-Jim Root

Key Returners: CJ Walker, Duane Washington, Kyle Young, E.J. Liddell
Key Losses: Kaleb Wesson (pro), Luther Muhammad (transfer), Andre Wesson, D.J. Carton (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Seth Towns (Harvard), Justice Sueing (Cal), Eugene Brown III, Zed Key, Abel Porter (Utah State)

Lineup:

Outlook: Following a loss to Ohio State in Las Vegas, John Calipari definitively declared the 11-1 Buckeyes “a top 1, 2, 3 team.” Chris Holtmann’s team held blowout wins against Villanova, at UNC (before the Heels’ implosion), and Penn State, plus solid victories against Cincinnati and Kentucky. Heading into the holidays, Ohio State looked every bit of a national title contender. Unfortunately, the players scarfed too much Christmas ham (or read too many press clippings), because the Buckeyes then lost four in a row and six of seven en route to a 2-6 start to Big Ten play. The splits were pronounced:

Ultimately, water found its level: Ohio State went 21-10 and was likely headed for a 4- or 5-seed in the Big Dance, pending Big Ten Tournament results. It was a season with clear highs and lows, and Holtmann will no doubt be seeking more consistency from his squad this year.

Speaking of consistency, Holtmann’s squads in Columbus have been just that on the defensive end, ranking 19th, 25th, and 15th in KenPom’s AdjDE over the past three seasons. It’s a pack line-esque approach: keep opponents out of the lane and away from the rim, clog driving lanes, and clean the defensive glass. It’s extremely difficult to score against OSU if you can’t shoot, but if the threes are falling, the Buckeyes can be exposed. That was the case for much of the Big Ten season, as foes hit 34.8% of their triples, the highest rate in the conference.

Another of the pack line-adjacent principles in Ohio State’s defense is the denial of transition opportunities. Holtmann specifically teaches how to convert from offense to defense, and this attention to detail has paid off, as opponents finished just 12.4% of their possessions in transition last year, a bottom-50 rate in the country, per Synergy.  

Though OSU loses a strong defender in Luther Muhammad, the perimeter still has several solid pieces to lean on. CJ Walker is a ballhawk at point guard, and he really blossomed after getting the spot outright when DJ Carton took a leave of absence from the team (and subsequently transferred). Musa Jallow, who took a medical redshirt last year, is a defensive specialist, and the team adds two multi-positional athletes in Seth Towns (Harvard) and Justice Sueing (Cal). Sueing brings a more touted defensive reputation, but both players have the size and versatility to shine in Holtmann’s system. Eugene Brown III adds more wing depth as a lanky 6’6 slasher.

Without big Kaleb Wesson clogging the paint, the interior defense gets smaller, but both Kyle Young and EJ Liddell can be positive contributors on this end. Young is fiery and physical, a terrific rebounder for his size and an emotional bellwether for the team – the Buckeyes’ January swoon directly coincided with Young sustaining an ankle injury and missing time. Liddell is undersized at 6’6, but he was a monster shot-blocker in high school (3.8 per game as a senior), and that carried into his first college campaign, ranking 9th in the B1G in block rate. Raw sophomore Ibrahima Diallo is the lone true center on the roster, so he’ll be given every chance to play, but Holtmann may feel inclined to use the team’s deep group of forwards instead if he struggles.

Wesson was also the fulcrum of the offense, a versatile big with inside-out skills who could dominate in the post or step out and beat teams as a pick-and-pop option. Liddell has similar scoring skills inside: he ranked in the 92nd percentile nationally on post up possessions, per Synergy, but he’ll need to show more passing prowess as teams send more double-teams at him:

Wesson excelled at this, consistently putting defenses in rotation and helping set up open triples, which was a big part of why OSU shot 37.3% from deep (23rd in the country). Freshman Zed Key adds to the depth, and the underrated big man fits the team mold as a strong back-to-the-basket scorer.

That elite perimeter shooting took a hit with the departures of Wesson (42.5%), his brother Andre Wesson (42.2%), and DJ Carton (40.0%), but this group should still be able to space the floor. Duane Washington is a sharpshooter and a burgeoning multi-level scorer, Walker is solid, and Towns and Sueing can both hit shots (Towns was at 43.7% when he last played in 2017-18). Reserve Justin Ahrens a one-trick pony, but when that trick is hitting over 40% of his triples, it’s worth bringing that pony to the show. Holtmann also snagged a steady backup for Walker this offseason, bringing in Abel Porter from Utah State, a starter on two tournament-quality teams in Logan that shot 41.1% from beyond the arc in 2018-19 before slumping this past season. Porter is an underwhelming athlete, to say the least, but if Andrew Dakich can be a legitimately valuable role player in Holtmann’s system, then Porter certainly can be, as well.

Towns and Sueing are more than just shooters. Towns can be a featured option, even as an Ivy grad transfer – he’s plenty talented. Sueing wasn’t great while playing under the Wyking Jones Cloud of Doom at Cal, but he flashes exciting abilities for his size and strength. Holtmann will put him in places to score, whether it be the mid-post or attacking closeouts against rotating defenders, where he can use his frame and ball skills to bully his way to the hoop.

The biggest risk with this squad is the health of the two transfer forwards. Towns hasn’t played a competitive game since March 2018 (a campaign in which he won Ivy Player of the Year), while Sueing sat out all of last year after undergoing foot surgery instead of getting to practice with the team. If either or both players can’t get back to full strength or miss time, the Buckeye offense becomes vulnerable.

Bottom Line: This is a Chris Holtmann-coached team with talent inside and out, so Ohio State isn’t going anywhere. The Buckeyes will be mired in the high-quality muck that exists in the Big Ten’s top nine or so teams, and differentiating from that glut of solid squads will be a challenge. Still, if Towns and Sueing provide versatile scoring punch and Liddell develops as an offensive hub on the block, OSU should have a high-ish ceiling on both ends of the floor, with Sweet 16 being a realistic positive outcome.