Ky McKeon

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Ty Gordon, R Sr., Nicholls State
Coach of the Year: Austin Claunch, Nicholls State
Newcomer of the Year: Antonio Gordon, Jr., Southeastern Louisiana
Freshman of the Year: Emareyon McDonald, Fr., Northwestern State

Tier 1

1. Nicholls State 

Key Returners: Ty Gordon, Ryghe Lyons, Pierce Spencer
Key Losses: Najee Garvin, Andre Jones, Kevin Johnson, Jaylen Fornes, Jeremiah Buford, Damien Sears
Key Newcomers: Devante Carter (Norfolk State), Caleb Huffman (Central Michigan), Manny Littles (North Alabama), Latrell Jones (Portland), Edoardo Del Cadia (UNLV), Jalen White (Ohio), Emmanuel Little (DII)

Lineup:

Outlook: Austin Claunch is building a Southland juggernaut at Nicholls. Thanks in part to an imbalanced COVID schedule, Nicholls won the Southland last season with a 14-2 record, barely edging out Abilene Christian by a half game and avoiding them altogether in conference play. Abilene torched the Colonels in the Southland conference tournament by 34, but let’s not focus on that.

Nicholls has now finished inside the KenPom top 200 two straight seasons, and Claunch has led his squad to an immaculate 29-7 Southland mark during that span. With four of the Texas schools heading over to the WAC, Nicholls suddenly becomes the heavy favorite to represent the league in the NCAA Tournament.

The transfer market is king in Thibodaux. Current South Alabama coach Richie Riley started the trend and Claunch has continued it – the Colonels load up on transfers each and every offseason. Only three players return from last year’s squad, but Claunch adds seven transfers (six from the DI ranks) to replace their production. Nicholls was the oldest team in the country last season and will be up there once again – eight of its top players are upperclassmen, seven of which are seniors or 5th years.

Claunch brings back his starting bookends from a year ago: Ty Gordon at point guard and Ryghe Lyons at center. Gordon was a 1st Team All-SLC selection and Southland Newcomer of the Year following his transfer from Troy. He was a major reason the Colonels had the best offensive TO rate in the league and is a dangerous scorer and shooter. Per Synergy, Gordon scored 1.008 PPP off ball screens last year, good for the 92nd percentile nationally. He will be the focal point of Claunch’s pick-n-roll attack.

Lyons is the team leader and the only 5-year Nicholls player on the roster. He ranked 4th last season in the Southland in block rate and 3rd in OR%. He’s a solid finisher on the block and serves as an interior anchor defensively.

Nicholls’ other returner is sophomore guard Pierce Spencer, a solid two-way player who should see significant time this season despite the incoming transfer group.

Now onto the transfers.

In the backcourt, Claunch adds Norfolk State guard Devante Carter, Central Michigan guard Caleb Huffman, Portland wing Latrell Jones, and Ohio wing Jalen White. Carter is the crown jewel of the bunch, a 2nd Team All-MEAC performer with the Spartans last season. The Montverde Academy alum was Norfolk’s best player in ’20-21 and will give the Nicholls a deadly dual-PG look if he starts alongside Gordon.

Like Gordon, Carter doesn’t turn the ball over. He posted nearly a 28% assist rate and a sub-15% TO rate last season. He’s a hard-nosed slasher and certified bucket-getter.

Speaking of buckets, Huffman will add plenty for the Colonels this season. He started five of the last six games for CMU but scored in droves whether starting or coming off the pine. One performance that sticks out was his 30-point spectacle against a DII opponent in just 19 minutes of playing time. Huffman is probably best used as an instant offense type player off the bench – he needs the ball in his hands and takes a ton of shots. In ’20-21 he ranked 3rd in the MAC in usage.

Jones was a starter for a bad Portland team and likely starts for Nicholls as well. He’s a good athlete and a lockdown defender. Jones is the perfect option at the 3 due to his ability to contribute to every facet of the game while on the floor. White didn’t play a ton of minutes for Ohio, but he’s a knockdown shooter who will add length to the perimeter.

Up front, Claunch welcomes Emanuel “Manny” Littles from North Alabama, the similarly named Emmanuel Little from DII Southern Indiana, and big man Edoardo Del Cadia from UNLV. Little led the ASUN in RPG last season and ranked 4th in OR% and 2nd in DR%. That will be his role at Nicholls: grab every rebound possible. While he could start at the 4, Littles might be better off as the backup 5. Instead, Little, a 6’6” combo forward could be better suited to lineup next to Lyons. Little is a talented player who can rebound and score.

Del Cadia played a good amount for UNLV last season and started six games. Over the last three games of the season, Del Cadia averaged nearly 10 PPG. He’ll add more rebounding, low post scoring, and a little face-up game to the fold.

Claunch’s freshmen are unlikely to contribute right away. Ryan Maxwell is a long wing who can guard multiple spots. Jon’Quarius McGhee can play either guard spot. Mekhi Collins adds size but needs some seasoning before earning consistent minutes.

Nicholls runs a simple system, which makes sense given its constant turnover year-over-year. The Colonels like to run in the open floor and were the Southland’s fastest team last season from an average possession length standpoint. Like most Southland squads, NSU attacks the rim, but the Colonels shot less free throws than their cohorts, ranking just 11th in the league in FT rate. That was likely a good thing given NSU was dead last in the league in FT% (66.7% - a number that should improve in ’21-22). In the halfcourt, Claunch likes to let his talented guards work off ball screens. Gordon and Carter should feast on this year’s conference competition.

Defensively Nicholls was solid last season. It forced teams to play in isolation, allowing the lowest assist rate in the league. The Colonels also forced opponents to use a ton of clock, which is frustrating for most league foes and not in line with their gameplans. Claunch likes to extend fullcourt pressure a decent amount, and his team was excellent shutting down transition last season. Though this is a new team, NSU still figures to be good on this end in ’21-22. There’s plenty of athleticism and length, plus Lyons is one of the best rim protectors in the Southland.

Bottom Line: Nicholls is the clear runaway favorite to win the Southland this season. Claunch already has two top three league finishes in his three seasons as head coach, and now he looks to get his program back to the Big Dance for the first time since 1998.

Tier 2

2. Southeastern Louisiana

Key Returners: Keon Clergeot, Gus Okafor, Joe Kasperzyk, Nick Caldwell
Key Losses: Isiah Kirby, Pape Diop, Elijah Ifejeh, Byron Smith
Key Newcomers: Antonio Gordon (Kansas State), Jalyn Hinton (DII), Avery Wilson (Boston College / Redshirt), Ryan Burkhardt (North Florida), Roscoe Eastmond (Denver), Roger McFarlane (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: SLU endured a semi-disappointing 2020-21 season. Expectations weren’t necessarily high for a team that suffered heavy turnover and was led by a second-year head coach with an abbreviated offseason. The Lions finished 5-11 in Southland play, making them 10-26 overall in David Kiefer’s two seasons.

Kiefer is looking to get his program back to its performance during its hay-day under current Southern Miss head coach Jay Ladner. He brings back his four best players from last season and brings in a super-talented transfer class. Barring injuries, a finish outside the top three in this year’s Southland would be a massive letdown.

The talent on this roster is good enough to compete for a Southland title. Keon Clergeot leads the way, a former UMass transfer who also spent time at Memphis as a freshman. Clergeot is one of the best scorers and playmakers in the league (frankly, it is a bit shocking he wasn’t on an All-SLC team in 2021), and the very best at earning trips to the foul line. Last season Clergeot led the league in FT rate and ranked 6th nationally, attempting a whopping 192 free throws. He’s strong, quick, and able to get past any defender in isolation or off ball screens.

Clergeot and fellow returner Joe Kasperzyk will share primary ball handling duties. Kasperzyk began his career at Bryant before playing a season in the JUCO ranks. He’s a quick, smooth lead guard with outstanding hair, but he needs to improve on his ball security and a career 25% 3P clip against DI competition.

Gus Okafor and Nick Caldwell are the two returning frontcourt stalwarts. Okafor is a do-everything wing who transferred to SLU from Longwood prior to last season. He can shoot, drive, rebound, and defend. His strength and plus athleticism give him an edge against most SLC foes, but, like Kasperzyk, his efficiency needs to improve. Okafor took a lot of bad shots last season, something that just isn’t necessary with the talent level of his teammates. Caldwell is a steady forward who ranked inside the top ten in both OR% and DR% in conference play last season. He’s a solid defender and can score from all three levels.

Max Brackmann, a 7’2” German, and JonDarius Warren, a former walk-on who started four times last year, round out the returners who might see PT this season. These two could have a hard time finding minutes in ’21-22 with Kiefer’s excellent incoming transfer class.

Two of Kiefer’s transfers could form SLU’s starting frontcourt on day one. Antonio Gordon, a Kansas State defect, and Jalyn Hinton, a DII transfer who also played two seasons at Jacksonville, will pair up to form one of the better frontcourt duos in the league. Gordon started 12 games for K State last year and could be one of the best players in the Southland in ’21-22, let alone best forwards. He’ll dominate the glass on both ends and be a weapon offensively on the block. Hinton averaged a double-double in DII and won his league’s POY and DPOY awards. He’s an athletic forward who can score off the bounce or in the post, and he ranked 5th in block rate in the ASUN two consecutive seasons while at Jacksonville.

In the backcourt, two transfers will see plenty of run and challenge for starts. Boston College import Avery Wilson hasn’t played since 2018-19, but Kiefer told Blue Ribbon he could have been SLU’s leading scorer last season. Wilson tore his ACL prior to last year but should be good to go this season. Ryan Burkhardt comes to Hammond by way of North Florida where he was a member of the “Birds of Trey”. As the moniker suggests, Burkhardt is a 3-point sniper who has canned 40% of his career 3P tries. In four seasons, Burkhardt has attempted 324 3s to just 25 2s and 21 FTs.

Denver transfer Roscoe Eastmond will serve as a backup PG. He’s a true point guard in the sense he doesn’t look to score, but rather to facilitate. He led the Summit in assist rate last year but also posted a 30% TO rate. JUCO transfer Roger McFarlane could see some run, as well. He was a well-regarded recruit coming out of high school and is a very good rebounder for his wing position.

As Clergeot’s insane FT stats indicate, SLU did most of its offensive damage from the foul line on 2020-21. Only four teams in the country scored a higher percentage of their total points from the charity stripe in ’20-21, a result of SLU’s ability to get to the line… and also a consequence of its poor shooting from everywhere else. While the Lions took smart shots for the most part (i.e. rim looks and 3s), their shooting percentages were awful from everywhere. Hopefully that corrects itself in ’21-22.

Defensively, SLU was a sieve last season despite strong rebounding and turnover numbers. The Lions allowed too many open looks from the perimeter, were beat in transition, and allowed opponents to shoot over 66% near the rim. Gordon and Hinton’s arrivals should help shore up SLU’s poor interior defense, and Kiefer told Blue Ribbon Hinton, “will be the ultimate weapon in our press”. SLU pressed at a top 50 rate last season, and they have the athletes and depth to increase that rate this season.

Bottom Line: Southeastern Louisiana might be the only team in the Southland who can come close to matching Nicholls’ talent level. Clergeot, Gordon, and Hinton could be three of the best players in the conference, and so could Wilson if fully healthy and ready from a two-year hiatus. In a softer Southland, SLU is a major player for the crown.

3. New Orleans   

Key Returners: Troy Green, Derek St. Hilaire, Rodney Carson Jr., Jahmel Myers, Kmani Doughty, D’Ante Bell
Key Losses: Damion Rosser, Lamont Berzat, Ahren Freeman, LaDarius Marshall
Key Newcomers: De’Sean Allen-Eikens (North Dakota), Tyson Jackson (Middle Tennessee), Daniel Sackey (Valparaiso), Robby Robinson (Nevada), Simeon Kirkland (UAB)

Lineup:

Outlook: Record-wise New Orleans got back on track a little last season when it finished 8-7 in league play. Mark Slessinger had the Privateers on top of the conference for a 3-year stretch, going 36-18 from 2017 – 2019. In 2020 the bottom fell out. Injuries and perhaps just lack of talent led to UNO finishing 5-15 in the Southland, an uncharacteristic mark.

As we like to do in these preseason previews, we have caveats on UNO’s moderate success last season. New Orleans won a grand total of zero games last year against teams who finished inside the KenPom top 300. The Privateers also didn’t have to play Abilene Christian (the best team in the league) or Sam Houston State (a top 4 SLC squad). Per KenPom only two Southland squads played a lighter schedule than UNO. That 8-7 record looks a tad worse with those glasses on.

New season, new league. Four of the best programs in the Southland are gone from a year ago leaving the door wide open for a team like New Orleans, who has been at the top previously and is led by one of the better coaches in the conference. There’s solid talent coming back, and Slessinger adds five transfers who should all make an impact on the lineup in one way or another.

Size was a major issue for UNO last season. Per KenPom the Privateers were the smallest team in the country of those who played a game last year. Slessinger clearly recognized that problem and set out to solve it via the transfer portal.

Three true bigs join the fold in Middle Tennessee’s Tyson Jackson, Nevada’s Robby Robinson, and UAB’s Simeon Kirkland. Before even considering their individual talents, UNO should benefit from the sheer fact they stand 6’9”, 6’8”, and 6’10”. Jackson started twice for the Blue Raiders last year and 22 games as a freshman. He’s a massive post-man who can offer rim protection and rebounding. Robinson is a versatile defender who, like Jackson, started a few times last season but was a full-time starter as a rookie. Though he’s super low usage on offense, Robinson brings value as a rebounder and garbageman. Kirkland seldom saw the floor at UAB following a transfer from the JUCO ranks. He’s another hustler Slessinger can plug into the lineup when his key guys need a blow.

Freshman Darrius Washington, a 3-star recruit, could also play a role in the frontcourt at some point this season. He adds more size and length to the lineup.

North Dakota transfer De’Sean Allen-Eikens is Slessinger’s biggest get from the transfer portal. DAE played just five games for the Fighting Hawks last season, but he was one of the better players in the Summit League as a freshman.

Look for DAE to play the 3 and 4 in multiple lineups; he can score from all three levels and defend multiple spots.

Returning frontcourt pieces Jahmel Myers and D’Ante Bell should maintain key roles in the rotation. Myers started 18 games last season and offers value as a physical, athletic, paint-bound forward. At 6’6” he lacks top-line size to play the 5 effectively, but he’s more than strong enough to occupy the 4-spot and bang in the post. Bell started the final eight games last season but played over 10 minutes just once. He was a walking foul when he saw the floor last year, averaging 9.1 fouls per 40 minutes. The talent and potential are clearly there for Bell – he’s gifted both athletically and physically and could have a breakout year now fully healthy (if he can stay out of foul trouble).

New Orleans’ dynamic duo in the backcourt is Troy Green and Derek St. Hilaire, who project to be two of the Southland’s better scorers this season. Green is in his 5th season and will act as a leader on and off the floor. He can run point or play off the ball and use his strength to bully defenders to the rim or attack them in the low post. St. Hilaire, also in his 5th collegiate season though he spent two at Jacksonville State, is more of a shooter than Green. DSH shot over 40% from 3 last year, huge for a team that generally ignores the outside shot. Like Green DSH can play either guard spot, and he’s a sneaky athlete in a 6-foot package:

Rodney Carson Jr. is back to compete for starts on the wing. He started 15 times last season and led the Southland in 2PFG%. Carson takes good shots and adds more athleticism to the fold. Fellow returner Kmani Doughty has his moments as a freshman last season. He’s a versatile wing who can shoot the 3. Freshman wing Jamond Vincent will add depth to the wing; he’s an athlete who can play above the rim.

Valpo transfer Daniel Sackey will push Carson for that third starting guard spot and maintain the squad’s ball-handling level when Green or DSH is off the floor. Sackey was a starter at Valpo where he ranked 4th in the Missouri Valley in assist rate and 6th in steal rate as a junior. He’ll look to improve on his efficiency – thus far he’s not turned in an O-rating above 90.6 through three seasons.

Given this appears to be one of Slessinger’s deeper teams, he’ll likely look to maintain his breakneck pace offensively. The Privateers look to score in transition when they can, ranking 17th nationally in shot attempts in transition per Synergy last season. As alluded to earlier, UNO doesn’t shoot a lot of 3s, preferring instead to attack the rim and get close-proximity shots or earn trips to the foul line. Per Hoop-Math, UNO ranked 50th nationally in FGA% at the rim last season and 27th in FG%.

Defensively, UNO was just so-so last season relative to other SLC teams, but a lot of that had to do with a lack of size and depth in the frontcourt. With Jackson, Robinson, and Kirkland in the rotation suddenly UNO is deep up front and has enough to size to fortify the paint area. Slessinger’s best UNO team dominated defensively, so perhaps he can recreate that magic this season. It would also help to be able to keep opponents out of transition, an area in which the Privateers were repeatedly burned last year.

Bottom Line: Nicholls is the Southland favorite, but New Orleans has a puncher’s chance at keeping pace the Colonels and rattling off a run in March. Slessinger is in his 10th season and has a roster rich in experience and depth.

4. Northwestern State

Key Returners: Carvell Teasett, Kendal Coleman, Larry Owens, LaTerrance Reed, Brian White, Jovan Zelenbaba
Key Losses: Trenton Massner, Jamaure Gregg, Jairus Roberson, CJ Jones, Dalin Williams
Key Newcomers: Jalen King (JUCO), Cedric Garrett (JUCO), Zurabi Zhgenti (JUCO), Emareyon McDonald

Lineup:

Outlook: 65-year-old Mike McConathy enters his 23rd season at the helm of Northwestern State looking to build off the last two seasons. In those two years, NSU has gone 20-16 in Southland play, a vast improvement from its 19-53 stretch during the four seasons prior. The Demons finished a respectable 5th in the SLC last year behind the four heavy hitters. With a weaker conference in ’21-22 and the return of two starters plus two more starter equivalents, NSU has a real shot at a top three league finish.

McConathy goes DEEP into his bench. He played the 4th most bench minutes in the country last season (11 guys played over 10 MPG), 19th most in ’20-21, and 4th most in ’19-20. He’ll cycle guys in and out of the lineup to keep legs fresh while running his uptempo, dribble-drive-and-kick offense. Transition is the key to NSU’s scoring attack, but it also played a ton in isolation last season (19th most in the country per Synergy). The Demon guards look to beat their defender off the bounce and get to the cup or kick the ball to an open shooter on the perimeter.

NSU’s defense has struggled in recent years. Since 2014-15 the Demons have allowed under 1.10 PPP just once for a full season. Last year was NSU’s worst defense since 2017, as opponents repeatedly smoked the Demons in the open floor. Per Hoop-Math, NSU ranked 317th in FGA% in transition (they allowed a lot of chances) and 293rd in FG% allowed in transition (opponents made shots). Per Synergy, NSU allowed 1.129 PPP, the 323rd “best” mark in America. Given the roster construction, NSU should be a solid defensive team – at least in Southland play. The Demons have length, athleticism, and versatility on the perimeter and strength / rim protection inside depending on is playing the 5.

Larry Owens, 6’7” 300-lb behemoth, started at center last season but Kendal Coleman, a tantalizing sophomore talent played more minutes. Owens overpowers people and throws his weight around, opting to play mostly on the block. Coleman has more of a face-up game and offers rim protection on the defensive end. He ranked 2nd in the Southland in block rate last season.

Coleman is NSU’s most talented frontcourt player (he led the SLC in both OR% and DR% last year), but McConathy might opt to continue bringing him off the bench. Per Hoop Lens, Coleman and Owens rarely played together in ’20-21:

NSU’s defense was stout in that small sample size, and Hoop-Explorer’s metrics agree, showing that NSU allowed just .928 points per possession on an adjusted basis. However, Hoop-Explorer paints a much more pessimistic picture of the offensive end. Per the analytics site, NSU scored just .828 points per possession on an adjusted basis when the pair shared the floor. McConathy is likely better off platooning his bigs instead of stacking the frontcourt with both.

There’s also just not a whole lot of quality depth behind Coleman / Owens. Greek natives Robert Chougkaz and Stavros Polatoglou were both seldom used last season. Chougkaz is a stretch 4 in theory, but he was just 1/13 from deep against DI competition last year. JUCO transfer Zurabi Zhgenti, who hails from Georgia (the country), should see minutes in his first season in Natchitoches. He, too, can add spacing on offense. Freshman forward Shaun Riley II is aggressive and well-built for a rookie; he should be an impact player down the road.

McConathy has far more options in the backcourt. Carvell Teasett is the “Kendal Coleman” of the backcourt, a sophomore who played a ton of minutes last season but came off the bench exclusively. Teasett was the highest used player on the team last year and 5th highest used player in the entire Southland.

Teasett is a scrappy on-ball defender and an excellent shooter on the offensive end, converting 42.6% of his 3PA in SLC play last season. Unfortunately, due to an academic issue, Teasett will miss the first semester (per Blue Ribbon).

LaTerrance Reed should resume his starting role in his 4th season with NSU and 6th collegiate season overall (two years in JUCO). Reed shot 40% from downtown last year and functions mostly as a catch-and-shoot threat with blow-by ability on the wing. 5’6” point guard Brian White likely steps into the starting five for the departed CJ Jones. In another minutes oddity, White played more than Jones last season despite never starting a game. He’s lightning quick, an efficient offensive player, good on or off the ball, and a career 34.2% outside shooter.

Israeli wing Jovan Zelenbaba likely assumes one of the open starting spots this season. He can shoot, defend, handle the ball, and play multiple spots. He has potential to be a breakout player in ’21-22. Returning guard Jordan Potts likely continues his deep bench role.

Some serious talent joins the fold this season as well. Jalen King was an NJCAA 3rd Team All-American last season at South Georgia State College, averaging 15 PPG, 9 RPG, and 3 APG. He’ll be an asset defensively with his length and quickness, and he can be a scoring option with his ability to attack the rim and offensive glass.

Cedric Garrett played at Murray State (College) last season and shot over 42% from 3. He brings good size on the wing at 6’5” and has a nice high release. Freshman Emareyon McDonald is the highest rated recruit in NSU history per 247 Sports. He’s a point guard with solid shooting and table-setting skills. At 6’3” he offers much more length than White at the point of attack – there’s a chance McConathy opts to start the freshman and continues to use White as a sparkplug off the pine. Freshman Jackson Waggoner is a scoring combo guard who descends from NSU royalty.

Bottom Line: With Abilene, Sam Houston, SFA, and Lamar out of the conference, NSU has a clearer path to the top of the league standings and a chance at the auto-bid. The Demons have one of the longest-tenured coach in the country and a roster with plenty of potential.

5. McNeese State

Key Returners: Collin Warren, Braelon Bush, Harwin Francois, Zach Scott
Key Losses: AJ Lawson, Keyshawn Feazell, Dru Kuxhausen, Carlos Rosario, Jeremy Harrell, Chris Orlina, Myles Hutchinson
Key Newcomers: TJ Moss (South Carolina), Myles Lewis (VMI), Brendan Medley-Bacon (VCU), Kellon Taylor (Albany), Christian Shumate (Tulsa), Shaun Walker, Jonathan Massie, Caleb Rawls

Lineup:

Outlook: McNeese had one of the toughest times during the COVID-riddled 2020-21 season. A hurricane forced the Cowboys to relocate from Lake Charles in the fall, and the virus itself forced a multitude of cancellations. The Cowboys tried to get as many games in as they could, scheduling a whopping six contests against non-DI foes.

The on-court product was a disaster, perhaps partially due to the multitude of off-the-court challenges. McNeese’s 340th KenPom finish was the worst for the program in the site’s 25-year history, and former head coach Heath Schroyer has now accounted for the two worst KenPom finishes at McNeese in just three seasons at the helm. Schroyer stepped down from coaching this offseason to take on the school’s AD gig. He leaves with a 19-33 Southland record.

In Schroyer’s stead steps John Aiken, an assistant of Schroyer’s back at UT Martin and the past three seasons at McNeese. Aiken has head coaching experience in the NAIA ranks but this will be his first rodeo as a DI head coach. He’ll only have four of his players back from last season, as five opted to transfer, and, like several other Southland schools, he’ll turn to the transfer portal for help.

McNeese’s returning core is focused on the perimeter. Collin Warren and Braelon Bush return to compete for starts at the 1 and 2 spots, while Harwin Francois and Zach Scott look to earn time on the wing. Warren is a good two-way option in the backcourt; he shot 45.5% from deep in SLC play last season, and Aiken sang his praises as a defender in Blue Ribbon’s preview. Bush is small (just 5’6”), but he’s effective and can be a catalyst to the offense when on the floor. He can play either guard spot and shot 41.7% from 3 last year (he went off against non-DI competition). As you’d expect of a 5’6” DI basketball player, Bush is lightning quick:

Francois and Scott came to McNeese last season from Southern Illinois and Florida Gulf Coast, respectively. Francois played only the second half the season last year after expecting to sit out. He attempted 73 3s to just eight 2s in 2021. Scott was a starter at FGCU, so it was a little surprising to see him earn few minutes for a bad McNeese squad last season. Granted, he wasn’t efficient last season and hasn’t been since his excellent freshman season with the Eagles. Perhaps he can rediscover his form this year.

Aiken brings in five DI transfers to replace the five players he lost to the same portal. TJ Moss, a South Carolina transfer, should be among the most impactful. Moss is a big point guard at 6’4” who has a clear path to a starting spot with AJ Lawson’s (the McNeese one) departure. He started the final five games for the Gamecocks last season, racking up 22 points, 26 assists, and 16 turnovers in those contests. Moss will need to improve his ball security, but he’s sure to improve his stat-line this season stepping down from the SEC to the Southland.

Myles Lewis (VMI), Brendan Medley-Bacon (VCU), Kellon Taylor (Albany), and Christian Shumate (Tulsa) will all play roles in the frontcourt this season. Lewis likely starts at the 4 after starting full-time for the Keydets last season. He ranked 7th in the SoCon in both OR% and DR% last season and is a bruising, defensive menace. Aiken told Blue Ribbon he thinks Lewis could be the DPOY in the Southland.

Medley-Bacon didn’t receive quite the same praise from Aiken, but he’ll be arguably more impactful on the defensive end. Though he didn’t play much at VCU, BMB was a 3rd Team All-MEAC honoree at Coppin State two seasons ago when he led the conference in DR% and ranked 2nd in block rate. He’s a bona fide rim protector in a league that prioritizes rim attack – extremely beneficial for the Cowboys. Offensively, BMB will be a big roll target off ball screens and a lob threat over the top.

Taylor and Shumate are both athletic forwards who will shore up the defensive end. Taylor started every game for Albany last year and brings strength as a former collegiate football player. Shumate barely played for Tulsa, but he’s a terrific athlete who can play above the rim.

Aiken’s five-man freshman class is promising as well. Shaun Walker and Jonathan Massie are sure to see run this season. Walker is a BIG post at 6’8” 280-pounds. Massie is an athletic wing who can handle the ball, play multiple spots, and defend. Forward Caleb Rawls was one of the highest ranked players in the state of Mississippi and can glide to the rim with superior length and plus athleticism. Fellow Mississippian Jonathan Lucas won a 4A state title his senior year. Point guard Trae English is a tough, quick guard who goes hard to the cup. He could be a nightmare for opposing ball handlers.

Aiken seems to have a particular focus on the defensive side of the ball. That’s good considering McNeese was one of the nation’s worst defensive teams last season per KenPom (slightly skewed by a 47-point defeat to Nebraska in the first game of the season). Southland opponents shot a ridiculous 40.5% from deep against the Cowboys in league play, a number that is sure to regress. Schroyer tended to pack it in defensively in the halfcourt, focusing on cleaning the glass and protecting the rim over taking away the 3. Presumably Aiken does the same, but he’ll have more size and athleticism on this end than last season. McNeese got a whole lot bigger with Medley-Bacon coming to town, and with Moss running point the Cowboys will have three guards over 6’4” guarding the arc.

Offense could be a different story. McNeese wasn’t bad on this end last year relatively speaking, but losing Lawson and Dru Kuxhausen, among others, is sure to hurt. Francois, Warren, and Bush are great shooters but they’re pretty much the only ones on the roster. A lot rides on Moss – if he morphs into one of the better creators and playmakers in the Southland, everything opens up for the Cowboys on this end.

Bottom Line: Despite the coaching change and major roster turnover, McNeese seems to be in good position to improve from last season. Granted, it’s not difficult to improve on such a poor year, but the Cowboys have a ton of athleticism and defensive potential to fuel a run into the top half of the Southland standings.

Tier 3

6. Houston Baptist

Key Returners: Za-Ontay Boothman, Hunter Janacek, Jade Tse, Zach Iyeyemi, Brycen Long, Darius Lee, Jason Thompson
Key Losses: Pedro Castro, Myles Pierre, Ty Dalton, Philip McKenzie, Ryan Gomes
Key Newcomers: Khristion Courseault (Nevada), Zion Tordoff (Marist), Sam Hofman (JUCO), Tristan Moore, Jake Arnold, Deshon Proctor

Lineup:

Outlook: Houston Baptist was really bad again, but they weren’t *quite* as bad as in 2020-21 – a 12-10-1 ATS mark supports that bold claim. After a decent 2018-19 season, the Huskies have fallen on hard times. Ron Cotrell’s bunch is just 10-44 (8-27) over the past two seasons, and prior to that decent ’18-19 season, the Huskies were just 6-25 (2-16).

Cottrell is apparently untouchable, so wins and losses don’t really matter for him from a job security perspective. He’s been at HBU for just over 30 years now and oversaw the program’s jump from NAIA (in which they were a VERY good program) to the Division I ranks. HBU was a very young team last season, so there’s some acceptable excuses buried in last year’s futility. With an older roster featuring the highest percentage of returning minutes in the Southland, Cottrell is looking to get back into the top half of the league standings.

Offense has been the much better side of the ball under Cottrell – at least in DI. The Huskies play at a breakneck pace and are always among the fastest teams in the country. Last year, though, HBU’s offense stagnated. It ranked 12th in the SLC in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom) driven by the league’s worst in-conference 3P% (31.4%) and the 301st-ranked FG% at the rim (Hoop-Math). And if the Huskies faced a press? Forget about it. Per Synergy, on possessions during which opposing teams pressed, the Huskies scored just 0.554 PPP, the third worst mark in the country.

Defense has been consistently awful under Cottrell. Since joining Division I, HBU has allowed under 1.10 PPP just once in 13 seasons. KenPom projects the Huskies to be the nation’s third worst defense this season, a ranking that unfortunately could be justified. To correct one of the worst defensive performances of all time in 2020, Cottrell did slow overall tempo ever-so-slightly. In 2020 HBU allowed 1.223 PPP while playing at the 2nd highest tempo nationally. That PPP number dropped to 1.114 last season, and the Huskies’ overall tempo fell to 18th. Baby steps.

Personnel-wise, there’s enough ability on this roster to make a push for a 4th-place SLC finish. Za-Ontay “Tay” Boothman enjoyed a stellar first half of his freshman season but wasn’t quite the same after falling ill in late January. He’ll look to get back on the horse and take the proverbial sophomore leap in production. Boothman takes a ton of shots and can be HBU’s go-to scorer and get-out-of-jail-free-card when the shot clock runs low.

His backcourt partner, Jade Tse, is back as well to resume his PG role. Tse ranked 2nd in the Southland in assist rate last season but posted a near-30% TO rate, which isn’t too unexpected for a freshman freshly thrown into the fire. Tse is a quick, pass-first lead guard who doesn’t look to score. There were plenty of instances last season in which Tse tallied more assists than points. That’s a good type of player to pair with the high usage Boothman; the two should work well together in their second year.

If Tse struggles, Cottrell has another PG option in Nevada transfer Khristion Courseault. Courseault played just 31 minutes for the Wolf Pack last season, but he put up good numbers in the JUCO ranks. The lefty lead guard is more of a scoring-PG, capable of burning defenses from deep. Freshman Jake Arnold could also see run. He’s a tough PG who sees the floor well and has a nice-looking outside shot. Arnold is also very fundamentally sound – I’m not sure I’ve ever seen so much triple threat in a highlight video.

Hunter Janacek and Brycen Long are back on the wings to provide shooting. Janacek is a bigger perimeter option at 6’5” and began his career at Lafayette. Though he has a “shooter” reputation, Janacek is just 29.5% for his career against DI competition. He’s clearly a better shooter than his stats show, and he’ll look to prove that in ’21-22. Long started 12 games and took twice as many 3s as 2s last season. He led the team in 3P% and ranked 7th in steal rate in the SLC on the other end of the floor.

Up front, Zach Iyeyemi and Darius Lee should start at the 5 and 4, respectively. Iyeyemi started nearly every game last season and provided decent rebounding, shot blocking, and rebounding. His size is crucial on a roster otherwise lacking in it. Lee plays the “4” but he’s capable of creating from the wing, as well. While he didn’t start last season, Lee was clearly one of HBU’s better players and could break out in a big way in ’21-22. He was a NJCAA DII 1st Team All-American in 2020 and can score from all three levels of the floor.

Jason Thompson will play a key role off the pine, as will Marist transfer Zion Tordoff. Tordoff missed last season due to injury but was a regular in the Red Fox rotation back in ’19-20. He’s a good athlete and rebounder who can score one-on-one in the post. Belgian import Sam Hofman will see time at the 4, as well. He checks in at a bowling ball-like 6’5” 255 lbs. and can shoot the 3. Hofman began his career at Detroit Mercy where he started seven games as a freshman.

Tristan Moore and Deshon Proctor are Cottrell’s other key freshmen. Moore can play on the wing and is a lights-out shooter at 6’7”. Proctor is an athletic wing who plays above the rim and can man the 3 or 4.

Bottom Line: Houston Baptist might still be a bottom-half Southland team this season, but the Huskies are slowly but surely clawing their way back up the conference ranks. Cottrell knows how to build a program, and this year he appears to have the talent to take the next step towards regaining respect in a league in which he used to compete at a high level.

7. Texas A&M Corpus Christi     

Key Returners: Myles Smith, De’Lazarus Keys, Simeon Fryer
Key Losses: Jalen White, Nolan Bertain, Jordan Hairston, Perry Francois, Peyton Smith, Rasheed Browne, Kerry Richardson, Cyrie Coates
Key Newcomers: San Antonio Brinson (NJIT), Jalen Jackson (North Texas), Trevian Tennyson (JUCO), Isaac Mushila (JUCO), Terrion Murdix (JUCO), Tyrese Nickelson (JUCO), Jasman Sangha (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Willis Wilson’s ten-year tenure at Texas A&M Corpus Christi has come to an end. Wilson retired following last season’s 2-13 Southland debacle, the worst mark during his stay as head coach. TAMU-CC had some good moments under Wilson – from 2014 – 2017 the Islanders went 54-18 in conference play and knocked on the door of the NCAA Tournament a couple times. But last year was awful. The Islanders couldn’t score, and they bottomed out as a result.

Enter Steve Lutz. Lutz has been an assistant coach in the college ranks (some JUCO) since 1995. He’s served on prominent staffs such as Danny Kaspar’s at SFA, Matt Doherty’s at SMU, Dana Altman and Greg McDermott’s at Creighton, and, most recently, Matt Painter’s at Purdue. Lutz has earned the reputation as a good recruiter, something TAMU-CC could certainly use. He’ll start from scratch in Corpus Christi – only three players return from last season’s squad, but at least they were all starters.

Myles Smith, De’Lazarus Keys, and Simeon Fryer are the holdovers from last year. Smith is the team leader and PG, a well-built 5th year player who will look to be the calming presence at the point of attack for a squad made up almost entirely of new pieces. TAMU-CC has struggled with turnovers in recent years, and Smith deserves his fair share of the blame (he has been the starting PG for four years, after all). Ball security needs to improve for Smith, as does finishing at the rim – per Hoop-Math Smith converted just 42.9% of his tries near the rim last season. Outside shooting is Smith’s strength; he’s a career 36.5% from deep on 345 attempts. One could argue he’d be better off playing off the ball.

Keys came over from the JUCO ranks last season and made an immediate impact inside. He’s an excellent rebounder and finisher around the cup. He’ll occupy one of the starting forward spots the whole season and provide post scoring and athleticism.

Fryer started 18 games on the wing last season and adds value as a versatile defender. His 22% 3P clip was woeful, but his 80% FT clip suggests that could improve in ’21-22.

Everyone else on the roster is new. Seven JUCO transfers and two DI transfers join the fold.

The DI newcomers are San Antonio Brinson (NJIT) and Jalen Jackson (North Texas). Brinson was a 3-year starter for the Highlanders and should find himself a cushy role as a starter alongside Keys on opening day. He’s a skilled 4-man, able to score inside and out and guard multiple positions. Jackson is a speedy lead guard and bulldog defender. He was used sparingly at UNT but should take on a significant role at TAMU-CC. He’s a good candidate to push Smith off the ball and join him in lineups.

Three JUCO imports stand out as potential high impact players this season. Trevion Tennyson comes to Corpus Christi by way of Ranger College (where Steve Lutz attended school in the early 90s). He averaged 16.1 PPG for the NJCAA Final Four squad and began his career at Central Connecticut. Tennyson shot 42.6% from 3 at both schools and should give the Islanders a deadly outside shooting threat on the wing.

Isaac Mushila will be a part of the frontcourt rotation while Terrion Murdix will bolster the backcourt. Mushila averaged a double-double at his JUCO last season (over 11 RPG) and has an excellent nose for the ball. He can handle it on the perimeter and adds more athleticism to the fold. Murdix played for a very good Mineral Area College squad where he was the team leader and primary facilitator. He’ll fill a role behind (or next to) Smith as an offensive catalyst.

Tyrese Nickelson is an Indian Hills product, a multi-positional wing who can shoot. Jasman Sangha is a true big from Canada. Stephen Faramade is a paint bound center.

Freshman guard Jordan Roberts could be an impact player down the road. He’s long and has a smooth game. Owen Dease, a 6’8” forward who can play the 3 or 4, is a year or two away.

Lutz will likely bring a new offensive style to Corpus Christi, but it’s hard to gauge what that may look like. His quote to Joshua Parrott at Blue Ribbon is, shall we say, vague:

Thanks, Steve. If we read heavy into that language, maybe he’s hinting TAMU-CC will play uptempo, which would be a bit of a shift from Wilson. Though Wilson’s team last year played fairly uptempo, he’s tended to “zag” and stay slower versus the zigging speed demons that are the majority of the other Southland squads. Any offense should be an improvement on last year’s product. The Islanders were among the most offensively challenged teams in the land and ranked dead last in the Southland in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom). Terrible shot selection and turnovers were instrumental in their struggles.

Wilson had solid defenses for the most part during his tenure, and TAMU-CC has forced a fair number of steals in recent years. There’s plenty of athleticism on the perimeter to force TOs this season, especially against the turnover prone Southland competition. The frontcourt should also be able to hold its own against most conference foes with its considerable physicality.

Bottom Line: TAMU-CC should be better this season, but given it ranked 344th per KenPom in ’20-21, “better” is a relative term. Lutz appears to be a solid hire for a program that’s been competitive in years past and has the means to be in the future but has fallen on tough times. If Lutz can get all the new pieces to gel, this could be a top-half Southland squad.

8. Incarnate Word

Key Returners: Drew Lutz, Brandon Swaby, Godsgift Ezedinma, Logan Bracamonte, Josh Morgan, Bradley Akhile, Charlie Yoder
Key Losses: Keaston Willis, Des Balentine, Marcus Larsson
Key Newcomers: RJ Glasper (Oral Roberts), Kevin Schutte (Hofstra), Johnny Hughes III (DII), Dylan Hayman, Benjamin Griscti

Lineup:

Outlook: Carson Cunningham has been remarkably consistent over his three seasons as head coach at Incarnate Word. In those three seasons, UIW has finished 346th, 345th, and 343rd in KenPom. There’s steady improvement happening in San Antonio, but obviously the goal is to finally break out of the national dungeon and start ascending the ranks. Last year’s 5-9 Southland finish (ahead of five other teams) was a solid sign for a program in a long rebuilding phase. With Ken Burmeister’s first few teams ineligible for postseason play, 2021 was the first time the Cardinals saw the Southland postseason Tournament. They’ll look to build on that momentum, return to the conference tourney and scrap their way into the top half of a wide-open league in 2022.

Two of UIW’s best creators from last season are gone. Thus, offensive production will fall on the shoulders of returning guards Brandon Swaby and Drew Lutz and Oral Roberts transfer RJ Glasper. The Cardinals play at a tortoise pace offensively – they were the slowest team in the Southland last season and have consistently been among the slowest in the country during Cunningham’s tenure. Shooting is the key for this offense – UIW led the league in 3P% and was 2nd in 3PA rate last season and ranked 34th nationally in 3P%. Plenty of shooting returns, but to be successful Swaby, Lutz, and Glasper must be able to make plays.

Without Keaston Willis and Des Balentine ball-handling duties will be passed to Lutz and Glasper. Lutz has ranked in the top seven of the SLC in assist rate in each of the past two seasons and he’ll look to ramp up production in his junior year. He’s a tough driver and has good passing vision, enough to be a serviceable point guard in the Southland.

Glasper started every game for Oral Roberts prior to getting hurt in early February. He’s a talented scorer who could very well lead this team in PPG all season. Glasper scored well off ball screens and in isolation situations last year, two play types that show up frequently in the UIW attack. He’ll be the key to replacing the production left behind by Willis and Balentine.

Swaby is a 3-and-D wing who shot 42% from downtown in Southland play last season. He took a gargantuan leap from his freshman year to his sophomore year and will look to take the next step in 2022.

Shooting will be plentiful with Swaby’s return plus the return of Logan Bracamonte and Josh Morgan. Bracamonte is a straight-up gunner – he took over a quarter of UIW’s shots when he was on the floor last season and was extremely efficient on the offensive end. He doesn’t turn the ball over, and he shot over 40% from deep in SLC play. Morgan was the best outside shooter on the team last season as a freshman and had a breakout game against Wyoming in the third game of the 2021-22 campaign, scoring 18 points off the bench. He’s a sizable guard at 6’3” 215 lbs. and should be one of the deadliest spot-up shooters in the Southland this season.

Elsewhere on the wing, Charlie Yoder could see consistent playing time after an up-and-down season. He played over 30 minutes in two games last year and averaged 11.0 PPG and 4.5 RPG in those contests. Freshman wing Dylan Hayman can play multiple spots, but he may need some time to develop.

Interior play was a huge weakness for the Cardinals last season. UIW was killed inside at the rim, barely played through their bigs on offense, and rebounded poorly. Cunningham turned to the transfer portal to bolster his frontcourt this season. Hofstra import Kevin Schutte is a godsend for the program. Though he was just a role player at Hofstra, Schutte is going to be so much more at UIW. His rebounding rates are off the charts for his career, and he can block shots, something nobody could do on this roster in ’20-21.

DII transfer Johnny Hughes III will also see a ton of minutes up front after averaging nearly 18 PPG and 8 RPG last season. His versatility and athleticism are his best assets – he can play the 4 or out on the wing where’s he a capable ball handler and shooter. I’ll go so far as to say Hughes could be one of the best newcomers in the conference this season.

Returners Godsgift “GG” Ezedinma and Bradley Akhile will provide depth in the frontcourt. Ezedinma started 12 games as a freshman and adds shooting and rebounding. Akhile was inefficient last year after coming over from the JUCO ranks, but he’s an athlete and a multi-positional player. Greek forward Thomas Zevgaras adds deeper depth to the rotation. Australian freshman Ben Griscti, a stretch 5 and well-regarded prospect, will add needed size and more shooting. He’s mobile for his height and has ball skills to play with it on the perimeter.

Defensively, Cunningham preaches taking the 3-ball away. UIW ranked 3rd in the Southland in 3PA rate allowed and 2nd in 3P% allowed, both strong marks. However, UIW was killed inside offering zero rim resistance and ranking 311th in FG% allowed near the cup. Schutte’s arrival will help bolster the interior defense, but it’s still a concern for a team that aggressively shuts down the arc in a league where most teams want to run to the rim.

Bottom Line: Incarnate Word has a fighter’s chance to finish top four in a watered-down Southland this season. Cunningham appears to be building the program the right way, slowly but surely. UIW might not compete with the Baylors or Texas Techs of the world in the non-con, but it’ll be a feisty squad against most SLC opponents.