- Ky McKeon

Key Returners: Collin Gillespie, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Jermaine Samuels, Justin Moore, Cole Swider, Bryan Antoine, Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree
Key Losses: Saddiq Bey
Key Newcomers: Caleb Daniels (Tulane), Eric Dixon (Redshirt)

Lineup:

Outlook:

When I lay my head down to sleep at night, I don’t dream of Mena Suvari in a pile of red roses – I dream of Villanova’s offense in a pile of red roses. The Cats run arguably the most beautiful offense in the entire country, an offense that prioritizes spacing and shooting threes. Since 2014, Jay Wright’s offense has ranked 21st, 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 1st, 16th, and 15th nationally and last year ranked 9th in percentage of points scored from behind the arc:

The current Big East (excluding UConn) formed in 2014 and since then it’s been dominated by Wright’s Wildcats. Villanova has shared or won outright six of the conference’s seven regular season titles since the league’s inception and earned a 1 or 2 seed in the Big Dance five of those seven years. The Cats lose just one key player from last year’s squad, Big East 1st Teamer and future Lottery pick Saddiq Bey. With everyone else returning from an extremely young roster, Nova should be the HEAVY favorites to once again capture the conference crown.

Wright’s 4-out (sometimes 5-out) offense requires every player on the floor to be able to handle and pass the rock, but it really sings (as most offenses do) when it has a top tier point guard. Concerns arose with the departure of Jalen Brunson in 2018 and graduation of Phil Booth in 2019 – who would step up and man the point guard position? Many assumed Collin Gillespie, the heir apparent to the PG throne, didn’t have the chops to be the next great Nova guard. Boy were they wrong. Gillespie exploded last season on his way to earning 2nd Team All-Big East honors – he took on a higher usage role in the offense and took over primary ball handling duties after splitting with Booth his sophomore season. Despite the bigger burden, Gillespie’s turnover rate plummeted, and his shooting remained fairly consistent across the board. Heading into 2020-21, Gillespie is on the shortlist for Big East Player of the Year and is even in the All-American discussion. What makes Gillespie so good is the way he keeps his head up while handling the ball – he pounds the rock, probes the defense, makes the right play, and takes good shots. His stroke is also a thing of beauty:

With CG running the offense, Nova basketball is in good hands.

Gillespie’s backup, Bryan Antoine, was actually assumed to be the next man up at the PG position when he came to school as a top 15 recruit last year. A torn shoulder labrum suffered in high school severely limited Antoine’s impact, allowing him to play only 15 games (and never likely at 100%). If he’s healthy this season, he could be a major x-factor for a Wildcat team very much in the hunt for another national title. Antoine can play both on and off the ball and is dynamic and athletic enough to score on just about anyone.

Elsewhere in the backcourt, look for sophomore Justin Moore, a Big East All-Freshman honoree last season, to resume his starting role at the 2-spot. Moore, a former top 50 recruit, is a sniper from distance, shooting 39.6% last year on 154 3P attempts. But Moore’s game isn’t limited to catch-and-shoot – he’s more than capable at scoring off the bounce and getting into the paint. His versatility makes him a perfect pairing with Gillespie. Wright also welcome’s Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels to the fold this year after Daniels sat out last season due to transfer rules. Daniels was the Green Wave’s best player two years ago and ranked 6th in the AAC in usage. Like Antoine, Daniels can play on or off the ball and is a flat-out scorer from all three levels. Wright can use Daniels at the 3 in smaller starting lineups or off the bench in an “instant offense” role. Depth, especially at the guard position, was extremely thin for Nova last season. With Daniels and Antoine now fully in the mix, Wright has plenty more rotation options at his disposal.

6’7” senior Jermaine Samuels will see the lion’s share of minutes on the wing. Samuels is an all-around glue guy who does a bit of everything on the floor: he plays defense, rebounds, passes well, takes care of the ball, and scores when needed. Last year, Samuels led the Big East in 2PFG% but shot just 21% from deep, an area he’ll no doubt look to improve upon. Samuels’ size allows him to play the 4 in smaller lineups and take his defender into the post when he has a mismatch.

Junior wing Cole Swider, another 3/4 tweener, should see an uptick in usage this season after a much-improved shooting campaign in 2019-20. Swider shot 35.2% from deep last year after converting just 28.3% of his freshman long-ball tries. Fellow junior wing Brandon Slater also likely sees more run after a disappointing second season.

Villanova received some welcome NBA Draft news this offseason to partially offset the Bey departure: sophomore big man Jeremiah Robinson-Earl has decided to suit up for another season. JRE was a top 15 recruit in the 2019 class and earned a spot with Moore on the Big East’s All-Freshman squad. His return is one of the main reasons nearly every outlet has the Cats sitting comfortably in their top three. Offensively, JRE was excellent in his freshman season, proving he could score on the block, drive by slower bigs, and even shoot the three.

He rebounded well enough, but defense and rim protection are clearly two areas of improvement heading into 2020-21. Nova as a team was poor defending the pick-n-roll and post-ups, two play types in which JRE was heavily involved. With his versatility and foot speed, there’s no reason to not expect at least a marginal improvement on the defensive end.  

Backing up JRE will be senior Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree and redshirt freshman Eric Dixon. DCR saw his playing time disappear when JRE came to town despite ranking 6th in the country in O-rating as a sophomore. DCR knows his role on offense, rebounds well, and provides the Cats with much-needed shot blocking. Dixon was a top 75 recruit coming out of high school last year. He’s a BIG forward at 6’8” 270 lbs., able to back just about anyone down on the block. Despite his massive size, Dixon has a feathery touch from the mid-range area and is far more versatile than he looks. Expect both backup bigs to carve out a role in this year’s iteration of the Cats.

Nova’s defense is usually strong under Wright, with 2018-19 being the lone exception in recent years. Last season, the Cats ranked 2nd in the Big East in defense per KenPom and led the conference in DR%. Wright’s focus is on shutting down the three-point line, which Nova executed to near-perfection. However, this focus allowed plenty of opportunities for opposing offenses at the rim in addition to the aforementioned PnR and post struggles. Bey was just an OK defender by an advanced metric perspective, so I expect to once again see Nova amongst the top 30 or so defenses in the country in 2020-21.

Bottom Line: The Weave unanimously named Villanova our #2 team in the country this season behind the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Nova is deep, talented, and experienced and led by one of the best point guards in the nation in Gillespie. Wright’s team should steamroll an overall down Big East and be in a favorable        position to earn a 1-seed in March.