-Matt Cox

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Johni Broome, So., Morehead St.
Co-Coaches of the Year: Penny Collins, Tennessee St. / Mike Pelphrey, Tennessee Tech
Newcomer of the Year: Carter Collins, R Sr., Murray St.
Freshman of the Year: Hercy Miller, Tennessee St.

Tier 1

1. Belmont

Key Returners: Grayson Murphy, Luke Smith, Ben Sheppard, Caleb Hollander, Nick Muszynski, JaCobi Wood
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Will Richard, Isaiah Walker 

Lineup:

Outlook: Rick Byrd, Casey Alexander, Joe Schmoe.

It doesn’t matter who’s strolling the sidelines. Belmont will forever be the hunted in the OVC.

But, ‘forever’ now has an expiration date! The Bruins’ impending promotion to the Missouri Valley comes on the heels of Jacksonville State and Eastern Kentucky’s departures. Get your licks in while you can, Bruins. You won’t find any UT Martin’s or SIU Edwardsville’s in the Valley.

Any doubts about Alexander’s ability to uphold the standards set forth by his predecessor, Rick Byrd, are extinct. From a tactical perspective, Alexander’s mostly charted the same course as Byrd. Byrd slowly cozied up to transition basketball in his twilight years, and Alexander has kept his foot on the gas, too. However, Alexander has made slight stylistic modifications of his own. 

The chart below (data from Synergy) captures these subtle differences, predominantly applicable to the half-court offense. Byrd’s sublime offense always incorporated a steady stream of pick-n-roll action. Under Alexander’s watch, the Bruins rely on other motion concepts, as the PnR continues to dwindle in importance:

Also highlighted at the bottom is the upshot in post-up usage. This is less about philosophical differences between Alexander and Byrd, and more about, what we call, the ‘Moose effect’.

Nick Muszynski, the Bruins’ baron on the block, has been the hub of the Belmont’s half-court offense for years. Despite a minor injury, which reduced his workload, Moose still ruled the paint like a ruthless dictator against downtrodden OVC frontlines.

Behind Moose, this roster is near bulletproof. Alexander will once again sit behind the wheel of a Ferrari with every bell and whistle imaginable. 

With all due respect to Moose, Grayson Murphy is the undisputed heartbeat of this team. Is it fair to call him the mid-major Russell Westbrook? Take issue with it as you please, but he’s a triple-double threat every time he steps on the floor. Murphy’s foot is perpetually nailed to the gas pedal, be it as a defensive pest in the backcourt or an offensive catalyst on the break. His rebounding production is mind boggling (cough, Westbrook) and his shooting percentages are in the stratosphere. This chart says “he matters”:

Think of Luke Smith as the ‘Watson’ to Murphy’s ‘Holmes’. Alexander struck gold mining in the Division-III well, which is where he discovered the savvy southpaw. Smith is automatic from long distance when he has time and space to drill it and flashed anticipatory defensive instincts on the other end as well, racking up over two steals a game last year. 

Jacobi Wood and Even Brauns may feel like adolescents relative to their elder peers, but they represent the next wave of Belmont stars. Wood was a temporary starter early on last season, but willingly embraced a reserve role once Ben Sheppard was ready. If Wood stays the course, an OVC Player of the Year trophy is in his future. He handles the rock on a string, able to slither past any defender who dare check him. The beauty with the Murphy / Smith / Wood triumvirate is that they’re all point guards by trade. Alexander can coach at peace knowing he will always have two heady decision makers initiating the offense, which shows up in the Bruins’ OVC leading turnover rate last year.

Alexander likes to toggle between three guard lineups and two guard / two wing lineups, the latter of which are filled by Sheppard and Caleb Hollander. Hollander and Sheppard were both limped out of the gate last season but are critical cogs in the Bruin machine. Sheppard’s defensive versatility on the wing is invaluable, especially on a team already flushed with shooting (Hollander’s forte). Still, both should retain their spots in the starting lineup, while Wood resumes his role as 6th man.

When you factor in the depth at Alexander’s disposal this year, it becomes an unfair fight – at least, relative to the OVC’s ‘Tier 2’. Brauns, along with Frank Jakubicek and Derek Sabin, will be bundled together and packaged as a Moose insurance policy. Minutes will come at a premium for these backup bigs, but they must stay ready – Moose hit a few injury speed bumps last season, which immediately ejected this trio into the fire. 

We’re almost done, I promise.

On the perimeter, EJ Bellinger will round out the edges while a pair of 3-star rookies, Will Richard and Isaiah Walker, will likely have to wait their turn.

Bottom Line: Could this be Belmont's best team, *gulp*, ever? While the analytics weren’t head-over-heels in love with the Bruins last year (they fell outside top-100 for second year in a row), they were *this* close to running the table in the regular season. The Bruins caught a dangerous Samford team playing at their absolute apex early on – it was also Sheppard’s first game of the year – and didn’t lose again until the end of the season, coinciding with Moose’s injury.

The ceiling of this year’s rendition doesn’t seem quite as high as the 2019 squad, but the gap isn’t substantial, either. Thus, while an at large berth is certainly attainable, the automatic bid seems like the more likely path back to the dance for these Bruins.

2. Murray State

Key Returners: Tevin Brown, K.J. Williams, Justice Hill, DaQuan Smith
Key Losses: Chico Carter, Desmond Robinson
Key Newcomers: Carter Collins (Davidson), Trae Hannibal (South Carolina), Damiree Burns (Southern), Jordan Skipper-Brown (EIU), Elijah Farr (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: Deciphering which teams deserve a mulligan for last year’s shortcomings is a delicate, and largely subjective, process. Yet, upon further review, I remain stubbornly convinced that Murray State qualifies for such an asterisk. 

Yet, I still can’t forgive the Racers for a few inexcusable duds last year. Chief among those head scratching performances was a pathetic late game meltdown against Eastern Illinois on January 7th. While it was one of the few times EIU was near full strength last season, the Racers were staring down the barrel at a 1-4 start in league play. They held a cozy lead deep into the second half and seemed poise to cruise to a key league victory – that is, until a series of idiotic shots and boneheaded turnovers gifted EIU the game on a silver platter.

That mental collapse was a microcosm of a team that looked apathetic at times last year. The Racers were still able to ‘out talent’ the dregs of the OVC, but the warts were unearthed by Belmont, Morehead State and Jacksonville State, three of the top-4 teams in the league. The Racers went 0-7 against that trio, and were swept by EIU, which accounted for nine of their 10 conference losses. All in all, it was a frustrating season in western Kentucky. 

Matt McMahon gutted a good chunk of the roster this summer. Could this be the palate cleansing needed to wipe away last year’s sour taste?

Carter Collins and Trae Hannibal are two accomplished guards hailing from strong programs, and the odds-on favorites to start from day 1. They will, in tandem, replace Chico Carter, who finally lived up to his recruiting prophecy last season.

Carter wasn’t the Racers’ ‘best player’, so to speak, but he might’ve been the ‘most important’. Hear me out. If you track the ebbs and flows of Murray’s roller coaster season, the oscillations are largely tied to Carter’s individual ups and downs.

Carter was a bit clunky out of the gate, at least by his standards, as McMahon eased him into the rotation early on. However, he started to hit his stride as the season matured, prompting McMahon to promote him to the starting lineup following a loss at Morehead State on February 4th. From that point forward, Carter took flight…

That spike is considerable, though it’s slightly tarnished by a poor performance in the OVC Tournament loss to Jacksonville State.

Ok, get to the point, Matt.

Carter’s ascension helped the Racers stay in the hunt down the stretch, despite a myriad of other headwinds. Filling his shoes from a shot creation and playmaking perspective is pivotal, which is where Collins and Hannibal come into play.

Collins, a cerebral combo guard, should be just what the doctor ordered for McMahon. All he did was win at Davidson, and, naturally, brings a refreshing ‘adult in the room’ maturity to this locker room. Hannibal is actually more captivating from a pure talent perspective talent… 

… but he was feast-or-famine during his two-year stint at South Carolina. Against Georgia last year (seen in clip above), Hannibal stuffed the stat sheet to the tune of 15 points, eight rebounds, five assists and four steals. If we see more of that version this season, McMahon committed highway robbery in nabbing Hannibal.

Collins and Hannibal will share the sugar with one of the best shooters in college basketball, Tevin Brown, whose tools extend far beyond his long-range flamethrower of a jump shot. Brown has slowly evolved into a quasi-creator on offense, owning a larger share of the passing and playmaking duties the last three seasons. My lone nitpick with Brown, specific to last season, is his reluctance to attack the rim. He only attempted 59 free throws all season long, an enormous dip from the year prior (194 attempts). McMahon harped on this chasm in Blue Ribbon’s summer preview, so look for Brown to harness the same rim-hunting assertiveness we saw in 2020. 

DaQuan Smith, a full-time starter in 2020, is the biggest wild card. He seems to have fallen out of favor with McMahon, as Justice Hill swiped his minutes last year. Hill didn’t exactly torch the nets either, but he’s lightning quick at the point of attack and can the change the game on both ends with his speed.

McMahon was dead set on playing Brown at the 3 position last year, reserving two spots for the other guards and two spots for the forwards. If Collins, Hannibal, Smith and Hill bring their A-game, he’ll likely mimic that approach again. However, a stout crop of wings is a source of temptation for McMahon to also toy with larger lineups.

Jordan Skipper-Brown comes over from conference rival Eastern Illinois, where he dominated the Racers in the second of their two meetings last year (if you can’t beat em, poach em!). Damiree ‘DJ’ Burns will have to adapt to stiffer competition, but he was productive for a strong Southern squad. JUCO stalwart Elijah Farr could be a fan favorite in no time, a reigning NJCAA All-American at Olney in Illinois. Here I go with player comparisons again, but he reminds me of Anthony Lamb – built like bulldozer at 6’8 240 pounds, Farr is deceptively fluid off the bounce and can also drain it from downtown: 

Oh yeah, I almost forgot about KJ Williams, who only led the Racers in scoring and rebounding last year. There’s little else for Williams to prove skill wise, as evidenced by a stunning 41% 3PT% clip last season. Just two years ago, Williams attempted just five triples all season as a rookie. Now, he’s a legit inside-out scoring threat. He can do damage in pick-n-pop or the old-fashioned way, down low in the mixer.

Bottom Line: I’ve officially put last season in the rear-view mirror, and I urge all Racer fans to do the same. This roster is robust, and I trust McMahon to iron out the moving parts within the rotation. It’s unfair to compare this team to Ja Morant’s juggernaut, but the 2022 rendition should find its level near the 2020 watermark, which coincided with the Racers’ split regular season championship. It’s tempting to pick the Racers to win the league outright, but Belmont’s continuity and institutional success give them a slight edge.

3. Morehead State

Key Returners: Ta'lon Cooper, Skyelar Potter, Johni Broome, Tyzhaun Claude
Key Losses: DeVon Cooper, James Baker, KJ Hunt
Key Newcomers: Tray Hollowell (Wofford), Jaylon Hall (Wright State), Jake Wolfe (Lipscomb) 

Lineup:

Outlook: Not everyone wants to bury the 2021 COVID season 10-feet under. Morehead soared above the OVC pack, putting the exclamation mark on a breakthrough year with an OVC Tournament title.

If you produced a ‘2021 Morehead after movie’, you’d probably skip ahead to the conference portion of the season, omitting highlights from a few rough outings early on. Morehead was tossed around like a rag doll in three of their first four games, blasted by Kentucky, Richmond, and Ohio State – yes, those are heavyweights by OVC standards, but this team proved it could hang with the cream of the crop by season’s end. It simply took time to click.

After early conference defeats at the hands of Eastern Kentucky and SIU Edwardsville, the Eagles went on a tear. Once Morehead shifted into overdrive, the OVC soon became a two-horse race.

This chart from BartTorvik isolates the OVC’s net efficiency ratings from January 20th onward:

In hindsight, we should’ve expected the early turbulence. Soon-to-be star Johni Broome was only a young fawn in his development stage, still adjusting to the size and speed of the Division-I game. Devon Cooper hadn’t played since 2019, save a few brief appearances last season, and needed time to find his groove. Skyelar Potter (Wright State), Jaylen Sebree (FAU) and KJ Hunt (JUCO) were brand new puzzle pieces, delaying a seamless integration into Preston Spradlin’s scheme.

Morehead waives goodbye to three starters, but Ta’Lon Cooper, a fringe starter last year, is back in the fold. That leaves two notable vacancies in the primary rotation, which are likely filled by Tray Hollowell and Jaylon Hall.

Pleased with the work of ‘Mr. Potter’ in his debut season last year (an OVC All Newcomer Team honoree), Spradlin went back to the Wright State well for Hall, one of Potter’s old teammates. They say one man’s trash is another man’s treasure, an apt idiom to characterize Hall’s arrival. In a loaded Wright State rotation, Hall watched his minutes slowly dwindle late in the year. It wasn’t so much Hall’s deteriorating play – he was exceptionally efficient in a reserve role over the final two months of the year – but the abundance of riches up and down WSU’s roster. Hall’s regarded as a stout defender and knockdown shooter, the former of which is mandatory on this defensive-minded squad. 

As for Hollowell, the Wofford transfer, he boomerangs back to the Bluegrass State after a roller coaster ride in the Carolinas. Hollowell bounced back last season after a troubling 2020 campaign, but still hasn’t made the leap some expected back in 2019 (for context, he was a reserve on the Wofford at-large team that nearly took down Kentucky). Hollowell’s got that streaky scorer gene, blessed with the ability to run hot and take over a game with buckets in bunches – but again, consistency will be the key.

Even with three starters walking out the door, this 2022 roster DNA is closely linked to last season. James Baker departs but the 6’5 Hall can impersonate his role as the quasi-4, while injury-ridden Jaylen Sebree, a multi-talented 6’7 swingman, is still lurking with major upside. That leaves Jake Wolfe as the de-facto third banana of the D-I transfer infusions. Wolfe is another plus sized guard / wing that can get to the cup.

Finally, there’s Broome, the linchpin of this burgeoning program. A rookie big with Broome’s footwork, touch and general basketball IQ is a unicorn, especially at the mid-major ranks. Spradlin hit the lottery with Broome, who will now have to read and react to constant defensive attention. We’ll see his passing vision on full display this year, as OVC opponents will have no choice but to double him inside. Here’s a few clips of his OVC title game domination against Belmont:

Broome’s dazzling rookie campaign drowned out Tyzhaun Claude’s standout freshman season in 2020. Claude averaged 11 and 6 in conference play but was trending toward nightly double-doubles by the end of the season. If fresh and rejuvenated – Claude is coming off an ACL tear – Morehead may boast the best 1-2 frontcourt punch in the conference.

Bottom Line: Many OVC teams were crippled by COVID last season, which paved the way for Morehead’s banner year. But this team was far from a fluke and nothing about the summer roster shake up ruins last year’s foundation. Swapping out Cooper, Baker and Hunt for Hollowell, Hall, Wolfe and Claude (assuming he can return to form) seems like a wash, which bodes well for Morehead’s hope of a 2021 rerun. Belmont’s likely the better bet to win the league but Morehead’s size and physicality, especially with Broome at the epicenter, may be the Bruins’ kryptonite.

Tier 2

4. Tennessee State

Key Returners: Marcus Fitzgerald, Shakem Johnson, Carlos Marshall
Key Losses: Mark Freeman, Ravel Moody, Josh Linder
Key Newcomers: Kenny Cooper (Western Kentucky), Jalen Dupree (Samford), Dedric Boyd (Illinois St.), Emmanuel Dowuona (Purdue), Kassim Nicholson (UAB), Christian Brown (Georgia), David Acosta (JUCO), Hercy Miller

Lineup:

Outlook: Next stop, the OVC’s second tier…

Ouch!

Ok, well, here we are, miles below the top three premium cuts, a recurring theme in the Ohio Valley in recent years. Parsing through the mush of teams not named Belmont, Murray and Morehead is like scuba diving through mounds of seaweed. From here on out, rank ordering the OVC will be a guessing game. 

That said, Tennessee State and Tennessee Tech probably deserve a ‘mezzanine’ level of their own.

Penny Collins, now on his fourth at bat in Nashville, can’t put last season’s strike out behind him any faster – a 4-19 overall record will forever stain Collins’ resume. However, extraneous circumstances (read: injuries and COVID) were insurmountable and should exonerate Collins of any legitimate blame. One year prior, he compiled 18-wins on the way to a 5th place OVC finish.

The injury bug bit all three of Collins’ accomplished returners in varying capacities. A hip injury kept Carlos Marshall at bay for the entire 2020-21 campaign – he was Collins’ go-to bucket getter in 2020. All signs indicated that Marshall was fully recovered and ready for resurrection, until he missed the October 27th exhibition against Trevecca Nazarene. This could’ve been strictly precautionary, though, so we will cross our fingers for now.

Shakem Johnson started every game alongside Marshall in 2020, a streak he carried through mid-January last season, until an undisclosed injury against SIUE cost him three straight games. Upon his return, fittingly against SIUE, Johnson was a completely different player: 

Few people were paying attention at that point in the season but extrapolating Johnson’s monster month of February over an entire year would put him on the OVC POTY shortlist – that’s how good he was.

Johnson’s explosion coincided with Marcus Fitzgerald injuring his toe, which kept him on the pine for eight of TSU’s final nine contests. While Johnson was the star of the second half, Fitzgerald shined the brightest in the first stanza. The dynamo quickly put the league on notice, emerging as one of the OVC’s top rookies.

Even with those building blocks intact, Penny Collins was hardly satisfied. He’s raising the standards for inbound talent at TSU and this haul of new arrivals is proof:

• Western Kentucky defector Kenny Cooper could be the missing link in this Tigers backcourt. I’ve always held Cooper in the highest regard, a savvy floor general that can orchestrate an offense. Relative to the enigmatic Freeman, Cooper represents a safer, less erratic alternative at point (of note: Freeman turned it over 18 times in his final three games last year).

• Emmanuel Dowuona (Purdue) and Christian Brown (Georgia) are bonafide power conference transfers. Dowuona may blossom into the best rim guardian in the OVC, a monstrous 6’10 forward with excellent instincts. Brown, more of a hybrid wing, brings trampoline-caliber hops to the frontline.

• Dedric Boyd is destined for the token off-the-bench energy jolt role. OVC fans may remember his rookie tenure at EKU, where he was a prolific, albeit inefficient, scorer.

• Jalen Dupree is another OVC boomerang, looking to rekindle his best playing days in his old playground. Dupree was a full-time starter on Murray State’s 2018 NCAA Tournament team, before detouring to Samford. He’s a load on the block and a terror to keep off the glass.

• Kassim Nicholson (UAB) and David Acosta (JUCO) represent the defensive-minded additions – Acosta more of a big, Nicholson more of a wing – and should fit well defensively in Collins’ zone pressure scheme.

This intimidating group of newcomers should light a fire under Monty Wohal and Evan Joyner, two incumbents who had their moments last year.

Long term, this talent influx to Nashville could become the norm. This summer, Collins partnered with Jerry Stackhouse at Vanderbilt to host a Nashville-based pro day, an unheard event for a low major program, much less an HBCU program. This type of showcase would be an immediate competitive advantage over OVC competition.

It doesn’t hurt to have Master P’s son, Hercy Miller, commit to your program on national television, either. The lauded prospect is a monumental get for Tennessee State, and it’s easy to see why…

Bottom Line: Both Tennessee State and Tennessee Tech cast wide nets in the transfer ocean and, in one fell swoop, maneuvered into the top-5 (as least, as I see it). It won’t be enough to go 15 rounds with Belmont, Murray or Morehead, though, but hey, anything can happen at the OVC Championship.

5. Tennessee Tech

Key Returners: Jr. Clay, Keishawn Davidson, Kenny White, Shandon Goldman, Amadou Sylla, Austin Harvell, Dane Quest, Marcus Hopkins
Key Losses: Damaria Franklin
Key Newcomers: Diante Wood (Jacksonville), Mamoudou Diarra (Cincinnati), John Pettway (South Alabama), Danny Ramsey (Xavier), Caleb Christopher (Arizona St.), Isaiah Nelson-Ododa

Lineup:

Outlook: If you’re exhausted after dragging through all of Tennessee State’s newcomers, you won’t find any relief here. Akin to TSU, Tennessee Tech’s outlook is a story about a talent-hoarding head coach seeking that evasive big break.

John Pelphrey’s compiled an impressive roster, complete with a dynamic backcourt and a dangerous frontline, bolstered by key acquisitions via the transfer portal.

Whenever returning contributors are at risk of losing their prominence in the rotation, it’s usually a good sign. Such is the case here, as several important cogs in last year’s rotation will be challenged by either power conference down transfers or highly productive ‘lateral’ transfers.

Of the incumbents, only Jr. Clay and Keishawn Davidson are shoo-ins to retain high usage roles in 2022. Clay’s the ringleader, without question. The dynamite shot maker and shifty slasher etched his name on the OVC All Conference list last season (2nd Team). Clay’s a year older than Davidson but both have made steady progressions since their rookie campaigns, while strengthening the harmonious bond in their backcourt partnership. Minor injuries impeded such progress in 2020 but it was all systems go last year.

Damaria Franklin, TTU’s only notable loss, will be backfilled by Jacksonville transfer Diante Wood. Wood’s entire basketball career has been tainted by injuries, but he’s a productive scorer when right. If injuries flare up again, look for South Alabama import John Pettway to slingshot into the starting lineup. Pettway is overqualified to play third fiddle alongside Clay and Davidson, which underscores the wealth of talent percolating in this newcomer class. Caleb Christopher, brother of former ASU standout and 5-star prospect Josh Christopher, barely saw the floor at Arizona State, but he, too, could be rejuvenated in the OVC.

Most of TTU’s incumbents fall in the forward positional mold. From power wing to bruising big, Kenny White, Austin Harvell, Dane Quest and Amadou Sylla run the gamut of conventional forward prototypes. That foursome all clocked significant time last year but there’s a logjam for minutes, complicated by the returns of Shandon ‘Biggie’ Goldman and Marcus Hopkins, plus the arrivals of Mamoudou Diarra (Cincinnati) Danny Ramsey (Xavier) and Isaiah Nelson-Ododa (rookie).

For this frontline, fortifying the lane is mission critical. There’s no way to sugarcoat it – the Eagles were annihilated inside last year. 

The chart below, courtesy of Haslametrics, shows the highest opponent ‘NP%’ (shorthand notation for ‘Near Proximity FG%’) in the country last year. TTU opponents converted 66% from point blank range last year, both a function of poor rim protection and poor helpside rotational defense:

Diarra should get his shot to patch up these interior holes. He never amounted to much at UC, but this defense is longing for a blockade up front. It’s foolish to bet on 25-30 minutes night in and night out from either Diarra, or Ramsey, but they could amount to a net upgrade over Hopkins, Goldman’s platoon partner last season.

Perhaps more minutes for Dane Quest, who emerged as a lockdown wing stopper last year, could nudge the defense forward, as could a fully healthy Ramsey. It’s been a star-crossed career for the former Xavier transfer, but Ramsey was a 4-star, yes 4-star, recruit coming out of high score. Finally, there’s Nelson-Ododa, an immensely talented, multi-faceted big that seems like a long-term bet.

Regardless of how the pecking order shakes out, Pelphrey’s options are endless. Not only will the roster optionality come in handy, but the depth will act as a stopgap to any serious injuries. Also, depth is critical to enabling a highly competitive practice environment, which should benefit all parties – iron sharpens iron, as they say. 

Each position runs at least 2 to 3 players deep, but the real thump lies in the backcourt. Pelphrey likely won’t ignore the returning length on the wing but deploying 3 and 4-guard lineups is awfully tempting. For instance, a Clay, Davidson, Pettway and Wood 4-guard look would be a nightmare for opposing defenses to match up against.

Bottom Line: After a brutal battle with COVID last season, Pelphrey is ready to put the 2021 campaign behind him. The magnitude of talent and experience here is impressive, which could prompt Pelphrey to use 10-12 guys on any given night. Could this refurbished roster be the shot in the arm this program needs to climb the OVC ladder?

6. Southeast Missouri State

Key Returners: DQ Nicholas, Chris Harris, Eric Reed, Nana Akenten, Manny Patterson, Nolan Taylor, Nygal Russell
Key Losses: Darrious Agnew
Key Newcomers: Phillip Russell (Saint Louis) 

Lineup:

Outlook: Brad Korn walked into the eye of the storm. Picking up the pieces of Rick Ray’s forgettable tenure, Korn was swiftly greeted by a 2-6 start to the season. On top of that, three of those six losses came in overtime, a brutal ‘welcome to the Division-I jungle’ greeting for the first-year head honcho.

SEMO took it on the chin a few more times at the onset of conference play, but, by late January, the Redhawks were starting to round the corner. Unfazed by a ruthless schedule, one of multiple hyper condensed schedules induced by COVID, SEMO clawed its way back to a game shy of .500. No, it’s not medal worthy. But it was an impressive turnaround, and a sturdy building block for Korn’s second year (and beyond). 

Korn clearly won over the locker room in his inaugural season, convincing almost everyone of importance to run it back in 2022. The nucleus is now well versed with Korn’s style and culture, requiring no ‘back to basics’ precursors for a swath of newcomers.

Korn’s offense isn’t excessively complicated, though – in fact, the Synergy play type breakdown last season looks remarkably similar to 2020 (Ray’s last season):

On the other end, Korn’s impact was significant. He lit a fire under a defense stuck in a coma for all of 2020, the same defense that finished dead last in the OVC. Last year, Korn lifted the Redhawks to 5th.

A subtle inflection point in the season came when roundhouse Nolan Taylor suffered a knee injury. Korn reshuffled the deck, sliding Manny Patterson up to the 5 and put on his ‘center’ mask in Taylor’s stead. Patterson profiles as a secondary forward, aptly skilled and refreshingly mobile, but holding down the fort all by himself seemed like a tall task at the time. Patterson held his own, using his wily, long-limbed frame to bother opposing shots at the rim. Consequently, SEMO’s defense held serve without the brickhouse Taylor policing the paint. Nana Akenten, another plus athlete, returns to flank Patterson in the frontcourt. Transitioning from the Big Ten to the OVC was a shock to Akenten’s system, but he eventually found his groove as a ‘3-and-D’ tweener.

With Taylor’s availability for the 2021-22 campaign hanging in the balance, Korn will rest easy with Patterson’s return in the bag. When healthy, Taylor’s a colossal force with feathery touch inside – the unorthodoxy of his size and skill makeup catches opposing defenders off guard. Any production from him would be a big bonus. A second behemoth big in Nate Johnson will patiently await his number to be called and could be right in the mix if Taylor remains sidelined.

Switching gears to the perimeter, DQ Nicholas and Chris Harris will co-pilot the offense. The scouting report on Nicholas and Harris is simple: keep them out of the lane. Nicholas and Harris play with a ‘get to the rim at all costs’ mentality, perhaps influenced by shaky jump shots. Their persistence is usually rewarded, though, as this duo had a permanent residency at the charity stripe last year. Collectively, Harris and Nicholas racked up 243 free throw attempts and finished with the top-2 individual free throw rates in the OVC.

Eric Reed is the quintessential third banana to Nicholas and Harris. He’s the Redhawks’ token 3-point driller and should reap immediate benefits from Nicholas and Harris’ perpetual dribble penetration. Korn gave SEMO the green light to chuck it from the cheap seats, which underscores Reed’s ability to cash in on open looks.

Nygal Russell is a specialist in a different domain, defense, where his ballhawking caught Korn’s eye immediately. Saint Louis native Dylan Branson and SLU transfer Phillip Russell round out the perimeter rotation. Russell profiles as another perimeter pest, while Branson’s low volume, high accuracy marksman ship will surely come in handy.

Bottom Line: Korn’s ability to keep the roster superglued together speaks volumes about the respect he garnered last season. The Redhawks are flushed with size and athleticism, but skill continues to lag. The defensive tenacity acts as a high floor, but the ceiling is capped by a lackluster offense.

7. Austin Peay

Key Returners: Carlos Paez, Alec Woodard, Elton Walker
Key Losses: Terry Taylor, Jordyn Adams, Mike Peake, Reginald Gee
Key Newcomers: Tariq Silver (Oregon St.), Drew Calderon, Assane Diouf (Fresno St.), Cam Copeland (Charleston), Caleb Stone-Carrawell (Charlotte) 

Lineup: 

Outlook: Here’s your reigning OVC ‘Underachiever of the Year’, folks.

Crazy COVID scheduling notwithstanding, Peay fumbled away a juicy opportunity to climb the OVC ranks. A wonky hip erased any hopes of a breakout sophomore season for lauded point guard Jordyn Adams, leaving Terry Taylor on an island to lift the Governors out of the gutter. Bright spots emerged amongst the supporting cast but a collective refusal to defend anyone, anywhere, is what put the nail in the coffin.

It’s a new dawn and a new day for Peay, who will now be under the direction of former Duke player and assistant Nate James. The following excerpt is from James’ introductory presser from April, which sheds light on James’ desired commitment to the defensive end.

“We have to pressure the ball. If you can do that, you can control the head of the snake,” James told Clarksville NOW. “It makes it a challenge for any team to run their offense. I also want deflections. If we have active hands and are talking in practice, then that carries over to the game.”

For what it’s worth, James told Blue Ribbon he wants that pressure-first identity to bleed over to the offensive end as well, eyeing ‘an upbeat offense’ that will presumably get up and down.

However, James must tread lightly before throwing the kitchen sink at his new roster. At first glance, proven offensive performers are few and far between, as last year’s roster core was ripped to shreds by transfers and graduation. That’s not to say it’s a talent depleted roster – it’s that the talent is largely unproven, which warrants a skeptical eye. 

Carlos Paez will bring stability to James’ first season on the sidelines. With Adams hampered by his hip injury, Paez pounced on the blank space at point guard, emerging as one of the premier shooters in the OVC. The next phase of his evolution must involve attacking downhill, as Paez was content to do damage from long distance last year. Without Adams and Taylor, Paez will need to re-tune his scoring approach from ‘opportunistic’ to ‘aggressive’ to morph into the alpha-dog status.

Paez’s incumbent running mates, Alec Woodard and Elton Walker, are unique assets in their own regard. Woodard is coming off a serious sophomore slump, but his defensive instincts should catch James’ eye immediately. Walker’s elite athleticism should be moldable into a defensive weapon as well but he’s little more than a cutter and glass crasher on offense. DJ Peavy and Noel Scott sit on the outskirts of the primary rotation, the presumed backups to Paez at the point. Peavy notched a couple of spot starts last season, but ball security was his bugaboo for most of the year.

Projecting who will start is a toss-up, but it likely hinges on how James juggles this vast array of personnel prototypes. Cam Copeland and Caleb Stone-Carrawell fall in the ‘wing’ category, either of whom could separate themselves from the pack. James gushed about their versatility, claiming Copeland and Carrawell can play 4 to 5 positions, depending upon lineups and matchups. 

Copeland’s a fascinating late bloomer, now standing 6’7 thanks to a delayed growth spurt – for reference, Copeland was 6’5 160 pounds as a freshman at North Florida. Last year at Charleston, Copeland may have had that ‘a Ha!’ moment, as he cemented himself as an invaluable 6th man for the Cougars. Carrawell’s unique frame and skillset is both a blessing and a curse. He’s still searching for a position and identity, but this may be the perfect placemat to carve out his niche.

Tariq Silver could see time at the 3 and the 4, a hybrid guard / wing with a chiseled frame. Once a top-20 JUCO recruit before taking his talents to Oregon State, Silver’s been all over the world and back, starting at Eastern Michigan before rekindling his career on the JUCO circuit. He couldn’t make a dent in Oregon State’s rotation, but there’s no reason to think he can’t make an impact in the OVC.

Both true freshmen should see immediate burn, notably sharpshooter Drew Calderon, who canned 46% of his triples in a standout senior season in Texas. He’s on the shortlist of OVC rookie breakouts, especially with the cavernous void in outside shooting.

Corbin Merritt and Fresno import Assane Diouf have the inside track to be the main men in the middle, based mostly on experience, but expect James to toss 6’11 Elijah Hutchins-Everett into the mixer as well, a tantalizing prospect up front. Diouf never made a splash on the west coast, but he is a monster of a human. If that veteran timeshare proves insufficient or unreliable, Hutchins-Everett will be next in line.

Bottom Line: Nate James is beating the defense drum loudly in his offseason press clippings. After last year’s putrid defensive performance, he has a golden opportunity to tighten up the screws on that end right away. However, the offensive production of the incumbents and transfers is dicey at best, save Paez, which merits a downgrade in Peay’s 2021 prognosis. 

8. SIU Edwardsville

Key Returners: Shamar Wright, Lamar Wright, Cam Williams, Courtney Carter, Carlos Curtis
Key Losses: Sid Wilson, Philip Pepple, Mike Adewunmi
Key Newcomers: Shaun Doss (Arkansas Pine Bluff) 

Lineup: 

Outlook: Brian Barone just wants tranquility. Some semblance of normalcy. He’s not asking for the moon, guys:

“This is really the first summer since I’ve been head coach that has been normal,” Barone said in an interview on July 6. “In the first year, I took the job on the interim and you didn’t necessarily know who was and wasn’t on your team. You just hit the ground running. Last summer, we couldn’t be around each other. We had very limited team workouts. This is the first workout regiment that is going as planned.”

Sorry, Brian, but such adversity flare ups are part of the gig. There was certainly no reprieve from a health standpoint last year. Barone lost a pivotal interior piece, Philip Pepple, to injury a few weeks into the season. Pepple put up 13 points, 10 rebounds and two 2 blocks against LSU the second game of the year, a tease for what could’ve been – that is, the best rim protector in the OVC. 

Without Pepple, Barone was forced to play his wings out of position, similar to Brad Korn’s tactical tweak in the wake of Nolan Taylor’s injury. Sid Wilson, the former UConn transfer and top-100 recruit, was talented enough to hold his own in this foreign position, but it was a far cry from what Pepple could’ve delivered.

Shamar Wright and Lamar Wright also answered the call of duty. Had the Wright Brothers not taken flight (sorry, had to do it), the Cougars could’ve been in a world of hurt. Shamar had the upper hand on his brother as a rookie but Lamar, in classic brotherly fashion, said ‘watch this’. He checked in as the Cougars’ most efficient offensive performer last year and finished second in the OVC in blocks per minute (he swatted seven shots against Belmont in the OVC Tournament!). The ‘brothers Wright’ may look indistinguishable to the naïve eye, but they’ve carved out their own stylistic niches. Lamar gravitates more toward the paint, where his length and defensive activity are on full display, while Shamar floats toward the perimeter. Shamar didn’t shoot it well last year but, unlike his brother, he’s a confident outside shooter with range.

For the second year in a row, Barone aligned his defense in zone a fair amount (20% of all defensive possessions, per Synergy), but it was less effective than in 2020. 

This relative gap between man and zone effectiveness begs the following question: would Barone be wise to unleash the improved athleticism in man-to-man and pressing schemes? On one hand, the zone can serve as a defense mechanism to hide lack of interior size, as was the case last year. On the other hand, it somewhat constricts SIUE’s team speed, which can wreak havoc when cut loose.

Courtney Carter and Ray'Sean Taylor are the swing dominoes in the backcourt. In a year turned upside down, Carter was the steady pulse of the Cougar backcourt. With an NJCAA D-II Player of the Year plaque on his wall, Barone is betting on big things from Carter in 2022. Taylor, a 6-1 All-State guard from Collinsville, could be a diamond in the rough after tearing his ACL the summer before his freshman year. If all breaks right, Taylor may solidify himself as the Cougars’ alpha dog by season’s end.

Rounding out the backcourt are two injury-scarred veterans, Cam Williams and Carlos Curtis, and utility guard Desmond Polk. Williams is still on the mend from tearing an ACL in February, while Curtis, who labored through injuries as well, is also still ramping up to full speed. Polk, who backfilled Williams and Curtis last year, saw his playing time explode in their stead. That invaluable, albeit painful, learning experience should pay dividends in year 2.

Shaun Doss’ positional classification is tricky, landing somewhere between combo guard and power wing, but the former Pine Bluff product is a gamer. Despite hailing from the SWAC’s watered down competitive landscape, Doss stood head and shoulders above his peers. The scary thing is that Doss was actually better in 2019 than he was last season, likely due to rust from an injury decimated 2020 campaign. Doss is hoping a superior supporting cast will give him a better shot at postseason glory after losing on repeat for three straight years.

Bottom Line: From an uneasy interim period to the COVID / injury avalanche, Barone’s been dodging bullets since the moment he manned the helm. Can we get this man some positive karma? Taylor could be a sleeping giant and the returning nucleus isn’t short on length or athleticism, either. A 4th or 5th place finish is well within grasp but cracking the top-3 would be a Mount Everest climb.

9. Eastern Illinois

Key Returners: Sammy Friday, Henry Abraham, Kashawn Charles, Barlow Alleruzzo IV
Key Losses: I mean, where to begin…
Key Newcomers: Myles Baker (Central Connecticut), Kejuan Clements (JUCO), Elijah Wood (Nebraska), Jermaine Hamlin (Illinois), CJ Lane (JUCO) 

Lineup: 

Outlook: Caveating 2021 season performance with the ‘C-Word’ (read: COVID) is no fun for anyone. I hate writing it as much as you hate reading it but ignoring the context is poor diligence. Somewhere, Eastern Illinois fans are nodding emphatically…

From COVID constricted schedules to perpetual ruinous injuries, the firing squad unloaded every possible bullet at the Panthers last year. From my naïve perch up in Chicago, it sure looks like Jay Spoonhour drew the short end of the stick. Spoon incrementally raised the standards at EIU, boosted by an enhanced talent base that was poised to make waves last season. Then came the tidal wave of injuries…

The EIU athletic department wooed longtime Illinoisan Marty Simmons away from Clemson, where he spent the last three years as an assistant, to Charleston, a 90-minute drive from his hometown of Lawrenceville. Simmons waxed poetic over Brownell and all that he learned from Brownell’s defensive acumen. He’ll bring those cliff notes with him to EIU, but Simmons’ innate expertise, and why he was hired at Clemson in the first place, lies on the offensive end.

Back in his Evansville hay day, we used to call Simmons ‘Marty Motion’.  The Aces’ sublime ball movement and precision screening would make Norman Dale swoon.

Tangent: Did we forget Simmons came *this* close to reaching the NCAA Tournament holy land back in 2016?

From the press conference, it sounds as if that patented motion offense is coming to EIU. However, Simmons told reporters he recently renovated his offense via supplementary incorporations of dribble drive, pick-n-roll, and situational set play actions. He’ll deploy a more diverse offensive playbook, relative to the Evansville era, but motion, in some fashion, will likely remain the bedrock of the offense.

From a personnel perspective, Simmons will certainly have to play catch up. This summer, he threw as many band aids on the ravaged offseason roster as possible, in hopes of keeping the Panthers moderately competitive in year 1.

A balanced, team-centric offense should make the game easier for incumbents Henry Abraham, Kashawn Charles and Micah Schnyders, along with transfer infusions Myles Baker, Kejuan Clements, Elijah Wood and CJ Lane. Simmons plans to roll 10+ deep, so all these names will see the floor this season. In what order or in what combination, well, not even Simmons has that ironed out.

Charles and Abraham are predominantly shooters, as is Lane, a JUCO product from sunny Florida. All three are capable of shooting in the high 30s, at least, from bonus land if everything breaks right. Charles is a career 39% marksman from long distance and needs just six triples to clear the century mark for his career. Lane and Abraham are still trying to live up to their reputations as ‘shooters’ but Simmons is confident they’ll pop as reliable floor spacers.

Shooting is great, but it’s worthless without shot creation and facilitation. The primary supplier for these shooters is yet to be determined, but Baker is best positioned to seize the opening (partly by default). The Central Connecticut cast away owns a dynamic combo guard arsenal. Still, the modest numbers Baker posted on a bad CCSU team is uninspiring – thus, it’s tough to be giddy about his prospects in this role.

Kejuan Clements, a well-rounded lead guard with proven production against top end JUCO competition, would be my choice to man the cockpit. He posted a 2.9 assist-to-turnover ratio at Triton College, which exudes confidence that he can meticulously cradle the rock – valuing the basketball is a long-time Simmons staple. The former Simeon product has a circus shot making ability, too, but Simmons will need to curb that enthusiasm and keep him within the confines of the offense. 

Up front, space eater Sammy Friday is back for a do-over, as is Barlow Alleruzzo. Friday’s the anchor here, a sturdy 6’9 master of the low post. Simmons planted another large tree, Jermaine Hamlin, next to Friday in the middle. Hamlin is finally out of Kofi Coburn’s shadow and will revel at the thought of practicing against someone else for a change.

Bottom Line: Simmons’ traditional offensive concepts may not be in vogue by today’s pace-and-space standards, but it sounds like he’s made renovations to the old template he used religiously at Evansville. Long term, that hybrid approach sounds promising. Short team, buckle up EIU faithful – 2022 should be a bumpy one.

10. Tennessee Martin

Key Returners: None
Key Losses: Everyone
Key Newcomers: KJ Simon (Troy), Darius Simmons (D-II), KK Curry (South Alabama), Bernie Andre (FIU), David Didenko (Georgia Tech), Josh Endicott (North Florida), Koby Jeffries (UAB), Mikel Henderson (JUCO), Chris Nix (JUCO) 

Lineup:

Outlook: There’s no way to dance around the incomprehensible circumstances UT Martin faced last year. A control-alt-delete + reboot, is exactly what this program needed.

At the ripe old age of 36, Ryan Ridder brings a youthful exuberance, and savvy X&O instincts, to the helm. Ridder did yeoman’s work at Bethune Cookman, where he engineered a remarkable turnaround in the blink of an eye. In his first season, Ridder, just 33 years old at the time, turned a bottom-feeding 10-win team from the year prior into the MEAC regular season champions. His brilliant work with the clipboard earned him the 2018 Joe B. Hall Award, given to the nation’s top first-year Division I head coach. 

Over the last two years, Ridder’s Wildcats amassed a 19-13 record in league play, proving that incredible first season was not a one-hit wonder. Unfortunately, all momentum was halted when BCU opted to sit out the 2021 season due to COVID concerns, leaving Ridder without a job. After taking the time off as a refresher, he’s now eager to lay the moorings for his second turnaround project. 

The ‘pace-and-space’ craze is ubiquitous across college basketball. Most coaches will fail at implementing this utopian vision, particularly at mid and low major programs, where finding the personnel to execute is near-impossible. Ridder, however, appears to be an exception to the rule. 

He’ll shortly unveil his rampant run-and-gun style to the OVC with the only roster in America without a single returning player. With Eastern Kentucky bolting for greener pastures, the timing of Ridder’s arrival is fitting – the Skyhawks will now be the token speed demons in the OVC. 

Guard play is the skeleton key to any up-and-down system and Ridder brought in a few good ones. Ridder’s familiarity with Troy transfer KJ Simon, who also sat idle last year, gives Simon the inside track to a starting job. The crafty lefty is a dynamic, dual-threat lead guard. UAB transfer Koby Jeffries charts a similar course as Simon. He struggled to stand out in Birmingham, but that was a tall order last year on a fringe top-100 squad. Jeffries profiles as a point guard, and could take on co-initiator duties next to Simon.

Ridder is high on D-II import Darius Simmons, a proven scorer at the Division-II level, but I’m placing my bet on JUCO product Mikel Henderson to be the breakout star. Henderson comes from a frenetically paced system at Crowley College, where he was part of the highest scoring NJCAA Tournament game in history: 

He’s got a lightning quick release from the perimeter, and Ridder will grant him the greenest of lights to launch it whenever, from wherever.

Perimeter shooting will be a prerequisite for all rotation members, not just the guards. Ridder told Blue Ribbon that he targets bigs with inside-out skillsets, able to stretch the floor and roam away from the metaphorical electric fence around the paint. Georgia State transfer David Didenko, who garnered major interest from numerous power conference suitors coming out of high school, is the model prototype. He might emerge as the most productive weapon on this roster. Josh Endicott, a quintessential glue guy, is a lock to crack the rotation, too. 

The question remains, though: can this team get stops? Two newcomers, KK Curry and Bernie Andre, project as instant improvements over last year’s defensively challenged roster. Andre’s been a pet favorite of mine for multiple years now. Perhaps Martin will be the landing spot where he finally puts it all together. Andre’s length and mobility headline his physical toolkit, while Curry’s explosiveness sets him apart. He’s bound to put someone in the OVC on a poster this year.

It’s tough to pinpoint who will emerge as the go-to-guys, particularly in the backcourt, but if there’s one thing for certain, these Skyhawks will play hard. This was an endearing, albeit cliché, trait of Ridder’s teams at Bethune. As USF assistant Jon Safir would say, Ridder’s teams LOVE to compete:

Bottom Line: Long term, Ridder sounds like a no-brainer hire. He’s a relentless recruiter, sharpened by his time on the JUCO circuit, where head coaches do everything short of driving the bus. For year 1, he’s assembled a respectable frontcourt, with a few established pieces capable of stepping in right away. The backcourt is a major wildcard, though, simply due to nascent D-I experience. It’s possible Simon, Jeffries and Henderson were prematurely written off by other programs, and, if so, Ridder will be the beneficiary of that oversight… and I will have been too low on my UT Martin projection…