-Jim Root

Preseason Predictions

Player of the Year: A.J. Green, Jr., Northern Iowa
Coach of the Year: Porter Moser, Loyola-Chicago
Newcomer of the Year: Demarcus Sharp, Jr., Missouri State
Freshman of the Year: Dalton Banks, Southern Illinois

Tier 1

1. Loyola-Chicago

Key Returners: Cameron Krutwig, Keith Clemons, Tate Hall, Lucas Williamson, Marquise Kennedy, Aher Uguak, Cooper Kaifes (injury)
Key Losses: N/A
Key Newcomers: Braden Norris (Oakland), Baylor Hebb, Damezi Anderson (Indiana)***

*** - needs a waiver to play right away

Lineup:

Outlook: After raising the ceiling of what’s possible in Rogers Park in 2018, Porter Moser now has his best and deepest team since that city-shaking run to the Final Four, returning everyone of substance from a team that finished second in the MVC. Expectations will inevitably (and justifiably) rise, and the Ramblers have a towering in-conference villain in UNI, but Loyola has the pieces necessary to sneak back into the national spotlight.

It all starts with Player of the Year candidate Cameron Krutwig, an immensely talented (and just immense) lefty big man who bends defenses with his varied skillset. Still around after playing a key role on that Final Four team, Krutwig’s tremendous array of drop steps, spin moves, and half hooks coupled with his clever use of his body make him nearly impossible to guard one-on-one in the post. That leads to opponents trying to throw multiple looks at him: double-teams, zones, constant digging from guards. He’s figured out how to beat all of these looks; very few players have his combination of patience and passing vision, and he frequently “passes cutters open” when they’re barely even expecting the ball:

His passing acumen allows Moser to run most of the offense through him and still have an efficient attack. Per Synergy, the Ramblers ranked 31st nationally in percentage of possessions that included a post up (either a shot, turnover, or pass out), and they ranked in the 91st percentile on such plays, largely thanks to Krutwig. It’s not often a 255-pounder ranks 52nd in the entire country in assist rate; he’s essentially playing quarterback — the Jared Lorenzen of college hoops.

You can’t zone Loyola, either, because the lineup is flush with lethal shooters at nearly every spot on the court. Most notable is Tate Hall, who arrived from Division II and made third team all-conference. The smooth lefty can score from all over, surprisingly showing a knack for getting to the free throw line in addition to his shooting prowess. Keith Clemons missed the first eight games of the season with injury, but he quickly made an impact upon returning, and his 45.6% three-point shooting certainly didn’t hurt. Marquise Kennedy and Lucas Williamson are more known for their defensive abilities, but both guys can hit an open shot if needed, and Clemons and Kennedy are both terrific slashers, as well. Lanky forward Aher Uguak is the only non-shooter in the rotation (other than Krutwig), and he was often sloppy with the ball when he did get touches, but he somewhat makes up for his shortcomings via terrific cutting.

As if they needed more perimeter help, the Ramblers also get Cooper Kaifes back from a season-ending injury, who shot 46.4% from deep in 2018-19, and add Braden Norris from Oakland, a small but savvy point guard who shot a ho-hum 47.8% from deep during his own most recent season. Distributing minutes among so many worthy candidates will be a challenge, but you certainly won’t hear Moser complaining about this particular problem.

With so much shooting spreading the floor, it’s no wonder Krutwig and the drivers found plenty of chances to get inside; Loyola ranked 6th nationally in frequency of shots attempted at the rim, per Hoop-Math. On the other end, they’re hyper aware of Krutwig’s, erm, “vertical limitations,” and Moser’s man-to-man scheme does a tremendous job of taking away the rim. In fact, Loyola leads the country in “rim discrepancy,” a.k.a. the margin between shots taken at the rim and shots allowed there:

The scheme has some pack line-ish aspects to it, and Loyola is an absolutely outstanding transition defense. Moser knows his own personnel, though, so he unleashes Williamson and Kennedy, both of whom ranked in the top 130 nationally in steal rate. Williamson was an all-defense selection last year, and it would not be a surprise to see Kennedy join him on that honorary squad this year.

Krutwig and his backup, Franklin Agunanne, are both tremendous on the defensive glass, helping Loyola rank 21st nationally as a team in defensive rebound rate. In fact, the only thing really stopping the Ramblers from being statistically elite defense was the scorching perimeter shooting of their opponents. Foes made 36.9% of their triples, ranking Loyola 325th in 3P% defense, a far cry from the Final Four season, when opponents shot 32.0% from a shorter line (22nd nationally). If that number regresses to the mean – or even sinks to 2018 levels – Loyola could have one of the nation’s best defenses.  

Bottom Line: Everything Loyola did well last year appears highly sustainable – Krutwig is going to be a load in the paint, and the defensive scheme puts the individual players in great spots to succeed. Moser has proven that with the right roster blend, he can elevate Loyola into rarefied air, and this edition has, at the very least, the potential to reach such heights. Whether the Ramblers do or not depends on whether they can make opponents more uncomfortable from beyond the arc and if a full season of Clemons (plus Norris and Kaifes) can help the offense take better care of the ball. Loyola and UNI appear to be a notch above the rest of the competitive MVC, and I would not fault you for riding with either school as the preseason favorite.

2. Northern Iowa

Key Returners: AJ Green, Trae Berhow, Austin Phyfe, Tywhon Pickford, Antwan Kimmons, Noah Carter
Key Losses: Isaiah Brown, Spencer Haldeman
Key Newcomers: Tytan Anderson, Nathan Heise, Cole Henry (redshirt), Bowen Born

Lineup:

Outlook: Just as many suspected, a Missouri Valley team clearly distinguished itself from the rest of the conference, creating 50-spot gap in KenPom’s rankings between itself and the second-ranked squad and peaking as high as 35th. What wasn’t expected was for that team to be Northern Iowa, who finished a distant third in the MVC preseason poll, rather than Missouri State, who claimed 29 of 44 first place votes and was the unquestioned preseason favorite. The Purple Panthers used a lethal offense and a solid defense to methodically creep into national relevance, though we’ll never know if a crushing 21-point defeat in the Arch Madness quarterfinals (at the hands of a Drake team that UNI had beaten by 27 just 6 days prior) would have kept them out of the NCAA Tournament.

Obviously, UNI exceeded expectations, particularly on the offensive end, which helped it go 19-9-1 ATS (67.9%) and 18-11 on over/unders (62.1% to the over). The Panthers were one of the country’s truly elite three-point shooting teams, sinking 38.6% of their attempts while taking over 41% of their field goals from distance. Several deadly snipers return, most notable among them being league Player of the Year AJ Green, the team’s offensive power plant and one of the highest-usage players in the entire country. Upon Green’s arrival last year, Ben Jacobson smartly shifted his offense to put his star in advantageous situations, specifically running a ton of dribble handoffs to allow Green to use his crafty movement and dribble maneuvers to constantly create openings. His partner for such actions became Austin Phyfe, a touted big man who missed most of 2018-19 with injuries, and both players’ fingerprints are all over the resulting change in style:

Green’s mastery of handoffs (and isolations and pick-and-rolls) was something to behold, expertly winding his way around Phyfe’s sizable presence to create the slightest of openings. That’s all he needs to get his high releasing jumper off, and he uses a devastating change of pace to get to the rim:

He was also plenty comfortable just parking behind Phyfe if the defender lost his mind and went underneath, and Green hit 85 triples at 39% for the year, especially impressive when considering how difficult many of those shots were. Incoming recruit Bowen Born will be his protégé, a prolific scorer and in-state product, though the lefty’s minutes will likely be few and far between unless his shooting makes it impossible to not get him on the court alongside Green.

Phyfe was pivotal in unlocking the UNI barrage, as he ranked just behind Green in assist rate and completely dominated the offensive glass (22nd nationally in offensive rebound rate). He drew attention into the paint, be it via those second shot opportunities or on post ups, and he was meticulous in picking out any of the Panthers’ pinpoint perimeter marksmen. Versatile wing Tywhon Pickford was nearly as crucial in turning the offensive glass into a strength for perhaps the first time ever in Jacobson’s 14-year tenure.

Trae Berhow was the most ruthlessly efficient of those shooters, shooting 41.8% from deep and ranking 47th nationally in true shooting percentage. Spencer Haldeman, another ace spot up guy, graduated, which means Nathan Heise will have a chance to play right away. Heise is a big guard and effortless shooter, so he could even challenge for a starting spot (sophomore Antwan Kimmons will also be in consideration). Noah Carter mostly added a stretch five option behind Phyfe last year, but he may play alongside the big man this year thanks to his shooting touch. The other big perimeter loss is Isaiah Brown, a solid shooter in his own right, but his most valuable contributions came on the other end.

Brown was the MVC Defensive Player of the Year, capable of guarding four (and sometimes five) positions effectively, and a perfect fit within Jacobson’s pack line scheme. Brown challenged everything, and he would often simply erase the opponent’s best perimeter player from the game. Freshman Tytan Anderson enters with a similarly hyper-competitive reputation – “he wants to guard the other team's best player and refuses to back down from any challenge,” says Jacobson – and he should earn time thanks to that mentality. He won’t be Brown right away, but his defensive ceiling is quite high.

Speaking of erasing – Jordan Majewski used to say UNI’s defense “shut down areas of the court entirely” (I’m doing my best attempt at paraphrasing from memory), a great way of describing how the pack line pushed opponents into uncomfortable mid-range areas and into long possessions ending in difficult, often forced shots. Look at the defensive play breakdown and how similar it is to Virginia’s nationally-renowned pack line:

As you can see above, both teams dominated the defensive glass; Phyfe and Pickford were equally impressive on this end of the floor, and Berhow rebounds well for a wing, too. UNI never concedes easy points, making foes earn everything by making jump shots over the top, and teams that cannot do that will struggle mightily to score if the Panthers are locked in.

Bottom Line: UNI’s offense was top-25 good, per KenPom’s AdjOE, but the sustainability of that hinges heavily on continuing to shoot lights out from deep. With Green and Phyfe still around to play their two-man game, the offense wouldn’t fall too far even if the wing gunners descend towards “average,” and Jacobson’s pack line creates a stable floor on the defensive end, as well. Losing Brown is huge, though, given his ability to shut down opposing stars on a near-nightly basis. Still, UNI is clearly one of the top two squads in the Valley, and though there is risk of falling off from last year’s incredible success, the Panthers have the top-shelf pieces to once again flirt with an at-large bid if things break right for them.

Tier 2

3. Bradley

Key Returners: Elijah Childs, Ja’Shon Henry, Danya Kingsby, Ville Tahvanainen, Ari Boya
Key Losses: Darrell Brown, Nate Kennell, Koch Bar
Key Newcomers: Sean East (UMass), Terry Nolan Jr. (George Washington), Kevin McAdoo (Eastern Michigan), Connor Linke, Darius Hannah

Lineup:

Outlook: Following a second straight MVC tournament title and a third straight 20+ win season, it’s nearly impossible to call the Brian Wardle hire anything but a success in Peoria. Though the Braves did not get to enjoy another trip to the NCAA Tournament, they’ll always have the magical run through Arch Madness to look back on, and Wardle has built up the program to the point of competing in the upper half of the Valley on an annual basis. This year should be no different, as the Braves have a strong collection of returning players and impact newcomers with which they can make a run at a third straight Arch Madness crown, though perhaps not quite the expectation level of the two teams up in Tier 1.

Consistency on the defensive end has been a pillar for the Bradley resurrection. Wardle runs mostly man-to-man, though he is more than willing to mix in zone against the right opponents, and his style forces foes to hit jump shots to score. Bradley ranked 4th nationally in limiting opponents’ shots at the rim, per Hoop-Math, and Wardle has repeatedly found massive big men capable of dominating the paint, both via protecting the rim and controlling the defensive glass.

Koch Bar is gone, but Ari Boya is a tower of terror, blocking 16.3% of shots when on the court, which would have led the country if he played more minutes. Of course, part of why he didn’t play more minutes is because he committed 7.5 fouls per 40, but in his third year and as the primary center, he should be able to corral his hacking somewhat. Elijah Childs is a beast in his own right, a burly forward capable of playing center when Boya is inevitably in foul trouble, and foes shot a laughable 37.8% from inside the arc against Bradley when those two shared the court.

Wardle will also hope to get some minutes from redshirt freshman Rienk Mast or true freshman Connor Linke, though their development is more important in a long-term sense.

Childs, Boya, and versatile forward Ja’Shon Henry also play key roles on the other end, as the Braves get a considerable amount of offense via second chances (65th nationally in offensive rebound rate). All three are physical and aggressive, which helps create opportunities for put-backs and kick-out threes to the team’s shooters. Additionally, Childs was the team’s only true post up threat, and his impact was obvious - these on/off numbers only include the games in which he played:

Bradley shot 51.0% on 2P field goals with Childs on the court; that plummeted to 42.0% when he sat.

The Braves’ perimeter potency takes a hit with the departure of Nate Kennell, a truly elite shooter (84 makes at 44.2%). Bradley also ranked 8th in the entire country in the country in percentage of shots from the mid-range, so losing a sharpshooter like Kennell will be magnified by shot selection concerns. Fortunately, Finnish sophomore Ville Tahvanainen can ascend into the Kennell role, and he connected on 38.5% of his triples (and that rose to a scalding 46.8% in conference play). Two sit-out transfers, Terry Nolan and Kevin McAdoo, offer additional perimeter punch, with Nolan a candidate to battle for a starting spot.

We’ve come all this way without mentioning the loss of Bradley’s heart-and-soul, Darrell Brown, who started 128 games at point guard during a decorated four-year career. Wardle’s offense is heavy on pick-and-rolls, relying on his guards to create decent first shot opportunities. Danya Kingsby was largely a secondary ball-handler last year, but he can shoulder more creative responsibilities, and Bradley also got a waiver for Sean East to play right away after transferring from UMass. East was a prolific passer in Amherst, ranking 25th nationally in assist rate, though that number was slightly inflated by playing with a monster scorer in Tre Mitchell. Still, he makes solid reads and can deliver the ball into tight windows:

It’s easy to envision a pass like that going to Childs, and East’s self-creation and turnovers should improve in his second year, as is the case for most sophomore PGs. Speaking of which, returner Antonio Thomas will battle East for playing time, though Thomas was horrendous in limited freshman minutes.

Bottom Line: The three departures (Brown, Kennell, Bar) hurt, but Wardle has done a great job of securing what should be natural replacements for each one (East, Tahvanainen, Boya). The offense has multiple ball-handlers once again, and although the proliferation of mid-range jumpers limits the ceiling, the collection of offensive rebounders raises the floor, as well. The defense could be excellent if Boya can stay on the floor for extended stretches, though Wardle’s scheme will always be vulnerable to hot shooting nights from foes because of the volume of jumpers it surrenders. Ultimately, the pieces are here to make a run at a third straight MVC Tournament crown, but Bradley starts a couple steps behind the lead dogs in Loyola and UNI.

4. Indiana St.

Key Returners: Tyreke Key, Jake LaRavia, Tre Williams, Cooper Neese
Key Losses: Jordan Barnes, Christian Williams, Bronson Kessinger
Key Newcomers: Tobias Howard (Towson), Nick Hittle, Randy Miller Jr. (NC Central), Julian Larry, Kailex Stephens (JUCO), Jared Hankins (redshirt), Ndongo Ndaw (JUCO)

Lineup:

Outlook: In the face of impatient whispers among the Indiana State fanbase, Greg Lansing answered the bell with the school’s first over-.500 season in the MVC since 2015 (first overall since 2014). He now enters the final year of his contract, one he believes would have been bought out were it not for the school’s bargain basement basketball budget (last in the MVC):

“If they had the money, they would have bought me out three years ago…Hopefully this year or next year, I can get an extension because everybody is using that against us in recruiting.” – Greg Lansing to The Athletic’s Bob Kravitz in February 2020

No such extension has come mid-COVID, which means it’s another “prove it” year for Lansing, especially with a new AD itching to make a hire of his own. Fortunately, the roster is set up for success, with an established star scorer, rising young talent, and potential impact newcomers all giving Lansing the chance to earn that deal.

The Sycamores run a motion-heavy offense designed to get scorer Tyreke Key in space or to isolate big men Tre Williams and Jake LaRavia on the block. The first part of that worked out great – Key ranked 11th in the MVC in true shooting percentage, and his sturdy 205-pound frame and smooth perimeter jumper made him a tough matchup. He’s a surefire all-conference performer, but he’ll have to repeat that performance without three-year starter Jordan Barnes setting him up from the point guard spot. Key actually dominated in (very) limited pick-and-roll sets last year (scored in the 99th percentile, per Synergy), and seeing Lansing give him a few more reps there would be a welcome sight, especially with the lead guard spot being a question mark.

Towson transfer Tobias Howard offers some hope to be a reasonable Barnes replacement, though he had some efficiency issues when he last played in 2018-19. Howard can be a solid creator and shot-maker, and if the Sycamores have to ask too much of backup PG and former UMES transfer Cam Bacote, that’s a problem. Freshman Julian Larry is the PG of the future, and he’ll battle Bacote for minutes.

The issue with the offense was the young post players, who struggled to score on the block against more seasoned defenders. Williams ranked in the 38th percentile nationally on post ups, with LaRavia right behind him in the 37th percentile, and that’s not good enough if it’s going to be a featured part of the attack. Both have the strength and skill to improve significantly in year two, though, and both players (LaRavia in particular) attack the glass to create extra possessions. Interestingly, the Sycamores were best when the two shared the court, especially with the way they controlled the paint:

LaRavia’s burgeoning outside stroke could be a tantalizing new weapon, as well – he hit seven triples in the season’s final five games, a significant note after he made just four through the first 26 contests. Lansing also added a promising big man in Nick Hittle, a 6’10 lefty from Culver Academy (played with IU recruit Trey Galloway) who can knock down outside shots and provide some quality backup minutes (the bottom row above should highlight the necessity of that).

Spacing around the Sycamores’ motion attack should be solid, with Cooper Neese and NC Central transfer Randy Miller Jr. both being proven outside threats. Miller is intriguing after a stellar ‘18-19 campaign, but this is where you point out the concern that ISU will have two former MEAC players in its rotation. Sophomore Cobie Barnes faded in and out of Lansing’s rotation last year, but he has size and shooting potential, and he’ll battle for minutes with JUCO transfer Kailex Stephens, who brings a similar game to the table. Redshirt freshman Jared Hankins is similar to Key: a well-built guard with an oustside shooting stroke, though he may be a year away from really contributing.

Defensively, Lansing runs a fairly standard man-to-man, though his team has gotten in trouble in recent years by over-extending and fouling too much. If nothing else, Howard should be a positive addition here as a bigger, more physical guard than Barnes, and Howard played for a tough-minded coach at Towson in Pat Skerry. ISU will constantly emphasize the defensive glass, and as seen above, the Sycamores function best with both sophomore big men playing together; the two ranked 3rd and 4th in the MVC in block rate.

Bottom Line: Key is a great building block for a quality offense, and if Williams and LaRavia both improve as most freshmen-to-sophomores do, the Sycamores should have a quality inside-out attack. Howard’s play at point guard is one of the biggest swing factors in the entire MVC, capable of pushing the Sycamores ahead of Bradley and making them a light threat to the powerful top two. If he isn’t able to assimilate to the offense, though, ISU could be passed by several of the other middle-tier teams, which would be a calamitous sign for Lansing’s bid to remain the boss in Terre Haute.

5. Drake

Key Returners: Roman Penn, D.J. Wilkins, Garrett Sturtz, Jonah Jackson, Noah Thomas, Tremell Murphy
Key Losses: Liam Robbins (transfer), Anthony Murphy
Key Newcomers: Tank Hemphill (Green Bay), Jordan Kwiecinski, Bryceson Burns, Nate Ferguson (redshirt), Issa Samake (redshirt), Darnell Brodie (Seton Hall)***

*** - needs a waiver to play right away

Lineup:

Outlook: Following a 2019 season in which Darian DeVries completely blew away any expectations –second 20-win season since 1971! Coach of the Year! ATS record of 24-7-1, best in the country! – the anticipation for Drake hoops was much higher last year. However, due to a couple adverse events (noted below), the season was rather tumultuous, and the Bulldogs finished a lowly 8th in the 10-team MVC. And yet…the Bulldogs still won 20 games again and made a run to the Arch Madness semifinals, blowing the doors off the #1 seed, Northern Iowa, in a shocking quarterfinal beatdown, so it’s not like it could be framed as a truly bad year.

Plenty of pieces return, including the one responsible for most of the strangeness around the Bulldogs’ 2018-19 campaign. Tremell Murphy was suspended to start the year for accidentally discharging a legally-owned firearm at a house party – a shot that struck the head of an unsuspecting party-goer. He returned for the team’s Thanksgiving tournament but suffered a knee injury five games later, ending his season, earning him a medical redshirt and a chance at redemption after a terrifying off-court arc. When healthy, he’s a versatile, athletic forward who can beat bigger opponents with his quickness, and his outside shot was slowly developing as well.

The other big difference between 2019 and 2020 was a more normal, on-court variety of change: the shooting of Drake’s opponents. In DeVries’ first season, foes shot an abysmal 30.0% from deep, the 16th-lowest rate in the country; last year, that number shot up to 37.2%, 330th, and that’s despite the line moving back. Considering how similar Drake played on D and the carry-over in personnel, that’s mostly bad luck, and a reversion to somewhere near the national average (33.3%) will be a major boost.

Unfortunately, the defense may fall off in other areas. For two straight years, DeVries has had the luxury of an elite anchor in the paint; Nick McGlynn won the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award in 2019, while Liam Robbins was first-team all-defense last year and may have won the award if Drake had performed better as a team. The 7-foot Robbins transferred to Minnesota to play for his uncle, leaving a major hole in the heart of the Bulldogs’ defense:

Seton Hall transfer Darnell Brodie would be a massive addition as a high-energy garbage man with plenty of size, but he needs a waiver to play right away, and without him, Drake’s heaviest player is 6’0 guard Joseph Yesufu (215 pounds).

The frontcourt would likely be forced to go small, with Murphy, Green Bay grad transfer Tank Hemphill, and unproven redshirt freshmen Issa Samake and Nate Ferguson. Hemphill is an active 6’6 ‘tweener, but he missed all of last season with a knee injury, meaning Murphy’s 88 minutes in five games is all this group managed. True freshman Jordan Kwiecinski stands 6’8, taller than any of those four, but he’s much more of a thin shooter than a true big man.

With more speed on the court, the offense should be able to spread teams out and drive on them, featuring maestro Roman Penn facilitating everything. Penn exploded in the MVC Tournament, averaging 21.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 7.0 APG in the final two games, and he ranked 10th in the entire country in assist rate for the full season. He excelled in DeVries’ system, capable of creating for himself when necessary, but he prefers to spray passes all over the court out of the PnR. Fortunately, he has several potent options on the perimeter:

That’s Jonah Jackson, and check out the way DeVries has him cut up from the block to the top of the key, sucking his defender into helping in the PnR action. Jackson is the epitome of a shooter – he took 152 threes and made zero (0) twos last season. D.J. Wilkins is a more versatile threat, although his development stalled after a highly promising freshman campaign, and Noah Thomas gives the Bulldogs an excellent option off the bench.

If the team does indeed have to play small, the Bulldogs are fortunate to have one of the country’s most unique players: walk-on Garrett Sturtz. He’s a fascinating player – he stands 6’3, 175 pounds, and he looks like this:

Gotta be a shooter, right? Wrong, and emphatically so. Sturtz was one of the MVC’s best two-way rebounders, ranking 14th and 8th in offensive and defensive rebounding rates, respectively, and leading the entire conference – and ranking 3rd nationally – in 2P%. His secret: he’s a brilliant cutter, constantly catching the defense looking the wrong way, and his non-stop motor and tremendous instincts make him a truly delightful player to watch.  

Bottom Line: With (hopefully) fewer distractions, Drake has the potential to vault back up the standings in year three of the DeVries era, although the possible lack of an interior presence means he’ll have to find a different way to get it done. Penn is a great place to start, and the Bulldogs will be a pain to play against with all of the speed and skill they can put on the floor. DeVries will need to find a way to deal with the conference’s outstanding big men (Krutwig, Phyfe, Childs) while sticking to his man-to-man guns (99.9% of the time, per Synergy), but he’s as good a bet as any coach to solve that issue.

6. Southern Illinois

Key Returners: Marcus Domask, Lance Jones, Trent Brown
Key Losses: Eric McGill, Barret Benson, Aaron Cook (grad transfer), Ronnie Suggs, Harwin Francois (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Jakolby Long (Southern Utah), Ben Harvey (Eastern Illinois), Anthony D’Avanzo (Division II), JD Muila (JUCO), Dalton Banks, Eric Butler, Chris Cross, Steven Verplancken (Division II)***

*** - needs a waiver to play right away

Lineup:

Outlook: Southern Illinois had no business being respectable last year. The team lost four key starters from a solid 2019 roster, and starting point guard Aaron Cook got hurt after just six games and never returned (he has since grad transferred to Gonzaga, if that gives you an indication of his talent). That left new coach Bryan Mullins to piece together a rotation with freshmen and lightly-regarded grad transfers, and SIU ranked 341st nationally in minutes continuity. Somehow, the Salukis climbed all the way to 15-10 (9-3 in the MVC) in early February before a late season swoon, and Mullins looks like a fantastic hire based on the early returns.

Make no mistake about it: SIU won because of its defense. Mullins played exclusively man-to-man, and he slowed the tempo to a grinding halt, ranking 337th nationally in tempo, with the intent of forcing foes to score in the half court. It took a little bit, but the Salukis bought in, and the defense saw a clear rise as the year progressed:

The scheme is a big part of it, and SIU had a solid group of lanky guards that could run foes off the three-point line and challenge shots. The rotation undergoes some turnover, but sophomores Lance Jones and Trent Brown seemed to fit in well, and transfers Jakolby Long and Ben Harvey both have the size at 6’5 to make an impact if they pick up on the system. Freshman Eric Butler comes with a defensive stopper mentality after being a complementary piece on excellent Orlando Christian Prep teams, and he may earn minutes for that alone.

Losing Barret Benson as a centerpiece in the paint will hurt, as well, and Mullins will hope that freshman Kyler Filewich and JUCO transfer J.D. Muila can fill that void. They’re different players – Filewich is a thick big man who wins more with positioning, while Muila is a rangy, mobile forward who lacks Benson’s size – but one or both will need to play. Sekou Dembele, a similar player to Muila, flashed potential in very limited minutes last year, but he’ll need to develop quite a bit to earn more time.

The other option is to lean more into the offensive end, playing a stretch big at center in Division II transfer Anthony D’Avanzo. He’s thin, but he battled on the glass at Lewis University (8.4 RPG), and his ability to shoot (55 threes at 40%) would really open the floor up for Jones and Marcus Domask, the team’s rising star sophomores.

Domask burst onto the scene last year, coming to Carbondale as Wisconsin’s 2019 Mr. Basketball and hitting the ground running, racking up 24 points against UTSA in his first game against a Division I opponent. He can score in a variety of ways, whether that be as a spot up threat, a creator with the ball in his hands, or in the post, where he ranked in the 72nd percentile nationally. The Salukis went as he did last year, as evidenced by his pronounced scoring splits in wins compared to losses:

He may have hit a bit of a wall late in the year, tallying just 22 points total in his final four games (all losses), and another year of experience should help him find more consistency.

Despite also being a freshman that started every game once Cook went down, Jones did not hit such a wall, averaging 18.0 PPG over his final six games, nearly doubling his full-season average of 9.3 PPG. He found his perimeter stroke as the year went on, and he should take over as the team’s primary full-time ball-handler following Cook’s transfer and Eric McGill’s graduation. He had the typical turnover struggles for a young guard, but we can expect those to ease in his second campaign.

Another freshman from Wisconsin, Dalton Banks, may give Mullins the luxury of playing two lead guards at times. Banks can score, but he’s more comfortable as a pass-first leader, and the Salukis will need a couple of the other newcomers to emerge as wing threats to make that possible. Long and Harvey have the most experience, though Long has never lived up to his pedigree (a 4-star recruit at Iowa State in 2016), while Harvey struggled with efficiency at a lower level at Eastern Illinois.

Bottom Line: The Salukis will still be quite young, relying heavily on two sophomores for their offense, and Banks should have a major impact as a freshman, as well. The route to another upper-middle finish in the MVC is via the defense, where Mullins’ sound man-to-man creates a strong baseline for success. The questions in the paint need to be answered, but as long as the team makes an effort to learn the scheme and play it with discipline, SIU will once again be a pain to play against.

7. Missouri St.

Key Returners: Gaige Prim, Isiaih Mosley, Ja’Monta Black, Jared Ridder (injury)
Key Losses: Keandre Cook, Tulio Da Silva, Lamont West, Kabir Mohammed, Josh Hall (grad transfer)
Key Newcomers: Demarcus Sharp (JUCO), Keaton Hervey (JUCO), Nic Tata (JUCO), Skylar Wicks, Raphe Ayers, Melvyn Ebonkoli, Dawson Carper (Hawaii)***

*** - needs a waiver to play right away

Lineup:

Outlook: Let the 2019-20 Missouri State season be a cautionary tale for all who follow college hoops: the games are not played on paper, and accumulating an excess of talent is nowhere near a guarantee of success. After Coach Dana Ford brought in a bunch of key pieces, the Bears became the preseason MVC favorite by default, featuring transfers from such schools as West Virginia, Xavier, South Florida, Middle Tennessee, and Nevada (plus the #2 JUCO prospect). It seemed like the Bears would just overwhelm teams, but that did not happen. The roster never came together into a cohesive unit, sputtering its way to an entirely forgettable 16-17 (9-9) campaign (though the Bears did go 20-12-1 ATS). With many of those transfers now gone, Ford faces a different challenge, but one he may welcome after the weight of expectations buried the Bears in 2020.

The offense should feature widebody big man Gaige Prim, the aforementioned #2 JUCO prospect in 2019 and an absolute load on the block. Prim was a per-minute monster, leading the MVC in usage rate and scoring in double-figures in 25 of the 28 games he played in despite averaging just 21.7 MPG (he was on a minutes restriction early in the season thanks to a nagging injury). He smartly uses his strength to clear space and draw contact, and he has great touch on jump hooks in the paint. He also showed the ability to beat double-teams with his passing, ranking 15th in the entire MVC in assist rate – not bad for a guy who goes 6’8, 250 pounds. Ford added solid depth this offseason, again via the JUCO ranks, with big man Nic Tata, and Hawaii transfer Dawson Carper could be a waiver candidate considering the pandemic’s impact on travel (though Ford has indicated that won’t be the case).

Missouri State ranked 5th nationally in post ups last year, per Synergy, and that should continue with a brute force like Prim on the block (plus Tata and maybe Carper). The team shifted away from pick-and-roll, particularly when starting point guard Tyrik Dixon tore his labrum in late January, after using it in heavy doses in 2018-19. JUCO transfer Demarcus Sharp should steady the attack, a dynamic big guard who averaged 5.6 APG at Colby College last year. He’s a key addition at what was an unsettled position: promising sophomores Ja’Monta Black and Isiaih Mosley were more effective off the ball as complementary shooters. Of the two former high school teammates, Mosley has higher upside (scored in double-figures in eight straight games in December/January), but he often clashed with Ford over what his role should be. Freshman Sidney Wicks should earn some playing time if ready; at 6’6, he fits Ford’s bill as a big and athletic lead guard who has plenty of defensive upside.

The Bears are constantly fighting an uphill battle offensively, though, thanks to their shot selection. Missouri State ranked dead last in the country in percentage of shots taken at the rim, per Hoop-Math, while ranking 2nd in most shots taken from the mid-range. That puts a ceiling on the offense; even when those shots are going in at a solid rate (and they did: MO State ranked 29th on FG% on those mid-range jumpers), they’re simply less valuable than actually getting to the rim. Interestingly, the defense seemed to fully understand the math of shot selection, similarly taking away the rim and forcing jumpers. Thus, Missouri State games became mid-range contests:

Considering the Bears’ rim defense ranked 343rd nationally in FG%, keeping foes away from there at all costs was a smart strategy. Prim is not vertically explosive, and while Tata and Carper could help somewhat, this will remain a concern in 2020-21. Ford is always willing to go zone for stretches, but in a league flush with shooting like the MVC, that can be a dangerous dance.

The X-factor for this roster is Jared Ridder, a talented and smooth-shooting forward who has struggled mightily to get on the court during his college career (played six minutes last year before succumbing to a shoulder injury, sat half the year in 2018-19 after transferring from Xavier). He can help open up the floor for Prim and Sharp to operate and would be a potent weapon in pick-and-pop sets. Ford found some insurance at the position in yet another touted JUCO transfer, Keaton Hervey, a bouncy athlete who would be more of a cutting and slashing threat. The two could wind up starting alongside each other if Ford opts for a bigger lineup, likely moving Black to the bench. Fellow freshman Melvyn Ebonkoli comes from prestigious Putnam Science Academy, and the French forward could see time off the bench (and becomes vital if Ridder can’t get healthy).

Bottom Line: With lower expectations and a clearer pecking order, the Bears could have some “addition by subtraction” effects, but it’s more likely that losing talented players like Keandre Cook and Tulio Da Silva leads to a slight step back. Prim should have a monster season (something like 19 PPG and 8 RPG is definitely on the table), and the Bears should continue to be excellent on the glass on both ends of the floor. The upside lies with Sharp and the sophomore guards giving Ford some real perimeter scoring juice, and if Ridder can open up the court, perhaps the Bears can climb to 3rd in the MVC. Anything higher than that is probably wishful thinking, though.

8. Valparaiso

Key Returners: Mileek McMillan, Donovan Clay, Ben Krikke, Daniel Sackey, Nick Robinson, Eron Gordon
Key Losses: Javon Freeman-Liberty (transfer), Ryan Fazekas, John Kiser
Key Newcomers: Goodnews Kpegeol (JUCO), Connor Barrett, Sheldon Edwards Jr., Jacob Ognacevic

Lineup:

Outlook: This Valparaiso squad appeared primed for its best season since joining the MVC, returning five guys who started more than half of the 2020 season and featuring a legitimate contender for the best player in the conference and all-name team member in Javon Freeman-Liberty. Unfortunately, the devious transfer portal robbed Coach Matt Lottich of his most potent weapon, as Freeman-Liberty opted to move 55 miles northwest and play for Chicago’s Big East team, DePaul. The on/off numbers don’t mark ham as utterly indispensable, but he was the difference between winning (+3 per 100 possessions) and losing (-4 per 100):

Lottich built the offense around Freeman-Liberty, ramping up the tempo and unleashing his prize weapon in isolation. With what will likely be a more balanced offense, expect the Crusaders to revert to something closer to 2018 and 2019, when they ran more pick-and-roll and fed the post. None of the team’s returning big men – Mileek McMillan, Donovan Clay, and Ben Krikke – are true “back to the basket” threats, but they’re all skilled, and each is capable of attacking mismatches. McMillan and Clay each have some “go-to guy” potential, but McMillan will need to find a way to stay on the floor (7.0 fouls per 40 minutes), while Clay needs to play with more physicality in his second campaign. Krikke could emerge into the best of the bunch; he played well late in the year, and the southpaw can be a difficult matchup with his touch and length combination:

This group can also invert the floor, as all three can step out and knock down shots, and freshman Jacob Ognacevic appears to have solid shooting touch, as well. That kind of versatility adds the threat of pick-and-pops to the offense, and it should open driving lanes for slashers like Daniel Sackey, Nick Robinson, and JUCO transfer Goodnews Kpegeol. Sackey will also take over the primary ball-handling duties, using his quickness to get in the lane and draw defenders, where he’s surprisingly comfortable for someone who stands just 5’9. Valpo’s point guard depth is shaky, so Robinson and freshman Sheldon Edwards may end up filling in at times.

The bigs aren’t the only floor spacers, as Lottich is constantly hunting skilled players. Former Seton Hall transfer Eron Gordon became a legitimate threat last year, shooting over 40% from deep, and rookie Connor Barrett is well-known for his smooth release from the perimeter. The Crusaders need to replace JFL’s immense production (19.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 2.2 SPG) by committee, so the entire rotation will be expected to make incremental improvements.

The defense struggled down the stretch last year, but it may not have been entirely the Crusaders’ own fault. Opponents shot 38.3% from deep over the final seven games, a scorching rate that would have ranked Valpo in the country’s bottom 10 if it sustained all year. Lottich plays almost all man-to-man and emphasizes getting out on shooters, so opponents’ perimeter success (36.5%, 318th nationally) may see some regression towards the mean in 2020-21, a decent reason to buy low on Valpo’s defense. However, Freeman-Liberty made a major impact on this end as well, ranking 35th in the entire country in steal rate, and the Crusaders likely won’t be as disruptive without him around.

Bottom Line: Following JFL’s defection up to Big East hoops, Valpo went from a star-led team clearly on an upward trajectory to a collection of solid players with plenty of question marks. Lottich is a smart coach and will put his guys in the right spots, but whether there’s enough individual talent to become a real MVC threat is highly debatable. A lot hinges on the sophomore duo of Clay and Krikke, both of whom had impressive flashes last year, but they’ll need to be more consistent and will face more defensive attention this season. The incoming class seems to offer more solid pieces, meaning the Crusaders should have depth at most spots, and the defense should see a boost this year, but the rest of the “middle tier” Valley squads all have clear all-conference players already in place (Childs, Key, Domask, Penn, Prim), so I’m tentatively starting Valpo at the bottom of that group.

9. Illinois St.

Key Returners: DJ Horne, Keith Fisher III, Antonio Reeves, Dedric Boyd
Key Losses: Zach Copeland, Jaycee Hillsman, Ricky Torres, Rey Idowu (transfer)
Key Newcomers: Josiah Strong (JUCO), Alex Kotov (JUCO), Alston Andrews, Dusan Mahorcic (JUCO), Emon Washington, Howard Fleming Jr., Harouna Sissoko (redshirt), Sy Chatman (UMass)***

*** - needs a waiver to play right away

Lineup:

Outlook: The decline in the Illinois State hoops program the last two seasons has, quite frankly, stumped the Weave. In his first six seasons in Normal, Dan Muller finished inside the KenPom top 150 every time, with three of those inside the top 65. But the Redbirds have tumbled in recent years, falling short of expectations – both our own and the conference’s preseason poll (combination of coaches, SIDs, and media members):

Considering the talent assembled, the 2018-19 result was especially disappointing, but the inability to bounce back in 2020 was similarly concerning. Two years is nowhere near enough to call it a true trend, but it’s alarming to see the Redbirds whiff on preseason expectations in two straight seasons, neither of which were injury-related.

Muller teams have been at their best with a versatile, switchable defense that can also morph into an extended 2-3 zone at times. The 2017 team was the best example of this, rolling out four players from 6’4 to 6’9 that all had a block rate over 3.0% and could guard multiple positions – plus having an elite shot-swatter off the bench in Daouda Ndiaye. In fact, the success of Muller’s defenses has been closely tied to how well his team has been able to defend the rim:

Shot-blocking can serve as a proxy for athleticism on that end, and clearly, the Redbirds have struggled to replicate the success of the mid-2010s. This year’s team has another Ndiaye – Abdou Ndiaye – who can roam the paint (11.0% block rate last year), and JUCO transfers Alex Kotov and Dusan Mahorcic add more size, but the rest of the roster lacks the same kind of multi-positional defenders.

Players like Keith Fisher III and Antonio Reeves appear to have the size to impact the game defensively, but neither of them proved much of a disruptive force. Muller may turn to several other newcomers to see if they can make an impact on the defensive end: redshirt freshman Harouna Sissoko, JUCO transfer Josiah Strong, and true freshmen Alston Andrews, Emon Washington, and Howard Fleming. Several will have to play simply due to numbers, but Strong is probably the surest bet, if for no other reason than his skills on the other end of the court.

The Redbirds struggled mightily on offense last year, particularly in their ability to create quality shots in the paint. The loss of Phil Fayne removed their best post up threat, and that caused Muller to lean even harder into his spread pick-and-roll offense. Illinois State ranked 3rd nationally in percentage of plays finished via PnR ball-handler and 15th via roll man, emphasizing just how crucial that action is for the attack. With both primary ball-handlers (Zach Copeland and Ricky Torres) gone, Muller will hope guards like Strong, DJ Horne, and Dedric Boyd can shoulder the burden. Horne has plenty of potential, and he adds the Copeland-esque dimension of being able to pull up from deep if foes go under the screen, but he’ll be undergoing a fairly sizable role change. The offense should get larger contributions from Reeves, a highly-regarded recruit a year ago whose perimeter jumper ran hot and cold last year.

Unfortunately, the Redbirds are constantly fighting an uphill battle in terms of shot distribution. Muller gives his guards immense freedom in those pick-and-roll sets, and the bevy of mid-range pull-ups results in ISU consistently ranking near the bottom of the country in percentage of shots at the rim:

Note: I’m treating high percentages of mid-range shots as “bad” - hence the red coloring.

That all leads to ranking 315th in Dribble Handoff’s Shot Quality metric. Fisher is an active big man on the glass, but even he is guilty of living in the 10-15-foot range, and this is more of a systemic issue than an individual player one. That means that whenever other parts of the attack falter (sloppy with the ball, never getting to the free throw line), the offensive floor is quite low.

Bottom Line: Until the last two years, ISU was a “top-5 MVC team until proven otherwise” in 3MW’s mind. The last two disastrous campaigns, though, have caused us to second-guess that policy. Last year was especially bad, and perhaps that’s what happens when two of your top four scorers are San Jose State transfers. (Note: if any SJSU fan is reading this, tweet at me and I will personally apologize for that uncalled-for pot shot). Given the questions around who creates offense and the defense’s constant decline in recent years, the safer bet has become to keep ISU towards the bottom of the MVC.

Tier 3

10. Evansville

Key Returners: Sam Cunliffe, Noah Frederking, Shamar Givance, Jawaun Newton, Evan Kuhlman
Key Losses: K.J. Riley, Deandre Williams (transfer), John Hall (grad transfer), Art Labinowicz (pro)
Key Newcomers: Samari Curtus (Nebraska)**, Trey Hall, Jax Levitch (UNC Asheville), Emmette Page (JUCO), Iyen Enaruna (JUCO)

** - eligible at semester unless he gets a waiver

Lineup:

Outlook: The NCAA record books will show that Evansville did, in fact, win at Kentucky last season, but it feels like it happened 10 years ago – if it happened at all. The Purple Aces lost star forward Deandre Williams to a back injury right after the turn of the calendar to 2020, and though he returned in late February, he was a lesser version of himself. Evansville ended the year on a 19-game losing streak, failing to scrape out even a single solitary victory against Missouri Valley competition. With Williams now gone for good (transferred to Memphis), the evidence simply will not allow me to pick this squad anywhere but last, even though Coach Todd Lickliter now has a full offseason and preseason to install his system and style.

Lickliter took over on January 21st, roughly six months after he retired as an assistant on Walter McCarty’s staff. However, McCarty’s, um, “off-the-court proclivities,” shall we say, led to him being put on administrative leave around Christmas (right before the losing streak started), and Lickliter picked up the whistle a month later. He did manage to make the Aces more competitive after they had lost their first five games without Williams by a combined 110 points, but he couldn’t halt the Aces’ steady decline across rankings:

He will attempt to recreate his efficient Butler offenses from the early-to-mid 2000s, which thrived via crisp motion, taking care of the ball, and efficient shooting

The problem is that McCarty built a roster of athletes to get out in transition and run, rather than skilled shooters. Seniors Noah Frederking and Evan Kuhlman are carry-overs from the Marty Simmons era that ended in 2018, and they’ll be more comfortable in Lickliter’s half court-heavy approach. Frederking is your classic shooting threat – he took 140 threes last year, compared to just 42 twos and 15 free throws. Kuhlman is a stretch big, although he was often forced to guard centers last year, a job for which he is not terribly well-equipped.

That was partially due to big man Peace Ilegomah severely underwhelming expectations after transferring in from Pitt, and if Lickliter can’t coax competent minutes out of him or JUCO transfer Iyen Enaruna, the interior defense is going to be in a world of hurt once again. UNC Asheville grad transfer Jax Levitch is a similar player to Kuhlman, and he’ll add some depth after failing to fit in with the Bulldogs. Trey Hall, an intriguing recruit from Link Year Prep in Branson, MO, offers the most intriguing blend of skill, mobility, and bounce, and it would not be surprising to see him seize a starting spot in the frontcourt early in his career.

The offense also has a go-to guy in Sam Cunliffe, a former Arizona State and Kansas player who has considerable upside as a multi-level scorer. He struggled to make shots last year, though, and he may be one of the players who benefits most from more reps in (and familiarity with) Lickliter’s system. He can be a matchup problem given his size and skill combo, but he needs to be more efficient in his final campaign. Shamar Givance will be tasked with running the offense; he’s a true pass-first point guard, while JUCO transfer Emmette Page offers a more scoring-focused, combo guard-type option. Former four-star guard Samari Curtis could be a difference-maker as a power guard whenever he’s eligible, be that in December or right away if granted a waiver.

The plus side of McCarty’s recruiting is the defensive upside he left behind. Givance is a solid on-ball defender, and players like Cunliffe, Curtis, Jawaun Newton, and Thomasi Gilgeous-Alexander (yes, Shai’s brother) all have considerable physical tools, and Hall adds a switchable element to the frontcourt, as well. A lineup of Givance, Curtis, TGA, Cunliffe, and Hall could really lock foes down. Lickliter’s defenses were all over the place in the past (ranged from 27th to 263rd), but you know you’re getting a conservative man-to-man that wants to control the defensive glass.

Bottom Line: Lickliter feels like a solid, stabilizing hire, but it’s unclear how high the ceiling of this team really is considering the odd fit with the roster and his style (as evidenced by his 0-13 record upon taking over). Hall and Curtis are solid long-term building blocks, but the veterans will need to prove they can adapt to Lickliter to find a way out of the MVC cellar.