- Ky McKeon

In a new (hopefully) weekly column, I’ll be shining a spotlight on three teams on the rise and three teams on the decline. The goal here will be to emphasize more off-the-beaten-path squads, those not regularly covered in the media (or by Jim & Matt’s wonderful weekly editions). More teams, more content, Three Man Weave.

Three Up

Wisconsin

It’s been a top-notch couple of weeks for the Badgers who are riding a four-game winning streak following their tough loss at the RAC to Rutgers on December 11th. Wisconsin bounced in-state “rival” Milwaukee with ease then took advantage of a Lamonte Tuner-less Tennessee squad on the road followed by a 38-point pounding of Rider and a 4-point win over THE (mighty) Ohio State University Buckeyes. This run has propelled the Badgers all the way up to 21st in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings, a staggering 30-spot jump from December 21st. The Badgers have won games as we expect them to win games: by playing gritty defense and slowing the pace down to a screeching halt. Greg Gard’s squad is the 19th best defensive team in the land, per KenPom, and plays at the 4th slowest pace. Freshman forward Tyler Wahl has been an unsung hero off the pine, providing timely rebounding and hustle plays.

Junior Nate Reuvers is a burgeoning star in the Frank Kaminsky mold and Gard’s roster is finally 100% healthy (knock on wood).

Wisconsin plays smart basketball, controls the tempo of games, and has an experienced point guard in D’Mitrik Trice. That combination is hard to beat in college basketball. Just like the famous tale of the Badger and the Hare, slow and steady wins the race.

Little Rock

Little Rock is the hottest mid-major squad in the country currently, winning its last six contests and bolting out to an impressive 5-0 start in Sun Belt play. The Trojans were picked to finish 11th in the preseason Sun Belt media poll after losing their best player (Rayjon Tucker) to graduation from a 10-21 (5-13) disappointing 2018-19 team. Even Vegas can’t keep up, as Little Rock ranks 12th in ATS record at a sparkling 11-4, hanging around with more high-profile teams like East Tennessee State, Memphis and Missouri State. Darrell Walker’s second year at the helm has been a smashing success driven largely by an improvement on the offensive end. The Trojans still attack the basket as hard as any team in the country and still have turnover woes, but Walker pumped the breaks on the pace at which his squad plays, going from the 55th fastest team last year to the 201st this season. Conference play has been a boon to UALR’s offense, as a below average national attack has quickly become one of the most potent:

It’s unclear how long Little Rock can keep this success going – Walker plays the 3rd least amount of bench minutes in the nation so one injury could throw a wrench in the well-oiled machine. For now, the Trojans look to be the team to beat in the Sun Belt having already dispatched of three of the league favorites this month.

BYU

Since Yoeli Childs’s return to the lineup on December 4th (recall, the star player was suspended for nine games for filling out his NBA Draft paperwork incorrectly) the BYU Cougars have been a freight train.

After an overtime loss to Utah, BYU has won six straight and covered five of those contests. Mark Pope’s offense is a joy to watch, as his Cougars space the floor with a 4-out (sometimes 5-out) look, allowing his plethora of trey bombers to lay waste to helpless defenses. BYU ranks 15th in the country in percentage of points scored from behind the arc and 11th in 3P%; a staggering EIGHT players are shooting over 40% from downtown (four on high volume), which keeps opposing defenses spread out past the line, opening driving lanes and post-up looks for Mr. Childs.

Three Down

South Dakota

I don’t like what’s going on with my ‘Yotes and, quite frankly, I can’t explain it. South Dakota has been plain awful this season despite receiving a mountain of hype heading into the year. Todd Lee has the 5th oldest team in the country and brought back the 50th most minutes of any team from last season, yet his squad is a paltry 1-2 in Summit play after surviving a scare from Denver of all teams. And it’s not just the conference results that are alarming – USD beat national bottom-feeder Florida A&M by just three on a neutral floor in November, lost to Northern Arizona on the road, and UMKC at home. The ‘Yotes are dead last in the Summit in ATS record (5-10) and have covered just one contest since December 9th.

Point guard Triston Simpson missed seven games with injury, but he’s been brutal since returning, converting just 6/29 (20.6%) from the field over the last three games. From a national lense, South Dakota’s offense has been quite good – the ‘Yotes handle the ball at an elite rate and shoot the shit out of it on a nightly basis. From a conference perspective, though, USD ranks just 7th in the Summit (out of 9 teams) in adjusted offensive efficiency. There’s not one thing in particular I can point to, to support USD’s sudden futility. Perhaps it’s their complete lack of pressure (348th in TO rate) or offensive rebounding (352nd) which makes them heavily reliant on single half-court possessions, or it might simply be bad luck, as opponents are shooting lights out against them in Summit play.

Either way, Lee has some issues to iron out for his squad to overcome the likes of South Dakota State and North Dakota State and earn the auto-bid to the Dance. There’s no reason to struggle with teams like Western Illinois or Denver when you have two of the best players in the league.

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State is one of the most confusing in the country – one game they’re beating Houston on the road, the next they’re losing by 35 to Texas Tech. The Cowboys have had some extreme results this season and now have lost five of their last seven contests. In addition to the 35-point beat down they suffered, the Pokes also lost to Minnesota by 20 and Wichita State by 19. On the opposite end of the spectrum, OSU clobbered Southeastern Louisiana by 51 and Ole Miss by 41. Mike Boynton clearly has a talented roster at his disposal, led by the electric sophomore Isaac Likekele, but the Pokes have yet to prove they can be consistent enough to make an NCAA Tournament under the third-year coach.

This inconsistency trend is nothing new (so I guess it’s consistent) for Boynton’s squads – just look at some of the results from his tenure:

Unlike the two years prior, OSU has one of the best defenses in the country and its offense is the end that’s lagging behind. With the Big 12 schedule offering no cupcakes, the Cowboys will likely fail to rack up the requisite amount of wins to be in Tourney consideration come march, but you can bet they’ll throw a few haymakers.

Iona

How much is a coach worth? If you ask Iona fans, probably about 50 points. Gael head coach Tim Cluess hasn’t been on the sidelines this season due to medical reasons and his absence has shown. Iona has dropped nearly 100 spots in KenPom’s rankings since the start of the year and has managed a measly 2-7 overall record and 0-2 start in MAAC play. No team in the country has covered a smaller percentage of its contests than the Gaels this season, as just one of Iona’s nine lined games this year have fallen in its favor.

The key factor for this dreadful start appears to be Cluess (or lack thereof). Iona is the oldest team in the country, playing a rotation that consists entirely of juniors and seniors, and boasts three 3MW pre-season All-MAAC honorees. From an on-court perspective, turnovers appears to be a major driver of Iona’s awfulness, which is a near-direct result of the graduation of Rickey McGill, Iona’s former point guard and leader. Nearly every player on the roster is turning the ball over at a catastrophic rate and every single returning player has a higher TO rate than last season.

Tajuan Agee has been especially guilty this season of committing turnover crimes, sporting a 30.2% TO rate (38.1% in conference play) through the first nine games. I’m no scientist, but I think his outlet passes have something to do with it:

Exhibit A:

Exhibit B:

Exhibit C:

To make matters worse, Iona is the 296th “best” 3P shooting team in the land, bad news for a squad that attempts long-balls at the 30th highest rate. When shots aren’t falling and the ball isn’t being protected, winning becomes a very tall task.

For Iona’s sake (and Coach Cluess), I hope to see Cluess back on the sidelines this season. If he doesn’t return, this will go down as one of the most disappointing years of the Iona basketball program, end a four-game NCAA Tournament streak, and be just the school’s second non-20-win season since 2009.