Pac 12 2020-21 Preview
-Matt Cox
Note: Predicted conference standings may not line up exactly with our Top 40 rankings; this is because Top 40 were ranked via consensus voting, while individual conference ranks are up to the specific writer.
Preseason Predictions
Player of the Year: Remy Martin, Sr., Arizona St.
Coach of the Year: Dana Altman, Oregon
Newcomer of the Year: Evan Mobley, Fr., USC
Freshman of the Year: Evan Mobley, Fr., USC
Team Previews
Tier 1
1. Oregon
See full preview here: #19 in our Top-40 countdown
2. UCLA
See full preview here: #28 in our Top-40 countdown
3. Stanford
See full preview here: #33 in our Top-40 countdown
4. Arizona State
See full preview here: #34 in our Top-40 countdown
5. Arizona
See full preview here: #36 in our Top-40 countdown
Tier 2
6. Washington
Key Returners: Quade Green, Nahziah Carter, Hameir Wright, Marcus Tsohonis, Jamal Bey, RaeQuan Battle, Nate Roberts
Key Losses: Jaden McDaniels, Isaiah Stewart, Elijah Hardy, Sam Timmins
Key Newcomers: Erik Stevenson*** (Wichita State), J'Raan Brooks (USC), Cole Bajema*** (Michigan)
*** needs waiver
Lineup:
Outlook: I present to you, the Pac-12’s Sacko Award recipient for the 2019-20 campaign – quite the *achievement* for a team sporting two 5-star diaper dandies (Jaden McDaniels and Isaiah Stewart). Running the diagnostics on last year’s ‘first-to-worst’ Pac-12 standings free fall brings us to a fork in the road: are we to trust the record (5-13 in conference play) or the advanced metrics (shown below) as the true measure of the Huskies’ 2020 competence?
KenPom: 54th
BartTorvik: 54th
Haslametrics: 44th
Now, juxtapose those exact metrics to the year prior – the same year UW reigned supreme as the champion of the Conference of Champions:
KenPom – 2018-19: 48th
BartTorvik – 2018-19: 51st
Haslametrics – 2018-19: 54th
On paper, the difference between the 2019 and 2020 squads was negligible. In reality, the difference was gargantuan.
That’s the Pac-12 in a nutshell, folks. Welcome to the upside down world of college basketball. Only in this fictitious land does the statement, “Washington was the best 5-13 team in the history of the Pac-12!” actually hold merit.
The culprit behind last year’s conundrum was Quade Green. The former Kentucky transfer was ruled academically ineligible just two games into conference play, which lit the fuse to the stick of dynamite that eventually blew up Washington’s season. Quite simply, everything changed when Green was removed from the equation. Seldom used Marcus Tsohonis had to pick up the pieces, who showed flashes of competence early on (specifically against Oregon State), but ultimately came crashing back down to Earth against stiffer competition. Even with an interior safety valve in Isaiah Stewart, Washington’s guards were in over their heads. This was partly a byproduct of poor roster management by Hopkins, who had no Plan B off the pine to cover for Green’s absence.
While Tsohonis certainly hit bumps along the way, his cool demeanor and reliable long-range stroke qualify him to complement a myriad of lineup combinations this year – as long as he’s relegated to a reserve role behind Green. Of all the guards and wings vying for minutes this season, Tsohonis might be the most malleable. Along with Tsohonis, JUCO import Nate Pryor offers a second contingency plan at point. Pryor was the catalyst of North Idaho College’s near flawless 28-1 record last year. He’s a known commodity to many Seattle natives, where he once led West Seattle High School to its first Final 4 appearance in over 40 years.
Inserting Green back in the mix will help rebalance the offense, but additional aid from former 4-star recruit RaeQuan Battle, an afterthought last year, would do wonders for the scoring engine. Competition on the wing was fierce last season, but Battle’s reputation as a long-range driller should’ve earned him more run. A 27% 3-point conversion rate was wildly disappointing, but perhaps more consistent playing time will help Battle find a groove as a sophomore. Wichita State transfer Erik Stevenson is also seeking to revamp his shooting prowess perception after hitting just 30% from downtown last year. Transferring back to his hometown of Seattle *should* let him bypass the waiting period – if that comes to fruition, Stevenson might be dropped right into the starting lineup from day 1. A third long range sniper arrives from Michigan in former 4-star prospect Cole Bajema. The lanky 6’7 wing failed to make a name for himself in Ann Arbor, but the severe shortage of shooting should part the seas for an immediate impact this year in Seattle.
Shot making alone won’t guarantee Battle, Stevenson or Bajema a featured spot in the depth chart. In Mike Hopkins’ world, length and athleticism are delicacies, two traits that unlock the best version of the Syracuse-hijacked 2-3 zone – despite the recent uptick in man to man, the zone will remain the bedrock of the Huskies’ defense. Nahziah Carter knows this better than anyone, a fixture in Hopkins’ rotation since 2018. Carter’s growth has been slow and steady over his first three seasons, incrementally adding skill pieces to his freakish athleticism foundation. He’ll be joined by another established veteran, Jamal Bey, a 6’6 multi-positional wing and part time starter last year. Bey’s less aggressive on the offensive end than Carter but he’s still an effective slasher in his own right, particularly in transition. Shooting’s been Bey’s biggest bugaboo since coming to Seattle, but he’s too good defensively to keep off the floor.
Up front, the Huskies’ will undergo a serious makeover, as big Nate Roberts anxiously awaits his moment in the sun. Roberts has been patiently waiting his turn, stuck in line behind a stable of bigs during his first two seasons (Noah Dickerson, Isaiah Stewart, Sam Timmins, Bryan Penn-Johnson, etc.). With Hopkins slowly tipping the scale towards a guard-heavy roster, Roberts’ space-eating frame is suddenly a rarity on this roster. His frontline counterparts, Hameir Wright and J’Raan Brooks, each bring a different dimension to the table, but Roberts is the token physical enforcer. He showed flashes of potential in a few brief stints last season, so a large leap forward isn’t an outrageous proposition.
Brooks has also been buried in darkness since his college career commenced, hidden behind a Nick Rakocevic and Bennie Boatwright frontline duo at USC. Brooks embodies all the fundamentals you want in a prototypical big man. He’s not just a burly body who can throw his weight around, nor he is a high-flying leaper limited to rim running and shot blocking. Brooks’ diverse skillset would make traditional big man purists swoon:
This season, Brooks and Roberts will likely split shifts as the primary paint patroller, a critical gear in Hopkins’ zone defense. Hopkins loves to push his wings to the brink, tasking them with covering a ton of acreage which extends well beyond the 3-point arc. By stretching the baseline wings all the way out to the perimeter, Hopkins essentially dares opponents to thread the needle through an endless forest of limbs. Bey, Wright and Carter are masters at this craft, able to stunt out to shooters but still pinch down and recover when the ball rotates.
However, this only works if there’s an interior fulcrum who can push drivers, cutters and post-uppers out of the belly of the defense. As you’ll see in the clip below, Stewart excelled in this spot last year. At first, Stewart is closely connected to Ira Lee, subtly pushing him away from the block. Then, upon the catch, he sneakily retreats back to the restricted area, which baits Lee into taking a TOUGH, contested hook shot. It goes in, but these are exactly the type of shots the Huskies welcome.
This is a function of both Stewart’s savvy instincts and Hopkins’ ingenuity when it comes to instilling zone defense habits.
Now, direct your eyes to the chart below, which tells the story of how Stewart and the wings worked harmoniously to limit both open threes and layups around the rim. The key metric to focus on is the 36.3%, which denotes the percentage of all opposing field attempts that were 2-point jump shots.
It’s easier to flip the 343rd rank on its head for interpretation purposes: Washington forced one of the highest 2-point jumpshot attempt rates in America last season. In contrast, only 26% of all opponent shots were at the rim, which was largely influenced by Stewart’s intimidating presence inside.
Now, this onus shifts to Brooks and Roberts. Neither is regarded as a supreme shot swatter – in fact, rim protection is my biggest concern with this year’s Huskies – but they can still be effective in other ways. The key is for them to deter shots up close through sound defensive positioning and brute physicality. If this duo can make rim attackers think twice about infiltrating the paint, they’ll have done their job.
Using Hopkins’ 2020 lineup combinations as a cheat sheet, it’s safe to assume that the aforementioned Wright has a stranglehold on the starting 4-spot after Jaden McDaniels delayed his promotion to the starting lineup last season. The springy 6’9 Wright nestled into a niche role, a strict 3-and-Der, and shunned every other facet of the game. A loose handle and sloppy passing instincts contributed to Wright’s 28% turnover rate, the highest among all regular contributors.
Bottom Line: Arizona and Oregon are the perennial powers, Arizona State and Stanford are the sexy new arrivals, but Washington is the Pac-12 contender that seems to be lurking in the shadows. The lack of freshmen star power is to blame for the Huskies’ getting ‘below the fold’ treatment in the offseason ink, but I’m stubbornly convinced that 1) a full year with Quade Green plus 2) a full year without Jaden McDaniels = a refreshing revival of the Huskies’ offense.
7. USC
Key Returners: Ethan Anderson, Isaiah Mobley, Max Agbonkpolo
Key Losses: Onyeka Okongwu, Nick Rakocevic, Daniel Utomi, Quinton Adlesh, Jonah Mathews
Key Newcomers: Evan Mobley, Noah Baumann (San Jose State), Isaiah White (Utah Valley), Tahj Eaddy (Santa Clara), Chevez Goodwin (Wofford), Boubacar Coulibaly, Drew Peterson*** (Rice), Josh Morgan*** (Long Beach State)
***needs waiver
Lineup:
Outlook: Not even the year 2020 could knock the Trojans off their routine course – though, 2019 was a mini-detour from the norm. The standard USC basketball status quo held firm last season: 20-plus wins overall. 9-plus wins in the Pac-12. The result? A promising, yet far from certain, NCAA tournament prophecy…
Backtracking USC’s 2020 at-large prognosis is a waste of time, but most experts pegged the Trojans to wind up right in that 8-11 seed range, a familiar territory for Andy Enfield and the boys. Let’s assume the cards would’ve fallen as such. That fate would’ve solidified a near identical landing spot as the four years prior, save 2019.
The destination didn’t change, but the flight path did. Notice the bright green background illuminating the Trojans’ adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 92, which, as the subtly scribbled ‘18’ reveals, translated to the 18th best overall defense in America. This sticks out like a sore thumb on top of the middling defensive numbers turned in the four years prior, a frustrating trend we’ve shown no restraint in holding Enfield accountable for.
It appears someone FINALLY tipped off Enfield to what we’ve been shouting from the rooftops for years: scrap the zone, and play more man-to-man.
Sure, a defensive demolition ball like Onyeka Okongwu helped, but Enfield’s been talent rich up front for years and shown repeated apathy toward defending.
Unfortunately, the monumental strides on defense were offset by a deteriorating offense. Okongwu did all he could to compensate for patchy guard play, but the guard gang was disinterested in lending a hand, save Jonah Mathews.
Enfield and the staff failed to replenish the guard inventory through the grassroots pipeline, so they scrambled to round up some rentals via the transfer wire. Slotted for big minutes next year will be a San Jose State transfer (Noah Baumann), a Utah Valley transfer (Isaiah White) and a Santa Clara transfer (Tahj Eaddy), along with an erratic incumbent, Ethan Anderson. Not exactly a ‘Showtime’ caliber group of guards…
That transfer trio were all stat sheet stuffers at their prior destinations, but it was largely empty calorie production (big numbers not translating to team success). Faced with a similar dilemma as last season, bet on Enfield doubling down on size again with another heralded freshman phenom. This time, it’s all in the family.
In steps Evan Mobley, younger brother of Isaiah Mobley and the latest 5-star gem Enfield’s mined on the recruiting trail. Overshadowed by the recent Cade Cunningham glow, it wasn’t so long ago that Mobley was the cant miss prospect in this 2020 class. Calling a top-3 prospect underrated feels disingenuous, but it sure feels like he’s flying under the radar – trust me, that will change in a hurry.
Many lauded big man prospects carry the allure of jaw-dropping potential with near term baggage, such as glaring gaps in skill or lackadaisical effort, but Mobley’s a different breed amongst his rookie big cohorts. His potential is atmospheric, but advanced footwork, fluid mobility and rebounding instincts explain why 247sports recruiter Josh Gershon sees “All-Star upside with a pretty safe floor” in Mobley.
Not many 7-footers can prance like that to the bucket with a Julius Erving- esque cradle to match. Those nimble feet will translate well to the other end, where Mobley should flourish in the newly adopted man to man scheme. Alongside older brother Isaiah, Max Agbonkpolo and Wofford import Chevez Goodwin, the Trojans will boast another formidable fortress up front. Goodwin struggled against elite length and size at Wofford, but he’ll earn his stripes in no time with his workhorse mentality and high motor.
Bottom Line: There seems to be a hardening ceiling for Andy Enfield’s Trojan teams. Since 2016, USC has finished 49th, 53rd, 51st, 82nd and then 55th last year in Kenpom.com’s overall rankings. If anyone out there wants to go to war for USC as a top-40 team, be my guest – but I’ll be the kid in the back of class rolling his eyes…
The Mobley-led frontline will be dominant, but they need a reliable table setter to feed them and precise shooters to keep defenses from collapsing around them. Is Anderson the answer at point? He’s got the talent and tools to be a Pac-12 caliber point guard, but he’s far from that destination at this juncture, and the aforementioned transfer tribe won’t move the needle. Unless a reliable perimeter option emerges, USC will remain stuck on the PAC-12’s treadmill of mediocrity.
8. Colorado
Key Returners: McKinley Wright IV, D'Shawn Schwartz, Evan Battey, Dallas Walton
Key Losses: Tyler Bey, Lucas Siewert, Shane Gatling
Key Newcomers: Jeriah Horne (Tulsa)
Lineup:
Outlook: *Conspiracy theory*
Someone tipped off Tad Boyle to COVID-19’s inevitable wrath before the rest of us got the memo. Based on this insider information, Colorado decided to mail in the season a few weeks early.
There’s plenty of other more rational explanations as to what derailed the Buffs’ banner 2020 season in late February, but I’m sticking with my COVID conspiracy.
At 10-4 in the league standings with four games remaining, Colorado sat within striking distance of a Pac-12 title on February 21st. Then, it all came undone. Sloppiness and complacency contributed to four consecutive losses to close out the regular season, and then an embarrassing 14-point defeat at the hands of Washington State in the Pac-12 Tournament put the nail in the coffin. What was once a monumental year for Boyle and the program had quickly unraveled. Marquee moments, such as wins over Dayton and Oregon, suddenly felt like distant memories.
It’s hard to diagnose a single root cause of the late season collapse, but there’s another way to assess what transpired during those tumultuous three weeks: the Buffs may have simply folded to mounting regression pressure.
By early February, Colorado had cracked the top-20 in multiple analytic metric rankings, but we at the Weave remained skeptical that this was sustainable. We cited the Buffs’ unconscious shooting percentages as a marker for regression, a suspicious trend for a team not known for its long-range marksmanship. In Colorado’s first 14 conference games, the Buffs shot 38.2% from long distance, a clip that would’ve graded out as tops in the Pac-12 had the season ended right then. But over the final five games of the year (including the Pac-12 Tournament loss to Washington State), that rate plummeted to 23.1%.
The frustrating part for Boyle was that those shooting frustrations bled over to the defensive side of the ball. This mental block punctured the bedrock of Colorado’s ‘Boyle Ball’ identity, which is built on defense and physicality.
There will be no redemption tour in 2021 if CU can’t rebuild that sound defensive fortress, which is now void of its interior centerpiece in Tyler Bey. The reigning Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year was omnipresent on defense. When he wasn’t soaring through the air for a jaw-dropping block, he was pouncing on lazy perimeter passes, which usually ended in a thunderous exclamation mark throw down.
Unless Colorado fans were avid followers of the AAC, they’ll need a proper introduction to Bey’s replacement, Tulsa transfer Jeriah Horne. In many ways, Horne is a poor man’s Bey. He’s a jack-of-all-trades wing / forward hybrid, who can do a little bit of everything on both ends. This versatility has Boyle gushing about Horne’s potential:
"Jeriah is just what the doctor ordered for us," Boyle said in an interview with the SID this spring. "To bring in a guy of his caliber is going to lessen the blow (of Bey leaving) to a high degree. He can fill that void in a lot of different ways. He can shoot the ball, score, rebound the ball, a good defender with a lot of experience. The one thing you can't replace with a freshman is experience level."
Horne likely slides into the starting lineup alongside the Buffs’ big-3, McKinley Wright IV, D'Shawn Schwartz and Evan Battey. ‘Solid’ is the most appropriate descriptor for the Wright / Schwartz / Battey trio. They’re steady and reliable, leaving little question to what they’ll bring to the table night in and night out: In Wright, a seasoned floor general. In Schwartz, a smooth-scoring wing. In Battey, a bruising paint patroller.
However, at this stage in their careers, they are who they are. Wright’s leadership and intangibles are unrivaled, but he’s not a gamebreaking scorer who can take over a game. Schwartz can get hot from deep, but he needs to smooth out the shooting streaks - he was downright awful late in the year, converting just two of his last 19 threes, one of the anchor weights that sunk Colorado’s 3-point shooting into the gutter. Battey is a meat house inside who embodies the physicality pillar of ‘Boyle Ball’, but his feast-or-famine production, coupled with his foul-prone habits, prevents him from being a consistent dominant force in the middle.
Despite those minor flaws, that veteran nucleus pushed Colorado to the brink of an NCAA Tournament appearance last year and should keep the Buffs competitive in 2021. Boyle brought in an enticing crop of reinforcements to fill in the blanks, which he views as the rods of the program’s future foundation.
"It's an exciting, talented and deep class with multiple players at multiple positions," said Boyle. "We will lose a big chunk of our production (from five seniors) after next year so this class is about the future of Colorado basketball the next 2 to 4 years."
To some degree, this feels partly like a transition year – one in which the remnants of last year’s established core will shepherd in the future of CU basketball. Boyle confirmed this will be an equal opportunity situation for the freshmen, one in which all five rookies will have a chance to crack the rotation right away. With the looming departure of Wright, Battey and Schwartz next summer, Boyle will be eager to identify which freshmen distinguish themselves as worthy program-building cornerstones for 2022 and beyond.
The horse to bet on here is shooting guard Dominique Clifford. Clifford’s four-star pedigree is the prevailing reason for optimism, but he also has a positional opportunity advantage over his fellow freshmen. While the starting five appears set in stone, off guard Eli Parquett is probably the weakest link of the bunch. Parquett clocked big minutes over the last month of the year, but the fact that his minute uptick directly coincided with the Buffs’ late season meltdown tells me he didn’t impact winning. He’s a fine role player, but I’m sure Wright would welcome a more dynamic perimeter partner with open arms.
Clifford, once an undersized point guard, was the beneficiary of a late growth spurt. He now stands 6’5, a frame that unlocks a whole new dimension of his game. He can score over length at the rim, shoot over smaller defenders and check multiple positions on the defensive end. Don’t be surprised if Boyle anoints him a starting spot immediately.
Jabari Walker is the other rookie to track, a late bloomer who climbed nearly 100 spots in 247sports’ composite rankings, from middle-of-the-pack 3-star to a fringe 4-star (he was ranked 158th overall as of mid-July). The 6’8 forward likely opens the season as Horne’s backup at the second forward spot, but his rapid rise up the recruiting charts could put him in the hunt for a key rotational spot by season’s end. Keep in mind that towering 7-footer Dallas Walton is still in the mix, a former starter who’s slowly working his way back to peak form.
Bottom Line: Bey's defensive destruction will be sorely missed, but Wright, Battey and Schwartz’s return to the battlefield should keep the Buffs competitive. Under Boyle, Colorado basketball has performed like a steady mutual fund. There have been a few boon years, but the 50-80 range (from a national ranking perspective) are safe and steady returns, and I see no reason why this rendition will veer outside those bumpers.
9. Utah
Key Returners: Rylan Jones, Alfonso Plummer, Timmy Allen, Mikael Jantunen, Riley Battin, Branden Carlson
Key Losses: Both Gach
Key Newcomers: Ian Martinez, Pelle Larsson
Outlook: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…
The youth-induced trials and tribulations manifested in a tale of two seasons for the Utes last year. From non-conference fame to conference regression, it was a bumpy ride for Larry Krystkowiak. But the West Coast Coach K has been around the block a time or two. He’s seen it all. He knows as well as anyone that last year’s baby-faced (and injury-riddled) Utes are about to be shoved into the sophomore and junior year launch cannon.
However, the buildup to this highly anticipated 2021 campaign hit a few headwinds this summer. Both Gach boomeranged back home to Minnesota and fringe top-100 recruit Caleb Lohner got cold feet, asking for a release of his letter of intent (he ended up at in-state rival BYU). Gach’s stellar performance against Kentucky last season was the apex of his Utah tenure, but his time in Salt Lake City was tainted by head-scratching inconsistency and nagging injuries. Utes fans know they’re losing a take-over type talent with Gach’s departure, but they’ll also avoid the frequent headaches brought on by Gach’s mysterious game-to-game disappearances.
Even without Gach in the mix, I’d still advise holding on to that XL sized bottle of Advil this year. Gach’s exodus leaves a starting spot vacant, which feast-or-famine bucket getter Alfonso Plummer intends to grab. Plummer was anointed the cliché ‘breakout player to watch’ heading into last season, a function of a young, unproven roster in immediate need of production. A former scoring machine at Arizona Western College, Plummer’s eye-popping numbers and college experience fooled me into thinking he’d be a go-to-weapon for the Utes right away. Yet, Plummer barely left the pine during the non-conference portion of the season, reduced to an afterthought reserve while the Utes’ young guns took flight.
As Krystkowiak explained in late February, junior college players often experience the same ebbs and flows as the youngsters. Thus, their age advantage doesn’t always amount to a seamless transition to Division I, even with a year or two of college experience under their belt.
“I’ve come to the realization that he’s a better game player than he is a practice player,” Krystkowiak told the Deseret News in an interview on February 12th, which coincided with Plummer’s late season ascension. “He stretches the floor and does a nice job when he takes open shots. I put my money on him to make some shots.”
Krystkowiak now looks prophetic in his shot-making bet. Over the final six weeks of the season, Plummer drilled 34 of 68 from the land of plenty, capped off by a 11/16 shooting display against Oregon State in the Pac-12 Tournament’s opening round. Plummer’s season long conversion rate of 42% on 119 attempts should quell concerns that he simply caught lightning in a bottle down the stretch. Still, the Utes will need an offensive contingency plan in games when the lethal lefty goes cold.
No one’s more invested in Plummer’s 2021 development than Timmy Allen, the Utes’ offensive meal ticket. A true do-it-all wing, Allen was left to pick up the pieces when injuries and rotational shake-ups put Utah’s progress in reverse during Pac-12 play. Allen’s efficiency took a nosedive without a reliable sidekick, and defenses stymied his production by clogging the middle and walling off driving lanes. Additionally, Allen no longer benefitted from the element of surprise. The sneak-attack nature of his initial rise to prominence caught unsuspecting defenses off guard. After a few major outbursts, the cat was out of the bag – Allen’s scouting report was promptly changed from “lockdown defender and opportunistic scorer” to “terrific two-way player and devastating downhill slasher.”
If Plummer is the X-factor and Allen is the alpha, then Rylan Jones is Utah’s superglue. The undisputed emotional spirit animal of the Utes, Jones is the epitome of ‘grit and grind’. Pre-pubescent facial features notwithstanding, Jones’ fearlessness is infectious, an endearing trait that captivated Krystkowiak all throughout the year. Don’t expect him to break any NBA combine records, but his skill and feel for the game are why we strongly considered him for our All-Conference team.
No Krystkowiak-coached teams has ever been weak up front, a trend that should hold firm in 2021. Branden Carlson is the incumbent with the highest ceiling, a stick-figured 7-footer from South Jordan. Though not an official stat in the Pac-12 record books, Carlson tallied the most, “woah, where did that come from?” plays last year. Pardon my sample size bias here, but Carlson’s agile feet and quick finishing touch around the rim sold me hook, line and sinker. I watched him blow by slower bigs from the perimeter with a quick fake hand off and drive by, but also witnessed a confident outing shooting stroke begin to take form. Under Krystkowiak’s tutelage, Carlson might be on the cusp of a monster sophomore season.
Don’t let my soft spot for Carlson overshadow what Mikael Jantunen did last season, a fellow sophomore frontcourt mate who was quite literally the most efficient player in the Pac-12 on a per possession basis last season. Jantunen posted a robotic 128 O-Rating against Pac-12 foes, generating a ton of garbage points inside via the offensive glass. Januten should do additional damage in the post this season in a higher usage role – his positional awareness and ability to seal off post defenders is exceptional – but he’s too small to be relied upon as a primary rim protector on defense. Januten replaced Riley Battin in the starting lineup late in the year, but a Battin / Carlson combination seems to be the most logical crunchtime frontline pairing. Battin’s not a traditional inverse forward, but his shooting range supersedes both Januten and Carlson. Regardless of how Coach K hashes out these potential lineup options, Carlson, Januten and Battin bring a diverse skillset to the table. One might argue they can be exploited with physicality, but an extra year in the weight room for this triumvirate should do wonders.
While Utah was fairly proficient scoring out of the post last season, stubbornly relying on post ups as an offensive crutch is not the path to an efficient and balanced offense. West Coach Coach K has long been known to be a big man whisperer, but the 2019 season should serve as a friendly reminder to what a modern offense can unlock – one that spaces the floor with at least one or two shooting threats. Part of this falls on Plummer’s lap, but sharpshooting specialist Jaxon Brenchley will be the other man tasked with this mission in 2021. Brenchley enters his sophomore campaign with a 36% 3-point field goal percentage attached to his player card – he must shoot at least this well from distance this season to prevent any demotion in Coach K’s pecking order.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Utes mimicked a broader trend observed all around the Pac-12: a devaluation of zone. As the graphic above in the USC preview reveals, all the cool kids are retreating away from zone in favor of man-to-man schemes. Utah was no exception, playing zone on only 17% of all defensive possessions last year, down from 26%, 32%, and 35% the three seasons prior.
Ian Martinez and Pelle Larsson are the notable newcomers to watch out for this season, but their path toward immediate playing time could be deterred by the burgeoning sophomores and juniors ahead of them. Martinez is the best bet to make a splash, a long, wiry combo guard who can create his own looks and elevate over shorter defenders for tough shots. The Utes struggled to initiate offense late in the shot clock last year, a void Martinez could fill right away.
Bottom Line: Larry Krystkowiak’s extensive track record typically deserves the benefit of the doubt, but groans are starting to bubble up within the Utes’ fanbase. While I’m a staunch Krystkowiak advocate, the opposite side of the aisle’s argument holds plenty of ammunition. For starters, Utah hasn’t been dancing since the 3rd seeded 2016 squad was mauled by Gonzaga in the Round of 32. During that four-year drought, Coach K’s let a number of key assets slip through the cracks (see Gach this summer, Donnie Tillman after 2019 and Devon Daniels after 2017). Krystkowiak always does more with less, but when ‘more’ becomes synonymous with middle of the Pac-12 mush, the paradigm begins to shift. If Lady Luck blesses Utah with an injury-free season, this could be the breakthrough campaign Krystkowiak’s been itching for.
Tier 3
10. Washington State
Key Returners: CJ Elleby, Isaac Bonton, Noah Williams, Aljaz Kunc, Tony Miller
Key Losses: Jeff Pollard, Deion James, Jervae Robinson, Jaylen Shead
Key Newcomers: Andrej Jakimovski, Carlos Rosario, Dishon Jackson
Lineup:
Outlook: *The following excerpt was written in May, two months before CJ Elleby announced the soul-crushing decision to keep his name in the NBA draft, much to the dismay of Wazzu fans everywhere*
Akin to the Colorado and Stanford primers above, here’s another team with an NBA draft decision qualifier to kick off our preview – and this one looms large. In hopes of spurring some fodder on Pac-12 message boards, I’ll lead with this: CJ Elleby is (was) more important to Washington State than Tyrell Terry and McKinley Wright are / were to Stanford and Colorado, respectively.
Elleby is a playmaker, scorer, rebounder and defender all rolled into one premier package. The Pac-12 1st Teamer led the Cougs in scoring, rebounds, steals and blocks per game last year, a testament to his all-around, two-way brilliance.
*End excerpt*
That blurb sets the stage for WSU’s 2021 outlook. My bullishness on this freshman class can’t be contained but removing Elleby from the equation severely lowers the Cougars’ ceiling. Not even the Don of Data himself, Sir Kyle Smith, and his magic analytic potions can replenish Elleby’s value.
In a world without Elleby, Isaac Bonton, Elleby’s Robin last year, becomes paramount to this Cougar squad. When Bonton went down with a hip injury late in the year last season, it put a microscope on the Cougars’ offensive limitations. WSU dropped three games in a row with Bonton out of the lineup, posting putrid offensive performances of 0.72, 0.88 and 0.90 points per possession during that span. While the individual advanced metrics paint an inefficient image of Bonton, his replacement value is off the charts. Without him, WSU had no one capable breaking down the defense from the point of attack.
With few other scoring and playmaking threats in the fold last year (save Elleby), Smith had no choice but to stretch Bonton outside his comfort zone. Bonton can hunt his own shot in dire situations but he’s not as efficient in that alpha dog role scoring role. Rather, he’s best utilized as a true offensive conductor, flanked by other assertive scoring outlets around him.
This is where Smith is hoping his farm of young talent yields immediate returns this season. Last year’s freshmen class doesn’t hold a candle to this year’s haul, but Smith did find a diamond in the rough in Noah Williams, a useful swing man who carved out a niche as a defensive stopper last season. Tony Miller and Aljaz Kunc are two more versatile forwards at Smith’s disposal, both of whom offer multi-positional defensive value, a quality that Smith places a premium on. DJ Rodman, son of legendary defensive menace Dennis Rodman, also falls into that multi-positional bucket, but shot making was his ticket to Division I hoops. Rodman’s still in the fetal stages of his development, but he can help replace a chunk of the scoring and shooting shortages left behind by Elleby.
Injuries threw a wrench in both Miller and Kunc’s 2020 campaigns, but Miller got the last laugh. Kunc opened the season as a full-time starter but faded into oblivion down the stretch. Miller shined during Kunc’s disappearing act, delivering an unsuspecting scoring boost by out muscling and outmaneuvering opposing forwards inside. Miller just seems to have that nose for the rim, which is aided by a sturdy frame and springy hops.
The rampant injury wave also stunted 7-footer Volodymyr Markovetskyy’s growth early in the year, but the Ukrainian big man saved his best for last, turning in an impressive 11 point, 10-rebound effort against Arizona State in the second to last game of the year. Australian Ryan Rapp was yet another injury victim, a rising sophomore who faces a tall task in trying to nail down a spot in this crowded rotation.
If you’re lost in the maze of names above, stop, pause and take a breath… you’ll need a clutter-free memory bank to keep track of the freshmen, any one of whom might be a household name in the years to come. Kyle Smith and his staff are defying the odds on the recruiting trail, overcoming massive location and budget disadvantages to land one of the league’s top rookie classes. As of mid-July, 247sports slated the Wazzu 2020 freshmen class as the 4th best in the Pac-12, trailing only Arizona, Arizona State and Stanford. To clear my conscious of hypocrisy, it’s worth noting that deeper classes tend to be overrated by the recruiting services – we’ve been critical of this flaw before – but this still marks a colossal achievement for Smith and the program.
“I tell people, I think with the content of our roster, our approach has been: We just need to sign the best players we can, and we’ll figure it out,” Smith told the Moscow-Pullman Daily News this summer. “When you have wants, you have needs, and it just felt like, you know what, I’ve had to coach a lot of different styles anyway. ... We just wanna get the best guys we can get.”
Mission accomplished.
Props to the Seattle Times for running a comparable recruiting analysis, which illuminated the following: this recruiting class dwarfs any class brought in during the Ernie Kent era in terms of top-to-bottom pedigree. For context, here’s where WSU’s last six recruiting classes landed on the 247Sports national rankings chart:
2019: 99th
2018: 157th
2017: 129th
2016: 82th
2015: 84th
2014: 129th
As of mid-July, this lauded 2020 group sat at 31st overall, an unthinkable ranking for a perennial Pac-12 punching bag. Dishon Jackson was once the crown jewel – an interior beast who will immediately bolster the frontline – but he was usurped by a pair of four-star prospects, Andrej Jakimovski and Carlos Rosario, in the hype meter. A Macedonian product, Jakimovski is right in Smith’s international recruiting wheelhouse – that is, an underrated and under-recruited target, nowhere to be found on marquee programs’ radars. The tape makes Jakimovski out to be a mismatch nightmare at the 4, a dual-threat scorer who can put it on the deck and stroke it from distance.
Rosario is another foreign import, a Dominican Republic product who played his last two years of prep ball in California. He’s a wiry slasher with daddy-long leg strides, and, as the clip below proves, a ferocious finisher at the tin:
The rest of the rookie crop are also worth mentioning (Efe Abogidi, TJ Bamba and Jefferson Koulibaly), but I’m sick of playing the name game. The point is clear – there is a fruitful fountain of youth brewing in Pullman, Washington.
Bottom Line: Welcome to a new normal, Coug nation. The pistons of the Kyle Smith regime are firing on all cylinders, with recruiting, player development and system implementation all well ahead of schedule. The combination of Elleby’s surprising departure and the recent Pac-12 uprising explain the anticlimactic 10th place prediction, but, even without Elleby back in the saddle, the Cougars could field their best team since the Klay Thompson-led 2011 squad (which made a deep NIT run). Good riddance, Ernie Kent.
11. Oregon State
Key Returners: Ethan Thompson, Zach Reichle, Alfred Hollins, Jarod Lucas, Gianni Hunt
Key Losses: Tres Tinkle, Kylor Kelley, Antoine Vernon, Sean Miller-Moore
Key Newcomers: Tariq Silver (JUCO), Rodrigue Andela (JUCO), Maurice Calloo (JUCO), Isaiah Johnson
Lineup:
Outlook: Openly discussing the 2016-17 basketball season in public qualifies as cruel and unusual punishment in the courts of Corvallis, Oregon. A year removed from an NCAA Tournament appearance in Wayne Tinkle’s 2nd season, the Beavers imploded in epic proportions after Tres Tinkle suffered a season ending injury in the sixth game of the year. A strong case could be made that the 2017 Beavers will go down as one of the worst Power-6 conference teams in the last decade. They crossed the finish line with a 5-26 overall record (1-17 in conference), and nearly fell into the 300s in KenPom.com’s overall rankings.
Upon Baby Tinkle’s return to the ring in 2018, he became Oregon State’s bell cow for three years running. Tres’ limitless versatility masked his father’s recruiting shortcomings, but his time in Corvallis has finally expired. Now, the warts of lackluster talent are about to surface without Tres pinning it all together. Since 2017-18, only 11 players in the country accounted for more wins than Tinkle, an astounding achievement for a team that mustered just 52 wins over that span:
There’s simply no scenario in which these Beavers don’t regress without Tinkle – the question is whether the inevitable fall is a minor tumble or a full-blown nosedive…
Fortunately, the final remnant of Oregon State’s nepotism-inflated talent, Ethan Thompson, is back for one last dance. Thompson was a stellar deputy scorer behind his brother Stephen and Tres the past two years, but for OSU to be competitive in 2021, he’ll need to be a messiah. His running mates Alfred Hollins and Zach Reichle are not Pac-12 caliber starters and will likely be miscast as 2nd and 3rd bananas on offense. That leaves the Beavers starving for a secondary creator to flank Thompson.
A pair of rising sophomores, Gianni Hunt and Jarod Lucas, could be the answer, but they’ve yet to play without the Tres Tinkle training wheels. Lucas is a flammable scorer and caught fire in a few games last year, but he cozied up to an easy catch-and-shoot role with Tinkle and Thompson commanding defensive attention. Hunt displayed a more well-rounded offensive repertoire in his rookie campaign, but he was far from efficient as a reserve.
The aforementioned pessimism explains why Tinkle hit the transfer hotline hard this offseason. He struck out on Matthew Moyer (Vandy) and Cam Parker (Sacred Heart), two early targets who could’ve filled critical positional needs, but a beacon of hope exists in three lauded JUCO prospects, Tariq Silver, Maurice Calloo and Rodrigue Andela. We’ve been duped by JUCORecruiting’s Top-100 rankings in years past, but top-30 prospects typically make immediate contributions at their D1 destinations.
Silver is seeking redemption after fumbling away his first Division I opportunity at Eastern Michigan. After redshirting his first year on campus, Silver barely made a dent in the rotation as a redshirt freshman, ultimately prompting the urge for a change of scenery.
"I wanted a bigger role,'' Silver said in an interview with the Albany-based Times Union paper this winter. "Coach (Rob Murphy) felt like he had his guy at my position. I didn't want to take a back seat, so I felt like it was the best thing to try to find a place where I could be the player I want to be. I chose to go juco."
Silver reenters the Division I arena with a fined-tune sniper rifle for a jump shot, a weapon he didn’t have at EMU. He drained 46% from long distance last season at Tallahassee, showcasing pinpoint accuracy off movement, and knocked down 83% from the charity stripe. Despite Silver’s failed first mission in the MAC, he’s clearly transformed his game and picked a perfect landing spot at Oregon State, where he’ll be gifted a plethora of opportunities to shine.
Calloo’s another promising piece, a former 3-star prospect from the esteemed Oak Hill Academy. Calloo clocked 11 minutes a game at Oklahoma State as a freshman in 2019 but detoured to JUCO powerhouse Indian Hills after he was dismissed from the team for vandalism. Calloo’s a confident shooter from distance, which could make him a useful inverse forward at the 4 or the 5.
Calloo’s skill package and high school pedigree imply a higher ceiling, but Andela is the safer bet to produce right away. Andela’s a brawny workhorse who relishes at being a glorified garbage man up front, possessing an explosive burst that should translate well on the defensive end. Calloo and Andela may have a leg up over forward incumbents Roman Silva and Dearon Tucker, the only leftovers from this summer’s frontline purge (Kylor Kelley graduated and Payton Dastrup transferred to an NAIA school). There are pockets of potential in the frontcourt hopper, but none will match the defensive destruction of Kelley, the Pac-12’s top shot blocker on a per possession basis for two straight years.
Bottom Line: To all frequent flyers on the Weave preview series, you’ll notice we’ve been singing the same sad song about Oregon State basketball for three straight years. Only three Power-6 basketball programs, including Pac-12 foes Cal and Washington State, are more strapped for cash than OSU. The frugal spending has severely hampered recruiting, forcing Tinkle to turn over every possible stone on the transfer wire. He hauled in a few prominent JUCO fish in this cycle, but they won’t mitigate the loss of his son Tres, the Beavers’ Six Million Dollar Man since 2017.
12. California
Key Returners: Matt Bradley, Andre Kelly, Grant Anticevich, Lars Thiemann, Joel Brown, D.J. Thorpe, Kuany Kuany
Key Losses: Paris Austin, Kareem South
Key Newcomers: Makale Foreman (Stony Brook), Ryan Betley (Penn), Monty Bowser, Jalen Celestine
Lineup:
Outlook: This may sound unsettling, but there’s no need to sugarcoat it: Mark Fox has a fetish for grimy hoops. In a renaissance era of offensive innovation, Fox has turned a cold shoulder to cosmetically pleasing basketball.
As the chart above reveals, Fox’s offense was a piece of dry toast last season. In his defense, the makeshift roster still wreaked of the Wyking Jones stench, leaving Fox minimal wiggle room for offensive creativity. The following quote from Fox’s introductory presser last summer subtly hinted that last year’s offense was destined to be dull.
“As fast as we can play well” is a euphemism for “there ain’t a lot to work with here, so we’re gonna take it slow to start”.
Sarcastic slander aside, Fox’s guinea pig year in Berkeley actually went quite well. Last year’s roster was an amalgamation of spare parts, which miraculously tallied seven conference wins. It’s still early, but Fox appears to be steering the Cal reconstruction project in the right direction.
Matt ‘Meat and Potatoes’ Bradley is the hallmark of Cal’s budding young core. Bradley’s burly frame doesn’t jive with his feathery soft shooting touch, but he’s a stone-cold driller from long range. Despite receiving minimal help from his backcourt supporting cast last season, Bradley still lit it up last year without suffering a dip in efficiency. Two new grad transfer installations will take the onus off Bradley’s broad shoulders, arming Cal with… wait… one of the most prolific shooting triumvirates in the entire Pac-12?!?!
Penn import Ryan Betley will inject instant offense to the Bears’ backcourt, a former All-Conference performer in the city of Brotherly Love. Like Bradley, Betley’s a big guard (6’5 200 pounds), but he abandoned that physical advantage last year in the Ivy. After attempting 111 free throws in his standout 2018 campaign, Betley shot just 30 free throws last season. This crippled his offensive efficiency, especially while he endured a season-long shooting slump from beyond the arc. If Betley can turn back the clock and rekindle that sophomore season magic circa 2017-18, he could turn out to be one of the most impactful newcomers in the Pac-12 this year.
The same could be said for Makale Foreman, a Stony Brook transfer who’s in line to assume the de-facto point guard role this year. If Fresno State transfer Jarred Hyder is unable to secure a waiver, Foreman may become the offensive front man. With Joel Brown being the only other eligible point guard on the current roster, Fox will need Foreman to emerge as a viable creator and shot maker. Foreman isn’t a prolific passer and may be slightly out of his comfort zone as a lead ball handler, but he’s an arsonist from long distance. Foreman canned 102 triples last year at a 37% clip, a validation of his 40% 3-point conversion rate during his last season at Chattanooga in 2018. Now at his third collegiate destination in as many years, Foreman’s flamethrower jumper has the ability to swing one or two games in Cal’s favor all by itself – last season, Foreman hit 5 or more threes in a game on eight different occasions. Collectively, Foreman, Betley and Bradley have the power to debunk all those aforementioned perceptions about Mark Fox’s vanilla offense. At minimum, they’ll cleanse the palate of Cal fans still suffering from the terrible aftertaste of Paris Austin and Kareem South’s horrid shooting.
The Bears’ shooting revival should be aided by quasi stretch forward Grant Anticevich, a forgotten leftover of the Wyking Jones dark ages. Anticevich carved out a spot in Fox’s rotation last year with a 23-point explosion against Cal Baptist in November, but he endured a serious shooting slump throughout Pac-12 play, connecting on just 29% of his 52 attempts against conference opponents. Anticevich will be rejoined by Andre Kelly up front, arguably the Bears’ most improved player last year. Kelly fits like a glove in Fox’s system, a bruising 255-pound forward who scraps and claws for every missed shot on both ends. He held his own as the primary rim protector despite being relatively undersized, but 7-footer Lars Thiemann and 6’10 Kuany Kuany present upsized options at the 5, if needed.
Bottom Line: *BREAKING* Cal might actually be fun next year!
The Foreman, Bradley and Betley trio can light it up, but the Foreman / Betley package doesn’t come without risk. Betley hasn’t been in prime form since 2018 and Foreman’s racked up a lot of mileage in the America East and SoCon, which aren’t in the same weight class as the Conference of Champions. To Fox’s credit, his teams always dig in on the defensive side of the ball, but he’ll have to polish up last year’s offensive turd to climb any higher in the Pac-12 standings this season.