-Jim Root
Note: Official 3MW picks + leans can be found at the bottom of this page in the attached photo. We also have made notes if we felt it relevant to do so - when we locked in a bet, any info we’re waiting on, etc.
(1) Illinois vs. (16) Drexel
Initial Thoughts: It’s hard to envision a team playing better while entering the tournament than Illinois, who has won 14 of its last 15 games – seven of those by double-digits – with the only loss coming on the road to a desperate Michigan State squad. Ayo Dosunmu’s injury and subsequent return seemed to only help the Illini, elevating freshman Andre Curbelo’s game and confidence simultaneously, and despite not having played in an NCAA Tournament since 2013, the Illini are a real threat to cut down the nets.
Drexel, meanwhile, is incredibly hard to evaluate. Seeing them below Iona on the S-Curve as a 16-seed was a slight surprise, but perhaps it’s because the Dragons are just tough to evaluate in general. They’ve only played 19 games this year after COVID-19 ravaged their conference, and they played only one team ranked in the KenPom top 150 all season (lost at #89 Pitt on Nov. 28).
Illinois on Offense: It could get ugly on this end. Illinois primarily scores in three ways: transition, post ups, and spread pick-and-rolls featuring Dosunmu, Curbelo, or Trent Frazier, and Drexel ranges from “mediocre” to “outright terrible” at defending those.
Let’s start with transition, where Dosunmu may be the most dynamic player with the ball in his hands in the entire country. He simply cannot be stopped when he’s going downhill, and Drexel gives up a ton in the open floor – both in terms of frequency and efficiency.
The post is where Drexel might at least battle to a stalemate, even though burly center James Butler is giving up plenty of height to both Kofi Cockburn and Giorgi Bezhanishvili. Butler is grown man strong and works his tail off on every play, so perhaps he can prevent the Illini center duo from establishing deep position, but he’s also mostly ground-bound and won’t be able to do anything to prevent those two from finishing over the top of him.
The final area is the shiny, neon, flashing “WARNING” sign. Dosunmu and Curbelo are both maestros in PnR action, deftly dicing all the way to the rim or shredding rotations with pinpoint dishes to waiting scorers. That is dire for Drexel, who ranks in the 13th percentile nationally in defending pick-and-roll ball-handlers. Dosunmu and Curbelo can get wherever they want, and Drexel has zero rim protection to contest with driving finishes or drop-offs to Cockburn/Bezhanishvili.
Drexel on Offense: Drexel has some mild hope here, though I should stress mild. Cam Wynter is a true floor general leading this offense, carefully finding the correct balance between scoring himself and generating open looks for his teammates. Thanks almost entirely to Wynter, Drexel is one of the most efficient pick-and-roll offenses in the country, and getting Cockburn/Bezhanishvili defending in space is a great way to attack Illinois. Unfortunately, they don’t actually run it at a high clip, so unless Coach Zach Spiker zeroes in on that edge, it may not get maximized.
The other potential key is Drexel’s scorching shooting of late. The Dragons have been just that: fire-breathing monsters from beyond the arc, cashing in on a staggering 51.4% of their triples over their last six games.
Wynter, Zach Walton, and Mate Okros are all prolific high-volume threats, and all three can make difficult, contested shots at times. Heck, even Butler joined the party in the CAA Tournament, going 3-for-3 over the three-game run.
Illinois runs a modified pack line, intent on cutting off driving lanes while also closing out hard on the catch to take away perimeter attempts. Still, Wynter will likely create some open shots given his PnR prowess, so if Drexel is hot early, it could hang around. Skilled forward TJ Bickerstaff could also be a mismatch inside at 6’9 with Illinois traditionally rolling out four wings/guards.
Unfortunately, the offensive glass won’t be an option here for Bickerstaff and the maniacal Butler, as Illinois is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the land.
Key Factor(s): It’s the pick-and-roll game for me, folks. I just don’t see how Drexel slows down the Illinois attack if Brad Underwood’s boys are even remotely engaged, and they seem to be on a mega mission of late (though an emotional Big Ten Championship win in OT could lead to a slight early hangover). Once focused, Illinois could pile up 50+ paint points between transition offense and PnR execution.
Final Prediction: This feels like a “name your number” game for the Illinois offense, as Drexel’s defense is particularly poor against what Illinois does best and has yet to see an opponent even remotely as talented as this one. The Dragons could hang around for a bit if they remain hot from the perimeter, but they can’t count on much interior production at all. Of the four 1 vs. 16 games, this stands out as my favorite “First to 15 points” candidate, with Drexel’s current shooting surge being the key factor.
(8) Loyola-Chi vs. (9) Georgia Tech
Initial Thoughts: Tough shake for both teams here, honestly. On the Ramblers’ side, they are stuck in an 8 vs. 9 game despite finishing 9th at KenPom, 13th in T-Rank, and 18th in Haslametrics, marking them overqualified for this game by all reasonable predictive measures. A lack of top-end wins hurt them, though, and the Ramblers will be hard-pressed to repeat the magic of 2018.
Like Loyola Chicago, who has won six in a row and 17 of 18, Georgia Tech enters the Big Dance surging, winners of eight in a row themselves. Josh Pastner and the Jackets secured an emotional ACC Tournament championship, perfectly pouncing on the opportunity presented by Virginia’s COVID-related withdrawal. GT last appeared in the NCAA Tournament in 2010, so this is a big deal in Atlanta.
Loyola-Chicago on Offense: If you’ve watched any of Loyola this year, you know the drill offensively: play through the wickedly skilled Cam Krutwig on the block or at the free throw line, let him destroy the defense from the inside-out via ballerina-esque post moves and pinpoint passes to cutters and shooters. His considerable skill set helps him lead the team in basically every offensive category that is not perimeter shooting. Ramblers rank 62nd nationally in frequency of post ups and 24th in handoffs, both of which are keyed by Krutwig’s cerebral game.
All of that in mind, this is a worrisome matchup for the Ramblers, as Georgia Tech often mixes in an unconventional 1-3-1 matchup-ish zone. Looks normal at the start:
But as possessions go, it morphs into weirdness:
The dynamics of that zone make post ups and handoffs somewhat difficult to come by, and Pastner may opt to use that frequently, especially given the total lack of zone Loyola has faced this year (just 64 possessions all season – the MVC is ALL man-to-man).
Fortunately, all is not lost. Porter Moser is a savvy coach with time to prepare for that zone, and the rest of the roster is composed of intelligent passers. Between Braden Norris, Keith Clemons, and Lucas Williamson, the Ramblers should have enough shooting to stress the rotations of that funky system. Skilled lefty forward Tate Hall could be an X factor: he was an all-conference guy in the preseason, but he’s posted zero points in five of his last nine outings.
Georgia Tech on Offense: Just like on defense, the Yellow Jackets are pretty unconventional in terms of offensive scheme. They don’t run a ton of pick-and-roll or post ups, instead using a lot of spread sets with myriad cutting (our friend Jordan Majewski describes it as a sort of modified Princeton system).
The strength of the personnel is what makes it work so well. Jose Alvarado and Michael Devoe form an elite backcourt duo, with both capable of shouldering the scoring or creation burden, depending on the matchup. Loyola’s Lucas Williamson is an elite perimeter defender, but there’s only one of him, so expect the Yellow Jackets to try and pick on whoever is being guarded by Clemons/Norris.
Plus, ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright has evolved into a total wrecking ball as a senior, dominating the glass with his non-stop energy and physicality and becoming a terrific finisher around the rim. He has a massive athletic edge against the nimble-but-grounded Krutwig, and moving him around the floor to make Krutwig defend in space a bit could give the Ramblers nightmares.
All of this said, Loyola-Chicago is still massively difficult to score on thanks to their physicality, unbreakable discipline in gap coverage and rotations, refusal to foul, and work on the defensive glass. They force you to live in the mid-range, and Georgia Tech goes through stretches of confounding shot selection even against lesser defensive units.
Key Factor(s): If either team’s primary big man gets in foul trouble, this game could change on a dime. Neither team has a capable backup to even remotely replace the production of Krutwig/Wright, so keep an eye on how this is officiated early. Neither big man is especially great at drawing contact, which should keep both of them on the floor, but a couple exuberant calls from an official could give one team a clear edge. That’s a major potential live betting opportunity.
Final Prediction: I was totally ready to pick Loyola-Chicago over basically anyone in the first round; I just thought the Ramblers are too sound defensively, too smart offensively, and too well-coached to go down early. But the matchup zone – and Loyola’s total unfamiliarity with zone all season – gave me plenty of pause while considering the matchup. Ultimately, though, I’ll roll with Moser and the ‘Blers against an entertaining and likable Yellow Jackets squad.
(5) Tennessee vs. (12) Oregon St.
Initial Thoughts: Good gracious, what a run from the Beavers! Oregon State took full advantage of a bye afforded to them solely because Arizona was ineligible for the postseason, leveraging that standing to a stunning rampage against three of the league’s four other NCAA Tournament teams. All through that tournament, the Beavers rallied around the number “12” after having been picked last in the Pac-12 preseason poll, so you can bet they’re comfortable with their given seed.
The Beavers get another orange afficionado in Tennessee, a team loaded with talent that has left us wanting more at various points this season. The Vols started out as a suffocating force on the defensive end, but offensive woes set in during SEC play, pushing them into this unenviable 5 vs. 12 slot. We also do not yet know if John Fulkerson will be cleared to play after Omar Payne savagely and sleazily elbowed him in the head during the SEC Tournament.
Tennessee on Offense: As mentioned, this is mostly where the Vols have struggled this year. The lack of a true pass-first, penetrating point guard has shown up in multiple facets: Tennessee is awful in late shot clock situations when they need a bucket, and they’re absolutely abysmal running pick-and-rolls (8th percentile nationally, per Synergy). Of course, they run very little of it in Rick Barnes’ system, but the fact that it’s simply not an option at all is a problem.
The Vols have also had serious issues with zones this year, scoring in the 35th percentile nationally. They lack consistent shooting outside of Santiago Vescovi; Victor Bailey is the king of streaky, while Jaden Springer is not high volume enough to warrant special attention. That enables opponents to really collapse on uber athletes Keon Johnson and Yves Pons, and removing Fulkerson’s interior finishing would be another crippling blow to the already-scuffling attack.
These zone troubles are problematic against a game-planner like Wayne Tinkle, who will liberally mix defenses if he feels it will get the opponent off balance. The Beavers played zone on more than a quarter of their defensive possessions, and while a significant chunk of that is out-of-bounds plays, he also will play it as a primary defense in the right setting. This…this is that setting.
If the Beavers do play man, Tennessee can attack mismatches with Pons and freshman phenom Johnson, both of whom can bully smaller players or out-quick bigger foes. Johnson is playing his best basketball at the right time, though he can be sloppy with the ball at times.
Oregon St. on Offense: Like the many sparkling neon signs in the city, the Beavers lit up Las Vegas this past weekend, tallying 1.11, 1.17, and 1.19 points per possession over their three games. The wave of confidence washing over the team was crystal clear: shooters stepped into jumpers without hesitation, and the Beavers turned it over just seven times in the championship game, just their sixth time in single-digits all year. The below shot from Jarod Lucas really stood out to me. Look at the time and score – late in the game, a more nervous underdog would pull this out and wind clock, but instead, Lucas immediately whipped an early dagger into Colorado’s back:
A new challenge awaits, though. Other than Vescovi, Tennessee is an army of 6’4 to 6’9 athletic marvels, with Pons, Johnson, and Josiah-Jordan James all ranking among the SEC’s best defenders. Oregon State will need all of its pristine ball movement (25th nationally in assist rate) to find gaps against the redwood forest that is the Vols’ defense.
The continued emergence of Maurice Calloo as a floor-stretching big (3-of-6 from deep in the title game) would really help open up the floor for the Beavers’ plethora of post ups. The trio of Warith Alatishe, Rodrigue Andela, and Roman Silva are all capable scorers inside, and with Fulkerson’s status very much in doubt, Tennessee could be without its best post defender. If Andela and Silva feast to the point of forcing Barnes to play Uros Plavsic, that’s a win for Oregon State.
Key Factor(s): Fulkerson’s status is paramount. He had a brutal black eye and was wearing ear plugs on Saturday, likely indicating a concussion, and he is reportedly being evaluated daily to see if he can take the court for this one. Without him, Barnes’ options are limited, either going small with Pons/James at center or throwing out Plavsic/Olivier Nkamhoua in situations for which they just aren’t suited.
Final Prediction: I will likely hold off on a wager here until we know more about Fulkerson’s status. Without him, the Beavers’ propensity to zone a stagnant Vols’ offense would make me lean their way, but if he plays, that amps up the Vols’ interior play on both ends of the court. Either way, I lean towards the under, as Oregon State is certainly in no hurry, and both teams could labor to score against the other’s defense.
(4) Oklahoma St. vs. (13) Liberty
Initial Thoughts: I wanted to go on an irrelevant tangent about Oklahoma State’s resume being way, way too good to be a 4-seed, but I’m trying to learn how to be concise, so I won’t complain that seven Q1A wins and 10 Q1 wins should not be knocked because of two silly TCU losses. I wouldn’t dare.
The unfortunate recipient of the Cowboys’ relegation to the four line is Liberty, the ASUN Champions for the third straight year after arriving from the Big South. The Flames have a vastly different core than the team that won the last two postseason bids, though, and Ritchie McKay’s ability to tweak his approach to this year’s personnel is still more evidence of his tremendous work on the sidelines.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State enters as a national darling thanks to Cade Cunningham’s continued emergence into the superstar we all hoped he might be.
Oklahoma St. on Offense: I don’t want to bore you too much by discussing Cunningham ad nauseum, but he’s the best player and the linchpin of the team’s offense, so we have to cover him a bit.
Liberty runs a slightly more extended version of the pack line, more intent on taking away the three-point line than typical variations of the scheme. McKay might want to consider reeling that back in for this one, as the Cowboys really don’t score much from beyond the arc, ranking just 310th nationally in percentage of points that come via triples.
The most important aspect of this matchup is tempo. Oklahoma State is a devastating transition team; the Cowboys’ team speed with Avery Anderson, Rondel Walker, Bryce Williams, Ice Likekele, and even Kalib Boone is a wonder to behold when they all get going downhill off a steal or long rebound:
The Flames desperately want to play a crawling half court game, and forcing Oklahoma State to execute in the half court is definitely the way to go. Once there, they’ll have to figure some way to slow down Cunningham’s ridiculously effective isolation game; 6-7 forward Kyle Rode and 6-4 guard Elijah Cuffee probably get first crack at him, but he is a glaring nightmare mismatch for Liberty here (even more so than he always is).
Liberty on Offense: The Flames made a name for themselves the last two years via a four-out offense around physical forward Scottie James (whose name doesn’t not sound like a porn star), and while that’s still somewhat alive with Blake Preston (also kind of porn star-ish?) filling the James role, this edition of the Flames is more prolific from beyond the arc.
The diminutive-but-dynamic duo of 5-9 Darius McGhee and 6-1 Chris Parker ignites the offense, with McGhee sporting absolutely unlimited range:
That gif does not have volume, but in the actual clip, the announcer exclaims, “He will just steal your soul!” after that one.
He ranks in the 98th percentile nationally in jump shot efficiency off the dribble and the 85th on catch-and-shoot opportunities, and fun fact, he’s something like 19-for-19 when I watch him shoot. He’ll be a fan favorite, especially for those that are secretly sick of the Cade narrative and want to see him flame out (ha!) early in the tournament (I am not one of these people).
The Flames run a ton of ball screen and handoff action to get him into space, and I’d expect Oklahoma State to experiment with blitzing him in those scenarios, forcing the tiny McGhee to beat them with passes. If he does, Liberty has four snipers on the floor at all times, so they could easily exploit that three points at a time.
The Cowboys zone a ton, often trapping some in the hopes of sparking their transition offense, but Liberty is very close to the bottom of the list of teams I would want to zone. Their shooting is truly absurd.
Key Factor(s): Liberty does a ton of things that perfectly combat Oklahoma State’s weaknesses and negate its strengths, and another one of those is the Flames’ elite work on the defensive glass, where they rank 14th nationally in rate. OSU is not a particularly adept perimeter shooting team, and they thrive off second chances by sending waves of athletes at the glass. If Liberty can hold up against a bigger, more athletic squad, that would cut out a crucial route to Cowboy scoring.
On that note, it’s worth noting that Liberty played a grueling non-conference schedule: in a five-day span, the Flames beat Mississippi State and South Carolina and lost to Purdue and TCU. They also gave Missouri all it could handle in December. They will not be intimidated here.
Final Prediction: I’ve probably given this one away by how I’ve written this preview, but I am on Liberty here. The Flames follow the giant killer model quite well, minimizing possessions and maximizing variance via the three-point shot; the big worry is Oklahoma State’s bevy of ball-handlers finding a way to speed up the tempo. I was fortunate to get in early, and I’d be wary at anything below +7.5.
(6) San Diego St. vs. (11) Syracuse
Initial Thoughts: It is absolutely confounding to me that Syracuse escaped a First Four game. One Q1 win (and it wasn’t Q1A)? A 3-8 record away from the Carrier Dome, plus a Q3 loss? Jimmy B’s relationship with the committee certainly must be better than with his own team’s beat reporters.
San Diego State, meanwhile, is an interesting case. The Aztecs didn’t earn any earth-shattering wins during the season either, but they beat bad foes to a bloody pulp, amping up their metrics across the board. A late season run against Boise State, Nevada, and Utah State finally got me on board. But can the Aztecs prevail against the Orange at-large voodoo magic?
San Diego St. on Offense: Any game against Syracuse has to start with how that team fares against zone. Synergy reports that SDSU shreds such alignments, scoring in the 79th percentile nationally at over 1.0 PPP. Important note, though: that’s a little inflated from the back-to-back monumental destructions that SDSU gave the porous Air Force zone (1.36 PPP and 1.40 PPP in consecutive games).
Impressively, the Aztecs did that with Matt Mitchell playing just 14 minutes combined, easily creating open shots inside and out without the Mountain West Player of the Year. Mitchell’s return should only help, though. He’s the perfect player to stick at the free throw line and trust to make the right play. He’s smart, he’s strong with the ball, and he’s fully capable of knocking in a couple floaters or 15-footers if given too much space. He can spray the ball around to the Aztecs’ lethal shooters – Jordan Schakel, Terrell Gomez, Adam Seiko – or feed a big man on the baseline if the zone is too stretched out. The combination of ball and man movement here is effective, and Mitchell will always draw a crowd:
This is not one of Boeheim’s best zones, particularly when he has Kadary Richmond nailed to the bench. Richmond is one of the most impactful defenders I’ve seen all season (not shockingly, he ranks 4th in steal rate), but he is often stuck behind the offense-first backcourt of Joe Girard and Alan Griffin.
SDSU is not an elite offensive rebounding team since it’s more focused on transition defense, but Nathan Mensah, Aguek Arop, and Joshua Tomaic will create plenty of second shots against Syracuse’s absent-minded work on the defensive glass.
Syracuse on Offense: This is where SDSU Coach Brian Dutcher’s game planning will really be tested. The Aztecs are a pack line team, jamming up all driving lanes and doubling the post while mostly conceding jumpers over the top. That’s not an option against Syracuse, who boasts two of the most lethal jump shooters in the country (plus Joe Girard, who has been mired in a season-long slump but can get scorching hot).
Dutcher needs to make sure his guards break from principle somewhat here, particularly on Buddy Bombs (my new nickname for him). Matt Mitchell is an elite defensive player, but he may be stuck guarding Quincy Guerrier, so Jordan Schakel likely gets the honor of chasing Boeheim all over God’s green earth. When Buddy Bombs gets going, he can slap 12 points on you in 90 seconds; his release is high and lightning quick, and he is an outstanding on-the-move shooter:
He and Griffin will repeatedly torch the pack line if Dutcher does not adjust his approach. SDSU did well against a team of similar caliber that relies heavily on the deep ball, Colorado State, though the blown 26-point lead – in a game where the Rams hit 11 triples – shows the downside if the Aztecs aren’t glued to the Orange gunners.
Elsewhere, Mitchell is a perfect matchup against Guerrier’s versatile and physical game, and Nathan Mensah (another MWC All-Defense honoree) will control the rim. The shooting is the absolute #1 concern here.
Key Factor(s): Does San Diego State hit shots? It’s a simplistic “key factor,” but it’s vital against Syracuse. Too many bricked threes lead to transition opportunities for the Orange, while knocking down a few early really stretches out the zone and opens up space for Mitchell and Mensah to operate.
This game is at Hinkle Fieldhouse, which gives me an inkling that both teams will be making jumpers. The shooting background in that arena has always struck me as friendly, though perhaps I’m just clouded by Butler nuking Villanova there several times in the recent past.
Final Prediction: Syracuse has a longstanding tradition of pulling off shockers from the 10- or 11-seed range, but I’m banking on the Aztecs having the right pieces and approach to attack the 2-3 from multiple angles plus Dutcher’s savvy coaching adjustments to be the difference. Plus, while the zone is indeed tough to prepare for in postseason play, Dutcher has a full five days to scheme up his approach. As long as Buddy Bombs doesn’t go for 30, I think the Aztecs get it done. This also has the feel of a slower game that goes over thanks to efficiency – see the Baylor/Syracuse game from 2019 for an example.
(3) West Virginia vs. (14) Morehead St.
Initial Thoughts: Though it’s disappointing to not have Belmont’s explosive offense in this tournament, Morehead State is a worthy alternative from the OVC, bringing the league’s best defense (by far) while having won 19 of its last 20 games.
They 14-seed Eagles get West Virginia in the first round, a team that’s been tough to figure out all season. Oscar Tshiebwe’s midseason decision to transfer was slightly confusing, and it forced Bob Huggins to alter his team’s entire offensive identity, but here the Mountaineers are, a 3-seed despite losing twice in a row to 4-seed Oklahoma State to end the year.
I’m sure I don’t need to remind Mountaineer fans of what happened last time their squad was a 3-seed, but for anyone else: in 2016, they fell to 14-seed Stephen F. Austin, who was coached at the time Brad Underwood, now the boss man at Illinois.
West Virginia on Offense: This is…the strength of the team…and it’s not even close? It feels bizarre to say that about this WVU team, but once Oscar the Grouch (aka Oscar Tshiebwe) bounced out of town, Huggins went smaller and unleashed his deadly band of shot-making terrors in Miles McBride, Sean McNeil, and Taz Sherman. In a shocking turn of events, West Virginia now ranks 24th in the country in percentage of jump shots coming off the dribble.
That has made West Virginia a more unpredictable team: when at least two of those guys are on, stopping West Virginia becomes a nearly impossible task, but when they’re cold, WVU can go through extended droughts and dig itself a deep hole. Morehead played four guards, all of whom stand either 6-3 or 6-4, and that backcourt size could be pivotal in trying to stop the WVU trio.
Part of what’s so difficult is that those celestial shooters orbit around a powerful force in the paint in Derek Culver. The powerful junior’s game embodies the word “bully,” as he forces his way to the rim offensively and completely dominates the glass on both ends. His powerful frame and high motor help him rank 7th in the country in fouls drawn per 40, leading to a ton of free throws (if only he made more than 61.3%).
Culver’s penchant for drawing contact is a serious concern for Morehead State. Center Johni Broome will be tasked with guarding him, and the Eagles need the OVC Freshman of the Year on the court on both ends. He’s a destroyer on defense, capable of switching onto guards when needed, but that may not be a viable option when Culver is on the court to punish Morehead’s guards. Broome did a tremendous job of staying out of foul trouble all year, but he hasn’t faced a bulldozer quite like Culver yet.
Morehead St. on Offense: I just need to start here: Morehead State is not the offensive machine it looked like in the national TV blowout of Belmont in the OVC Championship. That devastating two-way performance left many ready to anoint the Eagles the upset du jour, but those folks did not watch Morehead struggle to amass 0.90 PPP against a gassed SIU Edwardsville team just two weeks prior (why did I do that to myself?). To wit: Morehead scorched the earth for 1.30 PPP in that OVC final; in the previous two tournament games, it tallied 0.96 and 0.97 PPP against lesser competition.
WITH THAT SAID, the Eagles do have some fun pieces in freshman phenom Broome, dynamic wing Skyelar Potter, and the Cooper brothers who aren’t actually brothers, Devon and Ta’lon. Broome blossomed quickly blossomed into a star, surprising even the Morehead staff with his game on both ends:
Unfortunately, he faces a difficult matchup here against Culver and Gabe Osabuohien. Culver had some issues defending the post against Big 12 foes, but he’s as strong as an ox, and for all of Broome’s excellent qualities, he’s still filling out his strength profile. Osabuohien can match Broome’s versatility step for step, and if Broome can’t score one-on-one, the Eagles’ offense can short-circuit.
Coach Preston Spradlin also runs a bunch of off-ball screening to get Potter and the Coopers open, but all three can go through droughts. Ta’lon Cooper and and KJ Hunt are solid at the point guard position, but the Eagles lack a true creative hub on the backcourt, and that could be an issue against a Bob Huggins defense (though this is decidedly NOT a typical WVU lockdown defense).
Key Factor(s): How this game is officiated will be paramount on both sides. It’s not just about Broome’s individual foul trouble, either. West Virginia scores the 16th-highest share of its points at the free throw line in the entire country, but Morehead State’s disciplined switching shell defense never fouls. Which strength wins out here? Will veteran ref wrangler Bob Huggins win the ear of the stripes against young Preston Spradlin, who is coaching his first postseason tournament game ever (no NIT, no CBI, no CIT, etc.)? At least we know TV Teddy won’t be taking this game over.
Final Prediction: I have had an internal tug of war on this game, spread-wise, since the bracket was revealed, and I honestly thought writing the detailed game preview would give me more clarity than it did. The size and defensive prowess of Morehead’s guards really entices me, but the Eagles’ offense can be bafflingly bad at times – and it gets nightmarish if Broome picks a couple quick fouls. I’ll probably back the dog, ultimately, but I’ll wait to see if it goes any higher for now.
(7) Clemson vs. (10) Rutgers
Initial Thoughts: Let’s get all of the cliches out of the way now. Rock fight, brick-laying contest, assault on the eyes…what else am I missing?
If this game isn’t accurately described by all of the above, it might be the biggest upset of the first round. Both teams excel on the defensive end while having lagging offenses, and neither wants to push the tempo; Clemson in particular adamantly prefers crawl ball.
Here’s a great way to summarize what we’re dealing with: the combined ranking of these two offenses via KenPom is 174. The combined rank of the two defenses: 38. You’ll be forgiven if you aren’t desperately awaiting this evening tip (Villanova/Winthrop is 37 minutes later!).
Clemson felt a little over-seeded on Sunday ($5 to whoever can explain why Clemson is two seed lines higher than Mizzou!), so it made sense to see Rutgers take money at the pickem opener despite being the seed underdog.
Okay, that’s a mean enough intro…Rutgers fans didn’t wait 30 years for this kind of treatment!
Clemson on Offense: The Tiger offense is keyed by the multi-positional skill-set of big man Aamir Simms, who is capable of facilitating from the block, as a short roller, or as an initiator at the top of the key:
He leads Clemson in scoring, rebounds, and assists, and his importance cannot be overstated. Rutgers likely throws the towering Myles Johnson at him, though Simms’ ability to play on the perimeter and attack Johnson in space could be an issue. The alternative is worse, though, because Simms is typically paired with a stretch four in Hunter Tyson.
Because of its offensive struggles, Clemson has a reputation of being a team of non-shooters, but that’s actually not quite true. Most of the Tigers’ primary rotation willingly launches from deep (Clemson ranks 40th nationally in 3PA rate), and several of them are quite proficient, namely Nick Honor, Al-Amir Dawes, and Alex Hemenway. None of them are true high-volume snipers, though, so the Tigers are prone to cold nights. Rutgers defends the arc fairly well for being such a massive team, and unsurprisingly, that’s a smart decision by Pikiell: he wants to filter opponents into the waiting arms of Johnson and Cliff Omoruyi at the rim.
Rutgers on Offense: Well, this went well for a while! The Scarlet Knights were a juggernaut on this end at the beginning of the year, but that quickly devolved into the typical grind that we’ve come to know from Pikiell’s teams. That nosedive coincided almost exactly with Ron Harper’s decline from “superhuman scoring star” to “solid Big Ten bruising wing,” as the wide-body forward began the year on an unsustainable hot streak from the perimeter. Geo Baker’s resurgence brought a corresponding bump to the offense in late January, but he is extremely up and down, as well.
I’ve ultimately settled on this team’s most important offensive player being Jacob Young, a bowling ball of a guard who, at the very least, makes sh*t happen. It’s not always good sh*t – not by a long shot – but he’s the only one that can get the Scarlet Knights’ offense out of the quagmires in which it often finds itself. Pikiell lets Young run a ton of pick-and-roll, content to deal with the erratic results that ensue, but Clemson is an elite pick-and-roll defense thanks in large part to the versatility of Simms, who can switch onto ball-handlers and guard in space.
Young’s speed also sparks the transition attack, another area where Pikiell has relaxed the restrictions. Clemson’s defense is stout in that regard, though, mostly eschewing the offensive glass to get back and force foes to execute in the half court.
Key Factor(s): Rutgers is not a great offensive rebounding team, but Johnson is one of the best individual glass eaters in the country, and he could be a one-man wrecking crew in this matchup. Simms is great at a lot of things, but he’s not a dominant rebounder, and he’s giving up a few inches and pounds to the bigger Johnson. In what should be a mucky half court slop fest, Johnson stealing a couple tip-ins, put-backs or other easy second chance opportunities could prove decisive.
Final Prediction: I feel like it’s going to be a disappointment to find that after all of that, I may not even officially back the under here. I can’t make a strong argument as to why not, I just have a gut worry that this weirdly sneaks over at 66-63 or something. That said, I am going to back the Scarlet Knights, in large part because I trust Steve Pikiell a little more than Brad Brownell and not-at-Littlejohn Clemson. Just hit a few perimeter jumpers, Scarlet Knights…
(2) Houston vs. (15) Cleveland St.
Initial Thoughts: Extremely impressive year out of both teams to be where they’re at right now. Just 20 months ago, Cleveland State was dealing with a mass roster exodus amidst a rebellion against Coach Dennis Felton, bringing in Dennis Gates in late July with little chance of assembling a fully functioning roster. With some grit and a little luck (ok, a lot – #1 in the country, per KenPom), the Vikings scaled the Horizon mountain in his second season.
Houston, meanwhile, surprisingly lost Nate Hinton to the NBA last offseason, Fabian White to a torn ACL for most of the year (he’s back, but nowhere near himself quite yet), and AAC preseason Player of the Year Caleb Mills to the transfer portal midseason…and remained a top 10 team. Kelvin Sampson is good at this.
Houston on Offense: Boy, did Quentin Grimes find the right fit after a shaky freshman season at Kansas. He was very good last year, but Grimes has ascended into the stratosphere as a junior, scoring in every way possible en route to AAC Player of the Year honors (who needs Caleb Mills, after all). Along with Marcus Sasser, DeJon Jarreau, and Tramon Mark, the Cougars have a quadrumvirate of lethal perimeter players capable of getting their own shot.
CSU can guard that somewhat, as they themselves play a deep stable of guards and wings around one big man, though the Vikings’ scheme is heavily geared towards forcing jump shots – a dangerous game against Grimes and Sasser in particular. CSU will also mix in some zone, but Houston has obliterated zones this year.
That brings me to one of the biggest mismatches in the entire first round: Houston’s relentless offensive rebounding against CSU’s feeble work on the defensive glass. CSU’s four-guard and zone looks will exacerbate what is already a glaring issue, and this could end up being a “Houston grabs 55% of its misses” type of game.
CSU is also an awful PnR defense (16th percentile against ball-handlers), and Houston can comfortably unleash any of those four at a given time.
Cleveland St. on Offense: As if things weren’t dicey enough in the above section, here’s where I start to get really nervous. How does Cleveland State score, I ask inquisitively?
Houston’s defense is only 16th in AdjDE, but that’s slightly misleading. The Cougars take away everything at the rim and swarm you beyond the arc, and the only true weakness is that their boundless aggression often leads to a free throw parade. CSU does not get to the line frequently, though, and they lay bricks when they do: 66.9% from the stripe, 291st nationally. If you can’t punish Houston for its foul transgressions, you’re in trouble.
Cleveland State’s shot selection amps up my concerns here. The Vikings’ perimeter players are, um, extremely confident, to put it gently. Torrey Patton (28.7% from beyond the arc), D’Moi Hodge (29.2%), and Jayson Woodrich (30.8%) have not earned that confidence, but all three can heat up on the right night. Tre Gomillion is a bulldog of a guard, and Big Al Eichelberger has become a weapon off the bench as he’s gotten healthier, but none really have an edge over their Houston counterparts.
Houston’s tight-knit defense will often give the perception of surrendering an open three, but the gargantuan length of Jarreau, Grimes, and Mark eats up that airspace in a hurry. The offensive glass could help, as Houston is not as sound on that end as one might expect.
Key Factor(s): The rebounding mismatch is obviously huge, but it’s really just an embodiment of what makes me so concerned for Cleveland State here. The Vikings’ best attribute is how frickin’ hard they play every single minute of every single night under Gates…but now they play an opponent who plays just as hard and just as physical, only they’re way more talented? That’s a major alarm for me.
This game could also feature some 3P regression on both sides, as both teams rank inordinately high in defensive 3P% despite giving up high-ish volume. That’s less of a concern for Houston, though, as the Cougars always rank among the country’s elite in that category under Sampson.
Final Prediction: My numbers would greatly prefer I take Cleveland State here, but the matchup – both in terms of Houston potentially lighting it up from deep and the horror show we’re going to see on the offensive glass on that end – just push me too far the other way. CSU is never going to quit, though, meaning the back door could stay open until the final buzzer. This is also one of the rare low totals where I’d lean towards the over, even though I’m not entirely sure how Cleveland State hits 60 points.
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