First Round Game Previews: South Region
-Jim Root
1. Arizona vs. 16. Bryant/Wright St.
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Please give me Arizona vs. Bryant, because it will be a track meet and Arizona will win by 40
- Kerr Kriisa will not be playing – have you seen that guy’s ankle?
- Arizona was 3-1-1 ATS when laying 20+ in the non-conference, as they will be in this one
Arizona Has the Ball
- Arizona LOVES to push the tempo – 1st nationally in average possession length
- Bryant’s transition defense is not great – they are easy to run on
- Both Bryant and Wright State will struggle with Arizona’s positional size – they’re big everywhere, and the high-low can shred Bryant’s zone + dominate the offensive glass
- Wright State might stand more of a chance on D – Arizona is not terribly reliant on dribble drives, Wright’s biggest weakness
- Wright State also slightly better in preventing transition
Bryant/Wright St. Has the Ball
- Bryant is all about transition attacks and drive-and-kick in the half court. They are a big-time “rim and three” offense.
- Arizona forces a huge allotment of mid-range jumpers – 12th-most nationally, per Hoop-Math
- Wright State, meanwhile, is a big post up team, consistently playing through Grant Basile and Tanner Holden against mismatches
- Good luck against Koloko, Tubelis, Ballo
- Either way, both teams are in a lot of trouble here because Arizona eliminates the rim – both attempts (38th nationally in fewest) and makes (39th in FG% at the rim) – both stats via Hoop-Math
Final Thoughts
- Arizona is likely laying 22-23ish against either team, though the PIG spread indicates the Bryant number would be higher
- I will take Arizona if it’s against Bryant – the Bulldogs lost by 67 to Houston, high-level size and talent just obliterates them
- Still a lean to Arizona against Wright State, but significantly less strongly
Picks: TBD
8. Seton Hall vs. 9. TCU
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Two physical teams – bring the ice packs
- Jamie Dixon’s 2nd tourney appearance at TCU in six years (program had not been since 1998 before he took over)
- Meanwhile, Seton Hall made five straight dances from 2016-2020, Kevin Willard is starting a new streak. His name has been in talks at Maryland, but no movement there for now
- Seton Hall’s Kadary Richmond has been dealing with a sprained thumb, but he has time to heal here (Friday game)
Seton Hall Has the Ball
-Heavy pick-and-roll offense – Richmond, Jared Rhoden, and Jamir Harris will all handle it
- TCU is an excellent ball screen defense, although slightly less so when Eddie Lampkin is on the floor (not very mobile). Poor guy gets lost here:
- Big guards can bully opponents off the bounce and in the post, especially Richmond (86th percentile on post ups)
- TCU likely throws Damian Baugh at him, a tenacious defender with some size
- Seton Hall attacks the glass with multiple bodies – TCU was the best defensive rebounding team in the Big 12
TCU Has the Ball
- Most important note: dominant offensive rebounding team (2nd nationally in rate). Seton Hall is not great on the defensive glass (225th in rate)
- Big Eddie Lampkin, Emanuel Miller, Micah Peavy, Xavier Cork will batter the Pirates in waves
- Horned Frogs sorely lack shooting – 304th in 3PA rate, 320th in 3P%. They get a lot of points at the rim
- That is difficult against Seton Hall, particularly when Ike Obiagu is on the court. Per Hoop-Explorer, opponents shoot 43.5% at the rim (crazy low #) when he plays. Overall, Seton Hall is 2nd nationally in FG% allowed at the rim, per Hoop-Math
- Mike Miles is the linchpin in the backcourt. Inefficient at times because of the shots he’s forced to take, but he is their one “go get a bucket” option
- The Pirates can throw some length at him – 6’6 Richmond, 6’6 Cale
- Very patient, as per tradition under Jamie Dixon – 316th nationally in average possession length. Most of those end with Miles tossing up a mid-range jumper and the Frogs swarming the glass
Final Thoughts
- Both teams should struggle to score here, and tempo will not be high. Since Bryce Aiken got hurt on January 15th, 12 of Seton Hall’s 15 games have gone under the total
- I give a slight edge to Dixon on the sideline, though Willard has grown on me over the past few seasons
Picks: TCU +1, Under 130
5. Houston vs. 12. UAB
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Per KenPom, the best 5-seed (Houston ranks 4th overall) and best auto-bid 12-seed (UAB is 46th)
- These teams are structured similarly in terms of Four Factors.
Houston
UAB
Does that mean it’s a “UAB can negate Houston’s strengths” situation? Or is it more of a “Houston plays the same game and does it way better” thing?
- Fun fact pointed out by my pal Tim Murray (@1TimMurray) – UAB has more Q1 wins (2) than Houston (1)
Houston Has the Ball
- Without Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark, all of Houston’s perimeter players have stepped up a notch. Jamal Shead is a maestro with the ball, Kyler Edwards is a lethal (though streaky) high volume shooter, and Taze Moore gets into the gaps and hits more jumpers than expected.
- To stop Houston, you have to be able to at least battle on the defensive glass. UAB has some size with Trey Jemison and KJ Buffen, but both are prone to foul trouble, and Houston will pound them inside. The Cougars may grab 40% of their misses – or more.
- UAB wants to pressure, ranking 32nd nationally in press frequency per Synergy. The Blazers force turnovers and make you uncomfortable, often leading to hurried jumpers. Quan Jackson in particular is a ball pressure terror
- Houston has taken care of the ball this year despite facing some tricky defenses in the American. If they don’t turn it over, they can score against this defense.
UAB Has the Ball
- It’s all about Jelly Walker, folks. He launches without hesitation from anywhere over half court, and the first step to slowing UAB down is taking away that shot. Houston has multiple lanky defenders to throw at him – Moore, Edwards, Shead, and even freshman Ramon Walker will probably take turns at him.
20 on the shot clock, 30 feet away - does not matter for Jelly
- The Blazers lack shooters beyond Walker. Michael Ertel can hit some shots, but he’s the only other player that would spook a defense. That’s bad news against a Houston defense that is maniacal about taking away the rim and forcing challenged jumpers.
- For their part, the Blazers want to hit the glass as well. Houston is not as elite on the defensive boards as on the offensive end
Final Thoughts
- Houston has pounded almost every team of this caliber. It’s impossible to simulate their physicality and intensity, even for someone like UAB, who tries to emulate it.
- Andy Kennedy has undoubtedly done a great job in Birmingham, but Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars have an edge on the sidelines
- I am hoping this line goes further down before I bet it - I would love to see -8 pop (-7 is a pipe dream)
Picks: Houston -8.5, Over 135.5
4. Illinois vs. 13. Chattanooga
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Illinois enters after a suboptimal loss in the Big Ten quarterfinals to Indiana – though it was a loss that likely punched Illinois’ ticket to the Big Dance, aiding the league as a whole
- Brad Underwood and the Illini are looking to erase the disappointment of an early exit from the 2021 NCAA Tournament
- Chattanooga has “giant-killer” DNA – slow tempo, take and make threes, take care of the ball, battle on the glass
- The Mocs are coached by former Wisconsin assistant Lamont Paris. Unsurprisingly, they share the ball, are patient and disciplined on both ends, and rarely beat themselves
Illinois Has the Ball
- Can you stop (or even limit) Kofi Cockburn? That’s the first challenge facing any Illini foe. He’s a truly dominant physical force capable of decimating most single coverage on the block
- Chattanooga has solid size for a SoCon team. Silvio De Sousa (Kansas), Avery Diggs (UCF), and Josh Ayenni (St. Bonaventure/South Alabama) will likely take turns dealing with Cockburn
- If Chattanooga has to send doubles (likely), Illinois’ crisp ball movement and cadre of lethal perimeter shooters could shred the Mocs’ defense. They rank 267th in defensive 3PA rate – if Alfonso Plummer, Jacob Grandison,
- Illinois’ biggest dilemma right now is balancing the playmaking duties between Trent Frazier and Andre Curbelo. Frazier is the steadier option, while Curbelo has a flair for the dramatic – both positive and negative
Chattanooga Has the Ball
- They key to unlocking Illinois’ outstanding defense is putting Kofi in pick-and-roll and making him guard in space – but Chattanooga runs almost zero ball screen action (336th nationally in PnR frequency)
- Illinois forces the most mid-range jumpers in the country – they run you off the 3P line and most people are terrified of Kofi
- Chattanooga typically avoids the mid-range, but outstanding guards Malachi Smith and David Jean-Baptiste can be deadly in that region when called upon
- Chattanooga often tries to play through De Sousa or Ayeni on the block, posting up at a top 20 rate nationally. That’s so difficult to do against Cockburn and Illinois’ other stout interior defenders
Final Thoughts
- This is a rough matchup for the Mocs, a team I was hoping to back this tournament. Not running any ball screen action prevents Illinois from having to deal with its fatal flaw
- That does not mean the Mocs are dead in the water, though. Smith and DJB give them a puncher’s chance against anyone, especially if Illinois is not fully dialed in
- I have a hard time seeing Chattanooga win this outright, but unless Illinois is truly en fuego from deep, then a blowout seems unlikely as well. The pace should remain in the half court, helping the Mocs hang around (this is one of my least confident picks of the first round – be forewarned)
Picks: Chattanooga +7.5, Under 135.5
6. Colorado St. vs. 11. Michigan
Key Background/Matchup Notes
-An 11-seed favored over a 6-seed?! Is that allowed?! (yes of course it is)
-Juwan Howard is back from his suspension. Michigan blew a 19-point lead in his return. Not placing blame, just stating a fact!
-This game is in Indianapolis - I’d expect a healthy contingent of Michigan fans to make their way down from the mitten
- The Rams had some strange travel issues getting to Indy that likely disrupted their practice schedule. Not a death knell, but worth noting
Colorado State Has the Ball
- Tremendously efficient offense – great shooters all across the floor, they never turn it over
- CSU is 12th nationally in TO rate, Michigan is 336th in defensive TO rate – any miscues will be a surprise
- David Roddy, the Mountain West Player of the Year, is a matchup nightmare with his strength and skill. Michigan likely tries a variety of defenders – Moussa Diabate, Terrance Williams, Brandon Johns
- The one knock is that the Rams sometimes struggle to get easy baskets/rely on their jump shooting. Michigan is elite at keeping opponents away from the rim, so CSU will have to figure out a way to score inside
Michigan Has the Ball
- Everything revolves around Dickinson as a post scorer (92nd percentile, Synergy) and skilled PnR roll man. His passing and perimeter shooting have improved this year too
- CSU a surprisingly decent post up defense – need to get some minutes from Moors/Thomas
- DeVante’ Jones has been terrific lately. Last five games: 16.6 PPG, 5.8 APG. Getting better point guard play definitely elevates this offense
- Wolverines settle for a lot of mid-range jumpers – 22nd-most nationally, per Hoop-Math. They shoot just 39.6% on them
- The Wolverines rarely run, but they should – CSU’s transition defense grades out in the 2nd percentile in PPP, per Synergy. Michigan’s transition offense is in the 84th percentile
Final Thoughts
- If Colorado State goes to the “Roddy at center” lineup frequently, the over could be a strong bet here. Both teams have very clear routes to points in that scenario
- Will Michigan run opportunistically? It certainly would make sense to do so based on the numbers
- I think Niko Medved is a terrific coach. Juwan Howard and Phil Martelli are no slouches, though, so if there’s any edge here either way, it’s miniscule
- Overall, this is a coin flip game to me, so I cannot bring myself to lay -2.5 with Michigan when I think CSU might – might – be the slightly better team. For reference, though, both Ky and Matt like Michigan
Picks: Colorado State +2.5, Over 139.5
3. Tennessee vs. 14. Longwood
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- Longwood has some “mid-major Providence” to them in that they win every close game: the Lancers went 10-1 in games decided by six points or less (or overtime)
- Tennessee is surging right now, having won its final seven games of the season and 12 of its last 13
- Two reasons to be wary of the Vols: first, they rank 300th in Haslametrics’ consistency metric. Second, since arriving at Tennessee, Rick Barnes is 1-5 against the spread (-5.4 average cover margin) in the NCAA Tournament
- Also of note: Longwood ranks 341st in consistency. This game has a WIDE array of possible outcomes
Tennessee Has the Ball
- Tennessee runs a motion-heavy offense offensively – the movement is off-ball, rarely running pick-and-roll despite having guards like Kennedy Chandler, Zakai Zeigler, and Santiago Vescovi
- Longwood saw more pick-and-roll action in the Big South. However, they have the option of switching a lot of screens thanks to all of their guards being weight room monsters
- The Volunteers’ size will likely give Longwood problems at the rim and on the offensive glass. Longwood led the Big South in defensive rebound rate, but that’s not exactly a towering league. Longwood’s four tallest players stand 6-4, 6-6, 6-7, 6-7
- This is a different Tennessee team against zones (its fatal flaw last year). The Vols have plenty of perimeter shooting, helping them rank in the 51st percentile against zones, a marked improvement
Longwood Has the Ball
- Griff Aldrich’s team is capable of hanging around thanks to this end of the floor. They push in transition opportunistically, and they spread the floor with four shooters in the half court
- The Lancers rank 6th nationally in 3P% - if left alone, they will punish you. DeShaun Wade (46.6%) and Virginia Tech/Wake Forest transfer Isaiah Wilkins (40.9%) are the deadliest, but Aldrich’s rotation is stuffed with gunners
- That’s the best way to score on Tennessee. Outside of Chandler and Zeigler, the Vols have terrific positional size, especially with Josiah-Jordan James – one of the country’s premier individual defenders. You must loosen up the defense with a few jumpers
- Longwood can have some success on the offensive glass. Leslie Nkereuwem and Zac Watson platoon at the center spot, and both are high-energy bigs that chase boards relentlessly. Power wing DA Houston can also sneak in for some big possessions
- Tennessee can get lackadaisical here at times (152nd in defensive rebound rate). Their guards often leak out too early
Final Thoughts
- The Lancers’ lethal perimeter shooting is the key element here – if they knock in a few shots (especially early), they can give Tennessee issues
- Barnes’ tournament struggles are well-documented, and though this is Aldrich’s first ever NCAAT game, he is clearly a sharp basketball mind
Picks: Longwood +17, Over 132.5
7. Ohio State vs. 10. Loyola-Chicago
Key Background/Matchup Notes
- These two enter on different trajectories. Ohio State lost four of its final five games, and three of those losses came against teams ranked 80th or worse in KenPom. Meanwhile, Loyola impressed in its run through Arch Madness.
- Loyola’s surge corresponded directly to the return of Marquise Kennedy, a bulldog defender and capable creator
- On the other hand, Ohio State’s swoon coincided with injury issues for big men Zed Key (ankle) and Kyle Young (concussion). Both are questionable for this one, with Key far more likely to return
- Surely you remember these Ramblers! Four starters return from the squad that sent 1-seed Illinois packing last season
- Chris Holtmann has make the NCAA Tournament in every season of his tenure. For some reason, the fanbase is restless, and the school’s Athletic Director had to give him a vote of confidence on Monday. That’s…not always the good sign it appears to be
Ohio State Has the Ball
- The Buckeyes are deadly on this end, fueled mostly by a deadly post up attack and the playmaking of freshman Malaki Branham
- Loyola does not see many post up threats in the Missouri Valley. Missouri State’s Gaige Prim did average 16.0 PPG and 10.0 RPG in two meetings, though
- Loyola’s Lucas Williamson has won back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year awards in the Missouri Valley. He’ll likely be tasked with blanketing Branham, and if he eliminates the froshy from the flow of the game, Ohio State’s offense is in trouble
- Ohio State takes a ton of mid-range jumpers (18th-most in the country, per Hoop-Math), but these Buckeyes are deadly from that range. They rank third nationally in FG% in the mid-range at 44.8%, primarily due to Liddell
- Loyola’s answer to Liddell will probably be Aher Uguak or Chris Knight, two rangy forwards with some physicality to them. Both are solid defenders, but that matchup is still to Liddell’s advantage
- You are not scoring in transition against this Loyola team. Per both Synergy and Hoop-Math, they rate as the top team in the country at preventing such opportunities
Loyola-Chicago Has the Ball
- Without a post fulcrum like Cam Krutwig, first-year coach Drew Valentine has adopted a more pick-and-roll-heavy attack. Various ball-handlers can run the show, be it Braden Norris, Lucas Williamson, Kennedy, or even wing Ryan Schwieger
- Shooters dot the perimeter around the primary PnR action. Norris, Williamson, Schwieger, Tate Hall, and Keith Clemons have all had excellent years from deep, and Uguak can knock in a few as well.
- Ohio State’s defensive PnR numbers are not terribly encouraging: 15th percentile against ball-handlers, 20th percentile against roll men, 13th percentile against spot up shooters
- Overall, the Buckeyes are brutal on this end. They have fallen to 131st in KenPom’s AdjDE, a dismal number that underscores their lack of impact individual defenders
Final Thoughts
- The injury questions on Ohio State’s frontline are a serious concern. Young and/or Key being out would hurt them on both ends
- Coaching has to lean towards the Buckeyes here. Valentine could be a rising star, but it’s his first NCAA Tournament game in the big chair. Holtmann, meanwhile, is a veteran of this atmosphere and has a strong track record, 2021 notwithstanding
- Ultimately, Loyola’s PnR attack should shred Ohio State’s flimsy defense. 1.2 PPP is not out of the question here if the Ramblers knock down shots.
- The pace will be slow, but both offenses should be quite efficient (despite Williamson’s efforts on Branham)
Picks: Loyola-Chicago pk, Over 132
2. Villanova vs. 15. Delaware
Key Background/Matchup Notes
-Both teams are far more reliant on skill than athleticism. This is not to say they’re super limited in that department, but their styles are more centered around offensive execution than anything else.
-This is one of several “Player Transfer Bowls” in the first round. Dylan Painter left Villanova for Delaware, and it largely has worked out for both parties. Revenge game time!
-Delaware is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2014 and only its second this century.
Villanova Has the Ball
- Collin Gillespie is the straw that stirs the drink. The fifth-year PG has stepped up in some huge moments this year, most notably against Creighton in the Big East Tournament championship.
- Along with big man Eric Dixon, posting up non-traditional players like Gillespie, Jermaine Samuels, and Justin Moore have been a deadly source of offense.
- Delaware’s post up defense has been porous. The Hens currently rank in the 10th percentile nationally on such plays.
- The Wildcats use those looks and a bevy of pick-and-roll action to bend defenses, attack mismatches, and generate open shots along the perimeter with elite ball movement. Opponents were torching Delaware from deep until the postseason.
- Delaware’s fatal flaw all season was a sieve-like defense that got strafed from beyond the arc. That changed in the postseason, though. The Blue Hens held Drexel, Towson, and UNCW to 0.84, 0.88, and 0.89 points per possession.
- Debbie Downer suggests some luck there, though. Those three teams combined to shoot 12-for-61 from beyond the arc (19.7%). That, uh, may not be sustainable against Nova.
Delaware Has the Ball
-The Fightin’ Blue Hens’ biggest strength is their balance. All seven key rotation players can score: each of that top seven has at least one 20+ point game this season
-Villanova’s switchability across all positions negates some of that balance. There are no weak link defenders to attack in the Wildcats’ rotation, which could make it difficult for Delaware to produce points.
-Jyare Davis’ emergence as a nightmare matchup in the CAA has been a game-changer. At the start of league play, he was a bit player. But when Painter suffered an ankle injury, he emerged into a key piece of the rotation. Entering the tournament, he has tallied double-digit scoring in 13 straight games after doing it just once in the first 21 games.
Final Thoughts
- This one feels like a “two teams play similarly, but one does it way better” mismatch. Delaware got here because of beneficial shooting luck, but expecting that to continue against Villanova is likely foolhardy.
- Neither team has much interest in pushing offensively, so the tempo could help keep Delaware inside the number. Instead, I just think it helps the under as Delaware struggles to score in the half court against Nova’s switching.