-Jim Root

Key Returners: D’Mitrik Trice, Nate Reuvers, Brad Davison, Micah Potter, Aleem Ford, Tyler Wahl
Key Losses: Brevin Pritzl
Key Newcomers: Ben Carlson, Johnny Davis, Lorne Bowman, Steven Crowl, Jordan Davis

Lineup:

Outlook: Will the real Bucky Badger please stand up?

Wisconsin was an enigma for much of last season, starting the year 13-10 (6-6 in the Big Ten) and largely fulfilling the conference’s identity of “win at home (10-1), scuffle on the road/neutral (3-9).” Kobe King left the team in late January, alleging that the coaching staff treated him like a “servant” and generally expressing a dissatisfaction with Coach Greg Gard’s approach. Wisconsin then lost two difficult road games without him (at Iowa and at Minnesota) before suddenly ripping off eight straight wins to close the season, capturing a share of the Big Ten regular season title and earning the 1-seed in the hypothetical Big Ten Tournament.

The burning question, then, is whether the Badgers can continue their stellar play from the season’s final month. Was it simply a “lightning in a bottle” situation where the remaining players rallied against external doubters, banding together to shock pundits time and time again? How much of it was due to a favorable schedule (five home games, one road game at lowly Nebraska, another at Badgers’ happy place Indiana)? Or did Gard and the team strike gold on a lineup and style of play that married perfectly with the Badgers’ identity, allowing them to raise the team’s ceiling long-term?

Let’s first make the case for it being a sustainable trend. The Badger offense has the pieces to optimize the swing offense, most notably big men that can stretch the floor from the perimeter. The swing’s inherent interchanges mean that the offense is constantly inverted, with forwards and centers dotting the perimeter and a guard in the post, and few teams sport the kind of frontcourt shooters that Wisconsin has in Micah Potter, Nate Reuvers, and Aleem Ford. After sitting the first semester, Potter emerged into a major weapon off the bench, canning 45% of his triples and scoring against mismatches in the post. Reuvers is steadier and the best defensive player of the bunch, and the two centers complement each other well. Strangely, though, the offense faltered when they shared the court (small sample):

Given that Potter and Reuvers can reasonably be called the team’s two best players, expect to see Gard try to play them together more frequently. He’ll need to solve the offensive question marks that come with playing two “centers,” though, even if both can hit open threes.

Ford, meanwhile, rediscovered his offensive game after an injury-marred 2018-19 campaign. Freshman Ben Carlson may also command some minutes thanks to his strong frame and smooth (if flat-footed) perimeter jumper, and sophomore Tyler Wahl is the latest in a long line of do-everything role player forwards (Mike Bruesewitz, Joe Krabbenhoft, etc.).

On the perimeter, D’Mitrik Trice excelled as Gard continued to use more pick-and-roll than typical Badger squads. Both he and Brad Davison adapted to this well, making the right reads as Gard placed the ball in his veteran guards’ hands more frequently. Trice (85th percentile as a PnR ball-handler) and Davison (82nd percentile) both displayed the ability to create for themselves and others when the situation called for it. Gard has also been infusing more Bobby Knight motion principles into the Badgers’ offense, using more staggers and flare screens to make switching more difficult and give his guards the freedom to attack. Here’s Brevin Pritzl coming off a staggered pin-down and curling it for a tough lay-up:

On the other end, the Badgers were (unsurprisingly) an excellent defensive team (17th nationally in AdjDE for the full season). Gard has continued the conservative, gap-controlling man-to-man defense with which Bo Ryan had so much success, and Wisconsin simultaneously takes away the three-point arc, ranking 40th in defensive 3PA rate. Reuvers is an excellent rim protector, helping the Badgers limit opponents’ effectiveness at the rim, and Wahl appears to be emerging as a multi-positional stopper. Davison will continue to be the shit-disturbing pest that he is, igniting the team with drawn charges and pesky hands; while I disagree with his methods at times, he has the undeniable “Aaron Craft” effect of raising the team’s defensive level.

Now, the bad news. The only real roster loss is Pritzl, and though this may seem relatively minor compared to the team’s “big guns,” Pritzl’s shooting and defense were key elements to Wisconsin’s success. On his NABC webinar, Gard also referred to Pritzl as the team’s best cutter, a crucial trait in the swing offense. Further data supporting his importance: Wisconsin went 7-0 in games that Pritzl started, as well as 15-0 in games where he scored 9+ points. Johnny Davis and Lorne Bowman will try to fill the third guard role, and though both have potential (Davis in particular is an impressive wing athlete), neither offers the floor-bending shooting prowess that Pritzl had. Trevor Anderson is a fine depth piece, but the redshirt senior is not a difference-maker.

Another key element of the Wisconsin style is patience, which means scoring late in the shot clock, an area in which Trice struggled last year. Like Jordan Taylor, Bronson Koenig, Trevon Hughes, and many others before them, Trice is asked to create late the shot clock, but per Synergy, he ranked in the 18th percentile in such situations (<4 seconds remaining). He’s a strong off-the-dribble shooter, so this may trend upwards, but it’s concerning against top-shelf competition.

Additionally, Wisconsin’s defense wasn’t always as lockdown as one might expect, ranking just 5th in the league in KenPom’s AdjDE during Big Ten play. Potter was often seen as the culprit, though his on/off numbers – as seen in the above graphic – are actually quite friendly. The Badgers got a little leaky on the defensive glass against B1G foes, and the lack of high-level athletes showed in the dearth of defensive “events” (blocks, steals).

Bottom Line: After drawing the ire of many Badger fans following King’s departure and a quick accumulation of double-digit losses, Gard has completely flipped the narrative, returning a huge chunk of the conference co-champs and adding one of the school’s best-ever recruiting classes (with an even better one coming in 2021). The 2020 Big Ten Coach of the Year now faces high expectations, but there’s plenty of reason to believe this team can build on its February run and deliver on its promise. Finding a productive third guard will be crucial, but this roster’s experience and fit to the system means there’s an extremely high floor, with top-10 potential if Potter continues his ascent to stardom.