-Matt Cox

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: David Roddy, Jr., Colorado St.
Coach of the Year: Richard Pitino, New Mexico***
Newcomer of the Year: Matt Bradley, Jr., San Diego St.
Freshman of the Year: Keshon Gilbert, UNLV

***Editor’s Note: The Lobos have enormous upside improvement over last year. Even though I’m officially picking UNM 9th, they could easily inch near the top-6, which would put Pitino in decent position to win COTY, assuming a league record at or near .500

Tier 1

1. San Diego State

See full preview here: #32 in our top-40 countdown

2. Colorado State

See full preview here: #40 in our top-40 countdown

3. Nevada

Key Returners: Grant Sherfield, Desmond Cambridge, Warren Washington, Tre Coleman, K.J. Hymes, Daniel Foster
Key Losses: Kane Milling
Key Newcomers: AJ Bramah (Robert Morris), Will Baker (Texas), Kenan Blackshear (Florida Atlantic) 

Lineup:

Outlook: In a year defined by ‘the haves’ and ‘the have nots’, Nevada was stuck in Mountain West no man’s land. Above them sat the league’s top four heavyweights while two other mini groups sat further down the MWC totem pole: we’ll call them the welterweights (Fresno, UNLV, and Wyoming) and the lightweights (San Jose State, Air Force and New Mexico), though the latter hardly put up a fight last season.  

One of those four spots in the upper echelon is now vacant, assuming Utah State takes a step back in the wake of Craig Smith’s departure. As the Aggies transition to a new regime, Steve Alford, and his trusty sidekick Craig ‘Noodles’ Neal, see a golden opportunity to seize an open seat at the MWC big boy table.

All five starters return from last year’s refurbished roster, which ushered in a star-studded backcourt tandem in Grant Sherfield and Desmond Cambridge. Cambridge transformed from a highlight reel enigma to a reliably efficient scorer in the blink of an eye last season, quelling all concerns about his ability to make the leap from the Ivies. Meanwhile, Sherfield went nuclear in his first season out west, finally free of the backcourt logjam at Wichita State.

Sherfield blossomed into one of the elite pick-n-roll operators in college basketball last season. As the offensive engine, Sherfield lifted Nevada to the 8th best pick-n-roll efficiency in the nation, per Synergy’s advanced play type breakdowns. Late in the shot clock, no one’s better at hunting his own shot than Sherfield, especially when the pressure cooker is turned up to 11:

However, as much ink as Sherfield deserves, he’s far from flawless. At times, his affection for hero-ball glory manifests in head scratching shot decisions and he’s still a work in progress in terms of finishing inside – though, his knack for drawing contact often mitigates that. 

While the Pack didn’t engage a full-fledged, Mach-5 fast break last year, they did pick their spots in transition well. Nevada boasted the nation’s 2nd most efficient offense on transition possessions (per Synergy), a function of Sherfield and Cambridge’s wizardry in the open floor.

Part of last year’s pace reduction was a function of Sherfield’s calculated floor game. He loves to slowly read and assess the defense, constantly probing for an open lane or open man. However, a supersized frontline also prompted Alford to ease off the gas pedal ever so slightly.

Historically, Alford’s built his rosters from the “perimeter-in”, placing a premium on prolific guard play with shooters scattered all over the floor. While those elements remain the bedrock of Nevada’s identity, there’s now a supplementary fortress up front. Alford assembled some gargantuan frontlines at UCLA, but the sheer depth and optionality of this unit is tantalizing. The Pack were already ‘big’, per se, evidenced by a 24th national ranking in KenPom’s ‘Average Height’ metric last year – but they got even bigger via the offseason acquisitions of Will Baker and AJ Bramah.

Fortifying the paint with a towering rim protector last season yielded immediate returns. Nevada finished in the upper half of the MWC in 2-point field goal percentage defense, but the mere presence of elite size acted as a scarecrow to any potential rim attackers – per Haslametrics.com, Nevada allowed the 32nd fewest near proximity shots in the nation.

 Warren Washington and KJ Hymes are the notable incumbents responsible, who effectively platooned in a time share last season. Zane Meeks was the primary man in the middle to start, but a wonky knee relegated him to an observer down the stretch, paving the way for Washington and Hymes to emerge. Staying out of foul trouble was a chore for this duo, precisely why deploying them in a tag team fashion was ideal.

Notice the lineup tendencies Alford used late in the year (specifically, the Pack’s last five games). We almost never saw Washington and Hymes together:

Tre Coleman and Daniel Foster are the super glue connectors who enable this lineup optimization, now joined by a third multi-dimensional wing in Kenan Blackshear. Coleman benefitted from Foster’s ailing shoulder in the fall, parlaying his momentum as a reserve into a full time starting role by conference play. Coleman is a dogged defender, who has serious breakout potential as a quintessential ‘3-and-D’ wing – Blackshear and Foster are versatile in their own regard, but Coleman is who I’m circling for a sophomore explosion.

Bottom Line: The hype is warranted in Reno, folks. Sherfield and Cambridge are a premier 1-2 punch on the perimeter, while the frontcourt, an afterthought in 2019, has been reinforced with spider-tac. It’s easy to see why Nevada has been dubbed the MWC darkhorse, armed with enviable inside-out balance and a radiating comet in Sherfield leading the charge. 

4. Boise State

Key Returners: Marcus Shaver, Devonaire Doutrive, Abu Kigab, Emmanuel Akot, Mladen Armus, Max Rice
Key Losses: Derrick Alston, RayJ Dennis
Key Newcomers: RJ Keene 

Lineup:

Outlook: In Mark Pope’s two immaculate seasons at BYU, only three teams have been worthy enough to take down the Cougars in their own building: Gonzaga last year (#1 overall seed), San Diego State in 2020 (would’ve been a #1 seed).

The third member of that esteemed club? You guessed it, these buckin’ Broncs of Boise. 

Leon Rice’s put together quite the run over the last decade up in the land of potatoes. Lacking the investment of other Mountain West foes, Rice still puts the Broncos in the postseason hunt on a near annual basis – and with the recent hiring of a new athletic director, more funding could be in the works…

For now, please wipe last season’s late season skid from your memory banks. A flukey schedule wrinkle put Boise at a significant disadvantage in the regular season finale against Fresno State, allotting only one day off after a bruising back-to-back at San Diego State. A devastating loss ultimately pulled the plug on any NCAA Tournament at-large aspirations.

Boise may have come up short of the goal line, but you better believe they’re coiled and ready to strike in 2022. Father time strips two starters from last year’s mix, notably Derrick Alston, the wiry 6’9 forward with guard-like handles and shot making ability. Alston was a mismatch nightmare but there’s plenty more where that came from still lurking on this roster. 

Former highly lauded prospects Abu Kigab and Emmanuel Akot will take centerstage after enjoying subtle breakout campaigns last season. Turns out Rice was smart to scoop up Oregon (Kigab) and Arizona’s (Akot) scraps. Loaded depth charts at their prior destinations kept Kigab and Akot from actualizing their top-100 pedigree potential but both are clicking on all cylinders now.

However, both may wind up playing 2nd and 3rd fiddle to Marcus Shaver, who’s on the precipice of a monster season. Rice made a point to single out Shaver not once but twice in an early offseason primer from the Idaho Press, insinuating that he’ll assume a more assertive role in this year’s offense:

“I want to put the ball in his hands more because he’s dynamic,” Rice said. “He’s a great scorer.”

He later added…

“The guys look great — they have a good bounce to them,” Rice said. “They got a little time off in the spring. Emmanuel is looking the most athletic he’s looked and his legs feel better. Shaver looks amazing.”

After Boise dropped three straight games to close out the regular season, Rice slotted Devonaire Doutrive, along with fellow Arizona defector Akot, into the starting-5 to shake things up (a decision made easier after the sharpshooting Max Rice broke his foot). In Boise’s MWC Tournament opening round loss and two subsequent NIT games, Doutrive flourished in a starter’s role, posting three straight efficient efforts while clocking 30+ minutes a night. With Doutrive, talent was always a given. Consistency is the wagging tail that’s starting to follow in line.

Talent and pedigree aside, shooting and shot making question marks are valid reasons for skepticism in the wake of Alston’s graduation. But even if the Broncos struggle to find their range in 2022, they still have a stymying defense to fall back on, the ultimate ace up the sleeve.

Boise’s premier crop of size and speed scattered across all five positions shell shocked most of their opponents last year. Against a downy soft opening part of the conference schedule, the Broncos looked like the Bad Boy Pistons, swallowing up the likes of New Mexico, San Jose State, Air Force and Wyoming with little resistance. 

But, against the MWC’s heavy hitters, some cracks began to shine through…

“I think our defense has definitely taken a little step back,” said Alston after Boise’s third loss in four games on February 7th. “Really for me, I feel like really since the BYU game we’ve kind of taken a step back defensively.”

I’ll give Rice and company the benefit of the doubt, especially in last year’s whirlwind of weirdness. Still, the late season defensive malfunctions showed there’s still some work to be done on that end of the floor.

Mladen Armus oozes that nasty streak you want in your interior enforcer but the 6’10 Serb is more of a ground bound big, rather than an elastic leaper. In theory, Boise’s first line of defense should be hard enough to penetrate as is – Doutrive, Kigab and Akot’s length jumps off the television. But when the Broncs squared off against athletes in their weight class, Armus didn’t scare off oncoming drivers and rim attackers. Per Synergy, opponents converted 61% of their shots at the rim last season, which ranked just inside the bottom-100 nationally. By no means is this a glaring eye sore but it’s a blemish worth calling attention to.

Bottom Line: In the face of Alston and Dennis’ departures, stabilizing the rotation could be the mitigating antidote to any slippage in 2022. Doutrive was idle first semester, Akot and Shaver each missed three games in the non-conference, while Rice and Kigab were shut down for the postseason period. Staying healthy will be paramount for this nucleus, as the Broncos’ bench doesn’t run that deep (barring a monster rookie campaign from 3-star freshman R.J. Keene).

Tier 2 

5. UNLV

Key Returners: Bryce Hamilton, Marvin Coleman
Key Losses: David Jenkins, Caleb Grill, Cheikh Mbacke Diong, Moses Wood
Key Newcomers: Jordan McCabe (West Virginia), Mike Nuga (Kent State), Victor Iwuakor (Oklahoma), Royce Hamm (Texas), Justin Webster (Hawaii), Donovan Williams (Texas), David Muoka (Lamar), James Hampshire (Pacific), Josh Baker (JUCO), Keshon Gilbert

Lineup:

Outlook: T.J. Otzelberger searched far and wide for that elusive oasis of success in the desert. There were brief moments of glory during a short-lived tenure as the UNLV program director. But, like nearly all Jerry Tarkanian successors, it was mission failed for Otz. 

All it takes is a quick scan through the UNLV basketball WikiPedia page to find the outlier success story of all the recent Vegas coaching experiments gone wrong. Sandwiched in between a slew of flameouts (see Bill Bayno and Dave Rice, among others), you’ll find Lon Kruger, the shining star of the post-Tark era.

To rekindle that flame of glory, UNLV is going back to the Kruger bloodline. Lon’s son, Kevin Kruger, will now take the reins in hopes of course correcting a program yearning for optimism. 

Even though baby Kruger spent the last two years under Otzelberger’s watch, he wasted no time this summer tearing the roster to shreds and restocking it with a herd of newcomers. This transfer invasion should help Kruger expedite the rebuild, which is comprised of all upperclassmen, save local rookie product Keshon Gilbert. Unlike most rookies, Gilbert hangs his hat on the defensive end, an endearing trait that glistened throughout his last year in high school. The Las Vegas Sun did an extensive breakdown of Gilbert’s prognosis, which gushes about this defensive potential, aided by a long 6’4 frame.

Gilbert’s offensive expectations will be tamed by the arrival of Justin Webster and Mike Nuga, two deadeye marksmen with big time scoring profiles. Lesser known JUCO standout Josh Baker is cut from the same cloth as Webster and Nuga, coming off a year in which he shot 42% from bonus land at Hutchinson Community College. West Virginia import Jordan McCabe was a glorified ‘game manager’ at West Virginia, who got recruited over in the gauntlet that is the Big-12. He’s a prototypical pass-first floor general and odds on favorite to slide into the starting point guard stead – but, that’s contingent on how Kruger utilizes Bryce Hamilton, one of the most polarizing conundrums in college basketball. 

Outside of Marvin Coleman, Hamilton is the sole leftover from the Otz’ era. Hamilton’s ‘A-game’ is scary good, but erratic shot selection has routinely marred his consistency and efficiency. The following shot chart from ShotQuality encapsulates Hamilton’s deficiencies in a nutshell:

The only shot he excels at, on a relative basis, is the long mid range pull up, which remains one of the least efficient shots in basketball. In short, he makes life harder on himself than he has to. Can Kruger recalibrate his attack philosophy? Only time will tell…

 Another insightful offseason report from the Las Vegas Sun shed light on Kruger’s broader approach in recruiting and player targeting:

“When we were constructing the roster we were just looking for a bunch of guys that can dribble, pass and shoot and make plays for each other and attack advantages,” Kruger said. “Just in terms of dribbling the ball across halfcourt, I think we’ve got plenty of guys who can do that. But what I think they can all do together is have an ability to play in the pick-and-roll and attack advantages and get downhill and create advantages and opportunities for somebody else. That’s going to be our main pillar offensively going forward. We want everything to flow together and play together. In our mind, those traditional positions, especially the 2, 3, and 4, we want to be able to use those interchangeably."

Notice the word ‘advantages’ appears thrice in that quote from Kevin. Reading between the lines, he appears to be hinting at an emphasis on attacking mismatches, a staple of Lon’s decorated coaching career. The apple doesn’t fall too far from the tree, folks.

The rest of the newcomers fit into that interchangeable multi-positional mold, which should translate immediately to the defensive side of the ball. With Victor Iwuakor (Oklahoma), Texas twofer Royce Hamm and Donovan Williams and human fly swatter David Muoka (Lamar), the wing and frontline corps underwent a major upgrade this offseason. 

Bottom Line: Deciphering how all these new faces will mesh in Kruger’s first season is complete guesswork, especially next to a high-usage alpha like Hamilton. That’s where my year one concerns lie. Kruger’s utopian vision sounds all hunky-dory in the long run but the current roster, while talented, looks like an island of misfit toys. Looking into the crystal ball, don’t be shocked to see some offensive turbulence, at least in the early going, which is why the Rebels fall just outside that illustrious Tier 1 group. 

6. Utah State

Key Returners: Brock Miller, Justin Bean, Steven Ashworth
Key Losses: Neemias Queta, Rollie Worster, Marco Anthony
Key Newcomers: R.J. Eytle-Rock (UMBC), Brandon Horvath (UMBC), Rylan Jones (Utah)

Lineup: 

Outlook: From genius to genius, Utah State knows how to pick ‘em. The Aggies replaced one savant with another, luring Ryan Odom away from the east coast to replace Craig Smith at the helm. Smith, for my money, is one of the best tactical gurus in the college game, and his impact at Utah State was both immediate and considerable. Odom’s got big shoes to fill, no doubt, but he’s got the intellectual horsepower to keep Utah State from slipping too far down the MWC ladder.

Odom’s embracement of advanced analytics makes it easy for a nerd, such as me, to sing his praises from the rooftops. His fame may have been born out of UMBC’s 16-over-1 trashing of Virginia but his sustained success in the America East earned him the job. He’s an information hog, possessing an uncanny feel for applying the numbers to the proper situations. Not even a year into his tenure at Utah State, he’s already doubling down on the data.

As reported in the Utah Statesman, Odom proved his commitment to analytics when he announced the final piece of his staff– Noah Ralby– would be the director of analytics. The director of analytics may not be a familiar title, but that’s because Odom’s staff is the first and only team in the state and conference to have a position like it.

“It’s huge,” Odom said of analytics. “It’s here, alright. We’re not getting away from it. How you use it is extremely important… I’m not going to totally sell out to the numbers, but the numbers tell a lot of the story.”

Playing shrewd, analytically informed basketball will move the needle but this is still basketball, a game played on hardwood floors, not in a computer simulation. As Odom steps up in competition, the personnel standards must rise with it. Talent usually trumps all, an area where Odom will have to keep up with the Joneses long term. For the short-term, though, he walks into a favorable situation, which should help fast track his program development. 

He inherits three indispensable cogs from last year’s core, Steven Ashworth, Brock Miller and my guy Justin Bean, all three cerebral players who will assimilate seamlessly into Odom’s system. Ashworth played second fiddle to fellow rookie standout Rollie Worster a year ago, who followed Smith to Salt Lake City upon accepting the Utah promotion. Though he was predominantly pigeonholed into a backup point guard role, Ashworth’s skill set makes him malleable perimeter piece.With Utah import Rylan Jones joining the fold, Ashworth may slide off the ball more frequently this year, where his shooting prowess will be on full display.

Jones was the toast of the town back in 2019, when he engineered an improbable win over Kentucky just 11 games into his collegiate career. The hometown kid is back in Logan, hoping to re-write an unfinished script after a disappointing encore sophomore season. RJ Eytle-Rock will also have a chip on his shoulder, who follows Odom from UMBC, out to prove whether or not his swiss-army knife value can hold up against stiffer competition.

Miller and Bean, on the other hand, are known commodities with little else to prove on the collegiate circuit. In a role player draft, Miller and Bean would be first off the board for teams in need of a high-motor, rebounding machine (Bean) and a mistake-free, wing sniper (Miller) but they’ll need to be the aggressors on offense to backfill a serious scoring void from last year.

For Odom, the more pressing concern is retooling a defense that was a steel curtain last year. Neemias Queta was a destroyer of worlds in the middle while guys like Marco Anthony and Alphonso Anderson were underappreciated stoppers on the wing. Still, the not-so-secret sauce of last year’s defensive dominance was an abundance of length and size spread across all five positions.

Last year, the Retrievers boasted the nation’s 11th best 2-point field goal percentage defense but ranked in the bottom-20 in block rate. Hoop nerds need no explanation for why that’s an odd chasm. Blocks and keeping opponents from scoring at a high clip inside the arc are highly correlated, but this is a testament to UMBC’s harmonious synchronicity on defense. 

Depending on how Odom prioritizes the rotations this year, he might have to make do with a shorter frontline, which isn’t particularly athletic either. Odom brings Brandon Horvath with him from UMBC, who isn’t an intimidating rim protector by any stretch, but what he lacks in vertical explosion he makes up for in lateral agility. Last year, two sturdy enforcers (Daniel Akin and Dimitrije Spasojevic) aided Horvath in his paint patrolling duties, so look for Trevin Dorius, Sean Bairstow and Szymon Zapala, three remnants from last year’s core, to bolster the interior size and physicality.

Bottom Line: At first glance, the roster looks like a compilation of mid-major caliber talent, a notch below what the upper echelon MWC teams will trot out on a nightly basis. Still, Odom, like Smith, is the ultimate ‘do more with less’ coach, which is why we have the Aggies sneaking inside the top-6 in the league. Doubt this team at your own peril – or be prepared to get a burrito in your face, served up by the ‘Dean of Bean’ himself:

 7. Fresno State

Key Returners: Orlando Robinson, Isaiah Hill, Deon Stroud, Anthony Holland, Junior Ballard, Jordan Campbell
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Jemarl Baker (Arizona) 

Lineup: 

Outlook: Ushering in 10 new players in a COVID constricted offseason? Yeah, the San Joaquin Valley Bulldogs never had a chance last year…

Alongside Wyoming and UNLV, Fresno was trapped in the MWC’s black hole of mediocrity. They finished a combined 1-7 against San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State and Colorado State but padded their record with six victories over doormats Air Force, San Jose State and New Mexico. Add it all up and that’s how you go 12-12, folks.

As a devout believer in Justin Hutson, I was keenly tuned into what appeared to be a subtle turnaround during last year’s stretch run. After getting blasted by San Diego State on their home floor, twice, Fresno finished 3-3, which included a one-point loss at UNLV and a six-point loss to Utah State. They outpaced the oddsmakers’ expectations in five of those contests, closing out the year with a commendable 5-1 against-the-spread record. That may mean nothing to non-bettors out there, but ATS performance is always a great barometer for measuring performance relative to expectations – and for the final two weeks of the season, Fresno exceeded them. 

Injuries and COVID interruptions popped up like moles for the first half of the year, halting any progress of developing on floor chemistry. During this trial-and-error period, Hutson piloted eight different starting lineup combinations over the first two months of the season. It wasn’t until late January when Hutson finally nailed down a consistent starting-5 – Isaiah Hill, Deon Stroud, Anthony Holland, Junior Ballard and Orlando Robinson – who started the final 11 games of the season. 

The gains from this late season lineup continuity should carry over to 2022, as Fresno brings back 90% of last year’s minutes (per Bartorvik). It all begins with Robinson, the Bulldogs’ command center in the middle. Over the last two seasons, he’s slowly become the focal point of the offense, evidenced by the corresponding evolution in Hutson’s offensive design. Last season, only 19 teams in America played through the post more frequently, according to Synergy’s advanced play type data.

Unfortunately, Robinson’s efficiency regressed last year as a sophomore, an unsettling encore to a stellar rookie campaign. Predictably, Robinson became a marked man on the scouting report, as opposing teams collapsed any time he touched the ball inside. The Bulldog backcourt didn’t do Robinson any favors in this regard. Of all the frequent flyers in last year’s rotation, only Hill managed to keep his 3PT% above 35%. Without proven shooting threats dotting the arc, it was a no-brainer for opposing defenses to park the bus inside the arc.

When it comes to assessing Fresno’s perimeter foursome – Hill, Stroud, Holland and Ballard – one word comes to mind: enigmatic. Hill and Stroud are the co-pilots, who handle the bulk of the initiation, while Ballard and Holland are lesser used ‘passengers’, content to pick their spots as they arise. The problem was that this group, in unison, looked like a disjointed cobblestone road. Pardon my excuse leniency but COVID was the real culprit in this regard. Hill, Stroud and Ballard, all in their first years in the program, had no time to gel as perimeter cohorts. The result was a ‘my turn, your turn’ offense, which lacked any sort of cohesion.

I’m cautiously optimistic a full offseason together will remedy these warts. Ballard was a trigger-happy scorer at Cal Poly but slowly drifted into a glorified floor spacer last season. Holland, on the other hand, seems fat and happy in his passive role. He’s little more than a ball mover on offense but his size and speed enable him to check forwards in Fresno’s 4-out, 1-in lineup concoction.

Stroud is the most talented of the bunch, who tested the NBA waters this summer, looking to parlay last year’s scintillating finish into a well-earned pay day. Ignoring that goose egg he laid against Utah State (did someone say enigmatic?), Stroud finished in double figures in six of Frenso’s last seven games. If he can supplement his alien hops (see below) with a reliable shooting stroke, Stroud will be an All Conference card carrying member by season’s end:

Jordan Campbell was relegated to the backburner last season, a big, bodied power guard who embodies the ‘feast-or-famine’ frustration with this roster – though, last year it was mostly famine. Campbell dominated the dregs of the MWC but was promptly put in his place by longer, more athletic defenders. 

A breath of fresh air comes in the form of Jemarl Baker, who could be the antidote to this perimeter instability. The former Arizona sharpshooter is a measured combo guard who, despite his gaudy recruiting pedigree, rarely forces the action. Perhaps this mindset and approach will be contagious for the rest of the Bulldog backcourt.

Hutson’s reputation as a defensive mastermind has lost some luster the last two seasons. This year, there’s little wiggle room for the excuse card. Along with Baker, Campbell, Stroud and Hill are all jet-quick in space and Robinson moves ably for his size. That’s a dangerous starter kit for swarming ball pressure, a tactic we’ve seen Hutson deploy in year’s past. Also, positive regression forces should work in Fresno’s favor – MWC opponents made 76% from the foul line and 36% from long distance against the Bulldogs, which ranked best and 3rd best in the league, respectively.

Bottom Line: In the wake of two straight underwhelming campaigns, it’s ‘put up or shut up time’ for Hutson. I can’t help but reflect fondly on his inaugural season back in 2019, but, in hindsight, perhaps that was skewed by the star power of two game breaking guards (Braxton Huggins and DeShon Taylor). Since then, Hutson’s rotation has been a revolving turnstile of imports and exports, ruining any semblance of continuity and growth. Now, he gets a shot at redemption with the same cast of characters as last year, boosted by a monster transfer pick up in Baker. Don’t let me down, Justin. 

8. Wyoming

Key Returners: Xavier DuSell, Kenny Foster, Hunter Maldonado, Graham Ike, Hunter Thompson, Drake Jeffries
Key Losses: Marcus Williams
Key Newcomers: Deng Dut (JUCO), Brendan Wenzel (Utah), Nate Barnhart 

Lineup:

Outlook: Whenever they make “Moneyball 2: College Basketball’s Revenge”, I wonder who will play Jeff Linder. Few coaches embrace cutting-edge analytics as openly as Linder, whose data-driven tactics have the Pokes jockeying for a rise in the MWC pecking order in 2022. 

Linder’s entire philosophy revolves around the 3-point line. To the analytically challenged, this sounds risky. To the analytically enlightened, this is simple math. Last time I checked 3 is greater than 2. The Pokes’ offense is geared to make as many of those bonus balls as possible while the defense is geared to eliminate those opportunities entirely. 49% of the Cowboys’ shots last year were from long distance, the 9th highest rate in America, a stark contrast to their opponent’s three-point attempt rate (31%).

The impetus to this bevy of long balls is largely system driven but the personnel matters, too. Shooters are a mandatory ingredient, obviously, but a dynamic creator and table setter is equally important. This is where JUCO All American Deng Dut and freshman Noah Reynolds face a tall order in backfilling Marcus Williams, the Pokes' 2020 maestro.

In Linder's perimeter-oriented attack, a multi-threat lead guard is paramount, partially why I flirted with anointing Dut our Newcomer of the Year. Hailing from the land down under, Dut’s dominance on the JUCO circuit certifies him as a readymade MWC caliber player, who will have ample opportunities to flourish in Linder’s playground. At the College of Southern Idaho, Dut was a first team NJCAA All-American, headlined by a blistering 48% hit rate from downtown (which ranked 6th among all NJCAA D-I qualifiers):

Unfortunately, Linder told Jeff Greer of Blue Ribbon that Dut suffered an injury early this summer, which could delay his much-anticipated debut. Reynolds, who was slated to come out of the bullpen, could be thrown right to the wolves. Xavier DuSell, Kenny Foster and Drake Jeffries return as one of the MWC’s top sharpshooting trios on the wing, but they were buoyed by Williams’ pristine passing. Again, this is where a dynamic playmaker of Dut’s caliber is mission critical for this Pokes’ offense to reach top gear. 

Tying it all together is 6’7 swingman Hunter Maldonado, who will aid in the shot creation dilemma. The 4-year Wyoming veteran has paid his dues and then some. Maldonado clocked the 2nd most minutes in the MWC last season, a year removed from leading the league in minutes in 2020. The crafty wing doubles as a complementary table setter in Linder’s offense. At 6’7, he’s blessed with great vision and a tight handle. 

In summation, Wyoming’s offense is like Linder’s Ferrari sports car. The individual parts are hand-picked and meticulously managed to optimize efficiency at nearly any cost – but, in last year’s case, there was a steep price to pay defensively…

Coined ‘Lopsided Lovelies’ by my colleague Ky, the Pokes were one of the most one-sided teams in college basketball last season. While the offense was lighting up the scoreboard, the defense was dead weight, preventing the Pokes from competing with the Mountain West’s cream of the crop. Linder tinkered with multiple lineup combinations up front to try and strike the proper balance on both ends of the floor. Finally, he found the missing ingredient…

The ‘A Ha’ moment came in early February when Linder swapped out inverse forward Hunter Thompson for Graham Ike in the starting rotation. Thompson still played major minutes – his knockdown shooting ability was too valuable to keep off the floor – but it was Ike who proved to be the missing link defensively after an ACL tear postponed the rookie’s debut.

By mid-season, it was clear the paper-thin Cowboy frontline sorely needed an infusion of strength and physicality. Thompson could hold his own at times but what Ike possesses simply can’t be taught: a 7-6 wingspan wrapped around a sturdy 250-pound frame. 

BartTorvik’s handy dandy time capsule tool allows us to isolate offensive and defensive performance by team for a specific stretch of the season. The chart below shows the efficiency metrics of all 11 MWC teams from January 20th onward, coinciding with Ike’s return to the lineup:

While the Pokes still trailed Boise, Utah State, San Diego State and Nevada, the gap was narrowed substantially with Ike roaming the paint. He’s still in the fetal stages of his development but a meteoric rise may be imminent. 

Bottom Line: As much as I adore Linder’s ‘data ball’ ingenuity, that alone will only elevate the Pokes so far. Considerable size and speed disadvantages remain, which was exposed in Wyoming’s mid-January back-to-back series with Boise State. The Broncos drove the ball at will through and around the undermanned Pokes and dominated the restricted area with little resistance. In a league that’s increasingly stacking the deck with more talent and better athletes, a back stop like Ike could be the ultimate neutralizer. On the perimeter, Dut’s injury worries me as well, but Maldonado can masquerade as a point forward in his place until Dut’s cleared for takeoff. 

9. New Mexico

Key Returners: Saquan Singleton, Valdir Manuel, Jeremiah Francis
Key Losses: Makuach Maluach, Rod Brown
Key Newcomers: Jaelen House (Arizona State), Jamal Mashburn (Minnesota), Taryn Todd (TCU), Gethro Muscadin (Kansas), K.J. Jenkins (JUCO), Jay Allen-Tovar (JUCO) 

Lineup: 

Outlook: As a full-time college basketball handicapper, tracking over 350 teams on daily basis is a labor of love. Some squads are a treat to follow week in and week out. Others are just sort of there, devoid of anything truly newsworthy over the course of the season.

Then, there’s a select few who are downright depressing, stemming from chronic losing, serious injuries or some combination of the two. 

THEN, there’s the 2020-21 New Mexico Lobos, worthy of a separate classifier unlike anything we’ve seen before.

Losing and injuries were just the tip of the iceberg of New Mexico’s season long nightmare, which nearly culminated in a full blown surrender. A series of unfortunate events doesn’t do it justice.

Rather than relive the horrors, let’s turn our eyes to the road ahead. Richard Pitino comes from Gopher land to clean up the pigsty left behind by Paul Wier – and oh what a mess it is… 

There are pockets of hope for a competitive turnaround in Pitino’s first season in the Pit but the rabid Lobo fan base must be patient. The current roster hosts a slew of wings and forwards whose physical tools far exceed their actual skill. By default, Saquan Singleton is the first incumbent name worth mentioning, a full-time starter on last year’s trainwreck. Singleton’s a captivating player prototype, standing 6’6 with a smooth handle and heady vision but he’s the epitome of a ‘non-shooter’. Despite camping out at the free throw line last year, Singleton posted a gruesome 86 O-Rating, ruined by a 51% conversion rate from the charity stripe.

Valdir Manuel is also deprived of a jump shot but the rangy 6’10 forward did a bang-up job as an interior guardian. Both Manuel and Emmanuel Kuac dealt with their fair share of injury rust last year so a rejuvenated bill of health could only help. Javonte Johnson and Jeremiah Francis both broke late, saving their best performances for the when the season was already dead and buried – could they ride that wave into a bounce back 2022 campaign?

Pitino will give those returners a fair shake to cement their spot in the rotation but look for the new kids on the block to carry the freight, specifically Jamal Mashburn and Jaelen House. House will be one of the few upperclassmen in the Lobo backcourt, as Pitino will count on the lightning quick guard to assume a leadership role, on and off the floor. Mashburn was Pitino’s pet project at Minnesota, whose a beacon of hope on this talent deprived roster – he should put up monster numbers as the Lobos’ go-to-guy.

The sheer size of the Big-10 bothered the young Mashburn as a rookie but his feel for the game is wise beyond his years, a true sign of a coach or player’s son:

The idea of a House / Mashburn backcourt pairing is a refreshing change up, but neither was all that efficient at their prior stop, and both were protected in relatively low usage roles. Sure, youth and inexperience are valid defenses but being asked to step into the cockpit and run a team is a big promotion from where they stood last year – hence, my concerns about their readiness to lift New Mexico out of the depths of despair. But, while you can point fingers at House and Mashburn’s ghastly shooting percentages last year, their passing ability is undeniable. 

KJ Jenkins will be licking his chops to play with House and Mash, an elite shooter from the JUCO ranks (Jenkins shot 47% from behind the stripe at Kilgore CC last year). Pitino was adamant about restocking the shooting supply over the summer, which bodes well for Jenkins in his first Division-I season:

“I would love five guys, even my number five-ma,n to be able to knock down the three,” Pitino told Fox Albuquerque. “It’s such an important part of the game. I mean, I talked to Mike Bradbury, you know, over on the women’s side, on just the way they shoot the three. It’s such a huge part of it. So, whoever we bring in, you have to help the program win.”

Behind House, Mashburn and Jenkins, the newcomer undercard could offer hope. Taryn Todd (TCU) was a star in Canada, while Gethro Muscadin (Kansas) was dominant in high school, and both should find their footing against lighter competition in a change of scenery.

Bottom Line: There were plenty of bad apples poisoned by last year’s quirky COVID season, but New Mexico was hit by a tidal wave. Intense COVID restrictions forced them to play and practice remote for the entire season, making the typical grind of a losing season THAT much more depressing. The Lobos should be one of the most improved teams in the league, if not solely for the fact that last year’s dreadful finish will have no bearing on the 2022 prognosis.

Tier 3 

10. San Jose State

Key Returners: Sebastian Mendoza, Omari Moore, Trey Smith, Richard Washington**
Key Losses: Richard Washington, Seneca Knight
Key Newcomers: Trey Anderson (South Carolina), Shon Robinson (Mississippi), Ibrahima Diallo (Ohio State), Josh O'Garro (Oklahoma), Tibet Gorener (Arizona), Majok Kuath (JUCO), Harminder Dhaliwal (JUCO), Alvaro Cardenas Torre

**NOTE: Richard Washington is reportedly awaiting clearance on a waiver that would grant him an additional year of eligibility. As of October 1st, he was not on the official school roster

Lineup:

Outlook: *BREAKING NEWS* 

For the first time in 3MW’s near decade long existence, we are officially excited to write a San Jose State preview!

Ok relax, Matt. Let’s settle on somewhat excited.

Jean Prioleau, it’s not your fault, man. We just love us some Timmy Miles!

Hiring Miles is a monumental move for the cash strapped San Jose State athletic department, regarded as one of the biggest ‘penny pinchers’ in all of college basketball, as appropriately labeled by my colleague Jim in his 2020 breakdown of college basketball program budgets. As of last April, SJSU was spending nearly 50% less than its average MWC counterpart, a canyon sized chasm between peers in the same conference. Talk about bringing a knife to a gunfight… 

Some first-year head coaches might opt to downplay expectations, at least out of the gate, but that’s not Miles’ style. The man has no shortage of confidence:

“We’ll collect enough talent to be competitive in the Mountain West and not be a bottom third team at least in year one.”

Shoutout to the folks at Mountain West Connection, who dug into Miles’ stylistic treasure chest this summer, offering us a clear vision as to what to expect from the Spartans in year 1 (and beyond). Below are two succinct excerpts from that interview, which sum up his offensive and defensive blueprints in a nutshell: 

• Offense:

  • “Being three-point heavy with more attempts than ever, I’d like to think our game is more than just defending the three’s and making the three’s, but those are critical, critical environments.”

• Defense:

  • “It could be a lot of man defense and one that doesn’t have to foul a tremendous amount but can get people off the three-point line. One of my main concerns is to also have the length to protect the rim, because if we’re going to chase teams off the line, they’re going next to the rim. And if we don’t have anybody there, well, let’s just say, we don’t need to give up a lot of layups. So basically, how we protect that rim is really critical too, and there’s a lot of ways to do it.”

There’s a lot to unpack in that defensive blurb but it’s abundantly clear that Miles will place a premium on the 3-ball.

The roster was under serious construction early this summer, but the dust appears to have finally settled. The only domino left to fall is Richard Washington, who is appealing for an extra year of eligibility. From a talent perspective, Washington was head and shoulders above any other SJSU player last year. He was a one-man-show at times, hamstrung by a watered-down supporting cast which forced him to, well, force the action just to keep SJSU competitive.

However, it’s tough to reconcile Washington’s perceived value as the Spartans’ only capable scoring threat with the fact that SJSU’s three-game winning streak in late January just so happened when Washington was out of the lineup. Granted, those wins were over New Mexico and Air Force (twice), so tread lightly before extrapolating too much from that coincidence.

As for the rest of the roster, there’s not a lot to love here. Miles will lean heavily on lackluster holdovers and B-caliber down transfers, most of whom never got their bite at the apple at their prior destinations:

•  Trey Anderson is the most experienced of the D-I transfers, who should hit the ground running from Day 1. He hails from the esteemed Woodstock prep factory on the east coast, where he blossomed into a highly 3-star prospect. Minutes were hard to come by at South Carolina, but he’ll be at the forefront of SJSU’s attack in 2022.

• Ole Miss import Shon Robinson says, ‘hold my beer, Trey’. Robinson, another lauded recruit coming out of high school, etched his name on the ESPN top-100 recruiting rankings before taking his talents to Ole Miss a year ago. Again, he was buried behind a stable of bigs and simply got recruited over.

• Josh O’Garro was a top-200 prospect coming out of high school, who spent last year at Oklahoma in the redshirt tag. After reclassifying up a year in high school, O’Garro is effectively a freshman with a year of Division-I experience. While that experience was limited to practices, studying under Lon Kruger for a full season is certainly worth its weight in gold

• Ibrahima Diallo hails from THE Ohio State University. Diallo looks like a project on paper but Miles insists that he will be at the epicenter of SJSU’s revamped defense, touted for his imposing presence up front.

• Majok Kuath, brother of former OU destroyer Kur Kuath, was a productive asset on a strong JUCO program last year (Hutchinson CC). Like Diallo, he’ll serve as another rim protector defensively and rim runner offensively.

• Tibet Gorener, brings an international flair to the mix, a hyper skilled wing from Turkey who rarely saw the floor at Arizona. After averaging 10 points a game for Turkey’s U19 team, Gorener could be the diamond in the rough of this deep newcomer class:

Brandon Knapper’s name was initially penciled in that bulleted list but he ultimately ended up at Cal St. Bernardino. Despite Knapper’s volatility, he would’ve infused some juice at the point guard position, a spot that remains a major question mark heading into Miles’ first season. Omari Moore was the quasi-initiator last season but keep an eye on Spanish floor general Alvaro Cardenas Torre. Miles insists he needs time to cook but he’s one of the only pure point guards on the roster. Trey Smith and Caleb Simmons are the other notable returners, both of whom are better positioned off the ball.

Bottom Line: There’s a resounding theme with Miles’ last second roster assembly strategy. Forced to scramble at the last minute, Miles effectively took swings on a multitude of high risk, high reward prospects. Many may not pan out but he’s betting a few will stick, which is all he needs to get the ball rolling. In terms of predicting which specific newcomers will ultimately stick, your guess is as good as mine.

Miles will have to unleash his most powerful coaching sorcery to lift the Spartans out of the gutter in year 1. The good news? Historically, Miles’ best work with the clipboard has been when the odds are stacked against him.

11. Air Force

Key Returners: A.J. Walker
Key Losses: Christopher Joyce, Ameka Akaya, Keaton Van Soelen
Key Newcomers: TBD 

Lineup:

Outlook: Below, we present a 3MW All-Access exclusive presentation: “Making the Coach: Joe Scott, Part 2”

15 years after taking Air Force to the promise land, Scott finally awoke from a decade and a half long hibernation. Before entering the cryogenic chamber, Scott’s vintage bag of tricks – the Princeton offense and the Amoeba zone defense – worked like a charm. Wits won the day, at least back in Scott’s heyday. 

The times, they are a changin’.

Scott was rudely awakened by a new age of Mountain West basketball in his return to the coaching ring last year. When did San Diego State become a national power? When did Utah State and Boise State boast pro-level size and freak athletes?

All in all, Scott’s return to Colorado Springs was not the homecoming he hoped for – though, the COVID asterisk warrants a mulligan for Scott and his staff. A shell of a practice schedule prevented him from forming integral bonds with his players and a robust understanding of his nuanced style. That said, there are deeper seeded issues Scott must dig up and cleanse if he wants to resurrect the program he once elevated to national relevance.

First off, defense. The Falcons’ zone was in shambles, as opposing offenses carved it up at will from all different angles. The only redeeming quality is that it generated a relatively high turnover rate, an impressive feat given the Air Troops’ lack of foot speed. However, even the well timed gambles for steals can’t mitigate the 7-8 possessions a game that look like this:

The extended nature of the zone compounds Air Force’s interior soft spots, which leaves an unattended red carpet rolled right to the rim. 

Offensively, Scott’s approach didn’t deviate all that far from Pilipovich, at least in terms of the shots it produced:

Thank goodness for AJ Walker. Without him, the Falcons may have been historically bad last season. He led the entire conference in minutes played last year, a testament to his indispensable value on this team. No one else on the roster can create for himself or for others, not to mention the glaring lack of sound ball handlers behind him. Per hooplens.com, Air Force turned it over on 33% of their possessions with Walker off the floor – in other words, the MWC sharks smelled blood in the water whenever Walker took a breather. 

Nikc Jackson is the other intriguing pillar returning, a lean 6’8 tweener forward with a nice offensive repertoire. The problem was, opponents put a target on his back defensively and Jackson was hung out to dry. He committed 7.1 fouls per 40 minutes in conference games, which explains why he only averaged 22 minutes a game in MWC action. The southpaw is in desperate need of frontline support, but outside of CJ Haut, no one else stands taller than 6’7.

Bottom Line: “It’s almost like last year was a lost year. I’m viewing [this season] like it’s year one.”

That’s what Scott told Blue Ribbon this summer, a confirmation that last season was a complete throw away. The question is, how much of those warts will carry into the *real* year 1 in 2022. If not for Walker, the Falcons would be in serious jeopardy of hanging a goose egg in the MWC win column this season.