-Jim Root

Sure, it’s a new year, but it’s still the same season, and 2020 is bringing the same kind of insanity that 2019 thrilled us with:

Four of my top 12 teams lost a game over the past week, and several others came dangerously close, so clearly, anarchy still reigns as the calendar flips.

Also - yes, I’m starting the week naming convention over for 2020, because it got jumbled into a mess in 2019, and this is a new year for the Weave. Will it cause URL/search headaches once the new season starts in the fall? Almost certainly. But that’s a problem for future me…

1. Kansas (2)

When I saw Christian Braun play in Maui, he clearly had the tools to play for the Jayhawks. His reputation as a knockdown shooter preceded him, and he nearly blew the roof off the Lahaina Civic Center with an attempted alley-oop. But he still had a slight “deer in the headlights” look to him; he needed to catch up to the speed of the game and gain confidence in his place on a veteran-laden team. The potential was there, though, enough for me to tweet this:

The thing is, I did not expect “before my career is over” to be just over a month away (and to be clear, he’s not hateable - yet). Braun was pivotal in the Jayhawks’ Big 12-opening win against West Virginia, playing 30 minutes while Iowa grad transfer Isaiah Moss found himself nailed to the bench. Braun didn’t do anything crazy impressive (six points, five rebounds, two steals), but he also avoided mistakes, committing zero turnovers and using his size and deceptive strength to play excellent defense throughout. He appears to have found his role, and while that massive minutes share may have been matchup-based, it’s obvious Bill Self trusts him already.

Braun’s emergence (along with Moss hopefully not descending into irrelevance) gives Self greater freedom to go away from the two-big lineups that have struggled to score, and I’ll be stunned if Braun does not hit a few enormous triples late in games as Big 12 opponents help too far on Dot and Doke – and perhaps he’ll even give us a shocking posterization.

2. Duke (3)

A couple weeks back, I discussed how Ohio State (and Kentucky) were completely taking away the rim from opponents and forcing them into the midrange. On the other end of that spectrum was Duke, allowing an enormous share of rim attempts for a defense that ranked among the country’s elite. As it stands today, Blue Devil foes are taking 47.1% of their shots at the rim, the 4th-highest rate in the country.

It’s all by design, though. Mike Krzyzewski has returned to the defenses of old (ya know, two decades ago, in the 2000s) that made the conscious decision to run opponents off the three-point line and force them into the paint. This year, that means sending them to the waiting monstrosity that is Vernon Carey (or Javin DeLaurier), daring opponents to score among the trees rather than risk getting firebombed from beyond the arc. Here’s the shot distribution data for the Devils’ defense the past five seasons (remember when they played all zone in 2016-17?):

That 27.3% number is the 7th-lowest rate in the country, indicating just how stringent the Devils have been in extending their perimeter defense.

This probably sounds backwards to say given that Duke has already lost to Stephen F. Austin at home, but that shift may make the Blue Devils less prone to an upset. If their opponents – who by and large are going to have significantly less talent – can’t get hot from the outside, then those foes will have to consistently produce points inside against the shot-blocking skills of Carey, DeLaurier, Cassius Stanley, and Jack White. Coach K is happy to bet that his offense can outscore any opponent forced to do that (except SFA).

3. Gonzaga (1)

That didn’t last long! The Zags’ one-week reign atop my power rankings came to an end without a loss, as the Zags’ last three games (Detroit, Portland, Pepperdine) have all been lackluster in my view. To be fair, I said that if that happened, I would not hesitate to drop Gonzaga:

Duke has really been the team that’s been demolishing its conference competition (Kansas actually trailed West Virginia at halftime), but this is more of a cumulative effect of the last couple weeks than one game moving the Jayhawks up. Obviously, Gonzaga still went 3-0 and nothing hurt its tournament resume, but I just think Kansas and Duke are “better” for now.

4. Baylor (4)

Last week, I discussed how Scott Drew has adapted his style to each roster he has. This year, that’s been most notable in how he’s unleashed his roster of potent defenders in a lethal man-to-man alignment, rather than the funky matchup zone of his past.

Davion Mitchell sets the tone on the ball, hawking opposing guards all the way up the court, and Mark Vital has proven to be as disruptive a defender as there is in the Big 12. Jared Butler and MaCio Teague are no defensive slouches, either, and Freddie Gillespie is fantastic rim protector covering up any mistakes at the rim. All of that has added up to the second-highest defensive turnover rate in the Scott Drew era (and the highest since 2005). Below, in the Florida State section, you’ll see a graphic of the 10 most disruptive teams in the country (as measured by steal + block rate); Baylor ranks 17th in that statistic, demonstrating just how much of a pain Baylor’s defense has been to play against.

5. Butler (7)

The story of Butler’s season to this point has been its incredible defensive resurgence. After ranking 123rd in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last year, the Bulldogs have surged to 5th this year. Part of that has been phenomenal defensive rebounding; Butler ranks 7th in defensive rebound rate and completely taking away second chances for opponents. The Bryce Brothers (Bryce Nze and Bryce Golden) have helped in that regard, but the true strength of the defense lies in its guards. Aaron Thompson has evolved into a true shutdown defender, consistently locking up players like Ty-Shon Alexander and Jared Butler in big games. Thompson (and Kamar Baldwin and Sean McDermott, etc.) have taken great pride in challenging everything on the perimeter:

The one caution here is the possibility of regression. Foes have made just 26.4% of their threes (8th-lowest in the country) and 64.3% of their free throws (19th-lowest), both of which are statistically not something the Bulldogs can control. If either or both numbers regress towards the national average, the Bulldogs will fall back a little bit, as well. Of course, this is the difference between being a top 15 team and a top 5 one, so that’s not exactly a disaster scenario.

6. San Diego St. (11)

San Diego State is undefeated, clearly in position for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament, and ranks 12th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. I can’t help but wonder…are we absolutely certain that Steve Fisher is not hiding under a trench coat on the Aztecs’ sideline?

Look, I know Brian Dutcher was Fisher’s associate head coach for a lifetime (legitimately, since I was born in 1989, but his first two teams while in charge were a far cry from Fisher’s prime. A late nine-game winning streak in his debut year vaulted San Diego State into the NCAA Tournament, but this year’s team truly defends like the vintage SDSU of Steve Fisher’s tenure.

Offensively, though, the infusion of transfer talent and legitimate shooting threats has made SDSU nearly unrecognizable for consistent viewers of the team. The Aztecs hit 9/20 from downtown against Utah State on Saturday night en route to an enormous road win, clearing the largest remaining hurdle in the (still quite difficult) pursuit of a perfect regular season. For those keeping track at home, KenPom now gives SDSU a higher chance of going undefeated in league play (6.4%) than it does Gonzaga (5.0%) with 14 games remaining for each team.

7. Auburn (10)

Auburn has been outstanding this year, no question: the Tigers are one of two undefeated teams remaining, they’ve accumulated seven wins against the KenPom top 100 already, and they’ve been dominant in the paint thanks to the presence of Austin Wiley, Anfernee McLemore, and Isaac Okoro. The wildest part, though, might be that they’ve done all that without making shots.

Last year’s squad had two high-level shot-makers in Jared Harper and Bryce Brown, who combined to make 233 triples at a scalding 39.2%. This year, Auburn is still taking a high volume of threes (61st nationally in 3PA rate), but they’re only making 32.2% as a team, 207th nationally. If Samir Doughty, J’Von McCormick, and Danjel Purifoy start converting at a rate closer to where they were last year — all three have seen their percentages fall this season — Auburn suddenly becomes a very real national title contender once again (and they might be even without that!).

8. Ohio St. (5)

I’m not bold enough to say Kyle Young’s absence was the main reason Wisconsin won at Ohio State on Friday – I’ll make that a tie between Nate Reuvers and the Buckeyes’ sloppy offensive play – but the home team clearly missed Young’s energy and intensity. In an update on Young’s status following an appendectomy, Chris Holtmann alluded to that importance:

Certainly Kyle, what he brings in terms of his rebounding alone, and he’s had a phenomenal start to his junior year, would have been significant in the game the other day.

Young is one of those “impact is far greater than the box score” kind of players, an emotional firebrand that sets the intensity level for the Buckeyes. Of course, as Holtmann stated, he’s also an outstanding two-way rebounder, and he sprints the floor with endless energy, constantly seeking an alley-oop the way Batman hunts petty criminals. I’d wager a decent chunk of change he shows in up in Seth Davis’ 21st-annual “All Glue team” this year, particularly if the Buckeyes continue to struggle without him on the court (and tick back up when he returns).

9. Oregon (8)

Real quick: I’m not worried whatsoever about the Ducks losing at Colorado. The Buffs are very good, playing at altitude is difficult, and Oregon got bitten by the shooting regression bug (which, thanks to an insightful question from a loyal listener, we called on our most recent podcast).

During the Oregon/Utah game on Saturday, Pac 12 Network showed a glorious split screen of Oregon senior Payton Pritchard and Utah freshman Rylan Jones (side note: I was at a sportsbook, of course I don’t actually have Pac 12 Network). I can’t find the screen grab, but for the same effect:

The two don’t look exactly alike or anything, but it was a funny perspective on the evolution of two baby-faced Pac 12 point guards. It also made me realize just how long Rylan Jones’ career is going to feel like when he’s leading the Utes to a Sweet 16 in 2022-23.

10. Michigan St. (18)

Rarely will a team rocket up the rankings like Michigan State did without a crazy road win against a higher-ranked foe (see #11), and while Sparty did whack Illinois and Michigan, this is an outlier rise for a different reason. I discussed Michigan State at length on our podcast last night as part of our “Three Man Thoughts” segment, but the summarized version is this: I am quite willing to excuse the Spartans’ non-conference performance (which was by no means bad, to be clear) as the team dealt with an unspeakable tragedy. I was simply waiting for Michigan State to re-discover its mojo and look like the team everyone ranked #1 entering this season, and in beating the Illini and the Wolverines by a combined 38 points, they did so.

Most importantly, Cassius Winston’s two-game performance – 26.5ppg, 7.5apg, 3.0rpg, only four combined turnovers – served as Winston’s PSA to National Player of the Year voters:

( Enjoy the 2012/13 NBA highlights, Jay-Z has sucked every other version behind the Tidal paywall. I’m partial to Lil’ Nate Robinson at 1:54. Also - what a bizarre thumbnail choice for that video.)

11. Florida St.

In last week’s Baylor section, I referenced how Leonard Hamilton is able to repeatedly bring in long, lanky athletes to play his aggressive man-to-man defensive scheme, and he has done so to great effect – this is currently his eighth team ranked in KenPom’s top 20 in AdjDE. This year’s team, though, has a few added quirks to it that have made it Hamilton’s most disruptive team.

First, with the transfer of C.J. Walker two years ago and the graduation of David Nichols this offseason, Hamilton banished all under-6’4 players from Tallahassee entirely. Point guard Trent Forrest is the team’s “smallest” player, but at 6’4, 210 pounds, he could play power forward for something like 300 Division I teams without any issue.

On the other end of the spectrum, Hamilton has also somewhat phased out the “enormous monster center who has to stay near the rim” from his defense, playing roughly half of minutes with 6’8 Raiquan Gray or 6’9 Malik Osborne serving as the nominal “center.” Mirroring the upsizing at point guard, this downsizing at center has made the Seminoles switchable 1 through 5 against almost any opponent, and those athletes are attacking with reckless abandon.

FSU ranks 7th nationally in steal rate and 2nd in block rate, illustrating the “event-driven” defense that Hamilton has so successfully employed. The ‘Noles lead the country in “steal + block rate,” a proxy I’m using to define the country’s most disruptive teams:

FSU currently has four players in the national top 500 in both steal and block rates; where in the past, FSU would have one Chris Singleton or Jonathan Isaac on the court, this team consistently has three or four destroyers in the game at one time. The defense isn’t perfect – the aggression has made them vulnerable on the glass and susceptible to over-fouling – but the sheer force of athletes that the ‘Noles can throw at opponents will often have a compounding effect over the course of the game.

12. Michigan

Isaiah Livers missed his second straight game on Sunday against Michigan State, and the difference between having his 50% three-point shooting on the floor and the non-threatening Brandon Johns was stark. Xavier Tillman, the Spartan responsible for guarding Johns, basically played free safety, disrupting a ton of action that would otherwise likely have resulted in three points for the Wolverines. Take a look at this still from the third possession of the game, where Tillman is able to fully commit to helping on a Zavier Simpson drive, ignoring Johns at the top of the screen:

That play resulted in a bricked open three from Johns. On the next trip down the floor, Tillman again roamed the paint, helping on Jon Teske rolling/posting up and then on Simpson driving. The senior point guard was forced to kick out to an open Johns, who passed on the shot after his previous miss:

Look, Johns is a decent player – he has clearly improved this year and has been useful defensively and on the glass. But he is also 3/14 (21.4%) from downtown and nowhere near the perimeter threat that Livers is, and Sunday’s team performance on offense (0.92 points per possession) demonstrated just how much the Wolverines need Livers and his floor spacing.

Next 10, in order: Dayton, Louisville, West Virginia, Wichita St., Maryland, Kentucky, Villanova, Penn St., Arizona, Texas Tech

Mid-Major Five

1. Liberty

In my Bold Predictions column for the year, I said that a true mid-major would spend time inside the KenPom top 40 — a la Wofford last season. Unfortunately, I said it would either be New Mexico State or East Tennessee State, and the Aggies have been crushed by injuries, while ETSU’s defense simply hasn’t been good enough . Liberty, though, has quietly snuck up to 46th after a lock-down performance against NJIT on Saturday, and the Flames’ pack line defense is going to suffocate ASUN teams that can’t hit outside shots.

Using Synergy play type data, the comparisons to Virginia’s defense are uncanny — here’s Liberty:

And here’s Virginia:

The total volume of plays are higher due to Liberty having played four more games than Virginia, but the similarities in play type frequency (and comparable inefficiency on each) are striking. Ritchie McKay has clearly done an excellent job bringing his mentor’s style over to Lynchburg.

2. Yale

I can’t help but feel that the narrow loss at UNC is going to end up being a crucial missed opportunity for the “Two-Bid Ivy” campaign, as the Bulldogs couldn’t quite get over the hump despite Anthony Harris tearing an ACL for the Heels and Armando Bacot being heavily limited by foul trouble.

That aside, though, Jordan Bruner’s masterful game needs to be acknowledged. The Yale big man posted a line of 17 points, 15 rebounds, five assists (to zero turnovers), and four blocks against UNC’s heralded big man duo of Bacot and Garrison Brooks, clearly standing out as the best post player on the court. Bruner, like Harvard’s Seth Towns, will be on the graduate transfer market this offseason thanks to the Ivy’s unflinching rules regarding players who miss a year to injury, and he will be highly coveted. But for now, he’s up there with Harvard’s Chris Lewis as the best big in the Ivy, and he’s helped quiet any thoughts that this might be a rebuilding season for the Bulldogs after so much turnover in the backcourt.

3. Furman

Let’s continue the love for players named Jordan, shall we?

Entering 2020, Jordan Lyons was shooting just 30/105 (28.6%) from downtown this season, a disappointing 14-game slump for a guy that shot 34.7% last year at a massive volume.

Two games into 2020, and Lyons is now shooting 44/125 (35.2%) from downtown this season, as VMI and ETSU felt the brunt of Lyons’ New Year’s Resolution (“make more shots,” is my guess). Lyons exploded for 40 points on New Year’s Day, going 10/12 from beyond the arc, and followed that up with a 4/8 performance in a huge home victory over fellow conference contender ETSU on Saturday. The Paladins are going to be an extremely tough out in SoCon play now that Lyons has fully rediscovered his stroke.

4. Northern Iowa

The Purple Panthers nearly went 0-2 this week, dropping a surprising game at Illinois State and then nearly falling victim at home to the shocking early return of Elijah Childs for a game Bradley squad. Thankfully, A.J. Green poured in 35 points by himself, allowing UNI to squeak by with a 5-point victory.

The offense aside from Green was…not good, though. Senior shooter Spencer Haldeman missed the game with injury, and while he’s been bricky all year, the team missed him as a threat to space the floor, at the very least. The futility is probably best summed up like this: Green went 7/13 from deep, while everybody else on the roster went 1/13. UNI did separate itself from the Missouri Valley pack somewhat in non-conference play, but that may end up just painting a larger target on the Panthers’ back, as every Valley opponent will be bringing its best punches to the ring against them now.

5. Louisiana Tech

I probably shouldn’t punish East Tennessee State this severely just for losing a tight one at Furman, but the Bucs also nearly lost to Wofford at home, so we’re getting some new(ish) blood into the ranks!

Louisiana Tech just finished a goofy scheduling quirk where it played Southern Miss twice in six days, and, well, let’s just say Southern Miss is happy to be done with that matchup. The Bulldogs treated the Golden Eagles like their own personal punching bags, winning by 31 and 28 points in the two matchups.

The schedule now stiffens up considerably, as they now set out on the grueling UTSA/UTEP road trip, meaning we’ll get a better gauge on just how good these Bulldogs are. For my money, though, they’re the best team in Conference USA and a legitimate threat to win a game or two in March thanks to their prolific backcourt and deep rotation.