-Matt Cox

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Jordan Burns, Sr., Colgate
Coach of the Year: Tavaras Hardy, Loyola MD
Newcomer of the Year: Christian Lorng, Jr., American
Freshman of the Year: Jalin Sinclair, Lehigh

Team Previews

Tier 1

1. Colgate

Key Returners: Jordan Burns, Nelly Cummings, Jack Ferguson, Tucker Richardson
Key Losses: Wil Rayman
Key Newcomers: Nick Evtimov** (Western Carolina) 

**eligible at 2nd semester 

Lineup:

Outlook: Scholarly coaches + cerebral players = NCAA Tournament ‘blue blood’ kryptonite in the. Though not a traditional blue blood program powerhouse, Tennessee’s 2019 juggernaut certainly looked the part – another prime upset candidate for a pesky Patriot League team. This time, it was Matt Langel and the Raaaaaiiiiiiders (*Chris Berman voice*) playing the role of spoiler.

The script played out accordingly to plan for the first 30 minutes. Colgate had the Vols trembling with fear midway through the second half, after the Raiders took a two-point lead with just over 10 minutes remaining. Unfortunately, the fairytale ending we all wanted never materialized and UT eventually asserted its superiority in crunch time. Yet, in the wake of that deflating loss, an untamable expectations monster was built around Colgate’s program.

A lethargic start to the season disappointed its most devout believers (*cough, me, cough*) early on, who felt Colgate had the chops to go 15 rounds with Clemson, Syracuse and Auburn in the non-conference. In reality, the Raiders dropped all three by tilts double digits, failing to threaten in any of those contests. Did the expectations monster loom to large?

The Patriot League season marked a new era for a team in search of motivation. The Raiders ran away with the regular season title by a comfortable, though not secure, two game margin. All five losses to league foes the rest of the way, including the soul-crushing defeat in the conference championship game, were by four points or less. 

Now, Colgate’s quest for redemption will come without the guidance of secret weapon Wil Rayman. Beneath Rayman’s deceiving choir book looks lied a tenacious defender and relentless rebounder. He led the entire Patriot in rebounding last season, one of the stripes that earned him Defensive Player of the Year honors. The notion that Rayman would be a bigger loss than Rapolas Ivanauskas seemed preposterous a year ago. Yet, after Ivanauskas’s inefficient and choppy senior campaign, coupled with Rayman’s sterling senior season, that statement holds true.  

Just look at Rayman’s positive net impact on both sides of the ball last season, per hooplens.com’s advanced on / off statistics: 

The Raiders’ frontline now undergoes a total overhaul. A few unknowns will step to the plate, including rising sophomores Keegan Records and Malcom Bailey, along with Western Carolina import Nick Evtimov. Langel will likely promote Records to the starting spot after proving himself to be a reliable minute’s eater last season. As the lone traditional big in this 4-out, 1-in attack, there won’t be much on his plate offensively. He just needs to defend, rebound and rim run. Relative to Records, Bailey’s a higher risk play at the 5, on the heels of an injury last season. However, he could reap higher rewards on the defensive end. Evtimov will sit in timeout until second semester, but, once freed, look for the super-skilled inverse forward, to leapfrog Records and Bailey in the frontline pecking order.

The prevailing theme with the frontcourt is simple: do the thankless dirty work and get out of Jordan Burns and Nelly Cummings’ way. This two-headed backcourt is downright lethal, with Burns as captain and Cummings as his lieutenant. There’s just no imbalance in their offensive repertoire. Whether it’s a pull-up from 25-feet or a shifty drive to the goal, defenses are left guessing as to what’s coming when this dynamic duo has the rock. Chase the offensive glass at your own peril – failure to retreat back and mark up quickly is a suicide mission against these deadly snipers.

Per Synergy, over 50% of Colgate’s fast break shot attempts last year were from downtown, the 13th highest rate in the country last season on transition possessions. The Raiders look to run early and often, which is where they find their highest quality looks from bonus land. As my colleague Jim detailed early this summer, Colgate’s collection of sharpshooters (Tucker Richardson, Jack Ferguson, David Maynard, Oliver Lynch-Daniels) is legitimately elite on the national spectrum.

Bottom Line: In one way, the COVID corrupted NCAA tournament gives the Raiders a second lease on life. After last year’s late game melt against Boston in the title game, at home no less, the Raiders learned the perils of complacency the hard way. Trust me, this team will take nothing for granted in 2021.

2. Loyola MD

Key Returners: Santi Aldama, Cam Spencer, Isaiah Hart, Jaylin Andrews, Golden Dike
Key Losses: Andrew Kostecka, KaVaughn Scott
Key Newcomers: Alonso Faure, Wade Jackson 

Lineup:

Outlook: On February 1st, pinned to the bottom of the Patriot standings with a dismal 1-8 league record, the Greyhounds could’ve waived the white flag. Deep down, they knew their white knight would ride into battle. It was only a matter of time… 

Finally, the Spanish savior arrived. The prophecy, incepted back in the summer of 2019, was fulfilled when Santi Aldama made his season debut against Navy. It took Aldama a few games to shake off injury rust, but goodness gracious did he morph into a Patriot League cheat code. In a matter of three weeks, Aldama lifted Loyola out of the Patriot’s basement, from 1-8 to 7-9 by February 23rd.

Has there ever been a player come through the Patriot who could do this...

AND this…

The answer is, empathically, no. That size and fluidity combination is unfair. 

Defensively, his impact was instantaneous. He turned the restricted area into a black hole, with help from fellow Spaniard companion Golden Dike. Aldama is the ringleader of the Greyhound frontline, referred to as the ‘Spanish Conquistadors’ at 3MW HQ, which added a third soldier to its battalion this summer in freshman Alonso Faure. However, don’t let that cute nickname alienate Brent Holcombe. Marred by injuries the last two seasons, a healthy Holcombe rounds out what might be the deepest frontcourt in the Patriot. 

The titillating hype surrounding Aldama and a loaded Greyhound roster puts an intense microscope over Isaiah Hart, particularly on the heels of Andrew Kostecka’s departure. The jet-quick Hart, who was Kostecka’s sidekick last season, now moves to center stage in the backcourt. He’s a bulldog on both ends, leveraging a low center of gravity and sturdy frame to do damage. However, consistency is still a ‘needs improvement’ area on his player report card. 

Cam Spencer should alleviate some of the playmaking burden off Hart’s brawny shoulders. But, meddling too much in offensive initiation could be a distraction from Spencer’s sharpshooting specialty. Kenneth Jones is the quiet third banana in the backcourt, a blend between Spencer and Hart. Jones is another long-range flamethrower, who also wields a potent change-of-pace element to his offensive game. 

The Greyhounds will go as far as their guard play allows them to this year. Kostecka was the conduit to Loyola’s success on both sides of the floor before Aldama’s grand entrance. Then, when Aldama joined the fold, Loyola was headed to the moon with two of the league’s best performers operating on all cylinders. Hopefully, Loyola’s three-game skid to close out the year, which came right after Kostecka’s gut-wrenching injury against Navy on February 26th, isn’t an omen for what life will be like without their 4-year floor general. 

Bottom Line: Andrew Kostecka, get a fake ID man. Find a way to play one more year with this daunting nucleus. In the grand scheme, the point guard conundrum is a minor nitpick given how loaded the rest of the roster is but losing a top-flight player on both sides of the ball is still cause for concern.

3. Boston

Key Returners: Javante McCoy, Walter Whyte, Alex Vilarino, Jonas Harper
Key Losses: Max Mahoney
Key Newcomers: Ethan Brittain-Watts 

Lineup:

Outlook: As Jon Rothstein would so eloquently say, “the epitome of brutality”. Not even 24 hours after the Terriers’ head-turning upset over Colgate in the Patriot League title game, COVID swooped in for the kill. Many mid majors can hoot and holler about how they were destined for March glory, but few had actually punched their tickets to the big dance – Boston was already packing its bags…  

The 2020 act will a tough one to follow, but the Terriers enter 2021 with a prepackaged postseason starter kit. The key piece is Walter Whyte, basketballs equivalent of a 5-tool player is (I won’t stop you from calling him Heisenberg). Whether it’s on offense or defense, Whyte is Mr. Johnny on the Spot. As his confidence grows, Whyte will sprout into one of the Patriot’s most valuable players. However, with a seasoned perimeter corps intact, Whyte will defer primary ball handling duties to the Terriers’ maestro, Javante McCoy, and his promising protégé, Ethan Brittain-Watts.  

McCoy was phenomenal over the final two months of the season, a precursor of what’s to come in 2021. The 6’5 pick-n-roll magician has shades of Tyrese Halliburton in his game: smooth, shifty and smart are the three alliterative adjectives that come to mind.

Despite being stuck in the backseat behind McCoy, don’t discount Brittain-Watts, either. By February, ‘EBW’ was clocking starters minutes coming off the bench. Head Coach Joe Jones implied in Blue Ribbon’s offseason preview that Alex Vilarino lost his starting spot last year due to a lack of consistency, so look for Brittain-Watts to pounce on that opportunity if it arises again.

This top-3 projection speaks volumes about how high I think McCoy, White and the rest of the returners can fly. However, McCoy and White had cover last season, playing 2nd and 3rd fiddle to Max Mahoney, the Terriers’ bell-cow on both ends of the floor. Max was truly ‘Mr. Fundamental’, a throwback big in every sense of the word. Out of all Mahoney’s strengths, rebounding was his clear forte. He led the Patriot in both offensive and defensive rebounding last season, while anchoring the 2nd best defense in the conference. He may not have been blessed with a 40-inch vertical, Mahoney’s sound positioning and technique served as an effective fortress at the rim. Per Synergy, BU surrendered the 7th highest rate of ‘at the rim’ shots in the country last year (45%) but held opponents to only 35% on those attempts, which ranked in the top-150 nationally. 

6’10 Sukhmail Mathon must now step into Mahoney’s Shaq-sized shoes. Mathon quietly became a featured act down the stretch, clawing his way the starting lineup by late December. Like Mahoney, Mathon isn’t a pro-level leaper, but he can patrol the paint defensively as the last line of defense. The Terriers’ are built to defend from the outside-in, spearheaded by Whyte’s perimeter versatility and Jonas Harper’s ball-hawking. Harper etched his name onto the Patriot’s All Defense team last season, a year after leading the league in 3PT% back in 2019. Along with Andrew Petcash, Jack Hemphill, Fletcher Tynen, and Garrett Pascoe, the latter of whom missed all of last season due to injury, the nuts and bolts of this roster is rock solid – unsurprising, under the design of Joe Jones. 

Bottom Line: For the first time in roughly four years, Jones will have to engineer an offense without Max Mahoney as the epicenter. The last time a player of Mahoney’s caliber left the program was Mo Watson circa 2014, which led to an inevitable drop off and subsequent mini rebuild the following year. The same storyline could repeat itself in 2021, but this roster is sturdier than the 2015 rendition.

4. Bucknell

Key Returners: Andrew Funk, Walter Ellis, John Meeks, Paul Newman, Xander Rice
Key Losses: Jimmy Sotos, Avi Toomer, Bruce Moore
Key Newcomers: Deuce Turner, Andre Screen, Josh Adoh 

Lineup:

Outlook: Last year never happened. A figment of our imagination. 

You have to scroll way back in the archives – specifically, 2007 and 2008, Pat Flannery’s last year and Dave Paulsen’s first year – to find evidence of Bucknell falling down the line in the Patriot food chain. 

After watching the Bison play Penn State to a stalemate for a half in November, I was convinced this team’s A-game was as good as any in the Patriot. Yet, Nathan Davis’ crew just couldn’t string together a complete 40-minute game, as they stumbled to an uncharacteristic 8-10 league record by season’s end.

I’m torn on how much the slew of injuries factored into last year’s demise. Of Bucknell’s top-9 rotational players, only Jimmy Sotos and Xander Rice played in every game. The continuity was disrupted, but only center Bruce Moore was sidelined for a substantial amount of time.

The offense, surprisingly, was the dead weight. Only Holy Cross was less efficient scoring the basketball in league play last year. Bucknell had skill at every position, but sloppy decision making, inconsistent finishing and a season-long free throw infection doomed the Bison’s offensive prowess. 

There’s no need to panic, though. Davis is a brilliant offensive tactician and will deploy his vintage spread passing game offense once again, which is predicated on two simple components: spacing the floor and moving the ball. So simple, yet so effective, when executed properly, as it has been every year since Davis took control of the helm, save last season’s debacle.

The ignition to the offense is hard north-and-south drives, which sets up subsequent kick outs for open 3s. Avi Toomer and Jimmy Sotos were last year’s co-pilots in this dynamic, both effective drivers and savvy creators off the dribble. They were also the Bison’s top long-range marksmen, which leaves two gaping holes on the perimeter (Toomer graduated, Sotos transferred) for Davis to replace. 

Andrew Funk can no longer afford to go AWOL from time to time, a bad habit that took hold last season. Funk’s ‘good’ is All-Conference caliber ‘good’. His ‘bad’ lessens the Bison’s offensive punch. More of the former will catapult Bucknell’s offense back to its lofty historical standards. Funk has some help on the perimeter, Xander Rice (glue guy) and Walter Ellis (3-and-D), two prototypical role players, but the freshmen could be a breath of fresh air to last year’s stale offense.

Per Blue Ribbon, Deuce Turner is the rookie to watch.

Turner could vie for the starting point guard spot right away. If he seizes that chance, Funk may have the luxury of sliding back off the ball, which is closer to his comfort zone. Andre Screen is another heralded freshman, a top-150 recruit per 247sports.com. Turner, Screen and Josh Adoh headline the Patriot League’s best crop of rookies. They arrive at an opportune time, with graduation and transfer inertia biting off a decent chunk of last year’s core.

All that said, it may be up to the big boys John Meeks and Paul Newman, to carry the load in 2021. Akin to Funk’s roller coaster ride last year, Newman endured his ebbs and flows as well. An alpha-dog scoring role is probably above Newman’s paygrade, but he’s a useful low-post scoring threat in opportune moments and against favorable matchups. A few more double-double outings from Newman would be gravy but enforcing the paint on defense will remain his top priority – though, doing so with a hint of delicacy wouldn’t hurt. Newman’s hack-attack aggression severely restricted his minutes last season. As shown by Newman’s 2020 on / off impact below, he HAS to stay on the floor more often this season:

That leaves Meeks, the Bison’s lone returning All-Conference performer. Meeks punched above his weight class last year, but now’s not the time for complacency. Sadly, only Holy Cross was less efficient on offense last year, precisely why Meeks must take that proverbial next step. 

Bottom Line: Every team needs a mulligan. Bucknell just hasn’t needed one for as long as I’ve been alive. Chalk it up to injuries or the curse that is the year 2020, but the Bison simply didn’t have it last season. The injury excuse only goes so far. The Bison were flushed with offensive ammunition, an inventory with plenty of buffer to withstand the nagging dings and bruises.

All that said, throw it out and wipe it from the memory bank. Plenty of key parts return to bet on an emphatic bounce back for the Bison in 2021.

5. Lehigh

Key Returners: Marques Wilson, Reed Fenton, Evan Taylor, Jeameril Wilson, Nic Lynch
Key Losses: Jordan Cohen
Key Newcomers: Jalin Sinclair 

Lineup: 

Outlook: What are the odds that Bucknell AND Lehigh, the Patriot League’s premier programs, find themselves lost in the wilderness at the same time? If you just completed your homework by reading the Bucknell preview above, a similar theme kicks holds for Lehigh’s 2020 autopsy.

“It was probably the weirdest year we’ve ever had in terms of injuries,” head coach Brett Reed told Blue Ribbon this summer. “It was almost like I was working with three distinctive teams.”

Reed tested more lineup combinations than Thomas Edison tested lightbulbs last season. He seemed to settle on a promising recipe late in the year during a 4-0 stretch in late February, but the tinkering will resume in the wake of Jordan Cohen’s departure. However, Reed may not need a full-scale search if Marques Wilson promptly answers the bell. Tagged as more of a combo guard, Wilson was an effective associate to Cohen to last season. The turnover bug bit Wilson at times, but he’s a tremendous passer and devious driver.

Reed also implied Jalin Sinclair, Jake Betlow and Andrei Arion will each get their cracks at point. Sinclair has a case for being the top freshman in the conference this year, but how ready he’ll be to orchestrate an offense from day 1 remains to be seen. He may be better off using Wilson as a buffer this year, while he finds his footing at the DI level. Long-term, the crystal ball shows a bright future ahead of Sinclair, a slippery 6’0 scorer.

Reed Fenton and Evan Taylor are etched cemented in their starting spots, Fenton at the shooting guard and Taylor on the wing. Fenton’s unassuming frame probably caused some opponents to gloss over him in the scouting report, but he’s got subtle hops and a nice shooting stroke. Taylor carries those same genes, a silky southpaw that can play all over the floor.

Of all the lineup disruption headwinds impeding Lehigh’s momentum last year, Nic Lynch’s first semester timeout may have been the biggest barrier. The near 7-foot mammoth slowly became a key hub in the offense down the stretch after battling injuries early on. Unlocking consistency will be key to Lynch’s junior year encore but he’s a dominant force when utilized properly. 

Coupled with Jeameril Wilson’s late surge, the Mountain Hawks started to hit their stride by February. Wilson is Lehigh’s best all-around athlete and player, a capable driver, passer and shooter, on top of holding claim. Jakob Alamudun’s will have to wait in line behind Lynch and Wilson, a rising sophomore who loves to face up and pull 10-15 feet. He’s just scratching the surface of his potential.

Bottom Line: Lehigh and Bucknell were in cahoots last year. Both took the year off, slipping down into a tie for 2nd to last place, an unfamiliar territory for two premier Patriot programs. Reed’s a genius with the clipboard and now starts fresh with a surging batch of sophomores and juniors, led by the Wilsons and big Nic Lynch. Still, life without Jordan Cohen will be a big adjustment.

Tier 2

6. Lafayette

Key Returners: Justin Jaworski, E.J. Stephens, Tyrone Perry, Leo O'Boyle, Neal Quinn
Key Losses: Lukas Jarrett, Myles Cherry
Key Newcomers: Tomas Verbinskis** (Richmond), Eric Sondberg, Jon Brantley 

**eligible at 2nd semester

Lineup:

Outlook: Forget the fluffy lead in. Let’s rip the band aid right off.

Alex Petrie is done for the season. Again. The Leopards’ sharpshooter will sit idle for the second year in a row, as his once promising collegiate career suffers another soul crushing setback.

Now, the good news. Petrie isn’t exactly a soul crushing loss in the context of what happened last year without his services. He was a spectator for the majority of Lafayette’s meteoric rise, which will go down as one of Fran O’ Hanlon’s finest coaching performances in his 25-year tenure as the Leopard head honcho. 

Not only did O’Hanlon adapt brilliantly to account for Petrie’s absence before the year, but he reinvented the Leopards again late in the season on the heels of Justin Jaworski’s knee injury. Losing a point guard that late in the year would’ve been the final straw for most squads, but Franny O tap danced around the land mine like a graceful ballerina. The reeling Leopards mustered a 3-3 finish down the stretch before ultimately running out of gas against Colgate in the Patriot League Tournament.

Perhaps this glowing review of O’Hanlon anchors on my bearish 2020 outlook. Sans Petrie, an ultra-high usage scorer, the offense was doomed for a system shock too great to overcome – or so I thought…

O’Hanlon’s magic dust sent the Leopards skyrocketing up the analytic charts early on and held that cruising altitude steady throughout the entirety of conference play. Not many coaches could amass a plus .500 conference winning percentage with two key pieces sidelined. Petrie will be decommissioned for the second year in a row, but Jaworski, a first-rate gunner in his own right, is back in the saddle. 

E.J. Stephens, Leo O'Boyle and Tyrone Perry were the unsung heroes who kept the Leopards afloat in the face of Petrie and Jaworski’s injuries last year. They’ll no longer need to bite off more than they can chew with Jaworski returning, who shifts everyone back to their rightful role. Collectively, Stephens, O’Boyle and Perry are a battle-tested and overqualified supporting cast alongside Jaworski. Richmond transfer Tomas Verbinskis will bolster the rotation after semester, a tailor-made glue guy for O’Hanlon’s system after a cup of coffee with the esteemed Chris Mooney.

The real darkhorse is 7-footer Neil Quinn. Despite starting 21 games a year ago, Quinn was a non-factor for most of the season – admittedly, a blind spot on my radar. Then, the overgrown freshman suddenly transformed into a mid-range assassin. He canned 59% of his ‘2-point jump shots’, as categorized by hoop-match.com last season, which accounted for roughly half his attempts. After scoring 68 points in 89 minutes over the final five games of the season, it’s time for the Patriot to take this kid seriously. 

Bottom Line: Glowing reviews of O’Hanlon notwithstanding, don’t get duped by the following logic this year kids: “Lafayette was good last year without their best player, so now they’ll be better with him back, right?”

That’s not to say that prognosis is entirely wrong. It just ignores the downside outcome completely, looking only through the rose-colored glasses of optimism.

7. Navy

Key Returners: Cam Davis, John Carter Jr., Greg Summers, Luke Loehr, Daniel Deaver
Key Losses: Evan Wieck
Key Newcomers: None 

Lineup:

Outlook: My wallet would like a word with Ed DeChellis.

The Midshipmen bled my bank account dry from the holidays through the end of January. How short-sighted of me to expect an unproven group of underclassmen to struggle early on.

In all seriousness, DeChellis deserves credit. His young guns were more seasoned than we thought, but they did show signs of cracking down the stretch:

“Well, the word I would use [to describe last season] would be inconsistent. We were very inconsistent over the course of the season,” DeChellis told the Capital Gazette in his March post mortem. “We played really well in spurts. Unfortunately, the last portion of the season we struggled a bit. A lot of that had to do with the makeup of our program.”

Cam Davis and Luke Loehr were the quasi chaperones, along with interior muscle Evan Wieck (more on him, stay tuned). The mid-season surge was driven by Davis, a crafty creator and deadeye shot-maker. The lightbulb seemed to flick on about midway through December.

On a relative basis, Navy’s most efficient source of offense last year was pick-n-roll, which was largely fueled by Davis. Without him, Navy would’ve had a hard time cracking 40 against Virginia on December 29th – with him, they had a prayer.

Now, last year’s young pups are ready to fend for themselves. Wings John Carter Jr. and Greg Summers may have All-Conference campaigns on the horizon. Loehr, along with his twin brother Alec Loehr, will have to put their big boy pants on as well, especially on the heels of Evan Wieck’s graduation.

Wieck, a three year starter and a bruiser up front, was the Mids’ best offensive rebounder. A tireless worker on the glass, Wieck’s sticky hands bailed out Navy’s ice cold shooting on countless occasions. This is where Daniel Deaver could be the ace up DeChellis’ sleeve, who scored 36 points in 45 minutes over a two game span against Lehigh and Lafayette in back-to-back tilts in January. 

Bottom Line: At the risk of being sucked into a coach speak trap, I share DeChellis’ optimism this year.

“It’s probably premature to draw any conclusions, but I kind of like our team. We have a lot of returning firepower,” DeChellis told Blue Ribbon.

A 7th place prediction doesn’t look optimistic on the surface, but the Patriot is on the rise across the board.

8. American

Key Returners: Stacy Beckton, Jamir Harris, Connor Nelson
Key Losses: Sa’eed Nelson, Mark Gasperini
Key Newcomers: Christian Lorng (JUCO), Colin Smalls, Lorenzo Donadio 

Lineup: 

Outlook: ‘Key Losses’ doesn’t do it justice. Sa’eed Nelson, the Eagles’ point guard virtuoso for four years running, deserves a separate line item in the header above.

Every time American took the floor over the past four seasons, there was Nelson centerstage. The game orbited around him from every angle, both from the opposition’s point of view and from his own coach’s point of view. 

“We’re going to miss Sa’eed a ton. You can’t just replace a guy who does as much as he did,” Mike Brannen told Blue Ribbon this summer.

How does one replace the 2020 Patriot Player of the Year? Nelson’s impact wasn’t just rooted in last year’s success – he was entrenched in American’s style of play for multiple seasons. Few players in mid-major history have been as intertwined with their team’s identity as Nelson…

Wait a second… now that’s an idea, Matt!

Using basketball-reference.com’s handy dandy lookup tool, we can filter for players with a similar statistical fingerprint as Sa’eed. As you can imagine, there aren’t many. Since 2010, only six players from the non Power-6 leagues posted a usage rate above 25%, an assist rate above 25%, a steal rate above 4% (Oh yeah, he led the Patriot League in steals last year – did I mention that?) while also averaged 35 minutes a game for an entire season.

American fans want to know what the future holds in a world without Nelson. Well, the last three columns in the chart below show the before and after of these other five precedents, based on KenPom.com’s overall rankings.

All things considered; it may not look so bleak for the Eagles in 2021! UTSA, FIU and Niagara all improved significantly the year after their version of Sa’eed graduated, though Sacramento State and Bradley slid down the chute. Each one of those cases has its own unique circumstances but seeing improvements in three of the five historical examples ‘ought to be music to American fans’ ears. 

The number that ultimately replaces the question marks in Nelson’s row above will be largely determined by Stacy Beckton, Jamir Harris and Connor Nelson. As special as Sa’eed was, Brannen’s offense still operates on constant ball and player movement, which sets up misdirection hand offs and cuts. Beckton, Harris and Nelson are all dual-threat scorers, capable of shooting and slashing from the perimeter. Harris and Nelson are the superior shooters, while Beckton excels at attacking the goal. Collectively, this trio will have to pick up Sa’eed’s pieces in a by-committee fashion.

Meanwhile, Brannen will cautiously groom two rookie point guards, Colin Smalls and Lorenzo Donadio, into Sa’eed successors. Similarly, JUCO import Christian Lorng must do his best Mark Gasperini impersonation down low. A steady 7 PPG / 6RPG contributor on a top-tier JUCO program (Chipila College), Lorng’s size and pedigree qualify him as a high-major player. In this kiddie pool, he could make a thunderous splash immediately. 

Bottom Line: Removing Nelson and Gasperini from the foundation is like chopping two legs off of a pool table. Even for a strong program with a competent supporting cast, Nelson was a brilliant offensive conductor and Gasperini was a rock inside. Without them, Brannen's ingenuity will be tested big time.

9. Army

Key Returners: Lonnie Grayson, Josh Caldwell, Alex King, Tucker Blackwell, Aaron Duhart
Key Losses: Tommy Funk, Matt Wilson
Key Newcomers: Jalen Rucker, Noah Jager, Jared Cross, Matt Dove 

Lineup: 

Outlook: It took Jimmy Allen four years to hurdle the .500 mark in the Patriot, a commendable achievement for the longstanding West Point resident. Allen spent seven seasons at Navy back in the late 90s, so he’s no stranger to the road blocks military hoops program face. Any time Army or Navy crack the top-5 of the Patriot standings, it’s round-of-applause worthy. 

There’s no time to rest on those laurels, though.

Graduation will force Tommy Funk and Matt Wilson to resign, the Black Knights’ Co-CEOs last season. Army must fill leadership positions at two vital positions, exterior playmaker and interior safety valve – or for those of you basketball purists, ‘point guard’ and ‘center’.

For example, this condensed video should be renamed ‘Tommy Funk’s resume reel’. His uncanny ability to knife through seams and break down the defense simply can’t be replaced by any one player:

That said, Allen’s system should help buoy the offense in Funk and Wilson’s absence. The Knights zip the ball around like a hockey team on the power play. This culture, embedded by Allen’s former boss Zach Spiker, breeds unselfishness up and down the roster. The extra pass isn’t celebrated here – it’s just habitual: 

Refer to dribblehandoff.com’s Shot Quality metric, which tracks the average efficiency of every Division I team’s shot attempts. Unsurprisingly, Army checked in at 19th overall last season in terms of shot quality (‘O ShotQ’):

Despite losing ‘the Funk’, Army will head off to battle with a dependable fleet of Ground Troops capable of executing Allen’s orders. Look out for Jalen Rucker, a combustible 5’10 fire hydrant. The renowned DMV hooper could’ve easily taken his talents to a more notable program. Army is lucky to have him.

Lonnie Grayson, Funk’s former partner in crime, is now the solo sheriff at lead guard. He’s rejoined by fellow returners Josh Caldwell, Alex King, Tucker Blackwell and Aaron Duhart. King, a bouncy inverse forward who can stroke it from deep, is the odds on replacement to fill Wilson’s void up front. From a rebounding perspective, he’s not in the same stratosphere as Wilson, so he’ll have to compensate with agility and verticality. This may pave the way for 6’10 freshman Matt Dove to fast track his development program, a physically mature rookie who should be able to hold his own against Patriot League frontcourts.

Bottom Line:

“We are going to look very different,” Allen told Blue Ribbon this summer. “We lost two guys who did a lot, including arguably the best point guard in the Patriot League and certainly the best in Army history.”

That quote sums it up in a nutshell. This roster lacks firepower, but Allen’s too innovative to toss the Black Knights to the curb. If a few dominoes fall his way (a healthy and effective Duhart, a fearless and confident Rucker), the Knights could inch up toward the middle of the pack, but a bottom-5 finish looks like the more realistic outcome.

Tier 3 

10. Holy Cross

Key Returners: Austin Butler, Matt Faw, Ryan Wade
Key Losses: Joe Pridgen, Drew Lowder, Connor Niego, Marlon Harris
Key Newcomers: DaJion Humphrey, Louth-M Coulibaly, Malcolm Townsel (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: As a token optimist, when I read the following headline this summer,“Brett Nelson insists Holy Cross is ‘on the right path’”, I thought, “sure, I buy that!”

The Athletic’s summer coaching spotlight series illuminates the rocky rides of newly appointed program directors. Brett Nelson’s first ride was bumpier than most – well, it was more like being strapped to the back of a demon-possessed bull for three straight months with no end in sight.

Following a coach of Bill Carmody’s caliber, held in the highest regard by astute basketball minds, last year’s trials and tribulations were to be expected. After all, Nelson didn’t take the post until late July, as pointed out in Blue Ribbon’s preview.

What wasn’t expected was the summer exodus following last year’s guinea pig season. Under usual circumstances, year 1 is a trial period for any new head coach. You know, the whole take one step back to take two steps forward cliché. However, the year 1 growing pains are only worth it if the same gang returns to the ring in year 2. That’s not the case this season in Worcester. 

Drew Lowder looked like a beacon of light early on last season but his sudden exodus was the first of many dominoes to fall over the next six months. When the dust finally settled, eight non-seniors had left the program. Was 2020 just a complete throwaway? Perhaps it was Carmody’s inopportune retirement announcement. This left players, who may have normally booted for greener pastures in the summer of 2019, minimal time to assess alternative options, thus delaying their eventual goodbyes until this summer.

Austin Butler, Matt Faw and Ryan Wade are all that remain from last season’s fiasco. An accumulation of injuries didn’t make Brett Nelson’s system installation any easier – pivoting from the Princeton offense to anything comes with a steep learning curve. As the quasi veterans, this trio will usher in a wave of newcomers, who Nelson hopes will stick around for more than a layover. Canadian Louth Coulibaly is the most alluring of the bunch, a physical specimen and ferocious competitor with a rapidly developing skill set.

He should help immediately on the defensive end, where the Crusaders were downright dreadful last season.

Bottom Line: What should've been a building block second season now looks like a repeat of last year's reset. Nelson couldn't lock down the locker room, as he watched a myriad of young guns flee for the exit this offseason. Butler and Faw are starter-caliber by Patriot League standards, but other aid (save Coulibaly) looks barren at this juncture. That said, if the Crusaders can just stay healthy this year, it’s unlikely they’re *worse* than last season.