-Jim Root

That’s right, this is the first year in the history of our site that the Southland is NOT being written by Mr. Ky McKeon. An internal miscommunication is at fault, but regardless, this means that I get to take a flamethrower to his precious little rose - this should be a blast…

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Gavin Kensmil, Sr., Stephen F. Austin
Coach of the Year: Joe Golding, Abilene Christian
Newcomer of the Year: Nigel Hawkins, Jr., Stephen F. Austin
Freshman of the Year: Bryce Monroe, Sam Houston St.

Tier 1

1. Stephen F. Austin

Key Returners: Gavin Kensmil, Cameron Johnson, Roti Ware, David Kachelries, Calvin Solomon, Charlie Daniels
Key Losses: Kevon Harris, Nathan Bain, John Comeaux
Key Newcomers: Nigel Hawkins (UTEP), DeAndre Heckard (JUCO), Jaylin Jackson-Posey, Demiere Brown (JUCO/redshirt), Nana Antwi-Boasiako

Lineup:

Outlook: It took three seasons, but Kyle Keller emphatically restored the aura of Southland invincibility around the SFA program. Danny Kaspar laid the foundation for that dominance, and Brad Underwood perfected it during a mind-bending 59-1 stretch against his overmatched league foes from 2014-16, vaulting him straight to a power conference job and leaping several steps on the coaching ladder. The Jacks tumbled in 2018-19, finishing with their worst ranking of the 24-year KenPom era (311th), but that proved to be the perfect case study of a “just throw it out” season. Last year’s SFA squad won 15 straight games to end the regular season and was salivating for more blood in the postseason, only for coronavirus to halt the carnage before it could begin.

Oh, and in case you somehow forgot about the most delightful game of the 2019-20 season, the Lumberjacks also chopped down the mighty Duke redwood, toppling the Blue Devils as 27.5-point underdogs at the 3OT buzzer in Cameron Indoor. What a night.

Keller recaptured the SFA magic by forcefully leaning his Lumberjacks into an identity as an aggressive, downhill terror. This matches the DNA of the Southland itself: it’s a league that emphasizes pressure defense and pounding the rim on offense, and last year’s league was the most extreme version of itself in recent memory:

With an extraordinarily deep roster – 10 players averaged 12+ minutes per game – and a bevy of long, multip-positional athletes among that group, SFA evolved into the “most Southland” team imaginable:

Keller’s army of berserkers assaulted the paint offensively, leading the entire country in frequency of shot attempts at the rim (per hoop-math), and lived in opponents’ shorts on the other end. Playing against the Jacks was an outright pain in the ass, and even with the loss of Southland POY Kevon Harris and two other key pieces (including Duke slayer Nathan Bain), SFA will once again give opponents nightmares.

Burly forward Gavin Kensmil leads the onslaught, gobbling up rebounds and ranking 72nd nationally in free throw rate. He’s simply too physical for most opponents to handle, and the Surinamese senior could follow in Harris’ footsteps to earn the league’s premier individual honor. Rotation bigs Calvin Solomon and Charlie Daniels ensure that Keller will have plenty of interior depth, and freshman Nana Antwi-Boasiako turned down several bigger programs to stay home. The Nacogdoches High School product oozes upside with his mobility and shot-blocking prowess.

Harris, Bain, and John Comeaux were all terrific fits in the defensive system (Comeaux ranked 12th nationally in steal rate), and the Jacks clearly excelled when they played together, allowing a microscopic 0.76 points per possession, per Hoop Lens. Roti Ware, notably a sniper on the offensive end, and Oddyst Walker will rise into more important roles in Keller’s pressure schemes, and incoming guards DeAndre Heckard (JUCO), Nigel Hawkins (UTEP), and Jaylin Jackson-Posey (freshman) will all be counted on to defend for 94 feet, as well.

That trio is vital for the smooth transition of offensive power. Heckard is a tremendous floor general, and he offers more dynamism than veteran security blanket David Kachelries. Hawkins and Jackson-Posey could both be prolific scorers the second they arrive: Hawkins got buried by some transfers last year, but he tallied 12.6 PPG as a C-USA rookie, while Jackson-Posey’s pedigree portends massive early production after turning down offers from instate powers TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, and Texas A&M (per 247sports). Both of them fit the bill as aggressive, physical rim attackers, so they should mesh comfortably into Keller’s style immediately. All four will be tasked with playing more responsibly – the Jacks’ go, go, go mindset led to far too many sloppy turnovers.

Ware and Cameron Johnson provide what little shooting the Lumberjacks need, combining to go 44/111 from deep last year (39.6%). The three-point arc is largely an afterthought (344th in 3PA rate), but it helps to have a couple guys who can hit the backbreaking shot in a lightning-quick 9-0 run. Johnson is much more than a shooter, though (in fact, that’s probably the least important part of his game), and the 205-pound guard knows how to use his physical frame to get to the cup.

Bottom Line: From start to finish, SFA underwent the largest efficiency margin increase in the country last year, per KenPom’s rankings, narrowly edging out San Diego State. Even without Harris, Bain, and Comeaux, basically every aspect of how that team succeeded looks repeatable, meaning SFA may once again lord over its Southland adversaries. Keller might not ascend the coaching ladder as quickly as Underwood, but if he has another year like last season, other schools will surely come calling.

Tier 2

2. Abilene Christian

Key Returners: Joe Pleasant, Clay Gayman, Damien Daniels, Coryon Mason, Kolton Kohl, Airion Simmons, Reggie Miller
Key Losses: Peyton Ricks, Hayden Howell
Key Newcomers: Immanuel Allen (JUCO/redshirt), Logan McLaughlin, Cameron Steele, Jameson Richardson

Lineup:

Outlook: You know how a lot of NBA teams and their G-League affiliates have similar-ish (or even identical) names? The Milwaukee Bucks/Wisconsin Herd, Charlotte Hornets/Greensboro Swarm, etc. Most of them have the same color schemes, too. In that vein, I always associate Abilene Christian with TCU (Texas Christian) – they’re somewhat nearby in Texas, they’re both private Christian universities, and they both wear purple. The only issue is that Abilene is the blandly-named “Wildcats.” I’d like to petition to change their mascot to the Nasty Newts or the Venomous Toads or something of that ilk to reflect TCU’s Horned Frogs, even though this is absolutely not a minor league affiliate situation.

Coach Joe Golding has succeeded at everything else at the school (it’s his alma mater, after all), so I think he can handle a task as simple as this one. Golding’s remarkable recent run of winning hoops (47-18 the last two years) has been incredibly impressive for a school that only joined the D-I ranks the same year that The Wolf of Wall Street came out (2013), and ACU had the best shot at taking down Stephen F. Austin in the now-hypothetical Southland Conference Tournament. That gravy train of victories should keep on chugging this year with a deep core returning to the fold, and the Nasty Newts (I’m trying it on) will once again be anchored by an aggressive and physical defense.

ACU ranked 2nd in the entire country in forced turnover rate last season, keyed by Golding’s up-the-line man-to-man that takes away passing lanes and forces teams to put the ball on the floor. In some ways, that plays into what their opponents want to do (the Southland loves to attack the rim), but the harassing ACU defenders like Damien Daniels, Coryon Mason, Immanuel Allen, and Reggie Miller make things challenging enough that it’s not a lay-up line. Plus, the Wildcats have two solid rim protectors in 7-footer Kolten Kohl and athletic forward Clay Gayman.

The familiar beat of the defensive drum helped ACU finish 6th in consistency per Haslametrics, indicating that you knew what kind of performance you were getting from Golding’s guys on a nightly basis. Peyton Ricks was a key component of that steadiness on both ends of the floor, though, and losing his shooting will be especially painful for a team that sorely lacks deep threats. Ricks hit 83 of ACU’s meager 209 triples for the season (40%), with no one else even sinking 20, so foes should make the Wildcats prove they can shoot before collapsing into the paint. Mason and freshman Logan McLaughlin will be need to step up; this Reggie Miller (17.6% from deep) is nothing like the Pacer legend.

That could be an issue, because the paint is where this offense thrives. Golding’s motion offense is somewhat Purdue-esque in its high usage of post ups, as ACU has ranked 4th and 2nd nationally the last two years in rate of possessions ending on the block. He’s happy to throw it to Kohl, Gayman, or Joe Pleasant and let them go to work, but the web of screens on the perimeter won’t stress opponents if no one hits shots. Curiously, the team’s best shooters might be Gayman, Pleasant, and 264-pound forward Airion Simmons.

Having multiple post threats should allow Golding to punish mismatches, though. All three scored effectively, and the offense thrived when they found open shooters or cutters:

Despite the stark size difference and Gayman’s decent shooting stroke, Golding rarely played him and Kohl together last season, instead mostly platooning the two big men as a two-headed center monster. The rare occasions in which he allowed the tag team to get in the ring paid off, though:

Golding may feel compelled to utilize that lineup combination more frequently in 2020-21 as a result.

Bottom Line: Especially in league play against a lesser class of ball-handler, the Wildcats’ should be able to trust their pressure-heavy defense. That creates a relatively stable floor, and ACU can play towards the higher end of its outcomes if the perimeter shooters can give the team’s deep frontcourt some space to play with in the paint. Golding will tweak his system to put the current roster in the best place to succeed, and that gives me the confidence to predict the Venomous Toads (alright fine, the Wildcats) to once again finish as the bridesmaid to SFA’s bride.

3. Nicholls St.

Key Returners: Kevin Johnson, Andre Jones
Key Losses: Dexter McClanahan, Elvis Harvey, D’Angelo Hunter, Warith Alatishe (transfer), Brandon Moore
Key Newcomers: Shawn Williams (NMSU), Najee Garvin (Charlotte), Damien Sears (St. John’s), Jaylen Fornes (UNCW), Isaac Johnson (Western Illinois), AJ Rainey (JUCO), Anquaevious Pollard (JUCO), Pierce Spencer, Ty Gordon (Troy)***

*** - needs a waiver to play this year

Lineup:

Outlook: I missed our pod interview with Austin Claunch early last season, but I’ll never escape the reality that Mr. Claunch is two months younger than me and already has a 20-win season at the helm of a Division I program under his belt. Meanwhile, I’m cobbling together a preview of his third squad in Thibodaux as a hopeful writer/podcaster. I think he’s on a better career path!

Eerily, Claunch’s trajectory is a carbon copy of his former boss Richie Riley’s. Both coaches went 14-17 (7-11) during their first seasons at Nicholls, and both bounced back with 21 wins the next season, including 15 Southland victories. Even their KenPom ratings closely mirror each other:

I would never wish Coach Claunch a loss, but the Colonels dropping their Southland Tourney opener to finish 21-11 would have done wonders for my narrative…

Win/loss records aren’t the only obvious similarity between the two, though. Like Riley, Claunch has been a transfer portal maven, repeatedly scoring talented additions to feature in his system. His latest coup is Shawn Williams, a former prolific scorer at ECU early in his career who never quite got it going at New Mexico State last year. He also landed Damien Sears, an athletic forward who fits the team’s uptempo style, and Ty Gordon, a forceful playmaker who has yet to receive a waiver to play this season.

That’s not to mention last year’s transfer haul, as three players – Najee Garvin, Jaylen Fornes, and Isaac Johnson – all sat out. Paired with veteran guards Andre Jones and Kevin Johnson and JUCO imports AJ Rainey and Anquevious Pollard, that influx of talent gives Claunch a roster capable of repeating last season’s Southland success – and maybe even challenging SFA if the pieces come together smoothly.

A deep and athletic rotation is vital for Claunch’s defensive approach, which involves large doses of full court pressing (20th nationally, per Synergy) in the hope of forcing turnovers and/or speeding foes up. Even in the half court, pressure is the name of the game, running opponents off the three-point line at the cost of surrendering a huge share of shots at the rim.

Claunch is betting that your driving guards won’t be able to finish consistently while being chased by quick guards and challenged by bouncy bigs, and Sears, Garvin, and Pollard form a stout trio inside. Plus, he can always throw in center Ryghe Lyons if he wants a true rim protector. Losing Warith Alatishe threatens to completely undermine the Colonels’ already poor defensive rebounding, though – the new bigs must find a way to hold up in that regard.

Offensively, Nicholls mostly wants to beat you with its talent – spread you out, drive into gaps, force two to play one. Unlike most of the Southland, the Colonels are willing to pull the trigger from deep and don’t desperately rely on the free throw line for points. The team’s lone veterans, Johnson and Jones, are capable linchpins, and adding so many other guys who can get a bucket – Williams especially, Fornes, Isaac Johnson, Rainey – will make this perimeter group a pain to defend. Pollard, Sears, and Garvin will get opportunities to score here and there, but they’ll mostly be asked to finish and dump-offs and attack the boards.

Bottom Line: Maintaining (and even expanding on) Riley’s transfer pipeline has enabled Claunch to assemble an impressively talented roster, although questions exist about how quickly it will all come together with so much turnover in a COVID offseason. He proved last year that the Colonels can play with the big boys – lost in OT at Illinois on opening night, won at Pitt, covered easily at LSU and Rhode Island – and this roster may be even more loaded than last year’s. The Colonels look like a top three squad in the Southland once again.

Tier 3

4. Sam Houston St.

Key Returners: Zach Nutall, Demarkus Lampley
Key Losses: Kai Mitchell, Chad Bowie, Dainan Swoope, RJ Smith (transfer), Xavier Bryant (transfer), Mark Tikhonenko (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Bryce Monroe, Tristan Ikpe (JUCO), Donte Powers (JUCO), Dylan Robertson (JUCO), Manny Crump (JUCO), Kian Scroggins, Jarren Cook, Javion May (JUCO), Pierce Hellums (redshirt)

Lineup:

Outlook: I have zero self-control or self-respect, so I can’t resist the temptation to call Jason Hooten and Sam Houston State “Hootie and the Bearkats.” Hootie has led the band for over a decade now, and his Bearkats have not finished worse than 11-9 in the conference since 2012-13. He has consistently found ways to piece together competitive Southland squads despite continuous roster turnover, pulling in talent from the transfer portal and an impressive JUCO pipeline. Unfortunately, due to the pandemic, Hootie has significantly less of a vital resource as he orchestrates another seemingly disjointed roster:

Bringing it all together takes time. The Bearkats do boast an outstanding lead guitarist in Zach Nutall and a key backup vocalist in Demarkus Lampley, but incorporating five JUCO transfers and three freshmen make Hootie’s duty as bandleader a difficult one indeed.

One of Hootie’s most important traits as a coach has been his stylistic flexibility, allowing his team’s composition to dictate decisions like pace, free throw rate, and 3PA rate. Just look at the stark differences between his 2019 squad – a deliberate one with a bevy of perimeter snipers – and last year, which needed to run and attack in transition to score efficiently:

Nutall, a scoring-minded guard who finds ways to get buckets at all three levels, and Lampley, a long-range sniper, could fit in either approach, so the newcomers’ impact may guide Hooten’s schematic choices.

Playing slower might make more sense given the lack of experienced ball-handlers. Bryce Monroe, a lightning-quick lead guard from San Francisco, and JUCO import Donte Powers are the most likely candidates to log minutes at the point, and keeping Nutall off the ball would certainly help the all-conference perfomer remain focused on what he does best. Monroe has the talent, but he’s still a freshman, and letting him drive an up-tempo attack could lead to turnover issues. Pierce Hellums got a ton of reps last year while redshirting, but he’s wired to score first, pass second.

Hootie also adds a couple intriguing forwards from the JUCO ranks, most notably Tristan Ikpe, a double-double machine at Blinn College who could also help fill the Kai Mitchell void as a frontcourt initiator. Dylan Robertson is a more conventional center who ranked 4th in the NJCAA in FG% last year, while Manny Crump could offer some shooting from the PF spot at times.

The Bearkats have been far more consistent on the defensive end, taking on an identity that befits a Southland contender: exert pressure on the offense, force turnovers, commit far too many fouls. Nutall is a clever defender with great anticipation, while Monroe, Powers, veteran Terryonte Thomas, and JUCO transfer Javion May will be asked to harass ball-handlers all over the court.

The Bearkats have also made concerted efforts to divert opponents away from the rim, a significant strategy in a conference where nearly every foe wants to tilt the court and play downhill towards the bucket:

To beat SHSU, you have to be able to hit some shots to loosen up the defense. Robertson immediately becomes the team’s best rim protector, and Hooten will rely heavily on him and Ikpe to stop the bleeding on the defensive glass (299th in defensive rebound rate, by far the worst mark in Hooten’s tenure).

Bottom Line: Hootie and the Bearkats have proven immune to a “letdown album;” season after season, Sam Houston State is in the thick of the Southland race. They’ve yet to go platinum, though, having never made the NCAA Tournament in Hooten’s 10 campaigns. Having a star like Nutall is a terrific place to start, and Hooten added another crop of immediate contributors this offseason, but it may take more time (tiiiiiime…) than usual to mesh them all together into a coherent contender with an established identity.

5. Lamar

Key Returners: Davion Buster, Avery Sullivan, Anderson Kopp, Ellis Jefferson, David Muoka
Key Losses: TJ Atwood, VJ Holmes
Key Newcomers: Tarig Eisa (JUCO), Lincoln Smith (JUCO), Quinlan Bennett (JUCO), Kasen Harrison

Lineup:

Outlook: In the eleven years before Tic Price took over at Lamar, the program won 10+ games in the Southland just twice, including a galling 4-32 combined record in the two seasons before he was hired. With an assist from a 20-game league slate, Price has now won 10+ in four straight years, doing so last year despite a roster that had been gutted by transfers in the 2019 offseason. That kind of consistency makes me comfortable projecting the Cardinals to remain in the league’s upper half despite the loss of two crucial pieces in VJ Holmes and TJ Atwood.

A large portion of the optimism comes from a defense that could be Price’s best in his Lamar tenure. The Cardinals have always pressured opponents with the goal of forcing turnovers, and returning a pest like Ellis Jefferson to spearhead that system is a huge boost. Jefferson ranked 21st nationally in steal rate, and his quickness at the point of attack sets the tone for the entire Cardinals’ defense. Price will also have some perimeter length with which to work in rising sophomores Anderson Kopp and Ayaan Sohail and JUCO transfer Quinlan Bennett.

Perhaps just as important, the addition of Hong Kong native David Muoka as a rim protector allowed Price to extend with even more confidence. As a thin freshman, Muoka led the SLC and ranked 19th nationally in block rate, and he should be even more dominant on the glass this year. That would be crucial, because the Cardinals collapsed there last year, plummeting from 153rd in defensive rebound rate in 2019 all the way down to 332nd. Versatile forward Avery Sullivan does yeoman work, and JUCO transfer Lincoln Smith should add some physicality on the wing, but a lack of contributions from the guards is really what doomed Lamar’s rebounding.  

That’s a subtweet of Jefferson, Kopp, Sohail, and Davion Buster, all of whom were more eager to leak into the open floor and initiate Price’s transition attack. And to be fair, that’s important: Lamar ranked 12th nationally in rate of possessions finished in transition, per Synergy, attacking downhill whether it be off a make or miss.  

Once in the half court, the Cards will sorely miss Atwood and Holmes for their ability to create mismatches; Atwood, in particular, could use his size and varied skill set to score against all kinds of defenders. Without Holmes’ creation (98th nationally in assist rate, 2nd in the SLC), Buster and Jefferson will shoulder a far more significant burden offensively.

Buster has some pizzazz off the bounce, but he’s most deadly sniping opponents from downtown, having connected on 95 triples at 37.8% last year. Plus, he has a tremendous nickname: just because “Dave and Buster” is an easy association does not make it wrong. Buster’s “eat, drink, play” game clearly gave the Cardinals’ offense a boost when he was on the court:

Kopp and Jefferson were both sub-29% from downtown, so unless freshman Kasen Harrison adds some perimeter pop (unlikely – he’s more of a pure point guard), Buster will essentially be the only outside threat. The offense tilted far too much towards mid-range jumpers as a result, and that issue will likely persist.

A final offensive note: Price often plays through the post, and he brings back his best option there in Sullivan. He must improve as a passer from the block, because the lack of shooting around him may allow foes to hurl double-teams at him without fear.

Bottom Line: Like most Southland squads, Lamar loves to run, and Price has proven he can win consistently with that style. Muoka could unlock an outstanding defense, and the Cardinals surprisingly found a way to pressure without fouling last season. Aside from Buster’s prolific gunning, the offense may struggle with spacing, but if they can get out in transition, they’ll be alright. This isn’t Price’s best team in Beaumont, but it’s yet another highly competitive one capable of tallying double-digit league wins for the 5th straight campaign.

6. Central Arkansas

Key Returners: Rylan Bergersen, DeAndre Jones, Eddy Kayouloud, Jaxson Baker, SK Shittu, Khaleem Bennett (injury), Jared Chatham
Key Losses: Hayden Koval (grad transfer), Aaron Weidenaar
Key Newcomers: Samson George (Pitt), Churchill Bounds, Jonas Munson (redshirt)

Lineup:

Outlook: The Saga of Central Arkansas was a trying one last season, as the Bears got off to a dismal 1-9 start against a challenging schedule (including two overtime losses). Point guard DeAndre Jones got hurt in the fifth contest, and head coach Russ Pennell took a leave of absence before the ninth loss to Pepperdine. Longtime assistant Anthony Boone took over, salvaging a 3-1 start to league play, and the school and Pennell “mutually agreed to part ways” in early January, just as Jones began to find his form again. The Bears meandered to a middling 9-11 finish in Southland play, but a fresh start with more certainty on the sideline – plus returning five of their top six scorers – lends optimism to Boone’s first true year in charge.

As mentioned, Boone has been by Pennell’s side for a while: four years at Grand Canyon (pre-Division I transition), and then five (and change) more at UCA. He even followed Pennell to the WNBA for a year in 2013, helping guide the Phoenix Mercury to a 19-15 record and a playoff appearance. That long history – plus Boone’s tenure last season – indicates that we can expect a fairly consistent stylistic blueprint, which means an offense that wants to push the pace constantly, buoyed by the speedy Jones.

UCA’s floor general has now started 71 career games, and most of the offense centers on his ability to jet up the court and get into gaps. He led the Southland and ranked 6th nationally in assist rate, underscoring his innate sense for setting up his teammates, both in transition and in the half court:

That play encapsulates the total Jones experience – he can get almost anywhere he wants on the court, but he’s a little sloppy with the ball, which is also representative of the team’s shoddy ball control as a whole (346th in turnover rate). He’ll need to cut down his 3.5 turnovers per game as a senior for the team to hit its ceiling.    

The Bears will attack mismatches, particularly with Rylan Bergersen and Eddy Kayouloud, two big wings with intriguing combinations of size and skill. Bergersen found his perimeter stroke as the year went on, and Kayouloud’s ability to attack off the bounce at 6’7, 220 pounds is a real challenge for foes to deal with. Both players showed dominance when allowed to punish smaller opponents in the post; per Synergy, Kayouloud scored in the 98th percentile on the block, with Bergersen not far behind in the 89th. Rising sophomore Jaxson Baker could add a third member to the matchup problem arsenal after starting 26 games in his rookie campaign, but he must evolve into more than just a floor spacer to really stress defenses. The return of 2018-19 starter Khaleem Bennett from injury adds wing depth.

On the other end, the Bears will miss Hayden Koval’s shot-blocking after the seven-footer transferred to UNC Greensboro. He also cleaned the glass, and newcomers Samson George and the incredibly-named Churchill Bounds will be asked to fill the void inside. Veteran SK Shittu has not proven capable of anchoring Boone’s man-to-man through two years, though to be fair, his playing time has been quite limited. The versatility of Kayouloud and Jared Chatham opens up the possibility of playing some small-ball, though that would likely exacerbate the defensive issues.

Boone and the Bears can at least hope for some positive regression from opponents’ scalding three-point shooting, as UCA surrendered a 37.8% success rate from deep, ranking 339th nationally. Outside of Jones, the Bears have the length to contest shots, but Pennell’s defenses always seemed to struggle in this department.

Bottom Line: Like most Southland squads, Central Arkansas is happy to run track meets with its opponents, and that got the Bears into trouble against top-shelf competition, having gone 1-5 ATS as an underdog of 20+ points with an average cover margin of -10.2, per Team Rankings (all six games went over the total, as well). Those struggles notwithstanding, the Bears have a roster that can compete in the Southland, particularly if Jones stays healthy, and Boone has a chance to succeed right off the bat in Conway.

7. McNeese St.

Key Returners: Dru Kuxhausen, A.J. Lawson, Myles Hutchinson, Chris Orlina
Key Losses: Sha’markus Kennedy, Roydell Brown, Trey Johnson (left team), Leondre Washington (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Ra’Shawn Langston (LA Tech), KeyShawn Feazell (Mississippi St.), Carlos Rosario (JUCO), Zach Scott (FGCU), Jordan Henderson, Braelon Bush, Harwin Francois (SIU)***

*** - needs a waiver to play this year

Lineup:

Outlook: As I take over the Southland from my esteemed colleague Ky, these words from his McNeese State conclusion last year ring true: “McNeese has enough raw talent to be a top four Southland team, but I’ve overrated this program almost every year I’ve written the SLC preview.” He smartly ranked the Cowboys 7th last year (they finished T-6th), and that was arguably an underperformance of the team’s talent level.

This year’s roster loses Low-Major Shaq (Sha’markus Kennedy) and a handful of others, but Coach Heath Schroyer lassoed another excellent class of newcomers, meaning the Cowboys are a tantalizing team on paper once again. I will heed Ky’s advice, though, and keep this enticing bunch in the middle of the pack.

Schroyer’s first task will be rebuilding McNeese’s sturdy interior presence. Kennedy and tag team partner Roydell Brown were vicious on both backboards, and Kennedy in particular helped the Cowboys rank 22nd nationally in 2P% offensively. They bombarded the rim, taking 47.1% of their shots inside (5th-most nationally, per hoop-math), and that proclivity helped McNeese rank an impressive 9th in Shot Quality (Dribble Handoff). KeyShawn Feazell brings power conference pedigree to the Southland, and adding JUCO forward Carlos Rosario forms another athletic frontline, but neither is the kind of “go get a bucket” presence that Kennedy was.

Even without Kennedy and Brown in the paint, the Cowboys still have another staple of their offense: running Dru Kuxhausen off a maze-like series of screens. He’s so lethal (125 makes at 45.8%) that it forces scrambling defenses to devote their entire focus to helping close down the prolific sniper. Kuxhausen’s quick release allowed him to find openings even as the attention was all on him, and Schroyer loved simply running him across the formation through a triple screen:

As opponents’ heads turned to track Kuxhausen, it often opened up driving lanes for A.J. Lawson, who was actually the team’s highest-usage player (2nd-highest in the entire conference). The lanky point guard complements Kuxhausen well, as his size enables him to defend wings on the other end in Schroyer’s predominantly man-to-man schemes. He stuffs the stat sheet, but unfortunately, that includes turnovers – he had 127 miscues to 135 assists, contributing heavily to the team’s dismal ranking of 342nd in turnover rate.

Incoming transfers Ra’Shawn Langston and Zach Scott are probably over-qualified as third perimeter options in the Southland, but both had an element of “shooter that doesn’t actually make shots” to them at their previous stops. Veteran Myles Hutchinson actually does make shots, but the competition for backcourt minutes will be fierce. The team’s guard depth and dearth of size – only three healthy players stand above 6’8 – means that Schroyer may run out some smallball lineups with Chris Orlina or even Lawson defending forwards.

Outside of Kuxhausen, the Cowboys have decent length and athleticism in the lineup, and Schroyer will hope that translates into less scalding shooting from opponents. Foes made 37.3% of their threes and 75.3% of their free throws, ranking the McNeese defense 332nd and 339th, respectively. Regression in either number would greatly benefit a team that has struggled mightily to get stops in both of Schroyer’s seasons at the helm.

Bottom Line: Realistically, McNeese has bigger fish to fry than basketball, considering the damage imparted by Hurricane Laura this offseason. But on the court, Schroyer has another talented assemblage of transfers, a roster capable of clawing its way into the competitive top tier of the Southland. Considering previous failures to make that ascent, though, it’s hard to set that as the expectation.

8. Northwestern St.

Key Returners: Jairus Roberson, Trenton Massner, Jamaure Gregg, Brian White, C.J. Jones, Jovan Zelenbaba, LaTerrance Reed (injury), Larry Owens
Key Losses: Chudier Bile (grad transfer), Nikos Chougkaz (pro)
Key Newcomers: Carvell Teasett, Kendal Coleman, Jordan Potts (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Mike McConathy has accomplished some remarkable feats since arriving at Northwestern State in 1999 – beating Iowa on a stunning buzzer beater in the 2006 NCAA Tournament comes to mind – but last year’s 11-9 (T-4th) finish in the Southland ranks right up there. Saddled with a roster that was both small (345th nationally in average height) and inexperienced playing together (326th in minutes continuity), Northwestern State was picked a distant 12th in the league by both 3MW and the league’s coaches/SIDs. However, with some pinpoint perimeter shooting and surprisingly stout interior defense, McConathy’s mob vastly outperformed expectations, and they were still alive in the postseason when basketball shut down.

Sure, the Demons didn’t win a Division I game outside of the conference, but let’s focus on the positives here!

McConathy’s next trick will be to recreate last year’s Southland-leading 2P% defense without the team’s top two interior defenders, both of whom departed before exhausting their eligibility. Team MVP Chudier Bile is now a Georgetown Hoya, and promising young big Nikos Chougkaz opted to go pro in his native Greece rather than return to Natchitoches (oddly enough, his twin Robert Chougkaz made the trek back to the states). Jamaure Gregg prevents an immediate drop-off after eating on the glass last year and logging nine starts, but McConathy will need immediate contributions from Kendal Coleman, a bouncy freshman big. Larry Owens, a 300-pound wide load in the paint, will occupy space and finish inside, but he may not be able to play extended stretches at the team’s swift tempo.

Fortunately, even if the defense isn’t quite on par with last year’s squad, the offense might offset that with its formidable arsenal of perimeter threats. Jairus Roberson and Trenton Massner make for a deadly wing pairing, and the Demons also get LaTerrance Reed back from a knee injury that claimed most of his 2019-20 campaign. All three have extensive starting experience, giving McConathy some flexibility with how he deploys lineups. Israeli Jovan Zelenbaba and incoming JUCO transfer Jordan Potts add more shooting – if either can even crack the rotation.

The aforementioned tempo will be dictated by a two-headed point guard platoon, as Brian White and CJ Jones basically alternated time on the floor. Both players are adept at getting into the teeth of the defense to draw multiple defenders, opening up the wing shooters and forcing opponents into rotations. Unsurprisingly, the defense suffers somewhat when the 5’6 White runs the show, while Jones’ lack of offensive pop hurts on the other end:

Both veterans will be challenged by freshman Carvell Teasett, a well-regarded recruit who helped lead prep powerhouse Scotlandville Magnet HS to an 88-4 record over the last two years (the school has now won four straight state titles). Teasett could be a more complete player than the incumbents, so McConathy will have to smartly juggle those minutes (expect Teasett to play off the ball at times, as well.

Bottom Line: McConathy has had an erratic tenure in Natchitoches – the Demons chart of KenPom ratings over the past decade is a roller coaster:

Despite the premature losses of Bile and Chougkaz, though, this appears to be a program on the upswing (or at least cresting). The offense should be deadly with such a deep and skilled backcourt, so the defense needs only to avoid sinking into the D-I depths to enable a middle of the pack Southland finish. And McConathy is plenty capable of elevating the Demons right back towards the top four…

9. New Orleans

Key Returners: Troy Green, Damion Rosser (injury), Jahmel Myers, Ahren Freeman, Lamont Berzat
Key Losses: Bryson Robinson, Gerrale Gates (transfer), Jaylen Key
Key Newcomers: Derek St. Hilaire (Jacksonville St.), LaDarius Marshall (JUCO), Bol Tong (JUCO), D’Ante Bell, Jay Rodgers, Kmani Dougherty (redshirt)

Lineup:

Outlook: The fall from the top is the farthest, and the Privateers felt every single bump, bruise, and body ache from that tumble. Selected atop the Southland preseason poll, New Orleans had plenty of optimism to start the year, but a rash of injuries repeatedly scrambled Coach Mark Slessinger’s rotation, to the point that he eventually used 14 different starting lineups in 30 games. The Privateers plummeted to a dismal T-11th in the Southland, and their five league wins were the first season with fewer than 11 since 2015-16.

Of course, while injuries certainly had an impact, the players still on the court simply did not defend well enough to win consistently. It was the worst group on that end in Slessinger’s eight-year tenure, and the most notable collapse came in the paint, where offenses suddenly feasted:

In a league where the predominant scoring strategy is “assault the rim with reckless abandon,” that drop-off was especially harmful.

The Privateers sorely lacked size, and even 6’8 forward Jaylen Key wasn’t putting up much resistance inside. That means freshman D’Ante Bell and JUCO transfers LaDarius Marshall and Bol Tong all have wide open routes to playing time. Bell is probably the most physically gifted of the bunch, but Marshall’s tremendous paint productivity at Hinds Community College (7.8 RPG, 2.5 BPG) likely gives him the early edge for minutes. He doesn’t solve the height issue, but he’s the best rim protector on the roster. UNO also got destroyed on the glass, but that’s a commonality for all Slessinger squads.

The healthy return of Damion Rosser will also be crucial; he’s the team’s most versatile defender, a 220-pound wing who can guard a variety of foes thanks to his strength and anticipation. In his most recent healthy year, he ranked 11th in the Southland in block rate and 12th in steal rate, and his absence was a massive part of last year’s defensive disaster.

The Privateers also missed Rosser’s powerful frame as part of Slessinger’s downhill offensive attack, where he’s been able to draw contact and finish against smaller Southland guards. He’ll pair with veteran Troy Green to give New Orleans an incredibly physical backcourt that will leave opponents in the ice bath after games. Green ranked 121st nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, and his own 215-pound frame makes him a nightmare matchup for most of the league’s backcourts.

Slessinger also added Derek St. Hilaire from Jacksonville State, a potentially impactful scoring threat, and has diminutive Lamont Berzat available off the bench as more of a jitterbug type guard. The change in style from Berzat to Green may give opponents whiplash, though the best alignment is probably when both take the court together:

Berzat’s tremendous quickness makes him an excellent instigator in Slessinger’s defense, which desperately needs turnovers to survive and offset the dearth of rebounding.

The Privateers’ offense suffers from an acute lack of spacing, ranking in the bottom 10 nationally in 3PA rate for six straight years, and that issue may be especially pronounced this year following the graduation of Bryson Robinson, the only player to even attempt more than 56 threes last year. Put another way: Robinson made 87 threes last year; the rest of the team made 68 combined. St. Hilaire and freshman Jay Rodgers may help somewhat, but trying to out-physical foes with ‘tweener forwards like Ahren Freeman and Jahmel Myers may end up being the (inefficient) default. Freeman is the one to watch there after tallying double-digits seven times as a freshman; he just needs to bring more consistency.

Bottom Line: I’m quite confident that UNO’s defense will be better this year: Rosser is a difference-maker on that end, Marshall can bother foes at the rim, and the roster’s overall depth will be much better. But the half-court offense will be a grind at best, an outright eyesore at worst, limiting my willingness to bank on an immediate resurgence back up the Southland standings. Slessinger is a smart dude, though, so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if I’m too low here.

10. Texas A&M Corpus Christi

Key Returners: Myles Smith, Jordan Hairston, Nolan Bertain, Peyton Smith, Perry Francois
Key Losses: Jashawn Talton-Thomas, Elijah Schmidt, Tony Lewis
Key Newcomers: Cyrie Coates (JUCO), Rasheed Browne (JUCO), Simeon Fryer (JUCO), De’Lazarus Keys (JUCO), Lado Loku, Jalen Myers

Lineup:

Outlook: Having not written the Southland yet in our site history, I need to finally express my adulation for the Corpus Christi color scheme. There’s just something pleasant about the blue with green trim (FGCU also warrants mention here):

The “Islanders” is also a terrific and unique nickname, so Texas A&M-CC is really doing everything right off the court.

On the court, though, it’s been a roller coaster under current boss Willis Wilson. After early struggles while finding his coaching footing, he built a winner, including the honor of being the only SLC squad to defeat Stephen F. Austin during the Brad Underwood era. Recently, though, the Islanders have found themselves on the Treadmill of Mediocrity:

If they’re going to outrun that run-of-the-mill reputation, it will be via the potent backcourt of Myles Smith and Jordan Hairston, two high-usage scorers who both connected on more than 40% of their triples.

Of course, “outrun” was probably a poor choice of words for the Islanders, as their deliberate tempo stands in stark contrast against the rest of the conference’s up-tempo preferences. Smith (pictured above in those outstanding uniforms) is a key cog, the team’s best creator and a quick guard capable of getting into gaps. JUCO transfer Rasheed Browne adds another creator who averaged an impressive 9.2 APG, hopefully reducing Smith’s workload, and his 44.6% three-point shooting adds another threat from deep.

Hairston, Nolan Bertain, Peyton Smith, and Javae Lampkins will all benefit from Smith and Browne’s penetration, and they form a deadly coalition of perimeter gunners – TAMU-CC shot a lethal 37.3% from downtown, good for impressive 14th nationally. Hairston is a future (and maybe current) star; he really caught fire down the stretch after missing most of the non-conference season with typhus fever.

Replacing Jashawn Talton-Thomas will be vital too, though. He became a hub for the offense on the block, and Wilson’s offense always relies heavily on post play. Perry Francois and JUCO transfer De’Lazarus Keys have only been complementary pieces to this point in their careers, though Francois has flashed some intriguing skills inside. Burly forward Jalen White is probably most similar to Talton-Thomas physically, and if he makes the typical freshman-to-sophomore progression, he could be a sneaky breakout candidate in Wilson’s system.

The offense isn’t going anywhere unless it can solve its galling turnover issues. The Islanders ranked dead last nationally in turnover rate, with basically every member of the roster being a culprit. In a conference where most defenses need steals to survive, Texas A&M-CC made that all to easy. Adding Browne alongside Smith should help spread the ball-handling responsibilities out, but it takes a collective mindset to better value the ball.

Defensively, Wilson’s man-to-man scheme did a nice job of running foes off the three-point line and forcing them into the mid-range, an important shift after surrendering high volumes of triples the previous three years. Versatile wings and JUCO teammates Cyrie Coates and Simeon Fryer provide key connectors between the roster’s smaller shooters and bigger post players, giving it some versatility to match up with the athletic slashers that abound in the Southland.

Bottom Line: If Hairston takes the star turn of which he’s capable and the Islanders clean up their turnover issues somewhat, this ranking may be too low. Wilson has proven he can win in this league, and his half-court style is often a difficult wrinkle for opponents who are used to getting easy buckets in transition. But the recent mediocrity has me hesitant, and there’s several well-coached and talented squads ahead of the Islanders in my rankings for now.

Tier 4

11. Southeastern Louisiana

Key Returners: Pape Diop, Brandon Gonzalez, Byron Smith, Nick Caldwell, Isaiah Kirby
Key Losses: Ty Brewer (transfer), Von Julien, Maxwell Starwood, Laquan Butler (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Keon Clergeot (UMass), Joe Kasperzyk (JUCO), Gus Okafor (JUCO), Avery Wilson (BC), Jamon Kemp, Max Brackmann (redshirt), Elijah Ifejeh (UL Monroe)

Lineup:

Outlook: The Lions suffered the devastation of losing their two best players (Marlain Veal and Moses Greenwood) as well as its coach (Jay Ladner) last offseason, and the results were predictably rough. SELA finished a game above the Southland cellar, and it tanked on both sides of the ball. Offseason attrition bit the Lions once again this offseason, with the transfer portal robbing them of their best player again (Ty Brewer). That means that David Kiefer – the Ladner assistant who took over his old boss’s job – has his work cut out for him once again.

In a somewhat surprising move for an in-house hire, Kiefer made significant changes on the defensive end. He unleashed a full-court press on 28% of possessions, which was the 11th-highest rate in the country and a huge increase from when Ladner was in charge (7% in 2018-19). That pressure translated to turnovers, but the Lions were slaughtered in the paint, surrendering 68.8% shooting at the rim – 349th nationally, per Hoop Math – and ranking 342nd in defensive rebound rate.

Brewer was the team’s best defensive rebounder, meaning Pape Diop and Nick Caldwell will need to double their efforts on the glass. ULM transfer Elijah Ifejeh adds some bulk, but unless 7’2 German project Max Brackmann is ready for minutes, the Lions may lack some roar inside once again.

That reinforces the importance of turning opponents over, which the Lions do differently than most pressing teams. They don’t rank highly in steal rate; instead, it’s non-steal turnovers – travels, errant passes, stepping out of bounds, etc. – that fuel their efforts. That is a carry-over from Ladner’s tenure:

Regardless of how the turnovers occur, though, the Lions need depth to roll out Kiefer’s extended schemes. To that end, he made important inroads this offseason, reeling in several guards who should be able to play right away.

Keon Clergeot started his career at Memphis, and after a couple up-and-down years at UMass, he could be an impactful scorer in the Southland. JUCO transfers Gus Okafor and Joe Kasperzyk also have had well-traveled college careers already, beginning at Longwood and Bryant, respectively, and both should make an impact at their new digs. Okafor’s versatility is a perfect fit for the defensive scheme, and Kasperzyk adds another smooth shooter to the perimeter group.

Clergeot, Kasperzyk, and Avery Wilson will combine with returning starter Byron Smith to give Kiefer more experience and offensive pop. Wilson received the classic “he tore up practices” praise while sitting out last season, and the former BC recruit is a built like a tank. SELA’s guards dragged the offense down last year, turning the ball over at alarming rates and not making enough jumpers, so an infusion of new talent can only help. Brandon Gonzalez, a long wing with a bevy of experience, should be relegated to “microwave gunner off the bench” after launching shots at the Southland’s highest frequency last season.

Bottom Line: Kiefer’s decision to extend full-court last year seemed to hurt the defense, surrendering more – and easier – shots at the rim as the Lions played at a more frenzied pace. He’ll hope that greater athleticism and depth on the perimeter will prevent such a layup line, and the numerous new pieces in the backcourt should lift the anemic offense somewhat, as well. Still, it looks like SELA has a ways to go under its new boss unless Wilson and Clergeot really take the league by storm.

12. Incarnate Word

Key Returners: Keaston Willis, Drew Lutz, Marcus Larsson, Des Balentine, Brandon Swaby, Cody Graham (redshirt)
Key Losses: Dwight Murray (transfer), Vincent Miszkiewicz (transfer), Augustine Ene (transfer), Morgan Taylor (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Bradley Akhile (JUCO), Josh Morgan, Dakota Reber, Godsgift Ezedinma, Logan Bracamonte, Thomas Zevgaras

Lineup:

Outlook: After being the unanimous pick to finish last in the Southland before 2019-20 (by 3MW, Blue Ribbon, and the league’s own preseason poll), a 6-14 record and 10th-place finish should probably be classified as a success. Despite an insanely youthful roster (352nd in experience), Carson Cunningham’s second season saw sweeping improvement on the defensive end after an abysmal 2019, and more progress could come via cleaning up some sloppiness on the offensive end.

Perhaps most impressive about that subtle move up the standings was the heavy reliance on the freshman class, rather than the promising sophomore/juniors as many anticipated. Keaston Willis (the Southland’s Freshman of the Year), Drew Lutz, and Marcus Larsson all impressed in their rookie campaigns, and they’ll form the core of Cunningham’s third UIW squad. On the other hand, though, several of the upperclassmen left town after taking back seats to the youngsters, and the Cardinals will once again be an extremely young squad primarily reliant on freshmen and sophomores.

In Lutz and Willis, UIW has a potent backcourt duo for years to come, and their complementary skills feature well in Cunningham’s system. Lutz is the floor general, facilitating the offense via pick-and-rolls and forcing opponents to collapse when he gets into gaps, and Willis is a gunner, burying 81 triples as a rookie. They can flip roles in a pinch (Lutz can shoot, Willis has a decent off-the-bounce game), and as both build out their games, the UIW offense will gain potency. Cunningham is one of the few Southland coaches who plays a mostly methodical style offensively, so having multiple players who can create for themselves or others in the half court is vital.

Unfortunately, the Cardinals lacked any semblance of an outside threat beyond those two, as Des Balentine and Brandon Swaby are far more adept as drivers and defenders. Cody Graham missed all of last season, but he probably isn’t the answer as a shooter, so freshmen Josh Morgan and Dakota Reber will have chances to earn minutes if they can stretch the floor.  

The Norwegian Larsson anchors the paint, though he wasn’t a go-to option offensively as a freshman. The lanky lefty could conceivably add some moves to his arsenal; his touch isn’t bad. He’ll be flanked by injury-prone Bryce Davis and an army of freshman forwards, all of whom will be tasked with replacing Vincent Miszkiewicz’s dominant two-way rebounding. JUCO transfer Bradley Akhile will also be in that competition for minutes, though he didn’t show the necessary fervor on the glass at Gillette College last season. Of the freshmen, Godsgift Ezedinma is certaintly the best-named, and the bouncy Texas native may also be the best bet for an immediate role, although Greek Thomas Zevgaras could pair with Larsson in an all-Euro frontcourt.

UIW’s biggest issue defensively was how frequently opponents go to the rim, particularly in transition. Larsson’s length is only so useful when he’s facing a constant barrage of drivers, and Miszkiewicz’s shot-blocking will be missed. It’s hard to say that “more experience” will fix that, because UIW may once again be extremely young if multiple freshmen crack the rotation.

Bottom Line: Having a duo like Lutz and Willis definitely makes the Cardinals dangerous on any given night, and the Cardinals should steal a few conference games against higher-performing foes when they’re both on. UIW’s youth, depth, defense, and complementary scoring options are all major question marks, though, so it’s hard to project the Cardinals to maintain last season’s upward trajectory. Cunningham has 2021-22 and 2022-23 circled, though, provided he can keep his key pieces in San Antonio.

13. Houston Baptist

Key Returners: Jason Thompson (injury), Myles Pierre, Ty Dalton, Ryan Gomes, Phillip McKenzie
Key Losses: Ian Dubose (grad transfer), Jalon Gates, Qon Murphy (transfer), Ben Uloko (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Pedro Castro (JUCO), Darius Lee (JUCO), Brycen Long, Cameron Hart (JUCO), Hunter Janacek (JUCO/redshirt), Tay Boothman, Jade Tse (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Houston Baptist kicked off the season with a respectable 80-72 loss at Tulsa, even leading 53-47 with 14 minutes remaining. It was a noble effort from a team picked 9th in the Southland, especially considering that Tulsa ended up tied atop the AAC standings.

That was November 5th. The next time HBU surrendered fewer than 95 points to an opponent was January 22nd (!!!), and by that point, the Huskies were 1-15 overall (5-11 against the spread). Perhaps more damning, 13 of their 15 post-Tulsa games went over the point total, a further indictment against the Huskies’ radioactive waste of a defense.  

It was the worst such unit in HBU’s Division I history (which dates back to 2008-09), and I’d wager that it’s the worst of the entire Ron Cottrell era in Houston, who arrived in 1990. The court became a layup line for the Huskies’ opponents, as they allowed scalding shooting at all three levels: 352nd at the rim, 350th in the mid-range, 349th from deep. HBU also ranked 353rd (dead last) in effective field goal percentage allowed in transition – and 343rd in frequency of those chances. I’d include a picture of their defensive shot chart, but I don’t want this preview flagged for graphic and inappropriate material.

So, uh, what now? Well, history suggests it can only get better on that end. Cottrell’s defenses are rarely much to write home about, but they typically force more turnovers than last year’s did, and opponents can’t make shots if they don’t have the ball. Myles Pierre and Ty Dalton have the physical tools to at least be bothersome defensively, and the Huskies were “less awful” when 6’10 center Ryan Gomes was on the court to get in the way in the paint.

What’s really worrying, though, is that HBU may not have a relatively potent offense (#3 in the Southland!) on which to rely. Do-everything guard Ian DuBose fled to the ACC, while sniper Jalon Gates graduated and versatile wing Qon Murphy transferred to New Hampshire. That trio constituted the Huskies’ three best offensive players last year. Oh, and efficient big men Benjamin Uloko and Jackson Stent are both gone, too.

That leaves Pierre and Dalton to facilitate, an area in which they proved competent – except for the rash of turnovers they coughed up. Freshman Za-Ontay “Tay” Boothman may be given the keys to the shoddy bullet train of an offense from day one, and JUCO transfers Darius Lee and Pedro Castro will likely be forced into prominent scoring roles, as well. Freshman Brycen Long will add shooting, but the degree of turnover – and the net talent decrease – means that Cottrell’s transition attack won’t have the same kind of threats leading the charge.

Getting Jason Thompson and Hunter Janacek back to full health would provide a couple needed boosts. Thompson flashed impressive potential during a four-game stint in the middle of the year, posting 19 points and seven rebounds in his only start while unveiling an impressive inside-out arsenal, and Janacek might be the team’s best shooter.

Bottom Line: I fear for Houston Baptist this season. The defense could get a lot better and still be in the bottom 15 in the country, and the offense has the potential to plummet without DuBose, Gates, and Murphy. Hopefully, Boothman shows major promise in a significant role as a freshman, and Cottrell can hope that a core of him, Pierre, and Thompson can ascend the standings in the coming years.