-Jim Root
Note: Since this preview was published, Allen Flanigan sustained an Achilles injury and will miss 12-14 weeks (as of early September). That makes for a difficult recovery timetable during SEC play, likely knocking the Tigers down 5-10 slots nationally.
Key Returners: Allen Flanigan, Devan Cambridge, Jaylin Williams, Chris Moore, Dylan Cardwell
Key Losses: Sharife Cooper (pro), Justin Powell (transfer), JT Thor (pro), Jamal Johnson (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Walker Kessler (UNC), Jabari Smith, K.D. Johnson (Georgia), Wendell Green (Eastern Kentucky), Zep Jasper (Charleston)
Lineup:
Outlook: After three straight seasons of elevating Auburn basketball into a stratosphere it hasn’t seen since 1999, Bruce Pearl finally proved mortal last year, sinking back into the morass in the middle of the SEC. The Tigers were playing out a self-imposed postseason ban, so they could not have gone dancing regardless, but a key injury to the now-departed Justin Powell and the eligibility saga of Sharife Cooper made sure that the ban was merely a footnote on a sub-standard season. An unsatisfied Pearl (and his staff) attacked the transfer portal hard in the offseason, immediately re-raising the team’s talent level and expectations in one fell swoop.
To meet those expectations, though, this team must fix the glaring weakness of last year’s squad: a sieve of a transition defense that allowed opponents to get easy bucket after easy bucket. Auburn’s own turnover woes (315th nationally in turnover rate, by the far the worst mark under Pearl) fueled foes’ fire, and the extremely young roster simply did not matchup well at all in the open court:
LSU’s Cam Thomas goes from directly under the basket while grabbing the defensive rebound all the way to the rim without getting challenged until a soft foul as he finishes the lay-up. Brutally bad.
And that one is off a made basket! But alright, it’s only two gifs, so how about some numbers? Hoop-Math’s data does a pretty excellent job of spelling out how severe the drop-off was:
Giving up more transition chances while also allowing those shots to be significantly more efficient is how you end up tied for 10th in the SEC. Some of this is by design in the Tigers’ scheme, as Pearl heavily emphasizes that his bigs attack the offensive glass, and Auburn’s offense is certainly partial to playing an up-tempo game. But it’s possible to play at that tempo without getting gashed on the defensive end (as proven by past Auburn teams!), and Pearl will hope the personnel changes help in that regard.
For one, the returning trio of Allen Flanigan, Jaylin Williams, and Devan Cambridge all have an additional year of experience, and Charleston transfer Zep Jasper finally adds a senior to a team that had none last year (and would not have had any this year). Pearl will also hope for better ball security from the new backcourt of Jasper, Wendell Green (Eastern Kentucky) and KD Johnson (Georgia), the latter two of whom played at frenetic paces at their previous stops – though those two are only sophomores.
With Green and Johnson helming the attack, Pearl likely keeps the pedal to the floor, as both excel in the open court and have speed to burn. Green was strangely underrated coming out of high school despite being the floor general for powerhouse La Lumiere, and he immediately became one of the best guards in the OVC. Granted, he is small, but he showed a penchant for knocking down tough triples, setting up teammates, and swiping steals to ignite the Colonels’ high octane offense. All of those attributes should translate well to the Auburn style of play - provided he can handle the stiff increase in competition.
Johnson, meanwhile, is a physical guard who will live at the free throw line in Pearl’s downhill system. After being declared eligible in mid-January, he quickly asserted himself as an offensive alpha, ranking 5th in the entire SEC in usage and drawing fouls at the 2nd-highest rate (finishing behind only departed Auburn draft pick Sharife Cooper). Johnson also led the SEC in steal rate, and he and Green make a formidable - if a tad undersized - backcourt. The shot-making from those two may not be at Jared Harper/Bryce Brown levels, but the two should thrive with the freedom that Pearl’s up-tempo onslaught provides.
That creates an interesting fit for Walker Kessler, the jewel of the Tigers’ transfer class, after he was mostly buried behind UNC’s laughably talented frontcourt. He’s mobile for his size, and the Tar Heels’ tempo certainly gave him chances to show that:
Still, Pearl may experiment with playing slower while Kessler anchors the lineup, somewhat akin to the way he treated Austin Wiley during his Auburn career. Kessler can be a truly dominant force in the paint on both ends (he’ll gobble up the offensive glass here), but wearing him out and not allowing him to set up shop on either end via quick shots might undermine his value somewhat.
He’ll play alongside both Williams, an athletic forward that proved to be a devastating finisher inside with a burgeoning perimeter game, and freshman phenom Jabari Smith, a smooth, lanky big man with range out beyond the arc. Both players have the versatility necessary to fully weaponize Kessler while playing alongside him, and Smith’s NBA upside will tantalize fans and scouts alike. Quasi-smallball lineups with Smith at center could be devastating, as his fluid movement and immense skill level should overwhelm most opponents.
Still, a ton of Pearl’s half court possessions come down to the creative ability of his guards, as they’re often afforded immense freedom in both isolation and pick-and-roll settings. That puts a big burden a Green and Johnson (and Jasper, to a lesser extent). He was impressive as a freshman alpha on a contender in the OVC, but his lackluster finishing inside the arc hints that SEC length could bother him. Johnson, meanwhile, entered college as a point guard, but he was primarily tasked with scoring while paired with Sahvir Wheeler. His turnover output (34) nearly doubled his assist tally (19), but he flashed plenty of potential once the NCAA released its shackles. Jasper looks more like a solid depth piece, capable of knocking down a couple shots or holding down backup point guard minutes if Pearl chooses to end the “Flanigan at point guard” conversion.
Flanigan, for his part, was the team’s most consistent player last year, starting every game and producing all over the stat sheet. He struggled with ball security while sometimes miscast as a primary ball-handler, but his size and skill should keep him as a lineup fixture. His classmate Cambridge is one of the streakiest shooters on the planet thanks to an elongated left-to-right release; he will likely be best served as added scoring punch off the bench.
Let’s close by circling things back to defense. Pearl’s defenses are always flush with athletes and shot-blockers (top 30 nationally in block rate for five straight years), but that’s usually complemented by either 1) forcing a multitude of turnovers or 2) rebounding competently on defense. Last year’s squad did neither of those things, and when coupled with the transition issues, that dropped Auburn outside of KenPom’s top 100 defenses for the first time since 2017. Kessler and Smith reinforce the Tigers’ paint dominance (plus depth with Dylan Cardwell and Babatunde Akingbola), and Chris Moore is yet another big-bodied wing, meaning size will not be a problem.
Pressure-wise, Green and Johnson both had higher steal rates than anyone on the previous Auburn roster, portending some improvement in the turnover-forcing department, as well. Expect to see more pressing and less zone from the Tigers, as Pearl desperately looked to plug last year’s defensive holes in any way possible.
Bottom Line: With the postseason ban having been served, Auburn enters this year with a refreshed outlook. Pearl has reloaded the roster with transfers and a lottery pick recruit, and the team’s overwhelming depth and athleticism should give most opponents fits. Structuring the team’s identity will be a slight challenge, as the Tigers’ scoring arsenal tilts more towards the frontcourt than in years past, but it’s not a problem, per se. As the defense improves, so do the Tigers, and we fully expect to see Charles Barkley’s boys back on the dance floor in March as a result.