Patriot Tournament Preview 2020
3MW’s All Conference Team:
Player of the Year: Sa’eed Nelson, Sr., American
Coach of the Year: Matt Langel, Colgate
Newcomer of the Year: Joe Pridgen, Fr., Holy Cross
Freshman of the Year: Joe Pridgen, Holy Cross
Season Storylines:
Matt’s Colgate Raiders were soundly spanked by elite competition early in the year (convincing losses to Clemson, Syracuse, and Auburn in succession), and a baffling loss at Niagara had us wondering if the near-upset of Tennessee in last year’s NCAA Tournament was simply a fluke resulting from Jordan Burns’ hot shooting. The Raiders rebounded enough to comfortably win the Patriot League title, but the ceiling of this team has been lowered by a lack of interior defense (the main concern cited in our preseason preview) and the drop-off in efficiency for Rapolas Ivanauskas.
Lafayette actually swept the champs, but a season-ending injury to leading scorer Justin Jaworski has undermined the Leopards’ potency. That helped open things up for American and Boston U to swipe the 2- and 3-seeds, respectively, avoiding Colgate until the title game. The demise of Bucknell was also quite notable, as the Bison are now relegated to the play-in round after winning four straight regular season titles from 2015-2018 and finishing second last year. They’ve dealt with a few injuries themselves, so perhaps they can salvage things with a run through the league tournament.
Meanwhile, Loyola (MD) became a bettor’s darling following the integration of previously-injured F Santi Aldama midway through conference play. The skilled Spaniard averaged 14.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.8 APG, and 1.7 BPG in nine games; imagine how tough he will be when his smooth shooting stroke actually starts going in (just 22.2% from deep).
The Brett Nelson experiment failed in year one, as Holy Cross failed even more monumentally than I expected; a 3-28 (2-16) record is, um, not good, and supposed cornerstone PG Drew Lowder transferred mid-season. But at least a star emerged in freshman guard Joe “the Repridgerator” Pridgen.
Tournament Preview
The main quirk with the Patriot’s format is re-seeding in the semifinals, helping to pave the way for the 1-seed to have an easier path to the title. This is a good thing for low-major leagues! Send your best team if you can; if not, make a challenger truly earn it.
I’m riding with Colgate to win back-to-back years; I just think the talent level is too high in a win-or-go-home setting. I would have been incredibly tempted to ride Loyola (MD) and its Spanish Armada of a frontcourt, but 20 PPG scorer Andrew Kostecka went down with an injury in the Greyhounds’ penultimate regular season game, likely rendering him out (or ineffective) for this event. Still, I sprinkled a few shekels on Loyola (MD) at 100/1 to win this thing; perhaps Aldama and fellow countryman Golden Dike can go bananas and take advantage of Colgate’s lack of interior defense.
Elsewhere, Army faces the tough task of beating a team three times in one season, having already swept Lafayette, but without Jaworski, the Leopards are a different team. Sa’eed Nelson and American would make for a delightful championship game against Colgate, as Nelson is probably the only player in the league who can match Burns’ quickness and creativity on the perimeter. Lastly, I’ve spent too much time (and money - far too much money) doubting Navy this season, and the Midshipmen have actually already won at Boston U once this season (in OT on January 22nd).
Tournament Predictions
(7) Bucknell over (10) Holy Cross
(9) Loyola MD over (8) Lehigh
(2) American over (7) Bucknell
(6) Navy over (3) Boston U
(4) Army over (5) Lafayette
(1) Colgate over (9) Loyola MD
(2) American over (4) Army
(1) Colgate over (6) Navy
(1) Colgate over (2) American