-Ky McKeon
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(1) Baylor vs. (5) Villanova
Initial Thoughts: Baylor makes its 5th appearance in the Sweet Sixteen under Scott Drew, an expected outcome for the 1-seed in the South and 2nd best team in the country. The Bears have yet to be challenged in the 2021 NCAA Tournament, knocking off Hartford by 24 and Wisconsin by 16. On Saturday they get a Villanova team who is vastly under-seeded by analytical rankings.
Nova has had an “easy” route for a 5-seed, if you want to call it that. Winthrop was a sexy pick to beat the Cats in Round 1 and hung with them in the first half before ultimately succumbing to the better squad. North Texas was never competitive, as Nova exerted its dominance over the Mean Green from start to finish.
This will be by far the toughest test Villanova has faced without its starting point guard, Collin Gillespie. Thus far the Cats are 2-2 on the season after Gillespie went down with a season-ending knee injury.
Baylor on Offense: KenPom ranks Baylor’s offense as the 3rd best in the country, and when looking at the roster it’s not hard to see why. Scott Drew has at his disposal an embarrassing number of offensive weapons. Jared Butler, a 1st Team AP All-American, Davion Mitchell, a 3rd Team AP All-American, and MaCio Teague, an HM AP All-American, are the known entities, but guys like Adam Flager and Matthew Mayer can also create their own shots and rack up points.
Mayer in particular was impressive against Wisconsin, pouring in 17 points in 24 minutes off the pine. When your 4th or 5th scoring option can do this…
… your team is in pretty good shape.
Baylor’s floor spacing is going to cause problems for a Villanova team not known for defense. Per KenPom, Villanova ranks just 71st national in adjusted defensive efficiency and a primary reason for that is its inability to stop outside shooters. Nova ranks 294th in 3PA rate allowed and 237th in 3P% defense. Baylor on the other hand leads the country in 3P% and ranks 45th in percentage of points derived from behind the arc.
Villanova’s interior defense should also be exposed in this game. Baylor has a ton more size and muscle up front than Nova, led by Mark Vital, Flo Thamba, and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. The offensive glass should be a bountiful source of second-chance opportunities for the Bears, who rank 6th in the country in OR%. Nova isn’t a bad defensive rebounding team, but it isn’t elite either. North Texas grabbed 31% of its misses against the Cats, well above the Mean Green’s season average.
I don’t see Villanova stopping Baylor at all on this end of the floor.
Villanova on Offense: Villanova’s offense has been pretty good without Gillespie, especially the past three games. The Cats have scored at a high rate and have kept turnovers to a minimum:
But Baylor will be the best defensive team the Cats have faced since losing Gillespie. That spotless offensive turnover rate will be put to the test against a Bears squad that ranks 3rd nationally in defensive turnover rate.
Baylor’s key objective on this end of the floor will be to stop Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Nova’ AP HM All-American forward who has been destroying teams the past three games, averaging 22.0 PPG. JRE hasn’t faced a player who can actually defend him since Gillespie went down, but Baylor has the stallions to keep up with the star forward.
Mark Vital, for example, has the footspeed, athleticism, and strength to chase JRE on the perimeter and keep him off the block and away from the boards. Though he stands just 6’5”, Vital has 20 pounds on JRE and is every bit as quick and athletic. The question becomes, what does Baylor do when JRE plays the 5? Thamba and Tchamwa Tchatchoua can defend JRE in the post, but JRE will have an advantage on the arc if he’s defended by either big man. Mayer could be a defensive option, but he’s not an elite defender by any stretch.
Like Baylor, Nova spaces the floor – perhaps better than any team in the nation. Shooters are everywhere for Jay Wright, and that makes the Cats extremely hard to guard. The Bears are excellent guarding spot-ups, helped by their perimeter length and athleticism, but they really aren’t terrific at disallowing 3-point chances. Nova also uses a heavy dose of pick-n-roll action, which Baylor is elite at defending.
Nova will still put up points on the Bears, but Baylor is better equipped to handle the Cats on this end than the Cats are on the other side.
Key Factor(s): How will Nova respond to its biggest challenge yet without Gillespie? This Baylor team is rock solid at every position, and it will not hesitate to pressure and try to bully the younger Wildcats. Jay Wright is a fantastic coach and will certainly have a good game plan, but Scott Drew has done a great job of his own in Waco, especially the past few seasons.
Pace should also play a factor. Nova wants to keep this game in the halfcourt whereas the Bears are more so looking to run. The more possessions this game plays, the better chance Baylor has to eek out a cover.
Final Prediction: I think Baylor wins by double-digits. The Bears are equipped to handle whatever Villanova can throw at them on the defensive end. Offensively, Baylor should have no issue finding avenues to scoring, whether that be shooting, rebounding, or in transition. Baylor is simply too much for Nova to handle without its floor leader.
Pick: Baylor -7
(3) Arkansas vs. (15) Oral Roberts
Initial Thoughts:
Oral Roberts is the Cinderella of the 2021 NCAA Tournament, achieving only what one other 15-seed, the Dunk City FGCU Eagles, have achieved before. The Golden Eagles knocked off Ohio State and Florida in thrilling fashion behind their two studs, Kevin Obanor and Max Abmas. Now ORU looks to make history as the lowest seed ever to reach the Elite Eight.
Standing in ORU’s way is Arkansas, a team that is 13-1 over its last 14 games. Arkansas is on a roll right now, but it did get down by double-digits against both Colgate and Texas Tech in the NCAA Tournament.
These two teams have met before. In December, Arkansas beat Oral Roberts by 9 points at home, but the Golden Eagles held a 10-point halt-time lead…
Arkansas on Offense: Arkansas hasn’t been outstanding this tournament on the offensive end of the floor. The Razorbacks scored 1.09 PPP against Colgate and 1.00 PPP against Texas Tech, though admittedly not many teams can do better than that against the Red Raiders. Oral Roberts will be the weakest defensive team Arkansas has met since… well, since it played Oral Roberts back on December 20th.
Just like in the NCAA Tournament, Arkansas was ice cold from 3 against ORU back in December. The Hogs went just 4/24 from deep and are just 9/33 from the outside in two Tourney games thus far. ORU has a puncher’s chance if it can prevent Arkansas from catching fire once again. It’s also worth noting the Golden Eagles’ defense is MUCH improved since that December meeting.
Oral Roberts ranks 239th overall in defense, per Bart Torvik, but since February 27th, the start of ORU’s 7-game win streak, the Golden Eagles rank 98th. It’s a more engaged, scrappier team than the Hogs saw earlier this year.
Arkansas wants to play in transition, particularly off the glass where it truly thrives running the floor.
Eric Musselman plays four or five guards on the floor at nearly all times, making the Hogs extremely dynamic and versatile at every position. When Justin Smith plays the 5, this offense can sing, and despite his stature he can absolutely crush the Eagles inside.
In Game 1 between these two squads Smith had 22 points and 17 rebounds, 10 of which were offensive rebounds. The defensive glass has been a major issue all year for ORU, and that showed especially playing Arkansas when it allowed the Hogs to grab 49% of their misses. Even in the Big Dance Oral Bob has struggled to keep opponents off the boards, allowing a 39.3% OR% to Florida and 35.1% OR% to Ohio State. It’s a weakness that simply will be exploited on Saturday.
ORU does stop transition fairly well, ranking in the 74th percentile on a PPP basis per Synergy, and excellent ball handling prevents a ton of easy open floor chances off turnovers. The question will be if ORU can handle the athleticism of the Razorbacks. The Eagles held their own in December and have done so against superior athletic squads like Florida and Ohio State thus far, allowing just 1.08 PPP and 0.92 PPP to those two squads, respectively.
Oral Roberts on Offense: Oral Bob is just electric right now. The Golden Eagles have the hearts of every college basketball fan in the nation and haven’t lost a game in the month of March.
ORU is a pick-n-roll offense centered around stud guard Max Abmas, the nation’s leading scorer who is currently averaging 27.5 PPG in the Big Dance. Abmas can get his own shot whenever he wants down the floor, and even a team with the athletes of Arkansas will have a hard time stopping him.
The Hogs did contain Abmas pretty well in their first meeting, allowing the stud guard to score just 11 points on 4/11 shooting, but ORU’s other players stepped up in his stead. This leads to the larger point, that ORU isn’t ALL Max Abmas.
Oral Roberts is an excellent shooting team, ranking 14th nationally in 3P%. The Eagles attempt the 18th highest rate of 3P in the country and rank 9th in percentage of points scored from behind the arc. Abmas himself is a 43.1% 3-point shooter, but fellow guard Kareem Thompson shoots 40.7% as well. Then there’s Kevin Obanor…
Obanor is the stud nobody is talking about, the Robin to Abmas’s Batman. The 6’8” forward is shooting a ridiculous 46% from 3 on the season and is averaging 29.0 PPG in the Tourney thus far. Against Arkansas earlier this year, Obanor ate the Hogs’ lunch, scoring 21 points and racking up 10 rebounds. Even a versatile defender like Justin Smith couldn’t keep Obanor from exerting his will. Paul Mills, ORU’s coach is also excellent at realizing when Obanor has a mismatch in the post – like Lon Kruger at OU, Mills will look to exploit mismatches all day, as he did with Obanor on the block in his team’s first meetin against the Razorbacks:
Theoretically, Arkansas should have the versatility and athleticism to handle a player like Obanor who can play inside and out, but he’s proven once already he can score on this Razorback team.
Like Arkansas, Oral Roberts is going to try to run in transition, and Arkansas has actually allowed a ton of that this season. Per Hoop-Math the Razorbacks are 339th in preventing FGA in transition. This game should be up and down and in store for plenty of possessions and points.
Key Factor(s): The Golden Eagles play up to their competition. Including the NCAA Tournament, ORU is now 6-1 ATS against high-major opponents – it will not back down to “superior” competition.
Will Arkansas be able to answer one of the best scoring duos in the Big Dance? Can Oral Roberts keep Arkansas from getting clean looks from deep?
If Arkansas finds its outside shot, this one will be done in a hurry. ORU cannot keep Arkansas off the glass and likely cannot really stop them off the bounce.
Final Prediction: I’m buying into this Oral Bob team. The Golden Eagles have already seen Arkansas once this season and are now better equipped to handle it and far more confident. It would not surprise me to see ORU take a double-digit lead in the first half like it did in Game 1 and like two teams have done to the Razorbacks thus far in the Tourney. Hopefully that will be enough for Oral Roberts ticket holders.
Pick: Oral Roberts +11