-Matt Cox

Key Returners: Caleb Love, Armando Bacot, Kerwin Walton, Leaky Black, RJ Davis, Anthony Harris, Puff Johnson
Key Losses: Garrison Brooks, Day'Ron Sharpe, Walker Kessler
Key Newcomers: Brady Manek (Oklahoma), Justin McKoy (Virginia), Dawson Garcia (Marquette), D'Marco Dunn, Dontrez Styles

Lineup: 

Outlook: Alas, new blood for the ‘Blue Bloods’.

The ironclad foundation underpinning Tobacco Road’s two most powerful empires hasn’t been rattled in decades. Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski were synonymous with stability, consistency, and continuity.

Roy and K are immortal in terms of college hoops folklore, but the expiration date on their reign was inevitable. The successorship rumor mill ran wild for years. With each passing season, the crescendo of anticipation for a transition of power at the highest stakes grew louder. Then, the sonic boom.

Hubert Davis was ultimately chosen as the man for the mission, a Tar Heel through-and-through. Davis paid his dues for 10-years under Roy’s tutelage as an assistant, nearly two decades removed from his playing days in the Carolina blue. For Davis, this Tar Heel lineage sits at the epicenter of his program redesign, which is exemplified in his staff’s construction. Despite throwing a couple jabs at the arch nemesis a few miles down the road, Davis is cozying up to his own version of Duke’s ‘all in the family’ mentality:

*Editor’s Note: To all Tar Heel fans, apologies for not recognizing Dean Smith’s inception of the UNC Family concept, which obviously predates Duke’s ‘Brotherhood’ mantra. Yes, I’m aware of it. No, I do not think Hubert Davis is modeling his ‘culture’ off Duke. Yes, I am a Duke fan. No, I could not help myself. Carry on…

“I wanted a staff that went to North Carolina and played at North Carolina,” says Davis. “I think you have a great opportunity to do this job well if you’ve experienced it as a player. It’s not the only way, of course, but given there are so many former players who are coaching, it’s a great way to build my first staff as the head coach. It was important for each of the assistants to have a connection with Coach Smith, Coach Guthridge, Coach Doherty and Coach Williams. It connects each of the former head coaches’ personalities to our current team, which was a huge incentive for me in constructing this staff. Carolina Basketball is all of them and I wanted a staff that had that diversity of experiences to give the most to our players.

I’m fascinated to see how this staff makeover pans out long-term (Sean May and Jeff Lebo were the notable additions) but let’s not jump the gun. North Carolina isn’t in the business of ‘rebuilding’. There’s no grace period for ‘establishing culture’ or ‘building a foundation’. Davis knows this. It’s time to win now.

From a roster perspective, the stars aligned for the first-year head honcho. Boosted by a few major wins in the transfer portal, Davis will go to work with a nucleus well equipped to bring his futuristic vision of UNC basketball to life. A logjam of Paul Bunyan bigs no longer dominates the roster – now, it’s a Trail Mix variety of prototypes scattered across all five positions, a perfect placemat for Davis to instill his modernized brand of basketball. Yummy!

Rehabilitating the backcourt sits at the forefront of Davis’ renovation project. Consistent guard play has escaped the Heels in recent years, resulting in volatile in-game and in-season ebbs and flows. Granted, the perimeter corps may look like a carbon copy of last year’s unit but their best basketball is ahead of them.

As a fellow St. Louisan, I was bummed to see Caleb Love struggle in his rookie campaign. Put simply, he’s the fulcrum of the backcourt and wields a big stick of influence over the Heels’ offense. With great power comes great responsibility, they say. Accounting for the 7th highest usage rate in the ACC while posting a 37% effective field goal percentage and sub 90 O-Rating is a criminal abuse of that power.

The following chart from SB Nation’s Tar Heel blog contextualizes Love’s production and efficiency with other notable Tar Heel floor generals in their rookie seasons. The takeaway? While many freshman point guards deal with growing pains, Love’s looked like the most…erm… painful?

It’s easy to throw shade at Love but I’m cautiously optimistic a lightbulb switches on this year. That said, I’m perhaps even more bullish over Love’s backcourt bandmates:

• Anthony Harris may be an afterthought to most ACC fans but the best version of Harris (read: healthy) is an ideal remedy to Love’s flaws – a steady, reliable table setter.

• Harris’ inability to stay on the floor last year paved the way for RJ Davis to shine, particularly down the stretch. Like Harris, Davis can initiate the offense as the primary handler but also slide to the wing to complement Love.

• Last, but certainly not least (in fact, my favorite of the bunch), is Kerwin Walton. An oversimplified description of Walton is Kenny Williams 2.0. A model of efficiency, Walton’s ability to stroke it from deep is a precious resource on this roster.

• Underrated rookie D'Marco Dunn will have to leapfrog a number of established pieces to earn consistent playing time, but the sharpshooting combo guard may be too valuable to keep on ice. As spotlighted in Heat Check’s Underrated Freshmen profiles, Dunn was one of the premier 3-point drillers on the grassroots circuit last season.

Don’t get distracted by my guard bullishness: this is still Armando Bacot’s world. The aforementioned perimeter corps will orbit around Bacot’s big body up front as the Heels’ one-man wrecking crew in the middle. Gone are the extended timeshares up front with Day’Ron Sharpe, Garrison Brooks or Walker Kessler. Bacot will be UNC’s master and commander of the lane on both ends of floor, an alpha role he seized with conviction down the stretch last season – take note of Bacot’s dominance when the calendar turned to March:

The transition from Roy to Hubert means there’s no longer an electric fence around the restricted area. As Riley Davis points out in his WTE top-25 team briefing, Bacot will be granted more freedom to roam on offense.

The frontcourt makeover continues with the infusion of Dawson Garcia, Brady Manek and Justin McCoy. Garcia’s immense talent alone fueled him to a productive inaugural season at Marquette, but he may find a new gear in Chapel Hill. We’ve not seen his shooting or passing ability on full display yet, which will pair nicely with Bacot up front. Manek is a super deluxe edition of your typical inverse forward, vastly underrated as a defender in space and as an interior scorer. McCoy is more of a hybrid wing / forward tweener, a familiar ACC foe who will challenge the enigmatic Leaky Black for playing time.

Black is the final name we’re obligated to mention in this preview. Black’s defensive versatility and unique offensive skill set duped many prognosticators the last few seasons – though, last season’s regression may not have been entirely his fault. The star-studded 2020 recruiting class created a barrier for consistent minutes on the wing, as did the forest of trees jamming up potential driving lanes and interior scoring pockets. Ultimately, a lot of uncontrollable variables have been working against Black up until this point in his career.

Regardless, Black’s efficiency dipped last year, as did his playing time. If Kenny Williams is the low hanging fruit comp for Kerwin Walton, Theo Pinson is a slam dunk parallel for Black. It took Pinson time to harness his vast array of tools into a useful swiss-army knife but Black’s running out of runway to reach a similar epiphany. To date, his ‘good at everything but great at nothing’ skill set hasn’t yielded the returns Tar Heels fans hoped for.

Bottom Line: Talent, versatility, and depth. Check, check and check.

In essence, this roster is almost ‘too good to fail’, which gives Davis a sturdy ‘floor’ in his first head coaching rodeo.

That said, all roads to greater aspirations begin with Love. If he blooms into a ‘Coby White Lite’, this mid-teens projection could look foolish by season’s end. But, absent a major leap from Love, beware of the same offensive turbulence we saw last season. As much as I love the guard undercard of Davis, Walton, Harris and Dunn, UNC’s ceiling is heavily leveraged on Love’s development.