-Jim Root
I’ve been tempted to just turn this into a Top 2 column, rather than a Top 12, because I’m not sure anyone belongs on the same planet as Gonzaga and Baylor. I’m too kind though, so I decided to talk about 10 other teams, as well…
1. Gonzaga
I tweeted excitedly about Gonzaga’s passing during their dismantling of Iowa’s defense on Saturday (my roommate can attest that I was giddy at the offensive precision), and really, it was a team-wide effort – the Zags had 25 assists on 36 made field goals, dicing up the Hawkeyes’ zone any time they went to it with looks like this:
An unsung hero stood out to me, though: grad transfer Aaron Cook, a newcomer whose role was reduced when Andrew Nembhard received a waiver right before the season started. Cook has seemingly taken that in stride, though, becoming a weapon off the bench with dazzling passes of his own:
I mean, that’s their fifth-best guard! A guy that might have been First Team All-MVC last year had he stayed healthy for Southern Illinois is an insanely overqualified role player! Along with Nembhard, Cook affords Mark Few so much lineup flexibility off the bench, adding another skilled player that can create, pass, and shoot.
2. Baylor
Baylor has ascended to #1 at KenPom, BartTorvik, and Haslametrics. They just won a half against Arkansas Pine Bluff by 43 — yes, it was 55-12, I watched it for some unknown reason. The Bears lead the entire country in three-point shooting at 47.0%, with five different players having connected on at least 12 triples at 40% or better. The thing is, Baylor’s played one (1) top 100 team, and their next three games after Christmas are against Central Arkansas (yikes), Alcorn State (giant yikes), and at Iowa State (Big 12 yikes). Can we get this team some competition please?!
3. Houston
When Arkansas transfer Reggie Chaney committed to Houston, it seemed like a perfect fit: a low-usage, high-effort forward who attacks the offensive glass with reckless abandon and who can defend the rim on the other end. While not a one-for-one replacement, Chaney could soak up many of the minutes expected to go to Fabian White, doomed to miss the season with a torn ACL. So it was surprising to see Chaney manage just 31 minutes combined in the Cougars’ first four games, tallying a measly two points and six rebounds total.
Well, that changed post-COVID shutdown. Chaney ascended to the starting lineup against Alcorn State, and he racked up an impressive line of 18 points, six rebounds, and two blocks against the overmatched Braves. It may not hold long-term, but he essentially usurped the talented but erratic Brison Gresham. If both can play well at the same time, Houston has the ideal frontcourt for Kelvin Sampson’s system on both ends of the court.
4. West Virginia
I don’t know how to feel watching a West Virginia squad that actually has some shooting on the floor. Last year’s team was completely undermined by its almost-comical impotence from beyond the arc, ranking a dismal 329th nationally in 3PA rate and an even worse 338th in 3P% (28.6%). Fortunately, the Mountaineers have found the range a little this year; though they aren’t taking more threes, they’re making more, boosting the team 3P% up to 32.8% - not great, but acceptable.
Deuce McBride’s development is the most important arc for West Virginia’s offense, but teams also have to be legitimately worried about former JUCO transfers Taz Sherman and Sean McNeil as they space the floor around WVU’s frontcourt onslaught. If that continues (including tonight against KU’s stout defense), West Virginia is certainly a true national title contender.
5. Villanova
During the Villanova/Saint Joe’s game, the announcers drew an apt comparison between Eric Paschall and Caleb Daniels, in the sense that began their college careers at dreadful basketball programs (Fordham, Tulane) before coming to Villanova and blossoming into efficient pieces for national title contenders (well, winner, in Paschall’s case). Blessed with more talented teammates and a lesser creative burden, Daniels has become more efficient across the board, in particular as a long-range sniper – he’s made 45.2% from deep, with two or more makes in every game but one. Plus, he’s already won more conference games (two) than he did with Tulane in the entire 2018-19 season (a big fat zero). GQ Jay knows how to pick them, doesn’t he?
6. Tennessee
I’ve said on our podcast a couple times that I think this is the best defense in the country, and here’s two clips from the Saint Joe’s game that exemplify why. First, the mundane. In the below clip, Santiago Vescovi and John Fulkerson are forced to switch on a ball screen, but when the ball is reversed, they immediately switch back instinctively. This means that Fulkerson is the one helping on a drive, rather than the smaller Vescovi (let’s not debate the validity of the charge call):
It might seem small and unimportant, but those little plays add up - especially when made by tremendous individual defenders, of which Tennessee has many. Those guys make plays like this:
That’s freshman Keon Johnson, a monster athlete overflowing with potential. The Vols may just be scratching the surface at this point – and they’re already damn good.
7. Kansas
Every stat record associated with Kansas and its dominance of the Big 12 is ridiculous, but the newest one to rise to prominence is right up there in its absurdity: the Jayhawks have won 30 consecutive conference openers. I’m 31 years old, which means I have absolutely no memory of Kansas ever being 0-1 in league play. What the hell!
Mike Lopresti wrote up a great list detailing more of those wild tidbits – check that out. Another of my favorites: Bill Self has won 15 Big 12 titles in his first 17 seasons in Lawrence. In that time, he’s lost 14 games total at Allen Fieldhouse.
8. Texas
There’s a lot to love on this Texas team, and most of the ample praise thrown its way goes towards the high-flying big men or the veteran backcourt (as I’ve written about in the last two weeks, respectively). But it’s time to show some love to Brock “Elmer’s” Cunningham, aka Mr. Glue Guy himself! As someone who has shades of Cunningham in my game (try super hard on the offensive glass, bang in a few jumpers, defend multiple positions), I have to respect what he’s doing on a team full of 4- and 5-star recruits.
Cunningham emerged down the stretch last season, slotting into the rotation during the team’s late 5-game winning streak that vaulted it into the NCAA Tournament conversation, and he played a massive role in capturing the Maui Invitational title this season. Sure, he barely saw the court against Oklahoma State on Sunday (four minutes – come on, we needed more Cade vs. Brock action!), but Shaka Smart clearly likes what he brings to this team from a hustle perspective, and I do too.
9. Iowa
It may sound strange considering the Hawkeyes were down 51-37 at halftime and trailed by double-digits for almost the entirety of the second half against a team that just had a COVID shutdown, but I actually came away from Saturday’s loss to Gonzaga higher on Iowa than I was prior to that game. Everyone not named Joe Wieskamp was ice cold from the perimeter, and Iowa never let Gonzaga get fully comfortable despite the Bulldogs themselves burying 50% of their triples. Luka Garza basically fouled out two All-Americans on his own (Drew Timme and Corey Kispert), and the Hawkeyes tallied 1.04 points per possession against a top 15 defense while bricking deep balls and free throws alike (18.2% from downtown, 53.8% from the stripe).
The biggest red flag was getting mauled on the glass by a team that largely played four-guard lineups; Iowa simply cannot allow opponents to grab 40% of their misses, or the defense is in even worse shape than we already thought. Big Ten foes will feast on the glass if given the chance.
10. Rutgers
The best team in the Big Ten?!?! Rutgers could make a reasonable claim to that honor at this point, sporting a blemish-free 6-0 record overall, as well as the Big Ten’s only 2-0 record in conference play. The largest improvement for the Scarlet Knights has come on offense, and more specifically, Ron Harper Jr. has evolved into a terrifying scorer and shooter.
Last year, Harper took 71 “catch and shoot” jumpers in the half court (just over two per game), tallying 72 points on those shots, placing him in the 57th percentile nationally in points per possession – not bad! This year, though, Harper has already taken 29 such jumpers (nearly five per game), and he’s already racked up a volcanic 57 points on them. That’s enough to put him in the 99th percentile nationally, and Steve Pikiell is consistently running sets to get his newfound sniper open looks:
The stroke is easy, smooth, and repeatable, meaning that Harper is plenty capable of continuing his run of shooting success – though perhaps he won’t be Steph Curry all season.
11. Missouri
Shockingly, I’m going to use this section as a critique of my Tigers. Folks, Mizzou should be playing a home-and-home with Saint Louis every year. They should! It would be a terrific rivalry, fueled by recruiting battles in St. Louis and the surrounding area, and that only serves to raise fan engagement – on both sides.
Coincidentally, the most common arguments against it mirror the same ones made by Kansas fans as to why the Jayhawks shouldn’t bother playing Mizzou: why prop up a program that is “lesser,” playing annually could potentially help the rival’s recruiting, etc. It feels tremendously hypocritical to demand that Kansas play our Tigers while refusing to play SLU, so for my part, I’d love to see that game happen annually. Oh, and it’s especially lame this year: both teams are very good, and there’s a pandemic that makes playing local foes much more logical. Sigh…
12. Michigan
Welcome to the Rankings, Wolverines! Michigan has mostly gotten to this spot via attrition; the Wolverines have yet to play away from the Crisler Center, and their best win (Penn State) isn’t fully demanding of a spot here (though the trouncing of UCF looks a whole lot better now after the Knights won at Florida State).
The crucial development for the Wolverines has been the emergence of Hunter Dickinson as a legitimate offensive fulcrum. The freshman has been a destructive force in the paint on both ends of the court, and that’s been made even more vital by an injury to senior center Austin Davis, pressing Dickinson into a larger minutes share in the future. And perhaps that’s a great thing:
In a Big Ten that features Luka Garza, Kofi Cockburn, Trevion Williams, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Nate Reuvers/Micah Potter, Myles Johnson, et al, having a big-bodied center that can battle inside is a prerequisite. Fortunately, Michigan appears to have one in its diaper dandy.
Quick note on Michigan State: Yes, they drop all the way out. They’ve put forth four straight uninspiring efforts, culminating in getting clobbered by Northwestern. They’ve dropped to 27th in KenPom, 29th in Haslametrics. Plus, winning at Duke lacks the luster I thought it carried. Earn your way back in, Spartans.