-Matt Cox

It’s Tuesday morning, February 25th, 2020.

For some reason, CNN is howling in the background on my bedroom television as I begin to scribe this article.

Am I a politics guy? No - but that won’t stop me from pretending to be informed.

After about 10 minutes of hearing the same regurgitated and paraphrased themes from the 1,574,903 remaining candidates still vying for the Democratic nomination…

Inclusion… Togetherness… Equality…

…that’s when it hit me.

The college basketball media society is suffering from the same elitist mentality these politicians are shouting relentlessly about. Bracketology updates. Bubble Watch revisions. All this is pandering to the NCAA Tournament at-large locks and bubble hopefuls - the bourgeoisie of college basketball - and ignoring the less privileged, postseason-deprived ‘peasants’.

To the 2019-20 disenfranchised college basketball faithful, alienated by biased content that sheds no light on the future, allow me to be your voice. Let this piece serve as your rallying cry.

Repeat after me: Next year is OUR year.

On The Cusp

These are teams on the outer fringe of the NCAA Tournament at-large conversion, who are more likely destined for the NIT, CBI or CIT. The fusion of an elite coach and a ‘copy/paste’ roster from this year to next are why these five squads are ready-to-launch rocket ships in 2021.

SMU

Key Projected Returners: Kendric Davis, Tyson Jolly, Isiaha Mike, Ethan Chargois, Feron Hunt, Emmanuel Bandoumel
Key Projected Departure(s): None
Key Projected Newcomer(s): Darius McNeil (Cal transfer; 11 PPG in ‘18-‘19)
2020-21 Optimistic Prognosis: NCAA Tournament (5-7 seed), Top-3 AAC finish
Key Swing Factor: Health

Confession: there’s a nonzero chance the idea for this entire article was incepted from the notion of getting to gush about SMU… 

Kendric Davis, the conductor of the Pony Express, has made a quantum leap this year, solidifying the lead guard spot for at least one more season. Davis is hyper efficient as both a scorer and distributor, but it’s his pass-first mindset that sets the tone for the Mustangs. Last year, we saw SMU slip with an assertive scorer, Jahmal McMurray, as the de facto alpha. Davis is a call back to Shake Milton, SMU’s maestro in 2016 and 2017, more of an unselfish lead ball handler who sets an example for the sharing culture head coach Tim Jankovich demands.

With two of the top JUCO talents in the country, Tyson Jolly and Emmaunel Bandoumel, rapidly assimilating to the D1 game, along with the versatile frontcourt trio of Isaiah Mike, Ethan Chargois and Feron Hunt – the latter two of which may have NBA futures in the horizon – the Pony Express will be full steam ahead in 2021. Freshman Charles Smith (a former 4-star recruit per Rivals.com and ESPN.com) and transfer Darius McNeil (averaged 11 PPG at Cal in 2017-18) will bolster the backcourt depth and with how cruel the basketball Gods have been to Jankovich over the years, both should expect to play featured roles next year.

Competition will be fierce, though. Houston and Wichita State already sit on the right side of the NCAA Tournament at-large projection fence this season, both of whom return most everyone of importance next year. Memphis could actually be underrated (wait, is that even possible?) thanks to a sneaky strong freshmen and sophomore class that’s been largely overshadowed by the James Wiseman and Penny Hardaway circus. Even Tulsa, currently in 2nd place in the AAC standings, boasts a junior-laden roster that could make yet another push at the top of the leaderboard next year.

St. Bonaventure

Key Projected Returners: Kyle Lofton, Jaren English, Osun Osunniyi, Dom Welch, Justin Winston, Bobby Planutis
Key Projected Departure(s): Amadi Ikpeze
Key Projected Newcomer(s): Jalen Adaway (Miami Ohio transfer; 8 PPG, 5 RPG in ‘18-‘19)
2020-21 Optimistic Prognosis: NCAA Tournament (8-10 seed), Top-3 A-10 finish
Key Swing Factor: Health

The Bonnies dug themselves 10 feet under before Thanksgiving break, accumulating losses to Ohio, Siena and Canisius all within the first two weeks of the season.

No Osun Osunniyi. No Jaren English. Big F***in problem.

I know you came here for hard hitting basketball analysis, so here it is: removing a shot-blocking savant (Osunniyi) and a dynamic wing (English) from a team’s armory is… harmful. Osunniyi and English were both injured for the first five games of the season (Osunnuiyi got hurt against Ohio in the season opener), enabling inferior challengers to pounce on the wounded Bonnies.

12 wins in 13 tries later, Osunniyi suffered another untimely setback right before a brutal three game stretch: at VCU, at Dayton and vs. Rhode Island. Without Osunnuiyi’s lasso arms swinging around the rim (his wingspan is reportedly measured at 7’8), the A-10’s cream of the crop stomped the Bonnies back to back to back.

It doesn’t take more than 10 minutes of watching St. Bonaventure to appreciate how much Osunniyi means to this team. Defensively, he erases everything at the rim, but is still agile enough to defend on the perimeter without being torched off the dribble. Offensively, he’s an immovable barricade as a screener, which allows English and sophomore star Kyle Lofton, next up in an esteemed lineage of great Bonnie guards, to create favorable driving angles in pick-n-roll action.

In game when Osunniyi’s played 18 or more minutes this season, the Bonnies are 17-2. When he doesn’t: 1-8.

Please stay healthy, Osun.

Utah

Key Projected Returners: Timmy Allen, Both Gach, Rylan Jones, Riley Battin, Mikael Jantunen, Branden Carlson, Jaxon Brenchley
Key Projected Departure(s): None
Key Projected Newcomer(s): N/A
2020-21 Optimistic Prognosis: NCAA Tournament (6-9 seed), Top-3 Pac 12 finish
Key Swing Factor: Timmy Allen & Both Gach’s development and consistency (also, Health)

The freshman wall is a real phenomenon in college basketball. When the season ends, dozens of teams all across America will look back at the Grand Canyon-sized chasm between their non-conference and conference performances. The Utes, who currently rank 351st in KenPom’s ‘Experience’ metric, are no exception.

With virtually no upperclassmen on the roster, veteran leadership vacancies were filled, perhaps prematurely, by sophomore standouts Timmy Allen and Both Gach. Allen and Gach hurdled that freshman wall with ease last year, which is why their current sophomore slumps are hard to rationalize. Lingering injuries are a fair excuse, one that applies to the entire Utes roster, but Head Coach Larry Krystkowiak has not been shy about expressing his frustration with some of his ‘older guys’ throughout the year.

The latest injury bug bite caught Rylan Jones, Utah’s baby genius at point guard (he could fill in for a local middle school rec league team without suspicion). Jones is the table setter Allen and Gach need to flourish on their respective wings, so I’m keeping my fingers crossed that Allen and Gach stay put in Salt Lake. If Allen and Gach can recapture that early magic, we’ve already witnessed how high the Utes can fly – the proof is in the non-conference pudding, headlined by wins over Nevada, Minnesota, BYU and Kentucky.

Virginia Tech

Key Projected Returners: Landers Nolley, PJ Horne, Wabissa Bede, Jalen Cone, Tyrece Radford, Nahiem Alleyne, Hunter Cattoor, Isaiah Wilkins, Jonathan Kabongo
Key Projected Departure(s): None
Key Projected Newcomer(s): Joe Bamisile (#71 ranked freshman, per 247 composite rankings), Darius Maddox (#94 ranked freshman, per 247 composite rankings), Keve Aluma (Wofford transfer; 7 PPG, 7 RPG in ‘18-‘19)
2020-21 Optimistic Prognosis: NCAA Tournament (5-8 seed), Top-7 ACC finish
Key Swing Factor: Landers Nolley’s sophomore leap

Take note of the rankings next to both of those freshmen listed above. I’d say we’re passed the “can Mike Young recruit at an ACC level?” concerns, eh?

Forget what happens the rest of the season. Young’s already accomplished exactly what he needed to in year 1: generate early buzz and build momentum on the recruiting trail. The Hokies’ hype arrived in the form of a tidal wave at Maui, where VT surgically deconstructed Michigan State’s defense. Three months have passed and that marquee win over Sparty is still drowning out the Hokies’ flaws and blemishes this season. I mean, is anyone aware that Virginia Tech is 15-13 (6-11 in the ACC) and 1-8 over their last nine games? The more important question is, does anyone care?

No. Nor should we.

Mike Young’s collection of crafty cutters and 3-point snipers is rebuking any notion that lack of size equals lack of defensive stability. The Hokies, who often play 6’7 Landers Nolley at the 5 in a true five guard lineup, are still clinging to a top-100 ranked defense (8th best in the ACC, per KenPom), reinforced by a five-man gang of rebounders that routinely keeps larger opponents off the offensive glass. A five-guard approach is extreme for ACC standards, but 6’10 freshman John Ojiako and 6’9 Wofford transfer Keve Aluma should help restore some balance to the interior, arming Young with some refreshing frontline depth and lineup optionality.

Something to keep an eye on this summer will be the transfer inertia, particularly on the perimeter. The incumbent guards aren’t blind to the fact that both 4-star freshmen, Joe and Darius Maddox, are almost certain to factor into Young’s immediate and long-term plans. And even though Young will play four and sometimes five guards, 11 players will be vying for serious playing time at the 1-4 positions (including Jon Kabongo, who has been shut down for the season). Given the current trigger-happy transfer state of college basketball, you have to wonder if one or two of these dudes – especially guys recruited by Buzz Williams – will test the transfer waters and avoid the risk of being relegated to the back of the line in this perimeter logjam.

Saint Louis

Key Projected Returners: Jordan Goodwin, Hashan French, Javonte Perkins, Yuri Collins, Gibson Jimerson, Demarius Jacobs, Terrence Hargrove, Jimmy Bell
Key Projected Departure(s): Tay Weaver
Key Projected Newcomer(s): TBD
2020-21 Optimistic Prognosis: NCAA Tournament (9-11 seed), Top-5 A-10 finish
Key Swing Factor: Free Throw Shooting + Floor Spacing

If you’re building a team around a two-player starter kit, Jordan Goodwin and Hashan French isn’t a bad place to start. Ignoring their height and positional label differences, Goodwin and French are carbon copies of one another: big, tenacious defenders and ELITE rebounders, who also own the bulk of the scoring and shot creation responsibilities on offense.

Led by Goodwin and French, the physical Bills quite literally barreled their way to the Atlantic-10’s automatic bid last year. The advanced analytics indicate this year’s group is actually a slight notch above last year’s rendition, as the Baby Bills finally stopped ignoring a rather important part of basketball: shooting.

Last year, SLU effectively played Rollerball on hardwood. Points were earned the hard way by persistently sling-shotting bodies toward the rim, in hopes of getting a put back or a whistle. The offense is still a long way from a beauty contest, but thanks to Javonte Perkins, Demarious Jacobs, Gibson Jimerson and Tay Weaver, SLU finally has a prayer of scoring outside of 10 feet. Weaver is the lone anticipated departure this summer, which leaves Perkins, Jacobs and Jimerson as the wings of the future.

The challenge for Travis Ford will be lineup optimization. This year, Ford has placed his full trust behind freshman point guard Yuri Collins. Similar to Goodwin, Collins is a tremendous slasher and facilitator, but lacks faith in his outside jumper, which severely cramps the floor spacing on offense. The remedy I’ve seen work to some degree is sliding the 6’7 French up to the 5, allowing the Bills to insert two shooters to compliment Collins, Goodwin and French. Ford is enamored by freshman Jimmy Bell, an enticing 6’10 prospect with mounds of potential, but the most balanced lineup – at least from what we’ve witnessed this season – features French as the main man in the middle.

Lurking in the Shadows…

These are teams with a strong foundation intact to make a push in 2021, but unlike the group above, the following must replenish some serious output from this season. An under-valued young nucleus is the reason trio is well equipped to take a step forward in 2021, despite the impending exodus of some notable names this summer.

Connecticut

Key Projected Returners: James Bouknight, Akok Akok, Jalen Gaffney, Alterique Gilbert, Josh Carlton
Key Projected Departure(s): Christian Vital
Key Projected Newcomer(s): RJ Cole (Howard transfer; 21 PPG, 6 APG in ‘18-’19), Andre Jackson (#78 ranked freshman, per 247 composite rankings), Javonte Brown-Ferguson (#135 ranked freshman, per 247 composite rankings)
2020-21 Optimistic Prognosis: NCAA Tournament (7-9 seed), Top-6 Big East finish
Key Swing Factor: Health (specifically, Alterique Gilbert and Akok Akok)

Intense program pressure and lofty expectations isn’t as scary as the Army of the Dead, but like Jon Snow at the Wall, Danny Hurley is gearing up for his own battle in 2021. Next year, the Huskies’ impending return to the Big East coincides with Hurley’s third year at the helm, two converging and reactionary forces that will put the UCONN fan base on the verge of explosion. A revival earns Hurley perpetual equity with the Husky faithful. A flop puts Hurley in their combustible crosshairs.

The first order of business is nursing Akok Akok back to full strength, who just underwent successful surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles. After meticulously managing Alterique Gilbert’s clip-on shoulder for two years, Hurley can’t afford another fragile player in his core nucleus. Before going down, Akok was blossoming into one of the top defenders in all of college basketball, an agile 6’9 forward with Inspector Gadget arms.

On the floor, Hurley is already auditioning his point guard of the future, Jalen Gaffney, alongside the crown jewel of the 2020 recruiting class, James Bouknight. The silky smooth Bouknight has shades of Jeremy Lamb in his game, characterized by a deceptive quickness and an effortless ability to score the basketball. Bouknight was promoted to the starting five a few weeks earlier than Gaffney and is already banging on the door of All-Conference award in his rookie season.

UNLV

Key Projected Returners: Bryce Hamilton, Amauri Hardy, Cheikh Mbacke Diong, Marvin Coleman
Key Projected Departure(s): Elijah Mitrou-Long, Jonah Antonio, Nick Blair
Key Projected Newcomer(s): David Jenkins (South Dakota State transfer; 20 PPG in ‘18-’19), Nick Blake (#126 ranked freshman, per 247 composite rankings), Moses Wood (Tulane transfer)
2020-21 Optimistic Prognosis: NCAA Tournament (7-9 seed), Top-3 MWC finish
Key Swing Factor: David Jenkins

T.J. Otzelberger has been strapped to a violent seesaw in his first season in Vegas, a fitting roller coaster ride for his new digs in America’s Playground. After a four game losing skid dropped the Runnin’ Rebels to 11-13 overall on February 5th, Coach Otz shifted into overdrive. According to Barttorvik.com, only 14 teams in America have been better than UNLV since then, headlined by a jaw-dropping victory over San Diego State on February 22nd. This is the exact springboard the Runnin’ Rebels needed to pick up steam heading into conference tournament time and beyond.

The long-term window is my focus here, as UNLV’s 2020-21 fate largely hinges on the loyalty of a few critical pieces. Bryce Hamilton and Amauri Hardy are established scorers, who Otz hopes to compliment with his former floor general at South Dakota State, David Jenkins. The Rebels are surging behind the the hot hand of Elijah Mitrou-Long right now, but Jenkins, Mitrou-Long’s likely successor, is just as incendiary. Jenkins is unique in that he’s not a stubborn scorer – that is, he doesn’t need to be THE guy each and every night out, as he played second fiddle to Mike Daum for two years at South Dakota State. This type of role casting experience gives me confidence Jenkins will mesh nicely with Hardy and Hamilton in the backcourt – again, assuming both return for one last ride as seniors next year.

Fresno State

Key Projected Returners: Orlando Robinson, Jarred Hyder, Anthony Holland, Mustafa Lawrence, Aguir Agau, Niven Hart
Key Projected Departure(s): New Williams, Nate Grimes, Noah Blackwell
Key Projected Newcomer(s): TBD
2020-21 Optimistic Prognosis: NCAA Tournament (10-12 seed), Top-5 MWC finish
Key Swing Factor: Freshmen-to-Sophomore Development

Forcing Fresno State in this section may seem farfetched but hear me out. The Mountain West Conference could be wide open next season, and there’s few coaches I’d rather bet on emerging from a crowded field than Justin Hutson.

This season has gone haywire due to an endless string of injuries, which has shattered the Bulldogs’ lineup continuity. Nate Grimes, New Williams, Jarred Hyder, Noah Blackwell, Mustafa Lawrence and Aguir Agau, all starters at one point in the season, have each missed multiple games at various times throughout the year, which doesn’t include the recent re-injury to Jordan Campbell (an enticing prospect from Oregon State). In fact, freshman phenom Orlando Robinson is the only player to see action in all 27 games this year, proof of how crowded the training tables have been in Fresno’s locker room.

If the Bulldogs can stay healthy next year, this crop of freshmen has a chance to be special. Robinson is the band’s front man, a fluid 6’10 forward with an advanced toolkit for an 18-year old. He’ll be the epicenter of Fresno’s interior defense next season and spearhead the Bulldogs’ aggressive assault on the offensive glass. On the perimeter, Jarred Hyder will become the head of the snake, a prolific playmaker at the lead guard spot, who’s using this year as a training course for how to conduct an offense. Hyder’s got the takeover chromosome his predecessors Braxton Huggins and Deshon Taylor possessed, to go along with a plus-sized frame at 6’3. Flanking Hyder on the wing will be Anthony Holland, a field goal kicking specialist who’s canned 39% from long distance this year, along with Niven Hart, a burly cold-blooded scorer who’s been en fuego during the month of February.

The graduation cycle will strip Fresno of three program pillars, Nate Grimes, New Williams and Noah Blackwell, but this up-and-coming youth movement has shown flashes of upside that could lift the Bulldogs back to the promise land.

Deep Sleepers…

These are deeper cuts who have a chance to shoot up the charts next season.

George Washington & Duquesne

A great coach and a young nucleus. There’s no better foundation for success than those two elements. Keith Dambrot is further along the trajectory curve than first year head honcho Jamion Christian, but both will bring back key components of their current roster concoction. The Colonials’ perimeter triumvirate of Jameer Nelson Jr., Maceo Jack and Jamison Battle is highly flammable, while the Dukes’ floor general Sincere Carey is wise beyond his years – it’s not often you find “multi-year starter at point guard” etched on a junior’s resume.

Murray State & Austin Peay

Belmont better be looking over its shoulder next year. The Governors and Racers are tired of the Bruins reign atop the OVC. Murray’s Tevin Brown and KJ Williams are a formidable 1-2 punch, while Peay’s Terry Taylor will need another trophy case as he sets out to shatter every OVC record in the book.

Little Rock

Darrell Walker has some lofty standards to uphold. It wasn’t so long ago that Chris Beard led UALR to a 30-win season and appearance in the Round of 32. The school dispatched his successor, hometown hero Wes Flanigan, after two years at the helm, an appropriate reflection of the low tolerance for mediocrity.

Since stepping in for Flanigan, Walker almost seems oblivious to the pressure. He and his trusty sidekick Charles Baker, a renowned international recruiter and data-driven savant, have infused the Trojans will an alluring crop of globally sourced talent. Markquis Nowell and Jaizec Lottie are the ‘domestic dynamos’ (imported from Harlem and Colorado, respectively), while Eastern European natives Marko Lucic, Mikola Maric and Jovan Stulic all traveled a little bit further to get to Arkansas’ capital city.

Not one player in Walker’s current 10-man rotation is a senior. The Sun Belt better get used to this international flair because the Spartans, who are currently on the verge of locking up the Sun Belt regular season title, aren’t going anywhere.

South Dakota State

“Hey Doug, this is Eric Henderson, head coach of South Dakota State, how’s it going?”

“Errrm, fine – you?”

“Not too shabby. Listen man, I’m looking for someone to come in and replace Mike Daum. I know you haven’t played one second of Division I basketball, but what do you think about coming here to fill his shoes?”

“You mean, replace the guy who scored 3,000-points?”

“That’s the one! Well, he was also an All-American honorable mention two years in a row and won Summit Player of the Year three years in a row, but that’s irrelevant. You up for it?!”

“Ummmm, Sure?”

Until I receive the official transcript of the recruiting pitch from the South Dakota State coaching staff to Doug Wilson, I can only assume that’s how the conversation went down. For the record, Wilson never had a reason to doubt himself. The former NJCAA DII Player of the Year’s stat card prior to arriving at South Dakota State suggests he was bored with routinely dominating inferior opponents (he averaged 21 PPG & 9 RPG at Kirkwood Community College). But, even the 5-stars who line up to play at Duke and Kentucky would feel the heat of having to follow in Daum’s mammoth sized footsteps.

Wilson’s wasted no time taking the Summit League by storm, similar to Daum’s coming out party during his freshman campaign. Wilson is posting Player of the Year caliber numbers, while shepherding the young and promising next generation of talent in the Jackrabbit pipeline.

Saint Peter’s

Shaheen Holloway is giving the middle finger to all those who claim depth is overrated. Holloway’s assembled a dangerous 12-man band in Jersey City, a venomous mixture of length and athleticism that’s poisoned every offense in the MAAC this year. Fousseyni and Hassan Drame headline the league’s most heralded recruiting class, while KC Ndefo is a one-man wrecking crew on defense – he currently leads the MAAC in both blocks and steals on a per possession basis.

Winthrop

Poor Randy Peele. Sandwiched in-between Gregg Marshall and Pat Kelsey, Peele’s forgettable five-year tenure looks like a catastrophe by Winthrop’s standards.

Kelsey has risen Rock Hill back to the Marshall glory days, when 20-win seasons were expected, not celebrated. The Eagles have had some great teams over the years, but the 2020-21 version has a chance to go down as one of the best in school history. Before a head-scratching skid over the last two weeks, Winthrop was a fringe top-100 caliber team by most metrics. The Eagles annihilated the Big South field for over a month, a predictable encore after pushing multiple powerhouse programs to the brink in the non-conference segment of the season. Except for Josh Ferguson, the Eagles’ entire 10-man rotation will be reporting for duty next year, a frightening proposition for the rest of the Big South.

Best of the Rest…

Here’s a [lazily assembled] list of teams that were in contention for inclusion above. There are many more omissions, as I’m sure you’ll be quick to point out after you inevitably control-find [insert your team]:

• San Francisco

• Loyola Marymount

• Marshall

• La Salle

• Troy

• Louisiana

• Long Beach State

• Stony Brook

• Stetson

• Bryant

• Alabama A&M