-Jim Root

Key Returners: Trevion Williams, Eric Hunter, Sasha Stefanovic, Isaiah Thompson, Aaron Wheeler
Key Losses: Matt Haarms (grad transfer), Nojel Eastern (transfer), Jahaad Proctor, Evan Boudreaux
Key Newcomers: Jaden Ivey, Ethan Morton, Brandon Newman (redshirt), Mason Gillis (redshirt), Zach Edey

Lineup:

Outlook: As if a global pandemic wasn’t enough to keep the offseason interesting, Purdue briefly turned into a soap opera for a month, as rising seniors Matt Haarms and Nojel Eastern surprisingly decided to finish their careers at BYU and Howard (by way of Michigan), respectively. Coach Matt Painter won’t be following them on OnlyFans anytime soon, as he had some choice words for both players following their departures (originally on a certain radio show in Indianapolis hosted by a shock jock I shall not name):

“You might’ve gotten your degree from Purdue, but you’re not a Boilermaker if you walk out the door in the end.”

“I try to take a step back and look at it from their perspective. How did you better yourself? Are you going to play against better competition in the league that you went to? No.”

I’d be remiss if I did not mention that he also spoke highly of Haarms and Eastern as people, but the message was still far from, “we wish them nothing but the best of luck in their next steps.”

So where does that leave this Boilermaker team? Well, Trevion Williams had beaten Haarms out for the center spot (part of why the enormous lefty is now in Provo), and the wide load in the paint should be the offensive focal point. He already was when on the court (38th nationally in usage rate), but his minutes should rise without the conundrum of having to platoon him with Haarms. Emmanuel Dowouna (and possibly Zach Edey, Purdue’s newest 7’3 marvel) provide depth, but Williams should play all the minutes he can handle.

With Williams on the court, he becomes the offense’s galactic center in the post while Painter’s motion system orbits around him with all kinds of screening action, most notably for Sasha Stefanovic. The goal is to overload the defense with activity, leaving Williams to attack one-on-one:

Alternatively, if foes are over-helping on The New Caleb Swanigan, that opens up perimeter jumpers and cutting lanes for the rest of the roster. Williams blossomed as a passer last season, with his assist rate ballooning to 20.3% in conference play (14th in the entire Big Ten). This is a terrific read as the defense rotates:

Purdue’s motion becomes truly optimized when the floor is spread with shooting, and Eastern’s departure will clearly benefit the Boilers’ spacing. He was mostly non-entity without the ball in his hands, a free pass for an opponent to help on Purdue’s other action. The other key to unlocking the court is Aaron Wheeler, a popular breakout candidate a year ago who bellyflopped painfully in a bigger role. Wheeler’s shooting splits tanked from 44.4%/36.5% (FG/3FG) to 25.7%/21.6%, quickly causing Painter to give Evan Boudreaux a heavy helping of minutes. A bounce-back season is certainly possible for the physically gifted forward, but if he struggles, redshirt freshman Mason Gillis oozes potential as another skilled four-man option. Gillis hasn’t played competitively since 2017-18, though (knee injury during his senior year of high school, sat last year), so there’s some risk in expecting too much out of him.

Another direct result of Eastern’s exodus is that the keys to the Boiler-mobile are officially in Eric Hunter’s hands. The 6’4 redshirt junior made a sizable leap last year, seeing notable increases in his playing time, usage, and efficiency in one fell swoop. He’s not a “pure” point guard in terms of running the pick-and-roll, constantly setting the table for his teammates, etc., but he doesn’t need to be in Painter’s offense. He has size and can knock down shots or slash to his strong left hand, allowing him to take advantage of defenses that focus too much on Williams.

Stefanovic and Isaiah Thompson have the inside track to start alongside Hunter, and both players are deadly from the outside. Stefanovic’s movement shooting makes him particularly dangerous; he ranked in the 82nd percentile nationally in scoring off screens. This was one of my favorite sets to get him an open shot – Stefanovic sets a back screen for Hunter, who immediately turns around and sets a screen himself, the first of three for Purdue’s gunner:

That’s just lovely design and execution. If only he had a cooler jersey number…

Another redshirt freshman, Brandon Newman, should be a key rotation piece after learning the offense last year; the former top-100 recruit brings additional size and athleticism to the wing. True freshmen Ethan Morton and Jaden Ivey are both top-100 recruits themselves, though Painter’s track record indicates one of them might end up redshirting. Painter has called Morton “the best passer I’ve ever recruited,” an impressive claim for a 6’6 wing (my take: the tape justifies it), so Ivey may be the odd man out despite having an impressive offensive arsenal himself.

Ultimately, the returning backcourt trio of Hunter, Thompson, and Stefanovic looked great together last year, and their games simply fit the Purdue offensive attack better than Eastern’s ever did, exemplified by on/off numbers from Hoop Lens:

The concern is on the defensive end, where the loss of Haarms and Eastern will be felt more acutely. Wheeler has the tools to be a multi-positional shutdown guy, but Williams is nowhere near the shot-blocker that Haarms was while also lacking mobility. Per Hoop Lens, the defense was seven points worse per 100 possessions when Williams played without Haarms. The optimism should come from Painter and the scheme, as Purdue has ranked inside KenPom’s top 34 in AdjDE in 10 of the past 14 seasons (2012-15 was a tough stretch in West Lafayette).

Bottom Line: In Williams, Purdue has a clear go-to scorer and offensive fulcrum who no longer has to compete for playing time with a more veteran player, and the complementary pieces around him set up for the Boilers to have a potent offense. If the institutional excellence of the defense continues despite key individual losses, the Boilermakers should find themselves on the victorious end of the scoreboard more frequently in 2020-21 (don’t expect them to finish 342nd in luck again). Painter may have strong opinions about transfers, but his coaching prowess is unassailable, and this Purdue team sports both talent and experience at several key positions.