-Matt Cox

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Tyrik Armstrong, Sr., Texas Southern
Coach of the Year: Wayne Brent, Jackson St.
Newcomer of the Year: Roland Griffin, R Sr., Jackson St.
Freshman of the Year: Cameron Tucker, Alabama A&M

Team Previews

Tier 1

1. Texas Southern

Key Returners: Eden Ewing, Tyrik Armstrong, John Jones
Key Losses: Derrick Bruce, Jalyn Patterson, Jeremy Combs, Trayvon Reed, Devocio Butler
Key Newcomers: Jethro Tshisumpa 

Lineup:

Outlook: Riddle me this: How does a team chock full of former high-major transfers and 3 to 4-star recruits – the same team that won AT Oregon, AT Baylor and AT Texas A&M – lose four games in the nation’s weakest conference?

Was it just complacency? Sheer boredom? It’s possible. This could explain the Tigers’ 11-game tear in February, immediately following an alarming 3-3 start in conference play. It’s as if they woke up the morning after losing to Arkansas Pine Bluff on January 27th, looked around at each other and said, “you guys ready to start playing now? Ok, let’s go then.”

It’s convenient to throw shade at Johnny Jones as the primary culprit here, who’s coaching reputation is forever tainted by failing to take a team with Ben Simmons to the NCAA tournament during his time at LSU. But, as far as last year’s lackluster conference performance goes, I’m not pointing the finger at Jones. Injuries slowly piled up throughout the course of year, as three of Jones’ most talented performers Derrick Bruce, Jayln Patterson and Trayvon Reed, all missed multiple games over the final two months of the season.

On the bright side, their absences and diminished roles paved the way for Jones to get a sneak preview of this year’s nucleus. Tyrik Armstrong, John Jones and Eden Ewing were all fixtures in last year’s rotation, so the aforementioned injuries took the training wheels off their development. Armstrong and Jones will set the table offensively this season, with Armstrong as the lead creator and Jones as the supporting sharpshooter. As a former walk-on, Armstrong got lost in the shuffle among all the prominent high-major transfer additions last summer, but he shored up the backcourt immediately when he took command of the point guard duties. He’s just too shifty for any one defender in the SWAC to corral him in space 1-v-1 – just watch him lull Prairie View to sleep with this crossover sequence in the SWAC championship last year:

In Texas Southern’s epic CIT showdown with Louisiana Monroe, the electric lefty out-dueled one of the premier mid-major guards in America in Daishon Smith, pouring in 32 points in 55 minutes of action, to go along with a flawless 8 assist / 0 turnover floor game. Yes, Armstrong is my preseason Player of the Year pick.

Ewing, the former Purdue transfer, received a 6th year of eligibility this summer and now becomes the Tigers’ target man in the middle. Jeremy Combs’ domination last year overshadowed Ewing’s impact, but he’s destined to average a double-double this season. Ewing’s not quite as explosive as Combs, but his patience and intelligence are unmatched. He’ll make a killing on the glass this season, using superior size and sound footwork to rack up points on 2nd and 3rd shot opportunities.

What’s really scary is that Ewing won’t even be the most intimidating presence on the floor. That title belongs to the monstrous Jethro Tshisumpa, a former top-100 recruit who comes from nearby Mississippi State. Tshisumpa will look like an adult in the kiddie pool against most of his SWAC peers this season, as no one holds a candle to his talent pedigree (4-star, top-100 recruit, per ESPN) and size (6’10). Jones had a similar weapon in his back pocket last season with Trayvon Reed, but Tshisumpa doesn’t carry the same fragile injury risk as his center predecessor. It’s safe to say Jones is gushing about the impact his new toy will have this season: 

"We are extremely excited to add a player like Jethro to our program," said TSU head coach Johnny Jones. "He will make an immediate impact to our team and have a dominant presence on both sides of the ball in the paint. He has an unbelievable feel defensively and will be an anchor in our defense. Texas Southern fans and alumni will love watching Jethro in a Tiger uniform."

There’s plenty of blanks to fill in around that big-3, but Jones has an assortment of options waiting in the pipeline. Chris Baldwin (UMASS) and Jordan Andrews (South Alabama) bring mid-major experience to the table, both of whom could push for a starting spot right away. Kevin Granger and Jordan Hopkins are still in the mix as well, and should be fully healthy after injuries dismantled their seasons last year.

Bottom Line: Texas Southern’s unfair collection of talent gives me no choice but to auto-pencil the Tigers into the top spot of my annual SWAC preseason projections. Even after what transpired last season, the talent level here is still on another echelon. All signs point to Johnny Jones making a return visit to the NCAA Tournament in 2020, which marks the 10-year anniversary of his last trip to the big dance (2009-10 at North Texas).

2. Grambling St.

Key Returners: Ivy Smith Jr., AJ Gaston, Devante Jackson, Prince Moss
Key Losses: Dallas Polk-Hilliard, Axel Mpoyo
Key Newcomers: Cameron Christon, Trevell Cunningham, Kelton Edwards 

Lineup:

Outlook: Once an unknown and unproven commodity, Donte Jackson is starting to get the hang of this whole Division-1 head coaching thing. Jackson filled the Grambling head coaching vacancy in 2017, the program’s 6th head coach since 1997, and in just two seasons, he’s already shattered the arbitrary ceiling his predecessors routinely bumped into. An unthinkable 11-game conference win streak back in 2018 is what got initially got my attention, but Jackson’s encore performance last season convinced me he’s the real deal. Grambling was in contention for my number 1 team this year, but the late departure of Dallas Polk-Hillard guts the Tigers of one of the league’s top wings, a bonafide scorer, reliable shooter and long, versatile defender.

Head coach Dante Jackson hails from the Milwaukee area and has developed a reliable pipeline due north from Grambling’s campus in Louisiana. This summer, he had his paws on another Milwaukee high school standout in Deontay Long, a dynamic 3-star guard and top ranked player in the entire state of Wisconsin, but after a run in with the law, Long will apparently redshirt this season to focus on academics (as of now, he’s nowhere to be found on the official school roster).

Jackson retained two thirds of his backcourt (Ivy Smith and AJ Gaston) and added a slew of reinforcements to round out the edges. Smith is the offensive engine, a crafty creator with a nose for getting to the rim. Despite a relatively slender build, Smith does not shy away from contact inside and has a knack for contorting his body in a way that seems to always draw a whistle. This will be Smith’s 4th year as a full-time starter, one more than his burly backcourt mate Gaston. Gaston’s a plus athlete with NBA off-guard size at 6’4, but his offensive skill is still somewhat unrefined. His shot has steadily improved over his career, a trend that must continue with Polk-Hilliard, the Tigers’ best shooter, defecting this summer.

Grambling leans on a wing and forward heavy lineup, which places the onus on Smith to handle the SWAC’s swarming defensive pressure with minimal support. He brilliantly toed the tempo line last season, pushing the pace when the advantage was there, while selectively slowing it down to feed Grambling’s three beasts inside, Axel Mpoyo, Devante Jackson and Zavier Peart. Few coaches in the SWAC had three legitimate 6’8 scoring avenues in the frontcourt, and Jackson wisely weaponized those big bodies as much as possible. Per Synergy’s detailed play-by-play breakdown, the Tigers played through the post at the 30th highest rate in the country last season, a clip that shouldn’t taper off too much with Jackson back in the mix. According to Blue Ribbon, Jackson played with a broken wrist for a good chunk of the season, so we’ve yet to see his best form. Jackson’s presence is felt on both sides of the ball, and he’ll be the primary paint protector this season, responsible for sustaining the league’s 2nd best defense from a year ago. Throw in 7-foot skyscraper Travon Bunch to the paint patrol and the Tigers’ interior fortress projects to be nearly impenetrable.  

Bottom Line: Unlike many other turnover-dependent, gamble-heavy SWAC defenses, Grambling is sound and disciplined. Opponents converted just 43% of their shots inside the arc against the Tigers last year, a byproduct of Jackson’s grounded defensive principles and a lengthy frontline that bothered smaller SWAC rim attackers. Some of the key ingredients to this success were displaced this offseason, but with the Jackson / Bunch nucleus up front, along with surging star Prince Moss (6’7), Boise State import Cameron Christon (6’6) and NJCAA All-American Kelton Edwards (6’5), Grambling will once again enjoy a size advantage at positions 2 through 5 this year. Smith’s perimeter ball hawking is just the cherry on top for what should be the SWAC’s stingiest defensive unit, which should help Grambling close the gap between Texas Southern at the top of the standings.

3. Jackson St.

Key Returners: Jayveous McKinnis, Dontelius Ross, Venjie Wallis, Lemmie Howard
Key Losses: Chris Howell, Jontrell Walker
Key Newcomers: Roland Griffin, Tristan Jarrett, Jevon Smith, Jonas James III, Miles Daniels

Lineup:

Outlook: Before last season, we received a not-so-anonymous tip (CC: Alan Boston) that Wayne Brent might just be the savviest X&O coach in the SWAC. Brent’s mastery with the clipboard last season made that tip look prophetic, as he miraculously led the Tigers to a 10-8 season, despite an offense drowning in deficiencies. JSU shot 28% from behind the arc, 46% from inside the arc and 64% from the free-throw line, yet somehow still scrapped together 10 league wins, good for 3rd place in the final SWAC standings.

In this context, it’s amazing how sophomore big man Jayveous McKinnis had any success inside. With no legitimate long-range shooting threats, off-ball defenders had free rein to leave their man and dig down on McKinnis on the low block. Yet, somehow the young freshman big was unfazed. While a lot of his production came via the offensive glass, he displayed advanced footwork and a soft finishing touch, rare qualities for a young big man.

As paramount as McKinnis is as the offensive centerpiece inside, he’s also the anchor of what might be the SWAC’s best defensive unit in 2020. JSU was the SWAC’s top rebounding and shot-blocking team last season, 99% of which was the work of McKinnis. While I picked Tyrik Armstrong to win player of the year, I’d argue the most valuable player to his team is McKinnis. He’ll be the defensive hub in the myriad of schemes Brent has up his sleeve.

The defense was the bedrock of last year’s success, but the offense needs to catch up if the Tigers plan on gunning for the SWAC title belt. Two tremendous talents in Chris Howell and Jontrell Walker dominated the ball last year, but their offensive output was plagued by inconsistent finishing and inefficient shot making. 5’9 dynamo Dontelius Ross and 6’6 wing Venjie Wallis will have to pick up their scoring slack, but I’m still searching for where the shooting uptick will come from. Three Rivers Community College transfer Tristan Jarrett nearly broke Latrell Spreewell’s scoring record, a lights-out scorer who could be the immediate solution to the Tigers’ shooting woes. Two other options are Darrian Wilson and Miles Daniels, a pair of JUCO imports who canned just under 40% from behind the stripe at their prior destinations.

Iona transfer Roland Griffin isn’t the answer to the shooting conundrum, but he’ll be a wrecking ball in the paint this season. Griffin’s reputation was permanently scarred last year when he hospitalized one of his assistant coaches at Iona after a verbal spat turned violent. If Griffin seizes his shot at redemption, he’s got the talent to feast inside against inferior SWAC forwards. A potential frontline combination of Griffin and McKinnis is a scary proposition for the rest of the SWAC, even for Texas Southern’s gargantuan frontcourt.

Bottom Line: A two-big lineup will be a drastic shift from the guard-centric lineup Jackson State utilized last season, but this shouldn’t deter Brent from adjusting. The benefit of a 4-guard lineup is diminished in the absence of shooting, so Brent may as well double-down on his size / athleticism and own the paint with McKinnis, Griffin, Wallis and bouncy wing Lemmie Howard. The key will be how quickly Griffin integrates with Brent’s complex offensive system, which is far more nuanced than the system he played in at Iona.

4. Prairie View

Key Returners: Devonte Patterson, Darius Williams, Gerard Andrus
Key Losses: Gary Blackston, Dennis Jones, Taishaun Johnson
Key Newcomers: Tamir Bynum, Javen Hedgeman, Dewayne Cox, Walter Covington, Caleb Coleman, Lenell Henry, Jawaun Daniels

Lineup:

**eligible 2nd semester

Outlook: Byron Smith could almost taste it. Up 47-34 over Fairleigh Dickinson in last year’s 16-seed play in game at Dayton, the Panthers were in complete control. For those that tuned in to that doozy of a game, Prairie View’s press was the story in the first half. Against a heady FDU backcourt, the Panthers made mincemeat of the Knights’ press break, which helped the reigning SWAC champions race ahead to a double-digit lead. 

Unfortunately, they had no answer for Darnell Edge’s flurry of 3s in the 2nd half, and the Panthers were sent home packing – though, after watching Fairleigh Dickinson get man-handled by Gonzaga two days later, what was really lost in the grand scheme?

That aforementioned press was the catalyst behind the Panthers’ highly disruptive defensive front last season. As detailed in our NCAA Tournament play-in game breakdown, Smith utilizes a 2-2-1 press structure that forces opposing ball handlers to make pinpoint passes through small creases, which puts a ton of strain on smaller SWAC guards to throw over the top.

Prairie View forced more turnovers than any team in the country last year, much of which was the work of Darius Williams’ thievery. The linchpin of the Panthers’ perimeter defense, Williams has mastered the art of Smith’s press scheme, but his reputation as a 1-on-1 shutdown defender is what makes him so special. Offensively, he’s overflowing with confidence, which made him a perfect off-the-bench spark plug last year, but consistency will be the key in 2020 as he likely moves into the starting lineup.

 The backcourt will undergo a makeover with Gary Blackston and Dennis Jones no longer around. Blackston was a fearless scorer and blur in the open floor, while Jones’ absence leaves the point guard position hanging in the balance. The guard depth chart becomes fuzzy after Williams, but incumbents Antione Lister, Chancellor Ellis, Dajuan Madden will likely to rise to the top, while UTSA midyear transfer Tamir Bynum will join the party halfway through the season. Newcomers Javen Hedgeman and Dewayne Cox will be waiting in the wings as point guard insurance policies.

With the backcourt in the midst of a reshuffle, Devonte Patterson will have to shoulder a heavy scoring load this season, a mobile forward who can play all over the floor offensively. Patterson loves to catch up and face near the 3-point arc, where he can drive hard downhill at slower, unsuspecting defenders. He can do damage in a variety of ways, but slashing is his bread-and-butter. Physical specimen Gerard Andrus will rejoin Patterson up-front, a hyperactive defender and relentless glass crasher.

Patterson’s quest for contact is a microcosm of the entire Prairie View roster. The Panthers made a living at the charity stripe last year, checking in with the 5th highest free-throw rate in the country. Blackston and Jones were pivotal in this domain, so their losses will force the others to make shots at a high clip this season. 

Bottom Line: Defense will still be the Panthers’ calling card, but there’s a strong chance the offense takes a back seat this year. Losing crucial components from last year’s concoction will put a large onus on an overwhelmingly large haul of JUCO additions. However, even with all the question marks, Bryon Smith has earned my respect as one of the sharpest coaching minds in the SWAC – bet against him at your own peril. 

Tier 2

5. Alabama St.

Key Returners: Jacoby Ross, Tobi Ewuosho, Kevin Holston, Leon Freeman-Daniels, AJ Farrar
Key Losses: Reginald Gee, Branden Johnson, Fausto Pichardo
Key Newcomers: DJ Heath, Brandan Battle, Decardo Day

Lineup:

Outlook: ‘Twas a promising start for the Hornets last season, who raced out to a 6-1 record to open SWAC play. A 20-point shellacking of Grambling to kick off the conference slate set the tone for the next month, but that mojo slowly dwindled down the stretch. The Hornets dropped 8 of their last 11 to fall to 9-9 and were eventually outclassed by Texas Southern in the SWAC Tournament semis.

I caught a couple of Alabama State’s games last year and found myself quite irked with the lack of offensive cohesion. The Hornets were one of the most isolation-dependent teams in America last season, often relying on Jacoby Ross and Reginald Gee’s individual shot making to put points on the board.

A great example of this offensive stagnation is shown below. A turnover leads to an Alabama State fast break, but Ross smartly hits the brakes when he sees the defense back in position. This should lead into some sort of half-court motion, high-ball screen or any type of action, but the other four Hornets stand in watch. Simultaneously, Ross tries to force the action, and the Hornets give it right back:  

Ross is the clear catalyst, an All-SWAC performer who will have a bull’s eye on his back without Gee alongside him this year. He’ll need Kevin Holston to expedite his maturation in a hurry, the Hornets’ third backcourt contributor last year who was stuck in a rut all season long. 

From what I observed, Jackson will run some flex offense to ease the playmaking burden off the guards, but these possessions look quite disjointed. The spacing is constricted and the movement is clunky, resulting in what looks like a team going through a half-speed walkthrough.

To make matters worse, the Hornets’ were subzero cold last year shooting the rock. Alabama State launched more 3s than anyone in the SWAC last year but converted just 31% of those attempts (the 2nd worst clip in the SWAC). I’m convinced Ross’ conference cold streak – he shot an ice cold 28% from deep on 120 attempts – will revert back to the mean and if you remove the 18 conference games last year from the equation, Ross is actually a career high-30s 3-point shooter. The real concern is Holston, whose bricklaying was almost as detrimental as his decision-making last season. The screenshot below from kenpom.com sheds light on Holston’s rough 2018-19 campaign - remember, we’re talking about a full-time starter and one of the key cogs in the rotation:

Even more maddening was the guards’ reluctance to attack the rim, as they routinely settled for inefficient pull-up 2s. As the chart below indicates, the Hornets were one of the 10 worst ‘midrange’ shooting teams in the country:

The return of Leon Freeman-Daniels is enormous, the Hornets’ only reliable 3-point shooter now without Reginald Gee. Daniels took over down the stretch last season, earning him a spot in the starting lineup the final 3 games of the year. 

Another beacon of hope comes through the door in two newcomers, DJ Heath and Decardo Day. Heath is especially intriguing, a former 3-star recruit and Alabama high school phenom who drew interest from some of the big boys (Alabama and Auburn, specifically). Day is more of a wildcard, a college journeyman and frequent visitor to the training room. Day started at Southern Utah before transferring to Florida Gulf Coast, but no matter where he’s been, injuries have marred his consistency. Both Heath and Day should get plenty of chances to steal Holston’s minutes in the backcourt alongside Ross. They simply need to value the basketball and make open shots a fairly high clip.

As much as I just slandered the offense, the Hornets actually posted the 5th highest offensive efficiency in the league last year. To remedy the shooting tribulations, Branden Johnson and Fausto Pichardo swarmed the glass relentlessly, tracking down as many 2nd and 3rd shot opportunities as humanly possible. With the guards sling-shotting bricks at the rim, there was no shortage of offensive rebounds to go around. Unfortunately, Johnson and Pichardo are now gone, which strips the Hornets of their only reliable scoring mechanism last year. AJ Farrar could chip in here, a stocky, undersized big who exploded on a few different occasions last season.

Bottom Line: All eyes will be on the guards this season. It all starts with Ross, who must recapture his peak form and solidify the lead creator role in an efficient manner. With Day, Heath and an emerging Daniels coming to his aid this season, the Hornets should ‘nest’ safely in the middle of the final SWAC standings. 

6. Alcorn St.

Key Returners: Maurice Howard, Troymain Crosby, Deshaw Andrews, Jael Scott, Devon Brewer
Key Losses: Reginal Johnson, Jonathan Floyd
Key Newcomers: Isaiah Attles, Dominic Brewton, Arne 'AJ' Morris, Corey Tillery 

Lineup: 

Outlook: In a league full of roster upheaval, the Braves lose only two of their top-7 performers from a year ago. However, roster continuity from a team that kenpom.com evaluated as the 4th worst team in America doesn’t warrant an optimistic projection. Losing Jonathan Floyd in the 2nd game of the season set the tone for Montez Robinson’s 3rd season, which stripped the turnover-prone Braves of arguably their best ball handler. Floyd is now gone, along with another big weapon in Reginal Johnson, one of the more fascinating case studies in all of college basketball. Johnson was debatably the SWAC’s best player in 2017, but injuries cut his encore 2018 campaign short after just 7 games. 

Johnson was a great ace in the hole. When he was on, it added a whole new dynamic to an offense that was otherwise one-dimensional. Devoid of polished scorers, Robinson refined the offense to run through the boiling veins of his 3-point assassin Maurice Howard. Now entering his 4th season, Howard is on pace to can 200 triples in his decorated SWAC career. He’s hit 37% of his trey balls over that span, an impressive clip given he endured a mini shooting slump two years ago. Howard was dialed in last season, draining 72 of his 181 attempts (40%). Look for Robinson to use a variety of quick hitters, like the clip below, to get his precise gunner open from behind the stripe:

It’s a miracle Howard’s legs didn’t give out with how hard Robinson rode him last year. He led the SWAC in minutes played and logged a full 40 minutes in 12 of the Braves’ final 19 contests.  

Howard will double as a ball handler and offensive initiator, as he co-pilots the offense with Troymain Crosby. As a freshman, Crosby had it easy playing alongside AJ Mosby, a ball dominant point guard who made everyone around him better. To replace Mosby’s production, Crosby reinvented himself into a pseudo point guard last season, an abrupt evolution that torpedoed his sophomore campaign. You don’t need to watch more than 5 minutes to see that Crosby and Howard have a different gear than the rest of the Braves perimeter options, but Crosby needs to transform his potential into night-to-night consistency.

Achieving any sort of inside-out balance offensively hinges on Devon Brewer, a human tank at 6’8 260 pounds and the epicenter of the Braves’ frontline. Offensively, Brewer is a skilled operator on the low block, possessing soft hands and a decent touch with both hands. On the other side of the ball, his lumbering frame slowed him down against more fleet of foot forwards. Even in Robinson’s 1-3-1 amorphous matchup zone, both Brewer and big Reggie Johnson were prone to being roasted off the dribble. The good news is Brewer has reportedly lost weight this summer, which should bode well for his lateral mobility on the defensive end.  

Deshaw Andrews is another burly forward up front (6’4 240 pounds), who possesses deceptively sticky hands defensively. Andrews posted the 27th highest steal rate in the nation last season but saw his minutes decline late in the year due to offensive inconsistency. Alonzo Campbell and Kobe Wilson are also back to fortify the frontcourt, two more defensive minded forwards who were both beat up with injuries last season. Wilson is far more mobile, and often flares out to the perimeter, while the towering 7-foot Campbell typically camps out in the paint. Campbell looks plodding at first glance, but his defensive instincts are quite sound – he came through the Jeff Boals / Steve Pikiell big man school at Stony Brook.  

In the few instances I watched Alcorn last season, Robinson didn’t hesitate to switch up defenses on command. Occasionally, he’ll stretch out that 1-3-1 zone in the form of a three-quarter court press. He’ll also mix in some man-to-man, which forces opposing guards to read and react to the defense on each and every possession.

Bottom Line: With the relatively high roster continuity here, I fear this projection is too bearish. My main pause is the Braves’ lack of foot speed, which hinders their ability to generate turnovers. In this conference, turnovers are often the best source of offense since there are so few high caliber shot makers and high level shooters. Howard is a glaring exception to this rule, but he’ll need a lot more help this season if Alcorn plans to crack the upper half of the SWAC standings.

7. Southern

Key Returners: Jaylen Saddler
Key Losses: Eddie Reese, Sidney Umude, Richard Lee, Aaron Ray
Key Newcomers: Micah Bradford, Amel Kuljuhovic, Ahsante Shivers**

Lineup:

 **eligible 2nd semester

Outlook: For Sean Woods, a man who’s resurrected two programs on the brink of flatlining, tolerance for failure is low. When things go south, he’s not the type to bottle up those emotions internally. Woods coaches with the same demonstrative, pit bull demeanor that stems all the way back to his collegiate playing days at Kentucky. This level of intensity and ‘win-at-all-costs’ mentality can extract untapped potential from his teams, but we’ve also seen this backfire. There’s no better example than when Woods infamously cracked on one of his players at Morehead State, a physical altercation that manifested in battery charges and his eventual resignation as head basketball coach.

Woods’ return to the SWAC is a shot at redemption. No one questions his ability to coach or lead, but some of those old demons did come back to haunt him last year. Eddie Reese, the Jaguars’ best guard and top returning scorer, couldn’t even make it half a season with Woods, who was eventually dismissed from the team just three games into the conference season. The details are vague, but a local report attributed Reese’s exodus to a behind-the-scenes feud between him and Woods. Proponents of Woods would view this as a necessary move to rid the locker room of a player not fully bought in. The opposition would quickly chalk this up as another incident of Woods’ stubbornness adversely affecting his ability to connect with his players.

In an interview with Blue Ribbon this summer, Woods addressed last year’s hiccups, admitting that last season was a monumental learning experience for his own growth:

“It was the toughest year of my coaching career because I am not used to losing, and it was a humbling experience. It taught me to be a better coach and have patience because I didn’t have talent and depth.”

 Wait a minute – is Woods finally turning over a new leaf?! Only time will tell, but the Jaguars strung together a few strong efforts late in the year, which could be a sign that improvement is on the horizon.

Any climb up the SWAC standings will be propelled by Jaylen Saddler, Woods’ surrogate coach on the floor and the Jaguars’ unquestioned floor general. It’s a lot to throw at the young Saddler, but he didn’t shy away from the challenge last season once Reese left the team. Saddler’s turnover tendencies should naturally taper off this season, a common trend for freshman-turned-sophomore point guards, but he could certainly use some scoring and playmaking help. Two of his fellow freshmen, Brendon Brooks and Isaiah Rollins, are primed for more featured roles this year, but Woods need not bank on their development. He lured two proven solutions off the transfer wire in Micah Bradford (Valparaiso) and Ahsante Shivers (Siena), along with two more experienced JUCOs in Montese Blake and LaMarcus Lee.

Projecting what the freshmen and JUCO imports will bring is messy, but I every reason to believe Bradford and Shivers will be instant impacts. Shivers was once a heralded piece of Siena’s rebuilding project, while Bradford was a key contributor for a solid Valpo team. Translating that pedigree to the SWAC typically bodes well, so Saddler should have the support he needs on the perimeter.

Woods’ teams are always built on strong guard play, but he hasn’t ignored the frontcourt. Cal State Fullteron transfer Amel Kuljuhovic will inject some much-needed skill to the rotation, a pick-n-pop threat rarely seen in the SWAC landscape. With all the attention Saddler, Bradford and Shivers will command, a guy that can do this will be critical for keeping the floor spaced:

Bottom Line: On paper, I’m not sure what I’m missing here. Most prognosticators have Southern penciled in the basement of preliminary 2020 SWAC standings, a move that seems to be overly rooted in the number of departures. Sure, Eddie Reese and Sidney Umede were All-SWAC players, but look no further than Texas Southern’s annual roster template. With the strong reputation tied to the new additions, the Jags’ have every right to outperform last year’s version, even without the help of those decorated defectors.

8. Alabama A&M

Key Returners: Gerron Scissum, Brandon Miller, Walter Jones
Key Losses: Arthur Johnson, Jalen Reeder, Andre Kennedy
Key Newcomers: Cameron Tucker, TJ Parham, Garrett Hicks, Mason Ellison, Cam Alford, Tremere Brown, Jalen Johnson, EJ Williams, John Sally Jr.

Lineup:

Outlook: Dylan Howard, take that meaningless ‘interim’ name tag off your chest and light it on fire! That head coaching chair is yours and yours alone!

Howard took over for the well-respected Donnie Marsh last season, who bolted for the sunny beaches of Fort Myers, Florida to become an assistant at Florida Gulf Coast. A 5-27 overall record is nothing to brag about, but small victories were evident last year, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The Bulldogs finished with the 5th best defense in the SWAC, anchored by a pair of versatile, athletic forwards in Gerron Scissum and Andre Kennedy up front, along with ballhawks Walter Jones and Brandon Miller on the perimeter.  

Typically, Scissum, Jones and Miller would be the focus of this preview, but Howard’s starlit recruiting class demands most of the ink here. Howard somehow fended off some sexy suitors to hang on to these prized prospects to bring in one of Alabama A&M’s strongest recruiting classes in recent memory. 

The shiniest of all the new toys is Cameron Tucker, a dynamic lead guard who has no business playing in this conference. I’m still trying to figure out how he wasn’t even rated as a 3-star by any of the major recruiting services, but those from Alabama need no introduction to Tucker’s abilities. Often times, dynamic guards are undervalued because of their miniature size, but that doesn’t apply to Tucker. At 6’2 with a sturdy frame, Tucker will be one of the bigger lead guards in the SWAC the moment he steps on the floor:

• Tucker averaged 20 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists last season at high school, leading Wenonah to a Class 5A state championship and earning Alabama Player of the Year honors

• He was the MVP of the Alabama / Mississippi High School All-Star game, which featured Trendan Watford (LSU, McDonald’s All-American / 5-star recruit), Jaylen Forbes (Alabama, ranked top-100 nationally / 4-star recruit) and Deantoni Gordon (Wichita State, ranked top-300 nationally / 3-star recruit), among others

Per Blue Ribbon’s summer preview, there’s a chance 5-newcomers start this season, which could feature any number of the following freshmen:

• Garrett Hicks, Alabama 7A All-State member (athletic director’s son)

• Mason Ellison, Alabama 5A All-State member

• Tremere Brown, #14 ranked player in Alabama

• John Sally, former 3-star recruit who redshirted at Youngstown State last season

• Cam Alford, #17 ranked player in Indiana

To infuse some experience to the mix, Marsh brought in TJ Parham from Green Bay, a 6’7 swingman who will see run at both the 3 and the 4 this year. With so many freshmen expected to play big minutes right away, this could be one of the youngest SWAC teams in recent memory. Per kenpom.com, the youngest team in the SWAC over the last decade is 2009-10 Alcorn St., which ranked 324th in the ‘Experience’ metric. The Braves went 2-29 that season and tumbled to 347th overall (which equates to a bottom-10 team in the country), despite starting two seniors and junior. As it stands now, Alabama A&M’s rotation should closely resemble that mix, with a few veteran pieces supported by an assortment of freshmen. 

Bottom Line: With all of the hoopla surrounding the newcomers, this creates a unique dynamic in the locker room. There are three returning starters here who have no intent of relinquishing their spot in the totem pole, so Howard will have to toe the line between not upsetting his upperclassmen and apportioning enough minutes to his young guns to fast track their development. Ultimately, I’m a believer in Tucker being a gamechanger and Howard finding the right blend of youth and experience in his depth chart – though, arriving at that mixture could take some time.

9. Arkansas Pine Bluff

Key Returners: Shaun Doss, Terrance Banyard, Isaac Bassey, Marquell Carter
Key Losses: Martaveous McKnight
Key Newcomers: Isaiah Haralson, Dequan Morris, Jamil Wilson

Lineup:

Outlook: In the ‘Key Losses’ section above, ‘Martaveous McKnight’ should be red, bolded, italicized and in size 72-font. No player in the SWAC has meant more to his respective team than McKnight the last two seasons, as evidenced by this chart below. In the rare occasions when McKnight came off the floor, the Lions’ offense was downright awful (0.79 points per possession):

With such a gifted scorer like McKnight, head coach George Ivory called his number early and often. McKnight’s one the best shot-makers the SWAC has seen in years, a damning sign for Pine Bluff’s prognosis heading into 2020. McKnight’s running mate Shaun Doss will now be promoted from first officer to captain, a savvy slasher at 6’5 who makes a living in the paint. He’s explosive off the bounce and possesses a solid pull-up middle game, which is where he does most of his scoring damage. Doss is now the Lions’ king, so to speak, tasked with the offensive initiation duties owned by McKnight last season. The lightbulb flicked on for Doss in early February, sparked by a 25-point performance at Alabama State in which he went a perfect 8/8 from the floor and 7/7 from the charity stripe.

The Lions can keep riding Doss’ hot hand in 2020 but establishing a reliable post-up game will further smooth the offensive transition into a post McKnight era. Last year, whenever Doss was having an off night, or whenever the “go make something happen Martevous” play didn’t work, the Lions detoured to bully ball inside. As the chart below indicates, Ivory adamantly looked to dump the ball on the block to Terrance Banyard, Atravious McDyess and Isaac Bassey.

In Blue Ribbon, Ivory explicitly announced his intent to continue playing through his bigs this season:

“We are going to get the ball to Banyard and Bassey on the block a lot.”

Bassey and McDyess are imposing post presences, but their production was wildly inconsistent – foul trouble and injuries were to blame – so Banyard will likely eat up most of the minutes at the 5, while athletic 6’6 wing Marquell Carter has ownership rights to the starting 4 spot. Ivory will rarely play two traditional bigs, so I’d expect Banyard, McDyess and Bassey to split minutes at the 5, rather than play together.

Ivory’s offensive playbook is thin, but his defensive blueprint is far more advanced. Historically, he’s featured a funky 2-3 zone that overextends to each sideline. The intent is to bait riskier passes into the middle by shading toward point-to-wing passing lanes. While this can produce turnovers in bunches, it does come with a cost. The overextension creates easy lanes for dribble penetration, often letting opposing slashers waltz into the lane undeterred. 

Ivory slowly went away from this fragile zone last year, but the Lions remain one of the most zone-dependent teams in America. As the ‘13’ figure in the far-left column implies, only 12 teams in America played zone more frequently than APB.

Bottom Line: In the two years prior to McKnight’s arrival, Pine Bluff went 12-24 in SWAC play and finished near the bottom of kenpom.com’s overall rankings (344th in 2016; 348th in 2017). While Doss certainly came into his own last year, McKnight’s playmaking created an abundance of scoring opportunities, not just for Doss, but also for the big boys up front. With such a razor thin separation between teams 5-10, the Lions could creep closer to the upper half of the standings, but a bottom-3 finish feels like the more likely outcome.

10. Mississippi Valley St.

Key Returners: Torico Simmons, Michael Green
Key Losses: Jordan Evans, Dante Scott
Key Newcomers: Caleb Hunter, Quinton Alston, Brandon Kimble, Jordan Lyons, Rich Rivers

Lineup:

Outlook: Lindsey Hunter’s not naïve. A Jackson State legend back in the early 90s, Hunter is well-versed with the challenges of coaching and program building in the SWAC. But this is Mississippi Valley State, an athletic program strapped for financial resources with a campus tucked away deep in the heart of the Mississippi Delta. As confirmed by Jeff Goodman’s offseason report for the Stadium, the Delta Devils’ uphill battle against economic and geographic constraints qualify it as one of the hardest jobs in America.

Notice the two criteria above where MVSU wasn’t toward the bottom of the SWAC totem pole: “tradition” and “atmosphere”. Hunter faces an uphill battle, but others before him have reached the summit. James Green ‘danced with the Devils’ in 2008, and current Southern head honcho Sean Woods took MVSU to the NCAA tournament just five years later in 2012. That history of success will be Hunter’s go-to selling point on the recruiting trail, as he tries to restock a barren talent cupboard.

Hunter got a head start on the recruiting rat race right under his own roof. His son, Caleb Hunter, chose to stay loyal to his father, despite having offers and interest from far more prominent programs. I wouldn’t expect a repeat of the Antoine Davis effect at Detroit, but baby Hunter will be one of the more impactful newcomers in the SWAC.

Based on MVSU’s exhibition preview last week, Michael Green and Jordan Lyons could round out a potent big-3 for the Delta Devils. Green was in and out of the lineup last season but had a few big scoring outbursts scattered throughout the year. Lyons is a real X-factor inside, a skilled forward at 6’7 who Hunter thinks can flourish out in the open floor. When he snags a rebound, he’s got the handle and floor vision to ‘grab and go’ off a missed shot. He’s perfect as a 4-man alongside 6’11 Richard Rivers (Hunter referred to him as ‘big Rich’ at SWAC media day), a towering presence inside and possible neutralizer on the boards.

Bottom Line: Hunter is already behind the 8-ball arriving on the heels of Dante Scott and Jordan Evans’ departures, the Delta Devils’ two-man-band last year. Without a solidified core in tact, I worry that Hunter will spend much of the season tinkering with a variety of different lineups and rotations, a painful process that will surely manifest in some brutal losses during the non-conference portion of the season.