball to Smith at the top of the key, at the elbow, or on the block. Smith’s ability to face-up, drive, and kick to open shooters when defenders collapsed made him a dangerous offensive weapon.
Spot-up shooters like Darin Green Jr. and Brandon Mahan feasted off Smith kicks, leading to UCF ranking 1st in the AAC in 3P% with a surprisingly low 33.5%. Smith ranked 3rd among all AAC forward in assists in 2019-20 and figures to be one of the top big men in the conference heading into this year.
Smith will have more help this year from a sheer talent perspective with the arrival of CJ Walker, a former 5-star recruit who should earn a waiver due to being from Orlando. Walker is DRIPPING with two-way talent; he’s extremely long and athletic and has the ability to score in a multitude of ways. At Oregon, Walker often looked lost offensively, tending to float on the perimeter or follow the ball, but there is no denying his talent and a season under his belt should help iron out any awareness issues.
Walker may not be the “number one” option every time down the floor, but he is going to have a huge impact on both ends of the court and his presence alone raises UCF’s ceiling.
The aforementioned Green and Mahan will compete for starting minutes on the wing alongside fellow returner Dre Fuller Jr. Green enjoyed a fantastic freshman season in which he led the conference in 3P% (45.5%) and eFG% (63.7%). His smooth stroke will space the floor allowing Smith and Walker to work inside the arc. Mahan, a former Texas A&M Aggie, is also a good shooter but his 3P percentage tanked from a productive freshman year in College Station (38.4% to 29.8%). Mahan’s form is sound, and he has major range – I’d expect a return to TAMU shooting numbers this season. Fuller missed significant time in the second half of last year due to a groin injury. Prior to that he was a regular starter who provided offense via slashing from the wing and solid perimeter defense with his impressive size.
VCU transfer Sean Mobley and 3-star freshman Isaiah Adams will also be factors in the rotation at the 3 and/or 4 spot. Mobley started 23 games for the Rams as a sophomore and functions mostly as a spot-up shooter. Adams was Florida’s Mr. Basketball last season; he’s a very athletic player who can impact several facets of the game.
Sophomore point guard Tony Johnson Jr. will either see run alongside Perry in the starting five or will resume a backup ball handling role similar to last season. Johnson turned in a high assist rate but was susceptible to turnovers. While not a good shooter, Johnson is skilled off the bounce and flashed his burgeoning potential in a February game at Cincinnati where he put up a stat line of 21 PTS, 9 REB, 6 AST, and 6 STL. Perry likely starts at PG for the Knights, but he was arguably better off the ball for Louisville where he could utilize his cash spot-up jumper instead of trying to initiate offense. Like Johnson, Perry has struggled with turnover issues in every collegiate season – perhaps life in the AAC will prove better than that in the ACC.
Dawkins’s deep frontcourt bench will include returning centers Avery Diggs and Ibrahim Famouke Doumbia, freshman PF Jamille Reynolds, and JUCO import Moses Bol. Diggs is a big-time shot blocker who offers limited production from an offensive standpoint. Doumbia is a more skilled offensive player who turned in ridiculously high rebounding and block rates during his freshman year. Reynolds is a 3-star prospect with long arms who projects mostly as a defensive presence. Bol (Manute’s cousin) is a 7’1” shot swatter – he averaged 2.2 BPG in JUCO last season. Of the group, Doumbia should be the most impactful, but Smith and Walker will see the significant share of minutes at the 5 and 4, respectively.
Johnny Dawkins usually has top tier defenses – in 12 years of coaching, he’s had only one squad finish outside of the KenPom top 100 ranks and has finished in the top 40 five times. Last year’s UCF squad was his worst defensively since 2016 Stanford and 4th worst of his coaching career. Fall obviously mattered – Smith is not nearly the shot blocker Fall was, but he does have the length to bother opposing post players. Walker’s presence should be a boost on this end – he can provide steals, blocks, and all kinds of disruption with his length and athleticism. UCF’s overall increase in experience itself should lead to improvement on this end as well. Dawkins likely continues implementing a healthy diet of zone and full-court press to go along with his traditional man, one that looked to force turnovers last season and shut down transition chances.
Bottom Line: UCF’s outlook is very similar to its in-state rival USF. The Knights have the pieces to make a run at the top half of the AAC standings, and Dawkins has the track record to prove he can finish that high in the league. Walker will be the key – if he lives up to his potential this becomes a very dangerous squad capable of winning just about any game it enters. If Walker fails to live up to the hype, however, it’ll be another long season in Orlando.
8. South Florida
Key Returners: David Collins, Alexis Yetna, Justin Brown, Michael Durr, Xavier Castaneda, Ezacuras Dawson III, Rashun Williams, Madut Akec
Key Losses: LaQuincy Rideau, Antun Maricevic
Key Newcomers: Caleb Murphy, Prince Oduro (Mississippi State), Luke Anderson (Iowa State), Russel Tchewa (Texas Tech)
Lineup:
Outlook: USF returned all five starters last year from a 24-14 CBI championship squad, leading to the Bulls being picked 5th in the preseason AAC poll. Star guards David Collins and LaQuincy Rideau and forward Alexis Yetna were chosen as preseason All-Conference members, ready to lead USF back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2012. Then the injury devil came a knockin’. Yetna went down with an ACL tear prior to the start of the season, stripping the Bulls of the best rebounder in the league. Everything snowballed from there. USF lost by 17 points at home to IUPUI of all teams in the third game of the season and never fully recovered despite scoring a few big wins in conference play.
Brian Gregory enters his 4th year at the helm of the program and looks to bounce back from last year’s disappointment. He’ll have one of the most experienced teams in the country this season, chock full of upperclassmen including four returning starters plus a (hopefully) healthy Yetna. Rideau’s departure is significant, but USF has a fighter’s chance to finish in the top half of the league in 2020-21.
Offensive incompetency has plagued the USF program for many, many years. Under Gregory, the Bulls have never had a top 200 KenPom offense, and the school hasn’t had a top 100 KenPom offense since 2010. Gregory has historically played at a slow pace during his coaching career and slammed the brakes on his team’s tempo in 2019-20 after implementing a quicker-than-normal pace the year prior. Like every other AAC team, the Bulls were a brutal shooting team – the worst in league play – and coughed up the ball at the 335th worst rate in the country. USF has been forced to rely on the offensive glass and the free throw line to score the past two seasons under Gregory – the Bulls ranked 1st in the country in FT rate and 10th in OR% in 2018-19 and 58th in FT rate and 43rd in OR% in 2019-20. Collins and Rideau were constantly run off ball screens to create offense, something that likely decreases somewhat this season with Rideau’s departure and Yetna’s return.
Yetna’s impact on the USF lineup cannot be overstated. The 6’8” redshirt junior was the AAC’s Freshman of the Year in 2019 after leading the league in rebounding and ranking 23rd in scoring. Yetna gives the Bulls a legitimate scoring threat on the block and a deadly pick-n-pop option on the perimeter – his strength and ability to rebound also creates those much-needed second chance opportunities that USF relies on to score.
Collins’s announcement that he was returning to school after briefly flirting with the NBA Draft came as a sigh of relief to USF faithful. While his efficiency tanked last season from a productive sophomore year, there’s no denying Collins’s overwhelming talent and ability to create. Last season, Collins ranked 3rd in the AAC (and 17th nationally) in FT rate – he has an uncanny knack of getting to the basket and shrugging off defenders while staying in full control of his body.
Expect Collins’s usage to spike this season sans Rideau, a guy he had to share the spotlight with the past two years. Without Rideau, Collins will have the ultimate green light and be the undisputed offensive alpha – that will almost certainly result in plenty of feasts as well as famines throughout the 2020-21 season.
Collins can handle the ball and run the offense, but the Bulls would likely prefer him to play mostly off the ball in more of a direct scoring role. As such, 6’1” junior Xavier Castaneda becomes the likely replacement for Rideau at the point. Castaneda has posted sky high turnover rates his first two collegiate seasons and needs to get that in check if he expects to hang on to the starting PG role throughout the course of the year. His lack of shooting ability is also cause for concern. Because of this, top 100 recruit Caleb Murphy is liable to see significant playing time and even starting gigs in his inaugural year in Tampa. Murphy is a long, smooth combo guard with as much swagger and confidence as any incoming recruit in college basketball – he’s ready to play at the DI level and should carve out a nice career at USF assuming he sticks around.
Returners Justin Brown and Ezacuras “Zack” Dawson III will compete for starting minutes on the wing alongside Collins and Castenada/Murphy. Brown is a good rebounder for his position and a decent outside shooter. In 2020-21, Brown ranked 4th in the AAC in O-rating and was the only Bull who played meaningful minutes to score over 1.00 PPP. He’s proven he can pack a scoring punch when needed as evidenced by his 22-point outburst against UConn last year. Dawson is primarily a shooting threat, knocking down 37.8% of his three-point tries in 2019-20. Jamir Chaplin, a 6’5” sophomore, will provide depth on the wing.
In the frontcourt, 7-foot behemoth Michael Durr will combine forces with Yetna to form an intimidating front line. Durr is a rebound extraordinaire and capable shot blocker. He still needs a little polish offensively but did finish much better in the paint last year than his freshman season.
Elsewhere up front, look for junior Rashun Williams, Miss State transfer Prince Oduro, and Texas Tech transfer Russel Tchewa to see the majority of minutes behind Yetna and Durr. Williams is an active hustler on the floor, a guy who scraps for extra possessions and can turn up the intensity on defense. Oduro is a big, strong post player who was very productive at Siena before being buried at Miss State. He’ll provide USF with even more rebounding and shot blocking, though his 37.4% career clip from the FT line will hinder his otherwise promising contribution as a forward who can draws fouls. Tchewa didn’t see a ton of run for the Red Raiders last year, but he’s a big 7-footer with shot-blocking ability. 6’7” sophomore Madut Akec, a stretch-4 with rebounding chops, and Iowa State transfer Luke Anderson round out the frontcourt rotation. Anderson never played for the Cyclones prior to transferring but came in as a 3-star recruit. He’s a skilled, fundamental big man who can step away from the hoop and shoot the three.
USF wins games with its defense, one that ranked 63rd in KenPom last year and 37th in 2018-19. The Bulls are elite at causing turnovers, primarily via steals, which is where Rideau’s absence will hurt the most. Rideau was the AAC DPOY two seasons ago and ranked in the national top 6 in steal rate three straight years. Collins is a gifted swiper as well, but very few are on the same plane as Rideau in the pilfering department. USF should still cause turnovers but it’ll most likely be at a lower rate. Elsewhere, the Bulls should still be sound on the defensive glass, force teams to play at a slower tempo, and hold their own closing out on shooters with their athletic perimeter rotation.
Bottom Line: The top five of the AAC is very tough, and I have a hard time seeing any of those teams finishing lower than that tier. However, USF does have a shot at cracking the top half of the league with its immense experience and the dynamic duo of Collins and Yetna. For now, I’ll err on the side of caution and pick the Bulls 8th, as even when they won the CBI they still only finished T-7th in the league. Look for the Bulls to be one of the best rebounding teams in the country, pretty good defensively, and below average offensively once again.
Tier 4
9. Temple
Key Returners: JP Moorman, Jake Forrester, De’Vondre Perry, Arashma Parks
Key Losses: Quinton Rose, Alani Moore, Nate Pierre-Louis, Monty Scott, Josh Pierre-Louis, Justyn Hamilton, Damion Moore
Key Newcomers: Tai Strickland (Wisconsin), Jahlil White, Quincy Ademokoya, Jeremiah Williams, Nick Jourdain, Sage Tolbert (SEMO)***, Khalif Battle (Butler)***
*** Tolbert and Battle are seeking waivers to become immediately eligible. As of this preview date they have not received a waiver.
Lineup:
Outlook: Replacing a legend is never easy, a lesson Aaron McKie, a Temple legend in his own right, discovered last season following the retirement of 13-year head coach Fran Dunphy. McKie’s Owls started the season in promising fashion, taking down USC on the road in non-conference play and competing with Miami FL, Missouri, and Maryland. Then AAC play rolled around. Temple quickly slid to the bottom of the standings (losing to Philly Five rival Penn along the way) and ended the year on a five-game losing skid. Last year was the program’s first losing season since 2014 and just the 4th since 1976.
Despite his team’s performance, McKie was not short on confidence following the end of the year, as shown by his statements in Brian Hamilton’s Athletic piece.
You have high expectations for your team, and the goal for me was to finish at the top of the American (Athletic Conference), put ourselves in a situation where we could be in the NCAA Tournament and have a say as to who’s the national champion. Now, during the regular season, we didn’t play our part. Just based on our record. But we still had an opportunity, if we would have done really well winning the conference championship in Fort Worth (Texas).
Confidence is good trait to have as a coach or player but having realistic expectations is essential in order to accurately measure performance and track development of a program – especially during a rebuild. Make no mistake about it, even though McKie may have similar league title aspirations heading into this coming season, Temple is securely in the bottom half of the AAC from a talent / roster perspective. The Owls’ three best players, Quinton Rose, Alani Moore, and Nate Pierre-Louis, all departed this offseason leaving only a handful of returning role players, an unproven transfer, and a decent recruiting class. Temple will be young, inexperienced, and unproven to start the 2020-21 season.
Like several other AAC squads, Temple was poor offensively and solid defensively last season. The Owl offense was by far the school’s worst in the KenPom era (dating back to 1997) – poor shooting and poor shot selection being the main culprits behind the struggles. Like most NBA-influenced coaches, McKie prefers an uptempo system in which transition is a primary offensive focus. His squad moved the ball at an impressive rate (very high assist rate) but overall shot selection and conversion lagged. In the aforementioned Athletic article, McKie hinted he wants to run more pick-n-roll this season but without a proven creator handling the rock results may be sub-optimal.
Defensively, Temple ranked in the top 50 per KenPom but just 8th in AAC play – the Owls kept teams away from the rim, shut down transition opportunities, and pressed at a fairly high rate. Rose, Moore, and Pierre-Louis were all good defenders on the perimeter for the Owls last season, so losing its entire starting backcourt will likely cause a decline in Temple’s defensive rating in 2020-21.
I don’t think it’s a hot take to say point guard is the most important position for a college basketball team – uncertainty here often leads to poor on-court performance. Temple has uncertainty in spades this season with the departures of Moore and Josh Pierre-Louis. To run his offense, McKie will turn to Wisconsin transfer Tai Strickland, the son of former NBAer Rod Strickland. Strickland didn’t play much for the Badgers, but he did show some flashes of shooting and playmaking competency in limited minutes. The Owls have literally nobody else to the run the point, so it will be Strickland’s show – hopefully that results in confidence versus nervousness.
Starting with Strickland in the backcourt should be redshirt freshman Damian Dunn, a 6’5” off-guard who missed nearly all of last season with a foot injury. McKie has high praise for Dunn, a guy who could easily lead the Owls in scoring; he’s a smooth player who can drive and shoot. Like Strickland, though, Dunn is completely unproven at the DI level.
Guard depth is thin for Temple this season, especially if Butler transfer Khalif Battle is forced to sit (all signs point to he will). McKie will rely on a trio of 3-star freshman wings to provide production off the bench behind Strickland and Dunn. This could lead to an intimidating defensive perimeter shell, as all three newcomers are long and at least 6’5”, but offense may be a different story. Jahlil White, a long 6’7” wing, will likely be the answer to Temple’s PG depth question. A “point forward” of sorts, White can handle the ball and initiate an offense when needed and wreak havoc defensively on smaller guards. While not a crazy athlete, White is a capable slasher from the wing. Quincy Ademokoya, a 2021 reclass, brings shooting and scoring to the Owls, while Chicago product Jeremiah Williams brings a heavy dose of athleticism to both ends of the floor.
Temple’s four primary returners reside in the frontcourt, which should give the Owls plenty of depth at the 4 and 5. However, there are no “standouts” in this group – it’s four average to above-average college players who will bring their lunch pails to work every day and provide solid-at-best production. JP Moorman is the most experienced starter of the bunch, a 6’7” girthy forward who was the lowest-used player on the team last season (of those meeting the minutes requirement). Moorman can stretch the floor and has a feathery touch inside the paint – he’s a strong forward who will contribute offensively but not so much on the other end. Jake Forrester, a former IU Hoosier, will play the lion’s share of the 5-man minutes. He’s long and can run the floor well for a big but is not the most skilled player offensively. Senior PF De’Vondre Perry can play multiple spots in the frontcourt including the 3, where he’ll serve as a knockdown outside shooter (41% from deep last year) and an excellent, versatile defender. Arashma Parks enters his sophomore year looking to earn more PT after posting good OR% numbers his freshman year. Like Forrester, Parks is a long, mobile big man who needs some work on his finishing. Freshman forward Nick Jourdain, ranked as a 3-star prospect in some places, promises to be a factor on the glass and an aid to the Temple rim protection effort. SEMO transfer Sage Tolbert, a monster on the glass and nightly double-double threat will compete for starts if granted a waiver to play right away.
Bottom Line: Aaron McKie has his work cut out for him this year if he wants to compete at the top in a very crowded AAC. On paper the Owls have no business improving from last season, but perhaps the exodus of some more “ball-dominant” players will open up the offense a little more and lift the team as a whole. I doubt it.
10. East Carolina
Key Returners: Jayden Gardner, Tristen Newton, JJ Miles, Tremont Robinson-White, Brandon Suggs, Tyrie Jackson, Charles Coleman, Bitumba Baruti, Miles James, Ludgy Debaut, Edra Luster
Key Losses: Logan Curtis
Key Newcomers: Noah Farrakhan, Derrick Quansah
Lineup:
Outlook: East Carolina joined the DI ranks back in 1966. Since then, the program has earned a trip to the NCAA Tournament just two times, the last of which being in 1993. A consistent AAC bottom feeder since joining the league 2014, the Pirates turned to Joe Dooley, who previously led ECU back in the late 90s, to build a sustainable and winning program. Dooley improved upon a dreadful 2018-19 season, leading the Pirates to an 11-20 (5-13) mark last year but more importantly a 47-spot jump in KenPom’s rankings. Dooley had one of the youngest and least continuous squads in the country last season, making his relatively solid performance even more impressive. This year’s ECU squad will feature Dooley’s best roster since returning to the program – nearly everyone returns from last season including AAC POY candidate Jayden Gardner.
Everything ECU does on the court revolves around Gardner, a 6’7” junior forward who led the league in scoring last season on his way to earning a spot on the All-Conference 2nd Team. Gardner was the 5th highest used player in the AAC last year – the Pirates look to throw it to the big man on the block or really just get the ball into his hands on every possession down the floor. Gardner’s unique combination of mobility, energy, and strength makes him nearly unstoppable on the offensive end – whether he’s handling the ball in transition, cutting through the paint, or facing up in the post, there’s little defenses can do to slow the star forward down.
Frankly, it’s shocking that Gardner is still at ECU considering the current transfer environment, but Dooley must do something Gardner likes to keep him around – perhaps it’s allowing him to do literally whatever he wants on the court.
So how was ECU so bad last season when it had a stud like Gardner leading the charge? Well, the Pirates are an absolutely atrocious shooting team. Not only does this constrict Gardner’s space to work inside the arc, it also allows opponents to liberally double-team Gardner every time he touches the ball. ECU ranked 346th in the country and dead last in the AAC in 3P% last season – the Pirates rely on transition, post play, and the free throw line to score points, most of which are scored by Gardner.
This isn’t to say ECU is completely lacking in talent at every other position. Rising sophomore guard Tristen Newton has a promising future in front of him after turning in a solid freshman year. Newton shot well compared to his fellow Pirates and showed off a propensity to get to the basket and earn trips to the charity stripe. He’ll play both on and off the ball, splitting PG duties with 6’1” junior Tremont Robinson-White, who was extremely inefficient in his first year in the ECU program. Former Virginia Tech guard Tyrie “Pig” Jackson will also handle the ball a fair amount; he didn’t have quite the impact last year as most expected after transferring from the JUCO ranks, but he’s clearly talented and a guy Dooley will rely on to aid in the scoring department.
Dooley’s primary wings will be 6’7” senior JJ Miles and 6’6” sophomore Brandon Suggs, both of whom should see a handful of starts during the season. Miles was ECU’s best outside shooter last year, knocking down 34.7% of his 3PA in AAC play, and the Pirates’ best defender per Synergy. Suggs started 22 games as a freshman; he’s a big wing who likes to slash from the perimeter and also adds value on the defensive end as a player who can match up with multiple positions. 6’6” junior Miles James will provide depth on the wing while 3-star freshman Noah Farrakhan will push Newton, Jackson, and Robinson-White for minutes at the 1 and 2. Farrakhan is a skinny, skilled guard with ample quickness and confidence – I’d wager he develops into one of ECU’s better players over the next year or two.
Dooley is probably best-off allowing Gardner to play the 5 and trying to space the floor with a 4-guard lineup, but he mostly played two bigs last season. Senior Bitumba Baruti is listed as a guard on the ECU website but mostly played the 4 in smaller lineups. Baruti, who began his career at Washington, is a defensive presence who has yet to provide consistent offense. Outside of Baruti, Dooley will have four 7-footers to choose from to pair in the frontcourt with Gardner. Charles Coleman started 20 games as a freshman in 2019-20; he’s a decent shot blocker but still very raw from offensive standpoint. Ludgy Debaut started ECU’s first three games last season before going down with a foot injury – he too adds shot blocking and limited offense. Edra Luster likely won’t play over Coleman or Debaut and freshman Derrick Quansah has some room to grow before being a consistent contributor.
ECU wasn’t great on the defensive end in 2019-20, though it wasn’t as poor as its offense. The Pirates are a good rebounding team and have plenty of athletic perimeter players and size up front to be an intimidating defensive squad. With the amount of continuity from last season, we should expect ECU to improve on this end, perhaps even significantly. Dooley will mix in some full-court trapping presses and 2-3 zone in addition to straight halfcourt man.
Bottom Line: It’s important to remember that a team returning everyone from last season does not automatically signify a drastic improvement. I do believe ECU will be better in 2020-21 but it’s hard to see them finishing higher than 10th even with all of the returning minutes and a POY candidate in Gardner. Expect the Pirates to compete in games they have no business winning but also lose some real head scratchers.
11. Tulane
Key Returners: Jordan Walker, Nobal Days, RJ McGee
Key Losses: KJ Lawson, TeShaun Hightower, Christion Thompson, Nic Thomas, Kevin Zhang
Key Newcomers: Jaylen Forbes (Alabama), Gabe Watson (Southern Miss), Kevin Cross (Nebraska), Sion James, Tylan Pope (Redshirt), Jadan Coleman, Oton Jankovic (Vanderbilt)***
*** Jankovic has not received a waiver to become immediately eligible as of this preview date.
Lineup:
Outlook: Ron Hunter is one of our favorite (and best) coaches in the country, which is why it pains me to bring up this little chestnut from last year…
There’s not a coach in America that will tell you he’s OK with his squad being picked to finish last in his league, but in Hunter’s defense Tulane was an objectively better team than East Carolina last season outside of, you know, the two games they played East Carolina. The Green Wave may have indeed finished last in the AAC in 2019-20, but the program is in EXTRAORINARILY better shape than it was under Mike Dunleavy, a coach who led the Wave to an 0-18 conference showing in 2018-19 and probably shouldn’t have been hired in the first place. Hunter built Tournament programs at IUPUI and Georgia State prior to coming to Tulane, and I refuse to bet against him doing it again despite the Wave not making the Dance since 1995.
Tulane will not make the Tournament this season, and heck it might even finish last in the league again, but Hunter has proven he can get elite transfer talent to come to New Orleans – he will have this program competing in the AAC before too long.
Tulane’s three best players from last year are gone – KJ Lawson finally retired from college ball after 10 seasons, Christion Thompson graduated, and TeShaun Hightower was booted from the team. Additionally, promising big man Kevin Zhang went pro and key role player Nic Thomas exhausted his collegiate eligibility. That leaves the Wave with one scorer in Jordan Walker, one big man in Nobal Days, and one fringe role player returning for a squad coming off a 12-18 (4-14) season. Hunter has some intriguing transfer pieces coming to school this year in Jaylen Forbes (Alabama), Kevin Cross (Nebraska), Oton Jankovic (Vanderbilt), and Gabe Watson (Southern Miss), but that collective is objectively worse than the group walking out the door. Pitt grad transfer Ryan Murphy was supposed to be coming to town, but he opted to turn pro instead.
Walker will be thrust into a larger role this year, likely taking over full-time point guard duties as well as shouldering a bigger scoring load. The 5’11” junior is a very good outside shooter, knocking down 37.5% of his trey-ball attempts last year and has the speed to blow by defenders in transition and on the perimeter. Defensively, Walker is one of the very best in the AAC at forcing steals, a key component to Tulane’s defensive efforts. Alongside Walker in the backcourt will be Southern Miss transfer Gabe Watson and Jaylen Forbes, a guy who was more or less forced out at Alabama due to over-recruiting. Watson led C-USA in minutes last year and can run the point and potentially lead Tulane in scoring. Forbes can shoot as well, though his 21.4% clip as a freshman isn’t too pretty. Forbes is also a great athlete, a guy who can score in multiple ways outside catch-and-shoot.
Sophomore guard RJ McGee will also be a bigger factor in the lineup this season after starting two games as a rookie in 2019-20. McGee shot well in limited minutes and brings athleticism to the floor. He’ll compete with incoming freshmen Sion James and Jadan Coleman for playing time; Hunter has been known to keep a short bench so minutes are not a given despite the limited eligible guards on the roster. James is a big point guard at 6’5”; he isn’t bouncy but he’s built and very strong for his age. James will contribute as table-setter and slasher on offense. Coleman will contribute in the shooting and scoring departments as well, though his impact will be less than James’s.
Nobody in Tulane’s frontcourt is a scoring threat, plain and simple. Nobal Days, Ibby Ali, Buay Koka, and Tylan Pope will battle for minutes at the 4 and 5 but none of them are going to be put up big numbers on offense. All four guys, however, will be useful on the glass and defensively in the interior. Days started 12 games as a freshman and ranked 7th in the AAC in block rate; he has some touch around the cup and even experimented with his three-point shooting last season. Ali was a 3-star recruit out of HS and initially committed to Arkansas – he played sparingly at Tulane last season due to injury but should see some run in his redshirt sophomore year. Koka is very long and very raw, a shot blocker who can take up space in the paint but one who won’t see a ton of run for long stretches of play. Pope took a redshirt last season after coming in as a 3-star recruit and initially committing to SFA; he’s a girthy forward with long arms who I could actually see starting in this paper-thin frontcourt. Thankfully for Tulane, Kevin Cross was granted a waiver this offseason after transferring from Nebraska. Cross played big minutes for the Huskers but it was more so due to the fact that Nebraska had very few bigs on the roster and less to do with Cross’s actual basketball ability. At Tulane, though, Cross should be able to carve out a starting spot, stretch the floor, and perhaps use that season spent in the fire in Lincoln as a launching pad to develop his game.
Offensively, Tulane is going to struggle. Hightower was a ball-dominant player and the Wave ran the 4th most pick-n-roll in the country to aid him in scoring. Nobody on this roster can score like Hightower, Thompson, or Lawson, so offense may be hard to come by – perhaps Hunter ramps up tempo and tries to beat opposing teams on the run versus the half-court as a result.
Defensively, Tulane was the worst in the AAC per KenPom but there’s reason to believe they can improve on this end. Hunter employs an extended 1-2-2 zone that falls back into a hybrid matchup 2-3 look that can be difficult to prepare for if run correctly. The Wave will force turnovers and allow teams to take jump shots over the zone; the paint is strictly forbidden. An improvement point on this end for Tulane this season will be the defensive glass, as the Wave were routinely bullied in this department last season giving their opponents easy put-back opportunities.
Bottom Line: Tulane will win some games this year purely because Ron Hunter is roaming the sidelines – he’s one of the country’s best coaches and single-handedly will bring this program back to prominence. There just isn’t enough talent this year on this roster for even Hunter to do much with – expect the Wave to finish in the bottom two of the AAC for the 4th time in five seasons.