-Jim Root

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: Terry Taylor, Sr., Austin Peay
Coach of the Year: Matt McMahon, Murray State
Newcomer of the Year: Darian Adams, R Sr., Jacksonville State
Freshman of the Year: Wendell Green, Eastern Kentucky

Tier 1

1. Murray State

Key Returners: Tevin Brown, DaQuan Smith, KJ Williams, Demond Robinson, Chico Carter, Devin Gilmore
Key Losses: Jaiveon Eaves, Anthony Smith, Darnell Cowart
Key Newcomers: Justice Hill (JUCO), Dionte Bostick, Ja’Queze Kirby, Jackson Sivills, Nicholas McMullen

Lineup:

Outlook: In another third edition of the epic Belmont vs. Murray State struggle to rule the OVC, the Racers were narrowly bested in a thrilling tournament final, falling 76-75 in the third straight meeting between the two teams with an NCAA automatic berth on the line. Austin Peay may have something to say about that run of dominance, but the Racers look loaded and ready to contend for a league title before making another postseason run.

Matt McMahon has been dominant the past three seasons, impressively surviving the loss of Ja Morant to capture a share of a third straight regular season title. Without an all-world initiator like Morant, the Racers did it with defense: they were the best in the league on that end, dominating the paint on both ends with a deep stable of athletic big men while also extending on the perimeter to force opponents to make plays off the bounce.

It all starts inside, where the two-headed center rotation of Demond Robinson and KJ Williams often overwhelms smaller opponents. Robinson started the final 23 games and is more of a true rim protector (11.0% block rate), but Williams is the more dominant rebounder and actually landed on the All-OVC first team despite coming off the bench. The combination of the two helped Murray State lead the league in 2P% defense and rank 2nd in defensive rebound rate (and 47th nationally). Without any easy buckets in the paint and few second chances, foes found it exceedingly difficult to score.

Those two allow the Racers’ guards to have more freedom in McMahon’s man-to-man scheme, getting up into ball-handlers and denying passing lanes. Murray State led the OVC in defensive assist rate, short-circuiting opponents’ ball movement and daring them to challenge Robinson or Williams at the rim off the bounce. Rising sophomores DaQuan Smith and Chico Carter have the quickness and strength to pressure the ball, and although McMahon’s scheme de-emphasizes turnovers, the pressure can lead to mistakes by the offense.

Murray State is far from being all defense, however. The Racers have a genuine offensive star in wing Tevin Brown, who ascended into the alpha role abandoned by Morant to become a Player of the Year-caliber threat (well, in a league where Terry Taylor doesn’t exist). He blossomed from mostly a catch-and-shoot threat into a multi-level scorer and solid secondary creator, maintaining impressive efficiency despite an increase in usage and minutes played.

He has a terrific tag team partner in Williams, who himself became a monolithic force on the block, overpowering foes before and after the catch en route to shooting 58% from the field. Murray State’s deadliest action involved Brown setting a diagonal screen for Williams in the paint, forcing opponents to pick their poison, unable to help on both:

Both players are only juniors, so the headaches for OVC opponents are just getting started. Robinson is an interior threat himself, and the errors that plagued his game as a freshman – turnovers, missed bunnies – should decrease with experience.

Smith and Carter offer a “dual point guard” look in the backcourt, as both players can handle the rock and get into the paint. Like Robinson, they struggled through some first-year hiccups, but they can both hit open threes if presented, and the ball security concerns typically tighten up for sophomore guards. If they do still struggle, touted JUCO transfer Justice Hill is perfectly proficient enough to step in as a starter. He ran the offense for one of the best JUCO teams in the country last year, and he’s a tremendous athlete, as well. Freshman Dionte Bostick and Brion Whitley round out the backcourt rotation; Whitley missed all of last year with injury.

The linking piece between the outstanding backcourt and the intimidating centers will be Devin Gilmore, a versatile forward who warrants consideration for my colleague Matt’s “Know Your Role” All-Star team. Gilmore shot 72% from the field, gobbled rebounds on both ends of the court at elite rates, and made an impact on the defensive end of the court. He wasn’t a prominent box score producer, but his value is crystal clear in Hoop Lens’ on/off numbers:

With Gilmore entering the starting lineup, filling the minutes behind him falls to redshirt freshman Matt Smith or true freshman Ja’Queze Kirby. Both youngsters have promise, although Smith’s season in the program may give him an edge over Kirby’s limitless bounce.

Bottom Line: Murray State has everything you want from a mid-major power: a certified star who can score in bunches, an athletic big man with high-major size who can own the paint, emerging young players who should only get better, and a coach who has had plenty of success in the past. Austin Peay and Belmont return a couple all-conference players of their own, but the Racers are proven on both ends of the court, and they’re fully capable of picking off some higher-ranked teams, both in the non-conference and in the postseason.

2. Austin Peay

Key Returners: Terry Taylor, Jordyn Adams, Carlos Paez, Reginald Gee (injury), Alec Woodard
Key Losses: Eli Abaev (grad transfer), Evan Hinson, Sita Conteh
Key Newcomers: Mike Peake (Georgia), Corbin Merritt (Oklahoma), Devon McCain (redshirt), Elton Walker (JUCO), Tai’Reon Joseph, Merdy Mongozi (JUCO), Ibrahima Jarjou

Lineup:

Outlook: Let’s start here: no, I don’t think Austin Peay will be a Top 50 team next season. I love our guy Jeff, but that’s too ambitious an expectation considering the Governors ranked 172nd in KenPom last season and have never finished higher than 103rd in the site’s 25-year history. I do think APSU can finish in the top 100 for the first time ever, though, and the powerhouse trio of Coach Matt Figger, returning OVC Player of the Year Terry Taylor, and mega-talented guard Jordyn Adams certainly gives the Govs an impressive arsenal with which to terrorize opponents.

For a guy sprouting off the Frank Martin coaching tree, Figger’s teams have been surprisingly offense-heavy through his first three seasons; the Govs have an average AdjOE rank of 105.7 over that span, compared to just 237.3 in AdjDE. Martin’s identity has long been as a stern disciplinarian whose teams play with a relentless physicality on the defensive end, often via a matchup zone that gives foes fits. Figger brought that zone with him to Clarksville, but the Govs simply have not been able to make foes’ lives difficult in the paint.

Newcomers Mike Peake and Corbin Merritt give Figger actual high-major size, possibly raising the defensive ceiling. Merritt was a big-time shot-blocker in junior college back in 2018-19, and he could give Austin Peay’s interior defense the eraser it has sorely lacked in the past. Peake is more of an active power forward without the same rim protection instincts, but his experience in the SEC and tremendous AAU output before college portend a possible breakout with the step down in competition. JUCO big man Merdy Mongozi is another shot-swatting menace, amassing 75 blocks while playing just 286 minutes last year, though his fouling may be a roadblock against extended playing time.  

Enough about the defense, though, because this Austin Peay team will be known for its ability to torch the nets. Taylor is the headliner, a multi-positional destroyer who has proven nearly impossible for conference opponents to handle:

He’s particularly dominant while driving through or around defenders who cannot match his strength/agility combination, eviscerating opponents in the post en route to ranking in the 99th percentile nationally on such possessions. He had a slight shooting slump from deep and the free throw line last year, but he still cleverly uses a shot fake from deep, and the athletic lefty should bounce back towards his career percentages this year. He’s a terrific bet to take home a second straight OVC POY trophy.  

Having a backcourt duo like Adams and Carlos Paez helps to weaponize Taylor, adding a scoring-minded wing and a savvy passing point guard to the lineup. Taylor is the unquestioned alpha, but Adams may actually be the next NBA Draft pick out of the OVC, a burly guard who has the impressive ability to shoot off movement:

He’s also plenty skilled enough to pump fake that shot and attack the rim. That’s a key in Figger’s motion offense, as the action with Adams running off screens draws defensive attention away from Taylor. Paez hit something of a freshman wall last season, scoring just six points in his final five games and getting benched, but he’s a talented playmaker and smooth shooter who fits perfectly next to the team’s 1A and 1B options.

Alongside sniper Alec Woodard, Austin Peay also gets Reginald Gee and Devon McCain back from injury, boosting the depth in the backcourt. Gee is a scoring guard who averaged 10.8 PPG through the first five contests last year before his season abruptly ended, while McCain oozes upside following a highly productive tenure  as Adams’ high school teammate. Like Adams, McCain had also committed to Baylor at one point. Top 100 JUCO Elton Walker provides more size on the wing, and true freshman Tai’Reon Joseph could be another recruiting steal after being overshadowed by LSU’s Ja’Vonte Smart and then Virginia’s Reece Beekman during a massively successful high school career. Good gracious, that’s an embarrassment of riches!

Bottom Line: With Figger at the helm and Taylor and Adams leading the offense, Austin Peay’s floor is an extremely entertaining and potent squad that can put up points with nearly anyone. If Peake, Merritt, and Mongozi can stabilize the interior defense and embolden APSU’s already-aggressive perimeter defense, then the Governors are capable of breaking the Belmont/Murray State stranglehold atop the league (those two have squared off in three straight OVC Tournament finals). Competing for an at-large bid may be a tough ask in a COVID-shortened season, but this Govs team could win the school’s first NCAA Tournament game since 1987.

3. Belmont

Key Returners: Grayson Murphy, Nick Muszynski, Tate Pierson, Caleb Hollander, Ben Sheppard, Mitch Listau
Key Losses: Tyler Scanlon, Adam Kunkel (transfer), Michael Benkert, Seth Adelsperger
Key Newcomers: Even Brauns, JaCobi Wood, Frank Jakubicek, Luke Smith (D-III)

Lineup:

Outlook: Following a storied career that appropriately ended with his first ever NCAA Tournament win, Rick Byrd bequeathed his captaincy of the Belmont luxury liner to his protégé, Casey Alexander. Alexander maintained a steady course, accumulating 26 victories in his maiden Belmont voyage and winning one of the few conference tournaments that was actually able to finish before the COVID iceberg sunk the season. With two junior stars returning to power the ship, expect Belmont to continue its tremendous success, but the winds of choppy waters could prevent a third straight NCAA bid.

The primary concern is the loss of the team’s three best shooters, two of whom surprisingly opted to transfer. Guards like Ben Sheppard and Mitch Listau will need to see an increase in efficiency while taking over more playing time, although D-III transfer Luke Smith could be the secret to keeping defenses stretched thin after he buried 89 triples at 43.4% at his last stop. Freshman JaCobi Wood is the point guard of the future, but until then, the prolific scorer may see some time on the wing thanks to his quickness and perimeter touch. Meanwhile, bigger forwards Tate Pierson and Caleb Hollander have the shooting stroke to spread the floor, and they may end up battling for the starting job at the 4.

Although the auxiliary options may be unsettled, the two offensive engines are back, with point guard Grayson Murphy being the consummate floor general and Nick Muszynski serving as a devastating finisher in the paint. It’s hard to call one more important than the other; they both serve vital purposes to the way Alexander wants to attack defenses. They both dominate the defensive glass, ranking 10th and 3rd in the OVC in defensive rebound rate, respectively, and Murphy’s ability to grab and go off the glass fuels the Bruins’ blistering transition attack:

The entire team is tremendously well-schooled at running transition lanes, and Murphy’s head snaps forward the instant he gets the ball in the backcourt, scouring the hardwood ahead to find easy buckets against sloppy, recovering defenses.

Muszynski often benefits from this vision, and he dutifully chugs straight to the front of the rim with the hopes of getting an easy lay-up or dunk. He also has deft footwork and silky touch on the block, and he “wins the battle early” – which is to say, he is tremendous at sealing off an angle to the basket so he can simply catch and score. Touted freshman Even Brauns looks like his successor, and it will be interesting to see how often Alexander tries to play the two big men together (if at all). Brauns might be skilled enough to stretch to the perimeter at times, but Belmont’s success is so predicated on spacing that it may be untenable.

Of course, the Bruins run tremendous – and constant – motion around Muszynski in the post, occupying potential help defenders and allowing “Moose” to work against single coverage. There’s a reason Byrd’s offenses constantly finished in the top 3 nationally in 2P%, and Alexander’s unit didn’t drop far – last year’s Bruins finished 5th. Alexander surprisingly cut down heavily on pick-and-rolls, despite Murphy being masterful in such action. Running motion around Moose was simply too effective to make PnR the primary offensive action:

On the other end, the Bruins’ half court defense preyed on poor shot selection, enticing opponents into taking a huge share of mid-range jumpers and profiting as a result. Per Dribble Handoff, Belmont’s defense ranked 37th nationally in Shot Quality, an indication of how well the Bruins forced foes into difficult, low-efficiency attempts. The ceiling is capped slightly by a lack of impactful athletes, but Murphy has some of the best hands in the country (7th nationally in steal rate), and the Bruins force enough turnovers to help fuel their transition attack.

Bottom Line: With Murphy and Muszynski back for their third years as starters, the Bruins are absolutely a threat to win the conference. The questions are around the supporting cast: who takes the Dylan Windler/Adam Kunkel role as the go-to wing scorer? Who takes over the stretch four spot? The roster has players capable of filling those spots, but until the answers become clearer, I’m slotting Belmont ever so slightly behind the two other potential powerhouses in what should be a resurgent OVC.

Tier 2

4. Jacksonville St.

Key Returners: Kayne Henry, Martin Roub
Key Losses: Jacara Cross, Ty Hudson, De’Torrion Ware (transfer), Derek St. Hilaire (grad transfer), Derrick Cook (transfer), Elias Harden (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Darian Adams (Troy), Demaree King (JUCO), Brandon Huffman (UNC), Amanze Nguzemi (Georgia), Jalen Finch (JUCO), Jay Pal (JUCO), Semaj Henderson, Marcellus Brigham

Lineup:

Outlook: Upon Coach Ray Harper’s arrival in Jacksonville in 2016, the Gamecocks ascended to another level. After finishing in KenPom’s top 200 just once since 1997, Harper quickly rattled off the three best seasons in that period, finishing 157th, 142nd, and 115th in his first three campaigns. He reeled in talent via the transfer portal and the junior college ranks, often out-athleting foes with the likes of Jamall Gregory and Christian Cunningham.

Last year seemed no different, with players from Clemson and Xavier joining a smattering of JUCO imports to give Harper another solid roster on paper. Everything fell apart, though, and the Gamecocks went 13-19 overall while plummeting to 285th in Pom’s rankings. The roster turned over almost entirely this offseason, and hitting the reset button may end up being a positive thing following such a disappointing year.

The Gamecocks’ key identity under Harper has been its interior defense, and the collapse of that aspect played a big role in Jacksonville State’s 2020 decline:

Kayne Henry is back as a stout power forward, but ground-bound centers Martin Roub and Maros Zeliznak aren’t ferocious presences on the defensive end. Fortunately, Harper was all over this area in the offseason, most notably nabbing UNC transfer Brandon Huffman to reinforce the interior. Huffman played extremely limited minutes for the Tar Heels, but he has the size and athletic ability to dominate in the OVC. Fellow power conference newcomer Amanze Ngumezi adds another jolt of athleticism after starting the first six games for Tom Crean’s Georgia Bulldogs last year.

Attacking the rim is a key tenet of the offense, as well, so expect Henry and Huffman to be featured on that end. Huffman is going to be a load on the block, and Henry showed some innate post skill in a smallish sample last year. Those two, along with Ngumezi, will also be factors on the offensive glass, an area in which Harper’s teams always excel. Roub and JUCO transfer Jay Pal offer some floor spacing for when Harper wants to spread the court a little more, allowing more room for Huffman, Henry, and the team’s guards to operate.

That’s where Darian Adams comes in, a powerful 6’3 grad transfer who can score inside and out. He has struggled for some undermanned Troy teams in the past, but playing alongside two other ball-handlers in JUCO transfers Jalen Finch and Demaree King should open up Adams’ game and allow him to focus more on scoring. Finch and King both averaged north of 4.5 assists per game last year, proving their playmaking chops, and King is also a lights-out shooter – he hit 120 triples at 46% and has a smooth lefty stroke. The depth isn’t great, so freshman Semaj Henderson will be pressed into duty, and he’s a willing shooter and physical driver. Harper may also opt for some bigger lineups with Henry, Pal, or Juwan Perdue at the 3.

Bottom Line: Harper recognized the Gamecocks’ issues last year and appropriately retooled the roster. Given the talented new pieces and Harper’s track record of success at JSU, I’m inclined to expect a season more akin to his first three years rather than a repeat of 2020. Huffman and Adams are crucial, and the backcourt depth is heavily dependent on Henderson and the JUCO additions, but the talent is there. There’s some risk here, particularly for a team that has to fit together a bunch of new pieces, but I’m betting on a bounce back year from Harper and a strong roster.

5. Eastern Kentucky

Key Returners: Jomaru Brown, Tre King, Michael Moreno, Russhard Cruickshank, JacQuess Hobbs, Peyton Broughton (injury)
Key Losses: Ty Taylor, Lachlan Anderson
Key Newcomers: Wendell Green Jr., Brandon Knapper (West Virginia), Cooper Robb (Charlotte), Cheick Faye (JUCO), Devontae Blanton

Lineup:

Outlook: After a triumphant 12-6 finish in the league, second-year boss A.W. Hamilton earned the OVC’s Coach of the Year award, seemingly ramping up momentum in Richmond with most of the rotation returning. Allow me to throw some cold water on that prognosis, however: EKU finished 280th in KenPom last year, 65 spots below Hamilton’s debut season, and it benefited greatly from a major down year across the league (29th in conference rankings, the first finish below 25th since 2008). We still don’t fully know whether Hamilton can build EKU into an Ohio Valley contender, although this year does have plenty of promise.

The one directive Hamilton has made crystal clear during his first two years: put a cinder block on the gas pedal and don’t even think about moving it. EKU has ranked 2nd and 6th in adjusted tempo in 2019 and 2020, respectively, and there’s no reason to believe that will change. The Colonels return their entire backcourt sans Ty Taylor, including the ball-dominant Jomaru Brown, while also adding several new pieces, meaning Hamilton has the guard depth to conduct the track meet he desires.

Brown is the star sprinter of said track meet, a speedy creator who ranked 3rd in the entire country in usage. His own disastrous inefficiency doomed the offense, though, as bricky shooting and constant turnovers led to an eyesore of an offensive rating of 84.7 (100 is average). The offense actually saw a boost when its leading scorer hit the bench:

He and EKU should benefit from an influx of more ball-handling, allowing him to focus more on scoring.

Brandon Knapper and touted recruit Wendell Green Jr. are both plenty capable point guards, and veterans JacQuess Hobbs and Russhard Cruickshank are both still around, as well. Along with Brown, that’s a veritable stable of backcourt thoroughbreds, meaning the Colonels will once again live in transition. Knapper never found his footing under Bob Huggins, but coming to an up-tempo system with lowered competition should do wonders for the former 3-star recruit - plus, Knapper played for Hamilton at Hargrave Military Academy. Green Jr. was the floor general for powerhouse La Lumiere, often getting overshadowed by the three top 100 recruits on the roster. He oozes confidence and skill, and he could end up seizing the lead guard spot right away, despite several talented competitors for the job.

Hobbs, meanwhile, is more of a defensive whiz, keying Hamilton’s pressure attack while ranking 5th nationally in steal rate. The Colonels have ranked in the top seven nationally in full court press rate for two consecutive seasons, and Hobbs is the most devastating defensive weapon on the roster. He’ll likely serve as a change-of-pace off the bench to frustrate opposing guards. Cruickshank is primarily a shooter, though his minutes will also be in jeopardy following the additions of Cooper Robb and Peyton Broughton (returning from injury). Robb hit 44% of his triples for Charlotte last season, and while the stylistic change from Ron Sanchez’s Virginia-esque crawl to Hamilton’s turbo tempo may give him whiplash, his quick hands (13th nationally in steal rate) should fit right in.

When forced to play in the half court, Hamilton wants to spread the court to open up driving lanes and post up opportunities. Michael Moreno is the ideal stretch four in such a scheme, capable of competing on the glass while also hitting 35% from beyond the arc. Big man Tre King proved to be a solid interior threat as a finisher and on the block, and his continued development should help boost the Colonels’ sometimes-anemic half court attack.

The pressure is the story defensively, as EKU is often crushed in the paint and especially on the glass. The guards are almost always leaking out into transition before the defensive rebound is secured, and opponents consistently feast on second chance opportunities, despite the best efforts of Moreno and King. Hamilton has very little interior depth, so expect some four-guard lineups, although sophomore Tariq Balogun and newcomers Cheikh Faye and Devontae Blanton will have opportunities to earn minutes, as well.

Bottom Line: EKU’s breakneck pace makes for some wild games, although no team – EKU nor its opponents – hit 100 points in a D-I versus D-I game last year, a slight surprise. That could change this year considering the influx of guard talent, and Hamilton will certainly hope to build off the 2020 Coach of the Year campaign. The Colonels are susceptible to blowouts early in the year against teams who take care of the ball, but expect Brown & Co. to once again be an upper half squad once OVC play rolls around.  

6. Eastern Illinois

Key Returners: Josiah Wallace, Mack Smith, Deang Deang (injury), George Dixon, Marvin Johson, Kashawn Charles, Jordan Skipper-Brown
Key Losses: Rade Kukobat (transfer), Shareef Smith, JaQualis Matlock
Key Newcomers: Sammy Friday IV (Siena), Junior Farquhar (JUCO), Ryan Leonard (JUCO), Barlow Alleruzzo IV (JUCO), Henry Abraham

Lineup:

Outlook: Forgive me – I cannot speak of this Eastern Illinois squad without getting some catharsis for the atrocity that was betting Murray State -4.5 at EIU on February 20th. My Racers led 54-31 with 7:30 left, seemingly locked into an easy cover as a road favorite. The fat lady refused to sing, though, and the host Panthers ripped off a 23-4 run over a six-minute span, eventually pulling out a 63-60 victory that left me (and Murray State’s entire team) shell-shocked. EIU had a 0.2% chance to win, per KenPom’s win probability graph:

I’d imagine the odds to cover weren’t much higher - perhaps around 1%? But you can’t get over a loss until you confront it, or so says my therapist. Phew, I feel better now.

Coach Jay Spoonhour brings back the bulk of that squad, with his rotation likely to feature five senior starters and three more seniors first off the bench. You won’t find a more veteran bunch than these Panthers, and Spoonhour will hope to parlay that experience into his first top 200 KenPom finish in Charleston; through eight years, he has peaked at 220th.

You know what you’re getting with EIU offensively: a heavy dose of motion, complete with copious off-ball screening action and cutting, contrasted with very few ball screens. Per KenPom’s AdjOE, EIU’s offense has been within the range of 98.2 and 100.5 in all eight of Spoonhour’s seasons, an impressive level of consistency that also displays the limited ceiling. If the Panthers are going to break through that top-end limit, it will be via the potent backcourt of Josiah Wallace, Mack Smith, Kashawn Charles, and Deang Deang, all of whom have now been in the system for multiple years.

Wallace is the focal point, a big guard who lives in the midrange, using a high release to shoot over smaller guards. Smith and Charles earn their keep from beyond the three-point arc, offering some spacing to let Wallace, Deang, and Marvin Johnson work. Deang is a slasher and a defensive ace who missed the final 22 games with injury with an Achilles injury; he may not be ready for the start of the season, even with it being delayed.

Johnson, meanwhile, was a shot-happy reserve whose inefficiency torpedoed the best efforts of the rest of the roster. He led the team in usage, but his effective field goal percentage of 40.3% is a major eyesore, and committing 3.0 turnovers per game in just 22.1 minutes is inexcusably sloppy. He either needs to clean his game up or defer to his teammates more frequently, or he’ll fall out of the rotation (as he did late in the year). JUCO transfer Junior Farquhar will be hungry for minutes after being a productive piece at South Plains and beginning his career at Louisiana Tech, and Johnson is the logical choice to lose time.

The other key offensive weapon is versatile wing George Dixon, a physical ‘tweener who creates mismatches with his strength and speed. He lived at the free throw line, but his inability to convert from the stripe (just 57%) dragged down his otherwise-sterling offensive output. Lacking a true center, Spoonhour played a ton of small lineups last year that featured Dixon or similarly-built Jordan Skipper-Brown as the nominal five man, but Siena grad transfer Sammy Friday IV should solidify the Panthers’ interior play on both ends of the floor.

Deang’s return from injury is crucial for the defense, as the athletic wing keys Spoonhour’s pressure scheme with his length and intensity. A roster of switchable pieces helped the Panthers avoid a major drop-off without him, and they did a terrific job of taking away the three-point line last year (38th in defensive 3PA rate). EIU’s 2P% defense was already stout, and adding Friday IV’s length inside should only reinforce that aspect.  

Bottom Line: Bringing back such a veteran roster allows for one of two primary conclusions. The first is that in a COVID-impacted offseason, so much continuity will greatly benefit the Panthers, particularly early in the season. On the other hand, an older roster often lacks clear routes to internal improvement, so we may already know exactly what this EIU team is. Deang’s health and Friday IV’s impact are the unknown variables, and Spoonhour’s efforts to challenge the OVC’s top-tier triumvirate may hinge on how those two players pan out.

7. Morehead State

Key Returners: Ta’lon Cooper, Tyzhaun Claude, James Baker, De’Von Cooper (injury), LJ Bryan
Key Losses: Djimon Henson, Jordan Walker, Malik Riddle (transfer)
Key Newcomers: KJ Hunt, Jr. (McNeese St.), Skyelar Potter (Wright St.), Jaylen Sebree (FAU), Marcus Garrett (JUCO), Drew Thelwell, Johni Broome

Lineup:

Outlook: When Preston Spradlin took over mid-season for the dismissed Sean Woods in 2017 and went 10-6 in the OVC – doing so as the youngest coach in the country – he looked like a rising star in the field. The bloom has come off the rose somewhat, though, as he has been unable to replicate that success through three seasons (34-60 overall, 19-35 in the league since). He’s still exceptionally young, but he needs to find a way to elevate Morehead State out of the OVC muck before he gets a shot somewhere farther up the NCAA coaching ladder.

As our pal Mark Titus says, basketball is often a make-or-miss league, and Morehead State firmly entrenched itself on the “miss” side of that spectrum last year. The Eagles ranked 348th nationally in 3P%, shooting an abysmal 27.3%, and they weren’t much better from the stripe, ranking 336th while hitting just 63.8% of their free throws. Opponents felt entirely too comfortable collapsing in the paint and going under screens, thoroughly unconcerned with surrendering open shots to a team that proved time and again that they weren’t going to take advantage of such benefits.

Spradlin’s system is motion-heavy, with a bevy of off-ball actions involving four perimeter players surrounding a lone big man who will intermittently sneak out of the paint to set a ball screen. Both of the Eagles’ primary ball-handlers departed this offseason, which means McNeese State transfer KJ Hunt, Jr., JUCO transfer Marcus Garrett, and tantalizing sophomore Ta’lon Cooper should become the leaders of the offense. Hunt was in over his head back in 2018-19, but a year of practicing with the Eagles should hopefully make him a competent option; if nothing else, he made 35% of his threes. Garrett (not that Marcus Garrett) looks like a solid but unremarkable option after leading a middling junior college team last year. The team’s upside lies with Cooper, who looked like a future OVC star as a freshman, scoring efficiently both inside and out while ranking 8th in the league in assist rate.

Cooper will likely start alongside one of Hunt or Garrett, but the rest of the perimeter rotation is unsettled. De’Von Cooper (unrelated to Ta’lon) missed nearly all of 2019-20 and took a medical redshirt, but he was a valuable complementary wing two years ago who started every game. His shooting will be a boost around the team’s primary action. Two transfers should slot smoothly into the system, as well, with Jaylen Sebree eligible immediately and Skyelar Potter likely sitting until the end of the first semester. Sebree is the perfect stretch four in Spradlin’s system, a capable shooter who has the size and activity level to compete on the glass. He could swipe the starting spot from inefficient incumbent James Baker. Potter may be the perfect microwave bucket-getter off the bench; he was beat out for a starting role at Wright State, but he has the swagger and strength to make a major impact at Morehead.

As mentioned, the offense centers around a big man, and super soph Tyzhaun Claude is another burgeoning asset. He’s a weapon on the glass and in the post, and he came late last season, averaging 12.5 PPG in the final 13 contests after tallying just 7.2 PPG in the first 17. He complements (Ta’lon) Cooper well, and that second-year duo brightens the Eagles’ long-term outlook after posting terrific on/off numbers together last year:

Claude’s backup, LJ Bryan, also returns, but he should be little more than a 12 MPG reserve now that Claude has asserted himself.

On the defensive end, Spradlin is a man-to-man proponent, but opponents gashed the Eagles in the pick-and-roll. Playing a young center didn’t help, and Claude’s added experience should help cut down on some of his positional mistakes. Some of the blame goes to the guards, though, as it often looked like Morehead’s bigs were set up for ice coverage, but the player guarding the ball failed to force the ball-handler away from the screen, leaving a wide-open driving lane to the basket:

The on-ball defender, Justin Thomas (12), does not recognize the screen fast enough to force his man back into the space Bryan (22) jumps to, ultimately letting EKU’s Ty Taylor turn the corner for a strong-hand driving lay-up. In general, Spradlin’s teams have been consistently poor on the defensive end (no better than 258th nationally in AdjDE), and he will need to patch up some of the leaks to finally have a breakthrough season.

Bottom Line: Morehead State has stalled under Spradlin, underwhelming on both ends of the court en route to some disappointing finishes in the OVC – even last year, when the conference was awful as a whole outside of the top three squads. This year’s team has some intriguing additions that could bump the Eagles up a notch, but the rest of league should also bounce back, leaving Morehead State somewhere in the bottom half once again.

8. Tennessee St.

Key Returners: Mark Freeman, Carlos Marshall Jr., Shakem Johnson, Monty Johal (injury), Jon Brown
Key Losses: Michael Littlejohn, Wesley Harris, Jy’lan Washington, Emmanuel Egbuta, Ben Kone
Key Newcomers: Shakwon Barrett (JUCO), Amorey Womack (redshirt), Yusuf Mohamed (JUCO), Marcus Fitzgerald Jr., Josh Linder (Georgia St.)

Lineup:

Outlook: Penny Collins did his job in year two, doubling Tennessee State’s win total (from nine to 18) after a rocky first campaign. Collins has proven quite capable on the recruiting trail, nabbing talented transfers from both the D-I and junior college ranks, but translating those victories into an OVC contender is still a work in progress. The Tigers did manage a 9-9 conference finish, but it was a down year for the league, and a shaky offensive attack ended up dragging down what could have been an even better year.

The offensive struggles were largely in contrast with the Tigers’ stellar shot selection: they were one of only three OVC teams (along with powerhouses Belmont and Murray State) to rank in the top 100 in Dribble Handoff’s Shot Quality. And TSU made those shots! The Tigers ranked 49th nationally in 3P% and 50th in 2P%, leading to a rank of 34th in effective field goal percentage. Sure, they struggled from the stripe, (65.3% - 323rd), but that kind of output from the field would ordinarily indicate a potent attack.

The problem? TSU was arguably the sloppiest ball-handling team in the country, most notably ranking dead last nationally in non-steal turnover percentage, which is essentially a measure of unforced errors (travels, errant passes out of bounds, shot clock violations, etc.):

That’s definitely not a category where you want to emphatically lead the country.

Point guard Mark Freeman should be much sharper with the ball as a sophomore, and a collective increase in familiarity with each other should be a sizable boost after ranking 343rd in minutes continuity last season. Turnovers have been a glaring problem for four straight years, though – two under Collins, two under prior coach Dana Ford – so it’s probably unwise to expect sweeping improvement there.

Thus, the questions on offense are more about whether the Tigers can continue to bury shots at such a high rate. Shakem Johnson is a force in the paint, and he should remain a weapon as a finisher and post scorer, but the TSU will feel the losses of down-transfers Wesley Harris and Jy’lan Washington pointedly. Carlos Marshall and JUCO transfer Shakwon Barrett (who started his career at Tulane) may be able to replicate some of that production, and both bring outstanding size to the wing. Monty Johal and Amorey Womack, two guards who sat out last season, could provide some scoring pop, but both may experience some growing pains while trying to earn minutes for the first time at the Division I level.

Harris and Washington’s losses will hurt on defense, as well – 6’9 versatile athletes don’t grow on trees in the OVC. Johnson is a formidable presence inside, and the perimeter size with Barrett, Marshall, and bench player Ravel Moody offers some resistance around the arc as well. Collins will sprinkle in some zone to go with his primarily man-to-man approach, and that seemed to help keep opponents off balance last year, although the Tigers were often vulnerable to pick-and-rolls thanks to shaky rotations.

Bottom Line: Collins looks like a promising coaching mind (guys who played for Rick Byrd often do), and his penchant for landing talented transfers bodes well for the program’s long-term outlook. Without Harris and Washington, this year’s team may not have the same kind of athletic upside, but if Freeman & Co. can take better care of the ball, the Tigers should maintain solid positioning in the middle of the OVC pack.

Tier 3

9. UT Martin

Key Returners: Parker Stewart, Eman Sertovic, Hannes Polla
Key Losses: Quintin Dove, Derek Hawthorne, Ja’Darius Harris (transfer), Miles Thomas (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Ajani Kennedy (UC Riverside), Cam Holden (JUCO), Eden Holt (JUCO), Jaron Williams (JUCO), Vinnie Viana (JUCO), Jonte Coleman (JUCO), La’Quiem Walker (JUCO), Jeremiah Harris (JUCO), Kenton Eskridge (JUCO), K’suan Casey, Anthony Thomas

Lineup:

Outlook: Ladies and gentlemen, please call the fire department to put out the gasoline disaster that was UT Martin last year. We can start our discussion of the Skyhawks in only one place: the absolute embarrassment of a “defense” that this team “played.” Here are a few fun factoids:

• The Skyhawks ranked 353rd in AdjDE, surrendering the worst eFG% in the country and the 6th-worst defensive rebound rate

• Foes shot 59.1% from inside the arc (352nd nationally) and 39.2% from beyond it (also 352nd), per KenPom. Included in the 2P% number: opponents shot a staggering 70.9% at the rim (353rd), per Hoop Math

• UT Martin went 9-18 ATS, while the OVER went 19-8 – that’s screaming “we do not guard anyone”

• And finally, the pièce de résistance: UT Martin’s AdjDE was 122.9. Gonzaga, the best offense in the country, had an AdjOE of 121.3. In a creative way of thinking, that means “Team Playing UT Martin” had the best offense in the country

Look, sometimes we talk about bad shooting luck and regression to the mean. But if every shot is wide open and opponents feel like they’re playing against air, then it turns out a lot of shots will go in!

Is there any hope of extinguishing that defensive conflagration? Under Coach Anthony Stewart, the defense wasn’t much better in 2018-19, and his Downy-soft zone defenses may be a long-term problem. On the other hand, the Skyhawks turn over nearly their entire frontcourt personnel this year, bringing in a veritable army of JUCO transfers to hopefully stem the defensive tide, at least somewhat.

Hannes Polla and Eric Rustin are the only returning big men, and they combined to play just 18.3 minutes per game. Polla, a 270-pound Finnish transfer from Oklahoma, lacks foot speed, while Rustin is a rail-thin 185 pounds despite standing 7’1. That means plenty of opportunity for newcomers Ajani Kennedy, La’Quiem Walker, and K’Suan Casey, with the former two the most likely to quickly earn playing time. Both Kennedy and Walker have more mobility and bulk than anyone on the roster last season, and they immediately become the two best glass cleaners on the roster.

Of course, there’s a reasonable chance Stewart opts to continue trying to outscore his opponents while playing track meet-style games, meaning he could play small with Cam Holden or Jaron Williams manning the PF spot in a small-ball lineup. Holden was wildly productive in a competitive JUCO conference, and the fact that he averaged a double-double while standing just 6’5 makes him a demigod among mere mortals on this rebounding-starved squad.

The bulk of the scoring and creation will come from Parker Stewart, a former Pitt transfer who doubles as – you guessed it – the coach’s son. He’s a legitimate star in the OVC, and if the team actually improves, he’ll certainly have the production to warrant All-OVC first team honors. He’s a tough shot maker, and his size at the point guard spot makes him an incredibly difficult matchup. Per Hoop Lens, UT Martin scored 1.06 points per possession when he played, and that number tumbled to 0.97 PPP when he sat.

Part-time starter Eman Sertovic also returns, giving (Coach) Stewart a lengthy guard duo, and adding JUCO transfers Jonte Coleman (111 threes made last year at 44.9%), Eden Holt (another scoring point guard), and Vinnie Viana (a deadly shooter but limited athlete) only add to this backcourt’s offensive pop.

Bottom Line: The offense should be formidable, but frantically covering the gaping defensive holes with JUCO duct tape is a shaky fix at best. It would be hard for the Skyhawks’ defense to be that bad again, but even a marked improvement (say, to 2018-19 levels) likely leaves UT Martin with a bottom 15 unit nationally. Until those issues are solved, both in the paint and on the perimeter, UT Martin’s ceiling is probably a fun team who will play a bunch of shootouts and occasionally win a couple when (Parker) Stewart is scalding hot from outside.

10. SEMO

Key Returners: Chris Harris (injury), DQ Nicholas, Nygal Russell, Darrious Agnew
Key Losses: Skyler Hogan, Quatarrius Wilson, Isaiah Gable (transfer), Sage Tolbert (transfer), Alex Caldwell (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Nana Akenten (Nebraska), Nolan Taylor (Cal Poly), Eric Reed, Jr. (JUCO), Nate Johnson (JUCO), Dylan Branson, Manny Patterson (Green Bay)***, Parker Long (D-II transfer)***

*** - needs waiver to play right away. It’s unclear if they have even requested them, so we expect both to sit.

Lineup:

Outlook: Did you know that there’s a large casino in Cape Girardeau? Hang on, let’s back up: did you know Cape Girardeau is where SEMO is located? Both are true! If you knew both of those things, congratulations on the combination of your college city knowledge and gambling problem – I attend the same support group. The Redhawk administration gambled on Rick Ray, hiring the failed Mississisippi State boss in 2015, and just like what happens at said casino far too frequently, the house won. Ray went 51-104 in five seasons, never mustering more than 15 wins in a year, leading SEMO to make the mid-pandemic move to fire Ray and bring in longtime Division I assistant Brad Korn.

Korn has spent the vast majority of his career under the tutelage of two coaches who pride themselves on physical man-to-man defense: Chris Lowery (Southern Illinois) and Bruce Weber (Kansas State) – not coincidentally, Lowery was and is a longtime Weber assistant. After years of hapless execution on that end, Korn will prioritize that identity, pushing his guards to be aggressive both on and off the ball to make foes uncomfortable.

Sophomore PG DQ Nicholas and sturdy wing Nygal Russell have some potential there, and little-used Taiwanese reserve Oscar Kao could see some added playing time thanks to his peskiness on D. JUCO transfer Eric Reed could end up being the team’s best perimeter defender thanks to his combination of quickness and anticipation, but he’ll have to beat out the veterans for minutes.  

Nana Akenten, versatile transfer forward who sat out last year, should amp up the roster’s defensive flexibility. He has the physical toolbox to adequately lock up as many as four positions, so extracting that effort out of the scoring-minded wing will be one of Korn’s key tasks. As of this writing, Manny Patterson does not yet have a waiver (and may not even request one), but adding his athletic 6’8 frame would similarly make the Redhawks more fungible defensively. Both guys should benefit greatly from the step down in competition.  

Both Lowery and Weber found the most success defensively when their squads paired those turnovers with owning the defensive boards. The Redhawks’ two best glass-eaters are gone, but Darrious Agnew should prove useful, and Akenten, Russell, and (maybe) Patterson all rebound well for their positions. If healthy, widebody Nolan Taylor could be a force in the paint in the OVC; he struggled to stay on the court last year, but the big man did explode for 35 points and nine rebounds in a 4OT game against Cal State Fullerton and started 20 games as a freshman for Pepperdine back in 2016-17, so the potential is there.

The offense may end up an afterthought this year as Korn looks to instill a hard-nosed mindset, but if it does take a jump, it will probably be due to Akenten and a healthy Chris Harris. Harris only played in two games before suffering a season-ending injury, but he racked up 31 combined points against Purdue Fort Wayne and Vanderbilt, showing plenty of confidence from the outside and attacking the rim. Korn will likely run Bruce Weber’s motion offense mixed in with some pick-and-roll, and featuring Harris offers the highest upside. Nicholas fell apart down the stretch of his rookie year, but he should evolve into a serviceable distributor and creator, as well.

Bottom Line: SEMO has four winning league campaigns since 2001 and went 3-15 in the league last year, so Korn probably knows this is a rebuilding job (er, “building” job). He has some solid pieces already, though, and the additions of Harris, Akenten, and Taylor give the Redhawks enough juice to cobble together some victories – provided they buy into Korn’s defensive mindset. If they don’t, they’ll get roasted in a resurgent OVC.

11. Tennessee Tech

Key Returners: Jr. Clay, Keishawn Davidson, Tujautae Williams, Amadou Sylla
Key Losses: Hunter Vick (transfer), Darius Allen, Cade Crosland
Key Newcomers: Damaria Franklin (JUCO), Taelon Peter, Kenny White, Austin Harvell, Marcus Hopkins (JUCO), Shandon Goldman (Northern Iowa), CJ Gettlefinger (Oakland)

Lineup:

Outlook: The mid-/high-major landscape is littered with coaches who, despite failing at a power conference job, are succeeding in their second go-round at a level where they’ve already won: John Groce (Akron), Travis Ford (SLU), Ed DeChellis (Navy), Steve Donahue (Penn), etc. Tennessee Tech’s hiring of John Pelphrey last offseason aimed to join this group, as the former South Alabama boss never found positive momentum in four seasons at Arkansas. It was always going to be a difficult rebuilding job in Cookeville, but his first year didn’t abound with promise: 9-23 overall, 6-12 in the OVC, and the program’s worst KenPom ranking (331st) in the site’s history, which dates back to 1997. Nowhere to go but up, right?

At the very least, Pelphrey has a promising backcourt trio around which he can construct his spread pick-and-roll system. Jr. Clay, an All-OVC Second Team selection last year, and promising sophomore Keishawn Davidson form a dual-point guard backcourt who combined to average 8.3 assists per game last year, and both can knock down an open perimeter shot if left alone. Their intelligent passing may be undermined by a lack of spacing around them, though, as the team’s three best perimeter threats all departed in the offseason. That also hurts slashing wing Tujautae Williams, a bigger guard who also plays some small-ball four in Pelphrey’s scheme.

None of those three got to the free throw line with enough frequency, and the team’s lack of a true inside threat made it nearly impossible for the Golden Eagles to get easy points; they ranked 351st nationally in free throw rate. Amadou Sylla was the team’s only “true” big man and PnR screener, and the team clearly suffered when he hit the bench:

He’s an active rebounder on both ends and an aggressive finisher inside, although he’s fairly limited on the offensive end. He’s the only returner taller than 6’6.

Thus, the offense will need a lift from the newcomers, both inside and out. Oakland transfer CJ Gettelfinger should also make an impact as a scorer in the backcourt. A former TN Mr. Basketball finalist, the lefty has size and ball skills that make him a natural fit in Pelphrey’s offense, despite struggling in the Horizon. JUCO addition Damaria Franklin is more in the Williams mold as a slasher, but he was a prolific scorer (19.6 PPG) at State Fair CC, and the offense needs any boost it can get. That may also help bouncy freshman Taelon Peter see the court as well; unfortunately, this group still lacks pure shooters.

Up front, Shandon “Biggie” Goldman offers the most upside. He redshirted at Northern Iowa last year, but he contributed in 2018-19, even tallying 10 points and six rebounds against big brother Iowa. He’s not a great athlete, but he has size and should immediately be the team’s best (and only?) post threat. Versatile freshmen Kenny White and Austin Harvell will hope to fill the shoes of Darius Allen, a unique player on last year’s team who could rebound, defend forwards, and knock down threes.

Goldman and 7-foot JUCO transfer Marcus Hopkins will hopefully shore up the defense at the rim, as foes made 64% of their attempts there last year, a bottom-40 rate nationally. Sylla could only do so much, and it didn’t help that opponents often easily beat the young perimeter group off the bounce. Pelphrey tried to mix in some zone to combat that, but the Golden Eagles also got lit up from deep, so it was a “pick your poison” dilemma for TTU.

Bottom Line: Improvement for Tennessee Tech should come via development out of its young perimeter group and adding more size and athleticism to the paint. The offense may still struggle to get to the line, though, and the dearth of wing shooting is particularly alarming in Pelphrey’s scheme. The painful rebuild in Cookeville likely continues this year, especially as the rest of the OVC improves around the Golden Eagles.  

12. SIU Edwardsville

Key Returners: Cameron Williams, Mike Adewunmi, Shamar Wright, Iziah James
Key Losses: Zeke Moore (transfer), Brandon Jackson, Tyresse Williford, Kenyon Duling (transfer), Anselm Uzuegbunam
Key Newcomers: Sidney Wilson (UConn), Courtney Carter (JUCO), Phillip Pepple Jr. (JUCO), Ray’Sean Taylor, Desmond Polk, Carlos Curtis (JUCO), Michael Matas

Lineup:

Outlook: Following the unconventional move of firing Jon Harris but retaining his entire staff, Brian Barone rewarded the administration’s faith in him by…winning fewer games than Harris did in his final season, both overall and in OVC play. A league-opening victory at powerhouse Belmont offered brief hope, but it was “same old Cougars” from that point on, not qualifying for the conference’s postseason tournament and ranking in the bottom 40 nationally per KenPom.

It’s an extremely difficult job, no doubt: in 12 years of Division I play, SIUE has never won more than 12 games and never finished better than .500 in conference play. The expectations are thus not high, so Barone needs only to mildly overachieve to impress. To that end, he brought in a promising crew of newcomers that could hopefully propel the Cougars into the middle of the league.

The headliner is UConn import Sidney Wilson, an enticing down-transfer whose size and scoring ability could make him SIUE’s best player right away. Barone’s offense took too many mid-range jumpers last year, but the 6’7 Wilson could be a weapon from that range. Guys who can do this at Wilson’s size don’t come around the OVC often:

He could play alongside Shamar Wright, another promising 6’7 wing/forward with some ball skills who is due to make a leap in his second season. Finding the right way to use those guys will be crucial for Barone.

Barone’s offense is mostly motion-based, meaning it’s less reliant on a single creator, but JUCO transfer Courtney Carter stuffed the stat sheet against admittedly inferior competition and should fill the role vacated by the graduated Tyresse Williford. Fellow JUCO transfer Carlos Curtis is a 205-pound brick house, a physical driver who also has

The promising freshman tandem of Ray’Sean Taylor and Desmond Polk can also handle some creation burden, and veteran Cam Williams brings experience in the scheme. The question will be whether the backcourt has enough shooting to put stress on defenses, as Williams was painfully inefficient last year, and Carter and Curtis were low volume perimeter shooters in junior college. That gives Taylor and Polk a clear opportunity to play if they can knock down shots, and Mike Adewunmi should retain value for that purpose alone (37.7% from deep).

Defensively, the Cougars got crushed at the rim, allowing foes to shoot 63.5% (308th nationally). Enter Philip Pepple Jr., another JUCO transfer who averaged nearly 3 blocks per game for Casper College, a solid program that went 25-6. He should start immediately as the paint anchor, allowing the perimeter plays to be more aggressive and extend beyond the three-point line.

Barone zoned a fair amount last year (nearly 20% of the time), and the Cougars were excellent at it, allowing just 0.819 PPP, per Synergy. Mixing that in more might be to their benefit, though it’s difficult to match up with shooters in that alignment.

Bottom Line: Reasons for optimism exist in Edwardsville: it’s Barone’s second season in charge, so he should have his sea legs under him, and the crop of newcomers could conceivably vault the Cougars into the top eight. I’m sticking with a “wait and see” approach on Barone, though, and the transition from junior college to Division I can be a rocky one, while Wilson has his own risks off the court after multiple suspensions in Storrs. Brighter days may be ahead, but I’m not ready to predict them coming this year.