-Jim Root

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Kane Williams, R Sr., Georgia State
Coach of the Year: Rob Lanier, Georgia State
Newcomer of the Year: Desi Sills, R Sr., Arkansas State
Freshman of the Year: Mannie Harris, Georgia Southern

Tier 1

1. Georgia St.

Key Returners: Kane Williams, Corey Allen, Justin Roberts, Eliel Nsoseme, Jalen Thomas, Nelson Phillips (injury), Evan Johnson, Collin Moore, Joe Jones (injury)
Key Losses: Ryan Boyce
Key Newcomers: Jordan Rawls (Western Kentucky), Chien-Hao Ma, Danny Stubbs, Jamall Clyce, Ja’Hiem Hudson

Lineup:

Outlook: Second chances do not come around frequently in the world of athletics, especially with how much player movement there is currently – at both the college and professional levels. As a result, the opportunity in front of Georgia State is rare: return (almost) everyone from a team that had Sun Belt title aspirations, but one that was frustrated by COVID implications and ultimately fell short in the tournament championship game. Injuries also hampered the Panthers throughout the season (two key players did not play a game), and though they finally found their form late in the year, Georgia State was never truly “right” in 2020-21.

With a fresh start to a brand-new season and a loaded roster returning, optimism abounds in Atlanta. Coach Rob Lanier’s team has four separate players who have earned Sun Belt all-conference honors:

• Kane Williams was a Second Team All-Sun Belt selection in 2019-20

• That same year, Justin Roberts was a Third Team choice

• Last year, Cincinnati transfer Eliel Nsoseme and his double-double averages earned a Third Team spot

• Veteran guard Corey Allen landed on the Second Team in 2020-21, as well

Combined with the return of the rest of the rotation (and the two injured players), Lanier has both the high-end talent and copious depth to make a run at his first league title.

Williams, likely the team’s best player and already a three-year starter for the Panthers, struggled to find consistency last year, particularly after contracting COVID himself. He was not alone in that diagnosis – Nsoseme and reserve JoJo Toppin also missed games – but he was clearly the most affected, missing a game and then shooting an abominable 8-for-36 (2-for-17 from deep) in the subsequent three games. He’s a perfect fit for Lanier’s system on both ends, and if he can rediscover (or even build on) his 2019-20 form, the Panthers will be much closer to delivering on this championship prognosis.

That aforementioned system is one of the most pick-and-roll dominant schemes in the country, attacking defenses from multiple angles with a bevy of ball-handlers and several efficient interior finishers. Williams and Roberts are the two most frequent initiators, but Allen is also a capable creator, and Western Kentucky transfer Jordan Rawls was a highly-regarded point guard recruit, as well. All four players will get opportunities to dictate the attack, and Lanier will give them the freedom to push the ball relentlessly in transition. Georgia State has ranked 24th and 30th in average possession length in Lanier’s first two seasons, indicating his preference to get out in the open floor and find quick shots before the defense can get set.

That kind of versatility in the source of offense also becomes incredibly difficult to defend in the half court, especially if Williams and Roberts can hit shots at a better rate. Allen is a gunner, Evan Johnson is a burgeoning perimeter threat, and Nelson Phillips led the entire Sun Belt in 3P% in ’19-20 before missing all of last year, so Lanier can frequently dot the perimeter with threats if he wants.

Floor spacing was more of a concern for last year’s Panthers, partially due to Phillips’ absence and partially due to roster construction. Nsoseme and fellow big man Jalen Thomas were pretty clearly two of the team’s best five players, but playing them together ensured that two non-shooters were on the court, cramping the spacing for the constant PnR action:

When Nsoseme (#1 in white) rolls, he has nowhere to go, because #32 Ryan Boyce’s defender is already lurking in the paint (the same thing happens when Thomas is out there). Appalachian State can double Allen without fear of the roll man, eventually resulting in a poor shot.

The two-big lineup excelled defensively, but in reality, it was more about simply having Nsoseme on the floor. He was the only competent defensive rebounder on the team, and the Panthers utterly collapsed in that regard when he sat. His two-way impact was irrefutable:

He’ll play as much as possible this year, though with Thomas back and Joe Jones hopefully healthy (a part-time starter in 2019-20), Lanier may have to juggle minutes in the frontcourt, as well. Thomas missed time early in the year with injuries of his own, so perhaps he’ll be more consistent with a fully healthy season. He was especially poor at getting to the charity stripe, attempting just 17 free throws all year in 503 minutes, a stunningly low total for a 6’10, 230-pound guy; he lives in the mid-range.

Note: Jones may be done for his career after another injury. Thanks to Jordan Majewski (@jordubsdan) for pointing this out.

The bigger lineups also had an effect on Lanier’s full court pressure, a frequent feature of both of his first two GSU squads. The 2019-20 version pressed in more of a “create mayhem and generate steals” fashion, flying around the court and speeding up opponents in the process. Last year’s Panthers still pressed at a high rate (17.6% of the time, 41st nationally per Synergy), but they did so in a more conservative way meant to elongate possessions. That approach still forced some turnovers, but it also surrendered more triples – and foes made them at a much higher rate (34.1% last year after 29.9% in 2020). How Lanier opts to defend with such a deep roster – I haven’t even mentioned sophomores Collin Moore or Kaleb Scott, nor any of the talented freshman signees – will be a notable storyline early in the year.  

Bottom Line: Despite several other contenders loading up with big-time transfer pieces, Georgia State’s returning talent and depth gives them a fair shot at capturing the league crown. A bounce-back season for Williams and better health up and down the roster will be vital, though, and Lanier has some key decisions to make with style and rotations, but the Panthers should be amped to take advantage of a “second chance” campaign with basically everyone back.

2. Louisiana

Key Returners: Theo Akwuba, Brayan Au, Dou Gueye, Kobe Julien, Trajan Wesley (injury), Ty Harper, Durey Cadwell (injury)
Key Losses: Cedric Russell (transfer), Mylik Wilson (transfer), Devin Butts (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Greg Williams, Jr. (St. John’s), Jordan Brown (Arizona), Antwann Jones (Creighton), Jalen Dalcourt (San Jose St.), Joe Charles

Lineup:

Outlook: In researching for this preview, I learned that in May, marlin fishermen caught a 683-pound tuna off the coast of Louisiana, which probably seems irrelevant to the Ragin Cajuns basketball team. But it did give me two thoughts: 1) that’s a f****** enormous fish (ok, not relevant); 2) the ocean is terrifying (do you have a point here, Jim?); and 3) Louisiana coach Bob Marlin did some angling for big fish in the waters of the transfer portal this offseason, and boy, did he hook some big ones himself. Considering his best team in Lafayette (2018) was loaded with transfers, that seems like a strong strategy for Marlin to rise back up to the top of the Sun Belt food chain.

In Marlin’s defense, last year’s team was threatening to accomplish that, having swept eventual champion Texas State on the road to close the month of January as part of a 7-3 start to league play. Unfortunately, starting point guard Brayan Au went down with an injury the very next game, and the Cajuns stumbled to a 3-4 finish to the year against a soft-ish (albeit road-heavy) schedule. Au’s on-ball craft, passing vision, and size in the backcourt was mostly irreplaceable, despite the best efforts of late enrollee Ty Harper, and the on/off numbers emphasize that point:

Au was actually already playing through a knee injury after having surgery in October, and when you combine a fully healthy Au with a more experienced Harper, Louisiana could have a formidable point guard tandem. That’s not even mentioning Trajan Wesley, a feisty reserve who missed all of last season with injury; the 5’9 junior is not flashy, but he’s proven himself to be a steadying presence when on the floor.

And really, point guard is the only question mark on this roster. Marlin’s toughest squads dominate the paint, and the three-headed monster of Theo Akwuba (reigning Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year), fifth-year big Dou Gueye, and Arizona transfer/former McDonald’s All-American Jordan Brown will do just that. All three are dominant two-way rebounders, and Akwuba and Brown will both protect the rim with ferocity. Akwuba showed time and again last year that even when he was slightly out of position, he could still swallow up quality players inside:

Marlin is flexible with how he structures his offense, and having both Akwuba and Brown gives him two powerful post up threats on that end through whom he can run things. Gueye is not the same kind of physical specimen, but he’s mobile and active, and there’s at least a sliver of a chance he becomes useful as a perimeter shooter as well. Many power conference teams would be content with the size and talent that trio possesses; it may be the best in all of true mid-majordom.

To soak up any leftover minutes, rising sophomore Isaiah Richards is back as a useful bench piece (and potentially a future star in the league once he’s an upperclassman), and talented forward Kobe Julien will hopefully be healthy as well. Julien is a different kind of player – smaller, more of a ‘tweener type – who allows Marlin to play some small ball and weaponize his centers with a true four-out look around them. He’s struggled with injuries so far in his career, but he has sky-high potential if he can get on the floor consistently.

So far, we’ve only referenced one of Marlin’s big catches this offseason, but the wing rotation looks stacked thanks to his efforts, as well. The gem is Greg Williams, a local kid who is coming back home from St. John’s for his senior year. A bulldog of a defender and a smooth outside shooter (led the Big East in 3P% in conference play), Williams will be a matchup nightmare for thinner Sun Belt guards. He’s also capable of sliding over to the point at times if Au/Harper struggle.

Another Lafayette native, Jalen Dalcourt arrives from San Jose State, a scoring-minded guard whose efficiency withered away while stuck on a mostly hopeless SJSU team playing its home games at an exercise facility in Phoenix, AZ.  The final pieces of the puzzle are Creighton transfer Antwann Jones, an athletic, multi-positional wing who started his career at Memphis, and Durey Cadwell, a JUCO transfer whose first two seasons in Lafayette have been derailed by knee injuries. Fortunately for Marlin, he has the depth to survive an injury or poor season from one or two of this group.

Bottom Line: Like Richie Riley at South Alabama, Marlin faces the challenge of integrating so many vital new pieces into the lineup. It helps that this offseason more resembles a usual one, and the Ragin Cajuns should have a full non-conference slate to sort out roles and rotations. Marlin has the roster to play how he wants – downhill towards the rim, extended and active on the defensive end – so the sky is the limit for Louisiana. Marlin’s track record indicates he’s capable of engineering a cohesive squad, and if he’s able to do that, he may reel in the ultimate trophy fish: an NCAA Tournament appearance.

3. South Alabama

Key Returners: Kayo Goncalves, Jamal West
Key Losses: Michael Flowers (transfer), Tyreke Locure (transfer), John Pettway (transfer), Sam Iorio (transfer), KK Curry (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Greg Parham (VMI), Jay Jay Chandler (Texas A&M), Tyrell Jones (Auburn), Lance Thomas (Memphis), Charles Manning Jr. (LSU), Diante Smith (TCU), Javon Franklin (Auburn), Marshall Kearing (JUCO), Alex Anderson, Tyler Shirley

Lineup:

Note: This preview initially included Emmanuel Littles, who had committed to USA but actually ended up at Nicholls. He has been removed.

Outlook: Few coaches have as expertly adapted to the transfer portal era of college hoops as Richie Riley, the energetic 4th-year boss of South Alabama. From his time at Nicholls beforehand, Riley has consistently mined the transfer wire for key pieces, and this year’s incoming class at South Alabama may finally be his masterpiece – well, until the next one, anyways. Riley reportedly turned down an offer from Utah State to remain at South Alabama, so you know he must be excited about what he’s built there so far.

I cannot tell you what Riley says or does to repeatedly convince talented players to join his program. Is he the most charismatic person alive? Is he dropping bags? Is he offering them magic beans? Whatever it is, he clearly is able to generate excitement about largely nondescript basketball schools, leading to an eight-man (yes, eight) class from the portal joining South Alabama this year – six of whom hail from power conferences – to join two key returners.

The quantity of additions this year may be just as important as the quality, because Riley’s Jaguars have struggled mightily with depth the past couple of seasons. Per KenPom, USA has ranked 337th and 343rd in bench minutes the past two years, and coupled with a dearth of true size, that lack of useful reserves has largely dictated the style Riley has played.

South Alabama has used a ton of zone over the last two seasons, mixing in all kinds of different looks: a straight 2-3, more of a matchup 2-3, box-and-one, triangle-and-two, etc. Those alignments were specifically useful in two key ways: they kept the Jaguars out of foul trouble, and they kept opponents away from the rim. With the group Riley brought in, those concerns are lessened, so he could unleash more man-to-man and run foes off the three-point line, both of which he has done in the past with deeper teams:

That 2017-18 Nicholls team is probably the closest comparison to this roster: transfers, depth, and talent (those Colonels went 21-11, 15-3 in conference).

This year, Lance Thomas should serve as the anchor in the paint, a former Memphis and Louisville player who got buried behind Penny Hardaway’s talented recruits. He did start 13 games during his sophomore year at Memphis, though, and he flashed impressive shot-blocking and an intriguing perimeter game on offense. JUCO transfer Marshall Kearing provides legitimate depth in the paint, which allows 5th-year forward Kayo Goncalves to play his more natural stretch four spot after being forced into center minutes last year.

Goncalves is a lights-out shooter, but he brings little else to the table (38% from deep, but he only took 19 2P shots all year), so he’ll face stiff competition for minutes from down-transfers Javon Franklin and Diante Smith. Franklin, an in-state defector from Auburn, played sparingly for Bruce Pearl, but he showed well in the rare spots he got extended run, while Smith was the opposite in sporadic cameos at TCU. Riley is banking on a change of scenery helping Smith rediscover the form that made him a top 150 recruit.

Going with more man-to-man could maximize the team’s deep wing rotation, as well, including defensive terror Jamal West, a tremendous athlete who should continue to develop in his second season. Smith can play some wing minutes, and LSU import Charles Manning was one of few competent defenders for Will Wade. Like many of these USA transfers, Manning basically had a wasted season last year, but he has the frame and quickness to guard four positions – maybe even five in the Sun Belt.

The backcourt has a bevy of offensive firepower, as well. Tyrell “Turbo” Jones takes over at point guard, the second Auburn transfer on the roster, and as his name may have implied, he’s quite fast. Along with the added depth, Jones’ speed could push Riley to step on the gas pedal, again similar to his 2018 Nicholls squad. Riley went heavy pick-and-roll with his offense last year to empower Michael Flowers, and he likely does something similar with Jones, Greg Parham (VMI), and Jay Jay Chandler (Texas A&M) all capable of getting buckets in the backcourt. Parham was a walking bucket for the Keydets last year, and his playmaking should help Jones avoid being over-burdened on the ball. Chandler is more of a true shooting guard that never lived up to his recruiting billing over two different coaches in College Station, but dropping down a level could help him find his game during his COVID season.

Bottom Line: This roster is basically mid-major Texas: a few holdovers that should make an impact, but its mostly a transfer-dominated squad with impressive pedigree and depth at every position. Like Chris Beard, Richie Riley needs to find the right style and lineup combinations to make it all work, but after basically playing a full season with 6.5 guys last year, he’ll welcome a different kind of challenge. Given the talent present, the Jaguars have an incredibly high ceiling for a Sun Belt team, but there’s inherently some risk to mashing so many new parts together – most of whom underperformed at their previous stops. We’ll go with a slightly conservative prognosis for now.

4. Texas St.

Key Returners: Mason Harrell, Shelby Adams, Isiah Small, Nighael Ceaser, Caleb Asberry
Key Losses: Alonzo Sule (transfer), Marlin Davis
Key Newcomers: Tyrel Morgan (JUCO), Drue Drinnon (JUCO), Nate Lacewell (San Jose St.), Davion Coleman (JUCO), Brandon Love

Lineup:

Outlook: Thanks to the larger-than-life nature of Gregg Marshall (and the money of the Koch brothers), Wichita State got all the attention last year, but there was another school where a young assistant took over in an interim capacity for a maligned coach that was forced to resign. Like Isaac Brown for the Shockers, that replacement then went on to win a regular season championship despite low expectations and earn the full-time gig, gaining the love of his players in the process.

I am, of course, referring to these Texas State Bobcats, where Terrence Johnson accomplished a similar feat to Brown after taking over for previous boss Danny Kaspar. As a result of the offseason turbulence, both schools were counted out in the preseason poll – TXST was voted 10th of 12, Wichita 7th of 11 – and both interim coaches earned their league’s Coach of the Year award for their efforts. For Johnson, the full-time title and the award even came on the same day.

But now, as they say, the real work begins. Johnson maintained most of the structural framework Kaspar had built over his successful tenure, and first and foremost among those tenets was the idea that defense wins championships. The Bobcats played at a snail’s pace (354th in the country, to be exact), forcing opponents to execute time and again against a set defense full of aggressive, rangy defenders. Johnson ran almost exclusively man-to-man, and the players were comfortable playing a similar scheme to what Kaspar had run for years.

One thing the Bobcats lacked was true size: at 6’8, 225 pounds, backup center Nighael Ceaser was both the tallest and heaviest player in the rotation, depicting the height and bulk disadvantage at which the Bobcats frequently played. To further illustrate that point: per KenPom, the Bobcats ranked 315th nationally in average height – common sense would dictate that teams that small should struggle defensively. Johnson, though, contorted that into an advantage, condensing his defense into a tightly-packed cluster away from the ball to keep foes on the perimeter. There, pesky defenders Mason Harrell, Caleb Asberry, and Shelby Adams would harass ball-handlers, making it difficult to initiate offense early in the clock. That led to opponents trying to force the issue, which begat careless turnovers – Texas State ranked 11th nationally in non-steal turnover percentage (basically an “unforced errors” category), again per KenPom.

Once opponents did finally get a shot off (usually a challenged jumper), Texas State was also a tremendous rebounding team despite the lack of size inside, leading the Sun Belt in defensive rebound rate. Lanky forward Isiah Small was a big part of that, and getting the athletic ‘tweener back from the transfer portal was a huge boost for the Bobcats. Ceaser and San Jose State transfer Nate Lacewell will likely compete for the starting center spot alongside him, with Ceaser’s knowledge of the system plus consistent production last year likely giving him the leg up. Both players will be vital in replacing Alonzo Sule, who was indispensable to the team’s offense last year:

It was not really about him, though — he drew quite a bit of defensive attention and made life significantly easier on the guards:

Sophomore Nate Martin and incoming freshman Brandon Love provide more depth, but the Bobcats’ plodding pace does not necessitate an extended rotation (though Johnson has hinted at speeding up a bit).

The same goes for the guard rotation, where Harrell, Asberry, and Adams will play the lion’s share of the minutes. Harrell, the jitterbug point guard, controls the game with authority, and he and Asberry are both lethal from the perimeter (41.9% and 41.7%, respectively). Adams is largely deferential on the offensive end, but he’ll attack driving gaps if the defense has overhelped on Harrell, Asberry, or Small (also a lights-out shooter at 42.1%).

For depth purposes, Johnson hit the JUCO circuit, adding three guys who could all leapfrog the returning reserves for minutes. Drue Drinnon started his career at New Mexico and could give Harrell some more rest, while Davion Coleman and Tyrel Morgan add scoring and versatile size to the backcourt, respectively. Those guys will only see time if they prove they can defend at the level Johnson demands, though.

The offense did stagnate at times last season, partially due to an inability to generate “easy” points – whether that be in transition or from the foul line. Johnson wants to give his guys more freedom to push this year (he told The Athletic’s Brian Bennett that he may have “overcoached a little bit” at times). TXST’s offense also led to a ton of mid-range jumpers, an inefficient result when considering how effective they were from beyond the arc.

Bottom Line: Texas State enters the year as the reigning Sun Belt regular season champions, but defending that title will be a challenge. The Bobcats benefited from a somewhat weaker West division in the league’s COVID scheduling model, and teams like South Alabama and Louisiana really loaded up in the transfer portal. Still, with the way Johnson gets his team to grind out possessions, the Bobcats will not be an easy out for anyone, no matter the talent level.

Tier 2

5. Arkansas St.

Key Returners: Norchad Omier, Marquis Eaton, Caleb Fields, Keyon Wesley, Malcolm Farrington, Christian Willis, Markise Davis, Antwon Jackson
Key Losses: None!
Key Newcomers: Desi Sills (Arkansas)

Lineup:

Outlook: Have you ever seen someone (usually a kid, but we’re not ageist here) swimming/floating in the deep end of a pool, but doing so, ya know, poorly? They’re not drowning, you’re not quite worried about that, but if you had to pick who was winning, you’d quickly say, “the water.” That, friends, is a sad analogy for the Mike Balado tenure at Arkansas State, where he’s managed to stay afloat after four seasons, but it has not been pretty: 51-79 overall, 28-43 in league play, with zero above-.500 finishes overall in the Sun Belt.

Balado’s Red Wolves have never sunk into the depths, and the 2020 team sniffed KenPom’s top 200, but it’s hard to see the results and come away with anything more than a shrug. Balado is in the final year of his contract now, and if the results do not come this year, the concerns about drowning may become all too real.

With any luck, though, this season may see the Red Wolves start scooting around the pool, and an SEC transfer may just be the perfect flotation device. Desi Sills comes home to Jonesboro after three seasons at “the other place,” and the lethal lefty could become a star in his new, more local surroundings. The Jonesboro High grad was a feisty two-way contributor for the Razorbacks, and he should get to show off more of his offensive game in a higher usage role within Balado’s transition-heavy attack.

Sills joins an already formidable tandem in all-world rebounder Norchad Omier and savvy 5th-year point guard Marquis Eaton, and that Big Three has the ability to lift the Red Wolves into the upper echelon of the conference. Omier, the first Nicaraguan to ever earn a Division I scholarship, has immense potential after racking up 15 double-doubles during his maiden college voyage, and the energetic forward should take a sizable leap offensively this year after showing out for his country this offseason.

Eaton, meanwhile, is the straw that stirs the drink, an elite facilitator that led the conference in assist rate while living at the free throw line. The importance of him opting to use his extra season cannot be understated – Omier in particular thrives when playing alongside his floor general:

The other two returning starters in that chart, combo guard Caleb Fields and Keyon Wesley, should also welcome their leader back with open arms. Fields embodies Balado’s “barrage the rim” philosophy, ranking 26th nationally in free throw rate; he’s best when attacking rotating defenders via Eaton closeouts.

Christian Willis also returns after starting almost every game, but Sills’ arrival probably relegates him to bench duty; Willis ranked 5th in the entire country in 3P% last year (51.2%). Fellow sniper Malcolm Farrington and stretch four Markise Davis add even more perimeter pop to the second unit, though the depth behind Omier is limited to widebody Antwon Jackson and little-used backups Lazar Grbovic and Cheikh Ndour, making it paramount that he stays on the floor. Omier struggled with foul issues as an eager freshman, and he needs to curb that tendency for the Red Wolves to become their most vicious.

Balado himself would probably be furious that a preview has gone on this long with no mention of defense; as a former Rick Pitino assistant, he prides himself and his teams on that end of the floor. It was rather surprising, then, to see him make a notable shift in scheme last year, ramping down the on-ball pressure in favor of avoiding fouls and walling off the paint. Omier’s dominance at the rim and on the glass was a perfect fulcrum for that shift, although declining rates of zone and full court pressure indicate this has been coming:

He’ll still mix in some pressure and a couple matchup zone looks – Pitino’s teams thrived by changing defenses and keeping foes on the back foot – but the trendlines point towards that continuing to dwindle.

Balado’s guards were already a fairly solid perimeter group, and though the Red Wolves de-emphasized forcing turnovers last year, they still made an effort to take away the three-ball. Sills adds another disruptive, strong defender in the backcourt, and as Omier continues to blossom along the back line (along with steady presence Wesley), Arkansas State could take a sizable step on that end in 2021-22.

One last tangent re: the offense – Balado ran a ton of ball screen motion with his first couple teams, emphasizing his backcourt creators and empowering them to make plays. Like the zone looks, though, the pick-and-roll numbers have shrank over the years, but perhaps this is the year to bring them back: per Synergy, Eaton was a total monster in ball screens, scoring in the 93rd percentile while also smartly distributing out of that action. With Fields (also solid) and Sills joining him, the Red Wolves could be a nightmare to handle on the perimeter, and any defensive confusion will open up rebounding lanes for the tenacious Omier to get easy putbacks.

Bottom Line: With the pivotal addition of Sills plus Eaton returning for an extra season, this looks like Balado’s best team at Arkansas State. Unfortunately, the top of the league is loaded with talent and experience, as well, so clawing into the top tier could be difficult. Still, Omier is a Player of the Year candidate if he takes a sophomore leap (and maybe even if not – he’s one of two First Team honorees returning to school), so if Balado can get the returning core to properly integrate Sills (himself probably POY candidate too), he could be swimming his way into a new contract come March.

6. Appalachian St.

Key Returners: Michael Almonacy, Justin Forrest, Adrian Delph, Donovan Gregory, James Lewis Jr., RJ Duhart, Xavion Brown, CJ Huntley
Key Losses: None, really
Key Newcomers: Terence Harcum, Chris Mantis

Lineup:

Outlook: ‘Twas a tale of two postseasons for the Mountaineers. Part One was a thrill and a half, as what had been a middling Sun Belt team with minimal depth won four games in four days, clawing its way through a competitive tournament field in Pensacola en route to the program’s first NCAA Tournament berth since 2000. A three point-heavy offense finally got hot for a multi-game stretch:

The Mountaineers went on that run despite losing starting big man James Lewis to injury during the quarterfinal matchup with Texas State, stretching the bench even more thin as the team won two consecutive overtime games. Coach Dustin Kerns & Co. somehow did not run out of gas in the title game, though, and they managed to complete one of the most impressive conerence tournament runs in recent memory.

(Intermission as the team entered the NCAA Tournament bubble in Indianapolis…)

Part Two is where the honeymoon period swiftly ends. In a First Four game against Norfolk State, the Mountaineers’ SB Tourney shooting vanished, as they went a staggering 0-for-20 from 3P range in the first half, digging a 16-point hole by the break. An extended 26-4 run gave them a lead late, but their offensive struggles returned, posting a paltry two points in the final six minutes en route to a crushing 54-53 loss in the final seconds.

Win or lose, Kerns wants his team firing away from deep. A crisp spread motion offense thrives via execution and multiple actions, using dribble handoffs to force defenses to help and get into rotations, often with the end goal of generating a perimeter jumper. Unfortunately, that system often got stuck in the mud as the App State shooters simply did not make enough shots to warrant real respect from defenses (10th percentile nationally on spot ups, 267th in 3P%). With every relevant piece from last season’s postseason darling returning, the offensive execution should be pristine. But can the Mountaineers extrapolate their Sun Belt Tournament shooting (or something close to that) over the course of a full season?

The answer largely rests with the three-headed backcourt of Justin Forrest, Michael Almonacy, and Adrian Delph, all of whom will play heavy minutes loads this season. With his decision to utilize his extra COVID season, Forrest will likely become the school’s all-time leading scorer, a true three-level threat who also has evolved as a perimeter defender throughout his career. He got out of the gates extremely slowly last year and then dealt with a concussion against Tennessee, but he caught fire down the back half of Sun Belt play, and he should have a banner final season in Boone.

Almonacy has not been around as long as his fellow fifth-year teammate, but he quickly stepped in as a secondary playmaker after arriving from Division II Southern New Hampshire, and his scalding run through the Sun Belt Tourney (20-for-39 from deep in four games) will be the stuff of App State legend for years.

If Forrest and Almonacy are copilots of the Mountaineers’ offensive Millenium Falcon, then Delph is firmly entrenched in the gunner seat, a capable shooter who, like Forrest, got hot down the stretch and in Sun Belt play (36.6% from deep). Guard depth is not plentiful, but Xavion Brown and Michael Eads logged some key minutes as a freshman, so Kerns will hope either or both can take the next step to becoming useful reserves in their second go-round.

The frontcourt is thin, but it may hold the Mountaineers’ most indispensable two-way player in Donovan Gregory. Put simply, the ‘tweener forward does a little bit of everything, attacking the offensive glass and generating open shots for the guards while often guarding the opponent’s best player on the other end – and doing it well. The roster does not have anyone else capable of filling his role, and the on/off numbers show how App State collapsed when he rested:

He famously posted a ridiculous 4-point, 14-rebound, 6-assist, 8-steal stat line against Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt semis, and that kind of box score barrage embodies what Gregory brings to the table. Freshman Chris Mantis will likely be groomed as his successor, but expect Gregory to live on the court in big games.

Up front, Lewis is a steady option in the paint who mostly goes about his role in a hyper-efficient manner; when he missed time in the SBT, RJ Duhart stepped in admirably despite lacking the same kind of bulk. He, CJ Huntley, and Sasha Glushkov should plug in as the backup bigs, and if any of them can add some strength this offseason, that guy will have the inside track to a bigger role.

Despite the sometimes-stagnant offense, App State remained competitive via a tenacious edge defensively, battling against bigger opponents and forcing foes into jump shots. Thanks in large part to Forrest and Gregory, the Mountaineers threaded the rare needle of racking up steals while avoiding fouls, and that delicate ability fueled what little transition attack Kerns allowed.

Bottom Line: For a team that won the league tournament and returns essentially everyone, you might expect a higher perch in the preseason standings. However, some concerns remain with the offense after App State was up and down most of the regular season, and the rest of the league also brought back a ton (and in most cases added notable transfer pieces). Kerns is one of the brightest minds in mid-major coaching, and his teams play their tails off, so never count out App State – especially if the shots start falling.

Tier 3

7. UT Arlington

Key Returners: David Azore, Patrick Mwamba, Nicolas Elame, KO Akobundu-Ehiogu
Key Losses: Shahada Wells (transfer), Sam Griffin (transfer), Jordan Phillips (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Javon Levi (UTRGV), Pedro Castro (Houston Baptist), Shemar Wilson (JUCO), Jack Hoiberg (Michigan St.), Montez Young

Lineup:

Outlook: Come on in and have a seat, Arlington fans – the Texas Tech and UTEP faithful are already here. You know what this meeting is about: to talk about your head coaches leaving for big $$$ at big bad Texas, and we want you to find peace in the aftermath.

UTA and Texas Tech fans actually have a lot more in common than they probably realize. Obviously, both Chris Beard and Chris Ogden went to Austin this offseason, but both schools also replaced them with the older, former associate head coach/defensive coordinator who has spent many years in the JUCO ranks (Mark Adams and Greg Young). As if that’s not enough, Adams and Young are good friends – Young’s college roommate’s dad lived with Adams’ dad in college. Got all that??

Of course, it’s easier to feel bad for TTU. Those fans loved Beard, and the administration did everything it could to set him up for success (and succeed he did). Ogden, on the other hand, was the result of a shocking decision by the UTA powers that be, canning alum Scott Cross after the best three-year stretch in the history of the school. Look what Ogden did in three years compared to the span that got Cross fired:

• Ogden: 44-47 (31-24 in Sun Belt play)

• Cross: 72-33 (37-19)

That makes sese, right? The grass is not always greener, folks…

As Young takes over, expect to see some throwbacks to the Cross era, as Young coached under him for nine seasons at UTA before remaining on staff when Ogden took over. The longtime assistant has seen it all in his 35-year coaching career, and now that he’s finally in charge of a Division I program, he’s going to stick with what he saw work under Cross:

“We’re gonna play with speed and rhythm and pace and imagination, and it’s going to be a fun style of play,” Young said. “That’s how I’ve always played offense and that’s the way, you know, we played here when we were successful, you know, the last four or five years before [Ogden]. And not that we weren’t successful offensively during [Ogden’s] tenure, but I’m gonna play sort of the way we played before that.”

Executing that kind of system requires multiple ball-handlers, and Young got a good one in UTRGV transfer Javon Levi, annually one of the best passers in the sport (led the country in assist rate in 2019-20) while also being an absolute demon on the defensive end (3rd nationally in steal rate last year). He’s less successful when teams turn him into a scorer in the half court, but as a transition ball-handler, he’ll regularly be dropping dimes like this:

Joining him as a fully capable secondary creator is Nicolas Elame, a part-time starter last year who excels at attacking closeouts. Neither Levi nor Elame will cause any defensive panic with their bricky jumpers, though, so Young will need a healthy season from smooth-shooting wing David Azore to maintain some spacing. It also helps that Patrick Mwamba developed into a bona fide stretch four last season, opening up the paint for drives, and Houston Baptist transfer/UTA boomerang Pedro Castro was a lights-out shooter last season as well. It’s unclear if mini-Mayor Jack Hoiberg can defend well enough to play at this level, but he could add an element of shooting and playmaking off the bench, as well.

Azore, it should be noted, is more than just a shooter. He’s a burly lefty who can get downhill and live at the free throw line, inviting contact with his strong frame and converting at an 80% clip when he gets to the stripe. He missed extended time last year with a leg injury, but he returned for the final four games of the season and averaged 15.8 PPG in that span (he also made an appearance on SportsCenter with a crazy game-winning 4-point play). Azore and the hyper-versatile Castro are both capable ball-handers, and their ability to grab-and-go off the defensive glass will ignite Young’s transition attack.

Another key to the Cross/Young style on both ends of the floor will be Kao Akobundu-Ehiogu, a mega-long, mega-lanky big man who became a starter late in the season and earned a scholarship thanks to his incredible shot-blocking abilities. Per Hoop-Explorer, opponents shot 50.8% at the rim with him on the court, compared to 60.4% when he sat – a massive gap.

He will need to become something on offense, though. Before an 11-point scoring explosion against Louisiana on February 22nd, Akobundu-Ehiogu actually had more blocked shots (50) than points (42) for the season, and for the season, 15 of his 21 field goals were dunks (per BartTorvik). Playing with a top-shelf passer like Levi should get him plenty of easy buckets — so long as he’s able to catch the nifty passes Levi sends his way.

Lazaro Rojas is back as a more lumbering option, but the mobility and rim protection that “Kao” (pronounced K-O) brings seem perfect as a back line for the defensive pressure and high tempo that Young wants to deploy. Similarly, JUCO transfer Shemar Wilson could end up earning frontcourt minutes for all of those same reasons, and freshman Montez Young has a chance to snag some playing time as well.

Bottom Line: Young is thrilled to have a chance to finally lead a program, and a return to more of a Scott Cross-esque style could be a boon for the Mavericks. The offense consistently lacked punch under Ogden, and bringing in Levi to orchestrate a transition-heavy attack makes perfect sense. Young has been the defensive coordinator for years, so that side of the ball should be a strength if UTA sees some 3P% regression (foes were lights-out last year), and Kao will be an absolute menace at the rim. If you look closely, there’s legitimate upside here, enough to break into the league’s top half if health cooperates, and all of the UTA, UTEP, and Texas Tech fanbases may ultimately end up content with their regime changes.

8. Coastal Carolina

Key Returners: Ebrima Dibba, Essam Mostafa, Kevin Williamson, Garrick Green
Key Losses: DeVante Jones (transfer), DeAnthony Tipler (transfer), Tyrik Dixon
Key Newcomers: Vince Cole (St. John’s), Rudi Williams (Kansas St.), Wilfried Likayi (New Mexico St.), Jourdan Smith (JUCO), Joshua Uduje

Lineup:

Outlook: This offseason sent shockwaves through the college basketball world when legendary coaches Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski announced their retirements (or planned retirement). Speculation about who might be next was inevitable: will it be 76-year-old Jim Boeheim? What about 75-year-old Jim Larranaga? Probably not 73-year-old Leonard Hamilton, because he’s actually an ageless android. Overlooked in that discussion, though, is 75-year-old Cliff Ellis, he of the 798 career Division I wins and 43 seasons as a head coach. Of course, Ellis is coming off one of his best seasons at Coastal Carolina, so there’s no reason for him to go anywhere – at least not until after he’s hit that 800-win threshold this year…

It will not be easy to re-create last year’s success, though. Not without Sun Belt Player of the Year DeVante’ Jones, who took aim at the big boy Big Ten by transferring to Michigan, leaving Ellis and the Chanticleers (sounds like a 70’s smooth jazz band) without a lethally efficient scorer who blossomed playing off the ball and emerged into one of the country’s most disruptive defenders.

Let’s start there, because if Coastal is going to maintain its position near the top of the standings, it will be because of a tricky defense that absolutely confounded opponents in the half court last year. Ellis brought back his myriad zone looks with a vengeance, upping their usage from 12.8% of possessions in 2020 to 24.6% last year (Synergy). The amorphous alignments were difficult to identify and attack, partially because they would mutate even within possessions. Watch this apparently vanilla 2-3 zone melt into a matchup look:

Ellis pulled out all the tricks: 1-3-1, box-and-1, 3-2 matchup, etc. And those zones were untouchable: also per Synergy, opponents scored a pitiful 0.707 against them, even lower than the already-great 0.778 against Coastal’s man-to-man. All told, the Chanticleers surrendered 0.76 PPP in half court settings, ranking them in the 99th percentile nationally (!!!) on a raw basis.

Jones and Tyrik Dixon were demons on the ball, and Ellis will look to Kansas State transfer Rudi Williams to fill the void they left behind. Ebrima Dibba and Kevin Williamson offer tons of length on the wing, and St. John’s transfer Vince Cole will fit right in after playing in Mike Anderson’s disruptive defensive schemes. That perimeter pressure and length is crucial to keeping foes out of rhythm; Coastal surrenders a ton of threes, so if opponents are comfortable, they can fill it up.

Inside, Essam Mostafa is a sturdy figure holding down the paint, and shot-swatting monolith DeShawn Thomas started to see more run down the stretch. If Thomas can earn more minutes (12-15ish?), he will be a game-changer – his block rate of 18.3% would have led the country with ease. New Mexico State transfer Wilfried Likayi lacks that kind of upside, but he’s a steady depth option who also played for a terrific defensive coach in Chris Jans.   

With such an impervious half court defense, the only way foes could score consistently was in transition, and score they did. The Chants struggled to get back behind the ball (particularly the slow-footed Mostafa), giving up a relatively high volume of efficient transition chances. Opponents who run – Georgia State, Louisiana, UTA – should find success.

If the “transition vs. half court” dilemma seems like a no-brainer because of the defensive numbers – shouldn’t they just slow to a crawl and suffocate teams that way? – then the Chants’ offensive numbers present the other side of the story. Led by Jones and lights-out shooter DeAnthony Tipler, Coastal was a terror in the open floor, ranking in the 90th percentile nationally. When forced to play in the half court, though, that dropped to the 44th percentile, as Ellis’ motion continuity often had struggles generating open shots.

Dibba emerged as the key ball-handler and facilitator, often bringing the ball up the court and then setting up shop at the free throw line to spot cutters or attack off the bounce. That allowed Jones and Tipler to hunt shots and scoring opportunities, and Cole and Williams will now fill those scoring roles instead. Williamson earned a starting spot late in the year, and though he may be usurped by the talented Cole, he can be a perimeter threat off the bench, as well. NAIA transfer James Jones adds yet another potent wing after racking 20.0 PPG for the national champion Shawnee State Bears — as long as he can handle the huge step up in competition.

Mostafa is the other key to the attack. He’s terrific at using his body to carve out space inside, either on post ups or while attacking the offensive glass, and he should only continue to get better as he makes the fabled sophomore leap. Likayi and Ahmard Harvey give Ellis conventional two-big looks alongside him (and those groups will hammer the boards), but Ellis may opt for a smaller starting group with Dibba and Cole as the forwards to amplify the spacing around Mostafa and the Chants’ copious cutting.

Bottom Line: Losing Jones knocks the ceiling down a peg, and Tipler’s October departure added to the Chants’ challenges. Still, Ellis’ varied defensive looks and the combination of Dibba’s passing, Mostafa’s interior scoring, and the shooting of Williams/Cole/Williamson establishes a fairly sturdy floor, as well. Coastal Carolina has consistently found itself in the middle of the Sun Belt pack since arriving to the league in 2016-17, and this year looks to be more of the same.

9. Georgia Southern

Key Returners: Elijah McCadden, Gedi Juozapaitis, Cam Bryant, Kamari Brown, Prince Toyambi, Kaden Archie, Andrei Savrasov
Key Losses: Eric Boone (transfer), Zack Bryant (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Carlos Curry (JUCO), Tre Cobbs (Division II), Derrick Harris, Amar Augillard

Lineup:

*** - McFatten tore an ACL and is out for the year

Outlook: Mid-major coaches are like flowers: an analogy by Jim Root! The trouble with having a quality coach at the mid-major level is that one day, like a blossoming plant needing a new pot, that coach will outgrow you, leaving you subject to the fickle nature of planting a new one. That process becomes even more painful when the old plant continues to bloom in its new environment, all while you wait for the new one to take root. 

Gardeners or not, Georgia Southern fans likely get the gist of that comparison, as they watched their Eagles tumble back to reality under new boss Brian Burg; meanwhile, former coach Mark Byington won a CAA regular season title at James Madison in his first season with the school. Burg had to basically assemble a new roster from scratch, so the step back was not entirely unexpected, but it’s still a rude awakening for a program that had won 20+ games for three straight seasons under Byington.

An anomalous start to the season in terms of 3P shooting splits was a massive culprit behind the Eagles’ early struggles. GSU’s opponent made as many or more threes as the Eagles and shot at least 10% better from deep in GSU’s first seven Division I games:

Any team dealing with that kind of disparity is going to stumble early and often, and although Burg’s boys did manage to win three of those games, one does wonder if playing four non-D1 games in the season’s first month (including two against ultimate punching bag Carver Bible) actually harmed the Eagles, rather than building confidence.

Perhaps just as disconcerting as the lack of winning was the seismic shift in style for the Eagles. Burg, a Chris Beard disciple, slowed the offense significantly, ranking 261st in average possession length after Byington’s final two teams ranked 26th and 9th in the same category. That plodding half court attack was impotent, generating few open looks and only surviving thanks to the hard work of Prince Toyambi on the offensive glass. Toyambi was a one-man wrecking crew, ranking 2nd nationally in offensive rebound rate; his rate by itself was higher than four entire teams in that particular category:

Of course, Burg only sent one man to the glass consistently (backup big man Mackenzie McFatten did yeoman’s work as well, but he is out for the season with a torn ACL), so any other second shots were typically few and far between. JUCO transfer Carlos Curry will back up Toyambi and is a capable rebounder himself, but the “send one to the glass” philosophy should remain.

The high-usage guard tandem of Zack Bryant and Eric Boone both exited Statesboro this offseason, and replacing them will be a difficult task. For all their warts (inefficient shooting, turnover-prone), they were by far the two most dynamic off-the-bounce players on the GSU roster, and their shot creation will be missed. Burg’s system is rather isolation-heavy, so guys like Elijah McCadden and Kentucky Wesleyan transfer Tre Cobbs will be given a massive offensive burden – possibly more than they can handle.

Freshman Derrick “Mannie” Harris is a highly-touted in-state recruit who will likely play from the jump; he’s not a pure point guard, but he’s a born-and-bred scorer, so his aggressive offensive game will be most welcome. Wing Kaden Archie has mostly been a disaster to this point in his college career, but he was originally a top 100 recruit at TCU, so if he can uncover any untapped potential, that would also be a surprise boost. It’s actually somewhat stunning he remained in Statesboro after being unceremoniously benched down the stretch.

The roster does have several off-ball shooters, but only Gedi Juozapaitis made enough shots to actually command respect from opponents. Kamari Brown was not shy, but he made just 26.7% from beyond the arc against Division I competition, and forward Andrei Savrasov, who followed Burg from Texas Tech, was actually slightly worse (25.0%). Rising sophomore Cam Bryant has potential given his combination of size and skill, but he either needs to add more to his game (just 12 free throw attempts all year) or become a deadlier sniper (33.3% from deep is fine, but not good enough to be a specialist) to become truly useful.

Because of how reliant Burg’s offense was on Bryant/Boone dribble drives, opponents zoned Georgia Southern constantly, doing so on 36.6% of the Eagles’ offensive possessions – the 2nd-highest rate seen nationally, per Synergy. That put them in the company of other penetration-reliant offenses, like Miami (FL), Bryant, and NC State. Without enough quality shooters or smart ball movers, the Eagles simply could not find easy buckets against those zones, instead settling for long jumpers and experiencing long scoring droughts.

Defense needs to be the calling card for this squad, and Burg has tried to bring the in-your-face, no-middle, switching man-to-man system from Lubbock. It succeeded in some ways – the Eagles forced an extremely high volume of inefficient isolation possessions and generated a ton of takeaways – but GSU was not able to consistently secure defensive rebounds. Toyambi was often on an island there, and Burg will hope Curry (also formerly of Ole Miss) can help lock down the defensive boards.

Once the above-mentioned perimeter downpour finally ended in league play, the Eagles actually held up well on D (3rd in AdjDE in the Sun Belt during league play). Thus, if Curry can help finish possessions in that way, the defense will be a legitimate strength, even while replacing Boone’s livewire ball pressure.   

Bottom Line: The Eagles took their lumps in year one of the Burg era, and although the new roster additions don’t scream “vault me up the standings,” a year of continuity within the new coach’s system could be a sneaky edge, especially considering how many new pieces Burg had to incorporate last year. The Eagles should be a stout defensive squad, but if this Statesboro flower is going to blossom, the offense needs copious water and sunlight this offseason.

10. Troy

Key Returners: Nick Stampley, Zay Williams, Duke Miles, Khalyl Waters, Desmond Williams, Jakevan Leftridge, Kieffer Punter, Christian Turner
Key Losses: Kam Woods (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Efe Odigie (UTEP), TK Smith (Kent St.), Duke Deen (JUCO), Christyon Eugene (JUCO), Rifen Miguel (Ohio)

Lineup:

Outlook: The Scott Cross era at Troy remained stuck in neutral in year two, as the Trojans limped to an 11-17 overall record (4-12 in Sun Belt play) and a finish outside of the KenPom top 300. Cross is still turning over the roster and getting his players into the program, but some forward progress would certainly be nice to see for both the administration and the fans. His job is not in any danger, but year three sets up as something of a “Cross-roads” for the former UT Arlington boss, who has acknowledged that he hoped for more immediate success:

“I thought it would be a little bit quicker. Sometimes you have short-term success that’s hard to sustain. I think if you have the root structure and you have the culture in place, you can have that sustained success where you’re at the top three-four-five years in a row and you just keep winning. That’s what we’re trying to do here. Our culture is in a phenomenal place right now.”

Digging into the Trojans’ seemingly unrelated problems from last year, and they all trace back to one consistent thread: an extraordinarily young and inexperienced backcourt, lacking in potent outside shooting and sound decision-making. Those issues spilled into the defense in multiple ways, and though that backcourt problem was especially glaring last year, it also means that improvement there will permeate throughout the rest of Troy’s system, as well.  

Let’s start with the obvious: starting a freshman point guard (Duke Miles) is always a hurdle, and Miles’ growing pains were on full display as he shot just 18.4% from beyond the arc and racked up almost as many turnovers (80) as assists (90). Of course, he was handed the reins in one of the most pick-and-roll heavy attacks in the country:

Despite that immense responsibility, Miles acquitted himself well as a driver while displaying impressive vision (36th nationally in assist rate) while getting demonstrably better as the season progressed. Just ask UT Arlington about him ending their season with a 26-5-9-4 explosion in the Sun Belt Tournament.

He’ll also have more support in the form of another Duke: Duke Deen, a lightning-quick junior college transfer who stuffed the stat sheet for Panola College despite standing just 5’8. The size is an obvious limitation, but he gets a ton of lift on his jumper, and he has some “Chris Lykes” suddenness to his game that enables him to get into pockets of space. That should allow Desmond Williams to remain off the ball, where he’s best-served as a spot up shooter, and it mitigates the loss of Kam Woods, the other freshman guard whose poor shooting often derailed the offense.

It’s hard to run a spread pick-and-roll offense if the defense does not feel threatened enough to respect the “spread” aspect, and that was frequently a problem last year as opponents choked the paint while ignoring Williams, Woods, and basically everyone else – Troy shot just 28.1% from deep against D1 competition, ranking 341st nationally. The domino effect led to even more difficult shots when driving plus plenty of turnovers as foes dug down on those drives. That means guys like Khalyl Waters and Nick Stampley, two fifth-year players using their extra season, will need to hit more shots, and it opens up playing time for Kent State transfer TK Smith, a lethal JUCO scorer back in 2019-20 who hit 142 triples in two years at Polk State. He did not see the court much for Kent State before transferring, but he’s going to quickly command minutes for the Trojans.  

Turnovers, tons of missed threes, young backcourt…yep, that’s a three-ingredient recipe for a Poor Transition Defense casserole, and opponents were happy to let that mixture cook all season long. Per Hoop-Math, 27.5% of all field goals that Troy surrendered came in transition, the 19th-highest rate nationally, and those high-value chances sunk what was actually a competent unit in the half court.

The interior defense, a huge issue in 2019-20, saw some stabilization thanks to Zay Williams, a string bean of a big man who dominated the defensive glass and had a profound effect on opponents’ offenses. Per Hoop-Explorer, opponents scored 103.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and that number skyrocketed to 114.7 per 100 when he sat. He’ll finally have some help inside with the arrivals of Efe Odigie from UTEP and Rifen Miguel from Ohio, two strong centers capable of soaking up some Sun (Belt minutes).

Williams made for a solid PnR partner with Miles, using his length to finish around the rim:

Odigie, though, gives the Trojans a wider body who can carve out space and score 1v1 in the post if the initial screening action does not generate anything, something Cross has not had since arriving at Troy. Odigie is also an elite defensive rebounder, meaning that area will not see such a sudden drop-off when Williams is on the bench. Miguel, meanwhile, is a similar player to Odigie who will serve as a depth piece behind those two.

To this point in our preview, Stampley’s impact has been massively understated, but his decision to utilize the extra year should buoy Trojan fans’ optimism. He’s a hard-working, versatile lefty who helps in multiple areas and embodies the team’s hyper-competitive attitude, and he proved to be a weapon in pick-and-pop and “slip the screen” situations last year, using his mobility to frustrate slower opponents. If he continues to develop his jumper – he went from 4-for-33 (12.1%) as a junior to 34-for-112 (30.4%) as a senior – that unlocks an extra dimension for both Stampley and the entire Trojan offense.  

Bottom Line: Troy brings a ton back from last year, but considering how bad last year’s team was, that’s not always a good thing. Fortunately, Cross went out and got a few difference-makers in Deen, Smith, and Odigie, and the extra year of growth for Miles should prove crucial. If the backcourt sees some improvement, both in terms of hitting shots and decision-making, that should be a “rising tide lifts all boats” scenario, and the Trojans could make a sneaky move up the Sun Belt standings in Cross’ third year if things break right.

Tier 4

11. Little Rock

Key Returners: Nikola Maric, Marko Lukic, C.J. White, Alsean Evans (injury), Marko Andric
Key Losses: Ruot Monyyong, Markquis Nowell (transfer), Ben Coupet (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Kevin Osawe (Western Kentucky), Jordan Jefferson, Myron Gardner (JUCO), DeAntoni Gordon (JUCO), Chris Walker

Lineup:

Outlook: If you have the kind of mystical compass needed to navigate the ups and downs of Little Rock basketball program, please do share it with us. Over the last two years, the Trojans have been downright perverse in their defiance of preseason expectations, so much so that it feels like a deliberate sneak attack on anyone trying to prognosticate their outlook. You know, some sort of elaborate ploy involving a giant, hollow, fake horse where they sneak out in the middle of the night and…ok, you get the idea.

In 2019-20, aka Coach Darrell Walker’s second season in charge, Sun Belt preseason pollsters and 3MW alike pegged Little Rock at 11th in the conference, only for the Trojans to rampage to a regular season title by two games. With many key pieces back for 2020-21, respect was earned and shown: Little Rock was the preseason favorite by the conference (and 3MW). Instead, the Trojans plummeted to 10th, twisting everyone’s brains into a pretzel. A side effect of that precipitous drop: Little Rock was one of the five worst teams in the country against the spread:

A huge reason for the Trojans’ collapse was a complete lack of competent guard play, primarily due to star point guard Markquis Nowell seemingly melting down as the season wore on. Nowell was ejected from a game in mid-January and suspended for the following game, and he was also held out of two games “for disciplinary reasons” at the start of January. He eventually opted out of the season, prompting this not-so-friendly quote from his head coach:

"Markquis didn't want to be part of the team," Walker said. "So at the end of the day, he has opted out. That's the best thing for him, and it's the best thing for us, and we are definitely happy to be moving on."

That may have helped team chemistry, but it left Little Rock in dire straits as an offense, because the Trojans no longer had anyone capable of creating a shot. Walker leaned hard into a post-heavy, high-low identity featuring skilled bigs Ruot Monyyong and Nikola Maric, nearly eschewing pick-and-roll entirely without any ball-handlers to run it:

Maric likely remains the focal point of the offense this year, and he’s a skilled operator on the block with great touch on half-hooks. Unfortunately, he was often forced to play in a crowd akin to the Deer District for an NBA Finals game, as the Trojans lacked the shooting threats to command defenses’ respect and provide decent spacing. With a boost in that department, Maric could thrive.

He loses his high-low partner in Monyyong, but Admir Besovic provides depth behind Maric, and three transfers should fill the power forward spot by committee: WKU import Kevin Osawe and JUCO products Myron Gardner and DeAntoni Gordon. All three are built similarly and have solid pedigrees, as Osawe was a monster JUCO player at Vincennes prior to WKU, Gordon actually began his college career playing for Gregg Marshall at Wichita State, and Gardner was initially at Georgetown. Monyyong was a Third Team All-Sun Belt performer and former league Defensive Player of the Year, so replicating his production will be a challenge, but that trio gives Walker more versatility and skill.

If Little Rock is to outperform its preseason ranking again, it will take significant development from the veterans in the backcourt – and impact from the rookies. Marko Lukic is the roster’s lone proven shooter, and the Serbian will enjoy being able to avoid creation reps this year. Fellow countryman Marko Andric was essentially the last ball-handler standing, and he performed reasonably well in limited minutes; there’s hope that being thrown in the fire last year will give him a sizable boost as a sophomore. Isaiah Palermo has been horribly overmatched through two years in the Sun Belt, so it’s hard to bank on him for any meaningful production, while Jovan Stulic suffered through a miserable sophomore slump after a promising rookie campaign.

Walker will hope CJ White can provide a much greater lift this year, as the SMU transfer was an atrocious shooter after gaining eligibility in December. His minutes increased late, and a 15-point performance against Arkansas State at least provides some evidence of his ceiling, but he needs to rediscover the 3P stroke he showed as a sophomore at SMU (35.5%) rather than the 25.9% mark he posted last year. If he does not, oft-injured Alsean Evans (only two games in two years) will be waiting in the wings for playing time.

Two freshmen have obvious routes to playing time if they can grasp Walker’s concepts quickly. Justin Jefferson could be the de facto starter at point guard thanks to his quickness and solid vision, and wing Chris Walker (no relation to the coach) was a productive winner at Wellington High School in Florida. Still, a freshman-heavy backcourt has its own limitations (read: decision-making).

Bottom Line: Without Monyyong roaming the paint and lurking at the top of Walker’s infrequent zone looks, it’s easy to see the defense struggling again. Perhaps having more perimeter quickness will help eliminate some straight-line drives, but that’s not an automatic. The offense will need a boost from the fledgling backcourt and the intriguing forward transfers; otherwise, Maric will once again have zero room to operate inside. Even with a refreshed team outlook sans Nowell, it’s hard to see this group climbing the standings after the Trojans went 1-7 following his departure. Prove us wrong a third time, Little Rock!

12. Louisiana Monroe

Key Returners: Russell Harrison, Koreem Ozier, Elijah Gonzales, Thomas Howell, Luke Phillips
Key Losses: Marco Morency (transfer), Josh Nicholas (transfer), Chris Efretui (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Andre Jones (Nicholls), Reginald Gee (Austin Peay), Nika Metskhvarishvili (JUCO), Trey Boston (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: It’s a dark time in Monroe, as the Warhawks have now gone five straight years without finishing above .500 in the Sun Belt (30-62 over that span). Coach Keith Richard has now managed that feat (finishing above .500) just twice in his 11-year tenure at the school, and barring some unexpected developments for the squad this year, it looks like that will soon become two in 12.

After having one of the most electric mid-major offenses in the country in 2018-19 (mostly out of nowhere – thanks, Daishon Smith), a severe talent drain on that end has left the Warhawks with few routes to easy buckets. Despite having some decent perimeter shooters, ULM has been unable to generate quality shots, and the team’s finishing at the rim was truly nightmarish even when it got there (55.0%, 298th nationally, per Hoop-Math).  

To try and juice the attack, Richard let his team run more than normal last year, particularly when Russell Harrison would grab-and-go off the defensive glass. Unfortunately, the team was horrendous on those transition possessions, scoring 0.886 points per possession to rank in the 6th percentile nationally (Synergy). Harrison was a prime culprit there, somehow shooting 14-for-49 on shots in the open floor, and his inability to finish was emblematic of the entire team. He certainly took some ill-advised shots:

There’s no universe where that is smart. Why!

His struggles inside the arc extended to the half court, where he often seemed to be “hoping” the ball would go in, rather than shooting it. Still, he’s one of the most dynamic players on the team and can give slower-footed foes problems, so Richard will need him to take a leap in his second year of Division I hoops.

ULM will also need more efficiency from the backcourt, particularly veteran Koreem Ozier and incoming transfers Andre Jones and Reginald Gee. Ozier proved to be a solid slasher in his first season after arriving from Sacred Heart, but his turnover issues undermined some of that effectiveness. Jones, meanwhile, finally gives the Warhawks some size in the backcourt, something they totally lacked last year with Langston Powell out for most of the season with injury. He’s a big guard accustomed to playing in transition, but the Sun Belt is a step up from the Southland, so he could have some uneven performances. Gee is more of a shooter despite his imposing frame, and ULM needs him to help replace the deadly Josh Nicholas on the perimeter.

If you’re looking for signs of optimism in the backcourt, the emergence of Elijah Gonzales as a consistent performer down the stretch of last season should be a big one. He racked up 69 assists to just 32 turnovers in Sun Belt play while starting the final 12 games of the year, and his outside shooting (45% on the year) became a legitimate weapon. Powell’s return to full health should also help; he was a solid starter down the stretch of 2020.

The newcomers to the roster – Jones, Gee, JUCO transfers Eddie “Trey” Boston and Nika Metskhvarishvili – will need to help repair the Warhawks’ horrendous rebounding, as ULM ranked outside of the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. The glass is typically a weakness of Richard’s teams, but his best squads (2015 and 2016) flipped that narrative, especially on the offensive end. However, only Metskhvarishvili has much size of that bunch, and he’s more of a floor spacer.

Oh, and ULM was also awful in the free throw battle. In fact, the Warhawks ranked dead last in Sun Belt play in rebound rate and free throw rate on both ends of the court:

It’s somewhat difficult to be bad at all of those things at once, but it largely speaks to a lack of athleticism across the roster – to draw contact, to battle on the boards, to stay in proper position and avoid contact defensively. The incoming backcourt transfers should boost that on the perimeter to some degree, but Thomas Howell and Luke Phillips will be on an island in the paint – and they don’t have the gargantuan Chris Efretui to help them anymore, either. It’s hard to see these areas not being a collective weakness once again.      

Bottom Line: The optimistic outlook for ULM involves the incoming guards sparking the offense, especially Jones with his size, and Harrison finding some increased measure of comfort this time around. Still, it’s almost inevitable that this team will struggle on the glass, and there’s little rim protection inside if the added perimeter athleticism cannot hold up against dribble penetration. The roster has more experience, and Richard has talked that up as a benefit to this year’s team, but whether that leads to a climb up the Sun Belt standings remains a valid question mark.