-Matt Cox

Key Returners: Chris Smith**, Tyger Campbell, David Singleton, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Jalen Hill, Cody Riley, Jake Kyman, Jules Bernard
Key Losses: Prince Ali
Key Newcomers: Johnny Juzang (Kentucky), Jaylen Clark

*This preview assumes Chris Smith ultimately stays in the draft. Publicly, Smith remains squarely on the fence, but our intel leads us to believe he will not be returning to Westwood

**UPDATE 8/3: Chris Smith is in fact returning to school, which completely shifts the paradigm of the Bruins’ 2021 outlook. As the preview below discusses, Smith was instrumental to UCLA’s late season surge

Lineup:

Outlook: My preseason Pac-12 rankings have been a never-ending game of musical chairs. Rosters all across the league are in constant flux, with key transfers and NBA draft declarations reshaping the pecking order on a weekly basis. Once upon a time, the Bruins sat in first chair in these esteemed rankings, boasting a roster that had all the makings of a Pac-12 frontrunner. Then, Mick Cronin let his first big catch in the West Coast recruiting sea, Daishen Nix, slither away to the G-League, stripping the Bruins of a paradigm-shifting talent. And as of today (see publishing date above), our crystal ball shows Chris Smith, last year’s Pac-12 Most Improved Player, keeping his name in the NBA draft. Cronin doesn’t necessarily need a star-studded roster to get the job done, but writing off Smith and Nix’s departures as meaningless? I just can’t get there…

Cronin handed his critics an endless supply of ammo right out of the gate. The Bruins flopped around in the non-conference, entering conference play with a dismal 8-9 record – I don’t think John Wooden ever lost to Cal State Fullerton and Hofstra at home, but feel free to fact check me on that. UCLA was pronounced dead by mid-January, but ‘the Croninberg’ engineered a swift 180. From February 7th onward, the Bruins went to another level – per barttorvik.com, the Bruins played like a top-20 team over the last four weeks of the season, rattling off seven straight wins to barge into the Pac-12 title hunt. Had UCLA not squandered the regular season finale against USC, the Bruins may have stolen a share of the league crown.

The two-faced nature of Cronin’s inaugural season is why this year’s team is a tough nut to crack (notice the large discrepancy in the Weave’s individual rankings above). Did the Bruins just catch lightning in a bottle during that four-week surge? Or was it an Aha! moment, serving as a sneak preview for 2021? From my vantage point, both sides have a valid case. The impact of Chris Smith’s own Eureka moment can’t be overlooked – his ascent to an All-Conference caliber weapon directly coincided with the Bruins vaulting into Pac-12 title contention. But, Cronin’s the type of coach who relishes at making the whole greater than the sum of its parts.

Devoid of a true alpha dog, Tyger Campbell likely becomes the Bruins’ maestro by default, a pure point guard in every sense of the traditional term. The former McDonald’s All-American was one of seven players in college basketball last season to post a 2.75 assist to turnover ratio on more than 150 assists, an impressive feat for a rookie. His jump shot and athleticism leave a lot to be desired, but his feel for the game is next level, precisely why Cronin adores him as the offensive floor general.

Offseason acquisitions Johnny Juzang (sharpshooting Kentucky stow away) and Jaylen Clark (fringe top-100 freshman) join an already crowded wing corps, giving Campbell an abundance of riches to work with. Juzang and Clark’s pedigrees would entitle them to automatic starting jobs on most teams, but this is Mick Cronin’s world – he couldn’t care less about Juzang and Clark’s recruiting rankings. These newcomers would be wise to take a page out of Jamie Jacquez’s playbook last year, who captured Cronin’s attention with his commitment to defending at a high level. The reigning team leader in steals, Jacquez’s keen anticipation and deceptive quickness launched him ahead of David Singleton, Jake Kyman and Jules Bernard in the pecking order early on, which ignited an unabashed confidence on the offensive side of the ball.

Like Jaquez, Singleton proved to be a stout defender as a freshman two years ago, but lingering rust from a broken foot threw a wrench in his development last season. Bernard’s in the same boat as Singleton, a rising junior who forfeited more of his minutes to Jacquez and Kyman last season after a sterling freshman campaign – though, those who watched the game at Utah late in the year witnessed the best version of Bernard’s smooth scoring package. Bernard and Jacquez are more adept slashers, while Singleton and Kyman do most of their damage from long distance. There’s a lot of mouths to feed, but from Cronin’s vantage point, the plethora of options should be perceived as an asset. Not only will this breed fierce competition in practice, but the lineup optionality will allow him to hedge against individual cold shooting nights and inevitable injuries over the course of the season.

As a longtime advocate of scoring ugly, be it through hard-earned points at the charity stripe or off offensive rebound stick-backs, Cronin will call upon Jalen Hill and Cody Riley to rule the paint with an iron fist. Riley and Hill’s transformation both on and off the floor has been a long and tenuous journey, now almost three years removed from the infamous ‘Gucci Gate’ incident in China. Cronin has been instrumental in reforming their character and work ethic, harnessing their physical gifts into a destructive force up front. Hill’s tireless work in the weight room helped him seize the starting nod alongside Smith last year, immediately earning Cronin’s respect as a relentless rebounder.

Riley’s no slouch on the glass either, but he distinguishes himself with an old man, throwback low-post game. Decoding consistency will unleash Riley’s simmering All-Conference potential, as few challengers can corral him on the block 1-on-1. The patience, footwork and explosiveness seen in the clip below is a delicacy in today’s college game - it’s not often you see Xavier Tillman get taken to school:

The most redeeming quality of Cronin’s frontline cronies is their reliability at the foul line. Hill hit 78% of his freebies in Pac-12 play last year, while Riley’s refined stroke helped him covert 22 of his final 26 attempts from the charity stripe. With Smith out of the picture, Hill and Riley could each attempt upwards of 125 free throws this season, so their collective conversion rate will be pivotal to UCLA’s offensive efficiency.

Bottom Line: It took months for Cronin to purge the deadweight from the UCLA program, but it’s now blue skies ahead for the new ruler of Westwood. Cronin’s culture of toughness and ‘team over me’ is engraved in this roster, so clearly demonstrated by the postgame comments of his players from February onward. Player buy-in is no longer an issue – now, it’s a matter of how far last year’s momentum can propel these Bruins in 2021.

The loss of Smith and Nix inherently lowers the ceiling, but I’d argue Cronin built Pac-12 champion caliber teams at Cincinnati with lesser talent than he has at his disposal now. Postseason shortcomings aside, Cronin led the Bearcats to seven top-40 kenpom.com finishes in his last nine seasons at Cincy. A smooth operating point guard, a bevy of tenacious wings and an army of bruising bigs is a roster concoction that’s right in Cronin’s wheelhouse.