-Jim Root

After a week off for Christmas, I am BACK with another edition of the power rankings here at glorious three dash man dash weave dot com. Given that it’s about to be a new year, I thought about giving each team a resolution, but it felt shameful to use two holiday gimmicks in a row. So it’s back to the bread-and-butter - analysis of each squad:

1. Gonzaga (2)

With the Zags now sitting atop these all-important power rankings, I want to make something clear: this spot is not “theirs until they lose.” If Gonzaga plays a string of iffy WCC games against subpar competition, and Kansas starts out Big 12 play by torching West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor, and Oklahoma, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to boost the Jayhawks up to the top slot – even negligent not to do so. A win is (obviously) a win, but I worship at the altar of nuanced analysis, meaning I reject the idea that a team must never drop with a win and must always fall far with a loss. Look no further than Louisville this week, who I dropped only two slots for losing in overtime at a frenzied Rupp Arena – why should that make me think Louisville is so much worse than it was before?

Of course, that brings up a more existential question for these rankings, and so I apologize to Gonzaga fans – your section just got hijacked (relax, there will be plenty more spotlights on the Zags moving forward). What exactly are my rankings trying to show here? The best teams right now? Who the most likely team is to win the national title? Who has the best resume? Honestly, the answer is – I’m not entirely sure. This process is still evolving for me, and I end up trying to factor in all three of those approaches. That allows me plenty of leeway to tinker with the rankings from week-to-week, and it means I always have a vague way to rebuttal against any arguments skewering them; it’s really quite self-serving.  

So let’s put it this way: right now, I think Gonzaga is has the resume, talent, coaching, and ceiling to be considered the country’s top team. Good enough!

2. Kansas (1)

I’ve talked a lot on podcasts (both ours and Reags’ show) about how Udoka Azubuike fundamentally changes the way defenses have to guard Kansas. He’s simply too big for single coverage, and he’s ruthlessly efficient on post ups when opponents don’t send an immediate double. In fact, in the top seven leagues (Power 5, Big East, American), Big Doke ranks 5th (out of 65) in post up efficiency:

Along with PPP, I also included possessions per game, because it’s a great way to illustrate how Azubuike is the best combination of elite efficiency and high volume post ups in big conference basketball.

Opponents know this, of course, so Kansas has to be smart with how they generate touches for him. One of the easiest things to say when a team has a monument like Doke is “just throw it to him on the block!” But post efficiency is aided by the action run to get a guy the ball, aiming to get the big in already-advantageous situations on the catch. One way is to just totally empty out the weak side, meaning there’s no one around to help on a lob:

However, many of his post touches against Stanford were simply dump downs without much else happening, making it far easier for Stanford to double. As a result, the Doke struggled, tallying just two points to go with five turnovers. He was frequently forced to make a play against a defense that had clearly spent a lot of time preparing to stop him — the double is there as soon as the ball is:

Azubuike’s passing has improved this year, but it’s still a work in progress. His improved post moves (see OT against Dayton) have mandated even more double-teams, so refining that passing skill will play a huge part in allowing him to punish teams who defend him like Stanford did.

3. Duke (5)

Continuing off the Kansas note about how the Jayhawks are getting Azubuike touches, let’s take a similar look at how Duke is generating post opportunities for Vernon Carey. Carey is in that same graphic displaying efficient post up players in high-major basketball, and he’s similarly using a getting a huge quantity of opportunities there.  

I am loathe to praise Coach K, but he’s done a really savvy job of getting Carey a ton of catches squarely in the middle of the lane. This makes it harder to double, because the defense isn’t necessarily sure where the double should come from (no side is technically the “weak” side since he’s not on a block), which has allowed him more time to work:

Carey’s not that far off from Azubuike in terms of size, and he’s more of a threat in terms of his face up game. Because of this, he can often be successful without as much of an advantage on the catch, and he’s almost unstoppable in the center of the floor thanks to his physical spin moves.

4. Baylor (6)

Trivia: when was the last time Baylor finished outside of the KenPom top 40?

The surprising answer (to me, at least): 2010-11! The Bears have been remarkably consistent this decade, and if that didn’t resoundingly answer “yes” to the question of whether Scott Drew is a good coach, then the past two years should have. To me, the biggest thing I need to see from a coach is flexibility: can you adjust your approach to match the personnel you have and maximize that particular group of players?

Of course, some coaches can simply recruit an assembly line of guys that fit perfectly into the design of a system – think how Leonard Hamilton constantly reloads with NBA length up and down his roster. Drew, though, has turned himself into a stylistic chameleon, blending his approach into what his roster offers. Early in his career, it was bombing away from three and playing through super-charged backcourts (Aaron Bruce, Curtis Jerrells, LaceDarius Dunn, Tweety Carter). Strange but true: Drew’s first NCAA Tournament team ranked 201st in offensive rebound rate!

Eventually, though, that identity changed to more of a “assault the paint” brand, becoming one of the country’s most dominant offensve rebounding teams and enlisting an army of terrifying big men (Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, Isaiah Austin, Rico Gathers, Jonathan Motley). Those Bears slowed things to a crawl and wore foes down in the post.

The flexibility remained, though, enabling Drew to return to his guard-centric strategy last year, and with a loaded roster this season, he’s able to flex between the best of both worlds. If Tristan Clark can continue to round back into form (19 minutes off the bench yesterday against Jackson State), this will be Drew’s most complete team in Waco, giving the Bears a very real shot at the Final Four.

5. Ohio State (3)

I’m not going to punish the Buckeyes too much for falling in a neutral site game against a team on the cusp of these rankings (and West Virginia could very justifiably be included in the 12), especially one in which Ohio State led 54-53 with under five minutes left. Some late game chicanery foiled the Buckeyes, though, and not the least of which was Miles McBride’s 20-foot floater:

There’s not a lot Ohio State can do about such a shot. The larger problems came throughout the game with offensive execution, as the Buckeyes managed just 0.81 PPP against the stout Mountaineer interior defense. As a whole, Ohio State shot just 7/24 from inside the three-point arc and turned it over 22 times, and West Virginia’s size and length up and down the roster clearly had an impact.

Still, it was promising to see Kaleb Wesson play 36 minutes and shoot 15 free throws against the Mountaineers’ mountainous frontcourt, resoundingly answering our concerns over whether he could avoid foul trouble against such a challenge.

6. Louisville (4)

Much has been made about Jordan Nwora’s double no-show in the Cardinals’ two losses this season, to the point of NBC’s Rob Dauster asking us whether the simulation we all live in is broken:

It’s hard to refute that sentiment: Nwora went a combined 6/26 from the field against Texas Tech and Kentucky, tallying more turnovers (7) than made shots en route to his two worst offensive performances of the season so far.

Of course, those are two outstanding defensive teams, and it’s not entirely Nwora’s fault. On our most recent podcast (150th episode!!), I theorized that Nwora was suffering greatly from his team’s lack of a real dribble-drive threat. None of the Cardinal guards consistently get into gaps against good defenses, meaning he rarely gets the chance to attack a closeout. To confirm this, I watched all 39 possessions he accounted for in those two games (26 shots, 7 turnovers, 6 trips to the FT line) to try and see if there were any common themes.

This could be a much larger article (and maybe it eventually will be), but the general takeaways for me were twofold: 1) Nwora just missed some shots he normally makes. He had seven possessions off screens, and he missed a few open threes that he’ll make in most instances. 2) He’s almost impossible to stop when the defender has to race out at him. Problem is, I only hcounted him catching against a recovering opponent six times out of the 39 possessions. The Cards’ distributors to need to be able to create more opportunities like this:

Texas Tech’s Avery Benson has to choose: sell out against the three, or chop his feet in his closeout to stay on balance against a potential drive. He chose the latter, and Nwora buried a rhythm jumper. But the next time, he can just as easily pump fake and blow by the off-balance defender.

7. Butler (12)

Just when we thought we had Kamar Baldwin figured out, he zigs again, reverting to the inefficient ways of his junior season. After never posting an offensive rating below 96 in the first six games in which he played more than 14 minutes, Baldwin has now had been below that number for five straight games. Perhaps most alarming is that each game has been progressively worse than the last one:

For reference: 100 is about average, 120 is really good, 80 is very bad. So yes, 51 and 48 are unspeakably horrendous, especially on his usage.

Oddly enough, it hasn’t bothered the Bulldogs at all, even in a massive win against Purdue in the Crossroads Classic. The optimist would look at this as a positive: the Bulldogs can clearly beat a strong opponent even when their star has an off night. I’m apparently more of a “glass half empty” guy in this instance, though, because I firmly believe the best version of the Bulldogs involves the Baldwin who torched Stanford and Mississippi in back-to-back games in late November/early December.

8. Oregon (8)

The intrigue around the Ducks is currently centered on N’Faly Dante, the five-star big man who joined the team two weeks ago after the NCAA lit his paperwork on fire before the season started. This is a fairly unique situation given that Dante has not been practicing with the team (he wasn’t even enrolled in the school), as you might have with a transfer or even someone already on the roster that was ruled ineligible by the NCAA. That means there’s a major “feeling out” process for Dante, his teammates, and the Oregon coaching staff in trying to learn how he best fits into a team that had been one of the NCAA’s best through ten games.

Thus far, it’s been fairly neutral. Dante has mostly been a space-eater, and even while playing 47 minutes against lesser competition, he’s managed only seven rebounds and one block, areas in which he figured to excel right away. Of course, Dana Altman runs some tricky defensive schemes, and optimizing Dante’s massive frame in those schemes may take some time. The on/off stats aren’t overly helpful for the three games he’s played in:

Almost nothing on that table is sustainable, good or bad (I don’t think the Ducks will make 66.7% of their threes with him on the court), so there’s very little to take away at this point. The important part is to work Dante into the lineup, hopefully enough to allow him to catch up to the speed of the game and emerge into a force by the time March rolls around.

9. Michigan (9)

I need your help, dear reader. I am thoroughly stumped by this question: is Jon Teske a good shooter? By and large, my eyes tell me yes. Teske has been a legitimate pick-and-pop threat in huge games, splashing triples as opposing centers are unable to close all the way out to the big 7-footer. For a while last season, I think he was something like 10/12 from downtown when I watched him play.

But he mixes in enough ugly airballs to keep me on my toes, and his statistics don’t exactly scream “do NOT leave this guy open!” Teske is just 7/26 from deep this year (26.9%), and before we brush that off as small sample size or an adjustment period to the new three-point line, we must also acknowledge that he was just 23/77 (29.9%) last season. His free throw shooting (69.8% this year, 59.3% last year) isn’t helping his case, and if I only had numbers, I might be inclined to tell Mr. Teske to stop shooting, please.

For some reason, though, I know that he’ll make two triples early in the next game I watch, and I’ll once again be convinced that he’s a tall, white Steph Curry in tube socks.

10. Auburn (13)

In my preseason preview of the Tigers, I discussed how Bruce Pearl had a challenge on his hands with how to use a weapon like Austin Wiley. The massive 6’11 center doesn’t necessarily fit how Auburn has played recently, so I hypothesized that Auburn would essentially be two different teams: a slower, interior-dominant one with Wiley on the court, and transition-heavy, bombs-away one when he hit the bench. In a certain way, that has borne out this year, with the Tigers’ becoming utterly dominant defensively with Wiley lurking in the paint:

Wiley is also in a two-horse race with Quinnipiac’s Kevin Marfo for the title of “best two-way per-minute rebounder,” ranking 8th nationally in offensive rebound rate and 3rd on the defensive end (Marfo ranks 3rd and 6th, respectively, the only players in the top 20 for both categories).

He is neither the Tigers’ best nor most important player, but the way his presence alters the Tigers’ identity makes them exceedingly difficult to play against. Plus, Wiley gives the Tigers a safety valve when their perimeter shots aren’t fouling, and his dominant performance down the stretch against Furman is the reason the Tigers still have a pretty zero in the loss column.

11. San Diego State (16)

Malachi Flynn, All-American?

Why not?

The Washington State transfer has been nothing short of phenomenal for the Aztecs this year, leading the team in points, assists, steals, and threes while maintaining elite efficiency (120.3 offensive rating). He’s the best player on an undefeated team, one that remains atop the NET rankings as of the posting of this article. And he’s also had the clutch/”wow” moments necessary to stand out - here’s him beating San Jose State at the buzzer to avoid one of the sport’s biggest ever upsets:

Ignoring the fact that the above video was seemingly filmed by a player on the bench, Flynn — along with his Aztecs — will need to continue this trajectory throughout MWC play to stay on the All-American track, but that’s likely the least of the Aztecs’ worries. Thanks to tremendous defensive rebounding and interior defense (tip of the cap to Nathan Mensah, the new Skylar Spencer), San Diego State once again has an elite defense (14th in the country, per KenPom’s AdjDE), and we’ve been forced to thoroughly re-evaluate just how good this Aztecs’ squad can be.

12. Dayton (10)

On our most recent podcast, we speculated about the seed ceiling for this particular Dayton team. One thing I didn’t realize during that discussion: Dayton has yet to play a true road game! Taking a note from Coach K and John Calipari’s playbook, Anthony Grant stacked up five neutral site games (three of which were in Maui), preferring to build the Flyers’ resume that way. Unfortunately, the Georgia and Virginia Tech wins may not carry much weight come March (although the Hokies are clinging to the fringes of Q1 status right now), and a win against St. Mary’s in Phoenix, however dominant, isn’t quite the “crown jewel” needed atop a top-shelf resume. Dayton will need to rip through a much-improved Atlantic 10 to feel confident about earning a spot in the “protected” top 16.

Still, it’s quite impressive that the Flyers’ only two losses are in overtime on neutral courts to NCAA Tournament teams (don’t make me regret this designation, Colorado…). Put another way, Dayton is one of five teams in the country who has yet to lose a 40-minute game; San Diego State, Auburn, Arkansas, and Duke are the others. Pretty great company!

Next 10, in order: Villanova, West Virginia, Wichita St., Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan St., Florida St., Memphis, Penn St., Iowa

The Mid-Major Five

For more detail on the top four, please see my colleague Matt’s wonderful mid-major-centric Weekend Wrap-up from yesterday. He did a great job breaking them down, and it’s quite late as I type this, so I’ll happily direct you there.

1. Northern Iowa

2. East Tennessee State

3. Liberty

4. Yale

5. UNC Greensboro / Furman

These two teams are basically identical in terms of performance this year: mirroring 11-3 overall records, 1-0 in league play, two wins over non-Division I competition. The primary difference is that UNCG held on to its huge road win (at Georgetown) while the Paladins coughed theirs up (at Auburn), meaning the Spartans have a better shot at at-large glory.