-Jim Root

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Drew Timme, Gonzaga
Coach of the Year: Mark Few, Gonzaga
Newcomer of the Year: Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga
Freshman of the Year: Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga

NOTE: I know that the WCC always does a 10-man First Team All-Conference, but I happen to think that’s idiotic because a basketball team with 10 players on the court would be chaos. Until teams play with more than five players, my all-conference teams will have five players, always. A man’s got to have a code.

Tier 1

1. Gonzaga

See full preview here: #1 in our Top-40 countdown

Tier 2

2. BYU

Key Returners: Alex Barcello, Connor Harding, Gavin Baxter, Kolby Lee
Key Losses: Yoeli Childs, Jake Toolson, TJ Haws, Dalton Nixon, Zac Seljaas
Key Newcomers: Brandon Averette (Utah Valley), Matt Haarms (Purdue), Wyatt Lowell (Utah Valley), Richard Harward (Utah Valley), Caleb Lohner, Gideon George (JUCO), Hunter Erickson

Lineup:

Outlook: I mentioned this in my San Diego State preview, but BYU ranks right up there with the Aztecs and Dayton in terms of teams that have the biggest beefs with that nefarious coronavirus. Last year was arguably the Cougars’ best squad in the past 25 years (apologies to Jimmer), and BYU had as good a chance as ever at making the program’s first Final Four (and beyond?). Instead, five terrific seniors saw their careers end without getting a shot in March, with program staples Yoeli Childs and TJ Haws moving on to what will surely be profitable professional careers. Thus, I feel justified in doing this: go F yourself, COVID-19.

BYU’s identity was entrenched in one key factor: it was the best shooting team in the entire country last year, and by a fairly comfortable margin at that. The Cougars led the country in three-point percentage, shooting 41.9% from deep, and the difference between BYU and 2nd-place Oregon was the same as the difference between Oregon and 21st-ranked Stanford. The five departing seniors combined to make 226 triples at 41.2%, taking with them a huge chunk of the team’s shooting prowess – but not all of it. Alex Barcello and Connor Harding both shot over 45% from deep, meaning the floor should still have solid spacing around what will be a vastly different roster construction.

After having one of the country’s best backcourts and a mega-versatile scoring forward, this year’s Cougars skew heavily towards true big men. After returning late in the year from injury, Gavin Baxter ended up starting the team’s final game, taking over for the 240-pound Kolby Lee, who had started 27 games to that point. Two of Coach Mark Pope’s big man pupils followed him from Utah Valley, and both Richard Harward and Wyatt Lowell will battle for playing time this year. Pope also secured a commitment this offseason from Purdue grad transfer Matt Haarms, and he’ll certainly be expecting to start. The 6’10 Lowell is the key, as he adds a stretch element alongside the other bigs (Haarms thinks he does too, but that’s…debatable).

Because of the way the roster’s talent tilts towards the frontcourt, Pope will likely tweak the team’s offensive approach this year. The Cougars predominantly ran continuity ball screen action last year, putting the ball in Haws and Jake Toolson’s hands and letting them make plays going downhill. Barcello is a capable ball-handler, and another Utah Valley transfer, point guard Brandon Averette, will be able to make some plays as well, but this team is not as dynamic in the backcourt. Jesse Wade is a wild card: he was a highly-regarded recruit at Gonzaga in 2017, but he hasn’t played much basketball since, so it’s tough to count on him to play a key role. Once Childs came back from a nine-game suspension last year, Pope funneled a ton of the action through Childs via post ups, pick-and-pops, and feeding the roll man, and that may skew even higher this year considering the guards cannot create for themselves to the same degree that Haws and Toolson could.

Baxter and Lee are mostly just finishers, but Harward flashed some real offensive upside at UVU, and Haarms left West Lafayette in pursuit of a larger offensive role, so seeing those two guys function as go-to options would not be a surprise. Considering how outrageously elite the Cougars’ shooters were, it’s reasonable that BYU ranked 344th nationally in percentage of shots at the rim; expect that to rise, as well. One area in particular that Haarms should excel is the frequent dribble handoffs Pope runs in an effort to get his ball-handlers going downhill. Haarms is familiar with such actions, and he can be crafty at times:

He’s not a traditional post scorer, but he has decent touch and an obvious size advantage over most of his opponents, so Pope will find a way to make him effective.

The offense was one of extremes, maximizing all possessions by taking care of the ball and getting shots every time down – a smart strategy considering, you know, how good they were at shooting. That meant completely ignoring the offensive glass, though, and the Cougars never got to the free throw line. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more distinct offensive four factors than BYU’s:

The defensive end is telling, as well – BYU plays conservatively, focusing instead on keeping foes off the stripe and cleaning the glass. Pope’s scheme dictates ideal shot selection, forcing mid-range jumpers and limiting the more valuable looks at the rim and from downtown. Per Hoop-Math, BYU’s defense surrendered the 2nd-most mid-range jumpers in the country.

Where Haarms indisputably helps this Cougar team is with its rim protection. Without any hint of a true shot-blocker on the roster and lacking length and athleticism on the perimeter, foes shot a staggering 68.7% at the rim, ranking BYU’s defense 348th in the country in that metric. Similarly, BYU ranked 334th in block rate (5.4%); adding the 7’3 Haarms completely shifts that dynamic. He blocked more shots in each of his freshman (79) and sophomore (74) years than BYU did all of last season (67), and he’ll use his length and solid anticipation to consistently deny would-be scorers. Harward is no Haarms, but he would have been the best shot-blocker on last year’s BYU team, so he adds a strong backup option behind the Purdue transfer (or gives Pope a scary twin tower look).

Similar issues will crop up with perimeter defense, although Averette, JUCO transfers Gideon George and Spencer Johnson, and freshmen Caleb Lohner and boost the athleticism somewhat. The backcourt/wing rotation needs depth, so they (and fellow freshmen Dallin Hall and Hunter Erickson) will all have chances to earn minutes right away. Pope likes to have depth and competition for minutes, and he’s done a great job building that quickly in Provo.

Bottom Line: It’s unfair to expect BYU to replicate the magic of last season, especially without the same kind of perimeter scoring talent. Barcello and Averette are no slouches, but the Haws/Toolson combination is impossible to replicate. Without those two and Childs, the offense is bound to regress, but the massive class of newcomers may raise the ceiling defensively. Pope is one of the best in this business, so it’s easy to trust him to make things work, despite a roster that’s seemingly slanted towards the frontcourt. The Cougars have every chance to be Gonzaga’s top contender again, although it’s unclear if that equates to NCAA Tournament participation.

3. San Francisco

Key Returners: Jamaree Bouyea, Khalil Shabazz, Dzimitry Ryuny, Josh Kunen
Key Losses: Jimbo Lull, Charles Minlend (transfer), Jordan Ratinho
Key Newcomers: Damari Milstead (Grand Canyon), Isaiah Hawthorne (redshirt), Julian Rishwain (Boston College), Samba Kane (JUCO), Anthony Roy, Maj Dusanic

Lineup:

Outlook: The surge of San Francisco hoops continues! The Dons did not skip a beat in 2020 after losing the brilliant Kyle Smith to Washington State, as rookie head coach Todd Golden stepped in and won 20+ games, giving USF a streak of four straight such seasons. The foundation has been built for sustained success, and even though three full-time starters have left the Bay Area, the Dons have the goods to push that streak to five.

Golden and his staff gained national notoriety for their innovative use of analytics, particularly with the use of the one-and-one free throw rule, consistently choosing to play the numbers and foul foes with questionable track records at the line as a way of gaining an extra possession themselves. Sometimes it worked, others it did not, but the outside-the-box mindset is a great way to gain incremental advantages within the game. It’s not just micro decisions like that, though – Golden clearly understands the macro advantages of things like shot selection, limiting inefficient mid-range jumpers on offense and making a concerted effort to force them on the other end. USF ranked 10th nationally in “mid-range differential,” a stat I made up that measures the difference between 2P jumpers taken and allowed:

Part of the credit there goes to his two primary ball-handlers, Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz, both of whom are clearly on board with the team approach. Both took over 83% of their shots at the rim or from beyond the arc, setting the tone for the team’s overall efficiency, and both finished well at the rim despite the tough shots over size they often took as a result. Shabazz will be in an expanded role this year after serving as a livewire bench presence last year; his quickness on both ends (8th nationally in steal rate!) made him a great spark plug next to the steadier Bouyea.

This year, a third smallish guard joins them in the backcourt, as Grand Canyon transfer Damari Milstead adds even more speed and creation. Golden faces the dilemma of how frequently he should play all three together (including in the starting lineup), and part of that decision depends on the how one feels about Julian Rishwain. The California native is a bigger shooter and a nice complement to the other three, though he struggled mightily at BC.

The Dons may also go bigger at times, with 6’8 Isaiah Hawthorne or 6’9 Dzmitry Ryuny moving out to the perimeter. Hawthorne spent last year honing his game and adding weight while redshirting, but the staff has high expectations for the athletic ‘tweener. Ryuny, on the other hand, is a lights-out perimeter shooter, having hit 42.0% of his career threes thus far. Golden places a high value on floor spacing, so being able to place Rishwain and Ryuny around the perimeter while Bouyea, Shabazz, and Milstead use their quickness to get into the paint would be a luxury.

With two jitterbug guards and a bevy of shooting, it made sense to run a ton of pick-and-roll last year, and Shabazz in particular was devastating as a scorer (96th percentile, per Synergy). Josh Kunen and JUCO transfer Samba Kane should both be serviceable roll men, though neither is the pick-and-pop threat that Remu Raitanen was last season, so the ball screens will mostly be to score or dish to the perimeter. The Dons also lose their only true post scorer in Jimbo Lull; big Jimbo was a legitimate one-on-one threat by the time his career was over, and USF will be even more perimeter-oriented with Kunen, Kane, and Taavi Jurkatamm occupying the big man minutes.

Lull was also a rock on the defensive end, eating on the defensive glass and serving as the closest thing the team had to a rim protector. That makes the addition of Kane, who began his career at Illinois, a pivotal one. Kane is bouncier and can play more above the rim, adding a wholly unique element to the Dons’ defensive shell. If he can erase shots at the rim with any level of consistency, it will allow Shabazz, Bouyea, and Milstead to get even more aggressive on the perimeter. USF already ranked 16th nationally in limiting opponents’ assist rate, and forcing foes to score over a behemoth like Kane would only boost the already strong defensive numbers. The last thing USF needs is a little help from Lady Luck: opponents shot 37.6% from deep last year, ranking the Dons’ 3P% defense in the bottom 20 in the country, despite making a concerted effort to run shooters off the arc. Regression towards the mean (33.3%) would be enormously helpful.

Bottom Line: With three speedy guards and solid depth across the roster, the Dons should play faster than last year’s 155th-ranked tempo; Golden certainly knows the value of transition possessions. Figuring out the best way to deploy those guards is a top priority, while Kane’s impact in the paint could be a major X-factor defensively. We know that USF will be constantly searching for incremental edges, statistical or otherwise, and anything gained in the margins will sum with a talented roster and smart staff to give the Dons a squad capable of rising all the way to 2nd in the WCC. And if anyone had the formula to steal one from Gonzaga last year, it was the Dons…

4. St. Mary’s

Key Returners: Matthias Tass (injury), Tommy Kuhse, Dan Fotu, Alex Ducas
Key Losses: Jordan Ford, Malik Fitts, Tanner Krebs, Kristers Zoriks (pro)
Key Newcomers: Jabe Mullins, Judah Brown, Leemet Bockler, Mitchell Saxen, Matthew van Komen (Utah)***

*** - needs waiver to play right away

Lineup:

Outlook: Precious few coaches can claim to have such an incredible run of consistency at a school that doesn’t even rank in the top 100 in basketball budgets: in the last 13 years, Saint Mary’s has not fallen below 67th in KenPom’s final rankings. Think about that! He continuously does more (sometimes much more) with less, using a tried-and-true style both on the court (patient offenses, conservative defenses) and off (major international flavor in his recruiting). For a while, the one knock on him was his Downy-soft scheduling, but he’s shown quite a bit of progress in that area recently.

Note: coincidentally, his old policy of not leaving the state of California in the non-conference portion would be a terrific strategy in a pandemic-infested world.

Seemingly every season, the Gaels have a star guard through whom they can run the offense. Bennett always runs a ton of pick-and-roll, and having a savvy maestro has been an annual boon The backcourt baton pass has become a glorious tradition under Bennett: from Patty Mills to Mickey McConnell to Matthew Dellavedova to Emmett Naar to Jordan Ford. The white-hot burning question for this team, though: who takes that baton from Ford? Kristers Zoriks seemed like the high-upside option, but the Latvian opted to start a pro career in Europe. Is it Tommy Kuhse, the former walk-on who emerged as a key complementary piece the last two years? Is it Logan Johnson, the former Cincinnati recruit who immediately fell out of the rotation last year after starting the first four games? Or could it shockingly be New Zealander Quinn Clinton, a bit player in 2018-19 who missed last year with a foot injury? The most likely answer is probably none of the above, with the Gaels instead taking a by-committee approach and tweaking their style slightly.

The only gap in the above guard chain was in 2014, a team that remained afloat via the dominance of one Brad Waldow, a 260-pound wrecking ball in the paint (Stephen Holt deserves a nod for his yeoman’s work at point guard, as well). That should be the model for this year’s squad, with Matthias Tass functioning as the team’s fulcrum inside. He missed the final 20 games of the year after tearing an ACL right before Christmas, and his health will be something to monitor leading up to the start of the season. When healthy, he’s a skilled post scorer and passer who can play the Waldow/Jock Landale role as a featured interior weapon and on-ball screener.

When he went down, Dan Fotu and Kyle Bowen got some valuable minutes, and while both are stout defenders, they don’t offer anywhere near the offensive upside that Tass does. Freshman Mitchell Saxen is a wild card, but Bennett often likes to redshirt his freshman bigs to let them develop. SMC will also hope for a waiver for 7’4 behemoth Matthew van Komen, a former 4-star recruit at Utah who would make an immediate impact. Regardless of who earns the minutes behind Tass, you can rest assured that Bennett will gear his approach towards his team’s strengths – just look at the varying degrees to which he has used isolations and post ups in the past:

With Ford (and matchup nightmare Malik Fitts) gone, expect the isolations to drop back down, and post ups should jump back up as the team feeds Tass until he burps.  

Another key for Bennett teams is floor spacing around the copious PnRs and post ups, and the wing corps looks quite strong. Alex Ducas is an Australian shooter who impressed on both ends in his freshman campaign, starting 11 games in the heart of WCC play and playing 40 minutes combined against Gonzaga and BYU in the conference tournament. He’ll be joined by Jabe Mullins, the team’s second-highest-ranked recruit ever at 247 Sports (only Tass ranks above him). Mullins won a state title in Washington before coronavirus sucked the life out of sports, and the fiery redhead could gradually emerge into the Gaels’ primary perimeter option even as a freshman thanks to his versatile skillset and terrific hoops IQ. Two other freshman, Leemet Bockler and Judah Brown, may also warrant minutes: Bockler is a pure shooting Estonian, while Brown is more in the Fitts mold as a ‘tweener forward. Brown actually ranks as the program’s 7th-best recruit, per 247.

Without a true perimeter star, the Gaels will need to lock up on the defensive end, an area that has lagged behind the offense in recent seasons:

Bennett’s teams have sound principles – disciplined man-to-man, extend on the perimeter without gambling, don’t over-help, dominate the defensive glass. The lack of length and athleticism has lowered the ceiling, though, and that 2017 team above was one of only two top-50 defenses in Bennett’s 19-year tenure. This team is longer on the perimeter than most of Bennett’s squads, though, and Tass gives the team a solid rim protector. If eligible, Van Komen would add a vertical element SMC has rarely had.

Bottom Line: A Randy Bennett-coached team is always going to play smart on both ends, valuing possessions and forcing opponents to make difficult shots. The individual talent on this roster (at least of the proven variety) is lagging, though, and Bennett will need significantly leaps from multiple perimeter guys to stay at the same lofty heights the Gaels have been at recently. It feels like a “down” year while the strong freshman and sophomore classes get their feet under them and Tass gets back to full health; look out for the Gaels in 2021-22 and beyond.

Tier 3

5. Pepperdine

Key Returners: Colbey Ross, Kessler Edwards, Skylar Chavez, Jade’ Smith (injury), Sedrick Altman, Andre Ball (injury)
Key Losses: Kameron Edwards
Key Newcomers: Kendall Munson, Majok Deng (redshirted), Robbie Heath (Division II)***

*** - needs waiver to play right away

Lineup:

Outlook: The Waves sits in a tier by themselves, and that’s not entirely because I think they’re worse than BYU/USF/SMC or much better than Pacific/etc. – it’s because they confuse me. Pepperdine has the talent to play with anyone but Gonzaga (actually, they played with Gonzaga twice last year), but the lapses in defense and shot selection that are typical of a Lorenzo Romar team often drag the Waves down to a level beneath where their roster is capable of playing. Losing to Sacramento State at home and at San Jose State simply should not happen, and Pepperdine went just 8-8 in league play. On paper, the Waves return a more appealing roster than someone like St. Mary’s, but you cannot ever make me pick Randy Bennett to finish behind Romar, I refuse.

Alright, let’s start by making the argument for Pepperdine to be up in Tier 2, and then we’ll make the case for it to be in Tier 4 – that should ultimately leave you comfortable that “alone in Tier 3” is where the Men from Malibu belong. Colbey Ross is probably the best non-Gonzaga player in the league, a wizard of a point guard who can shoot (178 career threes at 38.1%) and set the table for others (ranked 8th nationally in assist rate last year, led the WCC). He’s the only returning player in the conference with two First Team honors on his resume, and opposing coaches would have loved to see him head to the professional ranks this offseason. Ross’s speed triggers the team’s transition attack, and his ability off the bounce makes him dangerous in pick-and-roll settings and in isolation, especially with a spread floor.

Alongside Ross, Kessler Edwards forms something of a dynamic duo in Malibu, a hyper-versatile two-way weapon whose combination of size, ability to play in the paint, and offensive arsenal makes him a matchup nightmare. The two needed each other last year, though, and Pepperdine struggled when one or the other was getting a breather:

Obviously from those possession numbers, Ross rarely left the floor (17th nationally in percentage of minutes played), indicating just how crucial he is to Romar’s scheme.

Edwards’ older brother, Kameron, graduated, but the Waves still have a few potent role players in Skylar Chavez and Jade’ Smith. Chavez is a pure shooter and floor spacer, while Smith is more of a slasher. Smith missed most of the season last year with a knee issue, and although he’s not a point guard, his return should allow Ross to play off the ball a little more (or even rest a couple extra possessions). Division II transfer Robbie Heath is an incendiary scorer, but he will have to sit this year out unless he receives an unlikely waiver.

Defensively, the Waves really struggled, but a big part of that may have simply been poor shooting luck. Opponents shot 38.1% from deep, a bottom 10 rate in the entire country, and some regression would do wonders for that end of the floor. That’s not a certainty, though, as many of those jumpers were open/uncontested, and the onus is on Pepperdine to challenge more shots. Smith’s return should help, and Daryl Polk is a pesky on-ball defender, but he only stands 5’9, making it easy to shoot over him.

Okay, the case against. The defense stunk out loud against pick-and-rolls, ranking 307th and 332nd in raw PPP versus ball-handlers and roll men, respectively. The rotations are often sloppy, and even switchable lineups with Kessler Edwards at center had issues. Additionally, outside of those small-ball lineups, the big man rotation is shaky at best: Victor Ohia Obioha is fine but unproven in a big roll, and Pitt transfer Kene Chukwuka failed to make much of an impact at all for a Panthers team that desperately needed interior help.

Overall, the team lacks impact individual defenders, and while freshman Kendall Munson is a highly-regarded and versatile addition, banking on a freshman to move the defensive needle is often unwise. More damningly, Romar has had precisely one (1) top-160 defense (not a high bar) in his past six seasons as a head coach, and that team had three first round NBA Draft picks starting every game (Marquese Chriss, Dejounte Murray, Matisse Thybulle) – and it still only ranked 70th.

The offense will also take some strange shots early in the shot clock, which can lead to confounding droughts, and there’s a reason the Waves ranked 253rd in Dribble Handoff’s shot quality metric:

The screen doesn’t show it, but there’s 14 seconds on the shot clock and that’s a contested 19-footer from the corner – gross. Sophomore guard Sedrick Altman was nightmarish in his initial college foray (27.3% from deep, 0.8:1 assist-to-turnover ratio), although Jade’ Smith’s return should cut into his minutes. Ross’ efficiency also fell slightly last year, perhaps due to his huge minutes load and offensive burden, which may or may not be lessened this year.

Bottom Line: Pepperdine is a conundrum, and my esteemed colleague Matt said it best on our bold predictions pod back in June, expressing his absolute confidence that Pepperdine would finish 5th in the WCC – a notch below the top four, and a clear tick above the bottom five. Ross and Edwards are a great combination, and the supporting cast has some high-upside individuals, but the parts of the game that drive me nuts – quick and ill-advised shots, silly fouls, gambling without a purpose on defense – all plague the Waves, and it’s hard to see them climbing above the four tremendously well-coached teams above them.

Tier 4

6. Pacific

Key Returners: Pierre Crockrell II, Justin Moore, James Hampshire, Jahbril Price-Noel, Daniss Jenkins, Broc Finstuen, Jeremiah Bailey
Key Losses: Jahlil Tripp, Amari McCray (transfer), Gary Chivichyan, Austin Vereen
Key Newcomers: Jervay Green (Nebraska), Jordan Bell (LMU), Marial Mading (redshirt), Jalen Brown (JUCO), Nigel Shadd (Kansas St.)

Lineup:

Outlook: I’d like to express my outrage that a school called “University of the Pacific” is nearly 100 miles from the Pacific Ocean. Compared to Florida Atlantic, which nearly touches the Atlantic Ocean, it’s a gosh darn outrage that Pacific exists so far inland. In this time of Zoom college visits, so many poor students could be defrauded by such a misleading name!

Okay, enough fake outrage – let’s talk hoops. And we can’t do that without mentioning that Pacific loses a monster in Jahlil Tripp, a bulldog of a wing who won the WCC’s Defensive Player of the Year award and set the tone for the team on both ends of the court with his unbridled intensity. The on/off numbers don’t quite paint him as the savant I’m describing him as, but his impact as the team’s heart and soul transcended statistical measures. Coach Damon Stoudamire has received glowing reviews for his work in Stockton (again, not near the ocean!), but replacing a player like Tripp takes a village.

Thankfully, Stoudamire has a village, with six players returning who started eight or more games last year. Pacific was one of the deepest teams in the country last year, with Tripp actually being the only one who averaged over 23.0 minutes per game. The rest of the team came in waves, and the guard duo of Pierre Crockrell and Justin Moore should anchor the offense, particularly under Stoudamire’s tutelage. Crockrell ranked 20th in the entire country in assist rate, and his burgeoning prowess in the pick-and-roll fits snugly into his coach’s preferred offensive style. His hoop IQ is quite high (he’s the passer/director):

He’s a complete non-threat as a scorer, though, so he needs to grow that part of his game. Moore is the leading candidate to the be the team’s go-to guy, and he functions well as both a shooter and a creator, either alongside Crockrell or as the standalone point guard.

The problem with last year’s offense was a total dearth of perimeter shooting outside of Gary Chivichyan, who graduated. Pacific ranked 341st in 3PA rate, instead following Tripp’s lead and attempting to bludgeon its way to the rim via drives and active offensive rebounding. Daniss Jenkins started every conference game, but his frigid shooting (23.8% in WCC play) often hamstrung the offense. That makes the addition of JUCO sniper Jalen Brown crucial: he led all of NJCAA with 123 triples during his freshman season at Eastern Arizona (shot 42.6%). He popped on tape with his athleticism, as well, and he should be an immediate offensive weapon for the Tigers. Stretch four Jahbril Price-Noel can also stretch the floor around the team’s PnR attack, but he needs to contribute more on the glass and the defensive end, while Broc Finstuen will be in a battle for minutes.

Inside, the team will be anchored by the massive James Hampshire, a 7’1 skyscraper who would have ranked in the top 20 nationally in block rate had he played a few more minutes. The Tigers also added the rare intra-conference grad transfer in LMU’s Jordan Bell, a multi-positional defender who should be able to rotate with or play alongside Hampshire. Stoudamire also added Marial Mading, a JUCO transfer from Chipola College who oozes upside, and Nigel Shadd, a little-used big man from Kansas State. All four will be tasked with hammering the offensive boards, as well.

Unsurprisingly with a coach who came straight from the NBA ranks, Pacific plays exclusively man-to-man, and the defensive end is Jenkins’ calling card. He has shutdown defender potential if he can add more strength, and Crockrell is a quick on-ball defender, as well. This is where Tripp’s absence will be most stark, though; he could guard any position, and his ferocious work on the glass helped Pacific rank 3rd nationally in defensive rebound rate. Hampshire and Bell are solid, but Tripp’s impact at his size was unique.

The team received a waiver for Nebraska transfer Jervay Green, a talented scoring guard, although the ‘Huskers often seemed to play better on nights when coach Fred Hoiberg suspended him. His range of outcomes is kind of a microcosm of Pacific’s as a whole: could be high if things all break right, on and off the court, but some lingering question marks make that far from a certainty.

Bottom Line: Stoudamire, the reigning WCC Coach of the Year (a shaky decision over Mark Few and Mark Pope, if you ask me…), has the pieces here to main Pacific’s positive momentum, even with the loss of a player like Tripp. He’ll need pieces like Crockrell and Jenkins to develop quickly, and the defense has to find a way to compensate for Tripp’s do-everything abilities. I doubt the Tigers can replicate last year’s impressive 11-5 league record, but comfortably in the middle of the pack is a solid baseline.

7. Loyola Marymount

Key Returners: Eli Scott, Keli Leaupepe, Mattias Markusson (personal), Joe Quintana (injury), Dameane Douglas (injury), Ivan Alipiev, Parker Dortch
Key Losses: Erik Johansson, Jordan Bell (transfer), Seikou Sisoho Jawara (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Kodye Pugh (Stanford), Quentin Jackson (Temple), Mayoum Mayoum, Jalin Anderson

Lineup:

Outlook: Most of our previews use the prior season as a jumping off point: what went right? What went wrong? Who is back to play key roles from that team, and how do they replace the players that left?

For this Loyola Marymount preview, though, take last year and torch it with Leo DiCaprio’s flamethrower.  

Three players who combined to start 68 games in 2018-19 missed the entire season: massive big man Mattias Markusson (31 starts) returned home to Sweden, while Joe Quintana (17) and Dameane Douglas (21) sustained season-ending injuries before games began. Any team would suffer losing three expected starters, so it’s hard to fault Mike Dunlap for LMU’s 11-21 (4-12) finish, but apparently the administration had enough, firing him a season after he won 22 games – only the second time LMU has won 20+ since Paul Westhead was around in 1990. With all three guys returning from their absences and several key pieces back that actually did play, new coach Stan Johnson actually has a strong roster with which to start his tenure.

Johnson comes to Los Angeles from Marquette, where he was widely renowned as an ace recruiter, previously serving on staffs under Herb Sendek at Arizona State, Mark Phelps at Drake, and Jim Boylen (yes, the Chicago Bulls’ Jim Boylen) at Utah. That gives him an exceedingly wide range of stylistic influences, but the most recent of those is Steve Wojciechowski’s pick-and-roll-dominated system. Marquette ranked 2nd, 6th, and 11th nationally in percentage of possessions ended via PnR ball-handlers the last three years, and while some of that was due to one Markus Howard, it still will likely influence Johnson’s approach at LMU.

He has a unique on-ball maestro now, as 6’6, 245-pound tank engine Eli Scott facilitated everything last season. The explosive Scott knows how to use his frame to attack the rim and get to the free throw line, and he showed some promise in pick-and-rolls, as well, although that was not a priority in Dunlap’s offense. He’s best used as a facilitator out of the post/mid-post, where he can destroy most single coverage with his quickness/strength combo:

Not bad for going against Gonzaga’s Drew Timme. Plus, he ranked 93rd in the entire country in assist rate, using his court vision to slice up double-teams as opponents rotated to him. Scott is an outstanding downhill driver, with nimble feet capable of quick Euro steps and an ability to finish with his weaker left hand. One more fun fact: he played high school hoops with all three Ball brothers and Onyeka Okongwu for the storied Chino Hills program! If Johnson opts to run more conventional PnR, Quintana and Temple transfer Quentin Jackson will do the Lions’ share (heh) of the ball-handling, though neither has carried a significant burden before.

Scott will face a challenge for time on the block with Markusson, a different kind of specimen at 7’3, 261 pounds. Wojo and Marquette willingly played through the post when they had skilled scorers (Henry Ellenson, Sam Hauser), so expect Johnson to play through his biggest offensive threats. He’ll need to space the floor around those guys, though, a responsibility which should fall heavily on Bulgarian junior Ivan Alipiev and Douglas, who shot 57.7% from deep on limited volume as a freshman in 2019. Still, a cramped floor will likely plague the Lions all year. The 2020 edition dominated in the paint (11th-highest rim frequency, 29th nationally in 2P%), but they shot just 29.7% from deep (327th).

The roster is flush with forwards, as Australian Keli Leaupepe and Stanford transfer Kodye Pugh will also warrant minutes. Leaupepe is a strange blend of 250-pound gladiator and silky-smooth shooting stroke (88% from the line, 38% from deep); he could start alongside Markusson and Scott to give LMU one of the most physically imposing frontcourts in the country. Pugh was a top 100 recruit in 2016, but he barely played over four seasons in Palo Alto (one redshirt, one medical redshirt, buried for two); it’s unclear what he’ll be able to offer coming off a season lost to a knee injury. Another veteran wing, Parker Dortch, may get pushed out of the rotation if touted freshman Mayoum Mayoum is ready to play right away.

The plethora of size and strength all over the roster should bode well for the defense, which dropped off some in 2019-20 after a strong 2019 campaign. Markusson is not very explosive, but again – he’s 7’3, ask Big Ten opponents how they felt about finishing inside against Isaac Haas. Quintana can be a pest on the ball, and so many of LMU’s lineups will be completely switchable at the 2 through 4 spots. Still, if Johnson is bringing Wojo’s defensive track record to LA, that is reason for hesitance on this end.

Bottom Line: Last year’s roster issues are this year’s benefits, as Johnson now has seven guys with starting experience at LMU, plus three talented newcomers. The Lions will be one of the biggest teams in the entire country (ranked 27th in average height last year without Markusson), and a theoretical lineup with Scott (6’6), Douglas (6’7), Alipiev (6’8), Leaupepe (6’6), and Markusson (7’3) could be a worthy experiment in spurts. But Johnson is in his first year as a head coach, and tying everything together – the returners, the guys who missed last season, the newcomers – into a competitive squad could take some time. LMU has a wide range of outcomes this year, but I’ll start out on the bearish end until I see how Johnson builds his approach on each end.

8. Santa Clara

Key Returners: Josip Vrankic, Guglielmo Caruso, Keshawn Justice, DJ Mitchell, Jaden Bediako, Jalen Williams
Key Losses: Trey Wertz (transfer), Tahj Eaddy (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Christian Carlyle (FGCU), Trent Hudgens Jr., Miguel Tomley (redshirt)

Lineup:

Outlook: Last year’s Santa Clara season exemplified the rising tide in the WCC. In Herb Sendek’s 4th year, the Broncos won 20 games for the first time and finished 151st at KenPom; however, the Broncos had Sendek’s worst conference record (6-10) thanks to the league’s overall improvement. Santa Clara fattened its win total against softer competition, going 4-0 against the dregs of the WCC (Portland and San Diego) and a perfect 13-0 at home against a poor non-conference slate (ranked 352nd nationally, per KenPom). Still, despite that win inflation, it seemed like a launching pad for a roster with no seniors.

Unfortunately, the team’s two best guards both hit the transfer portal this offseason, as both Trey Wertz (Notre Dame) and Tahj Eaddy (USC) joined the ranks of the Power 6. What remains is a bizarre roster construction stacked with skilled frontcourt players and massive questions in terms of shot creation and ball-handling. When both hit the bench last year, the offense lagged a bit, but the key note is the rise in free throw rate as the team pounded it inside:

Few coaches would be more equipped to make this work than Sendek, though: he’s been a head coach for 26 seasons, and his history of using Princeton-esque principles gives a clear roadmap for running offense through his big men. His attack has evolved to a more motion-centric approach, but given his personnel, dusting off his old playbook could be a valuable asset with guys like Josip Vrankic, DJ Mitchell, and Guglielmo Caruso capable of being offensive focal points.

Vrankic is the likely star, a versatile Canadian big man who can score inside and out. His best asset is his innate ability to draw contact and get to the free throw line; he ranked 28th in the entire country in free throw rate. He’s also mobile and a skilled passer, though he became less of a facilitator in WCC play. Caruso missed essentially all of WCC play, but he shot an absurd 68.7% from the floor when he managed to be out there. The Broncos ranked 17th nationally in post up percentage last year, and that number could shoot even higher with Caruso healthy for a full year. That leads to spacing concerns, but Vrankic and Mitchell can both stretch the floor, and big wing Keshawn Justice is a true perimeter threat whenever he’s on the court.

Sendek hit the gas pedal last season, playing at his fastest tempo in his coaching history. That was largely due to having Wertz and Eaddy around, though, and a reversion to his normal half court-based tactics makes sense. Although neither is a true point, sophomore Jalen Williams and FGCU grad transfer Christian Carlyle will be forced into some ball-handling duties. The other options have no collegiate experience: true freshman Trent Hudgens and redshirt freshman Miguel Tomley. Hudgens won a state title in Arizona and has some upside, though even he is more “combo-y” than true pass-first creator. If the offense is going through the bigs, though, that will be less of an issue. Tomley was an explosive scorer at his Canadian high school, and perhaps he’ll be ready to contribute following his redshirt year.

Defensively, Sendek has been devoutly man-to-man the past two years (over 99% of the time). His Santa Clara teams have made a concerted effort to run foes off the three-point line, and with the team’s surplus of size, doing so again makes sense this year. Caruso and Jaden Bediako form a stout rim protection platoon at center, and those two, Mitchell, and Vrankic should ensure the glass is squeaky clean. Matching up against quicker guards (Gonzaga’s Joel Ayayi, USF’s Jamaree Bouyea, Pepperdine’s Colbey Ross, etc.) will be a tough task, though the Broncos may be better off letting those guys try to finish over size rather than rotating off shooters.

Bottom Line: Santa Clara and Loyola Marymount have similar issues: most of their rosters’ best players reside in the frontcourt, and finding a way to make things work with shaky guard play falls on squarely on the coaches. I don’t feel great about placing greenhorn Stan Johnson ahead of Sendek, the grizzled vet, but I just think the loss of Wertz and the issues with perimeter shot creation will be too much to overcome, even if Carlyle and Hudgens make impacts right away. This is lower than you’ll find Santa Clara in most places, so indignant Bronco fans may be justified – we’ll have to wait and see.

9. San Diego

Key Returners: Joey Calcaterra, Marion Humphrey, Yauhen Massalski, Finn Sullivan, Jared Rodriguez
Key Losses: Braun Hartfield (grad transfer), Alex Floresca, James Jean-Marie (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Frankie Hughes (Duquesne), Vladimir Pinchuk (New Mexico), Josh Parrish (Rice), Ben Pyle (Western Illinois)***, Yavuz Gultekin (Texas A&M)***, Chris Herren Jr. (Boston College)***

*** - needs waiver to play right away

Lineup:

Outlook: Following the ignominious departure of Lamont Smith back in 2018 (who has since also been accused of accepting bribes to help students get into San Diego), the USD basketball program seemed to be in good hands with young Sam Scholl, who won 21 games in his debut campaign. Unfortunately, Scholl fell victim to the cyclical nature of college basketball, as that 2018-19 squad was hugely reliant on four seniors, leaving last year’s team exceedingly short-handed with WCC-level players. A couple injuries early in the season did not help, and the Toreros stumbled their way to a 9-23 (2-14 season) in a competitive year for the WCC. Most of the roster returns, but the real progress might need to come from the talented transfers that Scholl has added to the mix.

Last year’s team struggled mightily on the offensive end, lacking dynamic offensive weapons that could create shots for themselves or others against a set defense. Duquesne transfer Frankie Hughes (originally started his career at Missouri) is a scoring-minded wing, and despite missing all of last year with a knee injury, he’ll hopefully have added more off-the-bounce juice to his game; at Duquesne, 80% of his field goal attempts were threes. His power conference pedigree is a positive indicator, though, as is that of Rice grad transfer Josh Parrish, who began his career at TCU. Parrish is a powerfully-built guard (6’4, 215 pounds) who led Conference USA in field goal percentage, using his physique to bully his way to the rim and finishing well against size. Both players should boost an attack that ranked 329th in shot quality last year, per Dribble Handoff, with over 35% of its shots coming from the mid-range, the 24th-highest rate in the country (Hoop Math).

The returning backcourt simply lacked punch in Scholl’s pick-and-roll heavy scheme. Freshman Marion Humphrey was pressed into duty, starting 28 games and becoming the first Torero freshman to average over 30 MPG since 2009-10. The Hoover High grad (shout out to Two-a-Days) struggled with the speed of the game, leading to abysmal 34.8% / 28.1% / 58.9% shooting splits. The Torerors’ “veteran” guards, sophomores Joey Calcaterra and Finn Sullivan, were only marginally better, with Calcaterra’s perimeter shooting (36.2%) being one of the offense’s few bright spots and Sullivan never finding much rhythm after missing most of the preseason and the first four games with a stress fracture in his back. Youngstown State transfer Braun Hartfield ended up miscast as the team’s primary weapon, and while did a yeoman’s job in a tough role, his turnover issues were representative of the team as a whole. He chose to grad transfer in the offseason, which means the rest of the San Diego backcourt has to fill that void. The Toreros ranked 349th in PPP against press defenses, further evidencing their total lack of primary ball-handlers.  

The strength of this team will be the two-headed center duo of Yauhen Massalski and New Mexico transfer Vladimir Pinchuk, two European behemoths (Belarusian and German, respectively) who should provide 40 minutes of stability in the paint. Massalski missed the beginning and the end of the year with foot injuries (bone spurs early, broken ankle late), and his absence was particularly notable on the offensive end:

Without him, the paint lacked any sort of post up or finishing threat, and that allowed opponents to lock even more closely onto the overmatched guards. Pinchuk should provide depth after sitting out last season; he was mostly a role player in Albuquerque, but he has great size and will make an impact on the offensive glass. Both players will also help shore up the Toreros’ sieve-like rim protection. According to Hoop Math, opponents shot 65.1% at the rim, ranking San Diego 332nd in the country. Again, part of this is on the guards, who often couldn’t keep quicker drivers in front of them, leading to a huge increase in shots at the rim after an elite mark in 2018-19:

If you’re going to be bad at something, it’s best to limit the occurrences of said thing.

The Torerors lost athletic forward James Jean-Marie to the transfer portal in the offseason, which means a much bigger role for Jared Rodriguez, who embodied many of the team’s offensive issues last year (27.1% from deep, four assists all season versus 41 turnovers). Expect Parrish to play some small-ball four at times.

Bottom Line: San Diego should improve through sheer volume of experience, though the degree of that improvement is highly leveraged on how much Hughes and Parrish can contribute on the offensive end. Scholl’s defenses should generally have a high floor with how many mid-range jumpers they force, but he needs impact athletes in more spots for the ceiling to rise on that end. In what looks like another strong year for the middle of the WCC, the Toreros will need to prove they belong somewhere than “only ahead of Portland.”

Tier 5

10. Portland

Key Returners: Tahirou Diabete, Takiula Fahrensohn, Chase Adams, Quincy Ferebee
Key Losses: Isaiah White, JoJo Walker (left team), Malcolm Porter (grad transfer), Jacob Tryon (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Ahmed Ali (Hawaii/Wazzu), Latrell Jones (JUCO), Hunter Seymour (JUCO), Clythus Griffith (JUCO), Isiah Dasher (JUCO), Eddie Davis (JUCO), Mikey Henn (Cal Baptist), Zac Triplett, Hayden Curtiss

Lineup:

Outlook: Every time a coach is hired into the college ranks with no experience, a debate rages on whether that coach can succeed in Division I hoops without any familiarity with the demands of the gig. Portland’s Terry Porter may be the strongest data point against the inexperienced hire, as his tenure has been a brutal four-year stretch devoid of winning. Under Porter, the Pilots are 37-92 overall and a calamitous 7-61 in WCC play. KenPom’s rankings go back to 1997 now (24 seasons), and Porter has been in charge for four of the program’s six worst finishes in that stretch:

Part of the issue is the rest of the league elevating itself around Portland, and injuries have certainly done the Pilots no favors, either. But the fact remains that he’s won just a single conference game in the past two years, and the ice has to be getting thin. Even his son, Malcolm Porter, left the program as a grad transfer!

Jokes aside, (Malcolm) Porter was a valuable piece as a potent perimeter shooter, as was stretch big man Jacob Tryon, another portal departure. The remaining roster lacks perimeter punch outside of wing Taikula Fahrensohn. Porter wants to spread the floor in a four-out, one-in alignment and let his team attack the gaps, but if the defense doesn’t respect the Pilots’ shooting, it becomes easier to sag off and clog things up. For this reason, the massive group of newcomers will be pressed into early duty. One of five JUCO transfers, Hunter Seymour provides a reasonable replacement for Tryon after making 38.5% of his threes and swatting 3.2 shots per game. Clythus Griffith is probably the best shooter of the bunch, while Cal Baptist grad transfer Mike Henn provides another versatile inside-out option.

Creating shots will be a challenge, whether or not the shooters knock down jumpers. Athletic forward Tahirou Diabate will often occupy the “one-in” spot in Porter’s offense, and he had a nine-game stretch in WCC play where he averaged 14.2 PPG, evidencing his skills as a post up option. Seymour may occupy this spot for stretches, as freshman Hayden Curtiss appears to be more of a long-term project. Porter brought in a couple athletic slashers from the JUCO ranks in Eddie Davis and Latrell Jones; both were impressive scorers for strong squads last year (their teams went a combined 52-12 last year).

Point guard play was a problem last year, particularly for tiny, overmatched freshman Chase Adams, whose turnover issues and bricky shooting exemplified the struggles of rookie playmakers. His quickness makes him a weapon on both ends, but he desperately needs to tighten up his weaknesses. Backup Quincy Ferebee wasn’t any better, though, so Porter brought in grad transfer Ahmed Ali to provide more competition. He is a steadier, veteran hand who proved his competence in the Pac-12 back in 2018-19. Isiah Dasher, the last JUCO transfer, may also occupy some minutes at the spot, though he’s more likely to play off the ball now that Ali is in the fold.

Defensively, the influx of more depth and athleticism should hopefully boost the transition defense, which struggled mightily: according to Hoop-Math, opponents took 26.7% of their shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, a top-20 rate in the country. Those high-value opportunities can sink a defense, and the fix is largely effort-based. This is most concerning when factoring in the Pilots’ non-existent offensive rebounding (350th nationally), something Porter has clearly de-prioritized. One would think that if players are not crashing the glass, they can comfortably get back and force foes to play in the half court…

Porter’s withdrawn man-to-man scheme gives up plenty of open jumpers and consistently ranks poorly in defensive assist rate, displaying the Pilots’ inability to dictate the opponent’s style. Playing such a tiny point guard hurts, as well, despite Adams’ ability to create steals with his quickness. Similar to the transition defense, the increased roster versatility should help, but they’ll need to do a better job finishing possessions on the glass (295th in defensive rebound rate) if they want to see real improvement on this end.

Bottom Line: Comfortably sitting below the rest of the WCC again, it looks like another long year in Portland – which could be dangerous for Porter. The six transfers on the roster offer some upside, but even a team like San Diego, who finished just a game ahead of Portland in the WCC last year, looks far more capable of competing in the conference.