Ranking the Coaches: Part III

This is part three of our three-part study where we take a closer look at 50 college basketball coaches and rank them on an objective scale. See Part One of our analysis for a refresher on how the scores and rankings were calculated and Part Two for #29 - #11.

Before we get down to the top ten, here’s a list of 21 coaches that were snubbed from this analysis. Some didn’t have enough years; some didn’t intrigue me. My endless apologies to these 21:

Kevin Ollie (UConn); Larry Brown (SMU); Billy Kennedy (Texas A&M); Frank Martin (South Carolina); Larry Krystowiak (Utah); Andy Enfield (USC); Mike Lonergan (GW); Archie Miller (Dayton); Ben Jacobson (Northern Iowa); Tad Boyle (Colorado); Mark Fox (Georgia); Tubby Smith (Texas Tech); Richard Pitino (Minnesota); Brian Gregory (Georgia Tech); John Groce (Illinois); Phil Martelli (St. Joseph’s); Randy Bennett (St. Mary’s); Tim Miles (Nebraska); Johnny Dawkins (Stanford); Buzz Williams (Virginia Tech); Steve Wojciechowski (Marquette)

Sorry dudes.

Without further ado, I give you Part III: Coaches #10 - #1.

10. Shaka Smart (VCU – Currently w/ Texas)
Average Starting Rank: 39th
Average Finishing Rank: 29th
Performance Variance: 25%
Tournament Appearances: 5
Tournament Performance: 2 First Rounds, 2 Second Rounds, 1 Final Four
Recruiting: D
Recruits: D
Total Score: 19

We really can’t talk enough about how good of a job Shaka Smart did during his tenure at VCU. Smart took over for the Rams in 2009 – 2010, immediately leading the school to success with a 27-win season and a CBI championship. The following year Smart grabbed the country by the balls and refused to let go: VCU, an 11 seed forced to compete in the all-important (read: dumb) opening round play-in game of the 2011 tournament, made one of the greatest Cinderella runs in NCAA history, streaking all the way to the Final Four where they lost to fellow Cinderella Butler. Though VCU hasn’t made it past the Second Round since, Smart’s teams proceeded to win 29, 27, 26, and 26 games over the next four years and haven’t missed a tourney since their Final Four appearance. Smart’s run put the school on the recruiting map and earned him national attention ultimately leading to his hire at the University of Texas. Shaka’s teams have a reputation of playing lock down defense, a system he deems “havoc”. Watching the Rams play this style under Smart was truly a unique experience; his teams always played with a discipline clearly learned through great coaching and strong player-coach relationships. It’ll be fun to see how Smart, now 38, does on a bigger stage with an infinitely better recruiting pool while competing in arguably the best basketball conference in the country.

9. Steve Fisher (San Diego State)
Average Starting Rank: 41st
Average Finishing Rank: 30th
Performance Variance: 26%
Tournament Appearances: 5
Tournament Performance: 1 First Round, 2 Second Rounds, 2 Sweet Sixteens
Recruiting: D
Recruits: D
Total Score: 19

It’s sad nobody ever talks about Steve Fisher (at least not since 1997). Fisher was once the coach of one of the most famous teams in college basketball lore – the Michigan Wolverines’ Fab Five. During his 1989 – 1997 run with Michigan, Fisher led the Wolverines to seven NCAA Tournaments including one Championship (he is credited with the ’89 ship though he took over as the interim coach and only coached the team during the Tourney), two Finals appearances, and an Elite Eight. After a yearlong stint as an assistant with the Sacramento Kings, Fisher took over at San Diego State, a program that since it began competing at the D1 level in 1970 made the NCAA Tournament only thrice. Fisher began coaching SDSU in 1999 – 2000; he has led the Aztecs to eight NCAA Tourneys in 16 seasons including six consecutive appearances since 2010. Fisher has led the Aztecs to two Sweet Sixteens over the past five seasons (SDSU’s only two Sweet Sixteens in program history) and has consistently exceeded ranking expectations year-over-year. At age 70, it’s likely Fisher finishes his career at the helm of the SDSU basketball program, and why shouldn’t he? The coach has won 346 games at SDSU (64.4% win %) and the court at Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl bares his moniker.  

8. Mark Few (Gonzaga)
Average Starting Rank: 22nd
Average Finishing Rank: 18th
Performance Variance: 19%
Tournament Appearances: 5
Tournament Performance: 4 Second Rounds, 1 Elite Eight
Recruiting: D-
Recruits: D-
Total Score: 19

Here’s a “Few” staggering stats about Mark Few and Gonzaga: 1) Gonzaga made one tournament in its history before Few took over, 2) Since the Few promotion, the Zags have made an incredible 17 NCAA tournaments in a row (Few has never missed a Dance), 3) Few’s record in 17 seasons (plus 14 games this year) is 449-106 – he’s won over 80% of his games. Really the only thing missing from Few’s resume is a Final Four, an accomplishment the Zags have been on the cusp of for the last 5 years or so.

7. John Beilein (Michigan)
Average Starting Rank: 37th
Average Finishing Rank: 28th
Performance Variance: 25%
Tournament Appearances: 4
Tournament Performance: 1 First Round, 1 Second Round, 1 Elite Eight, 1 Finals
Recruiting: C-
Recruits: C-
Total Score: 20

Beilein’s top ten ranking on this list reflects his excellent performance percentage variance (PPV) (11th best out of the 50 coaches we looked at) and postseason success. Back-to-back deep Tourney runs in 2013 and 2014 with two excellent Wolverine teams vault Beilein to this spot. Though Michigan is a fairly prestigious basketball institution, Beilein has not had necessarily great recruits the last 5 years making his coaching success that more impressive. The Big Ten has been a blood bath the last few years and Beilein’s had the Wolverines near the top almost every year (we’ll give him a pass for last year since his best player missed the whole season with injury). Beilein is often overlooked when we talk about the great coaches in college basketball, through this ranking he finally gets credit where credit is due. 

6. Gregg Marshall (Wichita State)
Average Starting Rank: 41st
Average Finishing Rank: 14th
Performance Variance: 66%
Tournament Appearances: 4
Tournament Performance: 1 First Round, 1 Second Round, 1 Sweet Sixteen, 1 Final Four
Recruiting: F
Recruits: F
Total Score: 20

Gregg Marshall is awesome and I wish the ridiculous rumor of him taking Haith’s job at Mizzou two years ago were true. Forget Wichita State for a second, let’s look at Marshall’s career prior to the Shockers; let’s look at Winthrop. Marshall coached little-known Winthrop for nine seasons from 1999 – 2007. During that time the Eagles made seven NCAA tournaments and amassed a record of 194-83 (70%). That’s a mini-dynasty in the Big South conference; Winthrop has made two NCAA tournaments since Marshall’s departure. Ok now the Shockers – Marshall has coached Wichita State for eight seasons, during that time the Shock have gone 204-76 (73%), 122-21 (!) since 2012, and have made four straight NCAA Tournaments. Oh yeah – they also made the Final Four as a nine seed in 2013. In addition to this, Marshall’s performance percentage variance (remember that’s preseason rank vs. end of season finish) is off the charts. He clocked in at a 66% PPV – the next closest coach was at 37%. Marshall is one of the very best coaches in college ball and should land a top 10 job (Duke? Indiana? UNC? Wisconsin?) within the next 5 years or so.

5. John Calipari (Kentucky)
Average Starting Rank: 5th
Average Finishing Rank: 17th
Performance Variance: -240%
Tournament Appearances: 4
Tournament Performance: 2 Final Fours, 1 Finals, 1 Championship
Recruiting: A+
Recruits: A+
Total Score: 22

Calipari is number five. I don’t like Calipari – see rant in the Enticing Eight article I wrote a few months back. Is he a great coach? I don’t know. What I do know is this: he won 73% of his games at UMass in eight seasons and made a Final Four; he won 76% of his games at Memphis in nine seasons and made a National Championship; so far he’s won 83% of his games in seven seasons at Kentucky and has made four Final Fours and won a championship. What I also know is this: his Final Four at UMass was vacated after the Marcus Camby allegations; his National Championship runner-up finish and 38-1 record at Memphis in 2008 was vacated due to academic fraud; at Kentucky his recruiting classes have ranked as follows the last 7 years: 2009: 1st; 2010: 1st; 2011: 1st; 2012: 2nd; 2013: 1st; 2014: 2nd; 2015: 2nd. He missed a tournament in 2013 and finished ranked #67 per KenPom after starting the season #1. He is obviously a great recruiter (or at least found a niche/system that works). Is he a great coach? I don’t know.

4. Bill Self (Kansas)
Average Starting Rank: 7th
Average Finishing Rank: 8th
Performance Variance: -8%
Tournament Appearances: 5
Tournament Performance: 2 Second Rounds, 1 Sweet Sixteen, 1 Elite Eight, 1 Finals
Recruiting: A
Recruits: A
Total Score: 22

As much as I despise Kansas, I respect Bill Self. It literally almost kills me that Mizzou didn’t hire him following the Norm Stewart era (Quin Snyder yay!). You could make a similar recruiting argument about Self’s Kansas tenure as Calipari’s Kentucky – but there are differences that set the two apart. Mainly this: Kansas hasn’t missed a tournament in the 12 seasons Self has manned the helm (in fact Illinois didn’t either in three years and Tulsa made 2/3 under Self), his average pre-season rank the last five seasons is 7th, his average finish is 8th, and his programs have never come under NCAA allegations (read: he’s not a scumbag). Really the most impressive thing Coach Self has done in his Kansas coaching career is lead the Jayhawks to 11 straight Big 12 regular season championships. That’s absurd – the Big 12 has been arguably the best (if not certainly top 3) and most competitive conference the past 11 seasons, yet Kansas has won every freaking year. Same time frame: Duke has won two ACC regular season championships, and Kentucky has won four SEC championships. Self deserves every bit of this #4 ranking.

3. Sean Miller (Arizona)
Average Starting Rank: 28th
Average Finishing Rank: 19th
Performance Variance: 33%
Tournament Appearances: 4
Tournament Performance: 1 Sweet Sixteen, 3 Elite Eights
Recruiting: B
Recruits: B
Total Score: 23

This is a fun surprise. At 47 years of age Miller is one of the rising stars of the college basketball coaching scene. After a fine five seasons at Xavier where he made four NCAA Tournaments that included a Sweet Sixteen and an Elite Eight run, Miller took over for failed one-offs Russ Pennell and Kevin O’Neill after legendary Lute Olson retired at Arizona. After a rough first season, Miller has led the Cats to five Tournaments in the past six years, including one Sweet Sixteen and three Elite Eights. Miller hasn’t lost in the first two rounds of the Tourney as the Arizona head coach. Miller’s #3 ranking reflects his superior postseason performance and PPV (#5 among the 50 coaches). I’m excited to see how Miller continues to build the Arizona program; a Final Four berth is not too far off in the future.

2. Bo Ryan (Wisconsin)
Average Starting Rank: 13th
Average Finishing Rank: 7th
Performance Variance: 42%
Tournament Appearances: 5
Tournament Performance: 1 First Round, 2 Sweet Sixteens, 1 Final Four, 1 Finals
Recruiting: F
Recruits: F
Total Score: 28

It’s sad to see the legendary Bo Ryan retiring this season after such an inspiring run at Wisconsin. Since my colleague Jim Root (Second Chance Points) covered Bo in depth in his “Ode to Bo” piece, I’ll just hit the highlights that make Bo so great. In his 14 seasons at Wisconsin, Bo amassed a record of 364-130 (73.7%), made the NCAA Tournament every single year, and NEVER finished below 4th place in the Big Ten conference. This last stat is the coolest Bo stat. Like the Big 12, the Big Ten has been arguably a top three conference over the past 14 years, asserting that kind of dominance in such a tough league is truly greatness. One more cool thing: notice Bo’s “recruiting” and “recruits” grades above; they are “F” and “F”. Wisconsin never had a top 30 recruiting class in the 2007 – 2014 period we looked at for this analysis. Coach Ryan is an expert at finding players that fit his system (diamonds in the rough), and developing them into great college basketball players (Exhibit A: Frank Kaminsky – 3-star recruit). Though Bo never won a National Championship, he did make two Final Fours and left a lasting impression on the Wisconsin Badger basketball program (they made 6 NCAA Tournaments since the Tourney was created in 1939 before Bo).

pitino.jpg

1. Rick Pitino (Louisville)
Average Starting Rank: 13th
Average Finishing Rank: 9th
Performance Variance: 32%
Tournament Appearances: 5
Tournament Performance: 1 First Round, 1 Sweet Sixteen, 1 Elite Eight, 1 Final Four, 1 Championship
Recruiting: B
Recruits: B
Total Score: 29

Ladies and gentleman, I give you the #1 coach in our rankings: Rick Pitino. Pitino’s greatness is undeniable. He has succeeded at all of his collegiate coaching stops over his many years. At Providence in 1986 he took the 6-seed Friars to the Final Four. At Kentucky from 1989 – 1997, he took the Wildcats to two Elite Eights and two National Championships, winning one in 1997. At Louisville, Pitino has led the Cardinals to three Elite Eights, two Final Fours, and won a Championship in 2013. Looking at the more technical aspects of this analysis, at 32% Pitino has the 6th best PPV in this study, he has made all five tournaments in the past five years, and he has succeeded in the postseason (besides that one time in 2011). Pitino is sort of like Izzo in the sense that you know Louisville is going to be ridiculously good in the postseason no matter their seed – a reflection of good coaching. Over the last five years the Cardinals have earned four 4 seeds and one 1 seed; yet have made it past the Sweet Sixteen thrice. Pitino’s Ville teams have been unstoppable the last five years: they finished ranked #1 per Pom in both 2013 and 2014, and have won over 30 games three of the five seasons. Pitino’s recruits over the past five years were tied for 7th best in this analysis. Pitino is one of the toughest coaches around, may or may not be in the mafia, and gets the most from his players every game. He is the best coach in the land. HOT TAKE!