-Matt Cox

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Jawaun Daniels, R Sr., Prairie View A&M
Coach of the Year: Dylan Howard, Alabama A&M
Newcomer of the Year: A.J. Lawson, R Sr., Texas Southern
Co-Freshmen of the Year: Juan Reyna, Alabama St. / Devin Carter, Alcorn St.

Tier 1

1. Prairie View A&M

Key Returners: Jawaun Daniels, Faite Williams, Jeremiah Gambrell, D'Rell Roberts, DeWayne Cox
Key Losses: Cam Mack
Key Newcomers: Christian Guess (Samford), Markedric Bell (Pine Bluff), William Douglas (SMU), Miles McDougal (D-II), Elijah Ifejeh (SELA), DeAngelo Ware (JUCO), PJ Neal

Lineup:

Outlook: Up until Prairie View ran into a Texas Southern freight train in the SWAC Championship, the Panthers were pitching a perfect game. PVAMU ran the table in conference play, crossing the finish line with a flawless 13-0 league record.

After sweeping their archrivals in the regular season, a third date, for all the marbles, was destined.

Shame coveted rubber match didn’t live up to the hype…

TXSO unleashed a fury of vengeance on the Panthers, claiming its first trip to the tournament since 2018. For a *rivalry* that was looking more and more lopsided by the year, TXSO finally restored balance to the H-Town rivalry.

The 2022 SWAC championship likely runs through Houston again, as both the Tigers and Panthers are oozing with talent, depth and experience. How Johnny Jones and Byron Smith use their stockpile of ammunition varies. For Jones, it’s battle of the boards. For Smith, it’s the turnover battle.

We’ll get to the marquee newcomers in a minute, but first, an ode to DeWayne Cox, the exemplar of Smith’s defensive nastiness. Cox, often overshadowed by more prolific scorers, is arguably the peskiest ball hawk in the SWAC.

Fellow starters returning include Jawaun Daniels, Faite Williams and Jeremiah Gambrell, along with 6th man D'Rell Roberts. You’ll notice their names have slipped in the projected depth chart above, which speaks volumes about the tsunami of talent rolling in. Christian Guess (Samford), Markedric Bell (Pine Bluff), William Douglas (SMU) and Elijah Ifejeh (SELA) can all punch in the same weight class. Guess, in fact, could become a star.

I have no idea who starts and who doesn’t, but it matters not – this team can roll hockey shifts of pressure at its opposition.

Daniels came out of nowhere to set the SWAC ablaze last season. Unlike Devonte Patterson, the wing stalwart of Smith’s 2019 and 2020 squads, Daniels can burn you from downtown. If left open, he’s nearly automatic with time and space – yet even a tight closeout won’t deter him from pulling the trigger.

Roberts is Daniels’ wingman, literally. The lean 6’7 matrix type defender isn’t as skillfull as Daniels but, similar to Cox, has a motor that runs lava hot.

The guards, Williams and Gambrell, face the biggest obstacle of the incumbents: filling Cam Mack’s shoes. Mack puppeteered this offense in the palm of his hand last season. That’s a tectonic shift to a world without him, but Williams and Gambrell are up to the task. Handling pressure and creating opportunities for others are the top two items on their priority list.

Because Mack didn’t debut until conference season, parsing out his on / off impact his convoluted. Why? Not only did Mack rarely come off the floor but the only three games he missed were the opening three non-conference tilts against Little Rock, Evansville, and Louisville. Hoop-Explorer’s adjusted on / off stats can help us normalize, partially, for strength of schedule:

The middle column shows the unadjusted rates of efficiency while the right column adjusts for level of competition. Without that adjustment, Mack looks like a Michael Jordan-type of impact. The reduced chasm based on competition is a sigh of relief for PVAMU fans. A healthy Williams, while not as dynamic as Mack, should be able to pick up the pieces in his absence.

Oh, and one last thing. Remember this?

Prairie View has unfinished business to attend to - on multiple fronts. Just down the road, their Houston-based adversaries are hoisting the SWAC Championship trophy, while Jackson State, well, they have another thing coming. After those late game ‘extra curriculars’ in 2020, the two never collided last year due to the COVID corrupted schedule. Both went undefeated during the regular season, too.

Mmmmmm, delectable drama is a brewin’…

Bottom Line: Let’s recap: the team that batted 1.000 in conference play last year brings back four starters and, arguably, one of the three best transfer pools in the league. Cam Mack was a wizard distributor, but PVAMU is like the Hydra of the SWAC. Cut off one head and another will grow back in its place.

2. Texas Southern

Key Returners: Jordan Gilliam, Joirdon Karl Nicholas, John Walker, Galen Alexander, Yahuza Rasas, Justin Hopkins
Key Losses: Michael Weathers
Key Newcomers: A.J. Lawson (McNeese St.), Brison Gresham (stats w/ Houston), Grayson Carter (stats w/ UT Arlington), PJ Henry (stats w/ Hartford) 

Lineup: 

Outlook: The third time was indeed a charm for Johnny Jones. That elusive next step has finally been conquered. The Tigers marched all the way to the *second* round of the NCAA Tournament, Jones’ first appearance on the dance floor since 2015 (LSU). 

But let’s be honest here. With the talent Jones corrals on an annual basis, it was only a matter of time before he broke through.

Some coaches put shooting on the highest pedestal. In today’s world, that’s becoming the norm. Johnny Jones, cordially, disagrees. He subscribes to a different theory: 

Why make the first one when you can grab the second one, or third one, and THEN put it in?

His Tigers consistently deliver on that mission. In conference games last season, Texas Southern secured one out of every three missed shots. That’s what’s called terrorizing the offensive glass. That marked the third year in a row the Tigers set the SWAC standard for offensive rebounding proficiency.

And with this roster, there’s no reason that won’t continue: 

• Joirdon Karl Nicholas, the former SFA transfer, is the unsung hero of the forward brigade. Length, skill, and mobility all wrapped into one, JKN is pivotal on both ends of the floor.

•  Once upon a time Yahuza Rasas was an All SWAC performer. Can the wiry wing turn back the clock to 2020, when he demonized opponents on the boards? That season, Rasas finished 1st and 4th in offensive and defensive rebounding, respectively.

• H-Town is home to two offensive rebounding clinics, Texas Southern and Houston. Brison Gresham has studied at both. Gresham may bully this league without mercy.

• Shaqir O’Neal, yes, the offspring of the Shaq Daddy himself, is the latest decorated (read: 3-star) recruit to bring his talents to SWAC nation. Royal bloodline plus 3-star pedigree. Some might call that an enticing prospect package.

•  John Walker may flat out be this team’s best player. He was consistently productive, and efficient, against topflight competition last year. Walker did not look overmatched in TXSO’s feisty first round effort against the Wolverines.

•  Galen Alexander is as talented as any name on this list. He was arguably the Tigers’ second-best player for the first half of conference play last year.

•  Grayson Carter is an outlier from the other rim thirsty forwards. This inverted big attempted nearly twice as many threes as twos during brief pit stops at Georgetown and UT Arlington – though, he hasn’t been particularly efficient to date.

 The concerns? Shooting and ball security.

In the turnover fun house, known as ‘SWAC land’, he who protects the rock is king. This why point guard, the protector of the rock, is the most pivotal of any position on the floor. Again, Jones has many options.

AJ Lawson is a fascinating creature – he’s who I’m pulling for to break away from the pack. 6’5 *point guards* don’t go on trees. Inserting that frame into an already gargantuan lineup would be the defensive cherry on top. Jordan Gilliam played some backup point last year, so he’ll be in the mix for big minutes, while PJ Henry and Bryson Etienne, two homecoming kids, could provide a serious spark off the bench, too. 

Shooting, though not required, is still a ‘nice to have’. Ironically, Johnny Jones’ son is an oasis in the middle of the Sahara. That’s not entirely fair to Alexander, who made 39% in league play last season, but Jones is the only one with an extended track record, on top of his embedded ‘shooter’ reputation.

Bottom Line: After finally out-dueling its crosstown rival (Prairie View A&M) for the coveted SWAC auto bid, Johnny Jones put a punctuation mark on a breakthrough 2021 campaign: an opening round victory over Mount St. Mary’s. Michael Weathers and his heroics will be missed, yes, but this team’s identity lies in the front court, as it has every season under Jones’ watch. If one of the point guard potentials pops, I’ll feel foolish picking this power conference team masquerading as SWAC team to finish 2nd place.

Tier 2

3. Southern

Key Returners: Jayden Saddler, Terrell Williams, Ahsante Shivers, Brendon Brooks
Key Losses: Micah Bradford, Harrison Henderson, Samkelo Cele, Lamarcus Lee
Key Newcomers: Tyrone Lyons (NC A&T), Damien Sears (Nicholls), Brion Whitley (Murray St.), P.J. Byrd (Colorado St.), Dre'Shawn Allen (D-II), Jason Holliday (Murray St.) 

Lineup:

Outlook: In the SWAC echo chambers, there was deafening hype around the Jaguars last summer.

Go back in time, snatch that hype, bottle it up, and bring it back to 2022 for re-release!

Last year, the cumulative toll of injuries and COVID-relative hiccups gutted Southern’s chances at fulfilling their destiny. Sean Woods forged ahead, admirably, but, it was too much to overcome. This soundbite from Woods on the night leading up to the SWAC Tournament encapsulates the hardship Sean Woods and his squad endured last season: 

“COVID has really taken a toll on our team just because of the stop and go, the soft tissue injuries, and things like that,” Woods told the Advocate on the eve of the SWAC Tournament last season. “After what we started off with, I haven’t had my whole team all year. We’re still playing, and that’s a testament to the guys that had to step up in a new role. They’re still fighting and giving us a chance.”

He wasn’t BS-in, folks.

Look at this menagerie of lineups Woods was forced to use throughout the season. It’s impossible to develop any sort of rhythm with this level of lineup disjointedness.

The alliterative law firm known as ‘Shivers & Saddler’, more commonly known as Ahsante Shivers and Jayden Saddler, were ground zero for the injury catastrophe. Shivers tore his ACL while Saddler labored through a concussion. Consider that Micah Bradford, one of two preseason All-Conference selections, also had his season ruined by injury. That left Woods with his three most important players operating at ‘safe mode’ for most of the year. 

Even then, Woods probably thought he had his bases covered, as the Jags boasted one of the deepest rosters in the SWAC. It wasn’t enough to hold the line, but the reserves gained invaluable experience, which should fast track them for role promotions in 2022. Hyper-efficient Terrell Williams and jitterbug Brandon Brooks were both beaming bright spots. Williams is the one with star written all over him – few freshmen are *that* efficient as rookies, particularly in the SWAC.

Saddler and Shivers are gamechangers if healthy. Saddler, presumably, will return to form faster than Shivers but it’s likely both are back in the saddle by the time conference play arrives. Along with Williams, Woods’ top-3 can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the league.

Woods wasn’t bashful in using the transfer portal, either, doubling down on last year’s depth-over-everything roster management approach.

Two arrive from Murray State (Brion Whitley and Jason Holliday), one from Colorado State (PJ Byrd), and another from Nicholls (Damien Sears), the latter of whom began at St. John’s. That’s three high to mid major caliber talents. MEAC fans are familiar with Tyrone Lyons’ work. The southpaw swingman was a stat sheet stuffer at NC A&T last season.

Legitimately all 14 guys will see action, and deservedly so, given the diversity of prototypes at Woods’ disposal. Woods uses his bench as liberally as any coach in America, a trait he wears like a badge. Kirk Parker, a roundhouse center, is a perfect example. He’s a niche player that Woods can used selectively in targeted matchups, as few SWAC teams have a player like him.

Here’s my main concern, however. The Jags are teeny tiny up front – at least in terms of length. There’s a multitude of rangy wings and hybrid forwards Woods can stretch to play the 5 but there’s no version of Amel Kuljuhovic and Darius Williams, the two rim protectors who anchored Woods’ stout defensive unit in 2020 (6’9 and 6’10, respectively). According to Blue Ribbon, J'Quan Ewing was a pleasant surprise this summer, a highly lauded prospect that may be Woods’ only traditional big. If he’s ‘as advertised’, the Jags suddenly become a well-rounded ball club.

Bottom Line: The prognosis heading into 2022 is a copy / paste narrative from last summer. Don’t let last year’s shortcomings drown out what Woods put together in 2020. That recipe hasn’t changed. Only the names and faces. Pound for pound, this batch of new arrivals stacks up with that 2020 rendition, which ran roughshod through the SWAC over the final two months of the year.

4. Grambling

Key Returners: Cam Christon, Terreon Randolph, Prince Moss, Tra'Michael Moton
Key Losses: Trevell Cunningham
Key Newcomers: Danya Kingsby (Bradley), Shawndarius Cowart (Hofstra), Terrence Lewis (South Alabama), Amari McCray (Portland St.), AJ Taylor (NC State), Eric Parrish (UTSA), Chanse Robinson (Buffalo) 

*NOTE: I have no idea what Carte’Are Gordon’s situation is. He is not on the official school roster but there’s a chance he could be enrolling second semester - pure speculation, apologies for the lack of intel on this front

Lineup:

Outlook: Donte Jackson sees the writing on the wall. He sees the stockpile of big men Texas Southern, Jackson State and Prairie View A&M are accumulating in their reserves.

Jackson debuted in grand fashion when he stepped into the cockpit in 2018, leading the Tigers to an outright regular season title his first season on the sidelines. Getting back to the top of the podium hasn’t been as easy. Jackson’s been on the doorstep, finishing 10-8, 11-7 and 9-6 over the last three seasons. But he knows the ‘close but no cigar’ pat on the back isn’t going to stop those SWAC powers from hoarding heavy artillery.

Jackson can’t wait to unveil his enhanced frontline militia, which, at least on paper, looks worthy of going toe-to-toe with the SWAC frontrunners.

I was eager to share the travels and adventures of Carte’Are Gordon, a former top-100 recruit who committed to Grambling over the summer, but sure enough, he is MIA from the official school roster. This would’ve been Gordon’s fourth collegiate stop (I think? I’ve lost count), so the rest of his story remains unwritten.

To be frank, I’m not even sure Jackson will notice Gordon’s absence. Amari McCray, a bruising back-to-the-basket bully, will gladly take Gordon’s leftovers. The wide-bodied and well-skilled McCray was a double-double threat every time he stepped on the floor at both Pacific and Portland State. He can kill you with second and third chance put backs or with a crafty throwback post game. 

In the SWAC, winning the rat race for rebounds requires size and strength, particularly against the top end teams (Texas Southern, Jackson State, etc.), which is where McCray’s broad shoulders will come in handy.

However, this is where Jackson may find himself in a pickle. Two years ago, Jackson felt he was over indexed on conventional size, veering too far from his bread and butter: extended full-court pressure. Last year, Jackson got back to his defensive roots. Size, in the traditional sense, is important regardless of scheme but it can’t come at the expense of quick footspeed and savvy anticipation, the key ingredients in Jackson’s pressing and amorphous zone looks.

The question is, how does Jackson deploy McCray and incumbent big Terreon Randolph in concert? Both are deceptively mobile for their size, but still profile as conventional ‘centers’. A 2020 Jackson would’ve played them in tandem. Now, it seems unlikely that he’d play his two behemoth bigs together. Jackson’s solution might be to interchange McCray and Randolph at the 5, swapping them in and out in a sort of WWE tag team manner. Specifically, Jackson can play ‘offense / defense’ with this duo, McCray spearheading an offensive-minded lineup while Randolph will anchor a defensive-minded attack. They’re each net assets on both sides of the ball, but their most redeeming qualities lie on separate ends of the floor. 

This is why Cam Christon is Grambling’s skeleton key. The former Boise State defector is lab-created for that 4th guard / 2nd forward spot, long enough to battle on the boards but agile enough to fly around the perimeter and create chaos in the backcourt. Oh, and he’s a killer on the offensive end. The 6’6 Christon is one of the best shooters in the SWAC and that’s merely a fraction of his holistic offensive repertoire. He’s both a slasher and multi-level shot maker, too.

Historically, Jackson’s been a JUCO magnet from a recruiting perspective – last year, he brought in two top-100 JUCO prospects, Cameron Woodall and Reyhan Cobb. That twofer didn’t live up to their lauded billing, so this season, Jackson swung for the fences in the D-I transfer field. He may have hit a few dingers with

Danya Kingsby (Bradley), Shawndarius Cowart (Hofstra), Eric Parrish (UTSA) and AJ Taylor (NC State), who all wield major talent. Cowart and Taylor, however, could just as easily be strikeouts, to continue forcing that baseball analogy. Cowart flamed out at Hofstra while Taylor hasn’t played anywhere close to a full season in over two years. Kingsby is the safety blanket of this trio – he’s the safest bet to be a nightly contributor all year long. 

Jackson is delighted to welcome back three key ‘program guys’ in Prince Moss, Tra'Michael Moton and Zahad Munford. Moss falls into that do-everything wing mold, along with Christon, and, potentially, Parrish and Taylor. Moss blossomed into a productive playmaker and scorer last year and made 18-for-36 from long distance against SWAC competition, the best clip in the league.

Bottom Line: Jackson faces similar roster integration challenges as the other top SWAC squads, but this is a good problem to have. If there’s one nitpick, it’s at point guard, where Trevell Cunningham and Ivy Smith spoiled Jackson the last four years. Kingsby projects as a steady, safe replacement here, though, and the rest of the wings and forwards are quite strong. Grambling is a virtual lock to finish in the upper half, as they have every season under Jackson’s watch.

5. Jackson State

Key Returners: Jayveous McKinnis, Jonas James, Isaiah Williams, Ken Evans, Darius Hicks
Key Losses: Tristan Jarrett
Key Newcomers: Gabe Watson (Tulane), Chris Freeman (UT Rio Grande Valley), Terence Lewis (North Texas), Dyllan Taylor (D-II), Chance Moore (JUCO), Jamarcus Jones (Southern)

Lineup:

Outlook: Perfection, Part II. 

Is it possible we ever see two teams go undefeated in the same conference again? 2020-21 was weird, guys.

Last year, Texas Southern played spoiler to both Prairie View A&M and Jackson State’s quest for ‘pure perfection’ – translated: SWAC regular season AND postseason. TXSO railroaded PVAMU in the title game but needed a series of fortunate events to go their way to escape past the pesky Tigers (the ones from Mississippi).

We here at 3MW hold Wayne Brent in the highest regard, a ripple effect of our Alan Boston apprenticeship. However, one of the SWAC’s most suave head honcho came under fire for his late game management in the SWAC Tournament loss to Texas Southern. That crowd has a point, but, I’m not going to put stock in one possession of basketball when it comes to evaluating coaching prowess. Just look at how far this program has come under Brent.

The unavoidable storyline this summer is the loss of Tristan Jarrett, the reigning SWAC Player of the Year. No team in the league had more offensive production concentrated in one player than Jackson State had in Jarrett, a prolific point guard and scorer rolled into one. He leaves many servings of scoring, playmaking and defending on the table, and no returner or newcomer has the appetite to replace him.

However, this Jarrett discussion quickly morphs into a polarizing two-sided debate when the advanced statistics get involved. Think of the chart below as the ‘Revenge of the Nerds’:

As a quality check, I ran the same analysis at hoop-explorer.com and it told the same story: Jarrett’s eye-popping production may not have impacted the bottom line of winning as strongly as we thought. Many might recall this bizarre incident, in which Jarrett walked off the court after an argument with fellow superstar Jayveous McKinnis.

Jarrett later apologized for his actions, which was sincere by all accounts, so let’s not turn this into a Jarrett bash-a-thon. He was an immensely talented player, but there’s data-based evidence to suggest that the Tigers are far from doomed without him.

McKinnis is front and center as to why. Ever since his rookie debut in 2019, the entire SWAC has been on high alert. Defensively, he was born to protect the paint, as he’s done better than anyone for three years running. His offensive development continues to catch up, a frightening combination for SWAC opponents. Barring some unforeseen event – like a Tonya Harding / Nancy Kerrigan hit job – McKinnis is a lock to win his third straight Defensive Player of the Year award.

Isaiah Williams and Darius Hicks split a timeshare next to McKinnis last year, so their experience will come in handy. However, they were wildly inefficient, tossing the second starting forward spot back and forth like hot potato all year long. 

That may pave the way for a formidable crop of wings to seize an opening next to McKinnis in the frontcourt. Terence Lewis, a former JUCO All-America, hails from a gritty, hard-nosed culture at North Texas, where he was schooled under one of the best defensive gurus in the game, Grant McCasland. It’s easy to see Brent falling in love with Lewis, a key contributor on the Mean Green’s NCAA Tournament run last year. Chris Freeman, a productive wing at UT Rio Grande Valley, will also be in the mix, as will Jamarcus Jones, who has all the SWAC playbook secrets from his time at Southern.

That leaves the Jarrett successorship as the only unsolved roster mystery. Again, it won’t be a 1-for-1 single player replacement – rather, a collaborative partnership filling Jarrett’s stead. Jonas James, Jarrett’s first officer last year, and Gabe Watson, a battled tested transfer combo guard, will take the keys to the offense. How important was Jones last year? Only Jarrett clocked more minutes than ‘JJ’, proof of his indispensable value as the quasi-offensive conductor. Watson’s toggled back and forth between point guard and shooting guard throughout his career but we may see him drift into a score-first mentality next to James.

Bottom Line: The SWAC’s cream of the crop is as loaded as ever, but Jackson State figures to be right in the mix, again, riding high off last year’s unscathed regular season. The loss of Jarrett is the obvious narrative hanging over the Tigers this summer but there’s well positioned to overcome, and possibly flourish, with this re-tooled roster.

6. Florida A&M

Key Returners: MJ Randolph, Jalen Speer, Bryce Moragne, Kamron Reaves, DJ Jones
Key Losses: Evins Desir
Key Newcomers: Chase Barrs (Western Michigan), Dimingus Stevens (Seton Hall)

Lineup:

Outlook: Robert McCullum is college basketball’s program janitor. Wherever he goes, he leaves that program in a better place than when he found it. Western Michigan, South Florida, and now, Florida A&M.

McCullum’s work at FAMU is far from over, though. His three predecessors spanned a total of 12-seasons, and none of whom can hold a candle to what McCullum’s accomplished, leading the Rattles to a 26-18 conference record over the last three seasons.

McCullum now enters a new competitive arena, transitioning summer from the MEAC to the SWAC. He’s already lifted FAMU out of the Division-I shit-pipe. Can he lift FAMU to a SWAC championship?

Making sense of FAMU’s performance last year in the MEAC’s skeleton schedule is tricky. From January 10th through the MEAC Tournament, the Rattlers only played three different teams: North Carolina A&T, NC Central and South Carolina State. I’ll still tout the fact that the Rattlers’ boasted the MEAC’s top defensive unit on a per possession basis, but that shell of a schedule is noteworthy. 

That raw defensive success was also skewed by the almighty variance monster – those three opponents shot a dismal 61% from the free throw line and 27% from 3-point range against the Rattlers. Extending those percentages to the entire season doesn’t look much better, 66% and 29%, respectively, both of which ranked in the top-20 nationally. To put that in perspective, Hartford was the only other Division-I team to boast top-20 rates in opponent 3PT% and FT%. 

Granted, this is not all luck related. McCullum’s been a defensive Sensei his entire coaching career, and he has a knack for defending the 3-point line. That said, if FAUM can hold opponents to similar 3PT and FT percentages this year, I’ll wonder if McCullum dabbles in witchcraft.

Most of that pessimism is tied specifically to FAMU’s conference season, which ignores their stellar performance in the non-con. Like any cash strapped MEAC or SWAC program, the Rattlers latched on to any ‘buy game’ it could last season, taking trips to Georgia, Oregon, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech and South Carolina. Against that murderer’s row of power conference competition, FAMU look overmatched in only one of those games. Coincidentally, or not, it was against the Sooners, when freshman star Jalen Speer did not play.

Speer is back, a stupendous sidekick, but he’s not ‘spear’-heading the FAMU offense. That would be MJ Randolph, an imaginative playmaker at the point of attack. Along with Kamron Reaves, the Rattlers’ perimeter triumvirate will be comprised of two three-year starters (Randolph and Reaves), and a surging sophomore breakout candidate (Speer). Coming off the pine are potentially three deadeye snipers in Jai Clark, Keith Littles, and Dimingus Stevens. Littles never showcased his true shooting precision, but, like Clark, was a 40% plus long-range shooter back in JUCO prior to arriving at FAMU. Overall, this group needs to lay off the tempting mid-range jumpers and focus on getting their looks from behind the stripe. FAMU has fallen in love with mid-range pull ups the last two seasons, which has marred their offensive efficiency at large.

Evins Desir is the only notable loss up front, and we will miss him dearly, but last year’s two-pronged fortress is back to police the middle, Bryce Moragne and D.J. Jones. Moragne is a bowling bowl at the 4, while Jones is a stick figure at the 5. That’s a nice complimentary pair but McCullum will have make way for the uber-explosive Chase Barrs. He’s blessed with a 7-2 wingspan and can jump out of the gym. 

The key for FAMU this season will be finishing games. The Rattlers struggled to put away opponents in their weight class last year, often building big leads and squandering them down the stretch. Last year, they fumbled away a convincing 40-16 lead against NC A&T and nearly coughed up a 13-point lead with two and a half minutes remaining against South Carolina State.

Bottom Line: FAMU is set to make waves in their inaugural SWAC, equipped with depth, experience and a prolific point guard in Randolph. McCullum’s defensive acumen and recent track record implies this should be one of the better defensive teams in the league, a safety net for any potential shooting regression or offensive scuffles.

Tier 3

7. Alabama A&M

Key Returners: Everyone
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Alec Hickman (Fresno St.)**

**as of October 26th, Fresno State transfer Alec Hickman is not on the official school roster

Lineup:

Outlook: My relationship with Alabama A&M is best characterized by Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore’s dynamic in the lovable flick ‘50 First Dates’. Every year I wake up and fall in love all over again with the baby Bulldogs. I swear, this is the last year I allow myself to be mesmerized by Dylan Howard’s bubbling fountain of youth. 

It all started with the illustrious recruiting class of 2020, which featured Cameron Tucker, Garrett Hicks, Jalen Johnson and EJ Williams. It marked a paradigm shift in Howard’s approach to roster management. Fed up with rampant roster turnover, Howard wanted to go young and build from within. There were early growing pains that year, but this was simply the cost of doing business. Patience, Howard told himself… 

Then came last year. On top of the COVID shit storm, this burgeoning talent with oodles of potential looked like it was about to sprout early on. Then, Tucker, AAMU’s point guard, suffered a leg injury midway through the season, marking the start of a downward spiral throughout the latter half of conference play. At the time Tucker went down, Alabama A&M was sitting pretty at 6-2 overall (4-2 in the SWAC), with victories over in-state rivals South Alabama and Samford already in the bag.

From that point forward, the Bulldogs never won again.

Down a dime-dropping floor general, Howard promptly promoted a rookie, Jevon Tatum, to take Tucker’s place in the starting lineup. The young freshman courageously stepped to plate but couldn’t carry the burden sans Tucker. Granted, there was other firepower around Tatum (we’ll get to them in a second), but the extreme inexperience of this roster made this group extremely vulnerable to any disturbance in the force. COVID, plus Tucker going down, was enough to throw the Bulldogs off course.

Now, here we go again, singing an eerily similar tune as last season. Tucker is back, presumably healthy, as is Tatum. They’ll be flanked by two of the best individual talents in the league, Garrett Hicks and Jalen Johnson, who will man the wing. Despite AAMU’s late season meltdown, SWAC coaches took notice of Hicks and Johnson, who each earned preseason All-Conference recognition in October.

Myles Parker, one of the few with power conference experience on the roster, represents the only ‘elder’ member of the primary rotation. Dailin Smith, EJ Williams, Anjay Cortez and London Riley, all underclassmen last season, round out the top of the depth chart.

It’s important to reiterate how young this team was last year. Per KenPom’s ‘Experience’ metric, not a single team in the basketball leaned more on underclassmen than the Bulldogs – literally, the least ‘experienced’ team in the country. This feels like a classic example of ‘a year too soon’ in projecting major movers. I fell prey to this fallacy last season, falsely assuming the sophomores would turn into stars overnight.

Remember, harvesting young talent typically takes longer for mid and low major programs, which rarely stumble upon 4 and 5-star caliber players. This is precisely why teams like Prairie View A&M and Texas Southern deprioritize recruiting high schoolers and, rather, target experienced JUCO or D-I potentials. Howard has patiently waited for this cycle to bear fruit, and now, there should be no more unexpected delays.

Playing a multitude of rookies has crippled the Bulldogs’ defense the last two seasons. I doubled down, and then some, with Abba Lawal last year, crowning him preseason SWAC Freshman of the Year (I’ve made dumber calls, trust me). He did not fulfill that prophecy but is still in the fetal stages of his development.

Bottom Line: Howard’s commitment to a ground up rebuild, through recruiting grassroots talent and nurturing it overtime, is admirable. Unfortunately, a few bad breaks and a delayed harvest of the young guns (who are now upperclassmen) impeded any significant progress. The SWAC coaches are on high alert over this dangerous Bama A&M bunch – they didn’t vote Hicks and Johnson to 1st Team All SWAC by accident.

8. Alcorn St.

Key Returners: Oddyst Walker, Byron Joshua, Justin Thomas
Key Losses: Troymain Crosby, Kurk Lee, Anthony Fairley, David Pierce
Key Newcomers: Devin Carter, Keondre Montgomery (Mississippi St.), Lenell Henry (Prairie View A&M), Marco Morency (UL Monroe), Dontrell McQuarters (Rider), Darrious Agnew (SEMO), LaDarius Marshall (New Orleans), Sama'Zha Hart (SFA), Dominic Brewton (JUCO), Paul King (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: The SWAC coaches put mad respect on Landon Bussie, the former Prairie View assistant, when they anointed his Braves a top-5 team in last summer’s poll. Bussie prudently navigated the choppy COVID waters last season, finishing one spot shy of that preseason projection – not too shabby for the first-year head honcho.

That said, Bussie was fortunate to inherit a bottom-loaded schedule, which inflated the Braves final conference record. Alcorn notched two wins a piece over Mississippi Valley State and Alabama State, along with two more victories over Alabama A&M and Arkansas Pine Bluff. Outside of those six victories, the Braves were obliterated, save one close game against Texas Southern, by the SWAC’s top dogs.

The Braves’ margin for error shrunk the moment it became clear Jacoby Ross, a highly decorated All-Conference caliber point guard, would be ruined for the season by injury. Without Ross, the Braves were largely without an identity for much of the year. Bussie brought in a few alluring guards from the transfer portal and, it appears, took his hands off the wheel completely.

Per Synergy’s play type breakdown, Alcorn’s isolation frequency and volume of mid-range attempts both ranked among the highest in America last year. In my analytically biased brain, those are signs of a poorly coached, undisciplined team, the exact opposite of what Prairie View, Bussie’s former employer, stands for.  For comparison, PVAMU’s offense contains structured, with purposeful cutting and screening actions embedded in the natural half-court movement. Given Bussie’s lineage, I expected to see more of this come to life in year one.

In his defense, the Braves still charted the 4th most efficient offense in the SWAC last year, largely attributable to sound ball security – Alcorn was the only team in the league to post a turnover rate below 19% in conference.

Ironically, Byron Joshua, one of the Braves’ primary ball handlers, was a radical outlier in this regard. Over his final three games, Joshua turned it over 18 times, and posted the highest turnover rate on the team (though, TO rate can be misleading). The spike in his minutes was directly tied to Kurk Lee’s recurring injuries, which exposed Bussie’s lack of depth at the point guard position behind Ross and Lee, two established playmakers and sound decision makers.

Despite Joshua’s late turnover frenzy, he still erupted into Alcorn’s best player, arguably, over the final two weeks of the season. Against three of the SWAC’s stingiest defenses, Joshua, who hadn’t played more than 10 minutes in any of his prior five games, turned into a human fireball:

He profiles as the lead ball handler this year, which could go one of two ways: if he fails to value the basketball, Alcorn’s foundational strength on offense last year may go by the wayside. 

Bussie must also replace do-everything star Troymain Crosby, along with David Pierce, a sneaky talented JUCO prospect who shot 39% from behind the stripe last year. Justin Thomas and Oddyst Walker return to bring stability to the backcourt, but additional help is on the way. Marco Morency, who got off to a slow start at UL Monroe last year, is on a steep upward trajectory. A pair of Florence natives (Alabama, not Italy) are longer-term investments but their talent is too sublime to keep on ice this year. Devin Carter and Keondre Montgomery are their names and scoring baskets is their expertise. 

Alcorn’s disjointed defense was the real head scratcher last year, especially given Bussie’s tutelage at Prairie View. Specifically, the Braves’ transition defense was atrocious, allowing opponents to waltz to the rim at will. Here’s a damming two-part stat bundle: Alcorn surrendered the 5th most field goal attempts in transition, AND the 6th highest field goal percentage on those same attempts. For reference, Chicago State was the only other team in the country to rank in the bottom-25 in both categories – that’s not good company.

The half-court unit wasn’t a ton better, either. Alcorn allowed the highest 2PT FG% against SWAC foes last year. Bussie, true to his PVAMU roots, utilized a myriad of wings at the 4 and 5 position. While successful at Prairie View, it may have stretched a few players too far outside their comfort zone.

Kobe Wilson was a late scratch from the official roster, which leaves the door ajar for Dontrell McQuarter, Darrious Agnew and Lenell Henry to seize a starting spot in the new look frontline. McQuarter, Agnew and Henry are all fleet of foot, non-traditional centers, and could fall prey to the same rim protection woes that emerged last year. However, they are exceptionally agile and should wreak havoc on the glass. Henry was a full-time starter on a Prairie View team that just went undefeated. That’s notable, folks. 

LaDarius Marshall and Sama'Zha Hart will also be in the mix, the latter of whom followed former teammate Walker from Stephen F Austin.

Bottom Line: Bussie’s PVAMU lineage is worth its weight in gold. Any coach who gets a seat at the Byron Smith table is bound to come away a smarter, more cerebral coach. Bussie should not be written off based on last year’s flaws – expect to see a more disciplined, structured unit in 2022, especially if he can sort out the perimeter rotation early on.

Tier 4

9. Alabama State

Key Returners: D.J. Heath, Kevion Stewart, Kenny Strawbridge, D.J. Jackson, Jordan O'Neal, E.J. Clark
Key Losses: Brandon Battle
Key Newcomers: Isaiah Range (D-II Tarleton St.), Gerald Liddell (Texas), Christian McCray, (Cal St. Fullerton), Trace Young (JUCO), Juan Reyna

Lineup:

Outlook: A normal offseason. A standard practice schedule. A non-conference tune-up.

Mo Williams enjoyed none of that in his first year at Alabama State. The Hornets dove headfirst right into high leverage conference games, with little to no refinement period whatsoever. Because of that, it’s impossible to make a fair and honest assessment of Williams’ year 1 report card.

At minimum, we can take snippets of last year and project that onto what to expect in 2022. Oddly enough, Williams’ ‘system’, as vaguely described last summer, didn’t look or feel like a modern NBA offense, as one might’ve expected given Williams’ extensive NBA background.

Per Synergy, the Hornets were one of the least pick-n-roll reliant teams in America and largely shrugged off the 3-point shot (Alabama State ranked 242nd nationally in 3-point attempt rate, per KenPom). Perplexing, yes, but it may have been a function of last year’s roster imbalance. Alabama State’s two best players last season, Kenny Strawbridge and Brandon Battle, played the 4 and the 5, respectively, while the backcourt was wildly inconsistent all year long.

Williams made only marginal enhancements to the backcourt this summer. Juan Reyna and Isaiah Range could be terrific down the road but banking on a freshman and a second-year guard to carry the freight is a dicey proposition.

The case for improvement is fickle at best but the returning continuity, particularly with a year in Williams’ offense under their belt, should reap benefits. The ‘DJ, DJ and EJ show’ (D.J. Heath, D.J. Jackson and E.J. Clark), plus Kevion Stewart (nickname still pending), are back in the fold.

Heath and Stewart are the super seniors, and odds-on favorites to co-pilot the offense again in 2022, pending Range and Reyna’s integration. Stewart’s trustworthy jump shot is a breath of fresh air for this offense – he canned 39% from downtown last year, which may as well be 59% in the SWAC. Heath, on the other hand, is a tough nut to crack. He’s had big moments in big games over the last two seasons – he dropped 23 and 16 against Prairie View A&M and Texas Southern, respectively, last season –   but shaky ball security has been his bugaboo.

The Hornets may be better positioned to win, well compete, on a defense-first mindset. This is where Range, the Tarleton State import, could excel. True to his name, Range defends like a 6’7 forward in a 6’3 frame – per Blue Ribbon, he carries a 7-foot wingspan. Along with Strawbridge (6’6) and two more 6’6 swingmen, Jordan O’Neal and Christian McCray, Williams can trot out three long-limbed defenders at the 2, 3, and 4 positions simultaneously. He will undoubtedly cut these athletes loose, a presumed continuation of last season’s pressing tendencies. According to Synergy, Alabama State pressed more frequently than any team in the SWAC last year.

Texas transfer Gerald Liddell could wield the biggest defensive sword. The former Longhorn is categorically more gifted than his SWAC peers and that jaw-dropping athleticism could immediately buoy the Hornets’ defense. With few notable returners up front, this is a golden opportunity for Liddell to step in and strut his stuff right away.

Bottom Line: Mo Williams won’t be inundated with the same hurdles he faced last year, which naturally exudes optimism for a slight upward correction in year 2. Range, Liddell and Reyna are enamoring additions, too, which raises the ceiling even higher.

Still, the backcourt is still precarious, at best, and until Williams’ finds dependable guards, the Hornets are bound to be erratic.

Tier 5

10. Bethune Cookman

Key Returners: Joe French
Key Losses: Everyone else
Key Newcomers: Everyone not named Joe French

Lineup:

Outlook: Welcome back, Beth Cooks, it’s been a while!

Bethune Cookman stood in solidarity with fellow, and now former, MEAC mate Maryland Eastern Shore in protest of the 2021 season. BCU, UMES and the eight Ivy programs were the only teams to sit on the sidelines for the entire COVID campaign.

No one has any clue how good this team will be in 2022. Gazing into the SWAC crystal ball is hazy as is. Now, we must peer back two years to level set on a baseline from where the Wildcats were… and where they may go…

Let’s start with this. Our MEAC insider, Jim Root, slotted the Ryan Ridder-led Wildcats towards the bottom of the MEAC barrel heading into last season, before BCU opted to sit out it’s lame duck season:

The point is as follows: the initial roster foundation was already shaky two offseasons ago. Ridder, the wunderkind head coach, was facing an inevitable rebuild in the wake of a stellar 2020 campaign.

Then, press fast forward to the game of musical chairs, head coach edition. In late March, Ridder decided to take the head coaching job at Tennessee Martin, leaving the BCU coaching throne vacant. It was a tough blow for the Wildcats. By all accounts, Ridder is on a fast track to mid major coaching stardom.

In response, the Bethune Cookman athletic department engineered one of the biggest hiring bungles in recent memory: 

The dust has finally settled. Now, the onus is on Reggie Theus to lift Bethune Cookman out of the SWAC gutter and drown out this summer’s PR disaster. 

Theus’ coaching resume spans both college and the NBA, which includes stops at Cal State Northridge, New Mexico State, the Sacramento Kings and the Los Angeles D-Fenders (G-League). Presumably, those pro roots will play well on the recruiting trail down the road. This summer, he worked his college network to procure a hefty haul of newcomers this summer.

Unlike Pine Bluff, who will lean heavily on JUCO additions, Theus’ war chest is stuffed with Division-I transfers. Few, however, are proven commodities, so take their ‘experience’ with a grain of salt. This is a blind dart throwing experiment.

The cream of this crop looks to be Matthew Mondesir (Central Arkansas), K.J. Davis (Samford), Jakolby Long (Southern Illinois) and Dylan Robertson (Sam Houston State).

Mondesir and Davis have something in common. They were at the peak of their powers in 2019. Since then, they’ve fallen off the map. Davis, who was at East Carolina at the time, was a full-time starter and defensive stalwart that season. Mondesir was a key cog in the top-7 of UCA’s rotation for two straight years but was double screwed the last two seasons. He sat out the 2020 season awaiting eligibility clearance, only to wait for nothing once BCU cancelled the season last year.

Long, a lauded prospect once upon a time, hasn’t made a dent at any of his prior D-I destinations, including Iowa State, Southern Utah, and, most recently, Southern Illinois. Projecting him as an immediate difference maker is grasping for straws at this point but maybe, just maybe, the 4th time’s a charm. Damani McEntire also hails from Southern Utah, where he was buried behind a loaded lineup last year. He’s still seeking his D-I moment in the sun. 

Marcus Garrett (Morehead St.) and Jonathan Bolden (Kansas City) are the other two notable imports with Division-I badges to their names, while Joe French is the only remnant from the summer roster purge. French is a legitimate flamethrower from deep and could stand out as one of the best shooters in the SWAC. 

Bottom Line: The offseason circus, which presumably disrupted a standard practice and conditioning regiment, could be the lethal injection that dooms Theus in year 1. This is a bottom-3 team with a bullet.

11. Arkansas Pine Bluff

Key Returners: Dequan Morris
Key Losses: Shaun Doss, Joshuwan Johnson, Markedric Bell
Key Newcomers: Shawn Williams (Nicholls), Kylen Milton (Western Kentucky), Trey Sampson (D-II), Amadou Fall (JUCO), Brandon Brown (JUCO), Gabriel Vargas, Brahm Harris (JUCO), Jaylan Thomas (JUCO) 

Lineup:

Outlook: The George Ivory regime is over. Ivory, the program director at APB for a decade and a half, ran out of gas the last two years. The Lions’ 6-27 record during the span was *outdone* only by Mississippi Valley State.

Optimism is ringing loudly with the introduction of new head coach Solomon Bozeman, a former hot shot assistant Oral Roberts. The 33-year old Bozeman is just another example of a percolating coaching youth movement on the cusp of exploding all around college basketball.

Bozeman will try to build a mini version of Oral Roberts’ sublime offense – albeit, with lesser talent, a tall order without a Max Abmas or a Kevin Obanor. Abmas and Obanor were stars, but the beauty of Oral Roberts’ offense is rooted in the entire supporting cast. To function at a high level, ORU’s spread attack demands both individual star power and multi-faceted role players, all of whom must be adept dribblers and shooters. Any weak links and this system cracks.

For Bozeman, this presents a daunting challenge on the recruiting trail, especially at a low life SWAC program. The current roster isn’t completely barren, but it’s limited, obviously. Thus, Bozeman will have to adapt with a more balanced attack.

DeQuan Morris, the only chunk from last year’s core, lacks the shooting touch Bozeman would like but he’ll aid in other areas. Morris is a high-flying athlete and elite finisher around the rim. Morris averaged 16 points a game over his last four contests, three of which came against Texas Southern and Jackson State’s intimidating frontlines.

Outside of Morris, it’s a free-for-all amongst the newcomers for playing time. Bozeman could care less about how many returning starters he has. Given this is a guinea pig season, so to speak, every role is up for snatch grabs.

Bozeman tagged four JUCO recruits and one D-II recruit:

• Amadou Fall gives Bozeman a change of pace big man. As a traditional low post operator, Fall can be a mismatch weapon against smaller, speed-oriented frontlines

• Brandon Brown and Jaylan Thomas were productive for solid D-I JUCO programs, albeit not powerhouses. That’s noteworthy when discussing the bottom of the SWAC barrel. Oft times, the talent scarcity is directly reflected in prior JUCO experience – sub Division-I JUCO is a seismic step down from the big boy division

• Trey Sampson, a 6’7 jack-of-all-trades type weapon, may breakaway as the ‘cant’ miss’ prospect of the bunch. Bozeman was quick to tell Blue Ribbon how Sampson hails from the best league in Division-II, and, reading between the lines, Bozeman is putting all his eggs in the Sampson basket.

If this were the summer of 2018, Shawn Williams would be headliner of this preview. Despite playing out of the national spotlight at East Carolina, the well-traveled point guard started his college career with a bang. Williams, a proven scorer and facilitator, will be Bozeman’s ‘Abmas’. If Williams doesn’t pan out, touted freshman Gabriel Vargas will be fast tracked to the starting lineup. Kylen Milton rounds out the perimeter rotation, the other make or break piece with D-I experience.

Bottom Line: This is clearly a bottom of the barrel SWAC team, and Bozeman will be in no hurry to win at the expense of player and cultural development. Williams and the JUCO wildcards will determine the Lions’ 2022 destiny.

12. Mississippi Valley State

Key Returners: Caleb Hunter, Terry Collins, Lee’Andre Howard, Devin Gordon
Key Losses: Keiondre Jefferson, Kam'Ron Cunningham
Key Newcomers: Take your pick of the litter

Lineup:

Outlook: There are good teams and there are bad teams. Then, there’s 50 feet of crap. And then there’s Mississippi Valley State.

That’s a Moneyball spinoff description of the Delta Devils’ standing in the Division-I college basketball hierarchy.

Lindsey Hunter’s tallied three and two wins, respectively, his first two seasons at the helm. Last year, though, the Delta Devils sank to a new low. They proudly held claim to the worst offense AND defense in America, both by considerable margins. Arkansas Pine Bluff, last year’s last place runner-up, beat MVSU by 40 and 23 points in the two regular season meetings. There’s nowhere to go but up for Hunter as he tips off his third season in Itta Bena. 

Caleb Hunter, Terry Collins, and Devin Gordon will run the show in the backcourt, an enigmatic trio to say the least. Hunter and Collins are the epitome of volume scorers, and they initiate everything offensively. For Hunter, ball security ballooned into an alarming pain point last season, which was a strength the year prior. How Hunter went from one of the most surehanded point guards as a rookie to an erratic decision maker a year later is beyond me. He coughed up the rock 27 times over a four-game span in mid-January – though, he did improve down the stretch.

Gordon salivated in Hunter’s run and shoot system, draining 27 of his 72 long ball attempts during his rookie debut. That 38% hit rate was tops on the team, superior to Hunter and Collins, who finished in the low 30s.

Lee’Andre Howard and Keiondre Jefferson came out of left field to play pivotal roles last season up front. Howard, who wasn’t enough on the preseason roster, parachuted in from the heavens in an XXXXL sized jumpsuit to play center. The 7-1 sophomore from La La Land is a work in progress but Hunter must stay committed to developing Howard, who could bloom into a towering eraser inside.

That’s a fine big-4 to start from, but they’ll need help. And fast. 

To pick itself off the mat, MVSU will need a tectonic transformation from a slew of newcomers from all over the map. There are a few intriguing pieces with at least a dose of Division-I experience. Jalen Johnson started at UL Lafayette, Tyler Foster played sparingly for a good Youngstown team, while Robert Carpenter started his career at St. Bonaventure.

I’m more interested in Hunter’s younger additions, a subset of which come from famed high school factories.

Kadar Waller, for example, played at Mount St. Zion prep during his grassroots days, and captivated Hunter with his offensive versatility:

“His play-making ability is what stood out,” Hunter told Bakersfield.com. “His instincts. He’s a natural playmaker. And we’re trying to build here, we need as many playmakers on the floor as possible.”

Gary Grant, Elijah Davis and Jay Barnes are the other enticing rookies. Barnes is a fun little jitterbug that can scoot in the open floor. Grant and Davis were both household names at a household programs, Grant hailing from Sunrise Christian Academy while Davis comes from DeMatha.

The inroads Hunter is making with a few prestigious high school programs gives a sense of hope in this pit of despair. Jalen Brown, a top-5 player in the state of Tennessee, recently just inked his commitment to Itta Bena, but the masses will have to wait until next fall to see him on the hardwood.

Bottom Line: It should get better before it gets worse but it’s hard to see the Delta Devils leap frogging Bethune Cookman or Arkansas Pine Bluff. Next year could be the season MVSU breaks out of the SWAC basement but it’s a reach to think they’ll break that barrier this year.