- Ky McKeon
Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Keyontae Johnson, Jr., Florida
Coach of the Year: John Calipari, Kentucky
Newcomer of the Year: BJ Boston, Fr., Kentucky
Freshman of the Year: BJ Boston, Fr., Kentucky
Tier 1
1. Kentucky
See full preview here: #6 in our Top 40 countdown
2. Tennessee
See full preview here: #9 in our Top 40 countdown
Tier 2
3. LSU
See full preview here: #26 in our Top 40 countdown
4. Alabama
See full preview here: #21 in our Top 40 countdown
5. Florida
See full preview here: #23 in our Top 40 countdown
6. Arkansas
See full preview here: #35 in our Top 40 countdown
7. Auburn
See full preview here: #37 in our Top 40 countdown
8. Mississippi
See full preview here: #40 in our Top 40 countdown
Tier 3
9. South Carolina
Key Returners: Jermaine Couisnard, AJ Lawson, Keyshawn Bryant, Justin Minaya, Alanzo Frink, Trae Hannibal, TJ Moss, Jalyn McCreary, Wildens Leveque
Key Losses: Maik Kotsar, Jair Bolden
Key Newcomers: Seventh Woods (North Carolina), Ja’Von Benson, Patrick Iriel
Lineup:
Outlook: The 2019-20 season was the second straight in which Frank Martin’s Gamecocks punched above their weight class in conference play. South Carolina finished 10-8 in the SEC (tied 6th) despite ranking 9th in the league in KenPom and being picked 10th in the preseason poll. In 2018-19, USC finished 11-7 in conference play (tied 4th) despite being ranked 10th in the SEC in KenPom and being picked 11th in the preseason poll. Overall, the Gamecocks have been consistently solid under Martin but never truly great (Final Four run aside) – they play an extremely physical style that allows them to hang around in any game, but a general lack of offensive potency leaves them vulnerable to losing to lesser opponents. With only two key pieces departing this offseason, this year’s version of the Cocks should be Martin’s best squad since the 2017 Tourney team.
If South Carolina is to make the Big Dance this season, it needs to improve upon an offense that has consistently ranked outside of the national 100 under Martin.
Maik Kotsar’s departure will make that endeavor a difficult one – per Hoop Lens the Cocks scored just 0.94 PPP without Kotsar on the floor last season compared to 1.01 PPP when the big man was in the lineup. Kotsar was a steady presence in the post and the only Gamecock to earn a spot on an SEC All-Conference team. 6’11” sophomore Wildens Leveque and 6’7” junior Alanzo Frink will duke it out for the starting center spot – both will likely get cracks in the starting five throughout the season depending on matchups. Leveque’s size is a rarity on the USC roster so that alone makes him valuable. He started 8 games as a freshman and posted sky high rebounding rates and a strong block rate when he saw action. Frink mostly played the 4 last year, but he’s strong enough to man the 5 despite his height. A beast on the glass and protecting the rim, Frink can score on the block and help make up for Kotsar’s lost offensive production. 3-star Columbia native Patrick Iriel, a tough, physical big man who can run the floor and hit the occasional three, and 3-star forward Ja’Von Benson, a long shot blocker, should also be in the mix for frontcourt minutes.
As important as Kotsar was to USC’s offense last season, the post isn’t Carolina’s primary method of scoring. Martin’s teams like to beat their opponents down the floor and score in transition – the Cocks were the 9th fastest offense in the country in 2019-20. USC particularly runs off opponent scores and steals, looking to catch opposing teams off balance and avoid having to set up a halfcourt offense that’s been tepid at best under Martin. When in the halfcourt, USC runs a very smash-mouth style of play – the Cocks attack the rim, crash the boards, and largely ignore the three-point line. Shooting was a huge weakness last season; only three players attempted more than 75 3P and only one shot over 34% from deep.
Martin didn’t add any shooting this offseason so the Cocks will count on star guards Jermaine Couisnard and AJ Lawson improving in that department. Couisnard, an SEC All-Freshman team member last season, never looked back once he was finally injected into the starting lineup on January 15th. The 6’4” sophomore runs the point and can fill it up from everywhere. Efficiency will be his focus this year after not shooting the ball particularly well as a rookie – the Montverde alum gets to the line at a high rate but shot just 29% from deep in 2019-20. That of course didn’t preclude him from hitting some gigantic shots:
Lawson was included in our Top 100 players list heading into last year but admittedly did not live up to our lofty expectations. He improved upon his freshman year from an efficiency standpoint but didn’t quite take the leap to national star status we thought the could. Despite the slower growth curve, Lawson is still one of the best guards in the SEC and the leading candidate to lead the Cocks in scoring 2020-21. He and Couisnard could form one of the better backcourt tandems in the country this year.
The most intriguing addition to USC’s roster this season is UNC transfer Seventh Woods, a former top 50 recruit who flamed out with the Heels after posting insanely high turnover rates in limited minutes. Woods can handle the ball or provide shooting at the 2-guard spot and form a dynamic three-man backcourt in smaller lineups with Lawson and Couisnard. He has the pedigree to succeed in college basketball, he just needs to prove he actually can.
Woods will see playing time competition from sophomores Trae Hannibal and TJ Moss, two players looking to improve upon woeful o-ratings from inefficient rookie seasons. Hannibal played better near the end of the year and can run the point when needed; like most other USC guards, he has yet to prove he can shoot from the outside. Moss can play either guard spot but was prone to poor shot selection as a freshman. His size makes him an intriguing two-way prospect, but his 68.6 o-rating is one of the lowest I’ve seen on KenPom in my college basketball writing career.
Keyshawn Bryant’s return to the fold is enormous for both ends of the floor. After missing the first eight games with a knee injury, Bryant was a key contributor as a defensive stopper and athletic rim runner on the wing.
His athleticism and versatility are invaluable and allow him to play and guard multiple positions. Expect plenty of playing time for Bryant in his junior year.
6’6” junior Justin Minaya, another injury victim in 2019-20, is an efficient paint scorer and an all-around “glue guy” every team could use. He’ll compete for a starting spot at the 4 and look to get his 3P shooting back to his freshman year levels when he knocked down 35.8% of his 106 attempts. Sophomore forward Jalyn McCreary had a few impressive games as a freshman and could develop into a key role player in 2020-21 with his rebounding ability and versatility.
Martin is known for his defense, and the Cocks should once again be one of the fiercest teams in the league in 2020-21. Last season, USC led the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency, forcing turnovers and effectively contesting outside shots. Martin’s 2-3 matchup zone is prone to allowing a high number of 3PA, but teams shot just 28.3% from deep against the Cocks in conference play, a testament to their ability to close out on and bother shooters. USC’s physical style of play has become their hallmark under Martin, but that can also have its downsides – no team in the country allowed a higher FT rate than the Cocks last season. Ultimately, Martin’s physical style of play does more good than harm and forces teams to play isolation ball, hoist inefficient shots, and think twice before battling for a rebound. Martin’s teams have ranked in the national top 50 in defense five out of the past six years.
Bottom Line: South Carolina is going to improve this season, but I’m not sure how much higher it can go in conference play. While Martin has developed an impressive track record in the SEC the past five seasons, this year’s ceiling feels like its capped at around 5th or 6th. The SEC as a whole this season is very deep and competitive, and though USC’s physicality and defense will give it a fighting chance to win any ball game, its shooting and overall offense holds back its potential. I’m high on Couisnard turning into a star alongside Lawson, but I’m skeptical he can turn around all of South Carolina’s offensive inefficiencies.
10. Missouri
Key Returners: Xavier Pinson, Dru Smith, Mark Smith, Jeremiah Tilmon, Kobe Brown, Javon Pickett, Mitchell Smith, Torrence Watson
Key Losses: Reed Nikko, Tray Jackson
Key Newcomers: Drew Buggs (Hawaii), Ed Chang (JUCO), Jordan Wilmore
Lineup:
Outlook: Full disclosure: I am a Mizzou alum. When most fans talk or write about their schools, there seems to be a bias towards unrealistic positive expectations – rose-colored glasses if you will. When Mizzou fans talk or write about their school, there tends to be some pessimism baked in underneath. I will try to be as neutral as possible, but some “frustration” might show through. You’ve been warned.
The Tigers were projected to be the 38th best team in the country per KenPom last season but finish 13th in the SEC according to the preseason media poll. Neither one of those projections was ever realistic – Mizzou wasn’t a great team, but it also wasn’t a bad one. Ultimately, the Tigs settled in at 97th in KenPom and tied-10th in the SEC, adding yet another “meh” year to a once-great basketball program. Injuries certainly played a factor in Mizzou’s struggles, as big man Jeremiah Tilmon missed most of conference play and sharpshooter Mark Smith missed seven games in February, but both were also healthy for the Tigers’ horrifying defeat to Charleston Southern at home on December 3rd. Heading into 2020-21, there’s reason to be optimistic – Mizzou returns nearly everyone of importance – but there’s also reason to expect more of the same below-average play.
Shooting was the real detriment that derailed the Tigs in 2019-20, as every single player on the roster got worse from behind the arc:
Those three-point shooting numbers can either be chocked up to bad luck, or it may just happen to be that every player on the squad’s range caps out at the previous three-point line. As a Mizzou fan, I’m hoping it’s the former.
Cuonzo Martin has never been known for his teams’ offenses, he’s had just one top 50 offense and four top 100 offenses since 2012, which is why it’s both frustrating and baffling that he keeps rolling out the same style of play year-in and year-out. In particular, it’s mind-numbingly aggravating that Martin insists on playing in the half-court – his teams have never pushed the tempo nor ran in the open floor. Mizzou ranked 335th nationally in percentage of FGA in transition – that is absolutely bonkers when you consider the level of athletes, depth, and quickness the Tigers had at their disposal last season. Since Mizzou refused to run, it relied far too heavily on offensive rebounding and getting to the free throw line (where it shot an 11th best 78%) to score. Ramping up the tempo may have helped negate last year’s shooting woes.
With essentially the same roster as 2019-20, I am begging Martin to try to play a more uptempo offense; unfortunately there’s no reason to believe he’ll change his ways after 12 years of running the same stuff. Mizzou’s most dynamic player, Xavier Pinson, was born to run in the open floor – he has elite speed and an uncanny ability to knife through the lane and put points on the board.
Pinson was finally given consistent starts in February and took full advantage, averaging 17.3 PPG over Mizzou’s last 11 games. He was the 2nd highest used player in the SEC last year and is comfortable running the point or playing off the ball in a more spot-up shooter / wing slasher role. If Mizzou is to be truly successful this season, Martin needs to allow Pinson to ascend to alpha status on the squad and be the focal point of his attack, like he was at the end of last season.
With Pinson in the backcourt return guards Dru Smith and Mark Smith, two-thirds of the Smith, Smith & Smith law firm in Columbia. Dru Smith’s presence on the floor gives the Tigers a dual-PG look; he’s a very steady ball handler and does a bit of everything on both ends of the floor. Defensively, Smith has always been one of the best pilferers in the country; he ranked 3rd in the SEC in steal rate and in the top 40 nationally last season. Dru plays the most minutes on the team and should be looked at as a leader in his final collegiate season. Mark Smith maintained his high percentage outside shooting from 2018-19, though it wasn’t quite at the insane 45% clip he posted as a sophomore. Smith has become primarily a spot-up shooter in Martin’s offense despite his burly frame. Defensively, Smith’s size allows him to be effective guarding bigger wings on the perimeter, and he grabs a high rate of defensive boards from the guard spot. Together, the trio is capable of being one of the best SEC backcourts on any given night – consistency, however, must improve across the board for Mizzou to contend for an at-large bid.
Rounding out Cuonzo’s backcourt will be junior Torrence Watson and Hawaii grad transfer Drew Buggs. Watson had a tough sophomore season after posting promising numbers his rookie year. Like other Tigers, Watson’s 3P% severely dipped, which may have been partially due to a lack of confidence. Watson is clearly talented and came to Columbia as a 4-star recruit, but like his backcourt brethren, he’s yet to be truly consistent on the floor. Buggs was an Honorable Mention All-Big West selection last season and three-year starter for the Rainbow Warriors. A true table-setter, Buggs led the Big West in assist rate each of the last two years and should be a nice backup PG option for Martin behind Smith / Pinson. Though not a good outside shooter, Buggs has found success scoring off the bounce, but he has yet to prove he can play at the Power 6 level. In four games against “top tier” competition last season, Buggs averaged 3.8 PPG, 3.0 TOPG, and shot just 15.4% from the floor.
Mizzou’s primary frontcourt pieces will once again be senior Jeremiah Tilmon, sophomore Kobe Brown, and junior Javon Pickett. Tilmon, a.k.a. Fouly McGee, has had a hard time staying on the floor during his three-year career due to his propensity to rack up stupid fouls. Martin hasn’t helped this situation in years past, as he often likes to set high ball screens with Tilmon in space where the big man has a 99% success rate on setting an illegal screen. When Tilmon is good, he’s REALLY good – like All-SEC level good – he has tremendous footwork on the block, is a beast on the glass, and a good shot blocker. His lapses in judgment on the floor, however, particularly in the fouling department, have prevented him from realizing his true potential. Perhaps he can figure it out in his senior season.
Brown and Pickett are two “coach’s guys” – every coach in the country has a player he loves due to his work ethic, hustle, tenaciousness, or any other intangible not easily seen in a box score, and for Martin it’s Brown and Pickett. Brown, a 3-star recruit in the class of 2019, started nearly every game last season while top 100 4-star recruit Tray Jackson rode the pine. Jackson transferred this offseason and Brown posted an O-rating of 92.6 (that’s bad) while shooting 25.3% from behind the arc. Brown works hard and was certainly the better option defensively over Jackson, but when your team is starved for offense and has no shot of making the NCAA Tournament, why not try to develop your top 100 recruit? Hopefully Brown being thrown into the fire pays dividends in his sophomore year and helps him evolve into a more complete player.
Pickett scored 17 points against Illinois during Bragging Rights in December, a game I was lucky enough to cover. Hearing Illini coach Brad Underwood talk about Pickett in the post-game, you’d think he was talking about Michael Jordan. Underwood heaped an endless amount of praise on Pickett, a player who is the quintessential “hustle” or “glue” guy every team needs. It’s true Pickett does a lot of little things on the floor that are hard to quantify, but like Brown he was awful offensively last season. In two years, Pickett has posted O-ratings of 90.6 and 91.6 and put up a shooting slash (2P / 3P / FT) of .412 / .306 / .573. Pickett is valuable for his versatility and hustle but at this point is a known (negative) commodity on offense.
6’10” big man Mitchell Smith finally saw playing time last season after riding the pine his first few years in college. If Smith was a freshman last year, people everywhere would be hyping up how good he could be in 2020-21. Unfortunately, Smith was a redshirt junior and it’s hard to expect him developing into anything significantly more than he’s already shown. One area where he could be valuable, however, is from behind the arc. Smith really worked on his range last season, which didn’t translate to many games, but may have planted the seed to be a deadly weapon this year. If Smith can develop a more consistent long-ball, he could be a real asset in pick-n-pop situations. Elsewhere on the floor, Smith holds his own on the glass but doesn’t block nearly as many shots as you’d expect from a long 6’10” forward.
Sophomore Parker Braun and JUCO transfer Ed Chang will duke it out for primary backup minutes off the bench this season. Braun is highly athletic like his brother Christian at Kansas and was solid blocking shots and finishing inside in limited minutes last season. Chang began his career at San Diego State before transferring to Salt Lake CC, a very good JUCO, where he posted 8.0 PPG and 3.5 PPG last year. Chang’s real value lies in his outside shot – he knocked down 39.7% of his 126 3PA last season, something that should translate to the SEC. 7’3” freshman Jordan Wilmore is a 3-star center who chose Mizzou over such storied programs as Southern Utah and Jacksonville State. Wilmore is very raw offensively, but there’s no denying his ability to take up space and be an effective rebounder and shot deterrent in the paint.
Most of this preview has been slanted toward the offensive end of the floor, but we can’t talk Cuonzo Martin basketball without mentioning defense. Since 2012, Martin has had five top 50 defenses including three top 20 defenses, the last of which was back in 2017-18. Last season was his 3rd worst defensive ranking since becoming a Power 6 head coach, his Tigers forced turnovers and held opponents to a low FG% but fouled way too much. Mizzou ranked 346th in the country last year in FT rate allowed, often a consequence of playing the physical brand of basketball Martin loves. Cuonzo plays almost exclusively man-to-man and doesn’t press a ton (again, with this roster there’s reason to believe he should). I’m confident Mizzou will at least be decent on this end in 2020-21; Martin has a track record of having consistently good defensive squads. If the Tigers can crack the top 50 in defensive rating, they have a shot at competing in the middle of the conference.
Bottom Line: It’s not often you see a team bringing back eight players who started at least one game the year prior be projected to only mildly improve. As a Mizzou fan, I love Cuonzo Martin’s principles, approach to coaching / developing college athletes, and emphasis on defensive toughness, but I firmly disagree with the way he’s ran offense in his three seasons at the helm in Columbia. Mizzou should have a better offense in 2020-21, especially if last year’s general 3P performance was more a consequence of bad luck than backward development, but I’m not sure it’s enough to vault them higher than 10th in this year’s super tough SEC.
11. Georgia
Key Returners: Sahvir Wheeler, Toumani Camara, Tye Fagan, Christian Brown
Key Losses: Anthony Edwards, Rayshaun Hammonds, Donnell Gresham, Tyree Crump, Jordan Harris
Key Newcomers: PJ Horne (Virginia Tech), Justin Kier (George Mason), Andrew Garcia (Stony Brook), Tyron McMillian (JUCO), Jonathan Ned (JUCO), KD Johnson, Josh Taylor, Mikal Starks (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Tom Crean enters year 3 of his third head coaching gig looking to continue his rebuild of the Georgia basketball program. Years 3 and 4 have been fortuitous for Crean at his prior stops, leading Marquette back to the NCAA Tournament and Indiana to the top of the Big Ten. Last season was a step in the right direction, as UGA welcomed a star-studded recruiting class and pulled off impressive victories at Memphis and against Auburn, among others. Georgia didn’t suffer any egregious losses in 2019-20 but couldn’t win consistently enough to sniff an at-large bid or a finish in the middle of the SEC. Lots of talent walks out the door from last year, but Crean has a promising young core and a bevy of high-upside transfers with which to push for another step up the conference standings in 2020-21.
Projected top five NBA Draft pick Anthony Edwards is obviously the biggest loss from last year’s squad, the SEC’s Freshman of the Year and a 2nd Team All-Conference member. Edwards was the fulcrum of UGA’s transition-based offense, an offense that often relied on the Ant-Man to score in isolation. Edwards’ talent was undeniable but he was prone to taking bad shots, and UGA’s over-reliance on his production may have actually caused more harm than good to the overall team. Per Hoop Lens, Georgia was better offensively when Edwards sat – the 2PFG% drop when the star was on the floor is especially noticeable:
Now, I’m not saying UGA will be consistently better offensively without one of the best players in the country, but it might be more balanced which can often lead to better offensive efficiency, especially in the college basketball landscape.
Crean likely maintains his uptempo approach this season with several guards at his disposal who excel at running in the open floor. Whether pushing in transition or in the halfcourt, the Bulldogs like to attack the rim and get to the foul line. Per Synergy, UGA ranked 8th in percentage of plays ending in transition and had one of the best shot qualities in the country per Dribble Handoff thanks to its rim-focus attack. Returning point guard Sahvir Wheeler was one of the best dribble drivers in the conference last year, ranking third on the team in percentage of shots taken near the rim despite standing just 5’10”. Wheeler flashed an impressive assist rate last year but his 27.6% turnover rate was an eyesore and will be one of the main points of improvement for the sophomore guard in 2020-21. Wheeler’s offensive load may increase a bit without Edwards, but he’s great in a table-setting role and is probably better off functioning as a “true” point guard versus a “score first” lead guard.
George Mason graduate transfer Justin Kier is in prime position to assume the go-to scoring role assuming he’s finally healthy after a year dealing with nagging injuries. Kier was an All-Atlantic 10 selection two seasons ago and has proven to be an excellent offensive player during his college career. Kier’s ability to shoot the three and score from anywhere will take pressure off Wheeler, and his passing ability from the wing could open up a lot for Crean’s motion offense. Junior guard Tye Fagan will compete with Kier for a starting gig – Fagan, like Wheeler, is a basket attacker who shot a whopping 57% of his total FGA at the rim last year, per Hoop-Math.
Former top 75 recruit Christian Brown will look to explode this season in a bigger role. Brown is a versatile wing who can man the 3 or 4, shoot from the outside, and fly above the rim. The Oak Hill product was relegated to a reserve role off the pine in his freshman season, but he should be ready to be one of the Dogs’ top contributors in 2020-21. Stony Brook transfer Andrew Garcia, one of the Seawolves’ many transfers this offseason, will also be a mainstay in the wing / PF rotation this season after earning 2nd Team All-America East honors as a junior. Garcia has a keen nose for the ball on both ends of the floor – offensively, he’s a fantastic glass cleaner and defensively, he racks up steals. Like Brown, Garcia can shoot the three a bit but is better attacking the bucket and getting to the charity stripe.
Interior duties will be handled by Brussels-born big man Toumani Camara, a former 4-star recruit who impacts the game with his offensive rebounding and soft touch inside. While Camara may have the ability to shoot from the outside, he hit just 5/29 of his 3PA during his freshman season. Lining up next to Camara will be Virginia Tech transfer PJ Horne, a 6’5” forward who was essentially forced into playing the 5 for a severely undersized Hokies squad in Mike Young’s 5-out offense. Horne is a good two-way player who really developed his outside shot last season – he shot a solid 34.9% from deep on 129 attempts after shooting just 14 total threes in his first two years at VT.
Crean’s remaining newcomers come by way of the JUCO and HS markets. Top 50 JUCO transfers Tyron McMillian (#21) and Jonathan Ned (#49) each will look to carve out a spot in the rotation in their inaugural seasons in Athens. McMillian grew a couple inches since HS and has developed into a fairly skilled PF offensively and shot blocking threat on the defensive end of the floor. Ned is a long athletic wing who will bolster an already deep UGA wing corps. Ned’s JUCO teammate, point guard Mikal Starks, likely won’t see much action this season.
The primary reason Starks won’t see the floor much is because KD Johnson, a top 100 4-star PG, is coming to town, and he looks ready to contribute at the SEC level. Johnson is very strong for his age and height, a bowling ball-esque lead guard who possesses high athleticism, quickness, and jumping ability. One word to summarize Johnson’s game is “tenacious” – he works hard and attacks the defense with a fervor. Fellow freshman Josh Taylor, a borderline 4-star top 130 PF, had a lot of eyes on him back in 8th and 9th grade but has since fallen down the rankings slightly. Taylor is very long, can score on the block, and can provide rim protection to a team sorely in need.
Rim protection was the main issue in a sea of defensive problems for the Dawgs last season. UGA was the worst defensive team in the SEC, allowing teams to shoot 65.8% on FGA near the rim per Hoop-Math (that is very bad). Nothing about Crean’s current roster suggests a major improvement defensively, but the Bulldogs should at least be mildly better on this end in 2020-21.
Bottom Line: Despite the loss of Edwards and Rayshaun Hammonds, among others, Georgia has a real shot to be better than last season. Horne is a nice replacement for Hammonds and Kier at least gives something back offensively to cope with the massive Edwards loss. Crean’s offense should be more balanced and pass-reliant than in 2019-20 and the addition of guys like McMillian, Garcia, and Taylor could help improve upon a terrible defense.
12. Texas A&M
Key Returners: Savion Flagg, Quenton Jackson, Emanuel Miller, Andre Gordon, Jay Jay Chandler, Jonathan Aku
Key Losses: Josh Nebo, Wendell Mitchell, Mark French
Key Newcomers: Kevin Marfo (Quinnipiac), Jaxson Robinson, Hassan Diarra, Hayden Hefner, LaDamien Bradford, Cashius McNeilly (Redshirt)
Lineup:
Outlook: Wherever Buzz Williams coaches success tends to follow. After leading the Marquette Golden Eagles to five NCAA Tournaments and five top 30 KenPom finishes in six years, Williams set his sights on rebuilding the Virginia Tech program, which he did in admirable fashion. Buzz’s shift to College Station caught many by surprise as his Hokie squad was set to compete near the top of the ACC once again, and he appeared to have VT stabilized as a yearly Big Dance threat. Last year’s A&M squad exceeded expectations from a conference win/loss standpoint, finishing 10-8 and T-6th after being picked 12th in the preseason. However, the Aggies finished just 131st in KenPom (second worst among SEC squads), a far cry from their 57th preseason ranking. Williams clearly had the Aggies playing much better basketball in February and March, but early season losses to Fairfield, Harvard, and Temple on neutral floors negatively impacted their overall performance.
Looking ahead to 2020-21, Texas A&M looks primed to repeat its performance as middle-tier SEC disruptor, but a couple weaknesses from last season need to be addressed. Point guard play was a real issue for the Aggies following the departure of Weave punching bag TJ Starks – Williams was even forced to play 5’8” former walk-on Mark French significant minutes. That lack of PG competence contributed to the Aggies turning the ball over at the highest rate in the SEC.
Second, TAMU’s offense was atrocious last season due to 1) the PG issue stated above and 2) lack of shooting and/or a go-to scorer. Williams has played one of the slower tempos in the country the past two seasons (perhaps a consequence of lack of depth as much as anything), but the Aggie attack stalled far too often without a clear leader and/or go-to scorer on the floor. TAMU ranked 203rd nationally in offense per KenPom – shot selection was solid, as the Aggies prioritized shooting the long-ball, but hardly any of those shots went in. Nobody returning to the fold this season notched an O-rating over 99.0 and only Savion Flagg shot over 32% from outside the arc.
6’2” sophomore Andre Gordon appears to be line for the starting PG role this season following an inconsistent freshman year. Gordon struggled in pretty much every aspect but perhaps being thrown into the fire early will quicken his development in year two. Jay Jay Chandler could also see time on the ball, though his more natural position is the 2. Chandler shot poorly and turned the ball over far too often last year, but he’s very athletic and one of the better defensive disruptors on the roster. The long-term solution at the point could be top 75 4-star recruit Hassan Diarra, a strong, smooth guard who plays in control and gets to the basket at will. If Gordon struggles early look for Diarra to get a crack at starting duties.
The aforementioned Flagg is probably the one guy you’d point to if you had to choose a “go-to” scorer on this roster, but he’s never been anything more than a solid contributor. Flagg’s shooting ability is invaluable to a squad lacking shooters, and his team-leading assist rate last season showed his ability to facilitate effectively from the wing. Flagg isn’t the creator Wendell Mitchell was last season – over 82% of his made 3PFG were assisted per Hoop-Math. Though he’s talented, TAMU’s offense may continue to struggle if he’s the primary option.
Quenton Jackson, the likely starting 2-guard, isn’t really a scorer or creator, but he is a defensive menace who led the SEC in steal rate a season ago.
Jackson is a slasher on offense and dangerous in the rare occurrences Texas A&M looks to get out in transition.
Scoring may need to come from freshmen Jaxson Robinson, a top 75 4-star wing, and Cashius McNeilly, a 4-star recruit from the class of 2019. Robinson is skilled with the ball, can shoot from distance, and received a lot more attention later than most top 100 recruits implying his ceiling could be high. McNeilly redshirted with a foot injury last season; he’s a long, athletic combo guard who can score from all three levels. With the dearth of scoring on the roster, McNeilly will likely be a factor in the rotation all season long. 3-star freshmen Hayden Hefner, a cash money shooter, and LaDamien Bradford, a versatile scorer, are a year or two away from consistent contribution.
When Josh Nebo graduated this offseason Texas A&M lost its leading scorer, second-leading rebounder, and best shot blocker. Nebo was the centerpiece of Williams’ pack-line-esque defense, a stout rim protector in the middle of the floor. To replace Nebo, Williams turned to the transfer market and landed a big fish in Kevin Marfo, formerly of Quinnipiac and George Washington. Marfo led the country in rebounding last season and ranked 2nd in FT rate – he is a workhorse in the paint, grabbing rebounds and dunking everything he gets his hands on. That skillset should translate to the SEC where Marfo will provide some of the shot blocking Nebo did and even more glass cleaning.
Sophomore forward Emanuel Miller, another glass cleaner in Buzz’s service, ranked in the top 8 in the SEC in both OR% and DR% as a freshman. He’ll need to improve his finishing in year two, but he has loads of potential. Jonathan Aku, a 6’10” sophomore, should see more time sans Nebo and provide the Aggies with more rebounding and shot blocking off the bench.
Texas A&M’s defense was very good last season, as evidenced by the Aggies somehow finishing 6th in the SEC despite an atrocious offense. Williams plays a very unique style of defense in that he packs it in (with occasional matchup zones thrown in) with the goal of goading the opposing offense into taking low percentage outside shots. The Aggies gave up an insane 3P rate last season – a whopping 50.3% of opponents’ shot attempts came from behind the arc. That stat would normally spell doom for a team, but the Aggies focus on taking away attempts from elite shooters while letting everyone else to bomb away. Occasionally, this type of defense burned TAMU, as the Aggies’ allowed assist rate of 63.9% implied opponents were getting plenty of spot-up chances outside the arc, a naturally higher percentage look. However, Buzz’s teams are so active defensively and shift and stunt so well that actually making those three-point shots becomes highly difficult. With a similar roster makeup and Buzz’s recent success with his fairly new defensive scheme, expect to see more of the same in 2020-21.
Bottom Line: Like South Carolina, the Aggies fared much better in the SEC last season than they should have from an advanced metric or power rating standpoint. Talent-wise, this is a bottom tier SEC team, but Buzz Williams’ presence on the sidelines significantly raises its ceiling. The Aggies likely miss the NCAA Tournament again in 2021, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them finish in the middle of the SEC once again.
13. Mississippi State
Key Returners: DJ Stewart, Iverson Molinar, Abdul Ado
Key Losses: Reggie Perry, Tyson Carter, Nick Weatherspoon, Robert Woodard
Key Newcomers: Jalen Johnson (Louisiana), Deivon Smith, Tolu Smith (Western Kentucky), Keondre Montgomery, Cameron Matthews, Andersson Garcia, Derek Fountain, Javian Davis (Alabama)***
*** Davis has not yet received a waiver to become immediately eligible as of this preview date. It is expected Davis will receive one.
Lineup:
Outlook: Before diving into the #HailState preview, let’s show a little appreciation for Ben Howland. Most think of Howland as the coach who got fired at UCLA because he played a “boring” style and allegedly couldn’t gel with high-level recruits. However, we should think of Howland as a coach who wins wherever he goes. In the 90s, Howland led Northern Arizona to back-to-back regular season Big Sky titles and an NCAA appearance – the Lumberjacks have been back to the Dance just once in the 21 years since Howland departed. At Pitt, Howland primed the Jamie Dixon years by leading the Panthers to two straight Sweet Sixteens following a 7-year Tournament hiatus. At UCLA, he led the Bruins to three straight Final Fours including a National Title appearance. And at Miss State, he brought the Bulldogs back to the Dance for the first time since 2009 and has built a consistent SEC top-half contender.
This season promises to be a challenge for Howland, as his four best players, including two (maybe 3) NBA Draft picks, depart from last year. Howland’s offenses have been nationally elite the past two seasons, ranking 13th and 19th, respectively, thanks to guys like Reggie Perry and the Weatherspoon brothers. Prior to the 2018-19 season, Howland hadn’t had a top 40 offense since his 2009 UCLA squad. Miss State scored by POUNDING the glass last season, ranking 4th in the country in OR%, and getting to the foul line (34th in FT rate). Unlike previous Howland Miss State teams, the Bulldogs didn’t shoot many threes but hit a decent percentage of the ones they did. No team in the country ended fewer possessions via spot-ups than Miss State in 2019-20; the Dogs relied on isolation, pick-n-roll, basket attack, and offensive rebounding to score buckets. This worked with a guy like Perry who was one of the best rebounders and all-around talents in the nation last year, and scorers like Tyson Carter, Nick Weatherspoon, and Robert Woodard. With those four gone, it’s very hard to believe Miss State can even be a top 50 offensive squad in 2020-21.
Defense has historically been Howland’s calling card – his squads are known for their physical, hard-nosed, half-court man style of play – but it’s interesting that Howland has had just one top 40 defense ever at Miss State and hasn’t cracked the top 30 since 2008. The Bulldogs like to speed up opposing teams but didn’t force nearly as many turnovers last year as a traditional Howland squad. The interior was secure with guys like Perry and Abdul Ado, but Miss State was repeatedly burned in transition, a likely consequence of all-out offensive glass crashing. With the offense in line for a decline, Miss State’s defense needs to drastically improve to keep the Bulldogs competitive in conference play.
Three partial starters / full-time starters return from last year’s squad. DJ Stewart and Iverson Molinar will occupy two of the three backcourt spots in their sophomore seasons in Starkvegas, while big man Abdul Ado will man the paint in his final year in maroon and white. Stewart started regularly in the latter half of the 2019-20 season; he’s a big wing with a ton of potential and a player Howland will count on to take a huge step forward in the offensive production/responsibility realm. Molinar is a combo guard who started for Weatherspoon when he missed the first eight games of the season. The 6’3” guard is a very good outside shooter whose role also promises to increase from his rookie year. Ado will continue being a monster on the glass (2nd in the SEC last year in OR%) and defensively in the paint (2nd highest block rate in SEC); he plays his role on offense, shooting 80.2% of his FGA near the rim last season per Hoop-Math. Ado’s ability to give the Bulldogs extra possessions and take up space in the interior makes him one of the more undervalued players in the SEC.
Louisiana transfer Jalen Johnson and top 60 4-star freshman Deivon Smith appear to have the open PF and PG starting spots locked down heading into the year. Johnson was UL’s best player last season; the former SLU Billiken is a scoring forward who shoots the three and gets to the foul line. His athleticism and penchant for scoring will help ease the pain of losing a generational talent in Perry. Smith is one of the best under-6’0” dunkers I’ve ever seen at the high school level:
With Carter and Weatherspoon gone, Smith will be cast into the flames in his rookie season and expected to man the point guard duties. The confidence he plays with on the floor and his sticky ball handling should allow him to succeed as a freshman and be a contender to land on the SEC All-Freshman squad.
Quality depth is going to be a huge issue for Howland this season, as it was in 2019-20 when his Bulldogs ranked 320th in bench minutes. Aside from the five aforementioned projected starters, I have little confidence in the ability of this roster. Tolu Smith, a Western Kentucky transfer, will be the primary backup for Ado; he’s a solid rebounder but couldn’t get consistent playing time with the Hilltoppers two seasons ago. Sophomore Quinten Post, a 7-foot behemoth out of Amsterdam, also should see some run after playing just 21 minutes as a freshman. Alabama transfer Javian Davis would be a big addition if he’s granted a waiver. Nate Oats has reportedly supported Davis getting a waiver after the transfer burned a redshirt year in 2018-19. Davis had a solid freshman season for Bama and would add the currently-lacking quality depth behind Ado.
Howland’s four freshman wings will vie for playing time off the pine, but none figure to make an enormous impact. 3-star Keondre Montgomery is a long wing with a gross-looking shot that somehow goes in. He has a ways to go before he can be a consistent contributor, but I do like his defensive potential. Cameron Matthews, the #2 HS prospect in Mississippi, is a burly 6’6” 220 lb. wing with a college-ready frame. He could steal minutes with his strength and athleticism alone. Andersson Garcia, another 3-star wing out of the Dominican Republic, is a good athlete with a smooth outside stroke. Derek Fountain, an unranked PF, is a raw prospect who can develop into a solid DI player over the next couple years.
Bottom Line: Losing three players to the Draft before their college eligibility is up is a crushing blow to any school, but especially one that doesn’t reel in 5-star recruits every year. Howland has the track record to make me believe he can stay competitive in the SEC, but this roster lacks the talent and the depth to put Miss State any higher than the bottom-four in the preseason.
Tier 4
14. Vanderbilt
Key Returners: Scotty Pippen Jr., Dylan Disu, Maxwell Evans, Ejike Obinna, Jordan Wright, Clevon Brown
Key Losses: Aaron Nesmith, Saben Lee, Matthew Moyer
Key Newcomers: DJ Harvey (Notre Dame), Quentin Millora-Brown (Rice), Isaac McBride (Kansas), Tyrin Lawrence, Myles Stute, Akeem Odusipe
Lineup:
Outlook: Jerry Stackhouse’s first year at the helm of Vanderbilt had its fair share of ups and downs. On the positive side, the Commodores finally won a conference game after losing 26 straight dating back to the season prior. Those three conference wins were also quite impressive, as Vandy took down two above-.500 teams in South Carolina and LSU at home and knocked off a talented Alabama squad on the road. On the negative side, Vandy was ultimately a bad basketball team, the second worst Power 6 program in the country per KenPom. Now, this wasn’t necessarily unexpected – in addition to coming off arguably the worst season in school history, the Commodores lost their best player, Aaron Nesmith, and starting center, Clevon Brown, to injury early in the year. An extremely young and inexperienced team became even younger and less experienced in the blink of an eye. Looking forward, Stackhouse will have the unenviable task of replacing Nesmith and starting guard Saben Lee, his two leading scorers from last season, but the former NBA All-Star has plenty of young talent to mold Vanderbilt into an SEC contender over the next few seasons.
Vandy had the worst offense in the SEC last year but it was significantly improved from the dreadful 2018-19 season. The Commodores shot a ton of threes but made less than 30% of them in conference play. Scoring primarily came by way of the free throw line, as Vandy ranked 9th in the country in FT rate and scored the 28th highest percentage of points from the charity stripe. Stackhouse pushed the pace occasionally – and the Commodores were good when he did – but mostly his squad played in the halfcourt where it relied on isolation, drive-and-kick, and pick-n-roll action to score. Per Hoop Lens, with Saben Lee on the floor, Vanderbilt scored a so-so 1.00 PPP – without Lee, Vandy put up just 0.92 PPP. Scoring may come at a premium in Nashville this year.
On the other end of the floor, the Commodores were much better when Lee sat, giving up just 0.94 PPP compared to 1.04 PPP when the star guard played, per Hoop Lens. Interior resistance was a real issue without Brown in the lineup, as opposing teams crushed the Commodores in the paint and near the rim with regularity. Stackhouse focused on taking away the three-ball but there was nobody near the rim to deter drivers being funneled in from the arc. Additionally, Vanderbilt was constantly burned in transition, an area that may improve with added experience across the roster.
The freshman-to-sophomore leap is usually a big one for most college basketball players, much like a lot of MLB stars hit their stride in their 27th year. Stackhouse has three sophomores this season who were major factors for last year’s team who could break out in major ways. Scotty Pippen, Jr. came to Vandy as a fairly unheralded 3-star recruit but started 31 games at the point for the Commodores in his rookie season. Pippen ranked 3rd in the SEC in FT rate and knocked down 36.2% of his 3PA. While not efficient inside the arc last year, Pippen has plenty of room to grow in his sophomore season and push for a spot on an All-Conference squad.
Side-note: I couldn’t figure out how “Scotty Pippen” was a “Jr.” to “Scottie Pippen.” Well, it turns out that “Scottie’s” real name is spelled “Scotty” on his birth certificate – he just spells it “Scottie” for fun. Interesting!
Back to ball. Dylan Disu is another former 3-star recruit who ended up starting 31 games last year for the ‘Dores. Disu had a couple outstanding performances in his freshman season, like his 21-point outburst against the Tide on January 22nd. Like most rookies, Disu also had plenty of not-so-great performances as well, but the experience gained last season should help those instances become few and far between in year two. Disu’s value lies in his activeness on the defensive glass, his finishing inside, and his “potential” to space the floor. I write “potential” in quotes due to Disu’s 29.5% three-point clip last season on 173 attempts.
Stackhouse’s third sophomore is 6’5” wing Jordan Wright, a versatile defender who can match up across several positions. Like Disu, Wright has much to prove in the ways of shooting – he made just 8 of his 53 3PA attempts as a freshman (15.1%).
Starting next to Pippen in the backcourt will likely be 6’2” senior Maxwell Evans and Notre Dame transfer DJ Harvey. Evans saw a huge jump in playing time when Stackhouse came to town; he’s mostly a spot-up shooter (91.1% of his 3PM were assisted) who can handle the ball in a pinch. Harvey, a former top 50 recruit, has the potential to be Vandy’s best player in 2020-21. After two underwhelming seasons with the Irish, Harvey jumped ship for a fresh start with the Commodores; his talent is apparent, and he’s a three-level scorer and able wing defender on the other end.
Bench minutes in the backcourt will be split between Kansas transfer Isaac McBride, freshmen Tyrin Lawrence and Myles Stute, and (possibly) walk-on Braelee Albert. McBride came to KU as a borderline 4-star recruit but never played before transferring after his first semester. The 2019 Arkansas Player of the Year, McBride is a flat-out scorer and super quick, a guy who could add value as a change-of-pace guard or instant offense off the pine. Lawrence and Stute are both 3-star recruits – Lawrence is an athlete with good handles and a rangy lefty jumper, while Stute is a decently athletic wing who could contribute in several facets once his game is DI-ready.
Expect to see Clevon Brown inserted right back into the starting frontcourt alongside Disu after missing nearly the entire 2018-19 season to injury. Brown is a shot blocker, something Vandy SORELY lacks, and a strong rebounder. Last season, Brown started to shoot the three more than he has in the past and with more success. If Disu and Brown both develop into consistent long-ball threats, Stackhouse could have a dangerous 5-out offensive attack.
Ejike Obinna and Quentin Millora-Brown will battle for minutes behind Brown and Disu. Obinna is a good rebounder but mostly a zero on offense. Interestingly, Obinna registered zero assists last year despite playing 565 minutes (over 18 MPG) and has just one assist in two collegiate seasons (800 minutes). Obinna is also a terrible shot blocker, especially for his size. Millora-Brown, a Rice transfer, enjoyed a very good freshman season down in Houston. He ranked 5th in C-USA in block rate and 6th in OR%. He’ll be a factor for Vandy on the block off the bench and could see regular starts in 2021-22. Freshman Akeem Odusipe, a 3-star PF, will provide frontcourt depth.
Bottom Line: Vanderbilt can basically be Sharpied into the 14th slot in the SEC for the third consecutive season. However, I like what Stackhouse has started to do on the recruiting path and think he can have a respectable squad in the next couple years.