SoCon Tournament Preview 2020
3MW’s All Conference Team:
Player of the Year: Isaiah Miller, Jr., UNC Greensboro
Coach of the Year: Steve Forbes, ETSU
Newcomer of the Year: Mason Faulkner, R Jr., Western Carolina
Freshman of the Year: Travis Evee, VMI
Season Storylines:
In another banner year for the SoCon, East Tennessee State reigned supreme at the top, rolling to an outright regular season title at 16-2 and on the cusp of a possible at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament, should it require one. It’s not quite the 2019 Wofford campaign, but it’s mega-impressive to see a SoCon squad up in the at-large echelon for the second straight year (with Furman and UNCG lurking just outside of it once again).
Speaking of Wofford, the Terriers looked like a contender yet again following an 8-3 start to the league schedule, but a seven-game losing skid to end the season pushed the Terriers all the way down into the tournament’s play-in round as the 7-seed. Nathan Hoover’s shooting drop-off was enormous; he went from 47.5% from deep as a complementary option all the way down to 29.3% as a primary focus of defenses. Put another way: he made 12 less threes despite taking 69 more triples than last year.
Elsewhere, Mercer survived the loss of Ross Cummings to injury to climb up to 4th in the league; the senior duo of Djordje Dimitrijevic and Ethan Stair led the way, and Coach Greg Gary looks like a keeper for the Bears (it helps that he brought along his nephew, Jeff Gary).
At the bottom of the league, The Citadel was completely destroyed by injuries (four guys out for the year, including leading scorer Hayden Brown) and another starter left the team during SoCon play. Sure, 0-18 hurts, but Duggar Baucom has consistently praised the fight of his young team in the face of such adversity.
Lastly - I have no idea what to make of Samford. The Bulldogs rank dead last in the entire country in Adjusted Efficiency Margin change from KenPom’s preseason rankings until now. Yes, even worse than North Carolina.
Tournament Preview
ETSU gets the favorable draw by avoiding Furman and UNCG until the championship; those two contenders split during the regular season and should have a bloodbath of a rubber match on Sunday (provided they both get there, as Wofford and Chattanooga lurk). Mercer has a win at ETSU under its belt this season, so the Bucs won’t be skating by to the finals, either.
The biggest question surrounding this tournament is whether the SoCon can earn two bids should ETSU fall in the championship game. I’m inclined to say yes, as the Buccaneers’ road destruction of LSU is a great non-conference win for a mid-major contender, and I stubbornly believe the committee wants to extend an olive branch to the mid-major world every year as a form of plausible deniability that “this system totally works!”
In the sleeper department, Western Carolina is a talented team, but the Catamounts went 0-6 against the league’s powerful triumvirate, so the top-end ceiling might be limited. I’d go with Chattanooga as the potential upset squad, as the Mocs just beat UNCG this past weekend and have the shooting to get hot in a tournament setting; plus, West Virginia transfer Trey Doomes has really emerged as a difference-making athlete on the wing over the past 2-3 weeks. Still, though, this league should come down to the top three.
Tournament Predictions
(9) VMI over (8) Samford
(7) Wofford over (10) The Citadel
(1) ETSU over (9) VMI
(5) Western Carolina over (4) Mercer
(2) Furman over (7) Wofford
(3) UNCG over (6) Chattanooga
(1) ETSU over (5) Western Carolina
(3) UNCG over (2) Furman
(1) ETSU over (3) UNCG