-Jim Root

It’s been two weeks since the last edition came out, and over that period, teams raced to excuse themselves from the Power Rankings at an astounding rate. Since February 6th, the following has happened:

·        Oregon lost at Stanford and at Oregon State
·        West Virginia lost at Oklahoma, versus Kansas, and got punked at Baylor
·        Arizona got blasted at home by UCLA
·        Seton Hall lost to Creighton at home and at Providence
·        Louisville lost at Georgia Tech and at Clemson, barely registering a pulse in the second game
·        Auburn lost at Missouri after scraping by in three consecutive overtime games
·        Michigan State lost at Michigan and to Maryland at home
·        Houston fell in OT at SMU

So…who exactly should I be including here? You’ll note a few squads making their first appearances…

1. Baylor

Saturday brought the Bears’ first matchup with a ranked opponent since they took over as the #1 team in the AP poll on January 20th. They had to do so without the services of MaCio Teague, their second-leading scorer, who is now day-to-day with a wrist injury. And it wasn’t just any ranked team: West Virginia entered the game ranked 7th at KenPom, (presumably) angry after taking a loss to Kansas at home on Wednesday.

None of that mattered. Baylor once again answered the bell, completely thrashing the Mountaineers in a game that was nowhere near as close as the 70-59 final score makes it appear. Baylor got up 15 midway through the first half and started the second half with a soul-crushing 20-3 run to more than double up hapless West Virginia, 53-25, and it was cruise control from that point forward.

The performance was so dominant that it prompted me to ask Matt and Ky via our internal communication channels who their title pick would right now. I won’t reveal any of our answers, but the point is that Baylor has caused us to question everything we thought we knew.

Also, this play rocked and I wanted to put it in here – look where Freddie Gillespie comes from:

2. Gonzaga

Filip Petrusev is currently 6th in KenPom’s kPOY race, and I’ll be clear here: this is in no way an indictment of Petrusev, as he’s been absolutely terrific as a force in the paint, the hub of Gonzaga’s prolific four-out offense. That said, it’s crazy how little drop-off there is when freshman Drew Timme tags in as the primary big man (or alongside Petrusev):

Both players have been outstanding this season, and part of what makes Gonzaga so deadly is that there’s zero drop-off at all when they bring Timme and Admon Gilder off the bench. It’s a strict seven-man rotation, though (Martynas Arlauskas hasn’t hit double-digit minutes since December 4th), so getting Tillie’s bum ankle back to full health is critical for the stretch run.

3. Kansas

The Jayhawks have the enviable problem of worrying about two players splitting votes for National Player of the Year, as both Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike can make entirely valid cases to be in that conversation. On Sam Vecenie’s Game Theory podcast on Monday, he and I dove into the NPOY race, with Sam making a compelling case for Azubuike’s very real candidacy. Dotson, on the other hand, is currently the choice of Ken Pomeroy’s kPOY algorithm, with Azubuike trailing him in ninth – this has to be a lovely sight for the cross-section of Jayhawk fans/KenPom users:

It feels extremely rare that a player would warrant the award while also having a teammate hot on his heels, giving Kansas a terrifying inside-outside duo that has been dominant all season. Although, perhaps it’s not that rare, considering Zion likely would have been #1 last year had he not gotten hurt, with R.J. Barrett also in the top 10, and the Jalen Brunson/Mikal Bridges combination was a ridiculous Trae Young season away from pulling the same feat in 2018.

4. San Diego State

People (not us…other people…) keep waiting for San Diego State, Baylor, and Dayton to stumble in road conference tests against solid teams playing the biggest games of their seasons. But time and again, that trio just laughs in our faces, winning – and often covering – with relative ease. Chief among those is the Aztecs, who are an astounding 7-1 ATS as a road favorite this season, covering by an average of +7.6 points per game. Just look at this carnage:

Tip of the cap to UNLV, the only team able to hang on to a cover (and only barely). Might want to keep that in mind when everyone is hyping up Nevada to hand the Aztecs their first loss 10 days from now in the Mountain West regular season finale…

5. Duke

I previously wrote about Dayton’s ability to go on insane runs against virtually every opponent it faces, but Duke’s second half against Notre Dame this weekend was right up there in terms of terrifying stretches of basketball that I’ve seen this year. With 18 minutes left in the second half, Duke was only up nine, and the Fighting Irish were still hanging onto the hope of pulling a Stephen F. Austin and getting a season-defining win in Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Fast forward eight minutes of game time, and suddenly Duke was up 30, morphing me (and plenty of other hoop fans, I’m sure) into Apollo Creed’s trainer:

Stretches like that remind us that Duke is, in fact, a very dangerous national title contender, even if the Blue Devils don’t quite belong on the 1-seed line yet.

6. Dayton

On Tuesday night, my cohort Matthew questioned whether Dayton puts Obi Toppin in iso post ups too frequently, too which I thought, “maybe?” But it sparked my curiosity enough to take a look at the data.

Per Synergy, Toppin has had 159 possessions with a post up this year (including passes), or 6.4 per game, which ranks him 63rd in the country in terms of frequency. For a consensus All-American “center” (I use that positional classification loosely), that’s actually not that many, and Toppin is well below other pure post up threats like Luka Garza (10.6 per game), Filip Petrusev (8.4 per game), and Daniel Oturu (7.4 per game).

Additionally, the stats indicate it’s a pretty smart move to throw it to Obi on the block, as the Flyers score at a very good-for-a-halfcourt-possession 1.00 PPP on these post ups. How about a quick table comparison to other elite bigs known more for their post skills:

So he’s not elite relative to the Luka Garzas and Vernon Careys of the world (Mr. Enfield, feed Okongwu!), but Obi in the post is a solid source of offense if the Flyers’ beautiful ball movement fails to generate a quality shot.

Oh, and semi-related: Toppin has only had 11 purely “isolation” possessions all season, and he’s scored 15 points on those, good for 1.36 PPP. Not bad!  

7. Maryland

Another Tuesday night discussion with a friend: the concept of “mother***ers,” which is basically the same as a basketball “closer,” but with even more of a nasty edge added on top. Partially inspired by this tweet from Reags (obligatory explicit warning):

After watching what he did to Illinois early in the season, and then to Michigan State on Saturday night (among other cold-blooded daggers), I’m ready to elevate Anthony Cowan to “motherf***er” status. He will come into your building, see you trying to come back and reclaim a spot in the Big Ten race, and icily do this to you:

Just a certified badass, plain and simple.

8. Florida State

I’ve written before about how Florida State’s defense is so dangerous because of how they can switch everything; Leonard Hamilton has assembled such an army of lanky wings that the Seminoles can roll out lineups with five completely interchangeable defensive parts, wreaking havoc on opposing offenses.

The issues come when they play a true center and still insist on switching. Syracuse picked at this flaw consistently against the ‘Noles on Saturday, leading to easier isolation situations for Joe Girard and Elijah Hughes (okay, granted, Girard bombing threes in from the Flora-Bama is not entirely repeatable for most people):

Hoop Lens indicates that the defense is indeed worse when Olejniczak plays (0.94 PPP with him, 0.89 PPP without), and while he does do some helpful things (mainly: be tall around the rim), FSU’s best lineups are with Raiquan Gray or Malik Osborne as the “center.”  

9. Creighton

As noted in the intro, most teams have shown themselves out of these Power Rankings recently. The Bluejays, on the other hand, have won four games in a row and eight of nine (including at Villanova, at Seton Hall, and at Marquette) to firmly entrench themselves in my Top 12. And I’m thrilled about it, because I get to sing the praises of Creighton’s glorious five-out lineup.

Because of the Bluejays’ lack of size, Coach Greg McDermott will mix in some lineups with Damien Jefferson (6-5, 200 pounds) and Denzel Mahoney (6-5, 225) as the “post players,” and basketball nirvana ensues offensively. Grouped with the Bluejays Big Three of Mitch Ballock, Marcus Zegarowski, and Ty-Shon Alexander, all five players can shoot, drive, or pass, forcing putting opposing big men in awful situations. That lineup was tremendously effective against Seton Hall:

Sure, the Bluejays gave up a ton of offensive rebounds, but if you score 30 points on 21 possessions, it doesn’t really matter.

10. Kentucky

You did it, Kentucky – you climbed an Evansville-sized mountain to get into my Power Rankings! I’m sure it will not be the greatest achievement of your season, but it will certainly be close.

The development of Nick Richards as a go-to center and defensive monster has gotten a lot of attention for Kentucky, but I’ve been as impressed (if not even a little moreso) by the leap taken by Immanuel Quickley, who has blossomed into a deadly perimeter shooter, a savvy tertiary playmaker alongside Ashton Hagans and Tyrese Maxey, and one of the best closers in the sport at the free throw line. It’s wild to me that these are the same guy – usage up, turnovers down, shooting percentages up, etc.:

So if you have been watching Quickley and immediately thought “looks just like Kyle Guy,” you now know why…

Additionally, Quickley just has a killer instinct to him (not quite motherf***er level like Anthony Cowan, but getting there), burying big shots late in games time and again for the surging Wildcats.

11. Penn State

Yes, Penn State lost at home to Illinois on Tuesday night, but come on — it’s not really fair to expect them to beat a team who is clearly using some kind of voodoo magic to keep Ayo Dosunmu’s knee/ankle intact after his gruesome fall against Michigan State on February 11th.

Plus, I just wanted to write a Power Rankings where the Nittany Lions resided in the Top 12. They have to play desperate Home Indiana over the weekend, so there’s no guarantee they’ll be here next week. Still, I needed to pay my respects to Lamar Stevens, Mike Watkins, Myles Dread, Myreon Jones, and Pat Chambers (?!?!?) for what they’ve accomplished so far this year.

12. West Virginia

Mountaineers, you lost three games since the previous Power Rankings - you don’t get a blurb. Win at TCU on Saturday and at Texas on Big Monday and then we’ll talk.

The Next 10: Louisville (in timeout until they try hard), Seton Hall, Auburn, Oregon, Villanova, Arizona, Colorado, Ohio State, Michigan With Isaiah Livers, Marquette

Mid-Major Five

1. Northern Iowa

Lose at Loyola-Chicago…and move up to #1? What kind of operation am I running around here?!

Yes, that’s right – UNI is atop the Mid-Major Five. There’s no shame in losing in overtime at Gentile Arena, and the rest of the contenders mad plenty of missteps themselves. UNI continues to be the highest-rated true mid-major per KenPom, still holds a one-game lead atop the best qualifying league (the MM5 excludes the A10, WCC, and MWC), and the Purple Panthers are still tracking for an at-large bid, should they need it. That’s #1 enough for me.

2. New Mexico State

New Mexico State’s team doctor has to feel like he’s playing Whac-A-Mole — as soon as he gets Trevelin Queen healthy enough to return to the lineup, Terrell Brown goes down with an injury of his own, joining the collection of walking wounded that has the Aggies’ sideline resembling that of the Tune Squad against the Monstars.

And yet…here’s New Mexico State, currently in the midst of a 15-game winning streak, 12-0 against WAC competition, looking every bit the dominant program in the league that it has been for over a decade now. Stunningly, this would actually be the first time the Aggies have ever actually run the table in WAC regular season play, thrice getting close (just one loss) but never completing the feat.

If NMSU does make the Big Dance while getting Brown back and Queen back up to full strength, there’s going to be one extremely unhappy high seed when the bracket gets revealed.

3. East Tennessee State

Tonight, ETSU gets a shot at revenge against Furman, as the Paladins knocked off the Bucs in Greenville in early January. To obtain that revenge — and seize sole possession of first place in the SoCon — ETSU will need to rediscover its identity on the glass.

The same team that went to LSU and outrebounded the extremely athletic Tigers 40-29 in Baton Rouge was dominated on the glass by a significantly less intimidating Furman team 41-28 just two and a half weeks later. Steve Forbes’ squad prides itself on its physicality, and I’d be shocked if the Bucs did come out with a major fire on the glass.

4. Yale

Yale’s veil of invulnerability took a major dent since my last writing, as the Bulldogs lost to Harvard at home and at a Penn team missing starting G Ryan Betley. Still, it’s not enough to drop them out of the MM5 considering what they accomplished early in the season. The Bulldogs are still in the driver’s seat for the Ivy’s top seed, although given the jumbled mess that is 1 through 5 in the standings and the fact that the tournament is at Harvard, it’s hard to tell what the ideal draw would be.

5. Vermont

In terms of roster construction, this Vermont team is kind of a mid-major Penn State: a star combo forward (Anthony Lamb/Lamar Stevens), a defensive stalwart at center (Daniel Giddens/Mike Watkins), and a stable of guards that each play a slightly different role within the team construct. Lamb and Stevens are even having similarly high-usage years (31.5% for Lamb, 29.6% for Stevens) with middling efficiency (101.3 O-rating for Lamb, 102.4 for Stevens).

The difference between Vermont mostly hitting preseason expectations while Penn State flies past its projections is the play of those role players. Watkins has proven to be a far more intimidating presence on both ends than Giddens, and the Nittany Lion guards have been terrific – even with Myreon Jones hurt. It would only seem appropriate to get a 4 vs. 13 matchup between the two teams come March Madness.