- Ky McKeon

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Damion Trammell, Jr., Seattle
Coach of the Year: Rick Croy, Cal Baptist
Newcomer of the Year*: Teddy Allen, Jr., New Mexico State
Freshman of the Year: Jalen Blackmon, Fr., Grand Canyon

*Newcomer = new to team… Gavin Kensmil would get the award if we decided to include all former Southland players as “newcomers”

Tier 1

1. New Mexico State

Key Returners: Donnie Tillman, Johnny McCants, Jabari Rice, Clayton Henry, Will McNair
Key Losses: CJ Roberts, Evan Gilyard, Wilfried Likayi, Kalen Williams, Marcus Watson
Key Newcomers: Teddy Allen (Nebraska), Jermaine Harris (Rhode Island)***, Nate Pryor (Washington), Yuat Alok (Coppin State), Mike Peake (Austin Peay), Mario McKinney Jr. (JUCO), Virshon Cotton (LIU)

*** Harris is not on the roster as of this publishing date
** Odunewu and Oliver are expected to redshirt

Lineup:

Outlook: Take last season, crumple it up into a little ball, and throw it as far out the window as you can. Did you do that? Good. Now we can begin.

New Mexico State couldn’t practice or play games in its own STATE last season let alone its own home court arena. The Aggies played their home games at Eastwood HS in El Paso, TX and their practice time was anything but normal. So, you can see how Chris Jans finished an uncharacteristic 7-6 in the WAC. NMSU’s other three WAC finishes under Jans? 16-0, 15-1, and 12-2. This season Jans has arguably his most talented team ever with four starters back and a slew of transfers (per usual) coming to Las Cruces.

Jans’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings last season were both the lowest of his 4-year Aggie tenure. But NMSU was still the WAC’s best offensive team in 2020-21, leading the league in OR% and 3PA rate. Two constants are always true for Jans-coached teams in Lac Cruces: 1) they will rebound the piss out of the ball and 2) they will shoot a ton of 3s. Jans would never admit to being a smart guy, but rest assured he’s more analytically sound than he leads on – he knows what it takes to put his team in the best position to win on a nightly basis.

The most impressive thing about Jans is his ability to take a bunch of new players every year – very often guys who are on their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th school – and get them to buy into the culture, play unselfish basketball, and defend their nuts off. Last year aside, NMSU is always one of the toughest defensive teams in the country; they battle on the glass, deny passing lanes, muck up the lane, and force opposing offenses to play in isolation. Jans himself says one of his team’s key focuses is defensive assist rate – he wants to turn the other team into 1 v. 1 scorers.

Four starters are back from last year’s underwhelming squad. Former UNLV / Utah transfer Donnie Tillman, HM All-WAC selection Johnny McCants, and 2nd Team All-WAC member Jabari Rice lead the way. Tillman, as his pedigree suggests, is very talented and multi-positional. He rebounds, facilitates, shoots, and gets to the bucket – an all-around great WAC player. McCants is Tillman’s frontcourt partner, a 6’7” center who plays far beyond his height. Last season in WAC play McCants ranked 4th in O-rating, 2nd in OR%, 7th in block rate, 6th in steal rate, and 4th in FT rate. He’s as effective stepping out for a triple as he is posting his man on the block, and his mobility at the 5-spot makes him a nightmare to defend.

Rice is a stud wing who has ranked in the WAC top ten of eFG% and TS% two straight seasons despite garnering a high usage. His two-way ability embodies what Jans looks for in a player: someone who can defend multiple spots and score on the other end.

Fellow backcourt member Clayton Henry, a WAC All-Defense selection in 2020-21, is back as well. He’s more limited to a slasher on offense, but he’s as good as they come on this roster defensively. Henry will be in the mix for starts again, but there are some talented pieces coming through the transfer pipeline who warrant playing time as well.

Teddy Allen is one of those transfers, now on technically his 5th school after attending West Virginia, Wichita State (briefly), Western Nebraska CC, and Nebraska. Allen makes scoring look as easy as breathing – he is quite literally a walking bucket.

In the JUCO ranks Allen led the country in scoring at 31.4 PPG, then at Nebraska he poured in a 41-point effort against Penn State, the league’s highest single-game output that season. He does it pretty efficiently too, hitting 38% of his 3PA in 2020-21. Nobody is going to stop him in the WAC – he will score whenever and however he wants and will likely lead the Aggies in that statistical department.

The remaining backcourt transfers are Nate Pryor from Washington, Virshon Cotton from LIU, and Mario McKinney and Marsei Caston from the JUCO ranks. Pryor and McKinney will be in competition to start at PG, and both are qualified to take the reins. In Pryor’s two starts for the Huskies last season he averaged 14 PPG and 4.5 APG; he’s a super quick table setter and moves smoothly with the ball with his length. McKinney began his career at Mizzou prior to spending a year in junior college. He averaged 18.4 PPG at Logan College and scored 52 points in one contest – athleticism and scoring define his game.

Caston was a 2-time 1st Team All-Conference selection at Northwest Florida State and adds shooting. Cotton is a late add, because why have 15 players when you can have 20 players? He’s a scorer who can handle the rock and provide backcourt depth. Chicago freshman guard Kiran Oliver is a 3-star recruit, but he might have eligibility issues heading into the season.

Jans bolstered his frontline this offseason, a priority of his according to many. In addition to returning center Will McNair, a sizable rebounder and rim protector, NMSU adds Rhode Island transfer Jermaine Harris, Coppin State transfer Yuat Alok, Austin Peay transfer Mike Peake, JUCO transfer Marchelus Avery, and two freshmen in Jorge Moreno and Shakiru Odunewu.

Harris, Peake, and Alok are the key guys here. Harris was a 2-year starter at URI before coming off the bench in 2020-21. He’s never had a truly good collegiate season, but he’ll add good depth and is an active big man on the floor. Alok began his career in the JUCO ranks then played for TCU prior to Coppin State. He started every game he played in at Coppin, ranked 5th in the MEAC in block rate, and proved he could stretch the floor. Peake began his career at Georgia then had a quietly unbelievable season at Peay. He shot 46% from 3 last year, rebounded well, defended well, and notched the OVC’s 2nd best O-rating in conference play. He should thrive in NMSU’s system.

Avery has promise after being rated a 3-star recruit out of HS and initially committing to UCF. He has tons of length and athleticism and promises to be a menace on the defensive end. Moreno has played basketball for just three years; he’s a shot blocker, rebounder, and big. However, he’s also raw, slow, and unable to jump (for now). Odunewu has an excellent nose for the ball and is strong and aggressive, a perfect match for Jans and NMSU.

Bottom Line: NMSU should be considered the heavy favorites in the WAC this season. Expect the Aggies to get back to their dominant ways after a strange COVID year in which they literally lived outside the friendly confines of Las Cruces.

2. Stephen F. Austin

Key Returners: Gavin Kensmil, David Kachelries, Roti Ware, Calvin Solomon, Nigel Hawkins, Nana Antwi-Boasiako
Key Losses: Cameron Johnson, Charlie Daniels
Key Newcomers: Jonathan Aku (Texas A&M), Latrell Jossell (Kansas), Jaylin Jackson-Posey (Redshirt), Diego Willis (NJIT), Derrick Tezeno, Jules Moor (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Another strong season went into the books at Stephen F. Austin, though last year was anything but typical. Aside from the COVID mess affecting all teams, SFA had to adhere to a (possibly silly, but we don’t have time to debate this now) postseason ban. So, while SFA was once again among the Southland elite, sitting at 12-3 in conference play, the Jacks were unable to compete for their second (official) NCAA Tournament bid under Kyle Keller. Two years ago, SFA went 19-1 in the Southland and gave the people of America one of the best moments in college basketball when it went into Cameron Indoor and upset Duke on a last second breakaway layup. SFA now leaves the Southland as the league’s most dominant team of the past decade.

The Jacks step up into the WAC this season but have zero plans of not competing for a conference title. SFA returns four starters from last year’s squad and adds some powerful reinforcements from the DI and JUCO ranks.

Chief among those returning starters is Gavin Kensmil, a 1st Team All-SLC selection last season and a bona fide WAC Player of the Year candidate in 2021-22. SFA runs its halfcourt offense through Kensmil on the block, where he is a gifted scorer and passer out of double-teams, of which he demands frequently. Kensmil is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country and is a major reason the Jacks have ranked 7th and 3rd nationally in OR% the past two seasons.

Kensmil has a unique combination of mobility and power which makes him impossible to stop. Though he stands just 6’7”, his 260-pound frame is more than enough to allow him to compete and dominate in the paint. He’ll be among the WAC’s best players this season.

With Kensmil returns guards David Kachelries and Roti Ware, who pace SFA’s uptempo attack, one that looks to take advantage of transition opportunities particularly off turnovers on the other end. Kachelries stepped into the fulltime PG role last season and performed admirably, ranking 4th in the league in assist rate, though he struggled with turnovers at times. The 6’1” lead guard is a skilled ball handler and crafty finisher, and the hope is he can button down those ball security issues in his 5th year. Ware was a 3rd Team All-SLC pick last season and is a 2-year starter for the Jacks. He’s wired to score and doubles as SFA’s best perimeter defender on the other end. Ware is at his best changing pace off the bounce, which allows him to get a step in front of his back-pedaling defender and find an easy path to the rim.

Forward Calvin Solomon stepped into a fulltime starting role last season and provided value as a versatile defensive piece, blocking shots and racking up steals. He’ll compete for minutes in a crowded frontcourt that also features Texas A&M transfer Jonathan Aku and sophomore Nana Antwi-Boasiako. Aku was a 3/4 star recruit coming out of high school and started ten games for the Aggies in 2020-21. He’s good for rebounding and helps bolster the topline size of the Jacks, something they’ve lacked in recent years, but he’s not a factor on offense. Keller told Blue Ribbon Antwi-Boasiako is SFA’s “most skilled of (their) bigs”. He’s a long shot-blocking presence who should be a solid rotation piece for Keller up front.

SFA’s 5th starting spot will likely come down to former UTEP transfer Nigel Hawkins and redshirt freshman Jaylin Jackson-Posey. Hawkins can shoot, but he’s yet to prove that in actual games. He’s a solid athlete and a solid player. Jackson-Posey offers more upside and will make his highly anticipated debut after missing of all last season with an injury. The former 3-star recruit had multiple Power 6 offers, can score, and attack the rim.

Per usual, Keller brings in a fair share of transfer talent. Former Kansas guard Latrell Jossell will compete for minutes in the backcourt. NJIT transfer Diego Willis will look for run on the wing, as will JUCO transfer and former Stony Brook Seawolf Jules Moor. Jossell was called the best shooter on the team by Keller in Blue Ribbon’s preview and taking a look at where he pulled some of his shots from during garbage time with the Jayhawks it’s not hard to see why. Willis can also shoot and showed his scoring prowess last year with a 22-point breakout performance against Albany. Moor averaged 13.1 PPG and 7.4 RPG in the JUCO ranks last season while shooting 39% from 3.

Freshman Derrick Tezeno and ETSU transfer Sadaidriene “DayDay” Hall round out the roster. Tezeno has all the makings of a future star at SFA with his length and athleticism. In Blue Ribbon’s preview (three references – thanks guys!) Keller called Tezeno the “most athletic kid we’ve ever had here”. High praise.

As alluded to earlier, we can expect the Jacks to play through Kensmil in the halfcourt and look for transition chances off steals. SFA led the country in FGA% near the rim last season and ranked 31st in FG% -- the Jacks will get to the rim, and they will score. Those steals will also come, as SFA has ranked in the top three nationally in defensive TO rate in three of the past four seasons. While certain Southland foes were happy to help pad that stat, the fact remains SFA’s pressure and defensive rotations can bother anyone in the country.

Bottom Line: SFA might be one of the new kids on the block in the WAC, but it is every bit as capable as any other team of winning the regular season title and capturing the league’s auto-bid in March. Keller enters his 6th year at the helm with one of his most promising rosters of his successful tenure.

3. Grand Canyon

Key Returners: Jovan Blacksher, Sean Miller-Moore, Gabe McGlothan, Chance McMillian, Jayden Stone
Key Losses: Oscar Frayer**, Asbjorn Midtgaard, Alessandro Lever, Mikey Dixon
Key Newcomers: Holland Woods (Arizona State), Taeshon Cherry (Arizona State), Yvan Ouedraogo (Nebraska), Aidan Igiehon (Louisville), Walter Ellis (Bucknell)

**Frayer tragically passed away in a car accident in March. By all accounts he was a wonderful person and teammate. Here is one of many articles about Oscar’s life. May he rest in peace.

Lineup:

Outlook: Grand Canyon finally won the WAC! Huzzah! Since joining the WAC (and DI) in 2013-14 the Lopes have been close but have never quite captured that cigar. Not only did Bryce Drew’s squad win the WAC regular season, but it also swept NMSU 3-0 and won the conference’s auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament. But this wasn’t just a good “WAC” team – this was a good college basketball team. The Lopes beat Nevada in the non-conference slate, lost to Arizona State by just 1, San Francisco by 3, and Colorado by 10. GCU hired a fantastic coach in Drew, and it was immediately rewarded.

2021-22 is going to be more challenging, even before considering NMSU gets to play games in the state of New Mexico this season. GCU loses its two 1st Team All-WAC big men, who demanded so much attention and gravity from opposing defenders that it made scoring a breeze (they helped immensely defensively, as well). Drew brings talented reinforcements from the transfer portal, but the makeup and style of the Lopes is going to look very different.

GCU’s attack revolved around Asbjorn Mitgaard and Alessandro Lever last season, ranking 12th nationally in percentage of possessions ended via post-ups (Synergy) and 44th in FGA% near the rim (Hoop-Math). Nebraska transfer Yvan Ouedraogo and Louisville transfer Aidan Ighieon are not in the same universe offensively as the former Lopes, so expect a seismic shift of focus towards the backcourt in ’21-22.

Drew has played a spaced-out attack and gunning offense most of his coaching career, so putting more of an emphasis on guard play and outside shooting shouldn’t be an issue. He also has the personnel to succeed in this new style. Returning point guard Jovan Blacksher and Arizona State transfer Holland “Boo Boo” Woods will form one of the better scoring backcourts in the WAC this season. Blacksher was 2nd Team All-WAC last year and ranked 4th in assist rate while posting a manageable TO rate. He really improved his outside shooting from a lackluster freshman season and proved he could score and create off the dribble in a leading role.

Blacksher will be the primary initiator and ball handler, but Woods could be the leading scorer. In his five collegiate seasons Woods has proven to be an excellent bucket-getter from everywhere on the floor. He was a 2x All-Big Sky selection at Portland State and is 5th on the school’s all-time scoring list despite playing just three years. At ASU he took an expected cut to his usage but still started 12 games and provided steady scoring, shooting, and playmaking off the ball.

Returners Sean Miller-Moore, Chance McMillian, and Jayden Stone will be vying for a wing starting spot this season. Miller-Moore is a former Oregon State Beaver and a strong athlete who can pass, rebound, and defend. McMillian and Stone are the better shooters, and both could be in line for significant improvements as sophomores.

Don’t be surprised if Bucknell transfer Walter Ellis takes a starting spot alongside Blacksher and Woods. He’s an absolute sniper from deep and started every game for the Bison last season. Ellis is also a versatile defender, something Drew values.

Drew brings in two younger brothers of former college stars and his nephew to round out the freshman class. Kobe Knox (Kevin’s bro) and Jalen Blackmon (James’s bro) both have bright futures ahead of them. Blackmon in particular could see playing time right away; he’s a 3-star prospect, shooter, and scorer from the 1 or 2 spot. Isaiah Shaw is Drew’s nephew, and Shaw’s dad Casey is on staff. He’s a rangy, sizable wing at 6’7”.

Ouedraogo and Ighieon will compete for minutes at the 5. The former was forced into major playing time as a freshman at Nebraska because he was literally the only forward on the roster. He took a step back in minutes last season but brings value as a monster on the glass and paint defender. Ouedraogo offers zero offensively – he’s a career 43% FT shooter and 42% FG shooter. Ighieon aka the Irish Hulk was a borderline top 50 recruit when he headed to Louisville, but in two seasons he’s barely seen the floor. The chiseled forward is now an upperclassman and should see more run at GCU.

Drew cannot run offense through the aforementioned bigs, but he could run it through Arizona State transfer Taeshon Cherry, a former 5-star recruit who was ASU’s 2nd highest rated recruit ever (after James Harden) at the time of his commitment. Cherry played just seven games last season due to personal reasons, and ASU’s style has just never been in the best interest of Cherry’s game. At GCU he can spread his wings and spread the floor with his ability to shoot from the outside, take slower defenders to the rim, and score in the post. Returner Gabe McGlothan will compete for minutes in the frontcourt. The former SEMO Redhawk ranked 3rd in the WAC in OR% and 7th in DR% last year and, like Cherry, can stretch the floor.

GCU’s defense was tops in the WAC last season, much of which could be credited to its frontcourt. The Lopes were incredibly stout near the rim, ranked 11th overall in eFG% allowed, and cleaned the glass at the nation’s 20th best rate. But Drew’s perimeter was also quite stingy. GCU allowed teams to shoot just 28% from deep against them, which certainly carries an element of luck, but all credit can’t be taken away. The guards/wings were also key in GCU’s success defending transition – per Hoop-Math GCU ranked 10th in the country in FG% allowed in the open floor. Blacksher, Woods, Miller-Moore, and Ellis are all solid defenders, and Ouedraogo, Ighieon, and McGlothan can scrap up front.

Bottom Line: Like every other year in the WAC, Grand Canyon is going to be one of the major contenders for the conference crown. The defending champs have reloaded with a roster that should be dangerous on both ends of the floor.

Tier 2

4. Cal Baptist

Key Returners: Ty Rowell, Elijah Thomas, Tre Armstrong, Reed Nottage, Malik Wade
Key Losses: Gorjok Gak, Mark Carbone
Key Newcomers: Pavel Zakharov (Gonzaga), Chance Hunter (Long Beach State), Dan Akin (UMBC)

Lineup:

Outlook: The wait is almost over. Cal Baptist enters its fourth and final season of its DI transition, an asinine and arbitrary rule that prevents new squads from competing in the NCAA Tournament. CBU has been rock solid in all three of its DI seasons, finishing in the upper-half of the WAC and competing toe-to-toe with the league powers. The Lancers even gave eventual Elite Eight bound USC a scare in their first game last year, taking the mighty Trojans to overtime in LA. Rick Croy enters his 9th season as head coach of CBU armed with nearly every player back from last year’s squad. He even has a worthy replacement for All-WAC forward Gorjok Gak.

I don’t have any direct confirmation of this, but it seems to me that Rick Croy is an analytics man. His Lancers always take good shots, emphasize rim and 3P looks over 2P jumpers, and have a keen focus on doing the opposite on the other end of the floor. Offensively, this has worked beautifully for Croy during his three DI seasons. CBU has ranked in the top 145 of KenPom’s Adj. OE rankings in each of the past three years, powered by its lights-out shooting from behind the arc. Last season CBU ranked 5th in the country in 3P%, a year after ranking 13th. Croy has a bevy of guards at his disposal who can make just about any shot in the gym.

Defense has been a different story. Though the Lancers do a great job at denying 3P looks, a lack of turnover creation and vulnerability near the hoop has resulted in them ranking poor on this end of the floor in all three of their DI seasons. Last year CBU graded out as the worst defense in the WAC (Chicago State didn’t play) – opposing teams hit 37% of their 3P tries against the Lancers and they couldn’t get steals or blocks to save their lives. Two years ago, CBU ranked dead last in the country in TO rate – even if your defensive philosophy doesn’t revolve around turnovers, you need to at least cause SOME to be competitive on this end.

CBU won games last season by simply outscoring and outshooting its opponents. With its entire backcourt back in 2021-22, the Lancers can employ a similar strategy. Ty Rowell, Tre Armstrong, and Reed Nottage are the terrific trio returning on the perimeter. Rowell was a 1st Team All-WAC performer last season and will be one of the league’s best players this year. He played the 6th most minutes in the country last season, ranked 2nd in the WAC in assist rate, and shot 39% from deep. It doesn’t really matter what you throw at Rowell, he’s going to find a way to score.

Armstrong and Nottage are both sharpshooting wings from Australia. Armstrong can create and distribute while Nottage is the best spot-up threat on the roster (and an HM All-WAC honoree in ’20-21). Both will compete for starting spots in Croy’s four-guard lineup.

Croy has options to slot into the “4” spot of his perimeter-oriented attack. Former Saint Mary’s transfer Elijah Thomas is back for his 5th collegiate season, and CBU adds 6’6” wing Chance Hunter from Long Beach State. Thomas started every game last year and ranked 10th in the WAC in both OR% and DR%. He finishes well inside the paint and can even shoot the 3 (during which he barely gets off the ground). Hunter is a 2x HM All-Big West performer and was one of the Beach’s best players in 2020-21. His efficiency struggled at LBSU due to being asked to carry a large load offensively, but he should be in a better role at CBU. A 39% career outside shooter, Hunter is going to be difficult to keep off the floor – he’s a strong and talented lefty capable of making an All-WAC squad.

Replacing Gak up front won’t be easy. He was a revelation for a CBU squad that severely lacked depth, particularly in the frontcourt. In his stead steps Gonzaga transfer Pavel Zakharov, a former 4-star top 60 recruit out of Montverde looking to finally explode onto the collegiate scene. Zakharov was buried behind the Zags’ endless line of talented big men, so many haven’t seen what he’s capable of. Rest assured, Zakharov has the goods – he can put the ball on the deck, rebound, block shots, and shoot 3s all while conveniently standing 7-feet tall. He has unlimited potential in his first season in Riverside.

CBU also adds the services of UMBC transfer Dan Akin to bolster its frontcourt. Akin is an experienced big man with four years of college ball under his belt. He does the little things necessary to win games, particularly grabbing boards and playing solid, positional defense.

Croy’s remaining frontcourt depth consists of Malik Wade, Te’Jon Sawyer, and Juhlawnei Stone. Wade is the only one expected to see a consistent role; he’s a rising sophomore, solid rebounder, and postman.

The Lancer freshman class consists of two Aussies, Taran Armstrong (Tre’s bro) and Keanu Rasmussen, and California native Scotty Washington. Armstrong is the #2 rated prospect out of the Land Down Under and, like his brother, is a skilled guard who can handle it and shoot it. Rasmussen is a quick combo guard with a fearless style of play. Washington is a lengthy wing with oozing potential.

Bottom Line: Croy has done his best Randy Bennett impression by amassing a roster chock full of international talent. Only eight players on the CBU roster were born in the US, and only one of those hails from outside California. This has allowed Croy to bring some serious, and perhaps under-the-radar, talent to CBU. His Lancers are a dangerous bunch in 2021-22. If Zakharov can live up to his recruiting pedigree, CBU has the ability to compete for a top three WAC finish. The Lancers have depth at every position, experience, and loads and loads of shooting.

5. Seattle

Key Returners: Darrion Trammell, Riley Grigsby, Emeka Udenyi, Kobe Williamson, Aaron Nettles, Nate Robinson, Rip Economou, Vas Pandza
Key Losses: Jared Pearre
Key Newcomers: Cameron Tyson (Houston), Clancy Bird

Lineup:

Outlook: Seattle managed to play just nine WAC games last season as a result of the great COVID cloud. While the Redhawks were just a middling team they found a bona fide superstar in Darrion Trammell and split their regular season series with conference juggernauts Grand Canyon and New Mexico State. Jim Hayford returns for his 5th season at the helm – the Hawks have always been tough under his lead, but this could be the year they finally break out. Every starter returns for Seattle in 2021-22 and the school ranks 18th in returning minutes nationally per Bart Torvik.

Trammell led a so-so offense last season and will again in 2021-22. The Redhawks have been among America’s best teams at protecting the ball the last two seasons, ranking 1st in TO rate in 2019-20 and 23rd last year. Seattle employs a guard-centric attack that shoots plenty of 3s and revolves around ball screens and clear-outs for Trammell. While shot selection graded out at below average per ShotQuality, Trammell’s pure ability to score helped negate that. He’ll get some help from the transfer portal this season, but it’s still his show to run.

A 1st Team All-WAC selection and the league’s leading scorer, Trammell is arguably the best player in the conference heading into 2021-22. He led the WAC in usage and FD/40 while shooting over 40% from deep in league play and ranked 3rd in assist rate and 3rd in steal rate. His 0.965 PPP off ball screens was good for the 88th percentile nationally, per Synergy.

Trammell’s return is nothing short of a gift in the age of the transfer portal. He could have gone to any Power 6 team in the country and yet opted to stay with Hayford at Seattle. There’s no limit to his scoring potential this season, and his game breaking ability make the Redhawks a threat to beat anyone on any given night.

Riley Grigsby is Seattle’s other returning All-WAC selection. The sharpshooting wing exploded last season, pouring in nearly 18 PPG on 38% shooting from outside the arc. A versatile scorer and solid defender, Grigsby brings size to the perimeter and space to Seattle’s half-court attack.

Emeka Udenyi, Kobe Williamson, and Aaron Nettles are Hayford’s three other returning starters. Udenyi is one of the best rebounders in the league, but he’s very limited offensively (shot just 32% from the FT line last year). He plays the 5 despite standing 6’6” and uses muscle instead of shot-blocking to hold his own in the paint. Williamson is listed as a guard, but he profiles as a center. He led Seattle in block rate last season (4th in the WAC) and rebounds extremely well for a perimeter player. The Australian has a keen nose for the ball and is skilled enough to score in isolation on the offensive end. Plus, he rocks a dope red-head afro + mustache combo.

Nettles started every game in which he played last season, but injury held him out of nine games. He’s a good shooter who is best off the ball. His starting spot is in jeopardy with the arrival of Houston transfer Cameron Tyson, who played a key bench role for the Final Four Cougar squad. Tyson was a fireball at Idaho his freshman season, breaking the Big Sky freshman record for 3PM in a season in 2018-19 and acting as the team’s primary offensive weapon. At Houston, he turned more into a spot-up shooter, proving he could be hyper efficient in a lesser role. At Seattle, Tyson’s scoring role should increase but not quite to his Idaho level. He’ll be a perfect offensive complementary piece to Trammell in the backcourt.

Returning wings Nate Robinson, Rip Economou, and Vas Pandza will compete for minutes in a slightly more crowded backcourt. Robinson proved he could fill it up on certain nights, scoring 18 against CBU and then 27 against them two games later. Economou and Pandza are both sizable wings at 6’8” but neither shot well last season.

Frontcourt depth will be provided by redshirt freshman Viktor Rajkovic, who played just one game last year before going down with a knee injury, and true freshman Clancy Bird. Bird, a mullet-man, is a player to watch out for the next couple years; he’s a versatile 6’9” wing who can play essentially every position on the floor.

Bird and fellow Aussie froshie Brody Nunn both played ball with Kobe Williamson down under. Nunn is a money outside shooter who is sure to light the nets on fire if given any court time in ’21-22. Wazzu transfer Brandton Chatfield likely won’t see much time this season. JUCO transfer Kyree Brown, who hails from City College of San Francisco, the school Robinson, Trammell, and Udenyi come from, missed last season due to COVID. He might struggle to find time in a crowded backcourt.

Hayford’s defenses at Seattle have been so-so, and last year was no exception. The Redhawks ranked 3rd in the league in TO rate (44th nationally) but also fouled a ton (322nd in FT rate allowed). Seattle’s aggressive half-court style was feast or famine last year, but it generally held its own in the paint despite lack of top-end size. Having a stable of lengthy wings at his disposal, plus Tyson, a guy who played for Kelvin Sampson last season, should help improve Hayford’s defense in ’21-22.

Bottom Line: I don’t think anyone catches NMSU in the WAC this season, but Seattle has a real shot at finishing 2nd. That would mark the school’s first top 3 finish since joining the league in 2013-14. If nothing else, just watch Redhawk games for the spectacle that is Darrion Trammell.

6. Abilene Christian

Key Returners: Damien Daniels, Coryon Mason, Reggie Miller, Mahki Morris, Airion Simmons, Tobias Cameron, Logan McLaughlin, Immanuel Allen
Key Losses: Kolton Kohl, Joe Pleasant, Clay Gayman
Key Newcomers: Yuot Gai (JUCO), Furaha Cadeaux de Dieu (JUCO), Leonardo Bettiol, Stevie Smith (JUCO), Ja’Sean Jackson

Lineup:

Outlook: Everyone loves the underdog, the little guy, the one that defies the odds and overcomes. That was Abilene Christian in a nutshell last season, the 339th “biggest” team in the country and 68th “biggest” in the NCAA Tournament who knocked off the mighty Texas Longhorns in the Round of 64. ACU had a marvelous season under Joe Golding, finishing 24-5 and making the program’s second Dance in three years. Golding built the Wildcats into a winning program, taking a team that finished 348th in KenPom in its inaugural DI season back in 2013-14 to 84th last year. He was rewarded with the UTEP job, and his Wildcats were rewarded with an invite to the WAC (yes there are other factors here, just go with me on this).

Brette Tanner takes over for Golding, his top assistant and a coach who has been with the program since 2013. All indications point to Tanner doing things the same way as Golding, which is good news for Wildcat fans hungry for more wins in a better conference. ACU loses two All-Conference performers in Kolton Kohl and Joe Pleasant, but nearly everyone else is back from 2021’s NCAAT squad.

Everything for Abilene begins and ends with defense. Golding built a juggernaut of a defensive squad that ranked 26th nationally in KenPom’s Adj. DE rankings last year. All three of ACU’s starting guards – all of whom stand 6’0” or under – made the Southland’s All-Defense Team in 2021 and all are back for an encore performance. With Kohl’s departure, the backcourt is going to be even more important on this end this season. ACU relies on pressure from its guards, usually beginning right at the timeline, to make opponents uncomfortable and take away any chance of exploiting a size disadvantage.

Tanner will likely keep Golding’s aggressive style, which helped the Cats lead the country in TO rate in 2020-21.

Team defense and rotations are key for any team, but especially one that lacks size. ACU rotated, helped, and stepped in front of drivers as well as any team in the country last season. Just look at this movement against Texas in the Tourney:

That’s just excellent stuff, and if ACU can repeat that type of team defense mentality, it’s still going to be incredibly hard to beat the Wildcats in ’21-22.

ACU’s three returning starting guards are Damien Daniels, Coryon Mason, and Reggie Miller. Daniels led the Southland in steal rate last season (15th nationally) and paces the Cats in transition with his speed and fearlessness. Mason earned 3rd Team All-SLC honors after shooting nearly 49% from deep in league play. Like Daniels he can handle the ball and D up on the other end. His offensive role will grow considerably in ’21-22 without the services of Kohl and Pleasant. Miller ranked 5th in the SLC in steal rate and handles most of the PG duties. He dramatically improved his outside shot last season, which helped open up driving lanes to aid his 3rd-best FT rate in Southland play.

The Wildcat offense isn’t flashy. It’s an unselfish brand of basketball that features at least three ball handlers on the floor at one time. ACU ranked 2nd in the country in assist rate last season and played primarily through Kohl on the block. His absence will force the Cats to shift their attack somewhat, and we should expect a downtick in efficiency because of it. Kohl was a rock in the post ACU could lean on, and his presence helped the Cats get good looks near the rim and from the perimeter.

Tanner needs to find someone to help make up for Kohl’s lost production. Returning forward Airion Simmons, a BIG dude at 6’5” 265-pounds, likely steps into the starting five. Simmons can score in the post and stretch the floor while providing value on the glass. But he lacks top-line size, something ACU desperately needs up front. JUCO transfers Furaha Cadeaux de Dieu and Yuot Gai will be relied upon for major minutes due in part to their statures.

Cadeaux de Dieu is more of a traditional post, but he’s not devoid of perimeter skills. He likes to face up when catching at the elbow or on the block and should be a solid rebounder in the WAC. Gai is a 7-footer who can shoot the 3, a matchup nightmare waiting to happen. He suited up for the best team in the NJCAA last season, cashing open outside looks while blocking shots on the other end.

Returners Cameron Steele and Jameson Richardson will add depth to the frontcourt rotation, as will Italian freshman Leonardo Bettiol, another big man who leans more “post” than “pop”.

ACU had four more backcourt pieces returning in Mahki Morris, Tobias Cameron, Logan McLaughlin, and Immanuel Allen. All of them can shoot, and Morris, Cameron and Allen add a little more size to the wing. Allen’s season ended prematurely last year; he should see a bigger role in 2021-22 now fully healthy.

Freshman PG Ja’Sean Jackson is behind a ton of bodies in the backcourt, but JUCO wing Stevie Smith who hails from DI-feeder College of Southern Idaho could carve out a spot in Tanner’s rotation. Smith gives ACU something it doesn’t have: an extremely good, versatile athlete on the wing who can play multiple spots on the floor.  

Bottom Line: I was ready to tank ACU this season with the departure of Golding, Kohl, and Pleasant, but there’s more here than I initially thought. Tanner has been with the program for many years and will bring a sense of consistency, as will his 10 returners. Defense is easy to overlook, which is one of many reasons ACU flew under the radar last season. There’s little reason this team can’t be a top-100 defense once again, even with Kohl’s absence. That’s enough to keep the Cats competitive in the WAC and make them a dark horse to crash the top four of the league standings.

7. Sam Houston State

Key Returners: Demarkus Lampley, Tristan Ikpe, Donte Powers, Javion May, Jarren Cook, Kian Scroggins
Key Losses: Zach Nutall, Bryce Monroe, Manny Crump, Terryonte Thomas
Key Newcomers: Savion Flagg (Texas A&M), Kuba Karwowski (Utah State), Jaden Ray (JUCO), Javon Grant, Damon Nicholas Jr., Kevin Martina, Giovanni Emejuru

Lineup:

Outlook: Welcome to the WAC, Sam Houston State! The Bearkats are one of four Southland squads joining up with the once-small conference this season. Head coach Jason Hooten built the program into a legitimate SLC power, racking up double-digit conference wins in eight straight seasons. The grand prize still eludes Hooten, however, as his Bearkats have never tasted the sweet, sweet sugar that is the NCAA Tournament. Moving to a more competitive league certainly won’t make the journey any easier, but SHSU is no pushover and every bit capable of competing near the top of the WAC.

The Kats lose some major production from their respectable ’20-21 squad, chiefly Southland POY Zach Nutall and FOY Bryce Monroe. That is a lot of firepower to replace, but Hooten seems to reload as well as any coach in the mid-major realm; he scours the JUCO wire and DI transfer portal to field a talented team year in and year out.

By far the biggest name coming to campus this season is Savion Flagg, a 6’7” 4-year wing out of Texas A&M. Flagg was arguably A&M’s best player over the past three seasons (last year was a down year) and led the Aggies in scoring and rebounding as a sophomore back in 2018-19. He adds immediate size to the wing and/or 4-spot and gives SHSU a player through which it can run offense.

Flagg should be one of the best players in the WAC this season. He can score from anywhere, shoot the long-ball, and compete on the offensive glass.

Size was a major problem for the Kats last season. Hooten started a 6’6” guy at center along with four guys under 6’3”. That’s why his other DI addition is so… “huge”. Utah State transfer Kuba Karwowski gives the Kats a 7’2” anchor in the paint – though he was buried behind Neemias Queta at USU, Karwowski can be an effective 5-man in the WAC where he’ll rack up blocks and rebounds on a nightly basis.   

SHSU’s lineup size did have some advantages last year. Hooten likes to play uptempo and pressure on the defensive end, two things more easily accomplished with four guards on the floor surrounding a mobile 5. The Kats looked to score in transition and ran a ball screen motion offense in the halfcourt where its talented guards could pick apart the defense and score at will. Defensively, SHSU often picked up man in the full-court and looked for traps to force turnovers. The Kats ranked 37th nationally in TO rate, though their aggressive style did lead to a considerable amount of fouling.

Transitioning to the WAC is going to be an interesting thing to watch from a tempo perspective. Almost every team in the SLC played fast, and the league ranked 2nd nationally in tempo. But the WAC plays slower overall, ranking just 13th in tempo last season. It’s generally harder to beat better teams playing a helter skelter style, but Hooten seems to have indicated this offseason he still plans on pressuring and playing fast.

Guard play is key for Hooten’s style on both ends of the floor. Without Nutall and Monroe, the Kats will be reliant upon Demarkus Lampley to provide offense. Lampley was a 1st Team All-Southland selection last season after leading the conference in O-rating. He shot an impressive 56.7% from 2, 41.4% from 3, and 91.7% from the FT line, feasting off spot-ups and overly aggressive close-outs.

Lampley’s athleticism makes him a good defender as well. That’s something he has in common with returning PG Donte Powers, a menace of an on-ball defender and the presumed primary ball handler for the Kats this season. Powers struggled with TOs last year, but he moved the ball well and finished inside at a high rate. He’ll feel the heat for playing time from JUCO transfer Jalen “JD” Ray, who averaged 16.3 PPG and 5.9 APG last year in the NJCAA.

Returning guard Jarren Cook will fight for minutes on the wing. He’s a better shooter than his percentages indicated last year, and he can defend on the other end. Senior “guard” Javion May started 25 games last season, mostly at the “4” in Hooten’s miniature lineups. May plays like a forward despite standing just 6’2” – he rebounds well (5th in the SLC in OR%), attacks the basket with strength, and doesn’t shoot 3s at all. With Flagg’s arrival, May is likely relegated to bench duties.

6’6” forward Tristan Ikpe played the majority of SHSU’s minutes at the 5 in 2020-21. Ikpe started every game after arriving from the JUCO ranks and proved to be a good rebounder and rim protector despite his size. Like May, Ikpe uses his strength to bully weaker defenders – he’s a freight train barreling to the rim. Though Ikpe plays like a center, he can slide down and co-exist with Karwowski in the frontcourt. That duo along with Flagg would make SHSU extremely tough on the glass.

Sophomore Kian Scroggins was forced into action as a freshman due to the “F” under his position column. He played pretty well all things considered, shot only when necessary, and posted high rebounding rates. He’ll add depth to the frontcourt rotation along with international freshmen Kevin Martina (Switzerland) and Giovanni Emejuru (Great Britain). Martina is a lights-out stretch 4 / wing who averaged nearly 18 PPG and 9 RPG for the Swiss in FIBA’s U20 Tournament. Emejuru is a BIG forward with promising length and athleticism, though he is still a bit raw.

Freshman wing Damon Nicholas Jr. is SHSU’s highest rated recruit (3-star) and a top 15 prospect in the state of Texas. Nicholas can play multiple spots and has college-ready strength. He should play a role right away. Fellow freshman Javon Grant, a PG out of Pittsburg, KS, brings energy, shooting, and scoring to the fold.

Bottom Line: A step-up in league + the loss of its best player = rough 2021-22 season? Not so fast! The Bearkats have plenty of talent to compete in the WAC this year and are led by a coach in Hooten who is a) very good, and b) accustomed to replacing high-level players on a yearly basis. Don’t sleep on the Kittens in their first WAC season.

8. Utah Valley

Key Returners: Fardaws Aimaq, Trey Woodbury, Blaze Nield, Le’Tre Darthard, Jaden McClanahan, Tim Fuller, Colby Leifson
Key Losses: Jamison Overton, Evan Cole, Jordan Brinson
Key Newcomers: Connor Harding (BYU), Tim Ceaser (Coastal Carolina), Justin Harmon (JUCO), Jordan Battle

Lineup:

Outlook: Utah Valley was quietly one of the most surprising teams in the country last season. The Wolverines outperformed their preseason KenPom rank by a whopping 83 spots and took down New Mexico State and Grand Canyon in the same year for the first time since 2018. The school’s 2nd place WAC finish is its 3rd in four seasons. Mark Madsen enters his 3rd year at the helm trying to lift the program back up to the mid-major elite, a position it was in a short time ago under a different Mark, last name “Pope”.

The main reason for UVU’s unexpected competitiveness was the emergence of center Fardaws Aimaq, a role player at Mercer turned WAC Player of the Year. Aimaq led the COUNTRY in rebounds per game and led the WAC in rebounding rate on both ends of the floor. The Wolverines played through their star post on offense, via straight post-ups or feeding him off pick-n-rolls.

Aimaq ranked 2nd in the league in usage and 3rd in FT rate, and his Wolverines struggled mightily offensively when he was off the floor. But, there’s still much room for improvement. For starters, Aimaq shot just 55.8% at the rim and 40.9% on other 2PFGA, per Hoop-Math – that’s not good for your 7-foot star. Additionally, Aimaq ranked in just the 23rd percentile in the country in scoring on post-ups, putting up just 0.681 points per possession. His unorthodox shooting approach (loves to “push” the ball to the rim) probably had something to do with his inefficiency, but the skill and capacity to get better is clearly there. Aimaq will continue to improve on this end of the floor and be a dominant post presence in the WAC.

Oh, Aimaq also won WAC Defensive Player of the Year. He led the league in blocks per game and ranked 3rd in block rate, holding his own against some legit big men in WAC play. UVU was a solid defensive squad primarily because Aimaq owned the interior on this end of the floor.

Strangely, Aimaq didn’t win WAC Newcomer of the Year, which… makes no sense. But that’s a discussion for a different day.

UVU has more players than just Aimaq and one of those is Trey Woodbury, one of the squad’s few outside shooting threats last season. Woodbury was the only Wolverine to attempt more than 45 3Ps last season, and only four teams in the country had a lower 3PA rate as a team than UVU in 2020-21. A former top 100 recruit, Woodbury didn’t see much run at UNLV, but he has developed into one of the better pure scorers in the WAC. He’ll run point a fair amount and use his dynamism to score off ball screens from his pal Aimaq.

Blaze Nield is UVU’s other point guard option. The former BYU transfer ranked 5th in the WAC in assist rate but, like most Wolverines, struggled with turnovers. Nield doesn’t look for his shot offensively, but he did shoot 36% from deep on limited attempts. His fellow backcourt role player Le’Tre Darthard led the league in O-rating last season and shot 46% from downtown leading one to wonder why he didn’t shoot more. Perhaps another year in Madsen’s system will increase his confidence.

Rounding out the returning backcourt is Jaden McClanahan, a lightning quick backup PG, Colby Leifson, another BYU transplant who attempted 39 2s and zero 3s last season, and Asa McCord, a deeper wing option off the pine.

Evan Cole’s graduation leaves a massive hole at the 4-spot next to Aimaq. Given the latter’s dominance on the block and lack of outside shooting ability, returning big man Tim Fuller likely isn’t the best option to slot into that position. Fuller was a starter at Weber State but was relegated to a bench role at UVU behind Aimaq. When the pair shared the floor, the results weren’t pretty. Because of that, look for Coastal Carolina transfer Tim Ceaser to get a crack at the starting rotation. Ceaser started eight games for the Chanticleers last season and can stretch the floor a bit, rebound, and defend with his length.

On the wing, BYU transfer (yes, there’s three) Connor Harding is a likely candidate to fill in for Jamison Overton. Harding started 12 games for the Cougars last season and is a 36% career 3P shooter. He immediately improves this team’s spacing and overall outside shooting ability. Likewise, JUCO transfer Justin Harmon is going to be difficult to keep off the floor with his shooting ability and athleticism. Harmon averaged 16.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 3.5 APG for a good program last season. Freshman Jordan Battle, a Hargrave Military Academy graduate, brings even more athleticism, talent, and physicality to the backcourt.

Bottom Line: Utah Valley has one of the best players in the WAC and enough supporting pieces to compete at the top of the conference next season. NMSU will be the favorite, GCU is always tough, and SFA looks to make a splash coming over from the Southland, but don’t count out the Wolverines, led by the best dancer in the history of the world.

Tier 3

9. Tarleton State

Key Returners: Montre’ Gipson, Jonathan Jackson, Freddy Hicks, Shamir Bogues, Shakur Daniel, Tahj Small, Javonte Hopkins
Key Losses: Konstantin Dotsenko
Key Newcomers: Alejandro Vasquez (St. Bonaventure)

Lineup:

Outlook: Last season was nothing short of a success for Billy Clyde and his Texans. Gillispie took over a program transitioning to Division I in the midst of a pandemic with a roster featuring no continuity – to finish 10-10 overall (five wins against non-DI) and 5-7 in the WAC should be seen as an accomplishment. Tarleton was scrappy and aggressive last season, which should come as no surprise to those familiar with Gillispie’s coaching style. The Texans took down Utah Valley and gave Texas A&M and Grand Canyon scares in close contests. Despite what some fans of Kentucky and Texas Tech might think, Gillispie can flat-out coach, and with a full offseason and roster continuity serving as the wind to his sails, TSU could sneak into the middle of the WAC standings.

Gillispie is no dummy. He realized last year his Texans were, let’s say, a bit less talented than most Division I teams. Hence perhaps part of his reasoning in playing at one of the slowest paces in the country last season. TSU was a methodical half-court focused offensive team last year; the Texans moved the ball around the perimeter in a spread-out attack that emphasized driving the ball to the rim or hitting cutters through the lane. 3-point shooting was an afterthought, but TSU shot well when it let ‘em fly, ranking 25th nationally in 3P%. Offensive rebounding was eschewed last season, a combination of TSU’s severe lack of size and Gillispie’s preference for stopping the ball in transition. We should see a similar style in 2021-22 with a similar roster.

Defense is where Gillispie shines. His teams play an aggressive, in-your-face style that puts pressure on ball-handlers and forces turnovers. TSU ranked 11th nationally in defensive TO rate last year, which helped make up for their poor defensive rebounding and allowance of one of the highest 3PA rates in the country. Gillispie will use full-court pressure, as well, and he has a stable of guards to cycle through and throw at opposing ball-handlers.

TSU’s starting backcourt returns intact this season headlined by Montre’ Gipson, last year’s leading scorer and a WAC All-Newcomer and HM All-Conference honoree. Unlike most other players on the roster, Gipson was a picture of efficiency, ranking 3rd in the WAC in O-rating despite his high usage. Gipson shot 52.4% from deep against DI competition last season and took turns running the point. He’s a smooth player and a money shooter capable of making more than just an HM All-League team this season.

Shamir Bogues (brother of former SFA guard Shannon) and Shakur Daniel will flank Gipson in the starting backcourt this season. Bogues is a menace defensively, ranking 2nd in the WAC in steal rate in 2021-22. He’s not a good shooter, but he can set the table for Gipson and others. Daniel was an HM All-WAC selection last year after coming over from Southern Miss. He’s a versatile defender and a wing slasher on offense, capable of getting to the foul line with regularity.

Backup PG Javonte Hopkins will provide solid depth once again this season. Hopkins is an athletic, quick guard who can shoot the 3. Joey Madimba will look for a larger role as a sophomore; he’s a nice two-way option off the pine. Bonnies transfer Alejandro Vasquez should push for starts in his first season in Stephenville. He’ll be one of the Texans’ better shooters and comes to the WAC after playing major minutes for the best team in the A-10.

Frontcourt size was a major issue for TSU last season. Gillispie didn’t play anyone over 6’7” on a regular basis, and his starting 4 and 5 this season look to be the same as 2020-21. Jonathan Jackson is back for a bonus year. He transferred from PVAMU last year and was a regular starter for the Texans. Jackson ranked 3rd in the WAC in usage when he saw the floor, but he is not an efficient player. His best assets are his athleticism and ability to put up a fight near the rim on the defensive end. Rebounding will be a major improvement point for Jackson this season – he posted a sub-1% OR% (that is terrible for anyone, let alone a forward) and averaged more assists than boards in 2020-21.

Freddy Hicks will start at the 4 fresh off his WAC Freshman of the Year season. Hicks is really a true wing, but he’s been forced into exclusively the 4-man role at TSU. Like most players on the roster Hicks can defend and can get to the foul line on the other end. He ranked 2nd in the league in FT rate as a rookie. Former Troy transfer Tahj Small, another HM All-WAC honoree, was a partial starter last season and split time between the 3 and 4. Small is a capable outside shooter and was the 4th best defensive rebounder in the WAC by rate last season.

Adding size was clearly a priority for Billy Clyde this offseason. He went out and grabbed three 6’8”+ forwards in Cameron Jernigan, Kylon Owens, and Bryce Brown as well as a couple bigger wings. Of those three “bigs”, Brown, a JUCO import, seems most likely to have the highest immediate impact. He can compete on the glass and step out past the arc when needed. Owens will serve as a rim protector, but he’s pretty limited offensively, as evidenced by his 1.9 PPG scoring average at Blinn College. Jernigan, a true freshman, will add depth in his first season.

6’6” freshman wings Jayshawn Moore and Garrett Levesque have chances to contribute right away. Moore, initially a CMU commit out of high school, is long and projects as a multi-positional defender. Levesque is an athletic wing who can shoot it and put the ball on the deck.

JUCO point guard Jaheim Holden, a Chicago native, is quick and can get to the hole or pull-up for a nice lefty jumper. Noah McDavid was a high-scoring guard in high school. Chase Lane is a solid athlete with ball skills, but likely limited in the DI space.

Bottom Line: Last year the whole was greater than the sum of TSU’s individual parts, and that’s what we should expect in 2021-22 as well. On paper this isn’t a team that make you shake in your little space boots, but Tarleton is a very well-coached squad that plays a methodical brand of offense and stingy brand of defense. That combination will always lead to surprising competitiveness and surprising upsets.

10. UT Rio Grande Valley

Key Returners: Quinton Johnson II, LaQuan Butler, Ricky Nelson, Malik Lawrence-Anderson, Marek Nelson, Jeff Otchere
Key Losses: Sean Rhea, Javon Levi, Uche Dibiamaka, Chris Freeman, Anthony Bratton, Connor Raines
Key Newcomers: Mike Adewunmi (SIUE), Justin Johnson (Southern Miss), Xavier Johnson (Chicago State), Sai Witt (DII), BJ Simmons (JUCO), Donte Houston Jr.

Lineup:

Outlook: UTRGV suffered through more than just COVID and basketball losses last season. In February, head coach Lew Hill tragically passed away a day after the Vaqueros’ loss to Texas Southern. There are many good articles about Hill, including his time as an assistant under Lon Kruger, but here’s an all-encompassing remembrance by Benjamin Zacher at Busting Brackets.

The UTRGV athletic department opted not to stick with interim head coach Jai Steadman and instead hired former Austin Peay head coach Matt Figger. Many thought the move by Figger was an odd one, but it’s probably safe to assume he’s making more money down in Edinburg. Figger seems like a great hire for a school in transition – he led the Governors to their three best OVC records since 2011 before a down year last season and hails from the Frank Martin coaching tree. UTRGV returns a solid core of veterans to pair with some talented newcomers plucked by Figger from the transfer portal.

Consistency was lacking all season in 2020-21 for the Vaqueros. They used ten different starting lineups and only three players managed to suit up for all 19 games on the schedule. Now (hopefully) free of the COVID environment, we should see a more consistent on-court product, but Figger does have several options to slot into the starting five and the regular rotation.

Returning guards Quinton Johnson II, LaQuan Butler, and Ricky “Doc” Nelson all have expectations for major minutes in 2021-22. Johnson earned HM All-WAC honors last season and proved to be a reliable rebounder, defender, and scorer while adding size to the perimeter. His biggest focus this season will be efficiency – Johnson hasn’t posted an O-rating over 87 in his two years and he’s a sub-42% shooter from 2, sub-27% from 3, and sub-60% from the FT line for his career. Butler, a former SELA transfer, was used as a sparkplug off the bench last season. He led the WAC in percentage of team shots taken when on the floor, meaning he shot the ball just about every time he touched it. Butler ranked 4th in the league in steal rate, and his quickness was key to UTRGV’s full-court press success in ’20-21. Nelson came over from Weber State last year and gave the Vaqueros steady minutes at the 1 and 2. He plays within himself and can act as a game manager / table setter at the point of attack.

Figger could go for a safe choice like Nelson to run point and bring Butler off the bench again for instant offense, or he could roll with Chicago State transfer Xavier Johnson. Johnson was CSU’s MVP last season, though, yes, that isn’t saying a whole lot. Despite the Cougars’ woes Johnson is a legitimately good basketball player who has the ability to start and produce for UTRGV this season. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares on a team that can actually win games.

Transfers Mike Adewunmi (SIUE), Justin Johnson (Southern Miss), and BJ Simmons (JUCO) will all play large roles this season. Adewunmi began his career at Houston and started every game for SIUE last year. He was excellent for a struggling Cougars squad, impacting the game on both ends while often leading the team in scoring.

Adewunmi should be one of UTRGV’s best scorers this season.

Johnson was a top 15 JUCO recruit going to USM last year. He started six games for the Golden Eagles, impacting the game primarily on the defensive end where his length helped him bother multiple positions. Simmons has played for three different junior colleges and averaged 17.5 PPG last season. He’ll add shooting to a team in desperate need of it.

The starting frontcourt should be locked in with the return of Marek Nelson and Jeff Otchere. Nelson, a former WKU Hilltopper, started eight games last season and contributed to several areas on the floor. He’s very athletic and can put the ball on the deck from the 4-spot. Otchere is one of the best shot-blockers in the country. He’s a former America East Defensive Player of the Year with Stony Brook and posted an outrageous 19.4 block rate last season in WAC play.

Otchere also gobbles boards, ranking 4th last year in OR% in the WAC, and he’ll have a full season to assert his will on the league in 2021-22.

Returning forward Malik Lawrence-Anderson will compete for minutes with DII transfer Sai Witt and freshman Donte Houston Jr. Lawrence-Anderson is mostly a rebounder and defender when on the court. Witt averaged 15.9 PPG and 8.0 RPG at Lincoln last season; he’s a big post presence who could have an impact at the DI level. Houston, a 3-star prospect, committed to Figger at Austin Peay and followed his coach down south. With a prep year under his belt Houston looks to be ready for immediate minutes in his rookie season.

Figger’s other three freshmen need some seasoning before scoring major roles. Forwards Sahavaul Butters and RayQuan Taylor bolster the frontcourt, while Chicago PG Ismail Habib will fill out the backcourt depth chart. Since I’m on a South Park kick right now, all I hope for is that Butters’s teammates just call him “Butters”. On the court he can rebound, shoot, and score. Taylor also followed Figger from APSU; he’s a multi-positional threat who is still developing. Habib has a swagger to his game and plays with toughness and confidence, perfect for a Frank Martin disciple.

Figger and Hill’s track records are polar opposites in terms of which end of the floor their teams tend to excel in. Figger had great offenses at Austin Peay (having Terry Taylor helped) and peaked at #55 in KenPom in 2018-19. His teams up north were always forces on the offensive glass and tended to pound the ball to the rim versus settling for 3s. Juxtaposed to Hill, Figger likes playing in the halfcourt. UTRGV ran like hell under Hill, ranking 7th in the country in FGA% in transition. Unfortunately, the prioritization of transition did not help UTRGV’s offensive product, as the Vaqueros were among the worst in the country on this end in 2020-21. A team 27% 3P% didn’t help the cause.

Hill’s teams at UTRGV were always tough defensively. He instituted full-court pressure and his Vaqueros forced plenty of turnovers on a nightly basis. Last season UTRGV ranked 6th in TO rate nationally and led the WAC in TO rate, block rate, and steal rate. Figger’s squad last season forced turnovers as well (26th nationally), but APSU ranked 302nd overall in adjusted efficiency. He’ll likely maintain some full-court pressure and throw in some zone looks, but it won’t be near to the aggressiveness we saw under Hill. It also hurts that the Vaqueros lost their best perimeter defender, Javon Levi, an All-Defense selection in 2021.

Bottom Line: Figger won’t turn the Vaqueros into a WAC contender overnight, and he has a ton of work to do in terms of instilling a new culture and getting multiple new pieces to gel into a cohesive unit. UTRGV might start slow out of the gate, but look for improvement as the season progresses. Figger brings with him a good reputation as a program leader and has already proven his ability to turn a school’s fortunes around at his previous stop.

11. Lamar

Key Returners: Kasen Harrison, Davion Buster, Ellis Jefferson, Lincoln Smith, Corey Nickerson
Key Losses: Anderson Kopp, Avery Sullivan, Quinlan Bennett, David Muoka
Key Newcomers: Jordyn Adams (Austin Peay), CJ Roberts (New Mexico State), Xavier Ball (JUCO), Valentin Catt (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Lamar limped out to a 4-17 (3-10) start and then rattled off six straight wins prior to ending its season in the Southland conference tournament against eventual NCAAT rep Abilene Christian. That wasn’t enough to save Tic Price’s job, who was let go after seven seasons at the helm in Beaumont. Last season aside, Price did well at Lamar – his Cardinals were consistently contending near the top of their league, but 2020-21’s tire fire was too much to overcome.

Alvin Brooks takes over for Price. Brooks played for Lamar back in the late 70s / early 80s and was an assistant here for five years straight out of college. He’s held numerous assistant coaching positions around the state of Texas and was the head coach of Houston from 1993-98. On the surface this appears to be a great hire for a program looking to start strong in its first season in the WAC.

Per Lamar’s team website (and likely many other sources), Brooks wants to “play an open, fast-paced style” this season. Most coaches in the offseason say something along these lines, but we’ll take Brooks at his word that the Cardinals will be a more uptempo team in 2021-22. Price zigged while other Southland schools zagged last year, slowing down his team’s pace in a league that prioritizes running. Lamar’s offense struggled last season, but it wasn’t necessarily because of Price’s speed change. The Cardinals had the worst eFG% in the league, unable to hit outside shots or finish inside. Shooting help is on the way via the transfer portal and recruiting trail, and Lamar has one of the deepest backcourts in the WAC this season. This plus Brooks’s change in pace will hopefully spark better offensive efficiency.

Brooks emphasizes the defensive end of the floor. Like most coaches he wants his team to be physical and compete on this end. Lamar loses last year’s Southland DPOY, David Muoka, but it does have plenty of sticky on-ball perimeter defenders to stop action at the point of attack. Frontcourt depth is shaky this season, unless one of the newcomers can be impactful right away.

Lamar’s backcourt will be its strength this season with the return of sophomore Kasen Harrison, senior Davion Buster, and 5th year Ellis Jefferson plus the addition of transfers Jordyn Adams and CJ Roberts. That’s five guards who could start for several programs around the country. Brooks’s lineups are likely to feature three of these five at any time, which will put stress on opposing defenses while giving up a some size on the other end.

Harrison led all Southland freshmen in scoring last season and kept his turnovers relatively in check, a great sign for a rookie with high usage. Though his shot selection was questionable at times (Lamar ranked 307th in shot quality per ShotQuality), he proved he could score from anywhere on the floor, shooting 48% from deep on low volume and ranking 7th in the SLC in FT rate.

The lefty guard has a bright future at Lamar and should enjoy a big sophomore season.

Buster and Jefferson are the veteran leaders. Buster is a career 38%+ 3P shooter with an unorthodox catapult-like stroke. He can handle the ball and initiate the offense or play off the rock and function as a spot-up threat. Jefferson started 21 games last year but might come off the bench in ’21-22 with the arrival of the aforementioned transfers. He’s a rock-solid backup PG option and a plus defender, ranking in the top ten in the SLC in steal rate in each of the past two seasons.

Adams could be a star in the WAC, two years removed from a brilliant 2019-20 campaign at Austin Peay where he captured the OVC’s Freshman of the Year hardware and earned a spot on the All-Conference 1st Team. Something was weird in the water at APSU last year and it affected Adams’s game as well as his teammates’. His numbers tanked and he posted an ugly 88.2 O-rating while taking a number of questionable shots. A fresh start will do Adams some good, and Brooks seems like an ideal mentor for a guard gushing with offensive potential.

Roberts was a late add in September from WAC foe New Mexico State. He started his career at Mizzou before joining the JUCO ranks for a season. At Lamar, Roberts should compete for starts and act as an offensive spark plug who can score or run the offense.

If Lamar’s frontcourt was as robust as its backcourt, we’d be talking about the Cardinals competing near the top of the WAC. Unfortunately – on paper – Lamar’s frontcourt is weak, especially when stacked against some of the better teams in the conference. Returning forwards Lincoln Smith and Corey Nickerson will play roles in the rotation and could see some starts. Smith is an athletic forward who can run the floor and play a handful of positions. Nickerson is long and can rebound and block shots.

JUCO transfers Xavier Ball and Valentin Catt will be counted on to provide meaningful production up front. Ball is a stretch forward who averaged 13 PPG and canned 42% of his outside shots at Logan College last season. Catt is a former 3-star recruit who brings potential as a rim protector with his impressive size and length.

Three freshmen make up Brooks’s inaugural recruiting class. Avontez Ledet is an athletic guard who can shoot, but he’ll be buried behind the slew of other backcourt options. Deiman Reyes is a 3-star post-man who brings athleticism and strength at the 5. He needs some polish, but the building blocks are there. Brock McClure, a Price commit, is the best player in his high school’s history and its only DI commit. He’s a lights-out shooter who can contribute to several facets on the floor.

Bottom Line: Lamar should be scrappy in its first WAC season, but the Cardinals shouldn’t be expected to be a top-half team quite yet. Brooks needs to time to acclimate and build his program, and his experience suggests he’ll be able to field a very good team in a couple years. Lamar’s backcourt will be one of the best in the league in spite of its likely poor shot selection, but its frontcourt will ultimately hold it back from making a run to the top of the conference standings.

12. Dixie State

Key Returners: Cameron Gooden, Hunter Schofield, Frank Staine, Jacob Nicolds, Andre Mulibea, Isaiah Pope, Trevon Allfrey
Key Losses: Dason Youngblood, Jarod Greene
Key Newcomers: Kolby Lee (BYU)***, Dancell Leter (JUCO), Jamaal Barnes (JUCO)

*** Lee is not on the roster as of this publishing date… that is… large

Lineup:

Outlook: Dixie State fared pretty well in its first season in Division I – heck, it fared better than most teams from a COVID perspective. The Trailblazers were the only WAC squad to play their full 14-game conference slate, during which they went 4-10 with impressive wins over Cal Baptist, Seattle, and Utah Valley. From a betting standpoint, DSU was friendly to degenerates, going 11-8 against the number, one of many indications the Trailblazers outperformed expectations.

Head coach Jon Judkins is back for his 17th season at the helm. He played for DSU back in the ‘80s and he’s led the program through its NJCAA and DII days. Now in DI, Judkins has access to higher-level talent, and he’s taken full advantage in his 2021 recruiting class, grabbing some promising newcomers from the HS ranks and the transfer portal. With nearly everyone returning from last season, DSU has a fighting chance to finish in the middle of a growing league.

The ‘Blazers were true to their name on the court last season, playing at a blazing offensive pace. Only four teams in the country had a shorter average possession length than Dixie on offense last season; the Trailblazers looked to score in transition at every opportunity. Judkins especially likes pushing off the defensive glass and getting out in the open floor. While this can result in easy looks on the offensive end, it can be a double-edged sword with early leak-outs resulting in easy second-chance opportunities for the opposing team.

The defensive glass killed DSU last season. The Trailblazers ranked 323rd nationally in DR%, a result of their lack of size combined with their eagerness to run the other way. Judkins also employs several zone looks (2-3, 1-3-1, matchup), and his Trailblazers are in zone about a quarter of the time. It’s inherently more difficult to rebound out of a zone, and while DSU was better defensively from a points per possession standpoint when it went zone, the glass was vulnerable. Dixie is bigger this year and more athletic, so there’s reason to believe it’ll be improved on this end of the floor in 2021-22.

Dixie brings back its most important pieces from its ’20-21 squad. HM All-WAC honorees Cameron Gooden and Hunter Schofield return to man the backcourt and frontcourt, respectively. Gooden started every game last season at PG after arriving to St. George from the JUCO ranks. He ranked 5th in the WAC in steal rate and 7th in FT rate, getting to the bucket and to the line regularly. While turnovers were an issue, Gooden was Dixie’s leading scorer and one of the few guys who could create his own shot. He also graded out as “excellent” scoring off ball screens last season, per Synergy.

Schofield was DSU’s best all-around player last season, a three-level scorer from the 4 or 5 who can stretch the floor or score in the post. He competes on the glass and is a nice pick-n-pop partner to Gooden and the other Dixie guards.

Schofield should see a lot more time at the 4 this season with the massive addition of BYU transfer Kolby Lee. A former 4-star recruit, Lee was a 2-year starter for the Cougars and will bring post scoring, size, and rebounding to the DSU frontline. Expect big things from Lee in his first WAC season; he should be one of the better forwards in the conference.

Four of Judkins’s positionless wings are back as well. Frank Staine, Jacob Nicolds, Andre Mulibea, and Isaiah Pope are all about 6’6” and can play multiple spots on the floor. Staine does a bit of everything on the court: he defends, scores, and distributes. Last season’s poor 3P% is not indicative of his true ability – in 2019-20 he hit 45% of his 3PA. Nicolds skews more towards the frontcourt and is a marksman from the 3P line, hitting 44% of his tries last year. He also can hold his own in the post and on the glass. Mulibea is a rising SO looking to break out in his second collegiate season. A highly regarded recruit, Mulibea has the tools to be a valuable player on both ends. Pope is a big guard who can defend and act as a secondary ball handler offensively. Like Staine, he’s a better shooter than his previous year’s splits suggest. Expect improvement from Pope in ’21-22.

The incumbents can’t get complacent in their roles, because Judkins has considerable talent flowing into Dixie this season. JUCO transfers Dancell Leter and Jamaal Barnes could both play huge roles this year. Leter is a rebounder and another guy who can play several spots on the floor. His athleticism and length should bring an immediate improvement to the defensive end when he’s on the court. Barnes averaged 18.8 PPG two years ago in JUCO and can shoot from anywhere in the gym. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Barnes usurp the starting 2-guard spot on opening day.

From the high school ranks come combo guard Noa Gonsalves and Trey Edmonds. Gonsalves is a shooter who can handle the rock, while Edmonds is a big, strong post with plenty of capacity for development.

Bottom Line: I ain’t just whistlin’ dixie, folks, this program is quickly getting better and Judkins is an excellent coach. While DSU likely doesn’t crack the top 5 of the WAC this season or even next, it feels like an inevitability the Trailblazers will compete near the top of the league one day.

Tier 4

13. Chicago State

Key Returners: Coreyoun Rushin, Andrew Lewis, Carlo Marble, Noah Bigirumwami
Key Losses: Xavier Johnson, Levelle Zeigler, Rajeir Jones, Isaiah Lewis, Jordan Polynice, Ke’Sean Davis, Kalil Whitehead, Lou Demuth, Aaris-Monte Bonds
Key Newcomers: Favour Chukwukelu (JUCO), Brandon Betson (JUCO), Dominique Alexander (NAIA), Jincho Rivera, JJ Harris, Jahsean Corbett, Teddy Bayi Ba Mandeng (JUCO), Ali Abdou Dibba

Lineup:

Outlook: Chicago State has unfortunately become the butt of many a joke in the college basketball realm, but the fact of the matter is any team in the country would perform the same under similar circumstances. The program and the school have been under financial strain for a long time now and participating in the WAC has done the Cougars zero favors traveling-wise. CSU played just nine games in 2020-21 (0-9) before suspending its season, and it didn’t play any conference contests. COVID issues severely reduced the number of available players, and even former head coach Lance Irvin opted out prior to the start of the season. In January it was announced CSU would leave the WAC in June 2022, a decision that makes as much geographical sense as it does financial. It’s eventual destination, however, is still unknown.

For this season, at least, the Cougars will still be playing games in the WAC, and they also have a brand-new head coach. Gerald Gillion takes over for Irvin after serving a season under Bucky McMillan at Samford where he was touted as an ace recruiter. Gillion also spent time as an assistant for Tennessee Tech for three years prior to arriving at Samford. He has a tall task at CSU – the Cougars haven’t won a WAC game since 2018, going 0-30 under Irvin in league play. CSU has won just two WAC games since 2015, amassing a record of 2-60 in that timespan.

The roster is mostly gutted from last season, but that’s not really a bad thing consider the caliber of squad CSU put on the floor in 2020-21. Two legitimate DI talents do return in Coreyoun Rushin and Andrew Lewis, who will be counted on to lead the team on both ends of the floor. Rushin played just the final two contests last season, scoring 17 points against Drake in CSU’s final game. He was a partial starter at Idaho State prior to last year and a highly touted JUCO recruit before that. Rushin is listed as a guard on the roster, but he will play a lot of “4” in Gillion’s lineups. CSU has just two players listed as a “forward” on their website.

Lewis was arguably CSU’s best player last season, but he played just two games after going down with an injury against Illinois. He’ll likely lead the Cougars in scoring and handle the ball as much as required.

Carlo Marble started four games last year in what was an inefficient season for him. He’s a two-way wing who racked up a fair number of steals in ’20-21. Big man Noah Bigirumwami is also back after stepping away from the team in 2020-21. He’ll likely start due primarily to his size.

Sorting out the most impactful newcomers is tough, but hey I’ll give it a shot.

JUCO guards Favour Chukwukelu and Brandon Betson will almost certainly play key roles this season. Chukwukelu averaged 17.8 PPG and shot a blistering 46.7% from downtown for his JUCO last year – that shooting number is particularly a breath of fresh air for a program that hasn’t shot over 31.5% from 3 since 2014(!). Betson also averaged over 17 PPG last year and can also score and shoot.

NAIA transfer Dominique Alexander averaged over 28 PPG last season, but it’s hard to tell how that will translate to a major step-up in competition. He’s a quick, lefty PG with sticky handles. Freshmen guards JJ Harris and Kedrick Green could see some run in their first collegiate seasons. Harris is a physical guard who developed early and was on some recruiting radars as a HS sophomore. Green is a pure PG from the Bronx who Gillion appears to favor. He’s a THICK lead guard – I’m not convinced he’s either a) 6’2” or b) 180 pounds, as his roster bio suggests.

CSU does have a Power 6 transfer! Unfortunately, it’s from the Clemson track team, not the basketball team. Anthony Hamilton will add experience to the Cougars but it’s unclear how much he can actually contribute on the floor. One thing is for sure, though – the dude can SOAR. Hamilton has plenty of YouTube videos on the interwebs showing off his batshit insane hops and dunking ability – he can look down at the rim despite standing just 6’2”.

Freshmen Robert Pierce Blount and Bryce Johnson round out the PG/SG rotation.

On the wing, freshmen Jahsean Corbett, Jincho Rivera, and Ali Abdou Dibba will all compete for playing time. Corbett can play multiple positions and is a long, lefty wing. Rivera, a Puerto Rico native, has a college ready frame and length as well. Dibba is a two-way athlete and very quick; he could have a bright basketball future in front of him.

Up front, the only other forward on the squad besides Bigirumwami is JUCO transfer Teddy Bayi Ba Mandeng. Mandeng was a double-double machine at his previous college, but he’ll mostly be a rebounder at this level.

I won’t speculate too much on what style Gillion will bring to both ends of the floor. Offensively, CSU was a jump-shot reliant team last year and played heavily in isolation and off ball screens. Its talent was focused disproportionately in its backcourt, so guys like Xavier Johnson had to force shots and creation on every possession. Samford played extremely fast last year, but that might not be the wisest play for Gillion at CSU, where his team will be the least talented squad in every matchup this season.

Defensively, CSU played a ton of zone last season but still couldn’t get back to stop transition opportunities. The Cougars were arguably the worst transition defense in the country in ’20-21. They have a little more athleticism and talent this season, but there’s still a dearth of size up front.

Bottom Line: There’s nowhere to go but up this season for Gillion and the Cougars. Even one win in WAC play would be a success. Gillion appears to be a great hire for a program in need of a major turnaround. Let’s hope CSU can put together a competent basketball product (and play a full season) in 2021-22.