- Ky McKeon

In a new (hopefully) weekly column, I’ll be shining a spotlight on three teams on the rise and three teams on the decline. The goal here will be to emphasize more off-the-beaten-path squads, those not regularly covered in the media (or by Jim & Matt’s wonderful weekly editions). More teams, more content, Three Man Weave.

Three Up

Nebraska

The Huskers enjoyed the most success of any Big Ten school this past week. After suffering two brutal home losses at the hands of UC Riverside and Southern Utah and looking utterly hopeless for the month and a half of the year, Nebraska finally looks like the not-so-terrible team we expected to see in the preseason. Nebraska waltzed into Assembly Hall for a bout with Indiana and gave the Hoosiers a scare in overtime, nearly becoming the ONLY Big Ten to win a game on the road in the early going (until Michigan State did it last night, party poopers). Fred Hoiberg’s bunch followed that effort up with a 14-point drubbing of Purdue in Lincoln, controlling the game from start to finish.

Oddly enough, Nebraska achieved these two results despite missing junior guard Jervay Green, the #8 JUCO recruit in the land this offseason and scorer of 10.3 PPG this season. Injury and suspension impacts can affect teams in a multitude of weird ways, just ask apparent national title contender Georgetown. So is Green’s absence actually a blessing in disguise? Zooming in on the numbers from the nine games in which Green has played this season tells a similar tale to what we’ve seen in Nebraska’s last two contests: the Huskers play better without Green on the floor.

Suggesting Green’s absence is the sole reason Nebraska has improved lately would be incorrect – Hoiberg’s role players have stepped up in a major way and shots are starting to fall. Junior wing Thor Thorbjarnarson in particular has answered the call, averaging 15 PPG over the last two games after averaging 5.7 PPG the first nine. And the Husker shooting numbers are a sight for sore Nebraska fan’s eyes:

Northern Iowa

As our Twitter buds @MarchArchPod pointed out, the Purple Panthers should have probably been included in this segment last week. UNI has been an absolute buzz saw this season, currently sitting at 10-1 overall and 8-1 ATS (2nd best mark in the country), and winning games with an average margin of victory of 14.6 PPG. The Panthers are by far the highest ranked Valley squad in KenPom, checking in at 74, up from a preseason rank of 113. With a win on the road at Colorado, a venue that boasts the #1 home court advantage in the country per KenPom, and a neutral victory against South Carolina, the Panthers have positioned themselves for a dark horse run at an at-large bid if MVC play goes favorably. Even the NET loves UNI, as Ben Jacobson’s crew currently sits at #28 in the initial iteration of the almighty rankings.

UNI’s recipe for success isn’t flashy – it’s the same thing Jacobson has done for years. The Panthers play rock-solid team defense, compete on the defensive glass, control the tempo, and shoot the shit out of the ball. Jacobson puts four shooters on the floor surrounding big man Austin Phyfe, a junior center who is finally healthy after missing much of last season, and lets them eat off post kick-outs and AJ Green drive-and-dishes. Green has continued his stellar individual play from last year, leading the team in scoring at 15.9 PPG. The Panthers have an unselfish, sniper-like supporting cast and a ball-handling alpha who can bail them out late in the clock:

Missouri Valley beware.

Eastern Washington

The Big Sky preseason favorites (not according to this organization, but that’s beside the point) are off to a hot start under third-year head coach Shantay Legans. The Eagles are 7-3 this season and 7-1 ATS with an impressive home win against Belmont and respectable road efforts at Boston College and Washington. This week, EWU dispatched of Omaha in convincing fashion, pounding the Mavs by 41 points in the friendly confines of Reese Court, and last week senior center Mason Peatling put up 54 points against non-DI Multnomah in a 146-89 Eagle win.

Legans has achieved his early season results with speed. His Eagles rank 5th in the country in tempo, up from 163rd last year and 258th when Legans took over the program in 2017-18. EWU runs often, and they run well, ranking 11th in the country in percentage of initial FGA in transition per Hoop-Math and in the 91st percentile in PPP (1.174) per Synergy. Junior guard Jacob Davison and freshman phenom Ellis Magnuson have driven the offense, particularly in the pick-n-roll where E Wash is scoring a ridiculous 1.013 PPP, the best mark in the nation. And thanks to Peatling, E Wash ranks 6th in the country in post-up scoring at 1.203 PPP.

Be sure to catch the Eagles’ game with Gonzaga this weekend if you can – EWU likely won’t win but their high octane, gunning style will be fun to watch against the Zag juggernaut.

Three Down

Providence

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the most disappointing team of 2019-20. Providence was picked 4th in the preseason Big East Coaches’ Poll after a lackluster showing in 2018-19. Ed Cooley, a coach who had taken his team to five straight NCAA Tournaments prior to last year returned the 44th most minutes in the country and are the 24th oldest team in the nation, per KenPom. The Friars had the 24th best recruiting class in 2018, per ESPN, headlined by two 4-stars in AJ Reeves and David Duke. Their presumed sophomore boosts plus Alpha Diallo, a preseason All-Big East member and 3MW’s 40th ranked player in the offseason, and Luwane Pipkins, a high-scoring UMass floor general, was supposed to combine to form a formidable squad with Sweet Sixteen potential.

Alas, after a narrow victory over Stony Brook on Saturday and a thorough ass-whooping against Florida, Providence now sits at 6-6 overall with zero good wins and losses to Penn, Long Beach State, and Charleston. The Friars are currently 156th in the NET, the 7th worst Power 6 ranking, and 88th in KenPom, down from 30 to start the year. Poor offense has been the primary culprit of Providence’s woes – the Friars sit just 130th in KenPom’s AdjOE rankings thanks to lackluster shooting from everywhere on the floor.

Cooley’s ramp-up in pace has not yielded the expected results. On paper, Duke and Pipkins running a dual-PG run-n-gun offense is enticing, but the actual product has left much to be desired. We at the Weave are fans of Cooley and still have some faith he’ll turn the season around, but November and December have been troubling.

Grand Canyon

Nothing has gone right this season for Dan Majerle’s Lopes down in Phoenix. The WAC title hopeful has looked anything but, limping to a 4-9 overall record (3-9 ATS) with several severely disappointing efforts. Not all of this is necessarily Majerle’s fault, as he’s been playing with a short bench all year. Only Hofstra has played less bench minutes than Grand Canyon due to transfers Mikey Dixon and Jaylen Fisher sitting out, Oscar Frayer’s ineligibility, and JJ Rhymes’ injury.

GCU has had its fair share of personnel luck, but this team is still way too talented to be playing this poorly. Alessandro Lever is a former 1st Team All-WAC selection, Carlos Johnson played for Washington and earned All-WAC honors last year, Isiah Brown started his career at Northwestern, Lorenzo Jenkins was at Colorado State, and Jovan Blackshear was our pick to win WAC Freshman of the Year. Few teams have played worse defensively than GCU this season, especially near the rim. Per Hoop-Math, the Lopes rank 275th in FGA rate near the rim and FG% near the rim. Lack of size outside of Lever, who is not a rim protector whatsoever, has made scoring in the paint a breeze for opponents. To boot, per Synergy, GCU is 321st in PPP defense against the pick-n-roll – check out this gem of a defensive possession against New Mexico:

Hopefully Frayer and Fisher join the fold for conference play, otherwise GCU is destined for another underwhelming season.

Gardner-Webb

Gardner-Webb has been an under-the-radar disappointing team this season. The Runnin’ Bulldogs were expected to defend their auto-bid to 2019’s Big Dance with the return of three starters including mid-major stud Jose Perez. But, much like Grand Canyon and Providence, the early going has been unkind to Tim Craft and Co. Losing on the road to North Carolina, Wichita State, South Carolina, and Virginia Tech is not shameful. Heck, even a road loss to Wofford, slayers of the Tar Heels, is acceptable for a Big South team, and you could convince me that the Western Carolina loss isn’t as bad as it appears. But, what there is no excuse for is a 24-point loss to Kennesaw freaking State. The Owls torched GWU despite missing three key players and playing three guys all 40 minutes. The Bulldogs had no answer for KSU’s hot outside shooting and scored a measly 0.94 PPP against one of the worst defenses in the country.

Perhaps the gauntlet of a non-conference schedule (29th best nationally, per KenPom) will pay dividends in Big South play where GWU looks to be the clear 3rd best team. Until then, they deserve to be called out for two straight 24+ point losses and a perimeter defense with as much resistance as the elastic waistband of my 20-year old sweatpants. I expect Tim Craft to use this article as bulletin board material when his team looks lay siege on DI punching bag Bob Jones tonight.