-Jim Root

Key Returners: Paul Scruggs (extra year), Zach Freemantle, Nate Johnson (extra year), Colby Jones, Dwon Odom, Adam Kunkel, Ben Stanley (injury)
Key Losses: Jason Carter (transfer), Bryan Griffin
Key Newcomers: Jack Nunge (Iowa), Jerome Hunter (Indiana), Cesare Edwards, Elijah Tucker

Lineup:

Outlook: Let’s go with a visual to kick off this preview – I think it tells the story better than I could:

Yes, Chris Mack was a legend, but Steele’s era has been well below that of Sean Miller and Thad Matta before him, as well. Over the past 20 years, the Musketeers have been outside of KenPom’s top 60 just four times; two of those came in Steele’s three-year tenure, compared to zero of the nine top 25 finishes. Steele is now 23-26 in Big East play, going 6-7 last year while somehow avoiding both Villanova (yay!) and DePaul (dang). The two-game winning streak in the Crosstown Shootout helps, but buying out the bar at Dana Gardens after knocking off Cincinnati is only part of the job description (albeit a critical one).

Perhaps the biggest area of struggle for last year’s Muskies was simply consistency. Per Haslametrics, Xavier ranked 346th (of 347) in the venerable site’s consistency metric, exhibiting how up-and-down the team’s performances could be. No stretch better illustrated that than the season’s final four games, when Xavier knocked off Creighton to put itself in solid position for an at-large bid, only to drop the final three games of the year against increasingly meager competition (@Georgetown, @Marquette, Butler at the Big East Tournament).

A couple easy culprits exist for that unreliability. First, Xavier dealt with multiple COVID interruptions, including a 5-week stretch from mid-January to mid-February where the Musketeers managed to play just one game (not to mention the limited practices). Even his most fervent detractors cannot blame Steele for that. The other, more pressing concern was the inconsistency of the rotation. Injuries are partially to blame, but roles never seemed properly ironed out for the Muskies.

That concern will linger into this year until proven otherwise, as at least 11 players can reasonably expect to earn minutes. The returns of Paul Scruggs and Nate Johnson for extra years were no doubt welcomed with open arms, but Steele will have a hard time keeping all of KyKy Tandy, Adam Kunkel, Colby Jones, and Dwon Odom happy now. The frontcourt is equally crowded, with Zach Freemantle the clear foundation, Big Ten transfers Jack Nunge and Jerome Hunter bringing some offensive pop, and returners Ben Stanley and Deionte Miles both having flashed significant potential before being derailed by injuries last year. It’s not a bad problem to have, but it is one that likely needs to be sorted out for Xavier to hit its ceiling.

And with the return of Scruggs and Freemantle to anchor the team, the ceiling does appear reasonably high: for example, BartTorvik.com has the Musketeers 20th in the country. Scruggs has 118 games (84 starts) under his belt already, and that kind of steadying presence in the backcourt undoubtedly stokes the optimism around this squad. He took on a much larger role as a creator last season, nearly doubling his assist rate (from 17.6% to 32.0%, 44th nationally) while continuing to be a steady scoring threat.

Freemantle, meanwhile, emerged into a force in the COVID-shortened campaign, dominating on the glass and as a cutter and roll man within the team’s offense. He excels at finding pockets of space in the paint, carving out areas for drop-off passes and finishing adeptly once he gets the rock:

His 76% conversion rate at the rim helped Xavier shoot 66.4% as a team there, the 18th-highest rate in the entire country per Hoop-Math.

As in that play, the ball movement was often a strength for the Musketeers, as Steele continues to use motion principles while largely shunning isolations. Xavier ranked 9th nationally in assist rate, according to KenPom, while finishing 321st in possessions that ended in isolation, per Synergy. That resulted in struggles against more prepared teams at times, as the lack of individual creation allowed foes to load up on Xavier’s initial actions. Scruggs has the talent to offset that, but perhaps allowing he and Odom to operate more in ball screens – where they excelled last year – might vary the offense and keep opponents guessing.  

Steele often had to make choices with his lineups. Play more shooting with Johnson, Tandy, and/or Kunkel, or gravitate towards the defensive side of the ball with Odom and Jones? Johnson was a fireball from deep for most of the year (over 50% until a 2-for-17 stretch before getting hurt), while Tandy and Kunkel both hunt shots and command defenses’ respect (despite Kunkel’s cold shooting this year). The two youngsters, meanwhile, are more deferential on the offensive end and feisty on defense. Steele must hope that multiple players in that group emerge as definitive two-way assets.

Because of its ability to take care of the ball and finish inside, Xavier’s offense was the strength of the team; unfortunately, the defensive end of the floor kept the Musketeers out of the Big Dance.

Stylistically, Steele’s teams have remained consistent with Mack’s: majority man-to-man with some zone mixed in as a change of pace, with one noticeable drop-off – Xavier has gone from a terrific defensive rebounding team to just an average one:

Freemantle is a wonderful anchor, but he needs more help from his friends; if Miles or Stanley prove to be glass-eaters, that might help them earn minutes quickly.

Youth and a relative lack of continuity plagued Xavier at times, as three freshmen and two transfers were key parts of the rotation, but that excuse is gone this year: Steele’s lineup returns over 80% of its minutes this year, one of only three power conference schools that can make that claim (Butler and Purdue are the others – credit Bart Torvik). The scheme and rotations should be second nature to most of the roster, though Steele will likely need to properly stagger lineups to avoid weak lineups on this end. Kunkel in particular needs to be used intelligently:

Going from the OVC to the Big East is a massive step up, to be sure, but 19 points per 100 possessions worse on the defensive end is a staggering split.

Bottom Line: This is a pivotal year for Travis Steele. He has yet to make the NCAA Tournament in three years (Bracket Matrix had Xavier as the first team out in 2020 before any bid stealers in Championship Week); Xavier has not gone that long without a Big Dance invite since 1980-1982 (!). A fourth straight empty year could mean big trouble in the Queen City. Fortunately, he has the roster to get there, and the power void behind Villanova atop the Big East this season is beckoning. We expect the Muskies to get there, but it will not be a simple stroll through the (Dana) garden.