-Jim Root

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Douglas Wilson, Sr., South Dakota St.
Coach of the Year: Eric Henderson, South Dakota St.
Newcomer of the Year: Xavier Fuller, Jr., South Dakota
Freshman of the Year: Marcus Watson, Western Illinois

Tier 1

1. South Dakota State

Key Returners: Doug Wilson, Noah Friedel, Baylor Scheierman, Matt Dentlinger, David Wingett, Alex Arians, Matt Mims
Key Losses: Brandon Key
Key Newcomers: Luke Appel (JUCO), William Mfum

Lineup:

Outlook: Three-time Summit Player of the Year and 3,000-point scorer Mike Daum: gone. Coach TJ Otzelberger: off to UNLV. Twenty-PPG scorer David Jenkins Jr.: followed Otzelberger. Multi-year starters Skyler Flatten and Tevin King: also gone. Naturally, the result of all of that offseason turmoil was…a third straight conference title? It doesn’t really make sense on the surface, but new coach Eric “Hendo” Henderson (Otzelberger’s lead assistant) did a terrific job bringing in key new players, developing the ones he already had, and employing a system that perfectly fit the roster, allowing the Jackrabbits to continue their run of excellence atop the Summit standings.

SDSU ranked 46th nationally in KenPom’s AdjOE, including 3rd nationally in 2P%, as forward Douglas Wilson emerged as an unstoppable force after a dominant run in junior college. Wilson made it four straight years for a Jackrabbit to win league Player of the Year, and his ability to destroy one-on-one coverage in the post consistently put defenses in a bind: double him at the risk of leaving shooters open, or let him rack up points on his own? Wilson’s presence encouraged Hendo to play through the post a ton (6th-most nationally), and his intelligence on the block led to SDSU ranking in the 98th percentile in “Post-Ups Including Passes.” If you’re nationally elite at something, might as well do it a lot!

The curious part of the offense is that it was often not a four-out attack, as one might imagine with such a singularly talented post threat. Matt Dentlinger played alongside Wilson as a second big, a lineup combination that was surprisingly effective for having two non-shooters on the court:

A big part of that was Dentlinger’s tremendous intelligence as a cutter. Back in high school when I masqueraded as a power forward, a basic tenet of our offense was to “cut to your buddy,” which meant that if one big man (our star center) had the ball on the block, the other big man (me) has to cut hard to the rim. This helps in two ways: it puts stress on the defense, often forcing perimeter defenders to help towards the basket and opening up shooters around the arc. And second (and more obviously), it leads to easy lay-ups for the cutter:

It was no coincidence that Dentlinger ranked in the 88th percentile nationally as a cutter, per Synergy, as the combination of his timing and the defensive attention paid to Wilson led to many “buddy-to-buddy” buckets. JUCO transfer Luke Appel, who was a Second Team All-American last year at the same JUCO (Kirkwood) where Wilson played, will ably fill any frontcourt minutes that fall by the wayside.

Of course, you do need perimeter threats to prevent defenses from sagging too far, and the Jackrabbits have a returning quadrumvirate that can do just that. Noah Freidel and David Wingett are outstanding shooters, and Wingett’s size allows him to defend forwards when Hendo does opt to play four-out. Alex Arians is more of a deferential wing, but the offense really clicked when Hendo made him the nominal point guard. He can score when needed (36% from deep) and adds a “grab-and-go” element on the defensive glass. Baylor Scheierman is the least conventional of the bunch, standing 6’6 with point guard skills but an underwhelming perimeter jumper. If he’s the worst offensive player on the floor, though, the Jackrabbits are in great shape. There’s depth here, as well, with Matt Mims being a spot up specialist and William Mfum, who enrolled for the spring semester last year and then redshirted, a more athletic and physical presence off the bench.

The Jackrabbits’ defense lags behind the devastating offense, but Hendo maintained Otzelberger’s conservative man-to-man style that packed the paint, avoided fouling, and challenged as many shots as possible. There’s downside risk on this end if foes make more of their threes (just 30.7% last year), but on the flip side, a lineup with Wilson, Dentlinger, Arians, Scheierman, and Wingett should be better on the defensive glass.

Bottom Line: With a nearly brand new (330th in minutes continuity) and exceedingly young (343rd in experience) roster, Henderson still managed to coax a nearly top-100 performance out of the Jackrabbits, and with nearly everyone back, South Dakota State is the clear favorite in the Summit once again, a status that has become quite familiar in recent years. Wilson alone makes the offense terrific, and the continued development of the guards around him could see the Jackrabbits vault into the top 30 nationally on that end. As long as the defense continues to be “not awful,” SDSU will be in line for its fourth NCAA Tournament appearance in six years – and possibly even its first win.

Tier 2

2. North Dakota State

Key Returners: Rocky Kreuser, Tyree Eady, Sam Griesel, Jaxon Knotek, Jairus Cook (injury)
Key Losses: Vinnie Shahid, Tyson Ward, Cameron Hunter (transfer), Jared Samuelson
Key Newcomers: Donald Carter III (JUCO), Boden Skunberg, Dezmond McKinney

Lineup:

Outlook: A third NCAA Tournament in six years fell by the COVID wayside, but Dave Richman has unquestionably continued the run of success that Tim Miles and Saul Phillips started upon NDSU’s arrival to Division I hoops back in 2005. With that terrific run of coaches, the Bison have gone 291-179 (61.9%) in the 15 years since rising to college basketball’s upper echelon, including a 133-81 (62.1%) record in Summit League games and earning five trips to the Big Dance. They’ll need every bit of that “program excellence” factor this year, though, as NDSU loses a huge chunk of its production from the back-to-back Summit Tournament champions.

The hit is especially hard on the perimeter, where Richman has to replace essentially every player responsible for handling the ball last year. Let’s put it this way: NDSU consistently runs a ton of pick-and-roll under Richman, and last year’s team finished 338 possessions via the PnR ball-handler. Of those, the returners were responsible for a paltry 17 (5%):

Cameron Hunter was primed to ascend into the alpha role, but he surprisingly opted to transfer to D-II Central Missouri (from the Kansas City area), leaving a black hole-esque void in the Bison backcourt.

To make matters worse, even Richman’s next-best option may not be ready for the start of the season.  Donald Carter III, a highly productive point guard at Scottsdale Community College, suffered a leg injury in mid-May and was expected to miss “18-24 weeks” (strange to frame that in weeks, no?), which puts his recovery timeline right up against the new CBB calendar. After COVID took away the Bison’s chance to compete in the 2020 NCAA Tournament, the least it could do is buy their new point guard time to get healthy, right?

If he’s not able to go, NDSU may have to hand the keys to Dezmond McKinney, an all-state guard from Raytown, MO – just 25 miles from Hunter’s hometown outside KC. The freshman has the talent, athleticism, and competitive streak to succeed, but running the Bison’s offense right off the bat is a tough ask. Jarius Cook, who missed last year, and Sam Griesel can do some secondary ball-handling, but neither is a natural creator. The team’s most prized recruit, Boden Skunberg, is another secondary candidate, but he functions best when he can focus on what he does best: lighting up the scoreboard.

As a result, Richman will rely on veterans Rocky Kreuser and Tyree Eady to stabilize the offense. Kreuser is a three-year starter as a stretch five, capable of opening up the court with his pick-and-pop talents, but we love him most for clinching a “First to 15” bet via a dunk against Zion’s #1-ranked Duke squad in 2019. Eady is a big wing who can attack off the bounce, a longstanding tradition in Richman’s spread offense, and he may also be asked to target mismatches in the post, much like Tyson Ward did last season. Griesel, Skunberg, Cook, Jaxon Knotek, and Maleeck Harden-Hayes give the Bison plenty of wing depth, while Tyler Witz and Odell Wilson IV will battle for minutes behind Kreuser.

On the other end, the Bison are a pack line team, squeezing the paint and forcing foes to hit jumpers while dominating the defensive glass. Kreuser is a terrific anchor in this regard, although losing Ward’s ability to grab-and-go off a defensive board will hurt. Richman smartly recognizes the value of shot selection, placing an emphasis on running opponents off the three-point line and forcing them into a high rate of mid-range attempts. Coupled with the offense’s similar acknowledgement of the value of 3 > 2, the Bison establish an advantage right from the jump simply based on prudent shot distribution.

Bottom Line: The Bison face a wide range of outcomes this year thanks to the uncertainty in the backcourt. If Carter never gets fully healthy, McKinney has the typical freshman struggles, and no one emerges as a primary pick-and-roll option, it will serve as road spikes in the team’s tires, limiting an offense that has traditionally been a smooth-driving asset under Richman. The defense should be fine with Kreuser and Witz eating the glass and the scheme forcing tough jump shots, but the ceiling is always capped by the team’s inability to force any turnovers. Places 2 through 7 in the Summit could realistically finish in any order, but I’m trusting Richman to keep the Bison in the thick of the race.

3. South Dakota

Key Returners: Stanley Umude, Ty Chisom, Hunter Goodrick
Key Losses: Tyler Hagedorn, Tyler Peterson, Triston Simpson, Cody Kelley, Brandon Armstrong
Key Newcomers: Brady Heiman (Nebraska), Xavier Fuller (JUCO), AJ Plitzuweit (D-II), Mason Archambault (JUCO), Boogie Anderson (JUCO), Kanon Koster (D-II), Nikola Zizic, D.J. Dial (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Hiding in Vermillion, South Dakota, was one of college hoops’ best-kept secrets last season: the South Dakota offense, a merciless bastion of efficiency thanks to a veteran lineup and an intricate motion system. The Coyotes ranked in the top 20 nationally in three of the Four Factors, only ignoring offensive rebounding, and they finished 4th in 3P%. Unfortunately, the defense was as awful as the offense was great: USD had the 10th-widest divide between AdjOE and AdjDE in the country last year, evidencing how unbalanced the Coyotes were. Coach Todd Lee has a ton of new faces with which to correct those defensive errors, but that may be a tough ask in a COVID-impacted offseason, so Lee may instead focus on maintaining the team’s excellence on the offensive end.

The combination of ranking 4th in experience and 336th in bench minutes last year means Lee has to replace a ton of production, with four starters and a key reserve all graduating this offseason. Continuity is at a premium in Lee’s scheme, as the cuts and reads become significantly easier with practice. It also helps to have big men that can space the floor, and graduated center Tyler Hagedorn led the entire country in 3P% last year (51.5%). The Coyotes won’t have that luxury this year, with Nebraska transfer Brady Heiman taking over in the paint as a more traditional post player. Lee will put him in spots to succeed, though, allowing him to use his size and skill to overwhelm many Summit opponents. Plus, all-conference forward Stanley Umude is back as the lone returning starter, and he is a versatile matchup nightmare with his ability to score inside, attack off the bounce, or knock down open shots:

Even without Hagedorn’s shooting, Heiman and Umude should complement each other well up front.

Beyond Umude and Heiman, though, the question marks are in size 48 bold font. Two transfers, A.J. Plitzuweit from nearby Augustana University and Boogie Anderson from Scottsdale CC, are the leading candidates at point guard, though their differing games may lead to them playing simultaneously as well. Plitzuweit, the 2018 Mr. Basketball in South Dakota, is more of a shooter and pure scorer, while Anderson is a bigger slasher with strong court vision (did not even attempt a three last year). Plitzuweit has an edge after redshirting and learning the offense, but they could end up filling the roles of Cody Kelley and Triston Simpson, respectively. Kruz Perrott-Hunt and D.J. Dial could also factor into the rotation, though Perrott-Hunt was a disaster last year and Dial’s diminutive size wouldn’t exactly help quell the bleeding on defense.

Elsewhere in the backcourt, Lee has choices, but none of them are proven at this stage. Another Division II transfer, Kanon Koster, also sat out last year, giving him a headstart on the playbook, and he was also Heiman’s AAU teammate. Returners Perrott-Hunt and Ty Chisom dipped their toes in the D-I water last year, but the results left a lot to be desired, meaning JUCO transfers Xavier Fuller (Boogie’s teammate at Scottsdale CC) and Mason Archambault could barge their way into major minutes. Fuller is like a slightly smaller Umude, a multi-skilled wing who was mega-productive last year (22.7 PPG, 10.9 RPG). Archambault is mostly a shooter, but a very good one: he buried 45.8% of his 155 triples last season. Koster, Fuller, and Archambault offer more upside than the veterans, capable of spacing the floor and attacking the gaps created by Lee’s motion scheme.

The massive roster turnover could be a blessing in disguise for the defense, considering the departing core proved rather definitively that it could not consistently get stops. Heiman will be an upgrade over Hagedorn on this end, especially as a rim protector, and he, Umude, and sophomore forwards Hunter Goodrick and Tasos Kamateros should maintain the Coyotes’ stellar defensive rebounding (10th nationally in D-Reb rate). Lee’s man-to-man system inherently limits turnovers, but an influx of perimeter length and athleticism (Fuller and Anderson especially) could at least see USD improve on its 346th-place finish in forced turnover rate.

Bottom Line: COVID makes a massive roster overhaul a daunting task, and Lee only has one proven Summit veteran on which he can rely. Thankfully, Umude is a star, and the huge incoming class has plenty of potential to quickly fill the voids around him. USD will likely be worse on offense but better on defense, settling in as a more balanced squad in the middle of a competitive Summit pack.

4. Oral Roberts

Key Returners: Kevin Obanor, Max Abmas, DeShang Weaver (injury), Elijah Lufile
Key Losses: Emmanuel Nzekwesi, Deondre Burns, Sam Kearns, R.J. Fuqua
Key Newcomers: R.J. Glasper (D-II), Kareem Thompson (JUCO), Sheldon Stevens (JUCO), Nathan Clover

Lineup:

Outlook: After two middling 11-21 seasons to open his tenure in Tulsa, Paul Mills finally showed the improvement that the administration was banking on when it hired him off Scott Drew’s Baylor staff. The Golden Eagles won 17 games and finished above .500 in league play for the first time since 2015, improving an eye-popping 155 spots in KenPom’s end-of-year rankings (from 290th to 135th). The top two scorers are gone, but with a few rising young players displaying plenty of potential, ORU has as much chance as anyone else to be South Dakota State’s top competition this year.

Mills deserves real credit for his willingness to adjust his approach on both ends of the floor. Defensively, the Golden Eagles went away from the matchup zone he’d (unsuccessfully) used for much of his first two campaigns, going to a more aggressive man-to-man that actually made opponents uncomfortable and dictated what they did:

I mentioned that Mills comes from Baylor, and the similarities to Baylor’s shift are certainly not coincidental:

Both Baylor and Oral Roberts leapt multiple tiers with the stylistic change, and while some of it had to do with personnel (especially for the Bears), being more assertive and attack-minded certainly served each squad well.

The perimeter pressure will be keyed by newcomers R.J. Glasper and Jamie Bergens, two quick on-ball defenders who can take turns bothering the opposition’s point guard. One of those two will be joined in the starting backcourt by Max Abmas, and though he’s mostly known as a lights-out shooter, he adapted well to the defensive scheme. Lanky wing DeShang “DJ” Weaver is the obvious candidate to man the SF spot; he missed last season with injury, but he has the physical attributes to bother foes with his bounce and size (6’8). There’s no Davion Mitchell or Mark Vital here, but ORU has the personnel to play solid man-to-man in the Summit.

The Golden Eagles were also sturdy on the defensive boards, and even without center Emmanuel Nzekwesi, the Golden Eagles should continue to be stout there. Kevin Obanor and Elijah Lufile, two physical 6’8 post players, should clean the glass with aplomb. Depth behind them is shaky, so Latvian Francis Lacis will slide in at power forward at times, and freshmen Nathan Clover and Ismael Plet will be given every shot to earn early minutes.  

Mills also made a drastic change to the offense, giving his team the freedom to get out and run in the open court. Forcing more turnovers defensively obviously helps, but it was more of a wholesale shift in philosophy, going from 186th in average possession length on offense to 46th. The speed of Glasper and Bergens with the ball in their hands will continue to spark the transition attack, and the entire squad’s ability to take care of the ball despite the boost in pace was a welcome surprise:

Losing point guard RJ Fuqua this offseason was an unwelcome surprise (left the team for personal reasons), and there’s some risk in having to replace such a critical position in Mills’ new scheme.

Fortunately, the team’s new point guards will have a lethal pair of shooters to feed: Abmas hit 87 triples at 36.6% as a freshman, while Weaver buried 77 at 42.1% back in 2018-19. The threat of those two should open the court for Obanor running straight to the rim for quick seals and easy finishes. The bench should also have plenty of offensive pop, with transfers Sheldon Stevens, Kareem Thompson, and Glasper all scoring effectively at their previous stops (although the step up in competition is sizable for all three). The most exciting newcomer, though, might be Bergens, a deadly lefty shooter. He could quickly emerge as ORU’s best reserve option if Glasper’s experience helps him secure the starting role.

Bottom Line: The Golden Eagles have a strong backcourt group and an intimidating paint presence in Obanor, who they will play through in the post once things slow to the half court. The shifts on both ends of the court synced up well with the roster, and Mills will hope to see even more progress in year two of the new approaches. Everything in the Summit past South Dakota State is a toss-up, but ORU’s size and shooting could be the edge needed to climb up to second.

5. Omaha

Key Returners: Matt Pile, Ayo Akinwole, Marlon Ruffin, Zach Thornhill, Wanjang Tut, Darrius Hughes
Key Losses: JT Gibson, KJ Robinson
Key Newcomers: Sam’I Roe (JUCO), La’Mel Robinson (redshirt), Marco Smith (UMKC), Jadin Booth

Lineup:

Outlook: Entering its 10th season of Division I play, the Omaha hoops program has the honor of only being headed by one man for that entire decade: Derrin Hansen, a Nebraska native that has been with the program since 1998, 14 years before the jump. Seemingly a Maverick lifer, Hansen has capably guided his team along the bumpy road of transition, initially developing a reputation based on just that: transition, with his first six D-I teams all ranking in the top 13 nationally in pace.

However, Omaha isn’t the same kind of “sprint up and down, unleash hell on defense” team that it was in the mid-2010s with Tra-Deon Hollins lurking everywhere. Instead, Hansen has slowed the tempo somewhat, playing through double-double machine Matt Pile (aka Matt Cox’s favorite player) in the paint and letting quick guards like Ayo Akinwole and Zach Thornhill attack off the dribble. Those two will shoulder a much larger burden without KJ Robinson and JT Gibson, the Mavs’ two leading scorers, both of whom graduated. Akinwole specifically should take on a much larger ball-handling burden after dazzling in the PnR last year (95th percentile):

Note the time and score there - that’s a clutch bucket and impressive patience in such a huge spot. Hansen is also hoping La’Mel Robinson, a touted recruit who redshirted last season, can make waves. The Kansas City native has the quickness, craft with the ball, and court vision to excel in the pick-and-roll, and he should be more advanced than most freshmen after practicing with the team for a year. He may also resurrect the on-ball pressure from several years ago.

Big wing Marlon Ruffin should battle with Robinson and Kansas City transfer Marco Smith for the third starting nod alongside Akinwole and Thornhill. Ruffin has the edge after being a solid sixth man last year, although his ability to play multiple positions could continue to prove valuable off the bench. Smith will get two revenge games against his former squad now that KC has rejoined the Summit, but he hasn’t played since 2017-18, so it may take some time for him to find his role. Plus, JUCO transfer Sam’i Roe and local freshman Jadin Booth are of similar build, increasing the competition for minutes.

With the changing of the guard in the backcourt, Hansen will lean on his veteran forward duo of Pile and Wanjang Tut, each of whom started all 32 games last year. Pile is the headliner, a tireless rebounder and adept interior scorer whose game is mostly held back by a total inability to make free throws (47.6% from the line last year). He does almost everything else well, though, so if he can make any sort of improvement there, he’ll become a dominant force in the Summit. Tut is more of a complementary guy, living in the mid-range on offense and helping reinforce Omaha’s firm hold on the defensive glass.

Mostly unrelated, but it’s my preview and I found it interesting: in Pile’s final game of the season, he went 1/3 from the field, scoring two points in 34 minutes…but he racked up 21 rebounds, plus two blocks and six turnovers! Dennis Rodman would forfeit a date with Carmen Electra for that stat line.

Pile and Tut are pivotal on the defensive end, with Pile ranking 24th nationally in defensive rebound rate and both players ranking in the top 175 nationally in block rate. When they split up, it made a noticeable difference:

Although Pile is terrific, this is more about the lack of depth than Tut being a mega difference-maker. Darrius Hughes struggled as a freshman, which forced Hansen to play a lot of smallball with Ruffin as the nominal power forward. That cut into Omaha’s edge on the glass, its main positive on this end, and did not boost the offense enough to recoup the lost margin. The Mavericks will expect more from Hughes and/or fellow sophomore Nathan Brusseau; otherwise, this issue will persist.

Bottom Line: Hansen has been steadily middling in his 10-year tenure at Omaha, with only one 20-win season and two 20-loss campaigns over that span. This squad looks similarly ordinary, likely battling with the rest of the competitive middle tier in the Summit and falling a decent distance behind league favorite South Dakota State. Pile and the other four solid veterans give Omaha a sturdy floor, and if Robinson, Smith, or Roe can lift the Mavericks on both ends as creators and pesky defenders, they could raise the ceiling. That’s a lot to ask of the newcomers, though, so we’ll go with a prediction that mirrors Pile’s game: steady and productive, but not quite a headliner.

6. Kansas City

Key Returners: Brandon McKissic, Marvin Nesbitt Jr., Franck Kamgain, Josiah Allick, Zion Williams
Key Losses: Javan White, Jordan Giles, Jahshire Hardnett, Rob Whitfield
Key Newcomers: Demarius Pitts (D-II), Jonathan Bolden (JUCO), Hidde Roessink (Oklahoma St.)***, De’Anthony Pennington, Kaimen Lennox, Caden Boser, Tyre Boykin, Sam Martin (redshirt)

Lineup:

Outlook: After a seven-year stretch in the WAC, Kansas City is coming home to the Summit, its conference residence from 1994 (when it was known as the Mid-Continental) to 2013. There’s arguably never been a better time for such a move, either, as the already-torturous WAC travel slate – to Seattle, Bakersfield, Phoenix, etc. – was made even more untenable by the dastardly Coron A. Virus.  The Summit still has a few longish trips, but its much more concentrated, and Coach Billy Donlon should be more comfortable in his native Midwest. The administration hired Donlon last offseason to navigate the league change, and he started his tenure strongly, winning 16 games and finishing above .500 in conference play, only the third time that’s happened since 2006.

Continuing that success into a balanced Summit starts on the defensive end, where Donlon’s aggressive man-to-man has long been his calling card. His Wright State teams had a decidedly defensive tilt to them:

Plus, he is the forgotten man behind Michigan’s defensive evolution, preceding Luke Yaklich’s arrival, and he coordinated the #19 defense in the country in 2019 at Northwestern (!!). Brandon McKissic sets the tone, harassing ball-handlers and using his strength to take away penetration; he was a member of the WAC All-Defensive team last year. Marvin Nesbitt and Zion Williams are also solid guard defenders, and the Kangaroos really took off on this end when forward Josiah Allick took on a bigger role in conference play, helping KC rank 2nd in the WAC, behind only two-way juggernaut New Mexico State. Those four provide an excellent core around which Donlon can construct his first Summit defense.

I also included Donlon’s tempo rankings in the above to demonstrate another tenet of his style: grinding in the half court. Fun fact: a kangaroo can run up to 35 miles per hour, significantly faster than even Usain Bolt (27.8mph), but Donlon is having none of that. He knows that longer defensive possessions tend to lead to bad shots when pressed up against a dwindling shot clock, and his defenses’ ability to drag out the timer while also forcing a bevy of turnovers is massively beneficial. One more quick graphic – his teams aren’t constantly gambling for steals, per se, instead ranking in the country’s elite at “non-steal TO%” – things like travels, errant passes, and shot clock violations:

If you aren’t composed late in the shot clock, you’ll have issues against this ‘Roo squad.

Of course, that first graphic also portrays the struggles that Donlon teams have had on offense. He almost entirely ignores the offensive glass to prioritize transition defense, meaning Allick or JUCO transfer Jonathan Bolden will likely be on an island in the paint. His bigs do get consistent touches on the block, though, so those two will be counted on to provide points inside. Assuming he’s eligible, Oklahoma State transfer Hidde Roessink brings an element of perimeter skill to the frontcourt, as the Dutchman is a typically smooth-shooting European big man with an astute hoops IQ.

Roessink could add the threat of pick-and-pop to the Kangaroo attack, which would be a massive boost for a team that often became one-dimensional in the pick-and-roll last year. McKissic will be crucial in this area, as well, as he is the team’s only competent returner in the PnR; Williams was objectively terrible, and Nesbitt spent his time spotting up. That opens the door for Franck Kamgain, who, like Allick, clawed his way to more minutes late, and freshmen D’Anthony Pennington and Tyre Boykin, all of whom will have a chance to claim minutes if they prove they can handle the ball and create for teammates. D-II transfer Demarius Pitts is more in the Nesbitt mold as score-first wing.

Bottom Line: Donlon has the pieces to build a strong defense in his aggressive image, and forcing turnovers is especially key in a league that’s constantly full of outstanding shooters (1st in eFG% last year). Unfortunately, that aggression leads to a ton of fouls, and Summit opponents will punish the ‘Roos at the line. Still, this is no great step up in terms of competition, and Donlon has enough talent and experience on his roster to scrap with the league’s middle tier.

7. North Dakota

Key Returners: Filip Rebraca, De’Sean Allen-Eikens, Brady Danielson
Key Losses: Marlon Stewart, Kienan Walter, Billy Brown
Key Newcomers: Caleb Nero (Weber St.), Tyree Ihenacho, Mitchell Sueker (JUCO), Nate Shockey, Andrew Bergan, Carlos Ramsey Jr. (redshirt), Seybian Sims (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: As a survivor of the Kim Anderson Catastrophe at Missouri, I’m understandably scarred by Division II-to-Division I hires, as Paul Sather was for North Dakota last offseason. Comparing the SEC to the Summit is apples-to-potato chips, though, as the two are wholly different beasts in terms of what it takes to succeed. Sather was proof of that: after two tremendous seasons at Northern State (including a national runner-up), he boosted UND by 40 spots in KenPom while gaining three wins and improving the team’s league record. We must also remember that 2019-20 was just UND’s second season after coming over from the Big Sky, so the process is still ongoing.

Sather has two primary weapons returning to ignite the Hawks’ attack. Filip Rebraca should be the featured fixture in the paint, a skilled post scorer and tireless rebounder. He thrives going over his left shoulder or as a face up driver, so Sather makes a concerted effort to get him the ball on the left block, and the Summit isn’t exactly flush with big-bodied post defenders. He showed impressive passing vision, as well, and De’Sean Allen-Eikens will be his first look whenever double-teams come. Allen-Eikens exceeded all expectations for his redshirt freshman campaign, bullying his way to the rim with his big, athletic frame on the wing:

The rising star even flashed a promising perimeter stroke; 32.0% isn’t great, but the form is smooth, and he should continue to wield it as a complementary threat to his driving. That duo alone makes UND a threat, but unfortunately, that’s about it in terms of proven contributors.

Aside from post ups, Sather’s spread offense also featured a heavy dose of spot up chances for the guards and stretch big Kienan Walter, and the Hawks lose almost every other member of Sather’s extremely short rotation (351st in bench minutes). Brady Danielson was the only consistently-used sub, and his bricky shooting (23.2% from deep) isn’t going to scare opponents. Lithuanian sophomore Gertautas Urbonavicius could help replace Walter’s frontcourt shooting, and the little-used forward was actually solid for a three-game stretch in the middle of league play when a Rebraca injury and Walter foul trouble pressed him into major minutes. Still, it would take a big leap for him to be a key starter this year.

That puts in inordinate amount of pressure on the newcomers, specifically the guards. Weber State transfer Caleb Nero and freshman Tyree Ihenacho could both start, and they can split creation duties when they share the floor. Ihenacho is a high-upside addition thanks to his vertical bounce and burgeoning perimeter stroke, and he may have been an underrated recruit while being overshadowed in high school by top 50 recruit and Marquette-bound forward Dawson Garcia. Classmate Nate Shockey is another combo-ish guard with length and strong defensive instincts, so he’ll play a ton of minutes, as well. And if redshirt freshman Carlos Ramsey Jr. plays like he did as a high school senior at prestigious Arizona Compass Prep, the powerful lefty could even force Danielson to the bench again while forming a “Bash Brothers” on the wing with Allen-Eikens.

The frontcourt will also need contributions from the newcomers, with Mitchell Sueker being the most likely to beat Urbonavicius out for stretch four minutes. Sueker hit 37% of his triples at Division II South Dakota School of Mines, and his frame is nearly identical to Walter’s. He’ll need to beat out skilled freshman Andrew Bergan, as well. Seybian Sims, a JUCO import, looks like a role player off the bench.

It remains to be seen how all of the roster turnover impacts the defensive end, North Dakota’s glaring flaw last year. Like almost every Summit defense, Sather went with a conservative man-to-man approach, although he made a concerted effort to push foes off the three-point line. That didn’t stop opponents from lighting it up from deep, though (37.3%, a bottom 25 rate nationally). The conference as a whole had the lowest turnover rate in the country, with UND’s 342nd-ranked TO% falling right in line with that trend, and Rebraca’s dominance on the defensive glass can only mean so much when foes don’t miss or turn it over. Between Ihenacho, Shockey, Ramsey, and Allen-Eikens, the roster has some tantalizing individual defenders, but getting it to mesh into a cohesive unit will be keep Sather awake at night.

Bottom Line: A lot of North Dakota’s season hinges on two factors: Sather’s ability to make the correct tweaks on defense, and whether multiple players can emerge as useful backcourt creators/contributors. The core of Rebraca and Allen-Eikens is formidable and cements the Hawks firmly in the tier behind South Dakota State, but rising through that parity-fest will require Nero, Ihenacho, and others quickly emerging into solid ball-handlers and shooters. It’s possible, but that concern and Sather’s limited track record in Division I are enough to keep the Hawks towards the low end of that tier for me at this point.

Tier 3

8. Denver

Key Returners: Jase Townsend, Robert Jones, Taelyr Gatlin, Roscoe Eastmond, Tristan Green
Key Losses: Ade Murkey, David Nzekwesi, Alperen Kurnaz (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Kobey Lam (JUCO), Drake Muller, Sam Hines, Eric Moenkhaus (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: When the Pioneers fired Joe Scott four years ago, it was difficult to defend in the moment, as Scott had won 19+ games three times at a school that has only been Division I since 1998-99 season.  Included among that run was an incredible 2013 campaign in which Scott used his Princeton offense and tricky zone defenses to crack KenPom’s top 50. The Rodney Billups era has seen no such success, and Billups has won fewer games in every successive campaign (16 to 15 to 8 to 7). Chauncey’s younger brother had limited coaching experience when he took over (just four seasons as an assistant on Colorado’s bench), and hiring the alum with the high-pedigree name has unfortunately not borne the success the administration hoped.  

To Billups’ credit, he has at least not hesitated to try new things, throwing different styles at the wall to see what sticks. This three-year Synergy snapshot of his offenses shows the wild swings that take place, from post-heavy in 2018, to a more balanced motion in 2019, to pick-and-roll-heavy last year:

Billups is trying to tailor his approach to his roster, but it’s possible that the lack of a consistent system has stunted his players’ ability to develop. Without star scorer Ade Murkey, he may back off of such a heavy PnR lean this season, although Jase Townsend may leap up into the 19-20 PPG range after effectively playing Robin to Murkey’s Batman last year. He’s a skilled multi-level scorer, albeit without the same innate ability to draw contact that Murkey possessed.

The tiny but lightning-quick Roscoe Eastmond should slot in at point guard, and Taelyr Gatlin is a candidate to flank the two after starting 27 games last year. Gatlin was frighteningly poor on the offensive end, though, so expect newcomers Kobey Lam and Drake Muller to have every opportunity to take his spot. Lam especially makes sense given his perimeter stroke (78 makes at 41.1% last year) and Denver’s desperate need for shooting beyond Townsend. Muller has soft touch too, and Eric Moenkhaus, another JUCO transfer, may also see some floor time due to his ability to hit jumpers.

Denver also has the option of playing through Robert Jones more on the block, a 6’10 sophomore who flashed potential last year, shooting 58% from the field. His game still needs polish, but his size in the Summit makes him a difficult matchup (he shot 64.4% in conference games, 3rd-best in the league). Looking back at 2018, Billups fed another big man, Daniel Amigo, over and over, so Jones may eventually rise into a similar role.

Last year’s defense had the ignominious honor of ranking poorly in both forcing turnovers (263rd in turnover rate) and fouling (290th in free throw rate), a relationship that often is inverse due to how both relate to aggression and physicality. Being notably bad at both is usually a tough challenge, but the Pioneers have accomplished that “feat” in three of Billups’ four years, seemingly an indication that the current scheme is not working. He runs mostly man-to-man, packing players in the paint and giving up a bevy of threes (311th in defensive 3PA rate) in an effort to own the defensive glass (66th in D-Reb %). Strangely, Jones is not a particularly stout rebounder despite his size, so Townsend and forwards Tristan Green, JaVonni Bickham, and Sam Hines will be expected to make significant contributions here.

The other issue is something I’ve harped on in many a preview this year: shot selection. The Pioneers do not force opponents into the uncomfortable mid-range area at all, with 80.7% of shots coming at the rim or beyond the arc, the 8th-highest rate in the country per Hoop-Math. That gives foes an inherent advantage, as they’re consistently getting analytically valuable attempts against Denver’s defense. To wit: the Pioneers ranked 338th in Dribble Handoff’s Defensive Shot Quality metric last year. With a major dearth of size (only two players above 6’6) and a seemingly flawed scheme, that may not improve this year.  

Bottom Line: Billups is still searching for something that works on both ends of the floor, and if he doesn’t find it this year, he may be searching for a job next offseason, instead. Townsend provides hope as an offensive fulcrum, and Jones could develop into more of a force inside, but the Pioneers have a long way to go to even edge into “competitive” territory after a nightmarish 2020.

9. Western Illinois

Key Returners: Umm…Anthony Jones, I guess? Hey, there’s a new head coach!!
Key Losses: Everyone!
Key Newcomers: Rod Johnson (Chattanooga), Marcus Watson, Justin Brookens (JUCO), Cameron Burrell (JUCO), JJ Flores (JUCO), Colton Sandage (JUCO), Braden Lamar, Will Carius (D-III), Adam Anhold (JUCO), Tamell Pearson (UAB)***

*** - still waiting on a waiver to play this year, but we’d expect the Chicago native to get it

Lineup:

Outlook: You know the term “factory reset”? When one of your electronics (I’m looking at you, iPhone) acts up in such a way that you need to wipe the slate clean and start entirely from scratch? That’s what’s happening in Macomb, Illinois, this offseason. Billy Wright was let go after amassing a cringeworthy 53-115 record in six years, including 20-74 in Summit play – 21.3% is a brutal win rate, even at a place that’s as difficult to succeed at as WIU. The administration brought in former Milwaukee head coach Rob Jeter, and his arrival prompted a colossal roster overhaul that saw all but two scholarship players (including all five starters) hit the road. To recap: new coach, 11 new players…now you see what I mean with “factory reset.” Perhaps the most shocking part is that two teams (Kentucky and Samford) somehow return less than WIU:

Jeter was actually very solid at Milwaukee, winning 56.3% of his conference games and tallying 20+ wins five times in 11 years. He had the unfortunate honor of following Bruce Pearl’s incredible run of success, though (four years in KenPom’s top 100, capped by a Sweet 16 in 2005), and Jeter’s cycle of building and then rebuilding was apparently not enough sustained success to keep his job (ask Panther fans how it’s gone since he left!). Rather than building from the ground up, though, Jeter assembled an oddball roster of JUCO transfers, grad transfers, a Division III transfer – plus a couple touted freshmen – to give himself a better chance at winning quickly in Macomb.

As a former Bo Ryan assistant, Jeter values versatility highly: big men that can step out and shoot, guards that can physically defend and even post up at times. To that end, grabbing Rob Johnson from Chattanooga was a solid move, a versatile forward who could thrive with the slight step down in competition. Division III transfer Will Carius was a prolific scorer at nearby Monmouth College, and he should also bring some range to the frontcourt, with UAB transfer Tamell Pearson another possible option after going 7/15 from deep last year in limited minutes. Pearson still needs a waiver, though.

Jeter sacrificed physicality in the backcourt for intriguing talent, especially with JUCO transfer Justin Brookens and former Wake Forest commit Marcus Watson, both sub-6’0 scorers. Playing them together could hurt the defense, but it would give the Leathernecks a lightning-quick, offensively potent duo who could give foes headaches attacking the space opened up by Johnson and Carius. Colton Sandage, another JUCO transfer from powerhouse Vincennes, and freshman Braden Lamar offer more conventional shooting from the wing.

Jeter also raided Highland College, an in-state junior college, for three new additions. JJ Flores, Cameron Burrell, and Adam Anhold helped their squad go 27-7 last year, and they collectively bring a more physical presence to the roster. All have chances to start, though Burrell – who played at cross-state rival Eastern Illinois before moving to Highland for a year – may be the most valuable of the bunch thanks to his ability to play and guard multiple positions while stuffing the stat sheet (9.8 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.2 BPG). The roster’s only returners, Anthony Jones and Keshon Montague, may get passed over in favor of the bevy of newcomers.

Defensively, Jeter will install a packed in man-to-man akin to his mentor Bo Ryan. The Leathernecks will try to dominate the defensive glass, avoid fouling, and force foes to make plays off the bounce without gambling. With such a hodgepodge of new pieces from all kinds of different backgrounds, school-wise, it may be difficult to quickly assemble a competent defense, particularly with COVID impacting offseason workouts. Jeter only had one unit rank worse than 220th in KenPom’s AdjDE, though, so the floor should be higher than WIU’s disastrous defense last year (343rd).  

Bottom Line: With so many new faces on the court and on the sideline, it’s hard to know what to expect out of the Leathernecks. Jeter is a solid hire who has succeeded in the Midwest before, and the combination of his coaching and the intriguing talent influx means WIU could actually be competitive in the Summit. The questions about roles and fit hold me back, though, and it may take more intensive program surgery than quick roster band-aids to boost this squad back to true relevance.