-Matt Cox

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Max Abmas, Jr., Oral Roberts
Coach of the Year: Billy Donlon, UMKC
Newcomer of the Year: Evan Gilyard, R Sr., UMKC
Freshman of the Year: Tevin Smith, Denver

Tier 1

1. South Dakota State

Key Returners: Everyone
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Zeke Mayo

Lineup:

Outlook: Coach contract extensions are handed out like mints and toothpicks these days. Still, props to the South Dakota State athletic department for showing a stern commitment to the man they call “Hendo”.

Inheriting a program on the heels of the Mike Daum golden era is the equivalent of signing up to coach the Chicago Bulls in 1999. No one normalizes the standard of achievement to new rosters. The same prior bar of success applies, and thus, the expectations monster is created.

That hasn’t bothered Henderson in the slightest. Despite facing major headwinds, Daum’s graduation notwithstanding, he’s done a bang-up job his first two years at the helm. Oral Roberts may have stolen the show in the springtime but there’s a strong case to be made that these Jackrabbits were the best the Summit had to offer last year.

To return to the mountaintop, a full season without COVID and with Noah Freidel would be a welcome start. Freidel opted to sit out the last seven games to prioritize mental health, a commendable decision that warrants nothing but support. If Freidel returns to even 75% of his peak form last year, the Jackbunnies will be in business. The fact that last year’s 2nd leading scorer has suddenly become a wildcard speaks volumes about the depth up and down the lineup.

For any outsiders, it’s worth highlighting the unorthodoxy of this roster makeup. Baylor Scheierman is a microcosm of this non-conventional personnel, a 6’6 point forward who just so happens to be one of SDSU’s most productive rebounders. ‘Crafty’ is the ultimate descriptor for Scheierman’s game, a slippery southpaw with a diversified skill set. Thanks to Scheierman’s double duty, Henderson doesn’t need a traditional point guard – Scheierman’s mastery of angles and pacing enable him to subtly knife through seams in the defense.

In fact, South Dakota State’s offense doesn’t require a prolific scoring guard, either, as seen in various other squads around the league (Max Abmas for ORU, A.J. Plitzuweit for South Dakota, etc.). Granted, Zeke Mayo could be a long-term solution to this void, but, for now, the Jackbunnies will be quite alright. This is where Doug Wilson, the centerpiece of SDSU’s offense, is the ultimate remedy. In late shot clock or late game ‘clutch’ situations, Hendo loves to go to Wilson in the mid post area. In general, whenever the Jackbunnies need a bucket, Wilson often delivers.

Of all 32 Division-I conferences, Wilson was wise to pick the Summit as his D-I playground, a league with a severe shortage of feared rim protectors. His explosiveness and quick leaping ability inside are too much to handle for any run-of-the-mill Summit forward, while his passing ability is the secret sauce in this offense at large.

Wilson and the Jackrabbits’ cavalry of 3-point snipers form a simple, yet deadly, symbiotic relationship: Wilson attracts attention on the interior while the threat of an impending 3-point barrage keeps defenses from ‘over-collapsing’. In terms of 3-point precision, only Baylor, the reigning national champs, were more accurate from bonus land last season, a scary proposition for Summit defenses heading into 2022.

The 3-point shot is a Summit staple and the Jackbunnies are the gold standard of long-range marksmen.The chart below shows the top-25 3-point shooting teams on a percentage basis from last year, juxtaposed with their 2021-22 projected returning minutes (courtesy of BartTorvik). The Summit housed three of the 25 best shooting teams in America but only the Jackbunnies return a substantial chunk of that shooting supply this year:

Wilson, fellow forward Matt Dentlinger and lefty Luke Appel are the only non-shooters on the roster. Scheierman and Freidel can dial it up from deep, as can Alex Arians (39% career 3PT%), David Wingett (36% career), Charlie Easley (43% last season) and Matt Mims (40% career). 

Now, to the vegetables section of the preview: yes, time to talk defense. This narrative will be regurgitated throughout the entire Summit preview but it’s necessary to re-hash each time for the ‘my team only’ readers. Contextualizing the caliber of Summit League defenses on the national scale, versus within the league itself usually paints two different pictures. Such was the case with the Jackrabbits last year. SDSU boasted a top-5 defense in conference play but ranked outside the top-200 nationally. 

At first glance, SDSU’s defensive *flaws* are a carbon copy of Oral Roberts’ issues. Much like the now departed Kevin Obanor, Wilson is a vacuum on the boards, but he’s not an intimidating scarecrow at the rim. On the perimeter, what the Jackbunnies boast in length, they lack in agility. Against top-flight competition, more explosive athletes will feast inside, but that shouldn’t be a major issue in league play. Wilson’s defensive mobility at the 5 will still be a useful deterrent, and SDSU should remain in the upper half of the Summit’s defensive hierarchy.

Discipline is the root of Hendo’s defense, which never falls prey to dumb fouls or rotational breakdowns. In essence, it says, “we won’t beat ourselves; you have to beat us.” A fierce rim protector would’ve been a prime free agent target this summer, but that would presumably come at a cost offensively. Tradeoffs, tradeoffs.

The defense could even trend into top-3 territory if last year’s adverse shooting variance swings back in their favor. Opponents hit nearly 80% from the charity stripe against SDSU, the highest clip in the country, and also canned a respectable 36% from long distance. However, don’t bank on this being a major needle mover, particularly the 3-point regression component.

Bottom Line: Don’t be seduced by the Oral Roberts hoopla. The Golden Eagles will be in the thick of the Summit title chase, but the smart money is on the Jackrabbits to seize the crown. Their floor is extremely high, propped up by the stability of both roster and coach, collectively. Injury risks do loom large, none bigger than Wilson, who’s been injury prone most of his career. While Dentlinger and Appel are underrated backups, Wilson is the bedrock of SDSU’s offense – in the off chance he misses significant time, SDSU will be looking over their shoulder in the Summit standings next March.

2. North Dakota State

Key Returners: Rocky Kreuser, Jarius Cook, Sam Griesel, Tyree Eady, Maleeck Harden-Hayes, Grant Nelson
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Andrew Kallman (D-II), Willie Guy (JUCO), Andrew Morgan 

Lineup:

Outlook: 72-all, 36 seconds remaining until the coronation of the Summit League champion. There it was, a trip to the NCAA Tournament, within arm’s reach…

A Max Abmas free throw and a timely stop was all that separated the Bison from one of the most improbable, insane, mind-blowing conference tournament comebacks ever. Down 25 points with 19 minutes remaining, the Bison could’ve easily waived the white flag. Well, Rocky Kreuser had other ideas. His 34-point sorcery revived the dead-and-buried Bison, fueling a 52-30 second half scoring run to pull even with the eventual NCAA Tournament Cinderella darlings.

I’ll stop there. That close-but-no-cigar, bittersweet ending to last year’s story is now ancient history. It’s a new dawn and a new day in Fargo, and the Bison get another crack at the fairytale ending they almost had. Kreuser, along with fellow vets Sam Griesel and Tyree Eady, got a taste of that sweet postseason nectar in 2019, but COVID ruined their chance at ‘seconds’ in 2020. And then last year, well, you get the picture…

Not to harp on cliché intangibles but this bunch should be hyper motivated heading into 2022, especially those three elder statesmen, Kreuser, Griesel and Eady. With all due respect to Griesel and Eady, Kreuser is the Bison’s backbone. From timid role player to assertive alpha, Kreuser’s grown up before our eyes over the last three seasons. Post ups, spot ups, on the break. It doesn’t matter where he is, Kreuser can score the basketball. He’s a sneaky terrific athlete as well, which plays well in Dave Richman’s more modern offensive structure:

Griesel, Eady and Jarius Cook are the epitome of a sound backcourt trio. There’s no flash or flair here whatsoever. The way they play through and off one another in the backcourt is surgical, all capable of doing damage from inside and out. Between the perimeter triumvirate and Kreuser, Richman has a sturdy four-pronged support base intact.

That leaves Maleeck Harden-Hayes and Grant Nelson as the two X-factors, who will split time at the second forward spot. They’re different players, but this contrast is exactly what Richman wants. By simply platooning them at the nominal 4 position next to Kreuser up front, Richman can pivot on a dime to counter or exploit any opposing matchups. Alternatively, he can trot out a supersized lineup with Harden-Hayes and Nelson together. That’s one imposing defensive wall to circumvent: Griesel (6’6), Eady (6’5), Harden-Hayes (6’7), Nelson (6’10) and Kreuser (6’10). At minimum, the Bison will own the glass yet again – last year, NDSU finished tops in the Summit in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate.

The sheer size up and down the roster is a major competitive advantage in the Summit landscape. Size often takes a back seat to shooting in this league, but Richman found a way to weaponize his competitive advantage without sacrificing skill. 

This was partly out of necessity, though. In the wake of Vinnie Shahid’s departure last summer, the Bison had no traditional point guard on the roster. Shahid was a wizard in pick-n-roll, an element the Bison had to live without last season. Richman countered with a more balanced offensive attack, while continuing to target size mismatches via the mid and low post.

This 3-year Synergy play style chart shows the evolution to a post Shahid world. Notice the sharp drop off in pick-n-roll usage last year, offset by a subtle rise in spot-up possessions:

The beautiful thing about Kreuser and Nelson is that they can both drill it from deep. So, even though the Bison were less 3-point reliant last year, the inside-out versatility of the Bison bigs gives Richman the best of both worlds: size and shooting.

A logjam for minutes prompted four players to seek greener pastures this summer, which helps brings clarity to the 2022 rotation. Richman won’t fret over their departures. There’s not a major drop off to the rising sophomore class (Grant Nelson, Boden Skunberg and Dezmond McKinney), the likely candidates to fill out the bottom of the rotation, while two experienced newcomers will see plenty of action right away. Willie Guy is an enticing JUCO pickup, who was anointed Iowa Community College Conference Player of the Year (12.5 PPG, 6.0 APG and 4.8 RPG). Division-II product Andrew Kallman could be another jack-of-all-trades piece, as Richman told Inforum earlier this offseason:

“Kallman will be a Swiss Army knife for us,” Richman said. “It’s a bonus year for him. He’ll come in and provide us depth and versatility and most important — championship level experience.”

Kallman and Kreuser are old pals from the AAU circuit, which put NDSU in the driver’s seat for his recruitment. That AJ Plitzuweit dude turned out to be pretty good at South Dakota, another former D-II transfer who set the Summit on fire last year – that’s not to say Kallman will replicate that but it’s an encouraging precedent nonetheless. 

Finally, Andrew Morgan, the most touted freshman in the conference, may be too talented to keep on the backburner this year. Heat Check CBB spotlighted Morgan as one of college basketball’s most underrated freshman heading in to 2022. It feels foolish not picking him to win freshman of the year, but his playing time could be impeded by Nelson and Harden-Hayes, especially if the latter stays healthy.

Bottom Line: North Dakota State is consistently one of the most balanced teams in the Summit. That devout commitment to defense has historically given the Bison a leg up on their competition, a condition which holds true looking in to the 2022 crystal ball. It’s a three-horse race for the Summit title and the Bison are undisputedly among that esteemed group.

3. Oral Roberts

Key Returners: Max Abmas, DeShang Weaver, Kareem Thompson, Carlos Jurgens, Francis Lacis
Key Losses: Kevin Obanor
Key Newcomers: Issac McBride (Vanderbilt), Trey Phipps (Oklahoma) 

Lineup: 

Outlook:

Me too, Frank. Me too…

Few things are more fun than watching Max Abmas pull up from the parking lot and single handedly rip Ohio State and Florida’s defense to shreds.

The general population saw Abmas go full on assassin, but this was not just some two-week flash in the pan. Abmas was one of college basketball’s elite offensive engines all year long and his stats back it up. Only Luka Garza and Vermont’s Ryan Davis matched Abmas efficiency on *high* usage last year, both of whom have an inherent advantage because of their position (big). The chart below from KenPom shows the nation’s most efficient players, as defined by O-Rating, grouped by usage levels – this specific snapshot is the highest usage group, of which Abmas lies right at the top:

Tucked within the equation for individual offensive rating is turnover rate. Most of the nation watched Abmas cough up the rock 10 times against Florida and Arkansas but it’s important to underscore how out of character that was. For starters, five turnovers in ORU’s breakneck tempo is nothing to scoff at, especially with how much Abmas handles the rock. Coming into to the tournament, Abmas had turned it over five or more times only twice all season, a testament to how much he values the basketball.

Way before he became the toast of the NCAA Tournament, Abmas took a back seat to Deondre Burns and Emmanuel Nzekwesi on ORU’s 2020 offensive juggernaut – imagine that, Abmas as a glorified floor spacer. In fairness, he was far more important than that, even as a rookie.

Abmas’ rapid evolution was a big reason Paul Mills completely overhauled his offense, as detailed by Jim in last year’s Summit preview. Well, it’s safe to say Abmas has arrived now: 

Elijah Lufile was a critical cog on that 2020 team, a full-time starter who returns after sitting idle all last year with a heart condition. The Canadian space eater looks like a black sheep on this perimeter-oriented roster, but he glides ably for his size. Lufile will likely be the linchpin of a thin, uncertain frontcourt that now bears a big burden defensively.

Now, time to pour some cold water on the Oral Bob 2022 hype train. There’s no secret the Golden Eagles have had issues, to put it lightly, on the defensive end of the floor. Consider who they’ll be going toe-to-toe with at the top of the Summit standings: South Dakota State and North Dakota State, two teams who have each fielded better defensive units in each of the last two years.

Kevin Obanor was a partial asset in this regard, mostly as a rebounder, less so as a defensive stopper. Hybrid wing / forward DeShang Weaver is back, a plus athlete with enviable length, but is he the stopgap needed defensively? I adore Weaver’s shot making ability – offensively, he’s on the precipice of a breakout year – but he may have to slide up into Obanor’s stead at the 4. Both Weaver and Lufile will have to step out of their comfort zones, particularly Weaver, who will be tasked with checking bigger bodies up front more frequently. The advanced on / off numbers are kind to Weaver, so I remain cautiously optimistic that the Weaver / Lufile twofer can bolster the backend.

The spotlight also shifts to Francis Lacis, a terrific defender and useful utility tool on offense. He was a big reason why ORU, shockingly, boasted the highest block rate in the league last year – though, that’s sort of like being the fastest car in a go-kart race. Still, context is king. ORU’s defense will likely be an eyesore by national standards, but in the offensive minded Summit, it should hold up just fine. Rounding out the frontcourt will be Nate Clover, who was effective in mop up time last year, along with Sir Isaac Herron and Luka Tekavcic.

The outer shell of ORU’s defense could also be in store for an upgrade. Carlos Jurgens is regarded as a plus defender and Oklahoma arrival Trey Phipps is cut from that same cloth. Swiss-army knife wing Kareem Thompson also returns, another legitimate breakout candidate.  

All things considered, ORU’s defense should still be middle of the road by Summit standards. But, even if the defense were to falter, the offense might be so good it doesn’t matter. Now’s probably a good time to mention that Issac McBride is coming to town, a former top-100 recruit who is still searching for a *home* after two quick cups of coffee at Vanderbilt and Kansas. His talents were overshadowed by pro-level prospects before, but he should flourish as Abmas’ running mate. He’ll help alleviate Abmas’ ball handling and offensive initiation burdens. 

Bottom Line: Did Oral Roberts simply catch lightning in a bottle last year? Or did we witness the infancy stage of Paul Mills’ ascension to coaching stardom? While his former boss (Scott Drew) is doing the unthinkable at Baylor, Mills’ stock arrow is also pointing right at the sky. Both Drew and Mills have made wholesale changes to their old ways, a credit to their innovative thinking and adaptability.

With Abmas at the wheel, and two established power conference down transfers, plus *enough* of last year’s nucleus, filling in the gaps, ORU is unquestionably one of the three teams to beat. It all comes down to defense, but, as cited above, the outlook on this end is not nearly as dire as many have made it out to be.

Tier 2

4. Kansas City

Key Returners: Marvin Nesbitt, Arkel Lamar, Josiah Allick
Key Losses: Brandon McKissic, Zion Williams, Demarius Pitts, Franck Kamgain
Key Newcomers: Evan Gilyard (New Mexico St.), Anderson Kopp (Lamar) 

Lineup:

Outlook: Pardon the unflattering comparison, but the Roos are the cockroaches of the Summit. Dogged defenders with an unflappable intensity, this group was impossible to put away last year.

The back-to-back series against North Dakota State in late January sticks out in memory. The Kangaroos were the walking wounded when the first place Bison came to town. Down Josiah Allick, Brandon McKissic and Demarius Pitts (for game 1 only), the Roos, somehow, escaped with a series split. Even in the opening leg loss, the Roos never trailed by more than four points, up until the waning seconds. 

That inspiring 80-minute span is Billy Donlon basketball in a nutshell. No matter how skill-deprived – or health-deprived, as was the case last year – the Roos are a guarantee to be a thorn in the Summit’s side.

Donlon had to pull rabbit after rabbit out of his hat last year to mitigate a roster riddled with injuries. From a zoomed-out view, KenPom’s Minutes Matrix page looks like a frozen game of Tetris:

The injuries did a number on KC’s offense, but the defense will always be Donlon’s security blanket. He demands 40 minutes, or more, of high intensity defensive pressure all over the floor night in and night out. 

As he encroaches on year 3 of his tenure in Kansas City, Donlon’s fingerprints are all over this refurbished roster. The prerequisite DNA for a typical Donlon player? Tenacious defender with multi-positional versatility.

Marvin Nesbitt and Arkel Lamar are the exemplars of this prototype. It’s hard to slap positional labels on them, but Lamar is more of an undersized forward while Nesbitt is an oversized guard / wing (he’s technically a forward but his mobility off the dribble is guard-esque). Nesbitt can flat out sky, as can Lamar, and their switchability is paramount in Donlon’s swarming defensive front.  Injuries loom large with both, however, especially with how taxing their two-way responsibilities are.

The presumed second-in-command to Nesbitt in the backcourt, Evan Gilyard, adds another ballhawk to the mix, a former UTEP and New Mexico State perimeter sparkplug. Gilyard doesn’t quite meet Donlon’s standard height requirement, but his cat-like quickness will surely come in handy defensively. On the other end, Gilyard will be a boon to an offense that looked cramped and clustered last season. Brandon McKissic carried a heavy load in this domain last season, so Gilyard’s arrival is well timed. 

Anderson Kopp checks that same versatility box, with bonus D-I experience under his belt. Kopp lost his spot in the starting rotation last year at Lamar, but he’s wired with that streaky scorer gene. I’d argue he’s best deployed as an off-the-bench microwave, but we’ll see how Donlon utilizes him in concert with promising incumbent Jacob Johnson and JUCO standout Shemarri Allen. Allen was the super glue for the NJCAA National Runner Up Cowley Community College squad last season. He stuffed the stat sheet to the tune of 11 PPG / 5 RPG / 3APG, evidence of his limitless versatility – I’d be stunned if Donlon doesn’t find immediate use for his services.

If Hidde Roessink’s knees would hold up, the Roos could have themselves a dangerous stretch 4. Once a touted prospect on the international circuit, Donlon bought low on Roessink at Oklahoma State, but lightning struck the Dutchman’s knees again, ending his season just four games into the 2020-21 campaign. Caden Boser is another inverse big at Donlon’s disposal, who attempted 32 triples to just two 2s (and zero free throws).  

If Josiah Allick continues to hone his jumper, he may be the renaissance player Donlon needs. Allick already has an All-Conference plaque on his wall and is barely scratching the surface of his potential. He’s a live athlete with a confident handle, which allows him to slither his way into the lane from the perimeter against slower defenders. The clip below shows Allick in his element:

The concern for Allick is his teammates, who must step up and knock down perimeter shots at a respectable clip. This especially rings true in the wake of McKissic’s departure, the Roos’ best long-range sniper on both volume and percentage last year.

The Summit’s stingiest defensive unit last season figures to be impenetrable once again but there’s a minor worry on this end as well. Donlon’s maniacal, in-your-face defensive aggression can manifest in ‘foul-a-thons’. In the sweet shooting Summit, gifting your opponent free trips to the charity stripe is a death sentence. Consider this: since 2014, the Summit’s conference-wide free throw percentage has ranked first or second every single year.

The Roos’ foul rate eclipsed 55% last year, by far the highest in the country, which dwarfed the runner up by a whopping 5% margin (Alcorn State finished at 50%)! You must scroll back to 2017 to find any team that surpassed that arbitrary 55% watermark over the last five seasons.

That’s not to say Donlon should completely course correct and redesign his entire defensive approach. This is only a problem at the margins, but they’d be wise to defend more judiciously in 2022.

Bottom Line: I’m all in on Donlon and these gritty Roos but cracking the top-3 will be borderline impossible. The gap between Tier 1 and Tier 2 is substantial, while Tier 2 projects to be a crowded pack, separated by the thinnest of margins. This 4th place projection may come as a surprise, but Donlon’s defensive identity is the distinguishing factor amongst a highly flawed second tier.

5. South Dakota

Key Returners: Xavier Fuller, Kruz Perrott-Hunt, Tasos Kamateros
Key Losses: Stanley Umude
Key Newcomers: Erik Oliver (JUCO)

*** It’s a foregone conclusion that AJ Plitzuweit will miss the entire of the 2021-22 season. This is a devastating blow to one of the most prolific and complete guards in the mid-major landscape.

Lineup:

Outlook: Todd Lee deserves a ton of credit. Going 0-6 against North Dakota and North Dakota State won’t win any brownie points with the fan base, but last year was no easy assembly project. The Yotes waved goodbye to 80% of its scoring production from the year prior and Lee had to find Stanley Umude, his All-Everything forward, some new friends, and fast. 

Rather than surround him with a bunch of raw freshmen, Lee went digging through the JUCO and Division II wells. With Umude’s expiration date in a Coyote uniform fast approaching, Lee didn’t have the luxury of waiting for rookies to mature - generational talents of Umude’s caliber only come around once in a decade.

Luckily, Lee managed to find a few gems. Xavier Fuller was the prized JUCO acquisition of last year’s newcomer haul, and he did not disappoint in the slightest. In Lee’s offense, which is predicated on individual players reading and reacting, Fuller looked right at home. There’s very few ‘specialists’ on this roster, and Fuller is no exception. His length helps him score over smaller guards inside, a useful counter to his potent long distance jump shot – he’s a bonafide three-level scorer in the making. However, his defensive disruption is what got Lee’s attention, earning him serious burn throughout the brunt of conference play. Fuller may have overshadowed Mason Archambault, but don’t sleep on the Dakotan sharpshooter either. He does most of his damage from downtown, but he’ll punish hard closeouts via straight line drives as well.

Along with the new arrivals, Lee had three virtual unknowns sitting on ice last season, AJ Plitzuweit, Kruz Perrott-Hunt and Tasos Kamateros. The latter two played sparingly in 2020 but blossomed into indispensable parts in their second year in the program. Kamateros, an Athens native, was eased into the rotation last year but became a go-to option down the stretch. Perrott-Hunt, on the other hand, was a full-time starter from the jump. Once Perrott-Hunt fixed his jumper, he was off to the races. Physicality and versatility embody the New Zealander’s game, who wears many hats on both ends of the floor.

With all due respect to Perrott-Hunt and Kamateros, I’d say Lee hit the jackpot with Plitzuweit. The former D-II standout took the league by storm, etching his name on the 1st Team All-Summit squad. He wasn’t content simply being a Robin to Umude’s Batman. Plitzuweit asserted himself as a part-time alpha dog, arming the Yotes with one of the best 1-2 punches in the conference. 

Nothing was more unfair than losing Plitzuweit to a season ending knee injury on the doorstep of the Summit League tournament last season. Who knows what kind of run the Yotes could’ve made with ‘the Plitzuweit-zer’ in the fold. Lee told Last Word on Sports that he hopes Plitzuweit can return to action by the start of the 2022-23 season.

Could Erik Oliver put on the Plitzuweit cape and be the hero the Yotes need? His resume certainly exudes confidence. The reigning NJCAA Honorable Mention All-American poured in 20 points a game at Laramie County, where he canned 40% of his trey balls. He won’t have the beneficial sit out year like Plitz did but he’s too gifted to keep on the backburner, especially with such a large void in scoring.

In summary, replacing Umude and Plitzuweit’s production will come by committee. It’s not an unreasonable ask for some of these former reserves. During last year’s 9-game win streak, the Yotes saw a few of these role players step into the limelight – Kamateros, who was finally cleared by the NCAA midway through December, is a prime example.

Still, they’ll need more from guys like Brady Heiman and Boogie Anderson, two useful pieces that were afterthoughts last season. Heiman simply hasn’t panned out as the power conference gamechanger many hoped, while Anderson, according to Blue Ribbon, was essentially locked in a COVID contained jail cell last year - according to Lee, he spent over two months in quarantine! Nikola Zizic is another wide range of outcomes unknown, a fast riser who had his growth stunted by an injury midway through the year.

Bottom Line: Craig Smith got the Yotes’ program back on track and Todd Lee appears to be sustaining it. Standards are high in the Dakotas, especially in Vermilion, after dominating the D-II landscape for so many years predating the D-I promotion. South Dakota has been in the majors for over a decade now, with a big fat goose egg in the NCAA Tournament appearance column. It’s tempting to think what the 2022-23 season could hold, assuming Plitzuweit’s recovery goes as planned and the rest of the roster core stays put, but all is not lost this year, either.

6. Western Illinois

Key Returners: Colton Sandage, Will Carius, Tamell Pearson, Cam Burrell, Ramean Hinton
Key Losses: Rod Johnson
Key Newcomers: Trenton Massner (Northwestern State), George Dixon (Eastern Illinois), Quinlan Bennett (Lamar), Luka Barisic (UTSA) 

Lineup:

Outlook: Is it just me or is everyone putting their chips in on Rob Jeter’s retooled Leathernecks? Declaring Western Illinois this year’s Summit dark horse is certainly in vogue, and for good reason. No team experienced a more emphatic ‘come-to-Jesus’ moment than the Leathernecks. At first, Jeter’s young band of misfits looked lost in the wilderness. Then, in February, it struck. After losing their first seven league games, WIU rattled off five straight wins, clawing their way back into Summit standings relevance. 

Given the optimism is largely rooted in that late season resurrection, let’s peel back the onions of what transpired during that span. It’d be convenient to omit the fact that four of those five wins came at the hands of Denver and Omaha, both of whom had effectively waived the white flag at that point in the year. Still, Jeter and company almost upended Oral Roberts in leg 1 of the regular season series finale, a resounding effort that proved the preceding win streak was not a farce. 

That’s also when the league officially took notice of Colton Sandage, who poured in 32 points in a losing effort – ultimately, he was outdone by Max Abmas’ 40-burger (Abmas is good, folks). Add Sandage’s name to the long list of overshadowed JUCO recruits hailing from powerhouse programs. A Vincennes product, Sandage turned out to be the missing link in WIU’s offense. Jeter finally detected he had something special brewing in Sandage and ultimately promoted him to full-time starter at point. Sandage’s aggregate 2021 statistics are highly misleading – it was truly a tale of two seasons:

Cam Burrell and Ramean Hinton also hit their stride during the February rebound. Collectively, Burrell and Hinton were light years more efficient and productive than Rod Johnson. Johnson, the only notable loss from last year, started the season as the Leathernecks’ default wing option.

Burrell and Hinton would be foolish to rest on their laurels, though. The prominent roles they earned last year are far from guaranteed this season, as a crowded queue of transfers is chomping at the bit for playing time.

Trenton Massner, George Dixon and Quinlan Bennett are the notables, all of whom see action to various degrees. Massner and Bennett both produced in the Southland, so this subtle step up in competition should be manageable. Massner can toggle back and forth between point and shooting guard, a malleable complement to Sandage on offense. Bennett and Dixon profile as brawny power wings who will underpin last year’s shaky defensive unit. Incumbent JJ Flores is also lurking after only seeing action in two games last year. Some had Flores penciled in as a potential starter last year (read: us), a former JUCO teammate of Burrell’s and Adam Anhold. 

Up front, Will Carius returning for his bonus year fundamentally shifts the paradigm of WIU’s 2022 outlook. He was an instant revelation as a combo forward in Jeter’s system last year, showing off his sharpshooting and elastic leaping abilities. In terms of collegiate experience, Carius’ long and windy journey to Division I is inspiring – he won’t be taking anything for granted in his last run. Luka Barisic lacks Carius’ explosiveness and skillset, but he can drill it from deep, too – he’ll be a serviceable stand in for Carius as needed. 

Then there’s Tamell Pearson. Think of Pearson as the ‘thunder’ to Sandage and Carius’ ‘lightning’, whomever you prefer in that complementary analogy. Pearson was a lauded recruit coming out of Chicago – I remember being bullish on him coming into UAB – so, naturally, I was warped into thinking he’d soon be a mid-major star. He showed brief flashes of that tantalizing potential last year, but here’s the hard truth: WIU’s quiet surge in February coincided with Pearson’s role diminishing. At 6’10 230 pounds, Pearson must convert better than 53% of his looks at the rim (stat per hoop-math.com) and finished the year with an ugly 41.5% effective field goal percentage (Summit play). Defensively, though, his presence is invaluable (also, he did improve his free throw shooting late in the year).

Bottom Line: One must block out the win-loss imbalance during the December and January chapters, as a gauntlet of a schedule took a toll on a team still in search of an identity. While the schedule softening aided the Leathernecks’ encouraging finish, Jeter pushed the right buttons and found key building blocks for year two. The newcomers aren’t world-beaters, but they’ll add depth and plug niche needs.

7. Omaha

Key Returners: LaMel Robinson, Wanjang Tut, Marco Smith, Nick Ferrarini, Sam’I Roe
Key Losses: Matt Pile, Marlon Ruffin, Zach Thornhill, Ayo Akinwole
Key Newcomers: Akol Arop (Nebraska), Isaiah Poor Bear-Chandler (Wichita State), Nick Ferranini (D-II), Felix Lemetti (JUCO), Frankie Fidler 

Lineup: 

Outlook: Woof, it was a rough go of it for the Mavs last year. February 19th marked their first league win of the season, which snapped a 10-game conference losing streak and first outright win since December 5th. The circumstances were rather dire for Derrin Hansen – last year’s failures warrant a courtesy COVID-excuse card.

According to Nick Handley’s podcast, there was a point in February where the Mavs had amassed more COVID practice cancellations than actual practice days. Hansen, flying by the seat of his pants, tried to push any button he could find. He admitted he made too many tactical adjustments, including a deliberate decision to play slower in response to COVID absences and a roster that tilted forward-heavy. To be clear, “playing slower” is all relative to Hansen’s track record. Even though he did technically play at a faster pace than the two prior years, he wants to rekindle the blistering speed that characterized his earlier teams in Omaha.  

A big reason Hansen is eyeing a return to the fast lane is a reconfigured personnel makeup, specifically on the wing and up front. Hansen placed a premium on speed and agility in filling key frontline voids.

Wichita State defector and Omaha native Isaiah Poor Bear-Chandler may look like a thunderous big, but he’s deceptively mobile in space and flushed with skill on the offensive end. Like Poor Bear-Chandler, Akol Arop is another homegrown talent who will look to find his groove back in the friendly confines of Omaha. Hansen is giddy over Arop’s length and agility, which should fit like a glove on the wing.

Hansen hopes to see a re-run of Wanjang Tut’s 2020 prolific campaign, as the skilled forward was a shell of himself last year. The Mavericks’ only proven commodity up front saw his stats dip across the board thanks to a nagging knee injury.

It all comes back to the guards, the impetus of the Mavs’ high octane scoring attack. Marco Smith was another injury victim last year, regressing in all facets due to physical limitations. Shooting is a prerequisite for effective guards in Hansen’s system – without the secondary threat, defenders can sag off and play drive. Sam'i Roe flunked that test in his first full D-I season last year. His athleticism and defensive activity mitigate those limitations to some degree, but if he’s to play a key role in 2022, finding an outside jumper is top priority.

It’s fair to say this perimeter corps projects as a watered-down version to the Ayo Akinwole, Zach Thornhill, KJ Robinson and JT Gibson led units in 2019 and 2020, but La’Mel Robinson looks like the front man-in-training for the next band of great Maverick guards. Hansen wisely redshirted him initially, letting him be an understudy to the Akinwole / Thornhill / Robinson / Gibson foursome. He’s a dazzling driver and acrobatic finisher around the rim. It’s amazing how productive he was without an established jumpshot – most of the time, defenses knew he was going to drive it down their throat but still couldn’t stop it.

In both clips below, Robinson’s defender is a good three feet off of him when he starts his motion – it isn’t enough, apparently.

As fun as Robinson is, his shot is still a work in progress. Lauded rookie Frankie Fidler and JUCO import Felix Lemetti could emerge as indispensable floor spacers, while Nick Ferrarini is flying under the radar after eligibility restrictions delayed his debut a year ago. Kyle Luedtke eclipsed double digits in points in each of his final two games last year, one of the few returners with a ‘shooter’ reputation. Ferrarini and Fidler are the keys here. The former will ride perimeter shotgun, flanking Robinson in the backcourt, while the latter will plug-n-play at the 3 or 4. He’s a bonafide bucket with every shot in the bag:

Bottom Line: I appreciate Hansen’s candidness in his self-assessment of last year’s dreadful season. The accountability is refreshing, and the fact that he’s not so far removed from a 20-win, 2nd place Summit finish earns him a partial hall pass. That said, in a system that places a premium on speed and interchangeability, a dearth of shooting – which enables proper floor spacing – can cripple your offense. This year, without an interior meal ticket like Pile inside, the Mavs need a rock to emerge on the perimeter.

8. North Dakota

Key Returners: Caleb Nero, Ethan Igbanugo, Bentiu Panoam, Mitchell Sueker
Key Losses: Filip Rebraca, Tyree Ihenacho, Seybian Sims
Key Newcomers: Brendan Howard (D-II), Tsotne Tsartsidze (JUCO), A'Jahni Levias (JUCO), Paul Bruns 

Lineup: 

Outlook: A quick progress report on Paul Sather’s rebuilding project.

From my naive vantage point, North Dakota appears to be going in the wrong direction. The analytics are starting to tell a tale of regression:

(Narrator: Relax, Matt, it’s been two years.)

Big picture, keeping pace with the top dogs in this league is a grind. Like so many mid major programs across the country, Sather’s seen the transfer avalanche puncture hole after hole in his roster. 

Last year was rough for all the obvious reasons, but De'Sean Allen-Eikens’ injury was a gut punch to the Hawks’ offense. That stripped UND of a premier, multi-positional scoring talent, leaving a relatively inexperienced and unproven backcourt to carry the torch. That’s not all. Filip Rebraca is gone, too, which leaves a lot on the returners and newcomers’ plates.

As poorly as the Fighting Hawks played in the non-conference, they showed some scrap in league play, crossing the finish line in with a respectable 8-8 record. Bentiu ‘Deuce’ Panoam is one the incumbents riding high off that strong finish. The ultimate X-factor, Panoam replaced former Weber import and solid 6th man Caleb Nero in the starting lineup about midway through January, and shortly cemented himself as UND’s most efficient scoring option. He went off in the Valentine’s Day weekend series sweep over South Dakota, the Summit’s first place team at the time. If Panoam can stay out of trainer’s room, 2022 might mark the delayed breakout Sather’s been waiting for. Sather calls him a lightning rod of energy and it’s easy to see why.

Panoam and Nero get the keys to the kingdom after last year’s Summit Rookie of the Year, Tyree Ihenacho, left town. Combo guard Ethan Igbanugo could also lend a hand, but his long-range sniping is better served off the ball.

Outside help parachutes in from nearby comprised of two JUCOs, one D-II transfer and a few freshmen. The three non-rookies, along with rookie Paul Bruns, are most likely to be key contributors right away: 

• College of Southern Idaho product Tsotne Tsartsidze is the crown jewel of the bunch. His former coach Jeff Reinert, who’s nurtured many premier talents through the CSI program, had high praise for Tsartsidze, who projects as a serviceable replacement to Rebraca.

"I think North Dakota got a diamond," Reinert said. "He can play inside and outside and has a great skill set. He's a tough kid. He's a good one."

• A'Jahni Levias is another JUCO standout who had no issue transitioning from high school to the JUCO ranks. He was the center of Central Wyoming’s universe from day 1, pacing the Rustlers (elite mascot) in scoring (18), rebounding (8) and field goal percentage (52%) while playing only 21.4 minutes per game.

• D-II transfers seem to be the flavor of the month in the Summit, and NoDak secured one of their own in Brendan Howard. Despite standing 6’6, Howard’s a punishing power forward with an expanding jump shot.

• There’s serious buzz surrounding incoming Bruns, a sturdy 6’4 southpaw with an endless array of moves in his scoring repertoire – he could be a household name in this league down the road.

Stylistically, Sather seems to be doing all the right things to survive in the Summit. Defensively, he stresses the need to run shooters off the line, a clip the NoDaks have ranked in the top-30 nationally the last two years. Unfortunately, the few open looks opponents did get off in time usually found the bottom of the net (UND’s opponent 3-point percentage was the highest in the league, 40.9%). Presumably, a few more shots will draw iron this year and naturally buoy NoDak’s defensive efficiency in the right direction.

Inside, questions abound in the face of Rebraca’s exodus. Rebraca was never going to win any high jump contests, but his size and savviness were sufficient to anchor the back of the Hawks’ defense. Incumbent reserve Mitchell Sueker mirrors that approach and the infusion of Tsartsidze should aid in this department as well.

Bottom Line: The local fan forums seem hellbent on anointing their beloved Fighting Hawks an upper half Summit squad. It’s certainly possible – the race for 4th and 5th is wide open, with few bulletproof options below the top-3 – but it’s a bold claim to make without having a good pulse on the newcomers.

9. Denver

Key Returners: Tristan Green, Taelyr Gatlin, JaVonni Bickham
Key Losses: Jase Townsend, Robert Jones, Sam Hines
Key Newcomers: KJ Hunt (Morehead State), Payton Moore (Rice), Michael Henn (Portland), Coban Porter, Tevin Smith (JUCO), Jordan Johnson (JUCO), Touko Tainamo 

Lineup: 

Outlook: It should have been the perfect pairing between Billups—a Denver native, Denver U alum and younger brother of former Colorado basketball star Chauncey Billups—and DU basketball. In the end, it just wasn’t to be. After a dismal 7-39 conference record over the last three seasons, a move was certainly needed.

This a serious fixer-upper for new head honcho Jeff Wulbrun. Wulbrun brings three decades of coaching experience to the Mile High city, including 21 years at the college level. He recently wrapped up his fifth season at Stanford, serving the first two as an assistant before being named the associate head coach of the Cardinal ahead of the 2018–19 campaign. During his time in Palo Alto, Wulbrun spearheaded multiple nationally ranked recruiting efforts, securing top-10 recruiting classes in both 2017 and 2020, and top-20 classes in 2018 and 2021.

All I can glean from off-season interviews is that Wulbrun is HIGH on integrity. So that’s nice. Stylistically, he kept his cards close to the vest but known associates include Rob Ehsan and Jerod Haase and both serve as good proxies for what to expect with the X’s and O’s. That lineage traces back to Roy Williams at North Carolina, but neither Ehsan nor Haase have been devout followers of Williams’ playbook. Haase, specifically, has woven in modern concepts to his offense since arriving at Stanford, just as Wulbrun will likely do here.

The one tactical area Wulbrun did tip his hand on was lineup construction. He told Blue Ribbon he loves to play 5-out, with one or two able shooters at forward. Two lanky gunners, Michael Henn and Touko Tainamo, fit that description. Henn’s coming off a year in which he canned 40% of his threes as Portland’s quasi center and was productive at Cal Baptist before that. However, defense is not Henn’s forte – while not all Henn’s fault, the Pilots were anemic at defending the rim last season.

It’s easy to group Tainamo in that convenient ‘Euro big’ bucket but the Finland native has some tenacity in his veins. He was the captain of the Finnish U20 national team, a mobile, skilled big with soft touch inside and out:

Though Wulbrun downplayed the expected impact of two more international arrivals right away, look for Pedro Lopez-Sanvicente and Felipe Motta to harvest in a year or two. One or both may be in the mix for immediate run, but Tristan Green, one of the few remnants from the Billups regime, opted to hang around. With Henn, Tainamo and Green intact – Green’s a serviceable garbage man up front – Wulbrun may treat Lopez-Sanvicente and Motta as ‘draft-and-stash’ projects, and groom them for the long term:

That’s just the tip of the iceberg. Jase Townsend and Robert Jones, DU’s 2021 bookends, are both gone, as is Sam Hines, forcing Wulbrun to engage a wall-to-wall housecleaning. Trying to play catch up in the first recruiting cycle is never easy, but Wulbrun did a bang up job, particularly in the backcourt. 

Smartly, he nabbed two stabilizers in KJ Hunt and Payton Moore, two adequate mid major talents. Chief among their responsibilities will be ushering in Wulbrun’s assortment of rookies to the Division-I level. Hunt will be the table setter after doing nothing but win last year at Morehead. He’s a cerebral floor general and will keep the other young guards from being exposed right out of the gate.

Real excitement lies with the diaper dandies, though, and none is more recognizable than Coban Porter, baby brother of NBA star Michael Porter. While not quite the blue chipper his brother was, Porter’s inking sent shockwaves through the Denver news wire. Per Wulbrun’s description, Coban’s game is remarkably similar to his brother’s:

“He’s an excellent 3-point shooter, can attack defenses off the bounce and is a willing passer. He greatly benefited from his prep school year, getting bigger and stronger,” Wulbrun told USA Today. “His frame and length will allow him to guard multiple positions for us defensively, and I love his competitiveness.”

However, don’t let Porter’s namesake overshadow Tevin Smith, the most gifted talent in this rookie batch. Locking up the highest ranked recruit in program history in year one is quite the statement by Wulbrun. He poached Smith from Cal State Fullerton, along with two assistants, to expedite his rebuilding efforts.

Jordan Johnson could be a steal as well, a JUCO product of Hines College, where he averaged 20 points and 7 assists a game. Hunt seems to have a vice grip on the starting point guard job but Johnson figures to be a key reserve at both the point and off the ball. 

Bottom Line: Wulbrun’s selling point is his ability to reel in talent. Long term, a boon of high caliber players will move the needle. For now, his prowess with the clipboard will be put under the microscope. Year 1 will be the ultimate litmus test: can Wulbrun do more with less?   

10. St. Thomas

Key Returners: Anders Nelson, Riley Miller, Parker Bjorklund
Key Losses: Burt Hedstrom, Ryan Lindberg
Key Newcomers: Courtney Brown (Milwaukee), Bennett Kwiecinski (Siena) 

Lineup:

Outlook: A warm Division-I welcome to the Tommies! Like a first round MLB draft pick on a fast track to the majors, St. Thomas leap frogged the D-II steppingstone, vaulting straight from D-III to D-I in the blink of an eye. 

Well, it wasn’t technically that easy…

As a CYA cop out, I hereby refer all readers to this insanely in-depth and fascinating piece by Pat Borzi of the MinnPost. It details a drama filled, topsy turvy path to the big boy playground. Ultimately, Summit League commissioner Tom Douple was the angel whose wings lifted St. Thomas to the holy land of D-I.

Head coach Johnny Tauer has compiled a dazzling display of accolades during his Division-III dominance. He’s the third all-time winningest coach in D-III and has been named the National Coach of the Year three separate times since 2011. Of all potential destinations, the Summit League feels like the perfect landing spot for Tauer to test his hand against the cream of the crop. You won’t find too many pro caliber athletes in this conference, which should mitigate some of the Tommies’ athletic deficiencies – though, this gap may look sizable against stiffer non-conference opponents.

In terms of style, I’ll toss the mic to one half of the Tommies’ two-pronged backcourt, Riley Miller:

“Obviously, the game plan will be a little different to cater to personnel, but the way we play on offense and the pace we want to play at is all pretty similar going game to game,” Miller told the media this spring.

Let’s start by underscoring ‘pace’. The Tommies look like your typical high school or AAU juggernaut, playing at a breakneck pace from start to finish with waves of reinforcements. Depth is critical in this regard, so upwards of 10 players will see significant burn on a nightly basis. They will look to press off their own makes and will hunt early offense off opposing misses, if the advantage is there – if not, they’ll seamlessly settle in to their set half court stuff, as detailed in this exquisite breakdown, courtesy of Basketball Immersion. This dated video of last year’s MIAC Playoff Championship gives a sneak peek at the different stylistic dimensions:

The offense may be further refined by one of the sharpest offensive gurus in college basketball, Mike Maker, the former head coach at Marist. His experience extends far beyond that brief stint in Poughkeepsie – he has over three decades of service under his belt, including two notable mentorships under John Beilein and Dana Altman. 

Evaluating, and then projecting, D-III personnel in this context is tricky, but Anders Nelson and Riley Miller are ready for the leap. They look identical at times on the floor, both able drivers, passers and shooters from the point of attack. Miller’s a little bigger at 6’3 and defers to Nelson out in the open floor, but he can shoot the crap out of it – in St. Thomas’ shortened 7-game season last year, Miller hit 32-of-52 from long distance, an incomparable 62% hit rate on a decent volume. He also turned it over twice, total, during that span – his KenPom page may light up like a Christmas tree this year.

Nelson is the ticker, a smooth operator and crafty creator, while Burt Hedstrom, Will Engels and Ryan Lindberg round out the perimeter corps. Lindberg is the unsung hero of this group, who brings a flawless floor game to the mix as both a facilitator and shooter.

Courtney Brown, one of three D-I transfers, could be instrumental to the Tommies’ upward transition. Most of last year’s core returns but Tauer badly needed an infusion of athleticism and physicality, particularly in the frontline, where nifty bucket getter Parker Bjorklund will need some assistance.

Ok, enough about the process – what about the results? Pinpointing where new D-I teams will land is guesswork, but don’t be fooled by the recent success stories of Bellarmine and Merrimack. The difference between D-II and D-III is stark, which can be quantified by using Massey’s Composite Ratings.

The aggregate ranking tool gives a reasonable, albeit flawed, measure of how teams across different ‘leagues’ stack up. Last year, the Tommies finished 425th overall in this all-encompassing college basketball pool of teams, a slight uptick from 449th in 2020 and 512th in 2019 – since St. Thomas only played seven games last year, a multi-year sample helps get a gauge at how strong the program is at large.

For context, let’s bring Bellarmine back into the picture. They had a tremendous inaugural D-I campaign but were already punching near the D-I weight class before they arrived. In 2020, they ranked 289th in Massey’s composite ratings and climbed as high as 185th the year before that.

Perhaps Tarleton State or Dixie State are better comps. Tarleton State ranked 405th and 421st in 2019 and 2020, respectively, but remember, that was before Billy Gillespie arrived last season. Dixie checked in at 413th and 384th during the two-year span leading into last year’s D-I debut and wound up in the bottom-30 nationally in the reputable D-I analytic rankings.

Bottom Line: Being bearish on the Tommies is no fun but it’s important to distinguish St. Thomas from other recent D-I newcomers. The Tommies are doing the unthinkable, an unprecedented two division leap overnight. The element of surprise will work in their favor, but we’ll quickly see how drastic the talent gap is during early non-conference tune ups (though, the pre-Summit schedule is rather soft).