-Jim Root

Key Returners: Myles Cale, Jared Rhoden, Ike Obiagu, Tyrese Samuel, Bryce Aiken
Key Losses: Sandro Mamukelashvili, Shavar Reynolds (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Kadary Richmond (Syracuse), Alexis Yetna (South Florida), Jamir Harris (American), Brandon Weston, Tyler Powell, Ryan Conway

Lineup:

Outlook: After COVID cruelly canceled Seton Hall’s best season in the KenPom era, a late season collapse in 2021 put an end to Kevin Willard’s five-year NCAA Tournament streak. The Pirates lost five of their final six games (only one of which was against an at-large caliber opponent), ultimately short-circuiting a difficult year of ups and downs. Willard was clearly not satisfied, pumping his energy into the transfer portal and the recruiting trail in the hopes of starting a new tournament streak in 2022.

Adding new pieces was vital following the departure of Sandro Mamukelashvili. “Mamu” was the heart and soul of the squad last year, a majestically skilled 6’10 forward who could facilitate the offense, drive and finish with either hand, or bury perimeter jumpers. His versatility and gravity helped open things up for his teammates, and the on/off numbers paint a stunning picture of just how important he was to the team:

Without him, the Pirates crumbled, though it’s important to note that he hardly ever left the floor in competitive games, so those “off the court” numbers largely come from blowouts or the few times Mamu found himself in foul trouble. Still, both the eye test of Mamu’s impact and the numerical evidence pose a pointed question that you may be asking us as you read this: can this team really be better without him?

Clearly, we at the Weave believe so. The primary source of this improvement should be on the defensive end, where two of Willard’s offseason additions, Syracuse transfer Kadary Richmond and South Florida transfer Alexis Yetna, offer massive upside to go along with a roster that already had plenty of positional size. Richmond is a terror and a half on the defensive end with his blend of instincts and length; granted, he had freedom in Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 scheme, but his ability to haunt opponents’ dreams was emphatically clear whenever he was on the floor:

Richmond ranked 13th nationally in steal rate and 419th in block rate, and you can bet he would have ranked highly in “deflection rate” if that stat existed. He’ll need to be better staying in front of the ball now that he’ll be in a man-to-man scheme, but his penchant for creating “events” demonstrates his disruptive upside.

Yetna, meanwhile, will battle Tyrese Samuel for Mamu’s starting spot, and Yetna’s physicality, prowess on the glass, and experience should give him an edge. He’s struggled with injuries in his career, so having Samuel as a quality option is key, but Yetna offers additional offensive punch and was a key anchor for a USF defense that ranked 37th in 2018-19.

With the 6’5 Richmond and and 6’8 Yetna joining a starting lineup that already features 6’6 Myles Cale, 6’6 Jared Rhoden, and 7’2 Ike Obiagu, Seton Hall will have a Florida State-esque group of switchable guards/wings and a monstrous shot-blocker at the rim (that comparison is made even more apt by Obiagu himself being a former Seminole). Freshman wings Brandon Weston and Tyler Powell fit the physical description as well, as does former top 100 recruit Tray Jackson, though the Mizzou transfer barely saw the court last year after being declared eligible in mid-December.

If the defense takes the leap it is capable of, then the offense merely needs to be adequate – though that’s not a given without Mamu’s wealth of talent. Richmond should step in as the primary facilitator, and though he’s not much of a perimeter shooting threat yet, staying in front of him is incredibly difficult thanks to his length and quickness. He’s an adept passer if defenses over-commit to helping on those drives, having ranked 5th in the ACC in assist rate as a rookie.

A healthier year for Bryce Aiken would be a boon to the attack as well thanks to his incredible shot-making, but the former Ivy Player of the Year at Harvard simply hasn’t shown the ability to stay on the court. Fortunately, American transfer Jamir Harris adds a more reliable source of offense after shredding the Patriot League in 10 games last year. Harris began his career at Minnesota, evidencing his impressive pedigree, and he profiles as the perfect “microwave bench scorer” for when the starting unit hits a snag. And if Willard ends up able to count on both Aiken and Harris, then watch out.

Elsewhere, Cale and Rhoden are battle-tested options and proven scorers. Rhoden is more adept as a slasher, while Cale is an excellent floor spacer around the primary action. Weston has the highest upside in the freshman class, though if things break right, he won’t be asked to do much more than some complementary attacking.

Willard runs a balanced scheme in the half court, mixing ball screens and off-ball action in relatively even portions. Cale proved to be a devastating cutter last year, scoring in the 96th percentile nationally, with this simple set often getting him looks against a smaller opponent. Given his height at the shooting guard spot, Cale should be able to get this time and again:

The Pirates can build plenty of other action off that initial “hitter,” though again, the lack of a singular threat like Mamu allows foes to defend Seton Hall a little more conventionally.

One of the bigger questions around this Seton Hall team is the tempo at which Willard will opt to play. In 2020, the Pirates ranked 93rd in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric while willingly pushing in transition, but that number tumbled to 264th last year as the Mamu-led squad pumped the brakes more frequently. This group could swallow opponents in the half court with its defense, but the offense might benefit from some open floor possessions, particularly when Obiagu is off the court, so expect the Pirates’ pace ranking to settle somewhere in the middle of the pack nationally.

Bottom Line: A rocky start and finish to the season doomed last year’s Seton Hall squad, but with Kevin Willard’s presence on the sideline and a roster that is dripping with defensive potential, the Pirates should be able to vault back into the NCAA Tournament after a one-year hiatus. The ceiling hinges on the offensive end, where Richmond has untapped potential as a slasher and passer, while Aiken and Harris could be big-time scoring spark plugs off the bench. Without Mamu around, seeing the upside here takes a little projection, but we’re willing to buy in on the talent and fit combination that Willard has engineered.