-Jim Root

Key Returners: Osun Osunniyi, Kyle Lofton, Jaren Holmes, Dominick Welch, Jalen Adaway
Key Losses: Alejandro Vasquez (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Quadry Adams (Wake Forest), Karim Coulibaly (Pitt), Linton Brown (JUCO), Oluwasegun Durosinmi (JUCO), Justin Ndjock-Tadjore, Joryam Saizonou

Lineup:

Outlook: After a terrific (if somewhat anonymous) 14-year run at St. Bonaventure, Coach Mark Schmidt finally had what was very clearly his best team last year. The Bonnies won the A-10 regular season and Tournament titles despite having almost zero non-conference warm-up to speak of (just two games due to COVID), making the NCAA Tournament for just the eighth time in the history of the program (third since 2012).

Despite all of that success, though, the Bonnies have their eyes set even higher this time around. With five rising senior starters returning for another shot at March glory, optimism around this group appears quite reasonable, as it is that five-man unit that made the Bonnies one of the best defensive teams in the country.

Though every one of those starters is a plus defender, the unquestioned anchor is Atlantic 10 Defensive Player of the Year Osun Osunniyi, an endlessly-limbed shot-swatter who owns the paint with an iron fist. Foes have little chance against the long arm of “Shoon’s” law – sorry about this, Hasahn French:

Thanks to Shoon being a human eraser, the Bonnies ranked 25th in the country in FG% defense at the rim, per Hoop-Math, often eliminating that as a scoring option entirely. He’s not an awful defender in space, but to beat the Bonnies’ defense, you need to get him away from the rim – or get him in foul trouble.

The latter option proved most effective for opponents last year. When Shoon was off the floor, the Bonnies fell apart on both ends:

Those splits are equal parts “Shoon is incredible” and “St. Bonaventure had no reasonable backup,” the second portion of which was true at essentially every position last year. Those five returning starters all ranked in the top 197 nationally in percentage of minutes played, resulting in the lowest share of minutes played by the bench in the entire country – and it was not close:

Fortunately, the starting five complement each other wonderfully, with Shoon anchoring the paint, the backcourt triumvirate of Kyle Lofton, Jaren Holmes, and Dominick Welch providing most of the offensive pop, and versatile forward Jalen Adaway filling in the gaps as a scrappy “Know Your Role” All-Star.

Lofton is the linchpin at point guard, a rangy floor general who never left the court, leading the entire country in percentage of minutes played. His perimeter shooting mysteriously vanished last year (24% from deep after a respectable 33% over his first two years), but his value is far more rolled up in his steady ball-handling and outstanding court vision. He expertly uses his eyes to manipulate the defense, patiently waiting for passing windows to open:

Pairing Shoon’s finishing with Lofton’s passing acumen makes for a deadly pick-and-roll duo.

Holmes is a well-built three-level scorer capable of slashing or punishing defenses from deep; his 38-point explosion in the fifth game of the year loudly announced his significant offensive development. Welch is the sniper, burying a team-leading 51 triples primarily as a floor spacer. All three guards have terrific strength and length for their positions, amping up the perimeter defense that orbits around Shoon.

Partially due to the lack of depth, Schmidt keeps his team playing half court games, often shunning transition opportunities to instead walk the ball up the floor and shorten the game. The veteran-laden squad is well-versed in Schmidt’s motion offense, which incorporates a ton of off-ball screening and movement to bend and confuse defenses. Isolation and post ups are of little use in Schmidt’s attack, as he vastly prefers surgical execution as a means to getting buckets. Oh, and don’t zone this team – the ball movement is simply too crisp, even if the perimeter shooting is not always automatic.

Having so much consistency in the starting five establishes a solid floor for the 2021-22 Bonnies. Ultimately, though, the ceiling of this team will be determined by the new bench mob. Can the reinforcements Schmidt brought in quickly earn his trust? Can they allow the starters to play more aggressively and not fear getting in foul trouble or wearing down late in games? Pitt transfer Karim Coulibaly and JUCO transfer Oluwasegun Durosinmi provide options in the paint; Coulibaly has the high-major pedigree, but it’s the long-armed Durosinmi that boasts the upside. He averaged more than four blocks per game at Harcum College, meaning that if Schmidt can get him caught up to the speed of the Division I game, he can provide a “like-for-like” sub when Osunniyi sits. In the backcourt, Linton Brown was a lights-out shooter in junior college (73 makes at 48.3%), while Quadry Adams comes over from Wake Forest with decent potential. Lofton may continue to play nearly every minute, though, unless freshman Joryam Saizonou is ready for the big-time.

Bottom Line: With so much returning from last year’s dual champion, the A-10 certainly runs through Olean this year. The defense should remain top-shelf with Shoon as an anchor (provided he stays on the court – injuries have hampered him in the past), and if Lofton’s shooting progresses, the offense will be even better, as well. Finding enough areas of improvement will depend on whether the team can survive minutes without all five starters on the floor, though. If two or three reserves can prove trustworthy, the Bonnies will be less prone to frustrating offensive droughts, and they’ll even be able to play in transition a little more. The floor is high, but winning a game (or two or three) in March should absolutely be the goal for Schmidt and his seniors.